Beginning Engineers Checklist

March 18th, 2009

The Beginning Engineers Checklist shares some hard-earned wisdom:

Business will always be part of engineering. Get over it.
  • Lots of people lie. You can’t tell. You can’t get along without them.
  • Salespeople will tell you anything they think will sell their product.
  • Payment for contract work may be difficult to collect.
  • Never underestimate the stupidity of the end user of your product.
  • Make things that people want to buy. Not use, play with, see, understand, etc. — buy.

K.I.S.S.

  • The ideal design has zero parts.
  • “An engineer is someone who can build for a dollar what a fool can build for twenty”  Robert A. Hienlein
  • If it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet
  • To the optimist, the glass is half full. To the pessimist, the glass is half empty. To the engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.

How Rich Countries Die

March 18th, 2009

Philip Greenspun summarizes Mancur Olson‘s The Rise and Decline of Nations, which explains how rich countries die — via special interests:

Olson showed back in 1982 that modern macroeconomic theory was basically worthless in developed stable countries. Macroeconomics posits a free market in which wages and prices adjust dynamically. That applies to an ever-smaller sector of the U.S. economy. We have a rapidly growing governnment that directly or indirectly employs more than one third of our workers, many of whom are unionized. We have a health care system that consumes 16 percent of GDP and is staffed with doctors who restrict entry into the profession via their licensing cartel. The financial services sector is about 10 percent of the economy and they now tap into taxpayer money to keep their bonuses flowing in bad times. The automotive industry kept itself profitable over the years by successfully lobbying for import tariffs. When the profits turned to losses, they successfully lobbied to have taxpayers pick up those losses. A university-trained macroeconomist might be able to predict what will happen to babysitters in a depression, but not the price of cereal, the wage of a manufacturing worker, or the fate of those Americans who collect most of our national income (e.g., Wall Street, medical doctors, government workers).

A cashflow approach is much more effective for figuring out where we’re headed. Money flows out to the folks on Wall Street who bankrupted their firms, to schoolteachers who’ve failed to teach their students, to government workers who feel that simply showing up to work is a heroic achievement, to executives and union workers in America’s oldest and least competitive industries. If times are tough and money is tight, that means almost nothing is left over for productive investment. What would have been a short recession will turn into a long depression and decades of higher taxes and slow growth to pay for all of the cash ladled out. Special interest groups will continue to gain in power.

Read the whole thing, not just the conclusion I cited.

Free-Range Kids

March 18th, 2009

We have free-range chickens, but apparently we no longer have free-range kids:

My 10-year-old son wanted the chance to walk from our house to soccer practice behind an elementary school about 1/3 mile from our house. He had walked in our neighborhood a number of times with the family and we have driven the route to practice who knows how many times. It was broad daylight — 5:00 pm. I had to be at the field myself 15 minutes after practice started, so I gave him my cell phone and told him I would be there to check that he made it and sent him off. He got 3 blocks and a police car intercepted him. The police came to my house — after I had left — and spoke with my younger children (who were home with Grandma). They then found me at the soccer field and proceeded to tell me how I could be charged with child endangerment. They said they had gotten “hundreds” of calls to 911 about him walking. Now, I know bad things can happen and I wasn’t flippant about letting him go and not checking up, but come on. I live in a small town in Mississippi. To be perfectly honest, I’m much more concerned about letting him attend a birthday party sleepover next Friday, but I’m guessing the police wouldn’t be at my house if I chose to let him go (which I probably won’t).

Even water in glass bottles contains estrogen-mimicking chemicals

March 17th, 2009

Even water in glass bottles contains estrogen-mimicking chemicals — and not because they leached out of the glass:

This would mean the water was polluted prior to bottling. Several scientists now suspect one source might be the plumbing used to move water from natural reservoirs to — and/or through — processing equipment in a bottling plant.

Polyvinyl chloride tubing, for instance, is widely used by industry. So if mineral water were pumped through PVC piping it could pick up bisphenol-A, organotin and phthalates — “because [PVC] is a source of all those,” notes Shanna Swan, an environmental epidemiologist at the University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry. And, she adds, all of these materials that have been found in PVC have an estrogenic alter ego.

