Ideas Behind Their Time

Monday, December 13th, 2010

We’re all familiar with ideas ahead of their time — like da Vinci’s helicopter or Babbage’s analytical engine — and ideas of their time — like calculus and evolution — but, Alex Tabarrok reminds us, there are also ideas behind their time — ideas that could have been discovered much earlier but were not.

As an economist, he notes that experimental economics could have been invented by Smith or Ricardo, but it wasn’t.

You can think of such ideas as time-traveler technologies — technologies that could be implemented by an enterprising time-traveler without building up dozens of ancillary technologies first.

For instance, in Lest Darkness Fall, American archaeologist Martin Padway finds himself transported to Ostrogoth-ruled Rome, where he introduces Arabic numerals and double-entry bookkeeping, which convinces a money-lender to fund his copper brandy-making still. With the profits from that, he goes on to make a printing press.

By contrast, in Poul Anderson’s The Man Who Came Early, an American MP with an engineering degree finds that he can’t apply any of his high-tech knowledge in low-tech Viking Iceland. He destroys the blacksmith’s shop when he tries to use modern high-temperature methods, he suggests impractical ideas, like deep-keeled sailing ships, which you can’t pull ashore, and so on.

Anyway, I would expect most medieval innovations to be behind their time, in the sense that the Romans could have implemented them: stirrups, horse collars, horse shoes, wheelbarrows, stern-mounted rudders, printing presses, Arabic numerals, double-entry bookkeeping, distillation, functional buttons, trebuchets, Gothic arches, etc.

With their engineering and organizational talent, the Romans likely could have implemented a number of 18th- and 19th-century technologies. We tend to think of railroads as depending on steel wheels on steel rails with steam engines to drive them, but early railroads, or wagonways, used wood wheels on cut stone tracks with draft animals to pull them — in ancient Greece and Rome — and modern streetcars started out as horse-drawn trolley cars. Could the Romans have introduced slave-drawn streetcars? Or stage coaches?

I wouldn’t say the gun was an idea behind its time, but the stream­lined bullet might be. Up through the era of flintlock smoothbore muskets, the usual bullet was a spherical musket ball. Anyone who has thrown a soccer ball and an American football knows that a round ball is nowhere near as aerodynamic as a pointed bullet shape. In fact, the ancient Greeks and Romans knew this too — their slingers threw lead sling bullets that looked just like tiny American footballs.

Longer bullets aren’t stable without the spin imparted by rifling though, and the tight fit required to take advantage of rifling makes it terribly slow to load a musket — until you introduce the Minié ball, which renders the rifled musket quite deadly:

One of the most famous was the Minié system, invented by French Army Captain Claude Etienne Minié, which relied on a conical bullet (known as a Minié ball) with a hollow skirt at the base of the bullet. When fired, the skirt would expand from the pressure of the exploding charge and grip the rifling as the round was fired. The better seal gave more power, as less gas escaped past the bullet, which combined with the fact that for the same bore (caliber) diameter a long bullet was heavier than a round ball. The extra grip also spun the bullet more consistently, which increased the range from about 50 yards for a smooth bore musket to about 300 yards for a rifle using the Minié system. The expanding skirt of the Minié ball also solved the problem that earlier tight fitting bullets were difficult to load as black powder residue fouled the inside of the barrel. The Minié system allowed conical bullets to be loaded into rifles just as quickly as round balls in smooth bores, which allowed rifle muskets to replace muskets on the battlefield. Minié system rifles, notably the U.S. Springfield and the British Enfield of the early 1860s, featured prominently in the U.S. Civil War, due to their enhanced power and accuracy.

I’m not sure why you couldn’t take that idea back to the American Revolution or the French and Indian War.

Give the enemy a target for his wrath

Sunday, December 12th, 2010

It’s always wise to give the enemy a target for his wrath, John Plaster (The Ultimate Sniper) says — a false position to take the counterfire that’s certain to come:

The enemy usually will have a fair idea of where your shot originated, probably to within 20 or 30 degrees. Depending on how terrain and weather affect your muzzle blast, he’ll likely guess your distance to within 100 or 200 yards. Within such a sector, he’ll instantly shoot up any obvious sniper hide, hence my repeated warnings about being inconspicuous.

