The Great Terror

Tuesday, August 4th, 2015

Robert Conquest, famous for his Three Laws of Politics, has passed away at the age of 98:

An ardent Bolshevik as a young man, Conquest became a bitter foe of Soviet “Socialism”. He had first visited Russia in 1937 as a youthful devotee of the great experiment. It was a half century before he returned in 1989, having spent his life between chronicling the horrors the country had endured, and emerging, in the view of the Oxford historian Mark Almond, as “one of the few Western heroes of the collapse of Soviet Communism”. “He was Solzhenitsyn before Solzhenitsyn,” said Timothy Garton Ash.

Of his many works on the subject, perhaps the most important was The Great Terror, published in 1968 and detailing the full enormity of what Stalin had done to the Russian people in the 1930s and 1940s. The Mexican writer Octavio Paz paid the most succinct tribute to this book when he said in 1972 that The Great Terror had “closed the debate” about Stalinism.

[...]

Among other interests, Conquest was a lifelong member, later fellow, of the British Interplanetary Society, to which he was recruited by a young civil servant called Arthur C Clarke. He also published a science fiction novel, A World of Difference. His last poetry collection, Penultima, was published in 2009.

Genes influence academic ability across all subjects

Tuesday, August 4th, 2015

A recent study finds that genes influence academic ability across all subjects — and The Guardian is willing to report this:

The researchers analysed genetic data and GCSE scores from 12,500 twins, about half of whom were identical.

Results in all subjects, including maths, science, art and humanities, were highly heritable, with genes explaining a bigger proportion of the differences between children (54-65%) than environmental factors, such as school and family combined (14-21%), which were shared by the twins.

[...]

When the scientists factored in IQ scores, they found that intelligence appeared to account for slightly less than half of the genetic component, suggesting that other heritable traits — curiosity, determination and memory, perhaps — play a significant role.

[...]

Plomin said that while talking about genetics and education was no longer the taboo that it was twenty years ago, education professionals were slow to adapt teaching methods in the face of new scientific findings. “It’s a problem with evidence,” he said. “Thirty years ago medicine wasn’t particularly evidence-based. I think education is fundamentally not based on evidence. What programme has been rolled out that has been based on evidence? We ought to hold educationalists to the same standards of evidence as medicine.”

You May Be Getting More Sleep Than You Think

Tuesday, August 4th, 2015

Many people are terrible judges of how much shut-eye they get, which reveals a striking fact about insomnia:

You can have insomnia and still get an adequate number of hours of sleep. New research is showing that insomnia is less about the amount you sleep and more about what your brain does during sleep.

About 30% of American adults have symptoms of insomnia each year, according to scientific studies. And about 10% of the population has chronic insomnia, which is generally defined as having difficulty sleeping at least three times a week for three months or more.

[...]

About half of those with insomnia sleep a normal amount, or at least six hours a night. In one study, about 42% of people with insomnia who slept a normal amount underestimated how much they slept on a particular night by more than an hour. Only about 18% of normal sleepers underestimated by that much. The study, published in 2011 in Psychosomatic Medicine, followed 142 people with insomnia and 724 controls.

By contrast, people who don’t sleep much overestimate how much they sleep.

[...]

While everyone wakes up during the night, “if you’re a good sleeper, it means you don’t remember wakefulness.”

[...]

Some studies suggest that worry is linked to a misperception of sleep.

Also, some research has revealed that people with insomnia have more high-frequency brain waves—ones that are usually associated with wakefulness—while they are sleeping.

“People seem like they are not wholly unconscious,” says Michael Perlis, director of the Behavioral Sleep Medicine Program at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. “There is more sensory processing, more information processing, more short- and long-term memory than you should have in an unconscious state.

Indeed, there’s new evidence that the brains of people with insomnia act differently during sleep than those of normal sleepers. Daniel J. Buysse, a professor of psychiatry and clinical and translational science at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, has been using PET scans, which measure metabolic activity in the brain, to scan the brains of people with insomnia and normal sleepers.

He and colleagues have found that in people with insomnia, parts of the brain known as the default mode network are more active during sleep, compared with normal sleepers. The default mode network is most engaged when peoples’ minds wander and when they’re being self-reflective.

