"Do You Austrians Have a Better Idea?"

Friday, February 6th, 2009

“Austrian” economist Robert Murphy answers the question, "Do You Austrians Have a Better Idea?"

Now, in truth, someone doesn’t have to have a better suggestion in order to point out that a recommended strategy will exacerbate the situation. If an allergic man has been stung by a bee, I don’t know what to do except rush him to the hospital and maybe scour the cupboards looking for Benadryl. But I’m pretty sure drawing blood from his leg, in order to inject it into his arm and thus “stimulate his immune system,” is a bad idea on numerous accounts — not least of which, is that I’m pretty sure an allergic reaction means your immune system needs to calm down. But the point is, if a bunch of guys hold the man down — he has to be forced to endure the procedure for his own good, don’t you know — I feel perfectly qualified in yelling, “Stop!”

He goes on to give concrete policy recommendation that are, of course, politically impossible.

Blowback Revisited

Thursday, February 5th, 2009

In Blowback Revisited, William Lind notes that our soldiers overseas are being introduced to statelessness and how a place works when the state disappears:

To the large majority of American and European soldiers, this is a lesson in horror. They return home thankful they live in a place where the state endures. The last thing they want is to see their native country turn into another Iraq or Afghanistan.

But a minority will learn a different lesson. They will see statelessness as a field of opportunity where people who are clever and ruthless can rise fast and far. They look upon themselves as that kind of people. They will also have learned it is possible to fight the state, and how to do so. The effectiveness of IEDs is part of that lesson; so are the power and rewards that come to members of militias and gangs. In their own minds, and perhaps in reality, they will have found a new world in which they can hope to thrive.

There is a parallel here with what the men who fought in the trenches on the Western Front in World War I learned. For most, it was the worst time in their lives. Their experience is captured by All Quiet on the Western Front. But a minority found it the best time of their lives. Their book is Ernst Jünger’s Storm of Steel. It was these men, looking to re-create that tremendous experience, who made up the Brownshirts of the S. A. Their very name, Storm Troopers, originated in what they had done during the war. They came home determined to create a different Germany, and they did.

That’s more than a little unfair to Jünger, by the way. He was conservative and militarist and opposed to the Nazis.

Why do we normalize brain size by body weight?

Thursday, February 5th, 2009

On the site for their new book, The 10,000 Year Explosion, Cochran and Harpending share some “deleted scenes” that didn’t make it into the book, including this piece, which asks, Why do we normalize brain size by body weight?

Like other early humans, Neanderthals were relatively uncreative; their tools changed very slowly and they show no signs of art, symbolism, or trade. Their brains were large and had grown larger over time, in parallel with humans in Africa, but we really have no idea what they did with them. Since brains are metabolically expensive, natural selection wouldn’t have favored an increase in brain size unless it increased fitness, but we don’t know what function that those big brains served. Usually people explain that those big brains are not as impressive as they seem, since the brain-to-body weight ratio is what’s really important, and Neanderthals were heavier than modern humans of the same height.

You may wonder why we normalize brain size by body weight. We wonder as well.

Among less intelligent creatures, such as amphibians and reptiles, most of the brain is busy dealing with a flood of sensory data. You’d expect that brain size would have to increase with body size in some way in order to keep up. If you assume that the key is how much surface the animal has, in order to monitor what’s causing that nagging itch and control all the muscles needed for movement, brain size should scale as the 2/3rds power of weight. If an animal has a brain that’s bigger than predicted by that 2/3rds power scaling law, then maybe it’s smarter than average. That argument works reasonable well for a wide range of species, but it can’t make sense for animals with big brains. In particular it can’t make sense for primates, since in that case we know that most of the brain is used for purposes other than muscle control and immediate reaction to sensation. Look at this way – if dividing brain volume by weight is a valid approach, Nero Wolfe must be really, really stupid.

Fictional detective Nero Wolfe is frequently described by Archie Goodwin, the narrator of the stories, as weighing “a seventh of a ton” (about 286 pounds or 130 kg).