But the corollary to blending in is to ensure there’s something else nearby that will divert his fire away from you. Capt. H.W. McBride, the World War I sniper, usually located his hide beside or below a natural dummy position. He wrote at length of a barn that the Germans repeatedly blasted, but it was well above and to his rear. The only advice I add is to make sure you’re not too close or a long or short round might hit you.

If there’s no natural dummy position, you must construct one, which doesn’t need to be very elaborate. Just a few straight lines in the midst of foliage can do the trick, such as stacking a few logs or scraping together an ankle-high berm. And recognize a long-known aspect of deception: it’s far easier to reinforce what your opponent thinks already than it is to get him thinking something entirely different.

Recall, too, that there’s nothing like a bit of movement to attract attention. During World War II, a Japanese sniper would jerk a distant bush with a string to diver fire, a tactic that caused his opponents not to cooly conclude a bush was moving but to declare excitedly, “There he is!” On a more subtle level, Captain McBride often tied a piece of red closth to nearby barbed wire because it invariably drew German observers’ attention away from his hide.

Anticipate how the enemy will view your area, how he will scan it, what he’ll see. And remember that, psychologically, he needs the gratification of returning your fire.

Five Sci-Fi Children’s Books

Sunday, December 12th, 2010

I’m ready to buy these five sci-fi children’s books:





Amazon Prime

Sunday, December 12th, 2010

Amazon Prime may be the most ingenious and effective customer loyalty program in all of e-commerce, Brad Stone says, if not retail in general:

Analysts describe Prime as one of the main factors driving Amazon’s stock price — up 296 percent in the last two years — and the main reason Amazon’s sales grew 30 percent during the recession while other retailers flailed. At the same time, Prime has proven exceedingly difficult for rivals to copy: It allows Amazon to exploit its wide selection, low prices, network of third-party merchants, and finely tuned distribution system, while also keying off that faintly irrational human need to maximize the benefits of a club you have already paid to join.
[...]
The company declines to disclose specifics about the program, though analysts estimate it has more than 4 million members in the U.S., a small slice of Amazon’s 121 million active buyers worldwide. Analysts say Prime members increase their purchases on the site by about 150 percent after they join and may be responsible for as much as 20 percent of Amazon’s overall sales in the U.S. The company’s executives acknowledge only that the program gets people to buy more — and more kinds of items — on the site. “In all my years here, I don’t remember anything that has been as successful at getting customers to shop in new product lines,” says Robbie Schwietzer, vice-president of Amazon Prime and an eight-year veteran of the company.

Law and the Zombie Apocalypse

Saturday, December 11th, 2010

The scenario depicted in The Walking Dead raises the issue of law and the zombie apocalypse:

Characters in post-apocalyptic scenarios often resort to drastic measures to survive, but are they legally justified? While the law recognizes a defense of necessity, the defense has limits. In particular, murder (perhaps in the form of cannibalism) cannot be justified by necessity.

In The Walking Dead characters engage in cannibalism to survive. In the lawless environment of the comics & TV series, this seems justified, but what if law and order were restored? There is no statute of limitations for murder, and as it turns out, even the necessity of survival does not justify cannibalism. Note that I’m talking about cannibalism that involves killing a person, not eating someone who died from other causes.

In the law-school-famous case of R. v Dudley and Stephens, 14 QBD 273 DC (1884), it was held that necessity is not a defense to murder. In that case, four shipwrecked men adrift in a lifeboat eventually resorted to killing and eating the youngest and weakest of the crew. The three remaining men were picked up, whereupon they admitted what happened. Two were charged with and convicted of murder and sentenced to death, though the appellate judge expected mercy, and indeed they were only sentenced to six months imprisonment. The third survivor, who had been less keen on the scheme, was not charged so that he could be called as a witness, though he had also eaten the victim.

The shipwreck case is analogous to a post-apocalyptic situation in many ways. The legal system is effectively suspended, the chances of survival are remote, and cannibalism may be a literal necessity. But while the defense of necessity may excuse trespassing, looting, and a multitude of other sins, murder remains beyond the pale.