“Insomnia is not the problem of too little sleep. It is the problem of too much brain activation,” Dr. Buysse says. “When patients tell us, ‘My mind is wandering, I’m thinking all night, I’m aware of everything that’s going on,’ it is entirely possible that their experience of sleep is exactly how they describe it.”

Doing Good Better

Monday, August 3rd, 2015

Alex Tabarrok calls William MacAskill, author of Doing Good Better, a hard-headed, soft-hearted proponent of saving the world, or effective altruism:

Doing Good Better opens, just as you would expect, with an uplifting story of a wonderful person with a brilliant idea to save the world. The PlayPump uses a merry-go-round to pump water. Fun transformed into labor and life saving clean water! The energetic driver of the idea quits his job and invests his life in the project. Africa! Children on merry-go-rounds! Innovation! What could be better? It’s the perfect charitable meme and the idea attracts millions of dollars of funding from celebrities like Steve Case, Jay-Z, Laura Bush and Bill Clinton.

PlayPump Diagram

Then MacAskill subverts the narrative and drops the bomb:

…despite the hype and the awards and the millions of dollars spent, no one had really considered the practicalities of the PlayPump. Most playground merry-go-rounds spin freely once they’ve gained sufficient momentum–that’s what makes them fun. But in order to pump water, PlayPumps need constant force, and children playing on them would quickly get exhausted.

The women whose labor was supposed to be saved end up pushing the merry-go-round themselves, which they find demeaning and more exhausting than using a hand-pump. Moreover, the device is complicated and requires extensive maintenance that cannot be done in the village. The PlayPump is a disaster.

Admirably Adamantine

Monday, August 3rd, 2015

After reading Ta-Nehisi Coates’ recent biography, Steve Sailer quipped, “Despite all the violence Coates has suffered at the hands of other blacks, his racial loyalty remains admirably adamantine,” and commenter ABD replied:

I get the sense that there is a lot of psychic stress experienced by the Talented Tenth, i.e. bourgeois middle-class blacks like Ta-Nahesi Coates. They basically live among white people according to white norms, but this creates in them a need to “keep it real” by defending and excusing the dysfunction of underclass blacks. It’s like how the most anti-colonial element of society in the former European empires was the Westernized native elite rather than traditionalist tribal elders.

In a saner world, the Talented Tenth would have an aristocratic attitude of protective paternalism toward black proles, in the spirit of Booker Washington. In actuality, black ethnocentrism, despite being a fundamentally conservative trait, gets filtered through the ideology of the white liberals who run post-white America.

So instead of straightforward tribal noblesse oblige, gentry blacks like TNC (and Obama) live by the fundamentally dishonest and passive-aggressive code of leftism: all animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others. They lie that D’Shawntavious is their social equal, and the implausibility of that claim means they have to lie again by claiming that Whitey is a wrecker.

I actually kind of pity middle-class blacks who wish to be champions of their people even as they operate within an ideological framework created by leftists who despise their own people.

Noisome Odors

Monday, August 3rd, 2015

Smells can bring back memories, including traumatic memories — so the military may want to inoculate the troops:

“Our goal was to test whether you could pre-expose or inoculate people with these odors, and subsequently prevent the negative memory from taking,” she recounted. “That’s exactly what we showed. You could take an odor that was initially unfamiliar, expose an individual to it in a neutral context, and then when you paired that same odor with a negative experience, it no longer had a strong associative power.”

Prior to Dalton’s findings, the military trained soldiers in mock villages that were accurate recreations of what soldiers might encounter in Afghanistan or Iraq, but only to a point: these mockups failed to mimic the olfactory environment of the Middle East. “They covered everything with visual cues, and sometimes there was smoke,” said Dalton. “But bodies rotting in the sun for days at a time? Food-smells of a very foreign culture? Those were the things that were likely to be present at the time soldiers were experiencing these extreme stressors, and those were the things that were becoming tightly bound to the negative emotional state and persisting well beyond the original experience.”

Adding the mixed stenches of sewage, burning garbage, and local spices might not seem like the most crucial component of building a mock Iraqi village, but the science behind pre-exposure prevention of PTSD was strong. The military and VA took the hint. “I know they are [now] actually doing training with realistic olfactory environments,” Dalton said.

