It really depends on how skillful the pilot is

November 12th, 2025

A member of Ukraine’s “Typhoon” drone unit discusses training and effectiveness:

In general, it takes at least three months to train the pilots from scratch to the beginner level.

When we talk about pilots, it’s worth mentioning that they also need to be a bit like engineers — if we talk about FPV drones. When you are in position, you have to understand how the system works. If something goes wrong, you should be able to repair it; if the drone crashes, you need to figure out how to make it fly again. So piloting skills are important, but it’s equally important to have some engineering knowledge as well.

[…]

For instance, in communications, a pilot might start a flight and lose control after 10 minutes. We try to understand why that happened — what caused the problem. We review the frequency data, the drone’s altitude at the time, the drone’s route, and collect this information over longer periods to identify patterns and understand the dynamics of how things are changing.

[…]

Here is where effectiveness comes in. Because if you are skilled enough, you can strike a target in one shot, without having them [Russian forces] have time to switch on their jamming systems. However, if you can’t reach the target in a single shot, the jamming systems will have time to switch on, and it will be quite hard to destroy it.

[…]

Currently, there are many cases of fixed-wing reconnaissance drones carrying FPVs and releasing them over target areas of interest. These setups can reach 30 to 50 kilometers before dropping the FPV, which has proven to be an effective tactic. In this role, the fixed-wing drone serves not just as a carrier, but also as a reconnaissance platform and [relay], providing significantly stronger connectivity to the FPV drone and helping to overcome the majority of jamming systems on the frontline.

The Russians have also been working on the quality of the fiber-optic drones they use, around the distances they can reach.
Previously, they could spread 15-20 km; now, sometimes this is 25-30km.

[…]

When we talk about the most successful (FPV) pilots, I would say the success rate of their missions is approximately 70% to 80% — but it really depends on how skillful the pilot is.

For mid-range skilled pilots, I would put this at a 40-50% success rate, but for new operators, it sometimes looks like a disaster, and that rate can drop to 20%.

When it comes to fiber-optic drones, it is a really different situation — I would say it’s like maybe 40-50% of success rates is the best you can achieve because a lot of additional things should be accounted for. For fiber-optic drones, you have to change your piloting approach. For these drones, success also depends on artillery intensity (which can sever the cable), weather and wind conditions, the density of friendly FPV operations that might accidentally cut the fiber-optic line, and careful route planning to avoid roads, power lines, and other obstacles that could damage the cable.

He had had almost no administrative experience of any kind, and he was not a Nobel Prize winner

November 11th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesIn addition to his other work, General Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, Arthur Compton had been assigned over-all responsibility for the physics of bomb development:

As a first step in June, 1942, he had appointed Dr. J. Robert Oppenheimer to take charge of this particular phase of the project. Oppenheimer was then at the University of California at Berkeley. He began work on the problem with a small group of theoretical physicists.

[…]

Adding to my cause for doubt, no one with whom I talked showed any great enthusiasm about Oppenheimer as a possible director of the project.

My own feeling was that he was well qualified to handle the theoretical aspects of the work, but how he would do on the practical experimentation, or how he would handle the administrative responsibilities, I had no idea.

[…]

Of the men within our organization I had no doubt that Ernest Lawrence could handle it. He was an outstanding experimental physicist, and this was a job for an experimental physicist. However, he could not be spared from his work on the electromagnetic process; in fact, without him we would have had to drop it, for it was far too difficult and complex for anyone else. I knew of no one then and I know of no one now, besides Ernest Lawrence, who could unquestionably have carried that development through to a successful conclusion.

[…]

Oppenheimer had two major disadvantages — he had had almost no administrative experience of any kind, and he was not a Nobel Prize winner. Because of the latter lack, he did not then have the prestige among his fellow scientists that I would have liked the project leader to possess. The heads of our three major laboratories — Lawrence at Berkeley, Urey at Columbia, and Compton at Chicago — were all Nobel Prize winners, and Compton had several Nobel Prize winners working under him. There was a strong feeling among most of the scientific people with whom I discussed this matter that the head of Project Y should also be one.

[…]

His background included much that was not to our liking by any means. The security organization, which was not yet under my complete control, was unwilling to clear him because of certain of his associations, particularly in the past. I was thoroughly familiar with everything that had been reported about Oppenheimer. As always in security matters of such importance, I had read all the available original evidence; I did not depend upon the conclusions of the security officers.

Finally, because I felt that his potential value outweighed any security risk, and to remove the matter from further discussion, I personally wrote and signed the following instructions to the District Engineer on July 20, 1943:

In accordance with my verbal directions of July 15, it is desired that clearance be issued for the employment of Julius Robert Oppenheimer without delay, irrespective of the information which you have concerning Mr. Oppenheimer. He is absolutely essential to the project.