Hiding In Front

Saturday, December 11th, 2010

If you’re hiding from the enemy, you should obviously hide behind foliage to your front, but, John Plaster (The Ultimate Sniper) notes, you should also hide in front of foliage to your back:

During World War I, Capt. H.W. McBride found he could stand still with a tree trunk to his back and be invisible to Germans 500 yards away — just wearing his ordinary khaki uniform.

What’s Really Wrong with WikiLeaks

Friday, December 10th, 2010

Theodore Dalrymple offers his unusual take on what’s really wrong with WikiLeaks:

The idea behind WikiLeaks is that life should be an open book, that everything that is said and done should be immediately revealed to everybody, that there should be no secret agreements, deeds, or conversations. In the fanatically puritanical view of WikiLeaks, no one and no organization should have anything to hide. It is scarcely worth arguing against such a childish view of life.

The actual effect of WikiLeaks is likely to be profound and precisely the opposite of what it supposedly sets out to achieve. Far from making for a more open world, it could make for a much more closed one. Secrecy, or rather the possibility of secrecy, is not the enemy but the precondition of frankness. WikiLeaks will sow distrust and fear, indeed paranoia; people will be increasingly unwilling to express themselves openly in case what they say is taken down by their interlocutor and used in evidence against them, not necessarily by the interlocutor himself. This could happen not in the official sphere alone, but also in the private sphere, which it works to destroy. An Iron Curtain could descend, not just on Eastern Europe, but over the whole world. A reign of assumed virtue would be imposed, in which people would say only what they do not think and think only what they do not say.

The dissolution of the distinction between the private and public spheres was one of the great aims of totalitarianism. Opening and reading other people’s e-mails is not different in principle from opening and reading other people’s letters. In effect, WikiLeaks has assumed the role of censor to the world, a role that requires an astonishing moral grandiosity and arrogance to have assumed. Even if some evils are exposed by it, or some necessary truths aired, the end does not justify the means.

Lost Civilization Under Persian Gulf

Friday, December 10th, 2010

A new Current Anthropology paper points to a lost civilization under the Persian Gulf:

Jeffrey Rose, an archaeologist and researcher with the University of Birmingham in the U.K., says that the area in and around this “Persian Gulf Oasis” may have been host to humans for over 100,000 years before it was swallowed up by the Indian Ocean around 8,000 years ago. Rose’s hypothesis introduces a “new and substantial cast of characters” to the human history of the Near East, and suggests that humans may have established permanent settlements in the region thousands of years before current migration models suppose.

In recent years, archaeologists have turned up evidence of a wave of human settlements along the shores of the Gulf dating to about 7,500 years ago. “Where before there had been but a handful of scattered hunting camps, suddenly, over 60 new archaeological sites appear virtually overnight,” Rose said. “These settlements boast well-built, permanent stone houses, long-distance trade networks, elaborately decorated pottery, domesticated animals, and even evidence for one of the oldest boats in the world.”

But how could such highly developed settlements pop up so quickly, with no precursor populations to be found in the archaeological record? Rose believes that evidence of those preceding populations is missing because it’s under the Gulf.

“Perhaps it is no coincidence that the founding of such remarkably well developed communities along the shoreline corresponds with the flooding of the Persian Gulf basin around 8,000 years ago,” Rose said. “These new colonists may have come from the heart of the Gulf, displaced by rising water levels that plunged the once fertile landscape beneath the waters of the Indian Ocean.”

Historical sea level data show that, prior to the flood, the Gulf basin would have been above water beginning about 75,000 years ago. And it would have been an ideal refuge from the harsh deserts surrounding it, with fresh water supplied by the Tigris, Euphrates, Karun, and Wadi Baton Rivers, as well as by underground springs. When conditions were at their driest in the surrounding hinterlands, the Gulf Oasis would have been at its largest in terms of exposed land area. At its peak, the exposed basin would have been about the size of Great Britain, Rose says.

