Retire at 40: Here’s how

Wednesday, June 13th, 2007

Retire at 40: Here’s how — assuming no taxes, which is a bit of a big “simplification”:

If you were to take 20% of your annual income starting at age 20 and put it in a fund following the S&P 500 Index, that fund continued to grow at the long-term historical rate (12%) and you received a 4% raise each year, you could walk away from your job and live off the interest at age 41 matching your current salary — or quit at 43 and be able to give yourself a 4% “raise” each year from the interest, which is probably the better plan because it combats inflation.

As this spreadsheet demonstrates, a 4-percent annual raise more-or-less doubles your salary over the course of 20 years — and 20-percent savings combined with aggressive 12-percent returns can match that after 20 years:

Starting Salary $30,000
Saving Percentage 20%
Annual Raise 4%
Return 12%
Year Salary Savings Cumulative Returns
1 $30,000 $6,000 $6000 $720
2 $31,200 $6,240 $12,960 $1,555
3 $32,448 $6,490 $21,005 $2,521
4 $33,746 $6,749 $30,275 $3,633
5 $35,096 $7,019 $40,927 $4,911
6 $36,500 $7,300 $53,138 $6,377
7 $37,960 $7,592 $67,106 $8,053
8 $39,478 $7,896 $83,055 $9,967
9 $41,057 $8,211 $101,233 $12,148
10 $42,699 $8,540 $121,920 $14,630
11 $44,407 $8,881 $145,432 $17,452
12 $46,184 $9,237 $172,121 $20,654
13 $48,031 $9,606 $202,381 $24,286
14 $49,952 $9,990 $236,658 $28,399
15 $51,950 $10,390 $275,447 $33,054
16 $54,028 $10,806 $319,306 $38,317
17 $56,189 $11,238 $368,861 $44,263
18 $58,437 $11,687 $424,811 $50,977
19 $60,774 $12,155 $487,943 $58,553
20 $63,205 $12,641 $559,138 $67,097

Spider venom may yield virility

Tuesday, June 12th, 2007

Spider venom may yield virility — and contraception — if it doesn’t kill you first:

Scientists have discovered a potentially marketable contraceptive in the venom of Chile’s black widow spider, whose bite is fatal to many but can also cause prolonged, painful and involuntary erections in men.

The venom of the Latrodectus mactans, a variety of black widow found only in the south of Chile, has spermicidal properties not found in black widows in other regions of the world, Chilean Dr. Fernando Romero said.

A Shocking Idea: Nerves Might Run on Sound, Not Electricity

Monday, June 11th, 2007

A Shocking Idea: Nerves Might Run on Sound, Not Electricity:

Most people know that nerves work by passing electrical currents from cell to cell. But you might be surprised to learn that no one knows exactly how anesthetics stop nerves from carrying pain signals.

That’s why two scientists believe that we really don’t know how nerves work after all.

According to their controversial theory, electricity is just a side effect of how nerves really operate: by conducting high-density waves of pressure that resemble sound reverberating through a pipe.
[...]
For example, the Hodgkin-Huxley model still hasn’t accounted for observations made a century ago by scientists Hans Meyer and Charles Overton. They demonstrated that the strength of an anesthetic could be predicted by its solubility in olive oil rather than its chemical structure. The more soluble the anesthetic, the stronger it was.

Since olive oil is similar to the lipid molecules that make up nerve cells, Jackson and Heimburg started questioning the generally accepted belief that anesthetics block electrical pulses by fitting themselves into pain receptors on cells. That seems next to impossible, they said, because anesthetic molecules come in many shapes and sizes, and it’s difficult to imagine that they all happen to physically fit into all receptors.
[...]
Their theory, published in the Biophysical Journal, explains how nerves and anesthetics work as follows: Nerves are made of lipids that are liquid at body temperature. A yet-to-be-defined mechanism creates high-pressure, semisolid waves that move through the cells, delivering messages.

