He wanted it to look as if he were being dragged reluctantly to lifelong power

January 16th, 2025

Napoleon ofby Andrew RobertsAlthough the ten-year term of the Consulate was not due to expire until 1810, Andrew Roberts explains (in Napoleon: A Life), in May 1802 a Senate motion to extend it for a second ten-year term passed by sixty to one:

This led to seemingly spontaneous but in fact well-orchestrated calls for a new Constitution of the Year X, under which Napoleon would become First Consul for life. ‘You judge that I owe the people another sacrifice,’ he disingenuously told the Senate. ‘I will give it if the people’s voice orders what your vote now authorizes.’ Like Julius Caesar refusing the Roman diadem twice, he wanted it to look as if he were being dragged reluctantly to lifelong power.

So the kids’ shows are slop, and now adult shows will be slop too

January 15th, 2025

Erik Hoel notes that big tech corporations have recently been doing quite a few things that can be described as “pretty evil” without hyperbole:

What’s weird is how open all the proposed evil is. Like bragging-about-it-in-press-releases levels of open.

A few examples suffice, such as the news this month (reported in Harper’s) that Spotify has been using a web of shadowy production companies to generate many of its own tracks; likely, it’s implied, with AI. Spotify’s rip-offs are made with profiles that look real but are boosted onto playlists to divert listeners away from the actual musicians that make up their platform.

Meanwhile, child entertainment channels like CoComelon are fine-tuning their attention-stealing abilities on toddlers to absurdly villainous degrees.

[…]

More recently, it was revealed that Netflix will be purposefully dumbing down its shows so people can follow along without paying attention.

[…]

So the kids’ shows are slop, and now adult shows will be slop too as characters narrate their own actions and repeat everything twice to make up for lapses in attention as people scroll on their phones.

And then, right on the heels of this, it turned out Meta has been filling up Facebook and Instagram with bots on purpose, like this new AI “Momma of 2,” in order to flatter us with fake attention.

[…]

To provide context for the criticisms of these moves here: I’m not normally someone who gets mad at companies for just existing. I don’t hate commerce.

They thought of Vance as their in-house anthropologist

January 14th, 2025

Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother by Amy ChuaIn January 2011, Yale Law School professor Amy Chua was in the middle of her book tour for Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother, in her hotel room in Seattle, when an email came in from a first-year law student who had a question about his upcoming exam in her Contracts class:

Three hours later, probably after a beer, he writes me another email, and he’s like, ‘You know what? I should be studying, but I’m so curious about all this furor, so I went to Barnes & Noble, and I read it,’” she said, referring to her book. “He’s like, ‘I do not know why this is controversial.’”

Then, he told her, “You remind me of Mamaw” — Vance’s grandmother, who raised him with the same tough love that courses through Tiger Mother.

Vance added that he “felt a little bit bad” for giving her the impression that he came from an intact family, saying things were “more complicated” back home. He attached a document to the email, “and it’s the opening of Hillbilly Elegy,” Chua said, “and even though I was in trauma about my own situation, I read this thing, and I said, ‘J.D., you have to write your own book.’?”

Which, of course, he did.

Chua connected Vance with her agent, and in June 2016 — just over four months before Donald Trump was elected to the White House for the first time — the book was published. Progressive America loved it. They thought of Vance as their in-house anthropologist, the man who could explain these sad, strange people who had just voted for The Great Satan.

“She helped create the origin story for the person who’s the future vice president of the United States,” a former student, who is now an attorney in New York, told me. “That’s classic Amy Chua.”

There will always be prigs

January 13th, 2025

The word “prig” isn’t very common now, Paul Graham notes, but if you look up the definition, it will sound familiar:

Google’s isn’t bad:

A self-righteously moralistic person who behaves as if superior to others.

This sense of the word originated in the 18th century, and its age is an important clue: it shows that although wokeness is a comparatively recent phenomenon, it’s an instance of a much older one.

There’s a certain kind of person who’s attracted to a shallow, exacting kind of moral purity, and who demonstrates his purity by attacking anyone who breaks the rules. Every society has these people. All that changes is the rules they enforce. In Victorian England it was Christian virtue. In Stalin’s Russia it was orthodox Marxism-Leninism. For the woke, it’s social justice.