Familiarizing the armed forces with the smells of war not only helps mitigate soldiers’ future memories of traumatic events, it also prepares newly deployed soldiers for the smells of a novel environment that might otherwise distract them from their duties. In 2006, the Army and the Marines began training some of their troops with virtual-reality devices that included high-tech collars designed to emit noisome odors like melting plastic, or rotting flesh, prior to deployment.

The First Rule of White Club

Sunday, August 2nd, 2015

Steve Sailer provides his own sacrilegious take on Coates’ Between the World and Me:

America’s foremost public intellectual, Ta-Nehisi Coates, has published a new best-selling minibook, Between the World and Me, that’s interesting for what it reveals about a forbidden subject: the psychological damage done by pervasive black violence to soft, sensitive, bookish souls such as Coates. The Atlantic writer’s black radical parents forced the frightened child to grow up in Baltimore’s black community, where he lived in constant terror of the other boys. Any white person who wrote as intensely about how blacks scared him would be career-crucified out of his job, so it’s striking to read Coates recounting at length how horrible it is to live around poor blacks if you are a timid, retiring sort.

[...]

Despite all the violence Coates has suffered at the hands of other blacks, his racial loyalty remains admirably adamantine. Thus, his ploy, as psychologically transparent as it is popular with liberal whites, is to blame his lifelong petrified unhappiness on the white suburbanites he envied for being able to live far from black thugs.

Unfortunately for Coates’ persuasiveness, white people, unlike blacks, have never actually done anything terribly bad to him. The worst memory he can dredge up is the time an Upper West Side white woman pushed his 4-year-old son to get the dawdling kid to stop clogging an escalator exit. She even had the racist nerve to say, “Come on!”

Coates reacted as unreasonably as a guest star on Seinfeld would. Ever since this Escalator Incident, he’s been dwelling on how, while it might have looked like yet another example of blacks behaving badly, it was, when you stop to think about slavery and Crow (not to mention redlining), really all the fault of whites.

The central event in Between the World and Me is the fatal shooting in 2000 of an acquaintance from Howard U. by an undercover deputy from Prince George County, the country’s most affluent black-majority county. Coates refers to this tragedy repeatedly as proof of America’s demonic drive to destroy black bodies.

[...]

Since I’m a horrible person, my immediate response to Coates’ tale was…okay…black-run county, affirmative-action hiring, and poor police decision-making…you know, I bet the shooter cop was black.

And sure enough, the Carlton Jones who shot Prince Jones turned out to be black. Coates eventually gets around to briefly admitting that awkward fact, but only after seven pages of purple prose about people who believe they are whites destroying black bodies.

Don’t be a victim of muscle loss

Sunday, August 2nd, 2015

The average muscle loss in men between the ages of 50 and 70 is 30 percent, Mangan notes, and from ages 70 to 80, another 20 to 30% of muscle is lost:

Add those figures and you’ve got the basis for the fact that most 80-year-old men will have lost 50% of their muscle mass.

It doesn’t have to be that way, if you keep active:

Muscle-Loss Cross-Sections

The Jesuits of the British Empire

Saturday, August 1st, 2015

Steve Sailer explores Carroll Quigley’s conspiracy theory, The Milner Group:

Academic historians dislike the concept that history is often made by groups of individuals plotting together in confidence, even though one obvious way to get big things done is to make plans with your friends and allies while keeping your rivals in the dark as long as possible.

[...]

[Quigley’s book, The Anglo-American Establishment] actually focused on one group of British establishmentarians, the progressive imperialists who set up the British equivalent of the CFR, the Royal Institute of International Affairs (a.k.a., Chatham House), edited The Times of London for most of the first four decades of the 20th Century, and largely controlled the peculiarly influential All Souls College at Oxford.

Quigley calls them the Milner Group after Alfred Milner (1854-1925), an eminence grise who more or less started the Boer War of 1899-1902, then mentored “Milner’s Kindergarten” of bright young men in South Africa, and finally popped up again in Lloyd George’s war cabinet in 1917, but mostly served behind the scenes.

Quigley traces the Milner Group back to the far more colorful Cecil Rhodes’ desire to start a “Secret Society” to promote Angl0-American unity and global domination.