Anesthetics, they suggest, lower the temperature at which lipids become solid, making it difficult for the waves to form, thereby preventing nerves from sending pain signals. They also suggest that as the waves travel, they change the shape of the cell membrane, producing the electrical pulse that scientists currently mistake for the primary function of nerve cells.

Ritterschlag

Sunday, June 10th, 2007


Ritterschlag is the German word for knighthood. Ritter is a cognate of rider, meaning knight, and schlag can mean hit (as in dub, I believe) — hence the double entendre behind the story.

Anyway, it’s a cute short, even if the “clever” ending isn’t.

Trashing Teens

Sunday, June 10th, 2007

In Trashing Teens psychologist Robert Epstein shares some ideas from his new book, The Case Against Adolescence:

We call our offspring “children” well past puberty. The trend started a hundred years ago and now extends childhood well into the 20s. The age at which Americans reach adulthood is increasing — 30 is the new 20 — and most Americans now believe a person isn’t an adult until age 26.

The whole culture collaborates in artificially extending childhood, primarily through the school system and restrictions on labor.

He makes a point Paul Graham makes too:

We have completely isolated young people from adults and created a peer culture. We stick them in school and keep them from working in any meaningful way, and if they do something wrong we put them in a pen with other “children.” In most nonindustrialized societies, young people are integrated into adult society as soon as they are capable, and there is no sign of teen turmoil. Many cultures do not even have a term for adolescence. But we not only created this stage of life: We declared it inevitable. In 1904, American psychologist G. Stanley Hall said it was programmed by evolution. He was wrong.
[...]
Teens in America are in touch with their peers on average 65 hours a week, compared to about four hours a week in preindustrial cultures. In this country, teens learn virtually everything they know from other teens, who are in turn highly influenced by certain aggressive industries. This makes no sense. Teens should be learning from the people they are about to become. When young people exit the education system and are dumped into the real world, which is not the world of Britney Spears, they have no idea what’s going on and have to spend considerable time figuring it out.

Schadenfreude

Saturday, June 9th, 2007


Even I must admit to a small amount of Schadenfreude over this whole Paris Hilton thing:

“Her medical condition was deteriorating and we didn’t know how to fix it,” Baca, who oversees the county’s jail system, said at a news conference defending his move to place Hilton under house arrest.

“We have her in the correctional treatment center — that is a special wing. I am not going to say exactly what her mental problem is,” he added.

The March of Folly

Saturday, June 9th, 2007

John Jay cites an example of The March of Folly from chemist Derek Lowe:

I’ve worked where the safety culture was limited to occasional warnings not to blow yourself up, and I’ve worked under intrusive, no-sparrow-shall-fall regimes. Neither of those, as far as I could see, kept me safer than the other. The problem is, if you’re going to aggressively document every possible incident and near miss, to be entered into the massive database and discussed in detail at the mandatory regular safety meetings (attendance taken and computed into the year-end bonus formula) … well, people are going to sit on most of the ones that they think that they can get away with. The harder you work to log every lapse, the more of them you’ll miss.

He then cites a scary example before making his point:

So what we have here is failure to communicate. What we also have here is a breakdown in the rule of law caused by too many rules. Before I went to the USSR, I probably would have thought that adding rules to safety regulations would make things safer, because I was acculturated to obey rules, and also predisposed to believe that most rules were instituted with good reason.

However, in the USSR, even people I considered to be decent and good, and — if they were given a chance to live in America — law abiding, regularly talked about breaking laws to me in the USSR. Not just talk — they used to break them, and quite frankly help me break them as well.
[...]
But let’s not kid ourselves with our Anglosphere talk — we in the English speaking world can destroy the unique legacy our culture has bequeathed us by burying individual initiative and the entrepreneurial spirit in a morass of laws. Indeed, much of the West, even Britain by all appearances, is already close to that point.