Polycarbonate plastic is also used for industrial tubes and piping, notes endocrinologist Ana Soto of the Tufts University School of Medicine in Boston. The basic building blocks of that plastic are molecules of bisphenol A, a compound that her team has established to be a potent estrogen mimic.
Soto recalls an anecdote from a few years back, when she was just beginning to collaborate with someone new in scouting for potential hormonelike pollutants in Massachusetts Bay. “I recommended that the guy send the water out for extraction to an EPA-certified lab,” she says. “But he told me no. I’m a chemist. I can do this.” So she suggested processing a few clean samples first. She’d then screen them for contamination.

Sure enough, she recalls, the first few samples he sent were laced with “stratospheric estrogens.” Chagrinned, the researcher substituted a plastic filter and the next samples came back estrogenfree. Soto says she’s found out the hard way that unless a liquid is kept in glass or ceramic containers, it risks coming into contact with some estrogenic mimic as it travels through pipes, is filtered or heated.

Cornerstone Speech

March 17th, 2009

Few people recognize Alexander Stephens by name — he was Vice President of the Confederate States of America under Jefferson Davis — but he was famous in his day for giving his Cornerstone Speech on the eve of the War Between the States — which opens almost ironically, at least from our modern perspective:

I was remarking that we are passing through one of the greatest revolutions in the annals of the world. Seven States have within the last three months thrown off an old government and formed a new. This revolution has been signally marked, up to this time, by the fact of its having been accomplished without the loss of a single drop of blood.

He lists a number of unremarkable “improvements” they made in framing the new Constitution before getting to the crux of the matter:

But not to be tedious in enumerating the numerous changes for the better, allow me to allude to one other — though last, not least. The new constitution has put at rest, forever, all the agitating questions relating to our peculiar institution — African slavery as it exists amongst us — the proper status of the negro in our form of civilization. This was the immediate cause of the late rupture and present revolution. Jefferson in his forecast, had anticipated this, as the “rock upon which the old Union would split.” He was right. What was conjecture with him, is now a realized fact. But whether he fully comprehended the great truth upon which that rock stood and stands, may be doubted.

The prevailing ideas entertained by him and most of the leading statesmen at the time of the formation of the old constitution, were that the enslavement of the African was in violation of the laws of nature; that it was wrong in principle, socially, morally, and politically. It was an evil they knew not well how to deal with, but the general opinion of the men of that day was that, somehow or other in the order of Providence, the institution would be evanescent and pass away. This idea, though not incorporated in the constitution, was the prevailing idea at that time. The constitution, it is true, secured every essential guarantee to the institution while it should last, and hence no argument can be justly urged against the constitutional guarantees thus secured, because of the common sentiment of the day.

Those ideas, however, were fundamentally wrong. They rested upon the assumption of the equality of races. This was an error. It was a sandy foundation, and the government built upon it fell when the “storm came and the wind blew.”

Our new government is founded upon exactly the opposite idea; its foundations are laid, its corner- stone rests, upon the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery — subordination to the superior race—is his natural and normal condition. This, our new government, is the first, in the history of the world, based upon this great physical, philosophical, and moral truth. This truth has been slow in the process of its development, like all other truths in the various departments of science. It has been so even amongst us. Many who hear me, perhaps, can recollect well, that this truth was not generally admitted, even within their day. The errors of the past generation still clung to many as late as twenty years ago.

Those at the North, who still cling to these errors, with a zeal above knowledge, we justly denominate fanatics. All fanaticism springs from an aberration of the mind — from a defect in reasoning. It is a species of insanity. One of the most striking characteristics of insanity, in many instances, is forming correct conclusions from fancied or erroneous premises; so with the anti-slavery fanatics. Their conclusions are right if their premises were. They assume that the negro is equal, and hence conclude that he is entitled to equal privileges and rights with the white man. If their premises were correct, their conclusions would be logical and just — but their premise being wrong, their whole argument fails.