Histotripsy devices channel ultrasound waves into a focal zone of about two by four millimeters

November 10th, 2025

Ultrasound has long been used to see inside the body, but focused high-frequency sound is now targeting cancer:

If Zhen Xu hadn’t annoyed her lab mates, she might never have discovered a groundbreaking treatment for liver cancer.

As a PhD student in biomedical engineering at the University of Michigan in the US during the early 2000s, Xu was trying to find a way for doctors to destroy and remove diseased tissue without the need for invasive surgery. She’d landed on the idea of using high-frequency sound waves – ultrasound – to mechanically break up tissue and was testing her theory on pig hearts.

Ultrasound isn’t supposed to be audible to human ears, but Xu was using such a powerful amplifier in her experiments that other researchers she shared the laboratory with began to complain about noise. “Nothing had worked anyway,” she says. So she decided to humour her colleagues by increasing the rate of ultrasound pulses, which would bring the sound level outside the range of human hearing.

To her shock, increasing the number of pulses per second — which also meant each pulse reduced in length to a microsecond — was not only less disruptive to those around her, but also more effective on living tissue than the approach she’d tried previously. As she watched, a hole appeared in the pig heart tissue within a minute of ultrasound application.

[…]

For treatment of liver cancer, histotripsy devices channel ultrasound waves into a focal zone of about two by four millimetres — “basically, the tip of your colouring pen”, Xu says. Then, a robotic arm guides the transducer over the tumour to target the correct area.

The ultrasound is delivered in quick bursts. These pulses create tiny “microbubbles” that expand and then collapse in microseconds, breaking apart the tumour tissue as they do. The patient’s immune system is then able to clean up the remains.

Ever-present in our thinking was the sad example of the luminous watch-dial painters of World War I

November 9th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesIt was understood that all du Pont’s work would be based on technical information to be furnished by the Metallurgical Laboratory, General Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, and that the government assumed all responsibility for the results of the endeavor, as well as for any damages that might be incurred in the course of the work:

This last provision was necessary because of the nature of the entirely unpredictable and unprecedented hazards involved.

Normal insurance coverage was impossible because of the need to maintain security. While we could have disclosed the normal risks involved to a single insurance representative, there would have been little point in it, for reinsurance on large risks requires that adequate knowledge be in the hands of many groups, which would seriously have endangered our security. Moreover, the unusual hazards were such that no group of insurance companies could possibly have written the coverage, even after complete disclosure. First, no one had any reasonable idea of what the hazards might be or the likelihood of their occurring. Second, no one could predict the duration of the effects of the hazard, or, in many instances, even when the effects might first appear. Third, no one could possibly predict the extent of the damage if a major catastrophe occurred.

For all these hazards the government assumed full responsibility. To facilitate the handling of claims not resulting from a major catastrophe a special fund was established. This fund was placed under the control of du Pont so that it could continue to be available for many years. All claims were to be approved by the government before payment.

Ever-present in our thinking was the sad example of the luminous watch-dial painters of World War I. Here the effects did not become apparent for many years. The delayed reaction to excessive radiation also hit many of the original researchers and users of X-rays. How could we be certain that radiation exposure in our installations might not have similar effects despite all our efforts to prevent them?

[…]

Mr. Carpenter said that du Pont did not want any fee or profit of any kind for this work, and wanted furthermore to be certain that the company would receive no patent rights. A new letter of intent incorporating provisions to this effect was prepared and was immediately accepted.

[…]

At du Pont’s request, Dr. Bush forwarded a letter to the President outlining the circumstances surrounding the assumption by the United States of all responsibility for the unusual hazards involved in this work. Mr. Roosevelt initialed his approval on the letter and a photostatic copy of it was given du Pont.

[…]

We encountered one other snag in making sure that, though du Pont was doing the job without profit, it would not be subject to any direct financial losses. For purely legal reasons, provision was made for a fee of one dollar.

Although the expected duration of the contract was stated, as is usual, soon after V-J Day du Pont was paid the entire fee of one dollar. This resulted in a disallowance by government auditors, since the entire time of the contract had not run out. Consequently, du Pont was asked to return thirty-three cents to the United States. Fortunately, the officers of du Pont had retained their sense of humor throughout their many years of association with the government, and were able to derive considerable amusement from this ruling.

Mamdani’s win was largely propelled by the young credentialed precariat

November 8th, 2025

End Times by Peter TurchinThe Mamdani Moment, Peter Turchin argues, perfectly illustrates the “credentialed precariat”:

Ten years ago the political landscape in the US was dominated by two parties: one of the “1 percent” (wealth holders) and one of the “10 percent” (credential-holders). Both parties focused on advancing the interests of the ruling class, while ignoring those of the 90 percent. I am, of course, simplifying a lot here; for a more detailed and nuanced explanation see End Times.