Evidence is also emerging that modern humans could have been in the region even before the oasis was above water. Recently discovered archaeological sites in Yemen and Oman have yielded a stone tool style that is distinct from the East African tradition. That raises the possibility that humans were established on the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula beginning as far back as 100,000 years ago or more, Rose says. That is far earlier than the estimates generated by several recent migration models, which place the first successful migration into Arabia between 50,000 and 70,000 years ago.

I can’t help but think of the Hyborian Age.

It’s not camouflage if it doesn’t fit the surroundings

Friday, December 10th, 2010

It’s not camouflage if it doesn’t fit the surroundings, as this story from John Plaster (The Ultimate Sniper) reminds us:

I was flying backseat in an OV-10 armed FAC (forward air controller) bird over the Ho Chi Minh Trail when the pilot and I simultaneously noticed a long line of leafy clumps down the middle of a major road.

We knew the North Vietnamese trained their soldiers to squat motionlessly if caught in the open by an airplane. We flew past, not hinting we’d seen anything, but in fact we knew we’d just seen a 2-mile line of marching soldiers.

Had these men taken one sideward step so their leaves fit the overlapping jungle, they would have been home free.

As it was, we went into orbit just over the horizon and 10 minutes later inserted the first of more than 50 air strikes. We cancelled other CCC/SOG (Command and Control Central/Studies and Observation Group) operations for two days just to keep bombing them, achieving what must have been one of the highest cross-border BDAs (bomb damage assessments) in all of 1971 — and all because their camouflage didn’t fit their surroundings.

Lego Antikythera Mechanism

Friday, December 10th, 2010

It was just a matter of time until someone replicated the ancient Antikythera Mechanism in Lego:

Addendum: I found more detailed design information.

The Disheveled Old Mystic of Das Kapital

Thursday, December 9th, 2010

You can quickly see why Heinlein’s Starship Troopers would get labelled fascist — it mocks communism:

He had been droning along about “value,” comparing the Marxist theory with the orthodox “use” theory. Mr. Dubois had said, “Of course, the Marxian definition of value is ridiculous. All the work one cares to add will not turn a mud pie into an apple tart; it remains a mud pie, value zero. By corollary, unskillful work can easily subtract value; an untalented cook can turn wholesome dough and fresh green apples, valuable already, into an inedible mess, value zero. Conversely, a great chef can fashion of those same materials a confection of greater value than a commonplace apple tart, with no more effort than an ordinary cook uses to prepare an ordinary sweet.

“These kitchen illustrations demolish the Marxian theory of value — the fallacy from which the entire magnificent fraud of communism derives — and to illustrate the truth of the common-sense definition as measured in terms of use.”

Dubois had waved his stump at us. “Nevertheless — wake up, back there! — nevertheless the disheveled old mystic of Das Kapital, turgid, tortured, confused, and neurotic, unscientific, illogical, this pompous fraud Karl Marx, nevertheless had a glimmering of a very important truth. If he had possessed an analytical mind, he might have formulated the first adequate definition of value… and this planet might have been saved endless grief.

“Or might not,” he added. “You!”

I had sat up with a jerk.

“If you can’t listen, perhaps you can tell the class whether ‘value’ is a relative, or an absolute?”

I had been listening; I just didn’t see any reason not to listen with eyes closed and spine relaxed. But his question caught me out; I hadn’t read that day’s assignment. “An absolute,” I answered, guessing.

“Wrong,” he said coldly. ” ‘Value’ has no meaning other than in relation to living beings. The value of a thing is always relative to a particular person, is completely personal and different in quantity for each living human — ‘market value’ is a fiction, merely a rough guess at the average of personal values, all of which must be quantitatively different or trade would be impossible.” (I had wondered what Father would have said if he had heard “market value” called a “fiction” — snort in disgust, probably.)

“This very personal relationship, ‘value,’ has two factors for a human being: first, what he can do with a thing, its use to him… and second, what he must do to get it, its cost to him. There is an old song which asserts that ‘the best things in life are free.’ Not true! Utterly false! This was the tragic fallacy which brought on the decadence and collapse of the democracies of the twentieth century; those noble experiments failed because the people had been led to believe that they could simply vote for whatever they wanted… and get it, without toil, without sweat, without tears.