Requirements Kill

Saturday, June 9th, 2007


Karl Gallagher believes that Requirements Kill:

Aerospace and software engineering have many tales of huge projects that ate incredible amounts of resources and then failed, sometimes completely, sometimes producing something with a fraction of the capability originally desired. There’s a ton of case studies on them, sometimes whole books of them. These get blamed on forcing the technology beyond achievable limits, requirements creep, poor management, lack of resources, etc. I think all of those come down to one problem — too many requirements.

He notes that the most precious resource of a project is the attention of the workers:

Concentrating attention is how the Apollo Program succeeded at its incredibly difficult task. “Man, Moon, decade” was a requirements set that everyone could grasp and apply to the problem in front of them. With a common goal and priorities engineers could trust each other and focus on their own jobs. Apollo proves even a very large project can be at the top of the success curve.

Projects at the bottom of the curve fail in multiple directions. Time spent arguing priorities or struggling with new processes causes schedule delays. The salary hours used add to the cost overruns. Thrashing from repeated changes drives up both. Technical performance suffers because no part of the design gets the attention needed to optimize total system performance. Worse, a conflict between requirements or subsystem designs could be missed, producing a product that doesn’t meet the original need. Actual flying cars have been built but suffer from these requirement conflicts. Their performance is inferior to cars and light planes while costing more than the combined cost of both. Flying car makers have repeatedly gone bankrupt while nearly all Cessna owners also have a car.

When managers realize their projects are in trouble they start climbing the success curve. Cost and schedule requirements fall off the list once they’ve been passed but the design choices that gave up performance for low cost or quick manufacturing are still part of the design. Process requirements are frequently removed informally by paying lip service while bypassing the process steps. Deleting a performance requirement can be essential for getting back on track but can threaten the viability of the project. Removing a feature drives away the customers who wanted that capability. Government projects have their funding cut as stakeholders lose interest. If that doesn’t leave enough money to meet the remaining requirements the project can go into a “death spiral”.

His conclusion:

Too many requirements can kill a project.

Kill them first.

Forest gardening

Friday, June 8th, 2007

Traditional farming is monoculture agriculture — large fields of one species of plant — and ecologists have long considered the alternative of polyculture agriculture, which would be more in line with how plants grow naturally. Forest gardening is one such example:

Forest gardening (also known as 3-Dimensional Gardening) is a food production and land management system based on replicating woodland ecosystems, substituting trees (such as fruit or nut trees), bushes, shrubs, herbs and vegetables which have yields directly useful to mankind. By exploiting the premise of companion planting, these can be intermixed to grow on multiple levels in the same area, as do the plants in a forest.

The Bangor Forest Garden includes plants with many different uses:

All plants in the garden have at least one use, which may include: edible parts (leaves, fruits, seeds, roots, flowers); medicinal uses; dyes; fibers; oils; attract beneficial insects such as pest predators or bees; accumulate or fix nutrients to be used as a mulch. Plants may be traditional fruits, nuts or herbs or may come from temperate regions of other continents.

A forest garden arguably requires less labor, as most plants used are perennial or self-seeding annuals, but it obviously does not lend itself to large-scale mechanization.

Intel’s Think Thin Laptop

Friday, June 8th, 2007

Behold Intel’s Think Thin Laptop:

Behold the Razr of laptops. The thinnest notebook computer ever, this new machine created by Ziba Design and Intel, packs enough futuristic features to make a geek’s head spin.

On the outside, from its no-rim screen to its groovy keyboard, the notebook is gloriously smooth and streamlined. A special accessory — a leather-like folder that wraps around the laptop and attaches with magnets — serves as a wireless charger and an external screen that lets users check e-mail without opening the computer. Add a strap, and the whole thing turns into a bag that can be adorned with a favorite picture on the screen.

Inside, meanwhile, there’s built-in wireless compatibility with WiMax, a speedier, longer-range cousin of Wi-Fi that’s just starting to reach the market.

A version of this laptop could be sold by a yet-unnamed manufacturer as early as this fall.

It sounds intriguing, and the accessory obviously points to a new target market for notebook computers.

