These “farmer tools” greatly simplified Ford’s machining operations

Sunday, August 31st, 2025

Origins of Efficiency by Brian PotterFord’s status as a large-volume car producer began with the predecessor to the Model T, Brian Potter notes, the Model N, a four-cylinder, two-seater car initially priced at $500:

Many of the Model N’s parts were made of vanadium steel, a strong, lightweight, durable steel alloy. Vanadium steel allowed for a lighter car (the Model N weighed only 1,050 pounds), and was “machined readily.” This was important because Ford also made increasing use of advanced machine tools that allowed it to produce highly accurate interchangeable parts. In 1906, Ford advertised that it was “making 40,000 cylinders, 10,000 engines, 40,000 wheels, 20,000 axles, 10,000 bodies, 10,000 of every part that goes into the car…all exactly alike.” Only by producing interchangeable parts, Ford determined, could the company achieve high production volumes and low prices. Furthermore, Ford’s machine tools were arranged in order of assembly operations rather than by type, allowing parts to move from machine to machine with minimal handling and travel distance. It also made extensive use of production aids such as jigs, fixtures, and templates. These “farmer tools” — so called because they supposedly made it possible for unskilled farmers to do machining work — greatly simplified Ford’s machining operations.

The Model N was so popular that demand exceeded capacity, which allowed Ford to plan production far in advance. This meant Ford could purchase parts and materials in large quantities at better prices and schedule regular deliveries, ensuring a steady, reliable delivery of material, which allowed it to maintain just a 10-day supply of parts on hand.

To build your own drone batteries, you have to source quality cells from a reliable supplier and assemble them into battery packs

Saturday, August 30th, 2025

If you break open a drone battery, David Hambling notes, you will find a shrink-wrapped block containing smaller batteries:

These cells are described by their size, so an 18650 cell is a cylindrical unit about 18 millimeters in diameter and 65 millimeters in height, while a 2170 is 21mm in diameter and 70 mm high.

A typical laptop battery will contain six 18650 lithium-ion cells. The battery pack for a Tesla Model 3 Long Range made before 2018 contains 2170-type cells, no less than 4,416 of them.

While not all cells are created equal, they are essentially commodity products manufactured by the billion. They’re made mainly by big players in the Far East; China dominates but it does not have a monopoly. Other sources are readily available.

The biggest battery maker by capacity is Chinese outfit CATL, making 132 GWH of cells every year. But the next two are South Korean LG (93 GWH) and Japanese Panasonic (60 GWH), and there are two other Korean outfits, Samsung and SK, in the top ten.

To build your own drone batteries, you have to source quality cells from a reliable supplier and assemble them into battery packs. And that is exactly what Ukrainian drone maker Wild Hornets has been doing for some time.

A video on social media explains Wild Hornets’ process. The building blocks for its battery packs are Samsung 50S, which are optimized for high-power applications and have a respectable 5000 mAH capacity.

The cells are arranged in blocks of 12 in a 6s2p unit (that is, 6 rows of 2 batteries) or 18 in 6s3p (6 rows of 3) configuration. These are connected with metal strips and 0.25 mm copper wiring — “we don’t economize” the presenter says in the video — spot welded into place. Spot welding is costlier than soldering, but more reliable. The completed unit is then securely shrink-wrapped with multiple layers of tough plastic.

[…]

The end result costs a total of $65 for small batteries and $90 for large, similar to commercial drone batteries.

Of course, they’re called batteries because they’re collections of smaller cells:

Benjamin Franklin first used the term “battery” in 1749 when he was doing experiments with electricity using a set of linked Leyden jar capacitors. Franklin grouped a number of the jars into what he described as a “battery”, using the military term for weapons functioning together.