So if you want to understand wokeness, the question to ask is not why people behave this way. Every society has prigs. The question to ask is why our prigs are priggish about these ideas, at this moment. And to answer that we have to ask when and where wokeness began.

The answer to the first question is the 1980s. Wokeness is a second, more aggressive wave of political correctness, which started in the late 1980s, died down in the late 1990s, and then returned with a vengeance in the early 2010s, finally peaking after the riots of 2020.

[…]

Basically, the 1960s radicals got tenure. They became the Establishment they’d protested against two decades before. Now they were in a position not just to speak out about their ideas, but to enforce them.

A new set of moral rules to enforce was exciting news to a certain kind of student. What made it particularly exciting was that they were allowed to attack professors. I remember noticing that aspect of political correctness at the time. It wasn’t simply a grass-roots student movement. It was faculty members encouraging students to attack other faculty members. In that respect it was like the Cultural Revolution.

[…]

Imagine having to explain to a well-meaning visitor from another planet why using the phrase “people of color” is considered particularly enlightened, but saying “colored people” gets you fired. And why exactly one isn’t supposed to use the word “negro” now, even though Martin Luther King used it constantly in his speeches. There are no underlying principles. You’d just have to give him a long list of rules to memorize.

The danger of these rules was not just that they created land mines for the unwary, but that their elaborateness made them an effective substitute for virtue. Whenever a society has a concept of heresy and orthodoxy, orthodoxy becomes a substitute for virtue. You can be the worst person in the world, but as long as you’re orthodox you’re better than everyone who isn’t. This makes orthodoxy very attractive to bad people.

[…]

One aspect of social media that surprised almost everyone at first was the popularity of outrage. Users seemed to like being outraged. We’re so used to this idea now that we take it for granted, but really it’s pretty strange. Being outraged is not a pleasant feeling. You wouldn’t expect people to seek it out. But they do. And above all, they want to share it.

[…]

For the press there was money in wokeness. But they weren’t the only ones. That was one of the biggest differences between the two waves of political correctness: the first was driven almost entirely by amateurs, but the second was often driven by professionals. For some it was their whole job. By 2010 a new class of administrators had arisen whose job was basically to enforce wokeness. They played a role similar to that of the political commissars who got attached to military and industrial organizations in the USSR: they weren’t directly in the flow of the organization’s work, but watched from the side to ensure that nothing improper happened in the doing of it.

[…]

This new class of bureaucrats pursued a woke agenda as if their jobs depended on it, because they did. If you hire people to keep watch for a particular type of problem, they’re going to find it, because otherwise there’s no justification for their existence.

[…]

The election of Donald Trump in 2016 also accelerated wokeness, particularly in the press, where outrage now meant traffic. Trump made the New York Times a lot of money: headlines during his first administration mentioned his name at about four times the rate of previous presidents.

[…]

Twitter, which was arguably the hub of wokeness, was bought by Elon Musk in order to neutralize it, and he seems to have succeeded — and not, incidentally, by censoring left-wing users the way Twitter used to censor right-wing ones, but without censoring either.

[…]

Is there a simple, principled way to deal with wokeness? I think there is: to use the customs we already have for dealing with religion. Wokeness is effectively a religion, just with God replaced by protected classes. It’s not even the first religion of this kind; Marxism had a similar form, with God replaced by the masses. And we already have well-established customs for dealing with religion within organizations. You can express your own religious identity and explain your beliefs, but you can’t call your coworkers infidels if they disagree, or try to ban them from saying things that contradict its doctrines, or insist that the organization adopt yours as its official religion.

[…]

The more general problem — how to prevent similar outbreaks of aggressively performative moralism — is of course harder. Here we’re up against human nature. There will always be prigs. And in particular there will always be the enforcers among them, the aggressively conventional-minded. These people are born that way. Every society has them. So the best we can do is to keep them bottled up.

We all laughed and laughed at the lunacy of Political Correctness…

We don’t like to admit signaling motivations

January 12th, 2025

We want people to think we’re smart, healthy, and rich, Robin Hanson notes, but we tend to signal indirectly:

For example, we signal wealth via visible consumption, instead of via directly showing our asset portfolios or bank accounts. We signal intelligence and knowledge via large vocabularies, mansplaining, and school degrees. We signal health via sport achievement, surviving harsh environments, and drinking heavily without falling down.