Anyway, they go on to address the larger problem of Neanderthal intelligence:

We think that Neanderthal brains really were large, definitely larger than those of people today. This doesn’t necessarily mean that they were smarter, at least not as a culture. The archaeological record certainly indicates that they were not, since their material culture was definitely simpler than that of their successors. In fact, they may have been relatively unintelligent, even with their big brains. Although brain size certainly is correlated with intelligence in modern humans, it is not the only factor that affects intelligence. By the way, you may have read somewhere (The Mismeasure of Man) that brain volume has no relationship to intelligence, but that’s just a lie.

One paradoxical possibility is that Neanderthals lacked complex language and so had to be smart as individuals in order to learn their culture and technology, while that same lack severely limited their societal achievements. Complex language of the type we see in modern humans makes learning a lot easier: without it, learning to create even Mousterian tools may have been difficult. In that case, individuals would have to repeatedly re-invent the wheel (so to speak) while there would have been little societal progress.

It could also be that Neanderthal brains were less powerful than you’d expect because there just weren’t enough Neanderthals. That may sound obscure, but bear with us. The problem is that evolution is less efficient in small populations, in the same way that any statistical survey – polls, for example -becomes less accurate with fewer samples. Natural selection is pretty good at eliminating a defective gene when its disadvantage is significantly great than the inverse of the population size. When the disadvantage is smaller than that, the defective gene has a reasonable probability of reaching high frequency by drift. It can even become universal in that population. This tendency is insignificant in large populations, but it can lead to problems in small ones, as more and more slightly deleterious mutations accumulate. There is a countervailing tendency — the generation of favorable mutations, which are likely to spread — but that tendency becomes weaker and weaker as the population becomes smaller. Thus, over the long term, a population that is too small is likely to go extinct for purely genetic reasons, if some other disaster doesn’t strike first. This is an issue that concerns conservationists who are trying to maintain endangered species such as the whooping crane or Florida panther.

IBM to build world’s first national smart utility grid

Thursday, February 5th, 2009

IBM to build world’s first national smart utility grid — in Malta:

As with other island states, power and water are intricately linked on Malta. All of the archipelago’s electricity is generated from imported fuel oil while the country depends on energy-intensive desalinization plants for half its water supply. Meanwhile, rising sea levels threaten its underground freshwater supplies.

“About 55% of the cost of water on Malta is related to electricity — it’s a pretty staggering amount,” Guido Bartels, general manager of IBM’s Global Energy & Utilities Industry division, told Green Wombat from Malta on Tuesday.

So how can digitizing the grid help? IBM and its partners will replace Malta’s 250,000 utility meters with interactive versions that will allow Malta’s electric utility, Enemalta, to monitor electricity use in real-time and set variable rates that reward customers that cut their power consumption. As part of the $91 million (€70 million) project, a sensor network will be deployed on the grid — along transmission lines, substations and other infrastructure — to provide information that will let the utility more efficiently manage electricity distribution and detect potential problems. IBM will provide the software that will aggregate and analyze all that data so Enemalta can identify opportunities to reduce costs — and emissions from Malta’s carbon-intensive power plants. (For an excellent primer on smart grids, see Earth2Tech editor Katie Fehrenbacher’s recent story.)

A sensor network will also be installed on the water system for Malta’s Water Services Corporation. “They’ll indicate where there is water leakage and provide better information about the water network,” says Robert Aguilera, IBM’s lead executive for the Malta project, which is set to be completed in 2012. “The information that will be collected by the system will allow the government to make decisions on how to save money on water and electricity consumption.”

Cutting the volume of water that must be desalinated would, of course, reduce electricity use in the 122-square-mile (316-square-kilometer) nation.