The first breeders unsurprisingly selected for temperament

Friday, August 29th, 2025

A couple small mutations helped turn skittish animals into the creatures humans could saddle and ride:

Researchers led by Xuexue Liu and Ludovic Orlando analyzed horse genomes spanning thousands of years, tracking 266 genetic markers tied to traits like behavior, body size, and coat color. Their results, published in Science, suggest that early domestication didn’t begin with flashy coats or taller frames. Instead, the first breeders unsurprisingly selected for temperament.

One of the earliest signals of selection appeared at the ZFPM1 gene, linked in mice to anxiety and stress tolerance. That genetic shift, around 5,000 years ago, may have made horses just a little calmer — tame enough for people to keep close.

But the real game-changer came a few centuries later. Around 4,200 years ago, horses carrying a particular version of the GSDMC gene began to dominate. In humans, variants near this gene are associated with chronic back pain and spinal structure. But for horses and lab mice, the mutation reshapes vertebrae, improves motor coordination, and boosts limb strength. In short, it made horses rideable.

The numbers are staggering. The frequency of the GSDMC variant shot from 1% to nearly 100% in just a few centuries. Laurent Frantz of Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, who wrote an accompanying commentary, calls the selection “almost unprecedented in evolution.” For comparison, the human mutation that lets adults digest milk — a trait with huge survival advantages — spread far more slowly, with a selection strength of only 2–6%.

“The right conditions for the rise of the rideable horse materialized ~3,500 years ago in the Eurasian Steppe, north of the Caspian Sea,” Frantz explained. That’s when local cultures began seeking animals for war and transport rather than food. The genetic stars aligned: rare mutations already present in wild horses met human ambition.

It first reacted with the activated amino acid in water and then slowly transferred that amino acid to RNA

Thursday, August 28th, 2025

Proteins are made of amino acids, which are thought to have been around long before life emerged:

In living organisms today, amino acids combine with RNA to make a protein. But this translation process requires a set of protein enzymes that, paradoxically, are made by protein synthesis. It becomes a chicken or egg problem: How was a protein made without a protein?

[…]

First, the team took an amino acid and “activated it” — basically removing a water molecule, which made it reactive and able to form a bond with other molecules. But the activated amino acid wouldn’t directly bind to RNA in this form. The team needed to find a helper molecule that would aid the amino acid in binding to RNA.

Powner and his colleagues decided to experiment with a class of compounds called thiols, or molecules with a sulfur attached to a carbon. These molecules are better known for their role in energy production and regulation in cells than for protein synthesis, but the team previously found they are fairly easy to make under basic conditions that would have existed on a baby Earth.

When the thiol was introduced, the team found it first reacted with the activated amino acid in water and then slowly transferred that amino acid to RNA. More of these compounds combine and form proteins in cells.

The binding “was very unexpected [and] wasn’t what we set out to achieve,” Powner said. He said this mechanism essentially solves how to initiate protein synthesis without another protein.

“In a scenario where you have amino acids, where you have RNA molecules, if you have thiols — sulfur molecules — this is, I think, almost inevitable that this kind of process can happen,” Powner said.

If you’re not in the meetings, you can’t accurately estimate the relative levels of dishonesty and self-delusion involved

Wednesday, August 27th, 2025

Dominic Cummings discusses preference falsification and Britain’s slide to chaos:

Inside the intelligence services, special forces (themselves under attack from the Cabinet Office and NI Office as they operate as our last line of defence, see below), bits of Whitehall, and those most connected to discussions away from Westminster, there is growing, though still tiny, discussion of Britain’s slide into chaos and the potential for serious violence including what would look like racial/ethnic mob/gang violence, though the regime would obviously try to describe it differently. Part of the reason for the incoherent forcefulness against the white rioters last year from a regime that is in deep-surrender-mode against pro-Holocaust marchers, rape gangs and criminals generally, is a mix of a) aesthetic revulsion in SW1 at the Brexit-voting white north and b) incoherent Whitehall terror of widespread white-English mobs turning political and attracting talented political entrepreneurs. They’re already privately quaking about the growth of Muslim networks. The last thing they want to see is emerging networks that see themselves as both political and driven to consider violence. Parts of the system increasingly fear this could spin out of control into their worst nightmare. In No10 meetings with the Met on riots, I saw for myself a) the weird psychological zone of how much order rests not on actual physical forces but perceptions among a few elites about such forces that can very quickly change, and b) how scared the senior police are at the prospect of crucial psychological spells being broken. We can see on the streets that various forces have already realised the regime will not stop them. What if this spreads? Whitehall’s pathology has pushed it to the brink of this psychological barrier and many of them know it.