All of these activities take up big fractions of our time and energies. So why don’t we instead signal in more direct cheaper ways?

A simple explanation that I’ve often heard, and which makes sense to me, is that we don’t like to admit signaling motivations.

[…]

But if we were each willing to admit that most other people do a lot of signaling, even if we personally do not, we should be open to coordinating to promote more direct signals. For example, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Iceland have all at times given the public access to (parts of) individual tax records. And the easier we made it to look up someone’s income or wealth, the less people would need to signal those things via consumption.

We could similarly require health tests, and annual IQ and/or knowledge tests, and post their results for all to see.

Both “Elton” and “van” were added much later

January 11th, 2025

Voyage of the Space Beagle by A. E. van VogtI recently went back and read “Black Destroyer,” a science fiction short story by Canadian-American writer A. E. van Vogt, first published in Astounding SF in July 1939 and later combined with several other short stories to form the novel The Voyage of the Space Beagle, because the protagonist of the story, Coeurl — pronounced “curl”? — is a large, intelligent, black, cat-like alien that inspired D&D’s displacer beast.

The monster was introduced in the game’s first supplement, Greyhawk (1975), as “a puma-like creature with six legs and a pair of tentacles which grow from its shoulders,” a physical description that matches the story’s, but there the similarity ends.

Displacer Beast 1E Stat BlockThe story’s anti-hero is intelligent, if hungry and impulsive, and easily controls “vibrations,” a term that seems to include radio waves, the electricity in the ship’s electronics, the vibrations emitted by the human explorers’ weapons, and even the structure of space-age metal walls. It craves id, its term for phosphorus, which it drains from its victims. (The later novel changes this to potassium.)

One exotic power Coeurl does not have is the one the Dungeons & Dragons monster is named for, its ability to appear to be several feet away from its actual position. I don’t know where that came from.

Anyway, “Black Destroyer” arguably kicks off the Golden Age of Science Fiction:

The same July 1939 issue of Astounding also contained Isaac Asimov’s first story to appear in the magazine, “Trends”, while the next issue included the first story by Robert A. Heinlein, “Life-Line”, and the next, Theodore Sturgeon’s, “Ether Breather”. As a result, this issue is described as the start of the Golden Age of Science Fiction.

I recognized A. E. van Vogt‘s names as one of the old masters of sci-fi, but I was never sure how to pronounce his seemingly Dutch name properly:

Alfred Elton van Vogt (/væn vo?t/ VAN VOHT; April 26, 1912 – January 26, 2000) was a Canadian-born American science fiction writer. […] The Science Fiction Writers of America named him their 14th Grand Master in 1995 (presented 1996).

[…]

Alfred Vogt (both “Elton” and “van” were added much later) was born on April 26, 1912, on his grandparents’ farm in Edenburg, Manitoba, a tiny (and now defunct) Russian Mennonite community east of Gretna, Manitoba, Canada, in the Mennonite West Reserve. He was the third of six children born to Heinrich “Henry” Vogt and Aganetha “Agnes” Vogt (née Buhr), both of whom were born in Manitoba and grew up in heavily immigrant communities. Until he was four, van Vogt spoke only Plautdietsch at home.

[…]

He added the middle name “Elton” at some point in the mid-1930s, and at least one confessional story (1937′s “To Be His Keeper”) was sold to the Toronto Star, who misspelled his name “Alfred Alton Bogt” in the byline. Shortly thereafter, he added the “van” to his surname, and from that point forward he used the name “A. E. van Vogt” both personally and professionally.

Plautdietsch?

Plautdietsch (pronounced [?pla?t.dit?]) or Mennonite Low German is a Low Prussian dialect of East Low German with Dutch influence that developed in the 16th and 17th centuries in the Vistula delta area of Royal Prussia.

[…]

Plautdietsch was a Low German dialect like others until it was taken by Mennonite settlers to the southwest of the Russian Empire starting in 1789. From there it evolved and subsequent waves of migration brought it to North America, starting in 1873.