California Approves Cow Power Project

Friday, June 8th, 2007

California Approves Cow Power Project — and the power does not come from putting cows in giant hamster wheels hooked up to generators:

The California Public Utilities Commission on Thursday gave the green light for Bakersfield startup BioEnergy to supply up to 3 billion cubic feet of bovine biogas — methane extracted from cow manure — to utility PG&E (PCG). [...] California’s nearly 2 million cows, most living on industrial-scale dairies, create a huge and costly waste problem. According to the PUC order approving the BioEnergy deal, a single thousand-pound dairy cow each day produces 10 pounds of “volatile solids” — that’s bureaucratese for poop — which can be transformed into 72 cubic feet of biogas. Dairy owners can dispose of that burden, clean up the environment and turn crap into cash by cutting deals with companies like BioEnergy. PG&E benefits as the biogas produced counts toward a state mandate that it obtain 20 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2010.

Extra Virgin Anti-Inflammatories

Friday, June 8th, 2007

Most good science seems to come from an unexpected direction — like Extra Virgin Anti-Inflammatories:

At the 1999 international workshop on molecular and physical gastronomy, in the mist-shrouded mountain town of Erice, Sicily, the physicists Ugo and Beatrice Palma brought along oil freshly pressed from their own trees. Dr. Beauchamp tasted the oil and felt his throat burn, as did I and all the other attendees. But he was the only one who immediately thought of ibuprofen.

Dr. Beauchamp happened to be an ibuprofen connoisseur. He and a Monell colleague, Dr. Paul Breslin, had been trying to help a manufacturer replace acetaminophen with ibuprofen in its liquid cold and flu medicine. The medicine tasted fine until it was swallowed. Consumer panels described the unpleasant sensation as bitterness, but Dr. Beauchamp recognized it as an irritation akin to the pungency of black pepper and chilies, strangely localized to the back of the throat. And he recognized it again in Sicily.

“The moment I felt that burn from Ugo and Beatrice’s oil, I saw the whole picture in my head,” Dr. Beauchamp recalled last week. “There’s a natural analogue of ibuprofen in olive oil, and it could have anti-inflammatory properties, too.”

He, Dr. Breslin and several collaborators confirmed that the pungent substance in olive oil is a phenolic chemical, which they named oleocanthal. And they showed that oleocanthal is even more effective than ibuprofen at inhibiting enzymes in the body that create inflammation. “It took five years of spare-time unfunded research to prove it, but that was some of the best fun I’ve had doing science,” he said.

In their 2005 report to the journal Nature, the team noted that anti-inflammatory drugs like aspirin and ibuprofen appear to have long-term health benefits, including reduction in the risk of some forms of heart disease and cancer. They suggested that the oleocanthal in pungent olive oils might be one of the things that make traditional Mediterranean diets so healthful.

Serious diseases genes revealed

Friday, June 8th, 2007

Serious diseases genes revealed:

The landmark Wellcome Trust study analysed DNA from the blood of 17,000 people to find genetic differences. [...] The £9m Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC) involved 50 leading research groups analysing the DNA from 2,000 patients for each of the seven conditions and 3,000 healthy volunteers.

What did they learn?

One of the most exciting finds was a previously unknown gene common to type 1 diabetes and Crohn’s disease, a type of inflammatory bowel disorder, suggesting that they share similar biological pathways.

The team also unexpectedly found a process known as autophagy — a process of clearing bacteria from within cells — is important in the development of Crohn’s disease.

And in type 1 diabetes, they identified several genetic regions that increase the risk of developing the condition.

The WTCCC project has already played a part in recent reports of an obesity gene, three new genes linked to type 2 diabetes, and a genetic region on chromosome 9 associated with coronary heart disease.

Professor Peter Donnelly, chair of the WTCCC and professor of statistical science at Oxford University, said the research was a “new dawn” and they had learnt more in the past 12 months than they had in 15 years.

