The Cost of Entrenchment

Sunday, January 23rd, 2011

Wharton finance professor Luke Taylor decided to study why CEOs are rarely fired:

Taylor’s model contained two costs of firing a CEO. Direct costs, such as severance, make up the first component. The second component is what Taylor terms “entrenchment” costs, which are intangible costs that board members feel but shareholders do not — for instance a personal relationship between board members and the CEO. If there are any entrenchment costs, then boards fail to get rid of CEOs whom shareholders would like to see fired — in short, creating an environment where fewer top executives are let go than should be, based on performance.Taylor’s model found that the entrenchment cost per firing was, on average, $1 billion — far more than the $300 million in direct costs.

One area Taylor did not examine is what impact a higher level of CEO turnover would have on the ranks of CEOs. His model does, however, predict that if the entrenchment cost went to zero — meaning that sacking a CEO came with only financial costs and no intangible consequences — the annual rate of CEO firings for the S&P 500 would go from 2% to 13%. That would result in a one-time bump in value for the S&P 500 of 3%. Taylor notes that this higher level of firings could potentially cause talented individuals to choose career paths other than those that might lead to a CEO position.

These findings aren’t universal:

When Taylor looked at the larger half of the S&P 500, he found the entrenchment cost was close to zero — in fact, it was slightly negative. Why the difference between small and large firms? One possibility, Taylor says, is that directors in larger firms have a higher public profile and care more about their public reputations. That may make them more inclined to fire a CEO when times are tough.

Taylor’s work also found there was less entrenchment in the 1990 to 2006 timeframe than in the earlier period studied. He says that this is not surprising, in part because of growing shareholder activism over the last two decades. Regardless, Taylor says it is clear that “entrenchment has gone down, and that is good news.”

Jumping the Sharktopus

Saturday, January 22nd, 2011

Mansquito was just the beginning:

Syfy started making these breezy films back in 2002, but the channel has stepped up its reliance on them as a loyal audience has developed. Last year it churned out 25, allowing Syfy to match the Hallmark Channel as the leading producer of original television movies. Budgets have stayed the same, about $2 million each, less than most hourlong dramas. But Syfy is devoting more marketing dollars to the franchise. For instance “Mega Python vs. Gatoroid” will receive a red-carpet premiere, the first in the network’s history, on Jan. 24 at the Ziegfeld Theater in New York.

Routinely high ratings have helped make the movies an indispensable part of the Syfy schedule. An average of two million people watch, according to Nielsen, with some of the movies (“Pterodactyl,” “Dragon Storm”) attracting more than three million, on par with Syfy’s biggest hit series, “Warehouse 13” and “Eureka.” The Saturday night mayhem also fits snugly with the channel’s effort to broaden beyond science fiction. In 2009 the channel re-branded itself Syfy (dropping the Sci Fi Channel name) in a bid to capture the full landscape of fantasy entertainment: the paranormal, the supernatural, action and adventure, superheroes. Recent movies have tackled unexplained phenomena (“Stonehenge Apocalypse”), furry beasts (“Red: Werewolf Hunter”) and horrific experiments with nature (“Mega Piranha.”)

“Sharktopus,” the blood-soaked tale of a hybrid shark-octopus developed as a secret military weapon, was one of Syfy’s biggest hits last year. (The monster goes haywire and terrorizes bikini-clad women along Mexican Riviera beaches; 2.5 million people tuned in.) Roger Corman, known as the King of the B’s for pumping out movies like “The Wasp Woman” and “Humanoids From the Deep,” said he reluctantly agreed to produce the film, which got its start when a Syfy marketing executive, brainstorming ideas for new creatures, came up with the aquatic crossbreed.

I find that Mansquito is still a fun allusion to drop into conversation, but it may be on the verge of jumping the sharktopus:

Syfy’s movies follow a fairly rigorous formula. About 40 percent of the time, by Mr. Vitale’s estimation, a movie starts with a title. Think of “Mansquito.”

The topics generally fall into tightly defined categories. There are monster hybrids (“Dinoshark”), nonrealistic natural disasters (“Disaster Zone: Volcano in New York”) and giant creatures (“Mongolian Death Worm”).

Scripts need a quick start to the action, and plenty of room for “Baywatch”-style musical montages. Most important, plotlines must maintain (some) logic. How do you create an alligator the size of a skyscraper? Steroids, of course! “People want to have some quasi-logical explanation for their suspension of disbelief,” Mr. Corman said.

Finally, the movies are populated with actors who are familiar but not expensive: Bruce Boxleitner, Lou Diamond Phillips, David Hasselhoff. Syfy works with about 10 production companies to make the movies, which typically take 14 months from conception to completion, Mr. Vitale said.