Another van Vogt story that went into The Voyage of the Space Beagle, “Discord in Scarlet,” describes an alien boarding a human ship to implant parasitic eggs in their stomachs. Van Vogt brought a case against 20th Century Fox for Alien copying his work. They settled out of court.

We keep everything we used to have and add some more

January 10th, 2025

In Praise of Commercial Culture by Tyler CowenWhen Bryan Caplan first read a draft of Tyler Cowen’s In Praise of Commercial Culture 15 years ago, he thought Cowen was mostly crazy:

A combination of my reverence for classical music and Randian contempt for modern culture made me strongly reject Tyler’s claim that the state of the arts has never been better.

Fifteen years later, I have to admit that he was largely right. From the standpoint of the consumer, the supply of great art has clearly never been better. And even from the standpoint of the producer, it is easy to argue that, overall, this is the best of times

[…]

First with digitization, and now with the Internet, consumers’ situation practically has to improve every year, because we keep everything we used to have, and add some more.

[…]

When I was a kid, if it wasn’t at the local store, you basically couldn’t get it. You probably wouldn’t even hear about it. This is truly an area where the Internet has changed everything.

[…]

If your goal is to communicate with informed, thoughtful people who share your tastes, the Internet has made that incredibly easy. It’s probably a lot easier to find someone to discuss Mahler today than it was during Mahler’s heyday.

[…]

One of Tyler’s best points: The past often looks better than the present if you compare the best to the best. There is no living composer as great as Bach. Nevertheless, the present looks much better than the past if you compare the fifth-best to the fifth-best. Who even wants to listen to the fifth-best Baroque composer? But the fifth-best punk rock band (say, the Dead Kennedys) is excellent.

Because Britain gained so little, her commitment to the peace was correspondingly weak

January 9th, 2025

Napoleon ofby Andrew RobertsOn Thursday, March 25, 1802, after nearly six months of negotiations, Andrew Roberts explains (in Napoleon: A Life), France and Britain signed a peace treaty at Amiens:

France had kept all her ‘natural’ frontiers up to the Rhine and the Alps, retained hegemony over western Europe, and had all her colonies restored to her. Yet in a sense Joseph and Talleyrand had been too successful: because Britain gained so little, her commitment to the peace was correspondingly weak.

[…]

On the conclusion of the Peace of Amiens, around 5,000 Britons descended on Paris. Some were curious, some wanted to see the Louvre collections, some wanted to use that excuse to visit the fleshpots of the Palais-Royal (which did a roaring trade), some wanted to renew old friendships and almost all of them wanted to meet or at least catch a glimpse of the First Consul.

[…]

The Irish MP John Leslie Foster attended one of Napoleon’s levées at the Tuileries, and described him as:

delicately and gracefully made; his hair a dark brown crop, thin and lank; his complexion smooth, pale and sallow; his eyes grey, but very animated; his eyebrows light brown, thin and projecting. All his features, particularly his mouth and nose, fine, sharp, defined, and expressive beyond description … He speaks deliberately, but very fluently, with particular emphasis, and in a rather low tone of voice. While he speaks, his features are still more expressive than his words. Expressive of what? … A pleasing melancholy, which, whenever he speaks, relaxes into the most agreeable and gracious smile you can conceive … He has more unaffected dignity than I could conceive in man.

Similarly, a former captive of the French called Sinclair wrote of ‘the grace and fascination of his smile’, and a Captain Usher said he had ‘dignified manners’.

[…]

Napoleon took this opportunity to infiltrate spies to make plans of Irish harbours, but they were soon unmasked and repatriated.

Why is India still so poor?

January 8th, 2025

India is by far the poorest country Bryan Caplan has ever visited:

While I am well aware that life in India has drastically improved since 1991, the poverty that remains is still pretty horrifying. Uber drivers were lucky to net ten dollars a day. In every city I visited, I saw children under the age of ten begging in the midst of chaotic street traffic. Sometimes they were with their moms or older siblings, but these pitiful kids usually seemed to be all on their own. While most of them were inured to their plight, I also witnessed a few sidelined child beggars crying their hearts out with no one to comfort them. All Effective Altruism aside, I was tempted to hand each of them a day’s worth of rupees. But I didn’t. The situation was so hellish I felt paralyzed.