I recollect once of having heard a gentleman from one of the northern States, of great power and ability, announce in the House of Representatives, with imposing effect, that we of the South would be compelled, ultimately, to yield upon this subject of slavery, that it was as impossible to war successfully against a principle in politics, as it was in physics or mechanics. That the principle would ultimately prevail. That we, in maintaining slavery as it exists with us, were warring against a principle, a principle founded in nature, the principle of the equality of men. The reply I made to him was, that upon his own grounds, we should, ultimately, succeed, and that he and his associates, in this crusade against our institutions, would ultimately fail. The truth announced, that it was as impossible to war successfully against a principle in politics as it was in physics and mechanics, I admitted; but told him that it was he, and those acting with him, who were warring against a principle. They were attempting to make things equal which the Creator had made unequal.

I’m pretty sure we skipped over the Cornerstone Speech in American history class.

(Hat tip to Mencius Moldbug, who quips, “James Watson, call your office.”)

Koryu

March 17th, 2009

Rory Miller (Meditations on Violence) briefly mentioned that he was a koryu snob. What is koryu? Old school:

Koryu is a Japanese word that is used in association with the ancient Japanese martial arts. This word literally translates as “old school” (ko – old, ryu – school) or “traditional school.” Koryu is a general term for Japanese schools of martial arts that predate the Meiji Restoration (the period from 1866 to 1869 which sparked major socio-political changes and led to the modernization of Japan). While there is no “official” cutoff date, the dates most commonly used are either 1868, the first year of the Meiji period, or 1876, when the Haitorei edict banning the wearing of swords was pronounced.

The Social Life of Small Urban Spaces

March 17th, 2009

I’ve been meaning to read The Social Life of Small Urban Spaces for a long, long time, and I’ve been meaning to watch the film just as long — but it costs $95 on DVD. Fortunately, the first ten minutes are available to give you a taste:

Possible therapy takes bite out of peanut allergy

March 17th, 2009

Possible therapy takes bite out of peanut allergy:

Those allergy shots that help people allergic to pollen and other environmental triggers reduce or eliminate symptoms — by getting used to small amounts of the allergen — are too risky for food allergies.

Enter oral immunotherapy. Twenty-nine severely allergic children spent a day in the hospital swallowing minuscule but slowly increasing doses of a specially prepared peanut flour, until they had a reaction. The child went home with a daily dose just under that reactive amount, usually equivalent to 1/1,000th of a peanut.

After eight to 10 months of gradual dose increases, most can eat the peanut-flour equivalent of 15 peanuts daily, said Burks, who two years ago began reporting these signs of desensitization as long as children took their daily medicine.

Sunday’s report takes the next big step. Nine children who’d taken daily therapy for 2 1/2 years were given a series of peanut challenges. Four in the initial study — and a fifth who finished testing last week — could stop treatment and avoid peanuts for an entire month and still have no reaction the next time they ate 15 whole peanuts. Immune-system changes suggest they’re truly allergy-free, Burks said.

Scientists call that tolerance — meaning their immune systems didn’t forget and go bad again — and it’s a first for food allergy treatment, said Dr. Marshall Plaut of the National Institutes of Health.

God Exists, and He’s Mormon

March 17th, 2009

The Mormon-Galactica connection is well established — and intentional. The Mormon-Watchmen connection? Not so much:

Creation: According to Hopkins, the Mormon God is a creator in the same sense that I am the creator of this article or that Van Gogh is the creator of Starry Night. God may be an organizer, a planner, an architect, a genius, but he does not create things from nothing (“ex nihilo”). Likewise, Dr. Manhattan can manipulate matter on a grand scale, but he is only reorganizing what is already there.

Omniscience: Hopkins argues that there is “a vast difference between classical theism and Mormonism on the subject of how God knows the future” because “classical theism views God…as being outside of time and space. From this vantage, he can supposedly see any point in time he chooses.” Dr. Manhattan shares this in common with the God of Mormonism: Even though he can perceive time more fully than most humans, he is part of time. Manhattan calls himself a puppet who can see the strings, but he is much more than that.

Omnipresence: The Mormon God is not subject to the same limits that humans are but he is not everywhere at once. That’s also a pretty good description of Dr. Manhattan.

Change: Hopkins calls the idea held by “classical theists” that God is unchanging “demonstrably unbiblical” and definitely un-Mormon. Mormonism posits an ever-evolving God, not at all unlike Dr. Manhattan.

