The Next Empire

Monday, May 3rd, 2010

Howard French travels deep into the heart of Africa and comes back declaring China the next empire — because it’s doing a more thorough job this time:

The railroad — known as the Tazara line — was built by China in the early 1970s, at a cost of nearly $500 million, an extraordinary expenditure in the thick of the Cultural Revolution, and a symbol of Beijing’s determination to hold its own with Washington and Moscow in an era when Cold War competition over Africa raged fierce. At the time of its construction, it was the third-largest infrastructure project ever undertaken in Africa, after the Aswan Dam in Egypt and the Volta Dam in Ghana.

Today the Tazara is a talisman of faded hopes and failed economic schemes, an old and unreliable railway with too few working locomotives. Only briefly a thriving commercial artery, it has been diminished by its own decay and by the roads and air routes that have sprung up around it. Maintenance costs have saddled Tanzania and Zambia with debts reportedly as high as $700 million in total, and the line now has only about 300 of the 2,000 wagons it needs to function normally, according to Zambian news reports.

Yet the railway traces a path through a region where hopes have risen again, rekindled by a new sort of development also driven by China — and on an unprecedented scale. All across the continent, Chinese companies are signing deals that dwarf the old railroad project. The most heavily reported involve oil production; since the turn of the millennium, Chinese companies have muscled in on lucrative oil markets in places like Angola, Nigeria, Algeria, and Sudan. But oil is neither the largest nor the fastest-growing part of the story. Chinese firms are striking giant mining deals in places like Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and building what is being touted as the world’s largest iron mine in Gabon. They are prospecting for land on which to build huge agribusinesses. And to get these minerals and crops to market, they are building major new ports and thousands of miles of highway.

French asks, how does Africa overcome the pattern of extractive foreign engagements? It doesn’t:

This question, which one hears almost everywhere, was addressed most powerfully by the Congolese lawyer I met in Lubumbashi. He received me in his office in his downtown home, where he bathes in water collected from an old parabolic satellite dish, and where he says the mail gets delivered once or twice a year, after he pays a bribe to the post office.

I asked him if the arrival of the Chinese was a new and great opportunity for the continent, as some have said. “The problem is not who is the latest buyer of our commodities,” he replied. “The problem is to determine what is Africa’s place in the future of the global economy, and up to now, we have seen very little that is new. China is taking the place of the West: they take our raw materials and they sell finished goods to the world What Africans are getting in exchange, whether it is roads or schools or finished goods, doesn’t really matter. We remain under the same old schema: our cobalt goes off to China in the form of dusty ore and returns here in the form of expensive batteries.”

There’s Only One Ex-Marine

Monday, May 3rd, 2010

I doubt the NPR staff includes many Marines, and I doubt they can find many Marines in their social circle, which is why they produce headlines like this: Ex-Marine Hopes To Become Oldest Rookie In NFL.

Once a Marine, always a Marine — semper fi. Or, recognizing the exception for those who have disgraced the Corps — there’s only one ex-Marine: Lee Harvey Oswald.

The (Potential) Enemies List

Sunday, May 2nd, 2010

Bryan Caplan expects his upcoming book, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, to be controversial, and he has already composed a potential enemies list:

  1. Environmentalists — for claiming that more people are good for world.
  2. Feminists — for downplaying the horrible effects of kids on women.
  3. Child advocates — for arguing that nurture has little effect on kids’ adult outcomes (never mind that I repeatedly distinguish between variation within the normal range and poverty/ abuse/ worse).
  4. Safety activists — for emphasizing that kids are five times safer than they were in 1950.
  5. Bioconservatives — for giving assisted reproductive technology three cheers —and happily biting the bullet of human cloning.
  6. Perfectionist academics — economists, psychologists, sociologists, etc. — who prefer silence to simplification, and “proof” to probability.  I was initially worried that behavioral geneticists would be on this list, but I’ve gotten some strong signals that they’ll be happy with my popularization of their field.

The Fundamental Theorem of Politics

Sunday, May 2nd, 2010

Greg Mankiw shares this cartoon, which elucidates the fundamental theorem of politics:

(Hat tip to Bryan Caplan.)

Privilege Pulls Qatar Toward Unhealthy Choices

Sunday, May 2nd, 2010

The Connecticut-sized nation of Qatar has the second highest per capita GDP in the world, with a native elite of 250,000 surrounded by more than a million foreign workers. Now the combination of new wealth and old traditions is leading to serious health problems:

According to the International Association for the Study of Obesity, Qatar ranks sixth globally for prevalence of obesity and has the highest rate of obesity among boys in the Middle East and North African region. A recent article in the Qatari newspaper Al Watan said that local health experts predicted that within five years, 73 percent of Qatari women and 69 percent of the men would qualify as obese.

Obesity is considered the most important factor in the development of diabetes and is a prime contributor to many other ailments, like hypertension. The International Diabetes Federation ranks Qatar fifth globally in terms of the proportion of people aged 20 to 79 with diabetes.

The March of Dimes Foundation, a United States charity that focuses on trying to wipe out birth defects, listed Qatar as 16th globally for the incidence of birth defects per 1,000 live births. The chief cause of the problem in Qatar is consanguineous marriages, experts here said. Saudi Arabia ranked second globally.

For all of these challenges, and for all of its wealth, Qatar has primarily focused on the treatment of diseases rather than on prevention.