Why is India still so poor? “Lack of human capital” is only a minor problem. Even the lowest-skilled Indian workers I saw could easily prosper in the United States as drivers, waiters, cooks, maids, and janitors. “Dysfunctional culture” is also a distraction. Ordinary Indians have a great work ethic, grace under pressure, and passable English.

OK, so why is India still so poor? All libertarian bias aside, India’s central problem is absurd regulation and state ownership. Absurd how? To start: The Indian government strictly protects legal employees, so 90%+ of Indians work “informally.” Our bus driver to Agra was required to take a rest stop every two hours — in a country packed with tuk-tuk drivers zooming around like maniacs. The government caps the maximum size of farms — and bars foreigners (including Non-Resident Indians!) from owning farms at all. A great way to strangle the food supply and impoverish farmers at the same time. The Indian government also crushes construction, most notably with its infamous Floor Area Ratio regulation — in a country where plenty of people sleep on the streets. Developers aren’t even allowed to build skyscrapers in slums — and housing prices in major cities rival those in top Western cities. What about state ownership? Locals told me that private Indian schools cost parents one-tenth as much as public Indian schools cost taxpayers.

Indians often speak of British influence, for good and ill. No one, however, spoke of Soviet influence, which was strong from India’s independence until the USSR’s 1991 collapse. Independent India aped the Soviets’ “Five-Year Plans” until 2017, which probably explains the crazier agricultural policies. For me, the Soviet influence was most blatant at the airports. Not only are they ridiculously bureaucratic, with two or three times the normal number of redundant paperwork checks; India is also the only country I ever visited that makes it hard to leave. Seriously, what were they planning on doing to me if my exit papers were not in order?

India is the most unequal country I have ever visited. Officially, granted, it’s more equal than the U.S. But I strongly disbelieve the official statistics. In India, the worst slums I’ve ever seen are walking distance from some of the most lavish malls I’ve ever seen. These malls were vast and packed, their prices were as high as northern Virginia’s, and almost none of the customers were foreign. The upshot is that plenty of rich Indians were spending as much on a fast food lunch or a two pints of ice cream as an Uber driver earns all day.

India is the filthiest country I have ever visited. Outside a few prime locations, garbage and rubble line the streets. Skinny stray animals — including stereotypical sacred cows — abound. 98% of the inhabited areas I saw were comparable to the bottom third of Palermo, Italy. And that’s saying a lot!

India has the most frightening traffic of any country I have ever visited. Walking from one tourist site to another — or even from your hotel to the closest restaurant — is almost impossible. Usable sidewalks are virtually non-existent. Except in the dead of night, the roads are jammed with a kaleidoscope of buses, cars, tuk-tuks, pushcarts, bicycles, horse-drawn wagons, random cattle, and stray dogs. The three times I tried walking, I ended up fleeing for safety in a matter of minutes. My taxi driver assured me that the Jama Masjid was only two minutes away on foot. But after vainly trying to navigate the traffic, I beat a hasty retreat without even gazing upon the famous mosque.

The Romantic Era never ended

January 7th, 2025

Fans of classical music often lament the modern implosion of the genre, Bryan Caplan explains:

We had the Baroque Period, usually dated from 1600-1750. We had the Classical Period, usually dated from 1750-1825. We had the Romantic Period, usually dated from 1825-1900. Ever since, we’ve been stuck in the Modern Period: 1901-present.

When the characteristically atonal music of the Modern Period first appeared, many predicted that fans would eventually come to love it, but almost no one sincerely has. The only widely beloved post-1900 composers in the classical repertoire are Late Romantics like Rachmaninoff and Shostakovich. Since their heyday, classical fans periodically curse the stars: “How come no one continues to compose in the greatest of all musical genres?”

It’s true, I’ll grant, that over the last century, little notable music has been written in the genres of 1600-1825. The Romantic Era, however, is still going strong. […] Though they’re rarely performed live, billions of people enjoy them on screens big and small.

I’m speaking, of course, of soundtracks. And while it’s tempting to dismiss them as insufferably low-brow “background music,” I maintain that the best soundtracks of the post-war era compare favorably to notable compositions of the official Romantic Period. While I doubt that any soundtrack equals or exceeds the peaks, many are at the 80th or even the 90th percentile of quality of 19th-century compositions.