The Secret Weapon for Fighting Pirates

Saturday, January 22nd, 2011

The Norwegian-owned, Maltese-flagged, South Korean-operated chemical tanker, Sahmo Jewelry, was seized by Somali pirates last Saturday, on its way from the UAE to Sri Lanka.

South Korean naval special forces stormed the hijacked ship early Friday, rescued 21 sailors, captured five pirates, and killed some more:

Military officials in Seoul say a South Korean naval destroyer, the Choi Young, with 300 special forces aboard, tailed the hijacked ship for days before moving in early Friday.

Army Lieutenant General Lee Seong-ho, at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says at least eight of the kidnappers died while the skipper of the seized ship was shot in the stomach by the pirates. His injuries are not considered life-threatening.

General Lee says three of the rescuers suffered minor injuries as they came under fire from the kidnappers.

The general says the operation demonstrates South Korea’s strong will to never negotiate with pirates.

This strong will is a fairly new development:

The government had vowed not endure a repeat of last year’s hijacking of an oil tanker also operated by Samho Shipping.

The Samho Dream and its crew were freed after 217 days, reportedly following a ransom payment of more than $9 million.

That prompted criticism here that the payment would encourage pirates to more aggressively target South Korean vessels.

So, why don’t the Americans, or other Westerners, do more of this? Well, some are trying to:

Erik Prince, the founder of the international security giant Blackwater Worldwide, is backing an effort by a controversial South African mercenary firm [Saracen International] to insert itself into Somalia’s bloody civil war by protecting government leaders, training Somali troops, and battling pirates and Islamic militants there, according to American and Western officials.
[...]
For years, Mr. Prince, a multimillionaire former Navy SEAL, has tried to spot new business opportunities in the security world. In 2008, he sought to capitalize on the growing rash of piracy off the Horn of Africa to win Blackwater contracts from companies that frequent the shipping lanes there. He even reconfigured a 183-foot oceanographic research vessel into a pirate-hunting ship for hire, complete with drone aircraft and .50-caliber machine guns.

Richard “Wretchard” Fernandez notes that when Malaysian naval commandos boarded a ship captured by Somali pirates and rescued 23 hostages in the Gulf of Aden they used the same secret weapon as the South Korean naval special forces: they were neither European nor American:

What you can do depends on what papers you carry. In 2008 the Times Online reported that “the Royal Navy, once the scourge of brigands on the high seas, has been told by the Foreign Office not to detain pirates because doing so may breach their human rights. Warships patrolling pirate-infested waters, such as those off Somalia, have been warned that there is also a risk that captured pirates could claim asylum in Britain.” Their chances of doing the same in Korea are probably vanishingly small.

The are real advantages to having the “right” nationality. The Independent darkly warned that “Erik Prince, the American founder of the private security firm Blackwater Worldwide, has cropped up at the centre of a controversial scheme to establish a new mercenary force to crack down on piracy and terrorism in the war-torn East African country of Somalia.” The crime isn’t being mercenary. They are a dime a dozen the world over. The crime is being American. But the Independent shouldn’t worry. Once Mr. Prince has trained the locals no further offense is possible.

Cecil Rhodes, who once admonished people to “remember that you are an Englishman, and have consequently won first prize in the lottery of life” would have been surprised to learn there are all kinds of advantages to being non-Western in the modern world. For one thing you are far less likely to be accused of racism, colonialism or human rights violations. This is probably why Prince is training locals, so the field of action is devolved to where blame may not attach.
[...]
If you want to win an counter-insurgency then indigenize it. Hide the white man and you are in the Left’s blind spot. Get the natives to kill the natives and nobody will notice. Don’t believe it? Try asking yourself this: which conflict, apart from the World Wars, has been the most destructive in 20th and 21st century history? Was it the America’s ‘criminal invasion of Iraq’? Afghanistan? Israel’s wars against the Arab? The Iraq-Iran War? Korea 1950 maybe? Then Vietnam surely. It is none of these. It’s the Second Congo War and it is all about minerals. What? Never heard of it?

The largest war in modern African history, it directly involved eight African nations, as well as about 25 armed groups. By 2008 the war and its aftermath had killed 5.4 million people, mostly from disease and starvation, making the Second Congo War the deadliest conflict worldwide since World War II. Millions more were displaced from their homes or sought asylum in neighboring countries.

Despite a formal end to the war in July 2003 and an agreement by the former belligerents to create a government

of national unity, 1,000 people died daily in 2004 from easily preventable cases of malnutrition and disease. The war and the conflicts afterwards are, among other things, driven by the trade of conflict minerals. …

Even though the war may have officially ended years ago, people in the Congo are still dying at a rate of an estimated 45,000 per month; 2,700,000 people have died since 2004.