Seriously, Rhodes’ first will explicitly arranged to leave his fortune to a secret society:

To and for the establishment, promotion and development of a Secret Society, the true aim and object whereof shall be for the extension of British rule throughout the world, the perfecting of a system of emigration from the United Kingdom, and of colonisation by British subjects of all lands where the means of livelihood are attainable by energy, labour and enterprise, and especially the occupation by British settlers of the entire Continent of Africa, the Holy Land, the Valley of the Euphrates, the Islands of Cyprus and Candia, the whole of South America, the Islands of the Pacific not heretofore possessed by Great Britain, the whole of the Malay Archipelago, the seaboard of China and Japan, the ultimate recovery of the United States of America as an integral part of the British Empire, the inauguration of a system of Colonial representation in the Imperial Parliament which may tend to weld together the disjointed members of the Empire and, finally, the foundation of so great a Power as to render wars impossible and promote the best interests of humanity.

The era’s culture of male self-admiration tended to elicit high male achievement, Sailer notes.

The Milner group relied on a certain kind of quasi-secrecy, the famous Chatham House Rule:

If you are invited to a meeting at Chatham House where, say, John Kerry explains the Iran deal, you are allowed to discuss what you learned but not mention the name of whoever you heard it from. That’s a clever way to split the Gordian Knot of wanting to propagandize without being seen to propagandize.

Quigley’s explanation of the how the Milner Group coordinated Establishment opinion is relevant in the U.S. today:

The Times was to be a paper for the people who are influential, and not for the masses.…

By the interaction of these various branches on one another, under the pretense that each branch was an autonomous power, the influence of each branch was increased through a process of mutual reinforcement. The unanimity among the various branches was believed by the outside world to be the result of the influence of a single Truth, while really it was result of a single group.

Thus, a statesman (a member of the Group) announces a policy. About the same time, the Royal Institute of International Affairs publishes a study on the subject, and an Oxford don, a Fellow of All Souls (and a member of the Group) also publishes a volume on the subject (probably through a publishing house, like G. Bell and Sons or Faber and Faber, allied to the Group). The statesman’s policy is subjected to critical analysis and final approval in a “leader” in The Times, while the two books are reviewed (in a single review) in The Times Literary Supplement. Both the “leader” and the review are anonymous but are written by members of the Group. And finally, at about the same time, an anonymous article in The Round Table strongly advocates the same policy.

The cumulative effect of such tactics as this, even if each tactical move influences only a small number of important people, is bound to be great. If necessary, the strategy can be carried further, by arranging for the secretary to the Rhodes Trustees to go to America for a series of “informal discussions” with former Rhodes Scholars, while a prominent retired statesman (possibly a former Viceroy of India) is persuaded to say a few words at the unveiling of a plaque in All Souls or New College in honor of some deceased Warden. By a curious coincidence, both the “informal discussions” in America and the unveiling speech at Oxford touch on the same topical subject.

Blowing up a Balloon

Saturday, August 1st, 2015

Nutrition gets little attention or respect in medicine, but Dr. Malcolm Kendrick became side tracked by the very powerful and consistent association between heart disease and diabetes:

In short, if you added together what was clear about diabetes and insulin resistance, you got a model of type II diabetes which looked pretty much like this:

  • You eat too much food.
  • You put on weight.
  • As you put on weight you become more and more insulin resistant.
  • At first you will develop insulin resistance syndrome.
  • If you keep putting on weight you will become so insulin resistant that you will develop frank type II diabetes.

I call this the ‘blowing up a balloon’ theory of diabetes. As a balloon expands you have to blow harder and harder to overcome the resistance. As you get fatter and fatter you need more and more insulin to force fats into fat cells. As with many things in medicine this is a nice simple story. It is also very easy to understand, and it is tantalisingly close to being correct.

[...]

Beginning with the most obese group people on the planet earth, namely Sumo wrestlers. I wanted to know how many of them have diabetes, and it did not take long to discover that, whilst in training, none of them have diabetes.