Corporeality: With the exception of the Incarnation, traditional Christianity insists that God is “spirit” only. Mormonism disagrees. Hopkins insists that if man is made in the image of God, then God must have a corporeal form. So far as I can tell, there’s nothing in the book of Mormon about God having blue skin and a symbol of hydrogen burned onto his forehead, but you never know.

Our Tool Is Temperance

March 16th, 2009

Mencius Moldbug argues that, in order to understand the Civil War, we need a conceptual tool that can separate our moral judgment of slavery from our critical assessment of the political acts and actions of the 1850s:

The name of our tool is temperance. Ie, prohibition of alcohol. For reasons that will be obvious to any [Unqualified Reservations] reader, the temperance and abolition movements were close bedfellows. The match is not perfect, of course, but if we replace slavery with liquor, we have a hot-button issue in the 1850s whose emotional connotations in 2009 are comical at best.

So, for example: when politicians are fighting about whether “slavery shall go into Kansas,” just think of them as fighting about whether liquor shall go into Kansas. Is Kansas to be a wet state, or a dry state? Shall Congress decide? Or the settlers in Kansas? Are prohibitionists in Massachusetts organizing to dispatch teetotalers to the territories? Are all the worst sots of Missouri up in arms against them?

With this device at our disposal, we are equipped to ask: disregarding the moral connotations of slavery (which we will consider later), which side in the War of Secession was in the right?

I can’t help but think, Other than that, how did you like the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

Balances of Power

March 16th, 2009

Rory Miller (Meditations on Violence) argues that most people assume things that aren’t true:

  1. Other people need a reason to lie
  2. People are about equal in their desire to share information
  3. If information comes from multiple sources it is more likely to be solid

The first assumption falls apart in many of the environments that I spend time in. People who live extremely marginal lives, unprotected by society and surrounded by people they can’t trust (most criminals) need a reason to tell the truth. Disinformation is habit. Giving people in power (not just might power, but also ego stroke power or emotional leverage power) what they want to hear is habit. Most of what you have read derived from interviews with criminals (or written by criminals themselves) have been self-serving lies. It just is. If that rankles and feels judgmental, that is a measure of your value system, and an indicator that you do not understand theirs. In that world, lying is neither right nor wrong, it is simply smart.

The second assumption falls down in some very important places and some very important ways. Sometimes the people with the most information are prohibited (by law, policy, or morality) from sharing that information. I am aware of a case of a fairly highly placed person in a certain local government publishing some pretty outrageous lies. The truth was well-documented, but was documented under a work-place disciplinary status. Completely forbidden to be shared. The lies went unanswered. In some venues, information has to be limited because leaks can cost lives. Simple as that. The people who could explain the best are afraid that even a slight, accidental slip could lead to disaster — and so they say nothing.
[...]
The third assumption… people confuse different sources with independent sources. Radioisotope decay and estimated mutation rates and changes in DNA over time and geological layering and the fossil record all independently support the concept of evolution. Different mythologies (and nothing else) support the theory of creation. Some of the more interesting pseudoscientific political issues are worth a look: in a few of them (I’m thinking of a specific example for this) you will find hundreds of sources. Those sources will quote other sources, who will quote others… but in the end almost everything goes back to a single opinion — and this guy has been known to quote people quoting him to bolster his argument.

100-MPG Hybrid Evokes The Classic ’63 Corvette

March 16th, 2009

Ben Mack reports on yet another cutting-edge new car that promises impressive numbers:

Lightning Hybrids says the LH4 will achieve 100 mpg and do zero to 60 in 5.9 seconds.
[...]
Lightning Hybrids has set an aggressive goal of putting the first cars in driveways by 2010 and hitting an annual production of 3,000 cars a year within four years. That seems optimistic given the state of the economy and the challenges involved in building cars. If startups like Tesla Motors have taught us anything, it’s cars packed with innovative technology tend to come in behind schedule and over budget.

The LH4 is not a hybrid-electric vehicle, but a diesel-hydraulic hybrid:

Power comes from a 90-horsepower diesel engine plucked from a Volkswagen and mated to a 150 horsepower Rexroth hydraulic hybrid system — technology that has so far been limited to delivery trucks. Such systems ditch batteries in favor of hydraulic power, and the company says it offers better fuel economy and energy regeneration than conventional gas-electric systems.