When was the last time anybody demonstrated against the Second Congo War? You mean there was a First one? In 1952 Ralph Ellison wrote a novel called the Invisible Man, which argued that black people were socially invisible. The news is they’re still invisible, especially to the ideologues who claim to think of nothing but their welfare. Asians used to be in the same case. When was the last time the anti-war movement demonstrated against the Khmer Rouge? When the first reports of the genocide in Cambodia filtered out, Noam Chomsky explained it as the natural consequence of “the US war”.
[...]
Of the many explanations given for the rise of China and the North Asian countries, one may have been omitted: the freedom they enjoy from the artificialities of modern politically correct culture. They don’t have to listen to Chomsky or read the Guardian. They can light up a smoke, go to the moon, build nuclear reactors, construct a highway in months instead of years — even rescue hostages from pirates, without getting a single letter from some hokey European tribunal. To be born Chinese, Korean or Japanese today may be to win first prize in the lottery of life. They can deploy all the resources of a modern, technological world without being hindered by any of the fundamentally racist and obscurantist mumbo-jumbo of the Chomskys and the Eric Hobsbawms of the world. But the situation for Americans is tragically different. They have to listen to lectures and teaching moments from people who couldn’t find their way out of a paper bag.

Santa Barbara to realign sidewalk benches used by the homeless

Friday, January 21st, 2011

I couldn’t make this up. In order to keep panhandlers from harassing passersby, the city of Santa Barbara is realigning its sidewalk benches by 90 degrees — at a cost of $50,000.

Nature by Numbers

Friday, January 21st, 2011

Behold! Nature by numbers:

The author also explains the theory behind the movie.

(Hat tip to Russ Roberts.)

Web-controlled guns are illegal

Friday, January 21st, 2011

According to the Augusta Chronicle, a utility contractor passing through a Georgia Power Co. right-of-way stumbled across an Internet-controlled network of Web cameras and shotguns. He reported it to the Georgia Wildlife Resources Division, which in turn notified the U.S. Office of Homeland Security:

The bulletin, circulated by the Office of Homeland Security, said the guns were trained toward a food plot, and that their likely intent was for hunting in an area known to be infested with feral hogs.

Melissa Cummings, a spokeswoman for the Wildlife Resources Division, said an investigation was opened after the photo was brought to the agency’s attention.

“The guns and setup were not located during subsequent follow-up patrols in the area,” she said in an e-mail responding to questions about the case. “Capt. Jeff Swift has since talked with the property owner, Jay Williams, who stated that the firearms setup was still in the developmental stage and had not been deployed at that point to shoot any animal.”

Cummings said the landowner also told officers his intent was to develop the system as a remote-controlled hog-control device.

“Since then, Mr. Williams has sold the property,” Cummings said. “The system has not been seen since.”
No charges were filed in the case, but authorities say such technology is dangerous and could be used in other situations.

Despite the alarmist tone of the article — and of the io9 article that led me to it — it wasn’t clear to me what was so alarming, or illegal, about shotguns set up on the owner’s land to shoot animals eating his crops. They weren’t automated.

It turns out that so-called Internet hunting launched a panic a few years ago, so any web-controlled guns are now illegal in most states:

The first paid hunt is scheduled to occur on April 9 [2005] on a ranch outside San Antonio, and many are racing to stop the practice before it gets started. The dispute is raising new ethical questions over what is an appropriate form of hunting, and represents another example of the unlimited possibilities of the Internet and the sometimes public pressure to limit it.

Even the developer of the new online hunting website, Live-Shot.com, says the system is not for everyone. John Lockwood envisions it being used by those who love hunting but are unable to get out into the woods, such as the wheelchair-bound. “The idea of hunting this way doesn’t appeal to me,” says Mr. Lockwood. “Most of us love getting into the field. But there are many that cannot.”

Under the system, a person can control a camera and a firearm, shooting at real targets in real time, from a computer anywhere. For an additional fee, the meat or head can be shipped to the hunter.

Lockwood says the idea evolved out of knowing and working with disabled hunters as a young man. The first person to sign up to hunt through his website is Dale Hagberg, a paraplegic from Ligonier, Ind. Mr. Hagberg says he broke his neck in an accident almost 18 years ago and has only been able to watch hunting on TV.

On the other hand, “It’s pay-per-view slaughter,” according to Michael Markarian of the Humane Society.

While I can agree with Safari Club president John Monson that “this is not hunting,” I’m not sure it’s any less humane. If the deer population is starving and miserable, culling it remotely should work just as well as culling it the old-fashioned way. I see no additional pain and suffering.

A more recent Internet hunting fact sheet from the Humane Society states that the practice has been banned in 38 states, including Georgia. (Is killing feral pigs on your own farmland hunting?)