Aspects of the situation are tragi-comic. E.g if you talk to senior people in places like UAE, they tell you that bigshots in that region now tell each other — don’t send your kids to be educated in Britain, they’ll come back radical Islamist nutjobs! Our regime has spent thirty years a) destroying border control and sane immigration (including the Home Office’s jihad against the highest skilled, whom they truly loathe discussing and try to repel with stupid fees etc) and b) actively prioritising people from the most barbaric places on earth (hence immigration from the tribal areas most responsible for the grooming/rape gangs keeps rising) and c) funding the spread of those barbaric ideas and defending the organisations spreading them with human rights laws designed to stop the return of totalitarianism in Europe. In parallel, they’ve started propaganda operations with the old media to spread the meme that our ‘real danger’ is the ‘far right’ (code for ‘white people’). As Tories and Labour have continued their deranged trajectory, they have provoked exactly the reactions they most feared including the spreading meme that our regime itself has become our enemy and the growing politicisation of white English nationalism.

These deep state discussions about the growing prospect of violence, like the focus group discussions about ‘civil war’, have seeped through to few MPs or hacks. And the evolution of the Cabinet Office in recent years has excluded ministers, spads and the PM from almost any visibility inside the NSS, the National Security Secretariat of the CO, which has acquired power from the rest of the security/intelligence system and runs a failing empire within a failing empire. When I said in 2020 that, among the general changes to the dysfunctional No10/CO system, the oversight of NSS must change so it became visible and legible again to the PM’s office so we could participate in debates like — what are the actual priorities of the intelligence services vis Putin and Xi — some senior officials tried to pretend that zero political scrutiny of NSS was somehow a constitutional principle. After I left, this system became even more closed and dysfunctional, hence the total lack of true strategic thinking connecting ends-ways-means over Ukraine and all things defence procurement becoming more and more Kafka-esque as the MoD shipped stuff to Ukraine. I repeat: the lack of legibility of the NSS is without historical precedent in the UK for centuries and is related to broader issues of Whitehall’s dysfunction, the disgraceful shambles of the MoD etc.

SW1’s OODA loop has operated for years as a massive denial-of-service-attack on its own perceptions of reality — constant cycles of ephemeral emotional hysteria and Narrative Whiplash while No10 has no capability to execute priorities. A great recent example: Professor Ansell saying that the Zelensky Oval Office interview meant that Farage’s prospects had ‘peaked’ (widely Bluesky’d approvingly!) — an emotional spasm entirely in tune with SW1’s NPC network reflecting OODA-as-DOS-attack. This has, as I’ve argued for years, made it more and more vulnerable to history’s remorseless pattern: slow rot, elite blindness, fast crisis, sudden collapse.

The old parties lost their last chance to fix things in a sort-of normal way when the Trolley and his girlfriend told everyone in 2021 they were going ‘back to normal politics’. SW1 cheered including the Tory MPs who got culled en masse in 2024. Sunak doubled down on optimising for *pats on the head from Permanent Secretaries and lawyers*. After Starmer won, SW1’s NPCs tweeted to each other how they now had ‘serious grownups’ and we’d return to ‘normal government’.