In 2016 Donald Trump channeled growing popular immiseration to begin reformatting the Republicans into a right-wing populist — “MAGA” — party. This process is quite incomplete.

Meanwhile, the Democrats had effectively controlled the left-wing populists in their party, by a combination of suppression (think Bernie Sanders) and cooptation (think AOC). As a result, by 2024 the Democratic Party evolved into the sole party of the ruling elites.

[…]

Many pundits commented on the observation that Mamdani enjoyed support among younger voters. Indeed, 78% of the youngest cohort (18-29 years old) voted for him and only 18 for Cuomo, for the Mamdani advantage of 60 points.

[…]

Let’s first look at credential-holders. Astonishingly, the proportion of people, voting in this election, who had at least “some college” experience is 80%. 31% have earned a Bachelor’s and fully 27% hold an advanced degree, with both groups giving Mamdani an advantage of 19 points (57% for Mamdani, 38% for Cuomo).

To tell the truth, I first didn’t believe these numbers. Such concentration of credentialed individuals is amazing. But according to the NYC government survey in 2023, two years ago the proportion of New Yorkers with a bachelor’s degree or higher was 43%, increasing from 33% in 2010. Of the White adults (25 or older) two-thirds completed college. Talk about degree overproduction…

Next, income. Here the relationship is nonlinear. The poorest (earning less than $30,000 per year) and the richest ($300,000 or more) gave more votes to Cuomo, while those in between preferred Mamdani. Thus, the richest 8%, earning $300k or more, preferred Cuomo by 29 points. The problem for Cuomo was that those in the middle category comprised 77% of voters. The biggest degree of preference for Mamdani compared to Cuomo — 20 points — was among those earning $50-99k. This was also the largest group (27% of voters). The next group, $100-199k, were close behind: 18 points for Mamdani.

It may seem strange to call those earning 50-100k “precariat,” but one must take into account that NYC is a very expensive city. The median rent for two-bedroom apartments in New York City increased 15.8% over the past year and is now $5,500 per month (see Zohran’s Park Slope Populists by John Carney), or $66,000 per year. In other words, you will spend two-thirds of your $100,000 income just to keep a roof over your head.

[…]

Still, these numbers provide strong support for the idea that Mamdani’s win was largely propelled by the young credentialed precariat: the youth with college degree, or higher, earning just enough to live on the edge.

He was invited by Compton on the ground that he was the youngest and would be able to talk about it for the most years

November 7th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. Groves The original plan for the first experimental test pile had been to place it in the Argonne Forest, General Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, some fifteen miles out of Chicago, where special facilities were being built to accommodate the pile and its accompanying laboratories:

The already insufficient time available for this construction was cut even further by some labor difficulties which, while not particularly serious, led to delays.

In the meantime, work had begun on a small pile under the West Stands of Stagg Field at the University of Chicago. This pile was to be used to perform exponential experiments to determine the feasibility of the larger test pile. An exponential experiment, as its name indicates, is one from which, using measurements of the results obtained under varying conditions, the results to be expected under vastly different conditions can be calculated. When the supply of pure graphite necessary for the construction of a self-sustaining pile became available somewhat sooner than had been anticipated, Compton raised the question: “Why wait for Argonne?”

There was no reason to wait, except for our uncertainty about whether the planned experiment might not prove hazardous to the surrounding community. If the pile should explode, no one knew just how far the danger would extend. Stagg Field lies in the heart of a populous area, while the Argonne site was well isolated. Because of this, I had serious misgivings about the wisdom of Compton’s suggestion. I went over the situation with him, and told him of my feelings, but I did not interfere with his plans, nor did I display outwardly my concern by being present during the initial test. I learned then that nothing is harder for the man carrying the ultimate responsibility, in this case myself, than to sit back and appear calm and confident while all his hopes can easily be destroyed in a moment by some unexpected event over which he has no direct control.

[…]

Although the committee was in the Chicago laboratories on December 2, 1942, when the Fermi experimental atomic pile was first placed in operation, the only committee member to witness the actual demonstration was Greenewalt. He was invited by Compton on the ground that he was the youngest and would be able to talk about it for the most years.

[…]

“The Italian navigator [Fermi] has just landed in the new world. The natives are friendly.”

The December 2 test proved that a controlled chain reaction could be achieved, but it gave no assurance that it could be used to produce plutonium on a large scale. Neither did it give us any assurance that a bomb using plutonium or U-235 would explode. In the reactor the chain reaction was based on slow neutrons, i.e., ones slowed down by graphite or other means. In the bomb, the neutrons would be fast, for because of technical limitations there could be no moderators. Nevertheless, the committee, basing its opinion on what it had seen and heard during its inspections, reported favorably on the plutonium process.