JFK’s own dirty trick

Friday, January 21st, 2011

Fifty years ago, as John F. Kennedy was getting sworn in as president, Nixon felt that Kennedy had stolen the election — but it went far beyond a little ballot-stuffing, Mark Feldstein says:

It began in the fall of 1960, when the Kennedy campaign spread word that Vice President Nixon had secretly pocketed money from billionaire Howard Hughes, whose far-flung business empire was heavily dependent on government contracts and connections. Reporters for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Time magazine corroborated the allegations, but their editors feared publishing such explosive information in the last days of the tightly fought campaign.

So the Kennedys turned to two crusading liberal columnists, Drew Pearson and Jack Anderson, who had been attacking Nixon for the past decade. It was “a journalistic atrocity” to conspire with “the Kennedy hawkshaws to help us get the goods on their opponent,” Anderson admitted, but scoring a scoop to destroy Nixon was simply too tempting to pass up.

Anderson dropped by the Washington office of Kennedy lawyer James McInerney. With “a pride that only the diligent investigator can know,” Anderson recalled, the Kennedy operative pulled out “a neatly arranged packet which I devoured unceremoniously.”

The confidential documents revealed how Hughes had funneled to the Nixon family $205,000 (worth about $1.6 million today) using various intermediaries, including one of Nixon’s brothers, to disguise the transaction. Later evidence would show that the vice president had personally phoned Hughes to ask for the money, which was used to help Nixon pay for an elegant, 9,000-square-foot Tudor house in Washington with eight bedrooms, six bathrooms, a library, a butler’s pantry and a solarium.

How did JFK’s campaign obtain this incriminating evidence? By paying the contemporary equivalent of $100,000 to a Los Angeles accountant named Phillip Reiner, one of the Hughes middlemen used to conceal Nixon’s role in the deal. Reiner was a Democrat who recently had had a falling-out with his partners. With his attorney, Reiner had contacted Robert Kennedy, his brother’s campaign manager. Soon after, a break-in occurred at the accountant’s old office — and the Kennedys suddenly acquired a thick file filled with secret records documenting Nixon’s shady deal. (Reiner’s estranged partner filed a burglary report with the police, but the crime was never solved.)
[...]
Indeed, the mysterious break-in to recover Nixon’s incriminating financial documents convinced him that such burglaries were standard practice in national politics. Nixon vowed that he would never be caught unprepared again, and he ultimately established his own corps of hard-nosed operatives to carry out espionage and sabotage, which culminated in the botched break-in a dozen years later at the Watergate office of the Democratic Party.

Pirates mean serious business

Thursday, January 20th, 2011

Pirates mean serious business, Spencer Ackerman reports:

A maritime industry group crunches the numbers and finds that the measures companies and governments take to avoid and combat the piracy threat cost between $7 and $12 billion every year.

The One Earth Future Foundation’s Oceans Beyond Piracy project documents exploding costs in piracy-related actions (.pdf). Ransoms paid to Somali pirates totaled $238 million in 2010 — the worst year for piracy on record, according to the International Chamber of Commerce. The average payout from ransoming a hijacked ship was $5.4 million last year, up from just $150,000 in 2005. (Check out this analysis of the Somali pirate business model from WIRED.)

And ransoms aren’t even the lion’s share of piracy’s costs to global maritime commerce. Insuring ships passing near piracy-prone areas like the Gulf of Aden costs between $460 million and $3.2 billion. Naval forces’ presence to protect merchant presence costs another $2 billion. Regional economies lose up to $1.25 billion annually. Re-routing ships to less pirate-prone waters costs up to $3 billion. (Hat tip: GCaptain.)

When you consider that a .50-caliber machine gun only costs $14,000 or so, other ideas spring to mind…

Protect and Survive

Thursday, January 20th, 2011

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the British government produced a series of public information films called Protect and Survive, about what to do in case of nuclear attack:

The series was considered classified material that was intended for transmission on all television channels only if the government determined that nuclear attack was likely within 72 hours, although recordings were leaked to organisations like CND and press organisations like the BBC, who broadcast it on Panorama as a discussion of public affairs.

I suppose I’m just old enough — and of the “right” temperament — that I don’t find them particularly chilling in their mundanity:


The printed booklet, from May 1980, condenses the advice down to a few pages.

Many people seem to react with a nervous laugh and an outburst like, “Oh, yeah, that’ll help when you get nuked!” — as if the advice had been presented as “What to do when you’re at Ground Zero,” rather than “What to do if you’re far enough away to survive the initial blast.”

Glenn Reynolds recently discussed the unexpected return of Duck and Cover, in this post-Cold War era of terrorist threats:

Even short-term sheltering (a day or two) before attempting to evacuate the area will dramatically increase the number of survivors. The difficulty, as the planning document puts it, will be overcoming people’s “natural instincts to run from danger and reunify with family members.” Overcoming those instincts will require preparation and education on the part of public health and school authorities.