Microsoft’s primary failing

Thursday, February 5th, 2009

Microsoft’s primary failing, Cringely says, is technical arrogance:

Some of this is native and some is a vestige of Redmond’s long association with IBM. Taking the IBM connection first, let’s look at something current Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said in my 1996 PBS documentary, Triumph of the Nerds:
“In IBM there’s a religion in software that says you have to count KLOCs (pronounced KAY-lock), and a KLOC is a thousand lines of code. How big a project is it? Oh, it’s sort of a 10 KLOC project. This is a 20 KLOCer. And this is 5O KLOCs. And IBM wanted to sort of make it the religion about how we got paid. How much money we made off OS/2, how much they did. How many KLOCs did you do? And we kept trying to convince them — hey, if we have — a developer’s got a good idea and he can get something done in 4 KLOCs instead of 20K-LOCs, should we make less money? Because he’s made something smaller and faster, less KLOCs. KLOCs, KLOCs, that’s the methodology. Ugh!”

While Microsoft learned a lot from IBM, this whole KLOC-orientation and associated ass-backward reward scheme repulsed them because it led to bloated code. So just like a child who grows to ultimately emulate or rebel against parental examples, Microsoft shunned the KLOC and embraced the power of tight code. And though it might surprise you from looking at their current product lines, they still do.

The way a company that prides itself on tight code can build something as floppy (in every sense) as Windows Vista is because Vista is simply too big for any one Microsoft executive or engineer to understand in detail. So they embrace the idea that piling lots of chunks of tight code somehow won’t turn into a huge steaming mass of not-very-tight product. But it does.

But wait, there’s more! Somehow this mistaking fat for muscle became institutionalized at Microsoft through a unique group of people called Program Managers or PMs. This is a Microsoft invention intended to make their products more useful and elegant, yet in practice the PMs do just the opposite.

Program Managers at Microsoft are the advocates for software usability. They link (or are supposed to link) to the rest of the company development, usability and testing. They write specs and try to optimize the user experience, though with only limited success.

The bloated development, test, and PM teams across the company are a sign of Microsoft’s obsession with technology and all things technical. There aren’t nearly enough usability engineers, designers, writers, editors, and other people who worry about how usable the software actually is. In other words, like the people who run the feature teams at Apple.

A Microsoft designer once said that the biggest difference between Apple and Microsoft was that at Apple designers usually owned the product features, while at Microsoft, PMs always own the features. And most of the PMs at Microsoft are highly technical, often with computer science degrees. This is considered a good thing, by the way, but it isn’t good at all. It means the PMs tend to lean in favor of the developers just as management leans in favor of the developers, too. So in most cases where usability goes head-to-head with development, usability loses. And so do users.

The answer for Microsoft is not to blindly copy Apple because Microsoft will never BE Apple and will never have a Steve Jobs as boss. The answer is to adopt a similar product design philosophy to Apple’s with the focus squarely on usability.

This will not happen EVER with the present culture at Microsoft.

Titanoboa cerrejonensis

Wednesday, February 4th, 2009

Titanoboa cerrejonensis sounds like something out of Robert E. Howard’s Hyborian Age:

Fossils from northeastern Colombia reveal the biggest snake ever discovered: a behemoth that stretched 42 to 45 feet long, reaching more than 2,500 pounds.


“This thing weighs more than a bison and is longer than a city bus,” enthused snake expert Jack Conrad of the American Museum of Natural History in New York, who was familiar with the find.

The Eruption of New Religions Shaped by Upheaval

Wednesday, February 4th, 2009

Joel Garreau believes that the eruption of new religions shaped by upheaval will change everything:

We are turning environmentalism into an elaborate moral narrative. We are doing the same for neurology. And possibly globalism. This makes me wonder whether we are creating the greatest eruption of religion in centuries, if not millennia — an epoch comparable to the Great Awakening, if not the Axial Age. If so, this will change everything.

Financially, politically, climatically and technologically, the ground is moving beneath our feet. Our narratives of how the world works are not matching the facts. Yet humans are pattern-seeking, story-telling animals. Human beings cannot endure emptiness and desolation. We will always fill such a vacuum with meaning.

Think of the constellations in the night sky. Humans eagerly connect dots and come up with the most elaborate — even poetic — tales, adorning them with heroes and myths, rather than tolerate randomness. The desire to believe goes way back in evolutionary history.

I was not expecting this kind of conclusion:

If we came to believe deeply that there is a value somehow in the way things are connected — the web of life, perhaps — is that the next Enlightenment?