“Nothing of value is free. Even the breath of life is purchased at birth only through gasping effort and pain.” He had been still looking at me and added, “If you boys and girls had to sweat for your toys the way a newly born baby has to struggle to live you would be happier… and much richer. As it is, with some of you, I pity the poverty of your wealth. You! I’ve just awarded you the prize for the hundred-meter dash. Does it make you happy?”

“Uh, I suppose it would.”

“No dodging, please. You have the prize — here, I’ll write it out: ‘Grand prize for the championship, one hundred-meter sprint.’ ” He had actually come back to my seat and pinned it on my chest. “There! Are you happy? You value it — or don’t you?”

I was sore. First that dirty crack about rich kids — a typical sneer of those who haven’t got it — and now this farce. I ripped it off and chucked it at him.
Mr. Dubois had looked surprised. “It doesn’t make you happy?”

“You know darn well I placed fourth!”

“Exactly! The prize for first place is worthless to you… because you haven’t earned it. But you enjoy a modest satisfaction in placing fourth; you earned it. I trust that some of the somnambulists here understood this little morality play. I fancy that the poet who wrote that song meant to imply that the best things in life must be purchased other than with money — which is true — just as the literal meaning of his words is false. The best things in life are beyond money; their price is agony and sweat and devotion… and the price demanded for the most precious of all things in life is life itself — ultimate cost for perfect value.”

(From ChapterVI, page 75 in my old paperback edition.)

Adjusting Fire

Thursday, December 9th, 2010

John Plaster (The Ultimate Sniper) shares the cleverest real-world account of adjusting fire he’s come upon — from World War II, described in a 1953 article in American Rifleman — in which a spotter put a precision rifleman’s fire on a target that he couldn’t even see:

Using a 20x spotting scope, Robert Sears could discern a German machine gun firing away at 800 yards with such deadly effect that an infantry company could not cross a river.

He had a competitive rifleman comrade fire (using ordinary open sights) at what he called a “reference target” — a rock the rifleman could see, though he could not see the machine gun next.

Observing that bullet impact, Sears announced a sight change to put it closer to the machine gun nest — pay close heed — but had the rifleman fire again at the same rock, which was the only thing he could see that far away.

So, using his powerful 20x optic, Sears twice more adjusted the rifleman’ rounds; then, still aiming at that rock, the rifleman put fire right atop the machine fun position, “either a hit or so close that the machine gunner went down in a foxhole.”

That’s about as slick as it gets.

North Korea Massively Increases Its Special Forces

Thursday, December 9th, 2010

North Korea has been massively increasing its special forces in recent years:

The cash-strapped government of Kim Jong Il, which struggles to maintain and buy fuel for its aging tanks and armor, has concluded it cannot win a conventional war, according to U.S. and South Korean military officials.

But by combining huge numbers of special forces with artillery that can devastate Seoul and missiles that can pound all of South Korea, North Korea has found an affordable way to remain terrifying, ensure regime survival and deter a preemptive strike on the nuclear bombs that make it a player on the world stage, say U.S. and South Korean military analysts.

Further, their training has shifted to terrorist tactics developed by insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan:

In a conflict, tens of thousands of special forces members would try to infiltrate South Korea: by air in radar-evading biplanes, by ground through secret tunnels beneath the demilitarized zone (DMZ), and by sea aboard midget submarines and hovercraft, according to South Korean and U.S. military analysts.

Disguised in the uniforms of South Korean police and military personnel, special forces are also expected to try to walk into Seoul. Dressed as civilians, they may also arrive aboard passenger flights from Beijing and other foreign capitals.

“These are not your standard North Korean guys,” Bechtol said. “They are the best-trained, best-fed and most indoctrinated soldiers in the North. They know how to fight, and if they are caught, they are trained to kill themselves.”

Their primary mission, in the event of war, is to leapfrog the DMZ and create chaos among the 20.5 million residents of greater Seoul, while harassing South Korean and U.S. forces in rear areas, military and intelligence experts said.