But this was just another cycle of delusional SW1 Narrative Whiplash. The Starmer project blew up on contact with the reality of Whitehall. Now both parties are led by Dead Players. Both old parties are structurally knackered. And the NPCs tweeting ‘hurrah for the grownups, Sue Gray is the Jedi we need’ a few months ago are now Bluesky-ing ‘disgusting rhetoric from Starmer’.

Starmer is speed-running Sunak’s demented combination of a) massively raising the salience of immigration/boats with b) a set of policies that everyone who understands the details knows cannot possibly do what he’s promising.

Why is he doing it? Because, like Sunak, he’s caught between a) political advice that the country is enraged over immigration/boats and wants action, b) the adamantine priority of the dominant faction in Whitehall — i.e the force that actually orients 99% of policy — is maintaining 1) the HRA/ECHR-judicial review system and 2) the cross-party HMT/OBR/university-endorsed immigration/asylum Ponzi. Being a Dead Player optimised to ‘defend the institutions’ at all costs however pathological, Starmer has, aping Sunak, synthesised the political advice of McSweeney and the priority of the officials/lawyers actually running No10/70WH and generated his own version of Sunak’s demented combination.

If you’re not in the meetings, you can’t accurately estimate the relative levels of dishonesty and self-delusion involved.

Portugal does not allow consequence-free drug use

Tuesday, August 26th, 2025

Ever since Portugal enacted drug decriminalization in 2001, reformers have argued that North America should follow suit, but when Oregon and British Columbia decriminalized drugs in the early 2020s, the results were so catastrophic that both jurisdictions quickly reversed course:

Contrary to popular belief, Portugal does not allow consequence-free drug use. While the country treats the possession of illicit drugs for personal use as an administrative offense, it nonetheless summons apprehended drug users to “dissuasion” commissions composed of doctors, social workers, and lawyers. These commissions assess a drug user’s health, consumption habits, and socioeconomic circumstances before using arbitrator-like powers to impose appropriate sanctions.

These sanctions depend on the nature of the offense. In less severe cases, users receive warnings, small fines, or compulsory drug education. Severe or repeat offenders, however, can be banned from visiting certain places or people, or even have their property confiscated. Offenders who fail to comply are subject to wage garnishment.

Throughout the process, users are strongly encouraged to seek voluntary drug treatment, with most penalties waived if they accept. In the first few years after decriminalization, Portugal made significant investments into its national addiction and mental-health infrastructure (e.g., methadone clinics) to ensure that it had sufficient capacity to absorb these patients.

This form of decriminalization is far less radical than its North American proponents assume. In effect, Portugal created an alternative justice system that coercively diverts addicts into rehab instead of jail. That users are not criminally charged does not mean they are not held accountable. Further, the country still criminalizes the public consumption and trafficking of illicit drugs.

[…]

In late 2020, Oregon embarked on its own drug decriminalization experiment, known as Measure 110. Though proponents cited Portugal’s success, unlike the European nation, Oregon failed to establish any substantive coercive mechanisms to divert addicts into treatment. The state merely gave drug users a choice between paying a $100 ticket or calling a health hotline. Because the state imposed no penalty for failing to follow through with either option, drug possession effectively became a consequence-free behavior. Police data from 2022, for example, found that 81 percent of ticketed individuals simply ignored their fines.

Additionally, the state failed to invest in treatment capacity and actually defunded existing drug-use-prevention programs to finance Measure 110’s unused support systems, such as the health hotline.

The results were disastrous. Overdose deaths spiked almost 50 percent between 2021 and 2023. Crime and public drug use became so rampant in Portland that state leaders declared a 90-day fentanyl emergency in early 2024. Facing withering public backlash, Oregon ended its decriminalization experiment in the spring of 2024 after almost four years of failure.