The importance of creating such a commonly held framework is that without it, we have no way to move forward together. How can we agree on what must be done if we do not have in common an agreement on what constitutes the profoundly important?

Henry and the Cape Buffalo

Wednesday, February 4th, 2009

On the site for their new book, The 10,000 Year Explosion, Cochran and Harpending share some “deleted scenes” that didn’t make it into the book, like the story of Henry and the Cape Buffalo, which sheds some light on just how dangerous it must have been to hunt big game with nothing but a thrusting spear:

When I (HCH) was a graduate student in the 1960’s I spent a year and a half in the northern Kalahari desert doing fieldwork with !Kung Bushmen, foragers who lived by foraging wild foodstuffs and hunting game animals. With several other graduate students we had a base camp near the border with Southwest Africa (now Namibia) about 100 miles south of the Caprivi Strip on the northern border of Botswana. The nearest source of supplies was a two-day trip from their camp by four wheel drive truck.

Several weeks after the rainy season ended there were reports in the neighborhood of a cape buffalo that was harassing people and animals. Often older males lose rank and leave herd to wander by themselves, angry and uncomfortable. They are a threat to people and stock, especially horses.

We were out of meat in our camp, and so with the confidence and foolishness of youth we decided to hunt down the buffalo. We had visions of steaks and chops as well as many pounds of dried meat for travel rations and dog food. At that time permits for Buffalo were only a few dollars from the Botswana game department, and we had several. Although there were stories of Buffalo being aggressive and dangerous to hunt, to my eye they were simply large cattle. Bushmen never hunted them with their poison arrow and spear technology, but they too were naïve and had great faith in our high-powered rifle.

One morning we set off to where the animal had last been reported. The party was a colleague, several young Bushman males, and myself. We soon picked up its tracks and for several hours followed its wanderings through the low thorny scrub. To me the tracks looked exactly like those of a cow but the Bushmen never hesitated. When it was apparent at one point that there were no tracks at all in view I asked, and the Bushmen told me that there was no point in following the tracks since they knew exactly where it was going. We often saw this hunting with Bushmen –they used actual tracks as a guide but knew the habits of animals so well that they often proceeded on their own to pick up actual tracks later on.

This went on for hours until, suddenly, a young man grabbed my shoulder and said “there it is.” I looked long and hard until I saw it, well camouflaged behind several yards of thick brush, sideways, staring hard at us with its bright pig eyes. It was about forty yards away.


As I brought the rifle up I was dismayed to realize that it still had a powerful telescopic sight. I should have removed it and use open iron sights in thick bush but I had forgotten. With the magnification of the scope I saw a black mass surrounded by brush. It took a moment to locate the front legs, then the chest. Oriented, I aimed and fired. “Bang-whump”, the bang from the rifle and the whump as the bullet struck the buffalo. He jerked a little, then simply stood there staring at me. “Bang-whump, bang-whump” as I fired two more rounds.

Now he tossed his head and snorted, then started running toward us. Buffalo charge with their nose high, only lowering their head to use their horns on contact. I fired one more round at the charging animal, head on, simply pointing at him because he was so close, then turned and ran. We discovered later that the bullet had struck his shoulder, ricocheted off his scapula, and exited through the skin on his side. It certainly didn’t slow him down at all: I might as well have been shooting at a railroad locomotive.

There were three of us running away now from the charging animal: my colleague, our camp dog, and myself. Perhaps fortunately for us the buffalo went after the dog, which handily outran it. After its charge the buffalo wandered off several dozen yards and collapsed in a thicket.

My colleague and I got together after the charge, brushed each other off, then noticed that none of the Bushmen with us was near. We looked around and called but got no response. Then, out of the corner of my eye, I saw a fellow about fifteen feet up a tree frantically signaling me to be quiet, then pointing at the (apparently) dead buffalo. I laughed and told him to come down, the animal was dead, it was getting dark and we needed to get started butchering it. He shook his head, silent, and frantically waved us back in the direction opposite the carcass. All the Bushmen were up in trees, all waving at us to get away, no one making any noise.