[…]

In his letter, Compton was quite positive. He stated that the production of plutonium following the procedure then in hand was feasible; that there was a 99 per cent probability that it would be successful; that the probability of a successful bomb was 90 per cent; and that the time schedule, assuming continued full support, would see delivery of the first bomb in 1944 and a production rate of one bomb per month in 1945. This was by far the most optimistic estimate that I ever received prior to the explosion of the first bomb some thirty months later; and it was not at all justified by the existing knowledge.

No one appears to have tested the synthetic intermediates for antimicrobial activity

November 6th, 2025

Researchers at Warwick University in the UK and Monash University in Australia have just identified a powerful new antibiotic, pre-methylenomycin C lactone, from a type of bacteria that scientists have been studying for decades:

“Remarkably, the bacterium that makes methylenomycin A and pre-methylenomycin C lactone — Streptomyces coelicolor — is a model antibiotic-producing species that’s been studied extensively since the 1950s,” says chemist Lona Alkhalaf, from the University of Warwick.

[…]

In lab tests, pre-methylenomycin C lactone was shown to be 100 times more effective than methylenomycin A against Gram-positive bacteria, the kinds that are getting smarter at outwitting our current antibiotics.

The researchers behind the discovery decided to take a closer look at methylenomycin A by modifying the genes used in the assembly line of the antibiotic, to see what each one did. The resulting compounds, described as biosynthetic intermediates, were then tested for antibiotic activity.

“Methylenomycin A was originally discovered 50 years ago, and while it has been synthesized several times, no one appears to have tested the synthetic intermediates for antimicrobial activity,” says chemist Greg Challis, from the University of Warwick.

It had taken them many years to get nylon into mass production; yet the nylon process was simple compared to what we were asking of them

November 5th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. Groves After he had studied all the possibilities, General Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, he concluded that only one firm was capable of handling all three phases of the plutonium effort, and that firm was du Pont:

When I broached the subject to Arthur Compton, he agreed at once, saying that he knew Stone and Webster were overburdened and were way out of their field of experience, and that it would be a great relief to have du Pont in the picture. However, he warned me that we would encounter opposition, some of it quite strong and quite influential, from some of the people in his laboratory.

He told me that in the previous June he had assembled his staff and proposed bringing in an industrial firm to take over responsibility for the production phase of the plutonium project. The suggestion had resulted in a near rebellion, particularly among those whose entire experience had been in academic institutions. They simply did not comprehend the immensity of the engineering, construction and operating problems that had to be overcome. Whenever attempts were made to explain them, they brushed them aside as inconsequential. After the furor had subsided, Compton announced that he expected to go ahead with his idea.

He said that while his position had been accepted then, he had no doubt that there would be many objections, voiced and unvoiced, and that the selection of du Pont — the very symbol of large industry — would be particularly opposed. He went on to assure me that personally he was very much in favor of my proposal and, moreover, that he felt that du Pont was by far the best choice that could be made.

On the other hand, a number of his scientific people, particularly those who had been trained in Europe, where scientific and engineering education were more closely linked than in this country, had the idea that all design and engineering for the project should be accomplished under their personal direction. Some even went so far as to say that they could also supervise the construction.

When I visited the laboratory on October 5 and again on October 15, I was told by several different persons that if I would provide them with from fifty to one hundred junior engineers and draftsmen, they would then themselves design and construct the plutonium plant, rapidly and without delay. They added that the plant could then be turned over to a private company for operation, or possibly be run under the Civil Service.

The absurdity of such a proposal is apparent when it is remembered that this was the plant where our construction forces reached a peak of forty-five thousand and was so difficult an undertaking as to strain even the great resources of du Pont, with the full power of, and considerable aid from, the government and much of America’s industry behind it.

[…]

The urgency of the project did not allow time for us to conduct any detailed security checks in advance of negotiations; instead, we relied upon the discretion and patriotism of American industry. We considered this a good risk and we were never disappointed.

[…]

I said that there were three basic military considerations involved in our work. First, the Axis Powers could very easily soon be in a position to produce either plutonium or U-235, or both. There was no evidence to indicate that they were not striving to do so; therefore we had to assume that they were. To have concluded otherwise would have been foolhardy. Second, there was no known defense against the military use of nuclear weapons except the fear of their counter-employment. Third, if we were successful in time, we would shorten the war and thus save tens of thousands of American casualties. (I have always believed it was for these reasons, and particularly the last, that Carpenter and his colleagues on the du Pont Executive Committee agreed to undertake the work in spite of all the hazards it entailed for their company.)

[…]

They pointed out that even in one of their own fields of specialization they would not attempt to design a large-scale plant without the necessary data that could be accumulated only by a long period of laboratory research, followed by semi-works operation: for example, it had taken them many years to get nylon into mass production; yet the nylon process was simple compared to what we were asking of them.