There’s some debate about how special many of these special forces really are:

The number is now 180,000, according to the South Korean Defense Ministry. That’s a 50 percent increase since the South’s last official count three years ago. But Sharp, the U.S. commander here, puts the number at 80,000 (although that still dwarfs the special forces of any country, including the United States, which has about 51,000.)

Much of the difference appears to be a dispute over the definition of special forces. North Korea has retrained and reconfigured about 60,000 infantry troops as special forces in the past three years, South Korea says. The United States agrees that this reconfiguring has occurred, but it “does not count [retrained infantry] as special forces,” according to Maj. Todd Fleming, a spokesman for U.S. forces in Korea.

From this description, I’m not sure if they’re training for a war or a war movie:

Their low-tech, low-cost training includes throwing knives, firing poisonous darts and running up steep hills wearing backpacks filled with 60 pounds of rocks and sand, said Ha Tae-jun, a former South Korean commando who has debriefed captured members of the North’s special forces. They are also drilled in street warfare, chemical attacks, night fighting, martial arts, car theft and using spoons and forks as weapons, say South Korean government reports and military experts.

The North Korean special forces have a history of showing fighting spirit:

In 1968, a 31-member team attacked Blue House, the presidential residence in Seoul. Although they failed to assassinate President Park Chung-hee, they killed 68 South Koreans over the nine days it took to track them down. Several commandos committed suicide to avoid capture, one was unaccounted for and one was taken alive.

A Mumbai-style attack on Seoul certainly seems within their reach.

Making Each Shot Count

Wednesday, December 8th, 2010

John Plaster (The Ultimate Sniper) shares a little story about making each shot count:

Many years ago, while training Southeast Asian mercenaries, I’d challenge a student to assume his sexiest “assault” stance and riddle a nearby silhouette with full-auto fire.

Gleefully, he’d tuck his M16 or AK-47 beneath his armpit and, “brt-t-t-t-t-t-t,” 30 rounds would rip through the air — but go only God knows where.

The amazed students, upon examining the intact silhouette, could see that, despite sound and smoke, a lot of bullets carelessly sprayed will hit nothing. My point exactly.

Indeed, semi-auto fire is more likely to hit than full-auto. Of course, as a sniper trainer, Plaster takes it even further:

A sniper does not fire patterns or groups or average shots. He fires one shot over and over, and develops certain one-shot habits during practice fire that will carry over to real-world shooting.

Violence Never Solves Anything

Wednesday, December 8th, 2010

Starship Troopers by Robert HeinleinHeinlein’s Starship Troopers presents many ideas through Mr. Dubois:

I thought about it during the last session of our class in History and Moral Philosophy. H. & M. P. was different from other courses in that everybody had to take it but nobody had to pass it — and Mr. Dubois never seemed to care whether he got through to us or not. He would just point at you with the stump of his left arm (he never bothered with names) and snap a question. Then the argument would start.

But on the last day he seemed to be trying to find out what we had learned. One girl told him bluntly: “My mother says that violence never settles anything.”

“So?” Mr. Dubois looked at her bleakly. “I’m sure the city fathers of Carthage would be glad to know that. Why doesn’t your mother tell them so? Or why don’t you?”

They had tangled before — since you couldn’t flunk the course, it wasn’t necessary to keep Mr. Dubois buttered up. She said shrilly, “You’re making fun of me! Everybody knows that Carthage was destroyed!”

“You seemed to be unaware of it,” he said grimly. “Since you do know it, wouldn’t you say that violence had settled their destinies rather thoroughly? However, I was not making fun of you personally; I was heaping scorn on an inexcusably silly idea — a practice I shall always follow. Anyone who clings to the historically untrue — and thoroughly immoral — doctrine that `violence never settles anything’ I would advise to conjure up the ghosts of Napoleon Bonaparte and of the Duke of Wellington and let them debate it. The ghost of Hitler could referee, and the jury might well be the Dodo, the Great Auk, and the Passenger Pigeon. Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor, and the contrary opinion is wishful thinking at its worst. Breeds that forget this basic truth have always paid for it with their lives and freedoms.”

He sighed. “Another year, another class — and, for me, another failure. One can lead a child to knowledge but one cannot make him think.”

(From Chapter II — page 24 in my old paperback edition.)