Louis XIV’s Dinner Vs. Yours

Saturday, May 1st, 2010

Everyone’s a king now, as demonstrated by this video on Louis XIV’s dinner vs. yours — which bears a striking resemblance to the old Hitchhiker’s Guide TV show:

That video is promoting Matt Ridley’s upcoming book, The Rational Optimist — which he’ll be happy to discuss, in person, next winter, on the first-ever Reason cruise. (Think of it as Seasteading Lite.)

The Striking Deficit

Saturday, May 1st, 2010

Rory Miller (Meditations on Violence) discusses the striking deficit in self-defense training:

I’m trying to brainstorm my way around a training artifact.

Proper striking can be effective. I’ve put people down and broken bones with techniques ranging from hook punches to slaps. On the other hand, they’re really idiosyncratic. If anyone tells you that a specific strike will always have a specific effect, the person is lying. Or misinformed. In my personal experience, I’ve taken a crowbar to the back of the head with no injury whatsoever, and a slap to the back of the head that left me dizzy and puking for three days. I’ve been lifted in the air from a solid kick straight to the crotch and didn’t feel it for well over a minute… and I’ve been flicked in the crotch and gone down.

Strikes are dangerous. Even if you don’t notice that you have broken bones until after the fight, they are still broken and can take a long time to heal. That solid shot to the head might not hamper you at all, until a few hours later when the tissue swells and you pass out. Maybe die. Hours after you ‘won.’

Because of all this, strikes require special safety restrictions in training. Maybe you put big pillows on your fist. Maybe you pull the strikes and practice missing. But something is done to make sure that the strikes in training don’t do what strikes do…

Which has two bad effects. One is obvious, in that all the training to miss (whether you call it pulling or just use contact to a safe area like simulating hitting the groin by hitting the thigh) will influence you to miss in real life. Trust me — you’ll have other things to think about than trying to remember what you simulated in practice and substituting the ‘reality’ variation.

The other bad effect is that it increases the value of grappling techniques in sparring.

That’s not in and of itself a bad thing. The ability to move, control, lock and strangle a human body are some of the most effective and reliable base skills. But when you are practicing, whether sparring or scenarios, and the strikes have to be controlled and the submissions can go to submission, you wind up with scenarios that always end with a lock or strangle.

Unless you stay alert, it can seem like locks and strangles work and strikes don’t. The thing is that real strangles work far better than pretend strikes.

My response:

Rory, I think you make an excellent point about how idiosyncratic strikes can be. (The same holds for gunshots, knife wounds, etc.) Even if most punches break no bones and do no lasting damage, enough of them do to make hardcore training too dangerous to sustain over many cumulative hours. Sooner or later, something bad happens.

On the other hand, if you never train with hard strikes, the rest of your training can drift away from the reality of what does or does not work in a real fight.

I suppose you can free-ride to some extent on other students of your art who do train with hard contact. Your own muay thai training may lack a certain something if you never spar hard, but at least the style stays true to what works in the ring.

I’m conflicted about your point that grappling becomes overvalued in training. I came to the same conclusion as a kid who studied kempo. In play-fighting, a bigger kid could easily maul me, and I wasn’t about to break his nose or gouge his eye to demonstrate my (supposed) skills.

On the other hand, as someone who grapples regularly now, I find that people, if anything, overreact to strikes in casual training, because, when it’s not really life or death, even a black eye or a bloody lip is a pretty big deal.

Anyway, what do you do about strikes being too dangerous to practice? I think you need a mixed strategy. If you simply pull all your punches, you train to pull your punches. If you always wear padded gloves, you train to punch in padded gloves. You can get around this by training against the focus mitts without gloves, sparring hard with gloves, and sparring with grappling and pulled punches. No one set of bad habits becomes fully ingrained.

Col. Frederick Gustavus Burnaby

Saturday, May 1st, 2010

Lexington Green mentions a fascinating character, Col. Frederick Gustavus Burnaby:

Col. Frederick Gustavus Burnaby, late of the Royal Horse Guards, author of A Ride to Khiva: Travels and Adventures in Central Asia and On Horseback Through Asia Minor. He was also a pioneering aeronaut, author of A Ride Across the Channel: and Other Adventures in the Air. Col. Burnaby met his death in the hand-to-hand fighting of the Battle of Abu Klea, 1885. Queen Victoria fainted when she heard of his death.

Captain Frederick Augustus Burnaby of the Royal Horse Guards was no ordinary officer. For a start he was a man of prodigious strength and stature. Standing six-foot-four in his stockinged feet, weighing fifteen stone, and possessing a 47 inch chest, he was reputed to be the strongest man in the British Army. Indeed, it was even said that he could carry a small pony under his arm.… Nor was this son of a country parson entirely brawn. He also displayed a remarkable gift for languages, being fluent in at least seven, including Russian, Turkish and Arabic. Finally, he was born with an insatiable appetite for adventure which he combined with a vigorous and colourful prose style. Inevitably, these two latter qualities brought him into contact with Fleet Street, with the resul that during his generous annual leaver he served abroad on several occasions as a special correspondent of The Times and other journals … .

From The Great Game: The Struggle for Empire in Central Asia by Peter Hopkirk.

Outbreak

Saturday, May 1st, 2010

Shannon Love calls this xkcd strip, Why Zombie Movies Don’t Begin in Texas.