[…]

I should make it clear that reactor theory at this time did not overlook the possibility that once a chain reaction was started, it could, under some conditions, get out of control and increase progressively to the point where the reactor would explode. If highly radioactive materials were blown into the atmosphere and spread by winds over a wide area, the results could be catastrophic. We knew, too, that in the separation of the plutonium we might release into the atmosphere radioactive and other highly toxic fumes which would constitute a distinct hazard for operating personnel. It was not surprising, therefore, that du Pont should entertain grave doubts about the desirability of joining us in our work.

[…]

As the directors entered the room at their next Board meeting, they were asked not to look at the faced-down papers on the table in front of them. Carpenter explained that the Executive Committee was recommending that du Pont accept a contract from the government for a project in a previously unexplored field so large and so difficult that it would strain the capacity of the company to the utmost. He added that there were elements of hazard in it that under certain conditions could very well seriously damage if not well-nigh destroy du Pont. He said that the highest officials in the government, as well as those who knew the most about it, considered it to be of the highest military importance. Even its purpose was held in extreme secrecy, although if any Board member wished to he was free to read the faced-down papers before voting. Not a single man, and they were all heavy stockholders, turned them over before voting approval — or afterwards — a true display of real patriotism.

Children playing in the green kindergartens had less disease-causing bacteria

November 4th, 2025

Across Finland, 43 daycare centers have been awarded a total of €1m to re-wild playgrounds to increase children’s exposure to microscopic biodiversity – such as bacteria and fungi – in nature:

The compost is fed with old leaves and weeds, and then used to grow beetroots, carrots, cucumbers and potatoes, courgettes and chillies. Now parsley is the only thing left – winter is drawing in and everything else has been eaten. The children, however, remain outside.

The plants, dead wood and soil in the daycare centre have all been specially selected for their rich micro-biodiversity. They have also dug up and imported a giant live carpet of forest floor, 20-40cm deep and 10 metres square. It has blueberries, lingonberries and moss growing on it, to encourage the children to forage, find bugs and learn about nature.

“This area has not been forested for 200 years so this is a substitute,” says Sinkkonen. In a wetland area they can balance on rocks and play among a different selection of plants. Five years ago, it was a gravel car park.

This kindergarten was included in a two-year study looking at how biodiversity enhancements affect the microbial composition of children’s skin, saliva and faeces. The study was the first of its kind. Blood samples were taken to look at immune defences, and a short questionnaire about infectious diseases was filled out every three months. In total, 75 children aged between three and five across 10 urban daycare centres took part in the study. It compared “rewilded” daycare centres such as this with others covered in asphalt, sand, gravel and plastic mats.

A year later, it found children playing in the green kindergartens had less disease-causing bacteria — such as Streptococcus — on their skin, and stronger immune defences. Their gut microbiota showed reduced levels of Clostridium bacteria — associated with inflammatory bowel disease, colitis and infections such as sepsis and botulism. Within 28 days it found an increase in cells in the blood — called T regulatory cells — that protect the body from autoimmune diseases. Other research showed that in just two weeks children’s immune system regulation could be improved by playing in a sandpit enriched with garden soil.

Nothing would be more fatal to success than to try to arrive at a perfect plan before taking any important step

November 3rd, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. Groves On October 5, 1942, General Groves paid his first visit to the Metallurgical Laboratory at the University of Chicago, as he explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, where he met with Arthur Compton and “about fifteen of his senior men”:

Among them were two other Nobel Prize winners, Enrico Fermi and James Franck, together with the brilliant Hungarian physicists Eugene Wigner and Leo Szilard, and Dr. Norman Hilberry, Compton’s assistant.

[…]

With respect to the amount of fissionable material needed for each bomb, how accurate did they think their estimate was? I expected a reply of “within twenty-five or fifty per cent,” and would not have been greatly surprised at an even greater percentage, but I was horrified when they quite blandly replied that they thought it was correct within a factor of ten.

[…]

My position could well be compared with that of a caterer who is told he must be prepared to serve anywhere between ten and a thousand guests. But after extensive discussion of this point, I concluded that it simply was not possible then to arrive at a more precise answer.

[…]

This uncertainty surrounding the amount of material needed for a bomb plagued us continuously until shortly before the explosion of the Alamogordo test bomb on July 16, 1945. Even after that we could not be sure that Uranium-235 (used in the Hiroshima bomb) would have the same characteristics as plutonium (used in the test and later against Nagasaki), although we knew of no reason why it should be greatly different.