When Americans think about nuclear war, we tend to think about the apocalyptic scene at the end of Dr. Strangelove, a war involving thousands of megaton-yield hydrogen bombs. (A megaton is the equivalent of a million tons of TNT, or about 60-70 times the power of the Hiroshima atomic bomb, which had an explosive power of around 15 kilotons, the equivalent of 15,000 tons of TNT). But in 1951, neither the United States nor the Soviet Union had yet tested a hydrogen bomb, and the duck-and-cover era authorities were basically preparing people for a rerun of Hiroshima and Nagasaki with us on the receiving end of relatively small numbers of (relatively) small nuclear weapons. “Duck and cover” advice is particularly effective there.

An atomic explosion can blind you, burn you, crush you with explosive power, or poison you with radiation. The “duck and cover” advice, based in no small part on the experience of Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors, was designed to do what could be done to minimize that.

Years ago, I found the following fact — from Table C, “Per-Cent Mortality at Various Distances” of The Atomic Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki — morbidly fascinating:

From 0 feet to 1000 feet from ground zero, percent mortality was 93.0. Not 100.0 percent. Not 99.9 percent. But 93.0 percent. Certain earthquake-proof concrete buildings survived the blast intact; I guess that accounts for the 7.0 percent.

The Rise of the New Global Elite

Thursday, January 20th, 2011

Chrystia Freeland looks at the rise of the new global elite:

Our light-speed, globally connected economy has led to the rise of a new super-elite that consists, to a notable degree, of first- and second-generation wealth. Its members are hardworking, highly educated, jet-setting meritocrats who feel they are the deserving winners of a tough, worldwide economic competition — and many of them, as a result, have an ambivalent attitude toward those of us who didn’t succeed so spectacularly. Perhaps most noteworthy, they are becoming a transglobal community of peers who have more in common with one another than with their countrymen back home. Whether they maintain primary residences in New York or Hong Kong, Moscow or Mumbai, today’s super-rich are increasingly a nation unto themselves.

This stat illustrates the shift:

In 1916, the richest 1 percent of Americans received only one-fifth of their income from paid work; in 2004, that figure had risen threefold, to 60 percent.

Some examples:

Peter Peterson, for example, is the son of a Greek immigrant who arrived in America at age 17 and worked his way up to owning a diner in Nebraska; his Blackstone co-founder, Stephen Schwarzman, is the son of a Philadelphia retailer.

And they are hardly the exceptions. Of the top 10 figures on the 2010 Forbes list of the wealthiest Americans, four are self-made, two (Charles and David Koch) expanded a medium-size family oil business into a billion-dollar industrial conglomerate, and the remaining four are all heirs of the self-made billionaire Sam Walton. Similarly, of the top 10 foreign billionaires, six are self-made, and the remaining four are vigorously growing their patrimony, rather than merely living off it.

It’s true that few of today’s plutocrats were born into the sort of abject poverty that can close off opportunity altogether— a strong early education is pretty much a precondition — but the bulk of their wealth is generally the fruit of hustle and intelligence (with, presumably, some luck thrown in). They are not aristocrats, by and large, but rather economic meritocrats, preoccupied not merely with consuming wealth but with creating it.

Freeland insists on calling the rich plutocrats, which fits when describing the Wall Street elite but misses the point entirely when describing John Galt:

You might say that the American plutocracy is experiencing its John Galt moment. Libertarians (and run-of-the-mill high-school nerds) will recall that Galt is the plutocratic hero of Ayn Rand’s 1957 novel, Atlas Shrugged. Tired of being dragged down by the parasitic, envious, and less talented lower classes, Galt and his fellow capitalists revolted, retreating to “Galt’s Gulch,” a refuge in the Rocky Mountains. There, they passed their days in secluded natural splendor, while the rest of the world, bereft of their genius and hard work, collapsed.

Galt is not a plutocrat; he’s a technical genius, like today’s Silicon Valley engineer-entrepreneurs. His enemies are plutocrats who use political pull to drag down their more-productive competitors.

That’s the whole point of the book, really. Sigh.

Strangers in our midst

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

Cringely shares an anecdote that explains why the clearly erratic behavior of the alleged gunman didn’t tip-off authorities earlier:

Thirty years ago I was teaching at Stanford University. One of my students was in a graduate program in the School of Education. He was, well, erratic at best. Both his attendance and his work were inconsistent. He either sulked in class or was prone to outbursts. Several of the women in the class told me he made them uncomfortable; he was too much in their faces and very aggressive about asking them out. Then one day he submitted a paper I had seen in the same class the year before.

Making women uncomfortable and being late or argumentative in class don’t cut to the heart of the educational process the way plagiarism does. The former are often issues of style and poor taste, but cheating is cheating, so I went to my department chairman for advice. He told me to continue as normal but privately confront the student and get him to rewrite the paper. Either that or we’d have to turn him in to the academic council, which would probably expel him for violating the Code of Conduct.