Route march speed was reduced from 7.5 to 5 km/h

Monday, August 25th, 2025

In 1991-1992, a pelvic stress fracture incidence of 11.2% was recorded in a cohort of 143 female Australian Army recruits:

An incidence of 0.1% was recorded in a cohort of male recruits trained in the 1992-1993 year using a nearly identical program. A number of preventive strategies were instituted in an attempt to reduce the high incidence of injury in female recruits. Route march speed was reduced from 7.5 to 5 km/h, running occurred on softer surfaces, individual step length was promoted instead of marching in step, march and run formations were more widely spaced, and interval-running training replaced traditional middle-distance runs. Pelvic stress fracture incidence decreased significantly to 0.6% in an immediately subsequent cohort of 161 female recruits (chi 2 = 15.12 for 1 df; p < 0.001). It is likely that the preventive strategies reduced bone strain by reducing the frequency and forces of impact during the training period.

(Hat tip to Arctotherium.)

How the Voice might work

Sunday, August 24th, 2025

Dune presents an order of highly trained experts in using the Voice, but I’ve seen little discussion of how this might work:

Your tone, pace, and even the pitch of your voice generate psychological responses. We’re wired to respond emotionally even before we process the words.

How to be taken seriously

People perceive lower voices as more confident and trustworthy, because we associate a lower pitch with authority. So, if you want to be taken seriously, like in a negotiation or conflict, drop your pitch just slightly and speak from your diaphragm.

[…]

How to sound in control

Now, if you want to sound in control, speak at a slower pace. Fast-talkers sound nervous. Slow your speech by 10 to 15 percent, and you’ll come across as more thoughtful, more powerful, and way more in control.

[…]

How to ask for a favor

But, if you want to ask for a favor, or if you’re trying to de-escalate tension, warmth and vocal smile actually matter more than confidence. Add just a touch of softness and upward inflection, and you’re good to go.

[…]

And you don’t have to be a pro voice-actor to do this. You just have to be intentional. And if you’re already doing this naturally, you’re actually using performance psychology.

The future is going to be full of good fortune

Saturday, August 23rd, 2025

Richard Wiseman enumerates four principles used by “lucky” people to create good fortune:

Principle One: Maximise Chance Opportunities
Lucky people are skilled at creating, noticing and acting upon chance opportunities. They do this in various ways, including networking, adopting a relaxed attitude to life and by being open to new experiences.

Principle Two: Listening to Lucky Hunches
Lucky people make effective decisions by listening to their intuition and gut feelings. In addition, they take steps to actively boost their intuitive abilities by, for example, meditating and clearing their mind of other thoughts.

Principle Three: Expect Good Fortune
Lucky people are certain that the future is going to be full of good fortune. These expectations become self-fulfilling prophecies by helping lucky people persist in the face of failure, and shape their interactions with others in a positive way.

Principle Four: Turn Bad Luck to Good
Lucky people employ various psychological techniques to cope with, and often even thrive upon, the ill fortune that comes their way. For example, they spontaneously imagine how things could have been worse, do not dwell on the ill fortune, and take control of the situation.

We are preparing to storm positions that we should already be occupying

Friday, August 22nd, 2025

In doctrine, dogma dies hard:

Nowhere is this more evident than in NATO’s enduring obsession with the offense, particularly in the terrain of the urban environment. Despite being a fundamentally defensive alliance, most NATO exercises, training courses, and operational plans focus on seizing ground, breaching defenses, and clearing strongpoints. The result is a dangerous conceptual imbalance: armies that are prepared to attack in cities but not to defend them. In reality, they will likely have to do the latter before they ever do the former.

This is not an abstract concern. If conflict erupts in NATO’s sphere of interest, the first units to make contact will almost certainly be defending, not attacking. An adversary is likely to have the important first-mover advantage, seizing the initiative by making the opening moves. Initial objectives in such conflicts will undoubtedly include those large urban areas that straddle the main transportation infrastructure leading farther toward the adversary’s objectives. Potential adversaries know this in advance. They will plan to mass fires, integrate uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) with thermobaric payloads, and conduct urban shaping operations before launching a combined arms assault. They will not wait for NATO to organize a counterattack. War will come to the defenders.