His recommendations:

  • Cloud Atlas (2012), composed by Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer and Reinhold Heil
  • The Lord of the Rings (2001–2003), composed by Howard Shore
  • 127 Hours (2010), composed by A.R. Rahman
  • The Last of the Mohicans (1992), composed by Trevor Jones
  • Lawrence of Arabia (1962), composed by Maurice Jarre
  • Flukt (2012), composed by Magnus Beite
  • The Shrine (2010), composed by Ryan Shore
  • Gladiator (2000), composed by Hans Zimmer and Lisa Gerard
  • The Red Violin (1999), composed by John Corigliano
  • X2: X-Men United (2003), composed by John Ottman
  • The Usual Suspects (1995), composed by John Ottman
  • The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (1966), composed by Ennio Morricone
  • Snow White and the Huntsman (2012), composed by James Newton Howard
  • Legends of the Fall (1995), composed by James Horner
  • Star Wars (1977), composed by John Williams

I would add Conan The Barbarian (1982), composed by Basil Poledouris:

Robert Harris’s Fatherland takes place in an alternate 1964, where the Nazis won

January 6th, 2025

Fatherland by Robert HarrisI recently listened to the audiobook edition of Robert Harris’s Fatherland, which takes place in an alternate 1964, where the Nazis won:

The German armies on the Eastern Front launch a major offensive into the Caucasus in 1942, cutting the flow of oil to the Red Army. With its armies immobilized, the USSR surrenders in 1943. German intelligence learns that the British are reading their Enigma code, and sends false intelligence to lure the British fleet to destruction. The U-Boat campaign against the United Kingdom increases, starving Britain into surrender or armistice by 1944. The United States does not invade Europe and withdraws its troops from Britain prior to 1944, and instead concentrates on defeating Japan. Germany tests its first atom bomb in 1946, and also in 1946 forces the U.S. to sign a peace treaty after firing a V-3 missile that explodes above New York City to demonstrate Germany’s ability to attack the U.S. with long-range missiles. Having achieved victory, Germany annexes Eastern Europe and much of the USSR into the Greater German Reich, and corrals the rest of Europe into a pro-German trading bloc, the European Community. The surviving areas of the USSR are deliberately left alone to fight an endless guerrilla war with German forces in the Ural mountains, according to the Nazi belief that a continual war will hold Nazi society together. By 1964, the United States and the Greater German Reich are caught in a Cold War and an arms race to develop more sophisticated nuclear weapons and space technology.

The novel takes place from April 14 to April 20, 1964, as Germany prepares for Adolf Hitler’s 75th birthday celebrations. A visit by the President of the United States, Joseph P. Kennedy, is planned as part of a gradual détente between the United States and the Greater German Reich. The Holocaust has been explained away to the satisfaction of many as merely the relocation of most of the Jewish population to the East into areas where communication and travel are still very poor, explaining why it is impossible for most of their relatives in the West to contact them. Despite this, many Germans are aware — or suspect — that the government has somehow permanently eliminated the Jewish population.

The Greater German Reich stretches from Alsace-Lorraine in the west to the Ural Mountains in the east. Austria, Czechoslovakia, Luxembourg, Poland, the Baltic States, the Ukraine, European Russia, and the areas ceded by Germany under the Treaty of Versailles have all been annexed directly into the Reich. Major cities in the expanded Germany include old German cities such as Berlin (has a population of 10 million in 1964) and Hamburg, but also include newly-annexed cities such as Moscow, Tblisi, Ufa, St. Petersburg, Krakow, and Sevastopol, which has been renamed “Theodorichshafen”. Berlin has been extensively remodelled as Hitler’s “capital of capitals,” designed according to the wishes of Hitler and his top architect, Albert Speer. By 1964, the city boasts gargantuan Nazi monuments such as the Great Hall (which holds over 150,000 people), a mammoth arch inscribed with the names of the German soldiers killed in the two World Wars, and vast, severe, granite civil buildings including Hitler’s vast palace, the Grand Avenue lined with captured Soviet artillery, and the headquarters of the powerless European Union.