Digging the baby carrot

Thursday, June 7th, 2007

In case you didn’t know, baby carrots aren’t babies at all:

They’re grown-up carrots cut into 2-inch sections, pumped through water-filled pipes into whirling cement-mixer-size peelers and whittled down to the niblets Americans know, love and scarf down by the bagful.
[...]
The miniatures — the brainchild of a California farmer tired of discarding imperfect vegetables — have taken a steadily larger market share and now make up a third of sales of fresh carrots, says Philipp Simon, a plant breeder and geneticist who directs the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s vegetable breeding program at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
[...]
It all began about 16 years ago when Mike Yurosek of Newhall, Calif., got tired of seeing 400 tons of carrots a day drop down the cull shoot at his packing plant in Bakersfield. Culls are carrots that are too twisted, knobby, bent or broken to sell. In some loads, as many as 70% of carrots were tossed. And there are only so many discarded carrots you can feed to a pig or a steer, says Yurosek, now 82 and retired. “After that, their fat turns orange,” he says.
[...]
California’s Central Valley is dotted with farms, fruit and vegetable processors, and freezing plants. Yurosek knew full well that freezers routinely cut up his long, well-shaped carrots into cubes, coins and mini-carrots. “If they can do that, why can’t we, and pack ‘em fresh?” he wondered.

First he had to cut the culls into something small enough to make use of their straight parts. “The first batch we did, we did in a potato peeler and cut them by hand,” Yurosek says. Then he found a frozen-food company that was going out of business and bought an industrial green-bean cutter, which just happened to cut things into 2-inch pieces. Thus was born the standard size for a baby carrot.

Next, Yurosek sent one of his workers to a packing plant and loaded the cut-up carrots into an industrial potato peeler to take off the peel and smooth down the edges. What he ended up with was a little rough but still recognizable as the baby carrot of today.

After a bit of practice and an investment in some bagging machinery, he called one of his best customers, a Vons supermarket in Los Angeles. “I said, ‘I’m sending you some carrots to see what you think.’ Next day they called and said, ‘We only want those.’ “

The babies were an economic powerhouse. Stores paid 10 cents a bag for whole carrots and sold them for 17 cents. They paid 50 cents for a 1-pound package of baby carrots and sold them for $1. By 1989, more markets were on board, and the baby-carrot juggernaut had begun.

Today, these babies come from one place: Bakersfield, Calif. The state produces almost three-quarters of U.S. carrots because of its favorable climate and deep, not-too-heavy soil. Every day, somewhere in the state, carrots are either being planted or harvested — last year to the tune of 20 million pounds, says Jerry Munson of the Fresh Carrot Advisory Board.

Outsourcing Your Life

Wednesday, June 6th, 2007

Outsourcing Your Life is looking practical and affordable:

When David San Filippo decided to create a tribute video in honor of his sister’s wedding, he could have gotten a recommendation from a friend or looked up video editors in the phone book. Instead, he did what big corporations have been doing for more than a decade: sent the work offshore.

On the Internet, Mr. San Filippo located a graphic artist in Romania who agreed to do the whole thing for $59. The result was a splashy two-minute video with a space theme and “Star Wars” soundtrack. It won raves at the wedding.

Offshore outsourcing has transformed the way U.S. companies do business. Now, some early adopters are figuring out how to tap overseas workers for personal tasks. They’re turning to a vast talent pool in India, China, Bangladesh and elsewhere for jobs ranging from landscape architecture to kitchen remodeling and math tutoring. They’re also outsourcing some surprisingly small jobs, including getting a dress designed, creating address labels for wedding invitations or finding a good deal on a hotel room, for example.

Such “personal offshoring” is still new and represents a tiny fraction of the more than $20 billion overseas outsourcing industry. But management consultants and economists say it’s likely to evolve into a larger niche as offshore workers identify the opportunities. Thanks to instant messaging, computer scanners and email attachments, any work that doesn’t require meeting in person has the potential to be done overseas.