[…]

After the meeting, Compton and I resumed a discussion we had begun earlier with Szilard on how to reduce the number of approaches which were being explored for cooling the pile. Four methods—using helium, air, water and heavy water—were under active study. It was essential that we concentrate on the most promising and more or less abandon work on the others. By the end of the afternoon we settled on helium cooling. But within three months this decision was changed. The design problems early encountered in the comparatively small air-cooled reactor at Clinton indicated that the handling of any gaseous coolant in the much larger Hanford reactors would be very difficult. And as the operation of the Fermi test pite in December had proved that in a properly designed uranium pile water could be used as a coolant, it was adopted for the plutonium reactors we built at Hanford.

I left Chicago feeling that the plutonium process seemed to offer us the greatest chances for success in producing bomb material. Every other process then under consideration depended upon the physical separation of materials having almost infinitesimal differences in their physical properties. Under such circumstances, the design and operation of any industrial processes to accomplish this separation would involve unprecedented difficulties. It was true that the transmutation of uranium by spontaneous chain reaction into usable quantities of plutonium fell entirely outside of existing technical knowledge; yet the rest of the process—the chemical separation of the plutonium from the rest of the material—while extremely difficult and completely unprecedented, did not seem to be impossible.

Up until this time, only infinitesimal quantities of plutonium had been produced, and these by means of the cyclotron, a laboratory method not suitable for production in quantity. And by quantity production of plutonium, I do not mean tons per hour, but rather a few thimblefuls per day. Even by December, 1943, only two milligrams had been produced.

[…]

This was in accord with the general philosophy I had followed throughout the military construction program and to which we adhered consistently in this project; namely, that nothing would be more fatal to success than to try to arrive at a perfect plan before taking any important step.

This shape optimizes surface area while the material composition allows for a much lighter-weight end product

November 2nd, 2025

Researchers from the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) have 3D-printed a lightweight ceramic fuel cell that they call the Monolithic Gyroidal Solid Oxide Cell:

The team implemented a custom design inspired by the natural construction of coral. This shape optimizes surface area while the material composition allows for a much lighter-weight end product. Most fuel cells are comprised of metal, which contributes greatly to their weight. This fuel cell is apparently completely ceramic.

The intricate design is known as a gyroid and is a type of triply periodic minimal surface (shortened to TPMS). These surfaces are intended to provide as much surface area as possible. It’s beneficial, particularly in this case, as the surface provides more optimal heat dispersion. According to the development team, the cell is capable of producing more than a watt of power for each gram of its own weight.

The most important source of uranium ore during the war years was the Shinkolobwe Mine in the Belgian Congo

November 1st, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesIt is sobering to realize, General Groves explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, that but for a chance meeting between a Belgian and an Englishman a few months before the outbreak of the war, the Allies might not have been first with the atomic bomb:

For the most important source of uranium ore during the war years was the Shinkolobwe Mine in the Belgian Congo and the most important man concerned with its operation was M. Edgar Sengier, the managing director of Union Miniere du Haut Katanga or, as it is usually called, Union Miniere.

In May of 1939, Sengier happened to be in England, in the office of Lord Stonehaven, a fellow director on the Union Miniere Board, when Stonehaven asked him to receive an important scientist. This turned out to be Sir Henry Tizard, the director of the Imperial College of Science and Technology. He asked Sengier to grant the British Government an option on every bit of radium-uranium ore that would be extracted from the Shinkolobwe Mine. Naturally, Sengier refused. As he was leaving, Sir Henry took him by the arm and said most impressively: “Be careful, and never forget that you have in your hands something which may mean a catastrophe to your country and mine if this material were to fall in the hands of a possible enemy.” This remark, coming as it did from a renowned scientist, made a lasting impression on Sengier.

A few days later, he discussed the future possibilities of uranium fission with several French scientists, including Joliot-Curie, a Nobel Prize winner. They proposed a joint effort to attempt the fission of uranium in a bomb to be constructed in the Sahara Desert. Sengier accepted their proposal in principle and agreed to furnish the raw material and to assist in the work. The outbreak of World War II in September, 1939, brought this project to a halt even before it began.

Tizard’s warning and the obvious interest of the French scientists emphasized to Sengier the strategic value of the Katanga ores, which were of exceptional richness, far surpassing in that respect any others that have ever been discovered.

Sengier left Brussels in October of 1939 for New York, where he remained for the rest of the war. From there, he managed the operations of his company, both inside and outside the Belgian Congo, and after the invasion of Belgium in 1940 had to do so without the benefit of any advice from his fellow directors who were in Belgium behind the German lines.

Before his departure from Brussels, he had ordered shipped to the United States and to Great Britain all available radium, about 120 grams, then valued at some $1.8 million. He had also ordered that all uranium ores in stock at the Union Miniere-controlled refining plant in Oolen, Belgium, be sent to the United States. Unfortunately, this order was not complied with promptly; later, owing to the German advance into Belgium, it became impossible to carry it out.