Why, then, are NATO militaries still preparing to assault someone else’s trenches instead of holding their own?

The roots of this imbalance lie in what can only be described as a cult of the urban offense. It is baked into NATO doctrine, into training centers, and into the very language of tactical education. Urban warfare is taught almost exclusively through the narrow lens of clearing buildings, breaching doors, assaulting intersections, and suppressing enemy strongpoints. The imagery is kinetic, aggressive, and built around a World War II model of urban combat that focuses almost entirely on the tactical level.

Most of that sounds more like Delta Force’s hostage-rescue tactics trickling down through the Rangers to Big Army.

That model is outdated. NATO instructors still teach tactics developed to defeat Axis defenders in fortified cities. But modern adversaries are not relying on bunkers and machine gun nests. They are using thermobaric weapons, precision-guided bombs, loitering munitions, tandem-charge rocket-propelled grenades, and multispectral UAV reconnaissance. A shoulder-fired rocket that once might have created a breach in a wall now flattens a room, an entire floor, or even a whole building. In Ukraine, even basic UAVs are delivering thermobaric payloads through second-story windows.

Yet our tactics have not caught up. NATO battalions in the Baltics still train to assault trench lines. But whose trenches? If Russia crosses the border, NATO’s first mission is to hold ground, not to seize it. We are preparing to storm positions that we should already be occupying.

The problem runs deeper than doctrine. The way we train shapes the way we think. When soldiers spend months rehearsing assaults but never practice layered defense or mobile delay operations, they internalize a false belief that success only comes from attacking. Urban exercises often end at the point of entry (the break-in), not with the enemy’s inevitable counterattack. There is little emphasis on hasty defense after seizure, even though many major urban battles such as Stalingrad, Ortona, Aachen, Grozny, Fallujah, Mosul, Marawi, and Sieverodonetsk required forces to shift from offense to defense, sometimes repeatedly.

Urban training environments make this worse. Most NATO sites are sterile and overly simplified. They consist of a few one- or two-story buildings arranged in a grid, with no interior clutter, no civilian presence, no collateral damage, and no realistic fire effects. These facilities are useful for rehearsing movement drills but do not prepare troops to survive real contact. No NATO unit trains under thermobaric blasts crashing through upper floors or autocannon fire ripping through multiple walls. No site simulates the violence of joint fires in dense terrain or the intensity of enemy shaping operations that strike everything around a defensive position.

[…]

This failure to replicate real-world conditions reinforces outdated thinking. If soldiers only train in sanitized environments, they will not learn how quickly a position can be located, targeted, and destroyed. If they never experience fire effects such as rounds passing through concrete, they will not understand the limits of cover or the importance of dispersion, concealment, and movement.

The lack of depth also prevents defenders from practicing fallback routes, alternate positions, and layered deception. Units become conditioned to static defense. And yet, many NATO militaries still express confidence in their ability to conduct urban operations at scale.

[…]

First, defending forces must limit the attacker’s options. One of the defender’s most pressing challenges in urban terrain is poor situational awareness in the surrounding environment. Line of sight is limited, and urban clutter obscures movement and intent. While this affects both sides, attackers often retain the initiative and usually enjoy better intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance coverage from the outset. This gives them more options for break-in points than most defenders can realistically cover.

[…]

Second, dispersion within the local urban environment must be maximized. NATO forces must abandon the one building, one squad mentality. Instead, available construction and fortification materials should be used to reinforce a distributed network of mutually supporting buildings. This creates layered strongpoints that can deliver interlocking fields of fire, absorb attrition in stages, and delay the enemy’s tempo.

Defenders should prepare loopholes for overlapping fires, establish mouseholes for concealed movement and fallback, and construct alternate positions that are ready for rapid displacement. These routes should be obscured from overhead observation to reduce vulnerability to UAV detection and indirect fire. Camouflage and concealment remain essential. Avoiding enemy intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance entirely is all but impossible, so survivability depends on signature reduction so fighting positions are not targetable or worth the attacker’s munition.