My rifle was empty, slung over my shoulder, as I honed a belt knife for the job ahead. I urged everyone to get out of the trees and get to work but everyone refused. I said “all right, we will just make sure”, then loaded my rifle and sat in a stable shooting position. The buffalo’s carcass was about forty yards away with its back to us. I took careful aim at the center of the neck, exhaled, and fired. “Bang-thump”.

Immediately the “dead” buffalo got to its feet, glared at us, and walked away.

Read the whole thing.

The Tough Guy Challenge

Wednesday, February 4th, 2009

The 23rd Tough Guy challenge at Perton, south Staffordshire took place recently — and it does indeed look tough:

The Age of Sustainable Machines from DARPA

Wednesday, February 4th, 2009

Al Fin says that we’ve entered The Age of Sustainable Machines from DARPA:

A new type of autonomous robot will soon be loosed upon the land. A robot that forages, grazing on weeds and shrubbery, on rotten logs — even on dried out roadkill and other carcasses. This is DARPA’s EATR (Energetically Autonomous Tactical Robot), by RTI. It will be fueled by the Cyclone external combustion engine that can run on virtually any type of dry carbonaceous material.

I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords.

Life at Wal-Mart

Wednesday, February 4th, 2009

Charles Platt explores Life at Wal-Mart:

How did I move from being a senior writer at Wired magazine to an entry-level position in a company that is reviled by almost all living journalists?

It started when I read Nickel and Dimed, in which Atlantic contributor Barbara Ehrenreich denounces the exploitation of minimum-wage workers in America. Somehow her book didn’t ring true to me, and I wondered to what extent a preconceived agenda might have biased her reporting. Hence my application for a job at the nearest Wal-Mart.

Getting in was not easy, as more than 100 applicants were competing for fewer than 10 job openings. Still, I made it through a very clever screening quiz, then through a series of three interviews, followed by two days of training. I felt ambivalent about taking advantage of the company’s resources in this way, but I was certainly willing to do my part by working hard at the store, at least for a limited period.

The job was as dull as I expected, but I was stunned to discover how benign the workplace turned out to be. My supervisor was friendly, decent, and treated me as an equal. Wal-Mart allowed a liberal dress code. The company explained precisely what it expected from its employees, and adhered to this policy in every detail. I was unfailingly reminded to take paid rest breaks, and was also encouraged to take fully paid time, whenever I felt like it, to study topics such as job safety and customer relations via a series of well-produced interactive courses on computers in a room at the back of the store. Each successfully completed course added an increment to my hourly wage, a policy which Barbara Ehrenreich somehow forgot to mention in her book.

My standard equipment included a handheld bar-code scanner which revealed the in-store stock and nearest warehouse stock of every item on the shelves, and its profit margin. At the branch where I worked, all the lowest-level employees were allowed this information and were encouraged to make individual decisions about inventory. One of the secrets to Wal-Mart’s success is that it delegates many judgment calls to the sales-floor level, where employees know first-hand what sells, what doesn’t, and (most important) what customers are asking for.

Several of my co-workers had relocated from other areas, where they had worked at other Wal-Marts. They wanted more of the same. Everyone agreed that Wal-Mart was preferable to the local Target, where the hourly pay was lower and workers were said to be treated with less respect (an opinion which I was unable to verify). Most of all, my coworkers wanted to avoid those “mom-and-pop” stores beloved by social commentators where, I was told, employees had to deal with quixotic management policies, while lacking the opportunities for promotion that exist in a large corporation.

Of course, I was not well paid, but Wal-Mart is hardly unique in paying a low hourly rate to entry-level retail staff. The answer to this problem seems elusive to Barbara Ehrenreich, yet is obvious to any teenager who enrolls in a vocational institute. In a labor market, employees are valued partly according to their abilities. To earn a higher hourly rate, you need to acquire some relevant skills.