Toward the end of 1940, fearing a possible German invasion of the Belgian Congo, Sengier directed his representatives in Africa to ship discreetly to New York, under whatever ruse was practicable, the very large supply of previously mined uranium ore, then in storage at the Shinkolobwe Mine. All work at the mine had stopped with the outbreak of the war and the equipment had been transferred to vitally important copper and cobalt mining operations for the Allied war effort. In accordance with Sengier’s instructions, over 1,250 tons of uranium ore were shipped by way of the nearest port, Lobito, in Portuguese Angola, during September and October of 1940, and on arrival were stored in a warehouse on Staten Island.

A tank designed for urban terrain would have radically different design requirements than a main battle tank designed for open warfare

October 31st, 2025

A tank designed for urban terrain would have radically different design requirements than a main battle tank designed for open warfare:

Main battle tanks rely primarily upon their speed and long-range firepower and are willing to sacrifice extra armor to retain mobility. In urban combat, however, the reverse is true: fights are at much closer ranges, mobility is measured by the ability to navigate sharp turns and tight/narrow streets, and speed can be sacrificed to retain maximum armor protection. Other unique requirements are the ability to shoot in multiple directions at once, shoot around 90-degree corners, increased importance on the ability to shoot at high and negative elevations, and designing the hull to carry cage armor and/or active protection systems.

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The first, most important, hard factor in an urban tank is its armor. Urban tanks will routinely fight at close range, and so every trick in the book will be necessary to ensure safety and survivability. Armor should be uniformly thick on the front, sides, and rear, since attacks from every angle are to be expected. A pentagon-shaped hull can offer the benefits of sloped armor and V-hulls for protection from mines. A slightly more complex alternative is an octagon-shaped hull, which can offer more angles and smaller flat surfaces for increased shot deflection. Additional armor modules, like cage armor and active protection systems, will not replace or reduce the hull armor’s thickness, and the chassis must be designed to carry them all at once without overloading.

The second hard factor, relating directly to the first, is the vehicle’s engine and mobility. Rather than being built for speed, a tank’s engine will instead resemble a bulldozer engine. An urban tank will be a very heavy vehicle, and so a bulldozer-style engine will be capable of both handling the sheer weight of the vehicle and will allow the tank to overpower obstacles.

Obstacle clearing must be an expected, routine occurrence for urban tanks, and the ability to smash through them and other man-made fortifications without requiring a separate armored bulldozer will be advantageous.

The third hard factor is the tank’s guns. An urban tank will use short-barreled guns, since longer barrels are difficult to maneuver in tight spaces and the tank is less likely to engage in long-range shooting. As a bonus, short-barreled guns are quicker to acquire targets. High-elevation and negative-elevation shooting also benefits from this quicker target acquisition.

An urban tank would have a mixture of gun calibers for its main turret and side turrets/sponsons, since it will need to be capable of firing in multiple directions at once. Side turrets and sponsons will not necessarily require large-caliber guns, but they will require rapid-fire guns. These will often be fired around street/building corners and into buildings from the street to provide flanking fire in support of advancing infantry. Urban tanks may also incorporate a flamethrower in front. The flamethrower would be desirable for covering a tank’s underbelly from attackers in spider holes, tunnel entrances such as manholes, and/or basement windows. It can also thwart attempts to drag mines into the tank’s path and reduce ground-level enemy gun positions designed to provide grazing fire.

A major development in modern tank design is the unmanned turret. As mentioned before, urban tanks must expect enemy fire from multiple directions simultaneously, and thus would benefit from having multiple turrets like a 1920s tank or a pre-dreadnought battleship. The 1920s designs were a failure because the turrets needed to be manned.

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Unmanned turrets, however, allow modern side turrets/sponsons to be much smaller and more compact than their 1920s ancestors, and keep the operators at a safe distance in the event of a direct hit and/or ammunition cook-off. Unmanned turrets can also be placed farther forward on the hull than manned turrets, since they weigh less and thus pose less risk of causing balance/center-of-gravity issues. Placing side turrets further forward, in turn, enables urban tanks to fire around 90-degree corners while exposing as little of its hull as possible. The controls for these would ideally be constructed like the A-10 Warthog’s controls, with redundancy and mechanical backups for all automated systems.

A second soft factor design element is the inclusion of escape hatches on all sides and the rear of the tank, a move that necessitates placing the engine and side turrets/sponsons towards the front of the vehicle.

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Classic urban antitank tactics involve firing down onto the tank from above; while this will be less damaging to an urban tank than a main battle tank on account of its uniformly thick armor, limiting urban tankers to exiting via top hatches noticeably reduces their likelihood of escaping safely when bailing out under fire. This survivability need will also affect the design and employment of cage armor; cage armor designs must not block escape routes, and the escape routes must not widen the cage armor profile any more than is necessary. If the tank becomes too wide, then its usefulness in narrow streets declines rapidly.