The astronomer, like the Shinto priests, must climb his mountain

Thursday, August 21st, 2025

Percival Lowell (1855 – 1916), the founder of the Lowell Observatory, inspired Martian romances like A Princess of Mars in multiple ways:

Lowell, the liberally bankrolled son of a New England manufacturing dynasty, led an eccentric but not unproductive life, devoting himself in his twenties and thirties to the study of Far-Eastern religious practices and in the last half of his life to the study of the planet Mars. More people know of Lowell’s Martian obsession than know of his interest in the shamanic practices of the Koreans and Japanese, but the earlier fascination thoroughly informs the later one. Lowell’s theory of the fourth planet as the home of an immensely ancient and philosophical civilization in turn informs the generic Martian Romance, beginning with Burroughs’ “John Carter” trilogy, whose writer-imitators found their venues in the pulpy purveyances of commercial fiction, the bright covers of which would beckon to hungry souls from the display rack. Lowell wrote up his ethnological forays in a series of books, among them Chosön – the Land of Morning Calm (1886), Noto – an Unexplored Corner of Japan (1891), and Occult Japan – Shinto, Shamanism, and the Way of the Gods (1894). Occult Japan begins with Lowell’s first-hand description of a shamanic ritual at the crater-edge of Ontake, a dormant volcano in Kagoshima prefecture. Two young monks help a third to enter a trance whereupon an ancestral spirit possesses and speaks through the medium. “The veil was thrown aside,” Lowell writes; “we stood face to face with the gods.”[xii] Occult Japan ends with a long chapter, “Noumena,” wherein Lowell goes in quest of “that innermost something that each of us calls ‘I,’” “the essence of the Ego,” or “the Self.”[xiii] Perhaps the gods and the Self are, in fact, one.

The symbolic features of the Shinto landscape recur in Lowell’s books about Mars. Lowell built his observatory in 1894 on what came to be known as Mars Hill in the then non-populous desert-town of Flagstaff, in the Arizona Territory. The astronomer, like the Shinto priests, must climb his mountain. He must, as well, alter his perspective. In The Evolution of Worlds (1910), Lowell writes that, whereas “astronomy is usually thought of as the study of the bodies visible in the sky” and is thought to concern itself only with “the present state of the universe”; the astronomer in fact “attempt[s] to peer into [the universe’s] past and to foresee its future.”[xiv] The astronomer deals, counter-intuitively, less with the visible than with “the contemplation of the invisible” through apperception “by the mind’s eye.”[xv] In Mars and its Canals (1906), having proven by his own lights the inhabited status of that world, Lowell writes that the Martians must qualify as “life of a high order,” in that “where the conditions of life have grown more difficult, mentality must characterize more and more its beings in order for them to survive.”[xvi] A certain rather Puritanical attitude might, Lowell grants, determine that “the very strangeness of Martian life precludes for it an appeal to human interest,” but quite the opposite is the case: “The less the life there proves a counterpart of our earthly state of things, the more it fires fancy and piques inquiry as to what it be.”[xvii] It matters little to Lowell whether the intellectual establishment acknowledges his argument. He quite candidly reveals himself as more the seer and adventurer than the staid man of science. It might be significant that in his youth, before his independence, he spent six years running a cotton-mill for his father. Lowell declares, and in so doing fuses himself with the science-fiction aficionado transfixed by a magazine cover on a high rack, that, in aging, “we but exchange… the romance of fiction for the more thrilling romance of fact,” and “the stranger the realization the better we are pleased.”[xviii]

Is air travel getting worse?