I then searched for the opposite end of the spectrum. Were there people with no adipose tissue, and how many of them had diabetes? Surprisingly, there is one such group, the least obese people on earth. They are those with Beradinelli-Siep lipodystrophy. This is a genetic abnormality which means that these poor unfortunates have almost no fat cells. How many of them have type II diabetes? Well, all of them actually.

I then looked for the population with the highest rate of diabetes in the world. This happens to be the Pima Indians of North Mexico/Southern US. I have seen figures reporting that over 80% of adult males Pima Indians have type II diabetes. It may even be more. And yes, they are very obese.

However, there are two other very interesting facts about the Pima Indians. First, they have a very low rate of heart disease. Or they did last time I looked. Perhaps most importantly, in their youth, when they are not obese, they produce far more insulin in response to food than ‘normal’ populations. Or, to put this another way, they are hyper-insulinaemic before they are obese, and long before they become diabetic. So their excess insulin production is not a result of becoming fatter. The causal chain is the other way around.

I have found that if you speak to most doctors about these facts, a look of complete incomprehension passes over their faces. ‘That cannot be right.’ Of course if you believe in the ‘blowing up a balloon’ model of diabetes, then the Pima Indians, Sumo Wrestlers and those with Beradinalli-Siep lipodystrophy do not make any sense. However, in science, when observations do not fit your hypothesis, it is the hypothesis that needs to change, not the facts.

Just to summarize these ‘paradoxical’ facts:

  • You do not need any fat cells to develop diabetes/if you have no fat cells there is a 100% probability that you will be diabetic.
  • You can be very , very, obese and not have diabetes.
  • You can have increased insulin production long before you become obese (and/or insulin resistant). You become obese later.

[...]

However, luckily, there is another model that fits all the facts. One that I prepared earlier:

  • You produce too much insulin.
  • This forces your body to store fat.
  • You become obese.
  • At a certain point insulin resistance develops to block further weight gain.
  • This resistance becomes more and more severe until…
  • You become diabetic.

This model explains the Pima Indians. Can Sumo wrestlers be fitted into this model? Yes, with a couple of addendums. Sumo Wrestlers eat to become fat, because added mass provides a competitive advantage if you are trying to shove someone else out of a small ring, before they do it to you.

To achieve super-obesity, they wake up, train for two hours, then eat as much as they can of a high carbohydrate, low fat, broth. They then lie about for a few hours allowing the high insulin levels created by the high carbohydrate diet to convert excess sugars to fat, storing this in adipose tissue. Later on they train very hard again, then eat, then sleep. Rpt.

The reason why they do not become diabetic is on this regime is simply because they exercise very, very, hard. They burn up all the sugar/glycogen stores in the liver and muscle whilst exercising, which means that when they eat, the sugar(s) can – at least at first – be easily stored in muscle and liver (so there is no insulin resistance to overcome). However, once these guys stop training, things do not look so good. Diabetes lurks..

Those with Beradinelli-Siep lipodystrophy have the reverse problem to Sumo Wrestlers. Because they have no fat cells there is nowhere to store excess energy to go. If they eat carbohydrate/sugar, the first 1,500 calories can be stored as glycogen – after that there is nowhere left. If the liver converts sugar to fat, there is nowhere for that to go either. So, you get ‘back-pressure’ through the system. It doesn’t matter how high the insulin level gets, if you have nowhere to store energy you have nowhere to store energy. End of.

Whilst those with lipodystrophy cannot tell us much about diabetes and obesity in ‘normal’ people. This condition does make it very clear that diabetes – insulin resistance, high insulin and high sugar levels – is primarily an issue with energy storage and how the body goes about this storage, and the role that insulin plays. If there is somewhere for excess energy to go easily, insulin levels will not go up, and nor will blood sugar levels.

But what of ‘normal’ people. Can normal people be fitted into the updated model of type II diabetes? Well, of course, they can. But you need another step in the new model, the first step. Which means we have a new causal chain, and it looks something like this ‘You eat too much carbohydrate.’ Adding in this step gives us the new model:

  • You eat too much carbohydrate/sugar.
  • You produce too much insulin.
  • This forces your body to store fat.
  • You become obese.
  • At a certain point insulin resistance develops to block further weight gain.
  • This resistance becomes more and more severe until…
  • You become diabetic.

(Hat tip to Mangan.)