The rest of Europe, excluding Switzerland, has been corraled by Germany into a European Economic Community, formed from the nations of Norway, Sweden, Finland (which has absorbed Karelia from Russia), Denmark, Iceland, the United Kingdom (which has absorbed Ireland), France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Holland, Italy (it is unspecified if Mussolini is still in control of Italy), Yugoslavia, a greatly expanded Hungary which has absorbed Slovakia and much of neighbouring Romania, which has returned to its pre-1918 borders, Bulgaria, Albania, an expanded Macedonia, Greece, and Turkey. A European Parliament is based in Berlin but is virtually powerless. At the European Parliament building, the flags of the member states are dwarfed by a large swastika flag, symbolising the immense power that Germany has in the E.C. of 1964. The nations of the E.C., despite being nominally free under their own governments and leaders (such as General Franco and Edward VIII), are closely watched by Germany. Their military forces are only just sufficient to police their empires, they are under constant surveillance by Berlin, and the rest of Europe is subordinate to Germany in all but name. For unknown reasons, Switzerland has not been annexed by the Reich and is not a member of the European Community. As a result, Switzerland in 1964 is the only free country in Europe.

It’s not Bevin Alexander’s strategy for How Hitler Could Have Won World War II, but it’s plausible. They don’t go on to dam the Strait of Gibraltar and drain the Mediterranean as they do in Philip K. Dick’s The Man in the High Castle.

Harris’s emphasis is not on military strategy though. He portrays a 1964 Berlin rather similar to our own, under a different totalitarian regime.

Let slip the dogs of (urban) war

January 5th, 2025

John Spencer shares some lessons from Oketz, the Israel Defense Forces’ Specialized Canine Unit:

The IDF’s military dog program was heavily shaped by the guiding influence of Professor Rudolphina Menzel, a pioneer in canine psychology. By the 1980s, the program became formally institutionalized as Oketz (“sting,” in Hebrew). Since then, the unit has played pivotal roles in every major conflict involving the IDF, from the 2006 Lebanon War to ongoing operations in Gaza.

Oketz sources nearly all of its military working dogs—99 percent—from breeders in Europe. The dogs are primarily Belgian Malinois, with some German Shepherds and Labradors. Each year, the IDF procures approximately seventy dogs, ensuring they are one year old to strike the right balance between developmental maturity and training flexibility. Their rigorous and multiphase training lasts up to two years and emphasizes bonding between handlers and dogs for operational cohesion.

Each Oketz dog is trained for a specialized role. Some are used tactically as attack dogs to neutralize threats in combat, while others work in explosive ordnance detection. Still others work to locate survivors or find the remains of fallen soldiers or civilians in disaster or combat scenarios. Among the most innovative ways Oketz employs its dogs is training some specifically for underground warfare to operating in tunnels, a frequent feature of combat in Gaza.

A part of me wants to see an underground warfare unit using dachshunds — which were of course bred for badger hunting.

During IDF operations in southern Lebanon in the 1990s, one of the primary threats was the widespread presence of improvised explosive devices planted along key routes by Hezbollah. In response, Oketz developed specialized training and equipment to address these challenges. Dogs were equipped with radio packs — essentially, small receivers and speakers that enabled handlers to transmit commands remotely via radio. This allowed the dogs to operate ahead of their handlers, covering long distances and clearing dangerous routes. This capability was essential in the era before the widespread use of cameras on dogs, and it became a hallmark of the IDF’s dog program.

During operations in Gaza over more than a year, small cameras mounted on dogs have provided real-time intelligence, allowing handlers to assess tunnel systems, detect booby traps, and identify combatants without exposing soldiers to direct risk.

This would take the visual of tactical dachshunds to the next level:

The IDF’s introduction of protective rubberized booties for dogs exemplifies the type of adaptation required by the unique challenges of urban environments. Dogs’ paws are tough — much better able to handle rough ground than the feet of humans, of course. So allowing dogs to work without any protective covering for their paws is often not a problem. But urban areas present unique dangers, with IDF dogs facing injuries from rubble, glass, and other hazards in Gaza’s war-torn streets. Equipping them with booties, along with ensuring teams carry essential training tools like bite sleeves, underscores the importance of anticipating and addressing operational challenges.