“Nobody in the world is applying this technology to smaller cars like we are,” company CEO Dan Johnson told Wired.com.

There’s a reason nobody in the world is applying this technology to smaller cars like they are:

Hydraulic hybrids use a diesel engine to drive a hydraulic pump, which charges an accumulator — essentially a high-pressure tank. The accumulator, in turn, drives smaller pump motors that send power to the axle or power the wheels directly. (Check out the video below for more details.) Such systems have been around since the 1980s but limited to delivery trucks — UPS plans to roll out the first of seven sometime this year — because the accumulators are bulky and tough to fit within the confines of a passenger car. Lightning Hybrids isn’t saying how it will address this problem but insists it is “working night and day” on it.

Car nuts seem more interested in the styling:

The sleek shape of the LH4 was inspired by the 1963 Corvette that Johnson restored in high school and still owns. The LH4 was designed for maximum aerodynamic efficiency and has a drag coefficient of 0.20, making it sleeker than a Toyota Prius. The clamshell design allows for a nearly seamless body to help the car slice the wind cleanly, and liberal use of carbon fiber will keep the car to just 1,750 pounds. That’s the plan, anyway.

Those back windows may mirror the classic look of those on the ’63 Corvette, but hidden cameras and three LCD screens give a better view of what’s behind you. Mounting mirrors on the doors would do more than blemish the car’s lines, it would create efficiency-robbing turbulence.

Practicality doesn’t seem high on the list, as T. Herber notes:

And what happens when it’s pouring down rain and you want to get out of this car?

Houston, we have a problem.

Humans No Match for Go Bot Overlords

March 16th, 2009

The recent Taiwan Open demonstrated that humans are no match for their new Go-bot overlords:

In February, at the Taiwan Open — Go‘s popularity in East Asia roughly compares to America’s enthusiasm for golf — a program called MoGo beat two professionals. At an exhibition in Chicago, the Many Faces program beat another pro.

Layered Precision

March 15th, 2009

In striking, Rory Miller (Meditations on Violence) notes, power generation varies by range:

This is why it is so hard to do serious damage with strikes in a real fight — you rarely are in complete control of the range. Clavicles and ribs can be broken fairly easily, but aren’t broken often. In the same way, strikes to the brainstem (and the associated high-percentage areas) should be easy, but they don’t happen very often.

Following this yet? To be a successful striker you need to put power in a specific place. That is much easier when the target holds still. The great strikers (I’m thinking sport, here) are not just putting the fist or foot in the right place when it is at the max on the power curve; they are also manipulating the opponent to be at the right place at the right time: personal precision plus the remote control precision on an opponent. That’s cool.

The jujutsu solution, of course, is just to hold them in the right place.

Can Marijuana Help Rescue California’s Economy?

March 14th, 2009

Can Marijuana Help Rescue California’s Economy?

Democratic state assemblyman Tom Ammiano thinks so. Ammiano introduced legislation last month that would legalize pot and allow the state to regulate and tax its sale — a move that could mean billions of dollars for the cash-strapped state. Pot is, after all, California’s biggest cash crop, responsible for $14 billion a year in sales, dwarfing the state’s second largest agricultural commodity — milk and cream — which brings in $7.3 billion a year, according to the most recent USDA statistics. The state’s tax collectors estimate the bill would bring in about $1.3 billion a year in much needed revenue, offsetting some of the billions of dollars in service cuts and spending reductions outlined in the recently approved state budget.
[...]
In 1996 California became one of the first states in the nation to legalize medical marijuana. Currently, $200 million in medical-marijuana sales are subject to sales tax. If passed, the Marijuana Control, Regulation and Education Act (AB 390) would give California control of pot in a manner similar to that of alcohol while prohibiting its purchase by citizens under age 21. (The bill has been referred to the California state assembly’s public-safety and health committees; Ammiano says it could take up to a year before it comes to a vote for passage.) State revenues would be derived from a $50-per-oz. levy on retail sales of marijuana and sales taxes. By adopting the law, California could become a model for other states. As Ammiano put it, “How California goes, the country goes.”