Wednesday, August 20th, 2025

Is air travel getting worse? Yes, Maxwell Tabarrok reports, in some important ways:

  • Long delays have become much more common. A 3-hour delay is 4x more likely in 2024 than in 1990, but airlines have masked this increase by padding scheduled flight times.
  • Air travel remains safe; accidents are still on a slow downward trend
  • Airfare has become much cheaper over the past 10 years

Consumerism and sports fandom may be enough to keep this country together

Tuesday, August 19th, 2025

In his commencement address at Portland State University in 1998, President Bill Clinton told the crowd, “Within five years, there will be no majority race in our largest state, California“:

“In a little more than 50 years, there will be no majority race in the United States. No other nation in history has gone through demographic change of this magnitude over so short a time.”

[…]

The white majority crowd cheered at this statement, apparently thrilled at the prospect of living in a country that was no longer theirs. The clip shocked conservative X users. It seemed so brazen for the president and his audience to celebrate the Great Replacement. Nearly 30 years later, America is bearing out the truth in Clinton’s observations. It’s most likely that America will be minority white sooner than 2050, and whites are already a minority in several states.

[…]

While immigration has certainly changed much, it hasn’t quite “Balkanized” the country. One reason is that immigrants are now everywhere. One can encounter Hispanics and Indians in rural Arkansas. They’re too dispersed to form something along the lines of a Spanish or Hindi Quebec. They’re also too inclined to assimilate to America’s modern consumer identity.

[…]

“Demographics is destiny” became a powerful catchphrase to warn conservatives of what the future will look like without a white majority. Both liberals and the “far right” believed that demographic change would lead to a permanent Democratic majority. It was expected that non-whites would band together as a rainbow coalition against whiteness. That hasn’t panned out. Trump did extraordinarily well among minorities in the last election — while running on one of the most-race charged platforms in recent memory.

[…]

White nationalists were once confident that a diverse America would make whites embrace racial consciousness. That event has yet to happen. Just 15 percent of whites say their racial identity is important to them, which stands in stark contrast to the majority of every other group who say that identity is important to them. Nearly 95 percent of Americans approve of interracial marriage.

[…]

As [Pat Buchanan] acknowledged in a conversation with Ralph Nader 14 years ago, consumerism and sports fandom may be enough to keep this country together even with dramatic demographic change and a declining quality of life.

We really don’t know what it would be like to live in a red city in a red state

Monday, August 18th, 2025

When his best friend in Austin quips, “It’s great living in a blue city in a red state,” Bryan Caplan is tempted to reply, “ We really don’t know what it would be like to live in a red city in a red state — or even a red city in a blue state.”

Why? Because they barely exist. Zero cities with over one million people currently have Republican mayors.

From the standpoint of the textbook Median Voter Model, this is awfully puzzling. Even if urbanites are extremely left-wing, you would expect urban Republicans to move sharply left to accommodate them. Once they do so, the standard prediction is that Republicans will win half the time. But plainly they don’t.

One possibility is that Republican politicians are too stubbornly ideological to moderate. But the idea that virtually no one in the Republican Party is power-hungry enough to tell urban voters what they want to hear is deeply implausible.

The better explanation, as I’ve explained before, is that urban voters have party preferences as well as policy preferences. They don’t just want left-wing policies; they want left-wing policies delivered by the Democrats.

They would become the middle class

Sunday, August 17th, 2025

In Western Europe, Peter Frost notes, a consensus emerged on the need to execute violent males so that law-abiding people could live in peace:

By the Late Middle Ages, courts were condemning to death between 0.5 and 1% of all men in each generation, with perhaps just as many dying at the scene of the crime or in prison while awaiting trial. The pool of violent men dried up until most murders occurred under conditions of jealousy, intoxication or extreme stress. As a result, the homicide rate fell from 20–40 homicides per 100,000 in the Late Middle Ages to 0.5–1 per 100,000 in the mid-20th century.

People could now get ahead through trade and work, rather than through theft and plunder. This new, pacified environment favored the growth of the market economy and the success of those who possessed the necessary skills, especially literacy, numeracy and budgeting. They would become the middle class.