Darwin and Wallace were not just Victorian naturalists who traveled the tropics

January 4th, 2025

Growth of Biological Thought by Ernst MayrMidway through his 900 page history of biology, The Growth of Biological Thought, zoologist Ernst Mayr notes that Alfred Wallace independently developed a theory of speciation by means of natural selection after Darwin had been sitting on his evolutionary theory for two decades:

Reading Wallace’s 1858 paper “On the Tendency of Species to Form Varieties” spooked Darwin. He did not want to be scooped. Within a year Darwin had rushed his material into an “abstract which… must necessarily be imperfect” as it only gave “the general conclusions” of his theory, and offered only a “few facts in illustration” to support them. We know this abstract well: it was published as The Origin of Species.

[…]

[Mayr] suggests that Darwin and Wallace were not just Victorian naturalists who traveled the tropics — they were Victorian naturalists who traveled the tropics with a copy of Charles Lyell’s Principles of Geology in hand.

Charles Lyell was an essentialist and a creationist. He answered questions like “what are the causes for the extinction of species?” and “how did the specific species we see in the fossil record arise?” in an explicitly essentialist and creationist fashion. These answers were not sound—but the questions were. These questions “were encountered by Darwin when he read the Principles of Geology during and after the voyage of the Beagle. As a result of Lyell’s writings, these questions became the center of Darwin’s research program.” This was all true for Wallace as well.

Mayr argues that the “Lyell-Darwin relationship illustrates in an almost textbook-like fashion a frequently occurring relationship among scientists.” This is not quite the relationship between pupil and teacher, or that of the “forerunner,” but something else. It is the relationship between the question-poser and the answer-finder.

Tanner Greer sees examples of the same dynamic in history and social science often:
Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire by Edward N. Luttwak

To pick one example, Edward Luttwak’s book Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire is wrong in every one of its essential arguments. So conclusively wrong is this book that I do not think it should be included on any syllabus. Since Luttwak published that book in 1976, a dozen studies of Roman frontier deployments, Roman strategic culture, and Roman decision making have been published. All offer a steady refutation of Luttwak’s work. However, not one of those books or articles would have been written without Luttwak’s work. Luttwak was wrong in every particular except the questions he asked—but those questions were good enough to create an entire subfield of research. May all our errors do such good!

The Lancet operates in a hunter-killer team

January 3rd, 2025

Back in November, David Hambling noted that Russian Lancet strikes had fallen off:

The Lancet is a long-range killer, striking at distances of over 25 miles and with a shaped-charge warhead capable of knocking out tanks. It has been notably effective in damaging Ukrainian artillery, as the drone can pursue moving targets. But the number of strikes recorded by Russian OSINT site Lostarmour – which has a semi-official role providing data to Lancet makers ZALA – has been falling, from 180 in August to 81 in September, 100 in October and, with more than half the month gone, just 24 in November so far.

The interceptors are not bringing down many Lancets: instead they are taking out the reconnaissance and communication assets which enable them to find targets.

The Lancet operates in a hunter-killer team with ZALA reconnaissance drones. These with survey an area and identify and locate a target. Once this is confirmed, the Lancet is launched. The reconnaissance drone may also act as a flying radio relay, making the Lancet more resistant to jamming. It will observe the strike, and carry out post-strike damage assessment to determine whether to send a follow-up attack. In many cases the LostArmour videos include multiple strikes against the same target until it is destroyed.

Everyone liked her except the man Napoleon selected to marry her

January 2nd, 2025

Napoleon ofby Andrew RobertsAt 9 p.m. on Monday, January 4, 1802, Andrew Roberts explains (in Napoleon: A Life), Napoleon’s brother Louis was married to Josephine’s daughter Hortense by the mayor of Paris’ 1st arrondissement:

It was only one of a large number of marriages arranged by Napoleon, whose involvement in the nuptial lives of others was almost uniformly disastrous–certainly so in this case, as very soon Louis, who was in love with someone else at the time, could hardly bear to share a room with Hortense, and vice versa. Napoleon treated Hortense as his own daughter. Everyone liked her except the man Napoleon selected to marry her.

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Reviving the old royal practice by which generals and senior dignitaries had to ask the head of state’s permission to marry, Napoleon attempted to marry his generals into Ancien Régime families. The marriages that Napoleon opposed, such as Lucien’s and Jérôme’s (to his first wife), tended to be happier than the ones that he and Josephine matchmade.