During the next class I asked him to stay after and speak with me. He didn’t. The class after that he came five minutes late and left five minutes early. This went on for a couple weeks so my chairman finally called the head of his program at the School of Education.

This was 30 years ago, remember, but those folks over in Education didn’t appear to know what they had on their hands, nor did they seem particularly inclined to learn about their problem student. He hadn’t seen his academic adviser in months. Weeks passed while they were doing what appeared to be nothing. Finally, two weeks to go in the term — two weeks before graduation for my student — the Ed School told him in a letter that they were kicking him out.

That’s when he finally showed up in my office. Some people smoked in offices back then and he was a smoker. I remember him, unkempt and nervous, unable to look me in the eye, sitting next to my desk smoking one cigarette after another using each to light the next. He could smoke an entire cigarette in about a minute, he was so nervous or high.

“Can’t you just give me a D? ” he pleaded.

I told him a D was the best he could hope for, but only if he rewrote the paper to my satisfaction. I wanted to know, too, what his plans were after graduation? He was going to teach at a middle school. Was the school aware of his issues?

No.

I couldn’t see sending him alone into a crowd of teenage girls so I added to my conditions that he find a different job — one where they knew what they were getting.

A suitable internship was available and he took it. The paper was finally finished the night before graduation, and one more Stanford grad went out into the working world.

And about three months later he started writing me hate letters.

I had ruined his career and his life. I was responsible for his lack of success after Stanford. If I hadn’t been so demanding and unreasonable in my assignments he wouldn’t have had to cheat.
So I deserved to die.

About this time a Stanford math professor was killed by a former graduate student who found him working late in his office, killing him with a hammer. That former student didn’t really have much to do with the professor, as I recall. The professor just happened to be the department chair and therefore represented the institution, I guess. My buddy Kirk, who was Doug Engelbart’s research assistant at SRI, rented a room in the professor’s house and I remember him quickly harvesting his marijuana crop when the cops said they were coming over to interview him.

I worked late at night back then in creaky old Redwood Hall. Sitting there grading papers at midnight every sound seemed to be an unwanted footstep. The math professor didn’t get any hate mail, to my knowledge and here I was getting a letter nearly every week.

Then they stopped.

My former student had taken his life, parking his car in the middle of the Golden Gate Bridge and jumping to his death.

I felt only relief.

If there is a lesson here in the context of last week’s events in Tucson it’s that I thought of my student and that student’s career, I thought of the values of the university, I thought of the safety of those middle school students, and I thought about myself, but it never occurred to me that my problem student would get a gun and shoot 20 people in a Safeway parking lot, killing six.

It’s hard to think more than a step or two beyond our experience. The fact that the teachers and administrators at Pima Community College didn’t see their guy being a mass murderer shouldn’t be surprising.

Macaques d’attaque

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

In France, the gangs don’t live in the inner city; they live in the suburbs. And they don’t have attack dogs; they have attack monkeys:

Imported illegally through Spain from Gibraltar, Morocco or Algeria, the Barbary apes are known for their powerful limbs, sharp teeth and short tempers. Veterinary experts say they can be turned into frightening and effective weapons.

“They live naturally on rocks or in a desert environment,” said Marie-Claude Bomsel of the natural history museum in Paris. “Removed from their natural habitat, they can become highly aggressive. They bite, and their favoured method of attack is to hurl themselves at people’s heads.”

Police believe as many as 500 Barbary apes may have been smuggled into France in the past two years. Bought for about £30 each by youngsters visiting their families in north Africa, they change hands on the council estates [housing projects] around Paris for as much as £300.

These so-called Barbary apes are more correctly known as Barbary macaques — with their stubby tails they qualify as true monkeys, not apes. (Also, that’s not a recent news story, but something reminded me of it; I can’t remember what.)

Evolution of Feathers

Wednesday, January 19th, 2011

Carl Zimmer explores the evolution of feathers:

First came simple filaments. Later, different lineages of theropods evolved various kinds of feathers, some resembling the fluffy down on birds today, some having symmetrically arranged barbs. Other theropods sported long, stiff ribbons or broad filaments, unlike the feathers on any living birds.

The long, hollow filaments on theropods posed a puzzle. If they were early feathers, how had they evolved from flat scales? Fortunately, there are theropods with threadlike feathers alive today: baby birds. All the feathers on a developing chick begin as bristles rising up from its skin; only later do they split open into more complex shapes. In the bird embryo these bristles erupt from tiny patches of skin cells called placodes. A ring of fast-growing cells on the top of the placode builds a cylindrical wall that becomes a bristle.