Our country would have been much better off in the immediate postwar years if we had had a group of officers who were thoroughly experienced in all the problems of this type of work

October 30th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesGeneral Groves believed strongly, as he explains in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project, that in time of war every possible regular officer should be in the combat area:

I was undoubtedly influenced in this belief by my personal knowledge of the disappointment suffered by many regular officers who were kept in this country during World War I, with no chance of combat experience. In my own case, I was already a cadet when the war started, and remained at West Point until a few days before the Armistice. Had my own experience been different, I would quite probably have had a considerable number of regular officers assigned to the project throughout its duration.

As I look back now with a full appreciation of the tremendous import of the development of atomic energy, I think it was a mistake not to have had them. Our country would have been much better off in the immediate postwar years if we had had a group of officers who were thoroughly experienced in all the problems of this type of work — not only in problems of atomic energy but in all the manifold problems involved in technical and scientific developments that have played such an important part in our national defense since 1945.

While I am on the subject of my own mistakes, I perhaps should add that there was another consideration, similar to this, to which I did not give adequate attention. That was the necessity of having replacements available if either Nichols or I died or became disabled. Many serious problems would have arisen if anything had happened to either of us, and it was not proper for me to have placed such great reliance, fortunately not misplaced, upon the physical and mental ability of both of us to stand up under the strain, to say nothing of the possibility of accidental death or injury, particularly since we did so much flying.

This was brought very vividly to my attention in December of 1944, when Mr. Churchill suggested that I should come to London to talk over our problems, and particularly our progress, with him and other members of his government. In discussing his request with Secretary Stimson, I said that while I would like very much to go to England, I was afraid that it might take me away from my work for a considerable period of time, especially if something developed that would make it impossible for Mr. Churchill to receive me immediately on arrival.

Mr. Stimson told me that if I went, I could not go by air, because of the hazards involved. When I said, “Well, I don’t see what difference that would make,” he replied, “You can’t be replaced.” I said, “You do it, and General Marshall does it; why shouldn’t I?” He repeated, “As I said before, you can’t be replaced, and we can.” Harvey Bundy, who was also present, said he had heard that I had previously urged flying when air safety dictated otherwise, and then asked, “Who would take your place if you were killed?” I replied, “That would be your problem, not mine, but I agree that you might have a problem.”

I went on to say that if anything happened to Nichols, I felt that I could continue to operate, though it would mean a very strenuous period for me personally, but that if it were the other way around, while Nichols was thoroughly capable of taking over my position, I thought because he was not so familiar with my responsibilities as I was with his that he could not do both my job and his.

I drew up a list of about six officers who I thought would be satisfactory, keeping in mind that it would be all-important for the man selected to be completely acceptable to Nichols, since success would depend on the utmost co-operation between them. I particularly wanted someone who would not attempt to overrule Nichols in any of his actions or recommendations until he had had time really to understand what the work was all about, and I doubted whether it would be possible for anyone to accumulate the essential background for this before the project was completed.

Having made up my list, I discussed the matter with Nichols. I asked him to look over the names and to strike from the list anyone whom he would prefer not to have in such a position. He struck several names. I always suspected he struck the first one just to see if I really meant what I had said, because it was the name of a man whom I had known for many years, and who was a very close friend. When he struck that name, I did not bat an eye, but merely said, “Well, he’s out.”

After he had crossed off the names of the men he considered unacceptable, I asked him if he had any preference among the remainder. He replied, “You name him and I’ll tell you.” I said that I felt that the best one on the list was Brigadier General Thomas F. Farrell, and Nichols replied, “He would be my first choice, too.”

The whole state college system is genius at making men politically inert

October 29th, 2025

Devin Helton argues that the whole state college system really is genius at making both young 115-IQ, high-T men and wealthy older men politically inert:

I can’t even determine if it is totally degenerate or a great social technology invention for society stability, just currently used by a bad regime.

You break up their hometown networks, send them to state colleges that are in their own little bubbles in the boonies, spoil them relatively cheaply with booze and college football and young coeds.

Then the social networks get broken up again once they are thrown into the job market at age 23 in random cities, away from friends, left scrambling to build a life.

And then the networks get broken up a third time when they have to move from the expensive down-towns where the career-starting jobs are, to the suburbs to raise a family.

And so at 40 their kids start school with fellow stranger parents and the curriculum has been changed from learning about Columbus and Pilgrims to gender-scrambling and race communism but there is no ability for the parents to coordinate and do anything about it.

And, then you reward the super-elites with fellowships and professorships and presidencies at the college, so they get access to the hot young co-eds too. What a brilliant system.

What’s breaking stability now is that the neocon right got stale, but the left is so high on their own supply that they refuse to play ball with the new right/MAGA and offer them even a small share of the university plum jobs and peaches.