Reptiles have placodes too. But in a reptile embryo each placode switches on genes that cause only the skin cells on the back edge of the placode to grow, eventually forming scales. In the late 1990s Richard Prum of Yale University and Alan Brush of the University of Connecticut developed the idea that the transition from scales to feathers might have depended on a simple switch in the wiring of the genetic commands inside placodes, causing their cells to grow vertically through the skin rather than horizontally. In other words, feathers were not merely a variation on a theme: They were using the same genetic instruments to play a whole new kind of music. Once the first filaments had evolved, only minor modifications would have been required to produce increasingly elaborate feathers.

Until recently it was thought that feathers first appeared in an early member of the lineage of theropods that leads to birds. In 2009, however, Chinese scientists announced the discovery of a bristly-backed creature, Tianyulong, on the ornithischian branch of the dinosaur family tree—about as distant a relative of theropods as a dinosaur can be. This raised the astonishing possibility that the ancestor of all dinosaurs had hairlike feathers and that some species lost them later in evolution. The origin of feathers could be pushed back further still if the “fuzz” found on some pterosaurs is confirmed to be feathers, since these flying reptiles share an even older ancestor with dinosaurs.

There’s an even more astonishing possibility. The closest living relatives of birds, dinosaurs, and pterosaurs are crocodilians. Although these scaly beasts obviously do not have feathers today, the discovery of the same gene in alligators that is involved in building feathers in birds suggests that perhaps their ancestors did, 250 million years ago, before the lineages diverged. So perhaps the question to ask, say some scientists, is not how birds got their feathers, but how alligators lost theirs.

The modern bird’s feathers may be an exaptation, borrowed for flight, but originally “designed” for insulation, like hair, or for gaudy mating displays, as in many modern birds.

Orthotics Might Work

Tuesday, January 18th, 2011

For more than 30 years, Gina Kolata reports, Dr. Benno Nigg, a professor of biomechanics and co-director of the Human Performance Lab at the University of Calgary in Alberta, has asked how orthotics affect motion, stress on joints and muscle activity. His overall conclusion:

Shoe inserts or orthotics may be helpful as a short-term solution, preventing injuries in some athletes. But it is not clear how to make inserts that work. The idea that they are supposed to correct mechanical-alignment problems does not hold up.
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In his studies, he found there was no way to predict the effect of a given orthotic. Consider, for example, an insert that pushes the foot away from a pronated position, or rotated excessively outward. You might think it would have the same effect on everyone who pronates, but it does not.

One person might respond by increasing the stress on the outside of the foot, another on the inside. Another might not respond at all, unconsciously correcting the orthotic’s correction.

“That’s the first problem we have,” Dr. Nigg said. “If you do something to a shoe, different people will react differently.”

The next problem is that there may be little agreement among orthotics makers about what sort of insert to prescribe.

In one study discussed in his new book, “Biomechanics of Sport Shoes,” Dr. Nigg sent a talented distance runner to five certified orthotics makers. Each made a different type of insert to “correct” his pronation.

The athlete wore each set of orthotics for three days and then ran 10 kilometers, about 6 miles. He liked two of the orthotics and ran faster with them than with the other three. But the construction of the two he liked was completely different.

Then what, Dr. Nigg asked in series of studies, do orthotics actually do?

They turn out to have little effect on kinematics — the actual movement of the skeleton during a run. But they can have large effects on muscles and joints, often making muscles work as much as 50 percent harder for the same movement and increasing stress on joints by a similar amount.

As for “corrective” orthotics, he says, they do not correct so much as lead to a reduction in muscle strength.

In one recent review of published papers, Dr. Nigg and his colleagues analyzed studies on orthotics and injury prevention. Nearly all published studies, they report, lacked scientific rigor. For example, they did not include groups that, for comparison, did not receive orthotics. Or they discounted people who dropped out of the study, even though dropouts are often those who are not benefiting from a treatment.

The Dubai Job

Tuesday, January 18th, 2011

One year ago, Israeli operatives botched the Dubai job — not by failing to kill their target, but by getting caught on CCTV:

A source close to the investigation said that the moment [Lieutenant General Dhahi Khalfan Tamim, chief of the Dubai Police] concluded that Al-Mabhouh had not died of natural causes, he ordered his people to search Dubai’s extensive databases and identify everyone who had arrived in the emirate shortly before the killing and left soon after. This list was then cross-referenced against the names of visitors who had been in Dubai back in February, March, June, and November of 2009, all the times of Al-Mabhouh’s previous visits. The short list that emerged was then checked against hotel registers, and footage from hotel security cameras at the times these individuals checked in made it possible to put a face to each name. Tamim then compared these visual identifications to the footage from the Al Bustan Hotel at the time of Al-Mabhouh’s death, which gave him the names of the assassins. And searching databases of financial transactions gave him the identities of the rest of the team, all of which Dubai authorities posted online for the world to see.

Tamim also turned out to be extremely media-savvy. He presided over well-planned press conferences, carefully doling out information in a manner guaranteed to keep viewers — especially in the Arab world — coming back for more. He publicly called for the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and of Meir Dagan, whom he challenged to “be a man” and take responsibility for the assassination. More realistically, perhaps, he called for international arrest warrants for all members of the hit squad, which caused considerable diplomatic embarrassment for Israel. When asked by an interviewer what the hit team’s biggest mistake was, Tamim answered that the presence of two men waiting for hours in the lobby in tennis gear with uncovered rackets was so bizarre that it instantly raised suspicion.

The laughable attempts of the Mossad operatives to disguise their appearance made for good television coverage, but the more fundamental errors committed by the team had less to do with cloak-and-dagger disguises than with a kind of arrogance that seems to have pervaded the planning and execution of the mission.

Despite the fact that Dubai is a hostile environment — a distant Arab state with ties to Iran — many details of the mission suggest the Mossad treated it as if they were operating inside a base country. The use of Payoneer cards is one obvious example. For the most part, prepaid debit cards are only used domestically within the United States, and while Payoneer does issue debit cards that are valid internationally, these are relatively rare. That several of the team members were using the same type of unusual card issued by the same company — one whose CEO, Yuval Tal, is a veteran of an elite Israeli Defense Force commando unit — gave the Dubai police a common denominator to connect the various members of the team.

It has also become apparent that in order to avoid calling one another’s cell phones directly, the operatives used a dedicated private switchboard in Austria. Any operative trying to reach a colleague — whether in the hotel down the street or at the command post in Israel—  dialed one of a handful of numbers in Austria, from which the call was then rerouted to its destination. But since dozens of calls were made to and from this short list of Austrian numbers over a period of less than two days, the moment that the cover of a single operative was blown and his cell phone records became available to the authorities, all others who called or received calls from the same numbers were at risk of being identified.

It gets worse. One of the most serious mistakes made by the planners of the operation — certainly the one that caused the greatest embarrassment to the Mossad and to Israel — involved the use of forged foreign identities.

When it comes to false identities and false passports, the Mossad has a unique problem, one that most Western intelligence services do not face. When the CIA or the British SIS (or MI6, as it is commonly known) send an operative into the field, they can usually provide him or her with a valid U.S. or U.K. passport issued in whatever false name and identity the individual will be using. But an Israeli spy cannot use an Israeli passport, since the most important targets for Israeli espionage are in countries that do not maintain diplomatic relations with Israel. For this reason, the need for foreign documentation has always been an acute one in the Mossad, which has historically resolved this problem by forging what it needed. Naturally, this is done without the authorization of the countries involved.

Whenever the Mossad is found out, as has happened from time to time, a major diplomatic scandal erupts. In the summer of 1986 an Israeli intelligence courier in West Germany left a bag containing forged British passports in a phone booth. The British government was outraged, and for a long time afterwards all ties between the British and Israeli intelligence services were cut. They were renewed only in the mid-1990s, after the Mossad and SIS signed a memorandum stating that neither would operate without consent on each other’s soil or work against each other’s interests. Historically speaking, though, the practice of forging passports was relatively simple, and usually went undiscovered. Rafi Eitan, now in his 80s, was at one time one of the Mossad’s master spies. He famously led the team that captured Nazi war criminal Adolf Eichmann in Argentina in 1960. “In the past it used to be so easy for us to assume new identities and to invent cover stories,” Eitan told me. “There was no Internet and there were no computers, and so no real possibility of checking who and what you were. We used to say that it was possible to forge a passport of a country that doesn’t exist!”

For this mission, all but one of the team members was traveling with a forged passport. The one passport that wasn’t forged belonged to “Michael Bodenheimer,” a member of the team and supposedly a German national. Once the Dubai authorities made public the names and nationalities under which the operatives had traveled, the German Federal Police opened an investigation into the provenance of Bodenheimer’s passport. What they soon found out (as was reported in the German magazine Der Spiegel) was that a valid German passport had been issued in June 2009 to a Mossad operative—using the name Michael Bodenheimer—who claimed German citizenship through his “father.” (The “father,” also an Israeli, had recently claimed that he was “Hans Bodenheimer,” born in Germany and a victim of the Holocaust, and he was granted immediate citizenship under a provision of the German constitution that allows for such cases. A real Holocaust survivor named Hans Bodenheimer did in fact exist, but it was not the man who applied for German citizenship.)

What the blown identities of the operatives illustrate more than anything is the now seemingly insurmountable problem posed by twenty-first-century counterespionage systems. False identities and cover stories are no longer any match for well-placed security cameras, effective passport control, and computer software that can almost instantly track communications and financial transactions