As for all those Wal-Mart horror stories — when I went home and checked the web sites that attack the company, I found that many of them are subsidized with union money. walmartwatch.com, for instance, is partnered with the Service Employees International Union; wakeupwalmart.com is copyright by United Food and Commercial Workers International Union. Why are unions so obsessed with Wal-Mart? I’m guessing that if the more-than-a-million Wal-Mart employees could be unionized, they would be compelled to contribute at least half a billion dollars per year in union dues.

Platt decided against writing a pro-Wal-Mart book when he realized how futile it would be. No one, after all, wants to promote Adam Shepard’s Scratch Beginnings: Me, $25, and the Search for the American Dream, which describes how people can still make it in the United States if they are willing to live carefully on a budget and work hard:

Somehow that kind of news is never as popular as denunciations of the free market written by professional handwringers such as Barbara Ehrenreich.

Hummer Drivers Get More Tickets

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

Hummer Drivers Get More Tickets. A Lot More.

Quality Planning Corp., which helps insurance companies identify risk, surveyed data from 1.7 million drivers and found the Hummer H2 and H3 are the most frequently ticketed vehicles on the road, surpassing even the 565-horsepower Mercedes CLK 63 AMG. At the other end of the spectrum, the Jaguar XJ was the vehicle least likely to attract the attention of Johnny Law.

The study found those who drive the leviathans get 4.63 times as many tickets as the average driver, something the researchers attribute to the feeling of invincibility that comes from driving a rolling bank vault.

I’d like to see how many tickets those Hummer drivers were racking up in their previous rides. After all, people aren’t randomly assigned quasi-military SUVs; they buy them on purpose.

A Week with Gregory Cochran

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

Michael Blowhard spent last week sharing his interview with Gregory Cochran about his new book The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution, co-written with Henry Harpending:

2Blowhards: We’ve been told for decades that human evolution ground to a halt 40,000ish years ago. Were we misled?

Gregory Cochran: Sure, you were misled. Stephen Jay Gould said it, among others: “There’s been no biological change in humans in 40,000 or 50,000 years. Everything we call culture and civilization we’ve built with the same body and brain.” Which is untrue; brains have shrunk about 10% over the last 30,000 years, and almost certainly changed in other ways as well.

Cochran goes on to slam Gould by citing Paul Krugman, of all people:

I have tried, in preparation for this talk, to read some evolutionary economics, and was particularly curious about what biologists people reference. What I encountered were quite a few references to Stephen Jay Gould, hardly any to other evolutionary theorists.

Now it is not very hard to find out, if you spend a little while reading in evolution, that Gould is the John Kenneth Galbraith of his subject. That is, he is a wonderful writer who is beloved by literary intellectuals and lionized by the media because he does not use algebra or difficult jargon.

Unfortunately, it appears that he avoids these sins not because he has transcended his colleagues but because he does not seem to understand what they have to say; and his own descriptions of what the field is about — not just the answers, but even the questions — are consistently misleading. His impressive literary and historical erudition makes his work seem profound to most readers, but informed readers eventually conclude that there’s no there there.

Ouch.

Lullaby Language

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

Gerald M. Weinberg (Secrets of Consulting, The Psychology of Computer Programmin, Perfect Software: And Other Illusions about Testing) shares a crazy-enough-to-be-true anecdote from one of his consulting engagements:

The customers were enraged with the IT manager because a new system wasn’t ready on time, and the IT manager was enraged with the customers because they hadn’t delivered some essential information as promised, thus causing the entire project to lag its schedule by four months.

It was over 100 degrees outside, but even hotter inside — emotionally. Jeff, the IT manager, would smack the table and say, “You promised that the component pricing data would be in our hands by February first.”

Penny, the catalog manager, would give him a steely-eyed glare and mutter, “We never promised that. Never!”

“Yes, you did!”

“No, we didn’t.”

And then they would loop back to the beginning, raising the temperature a few degrees.

I thought that the problem-solving would go better if I could cool things down, but all I was hearing was “yes-you-did-no-we-didn’t,” back and forth. I decided to attempt to establish some facts that were not a matter of opinion, so I asked for the original requirements document. Both Penny and Jeff seemed a bit stunned by this reference to data, then Penny recovered and said, “Yes, that will prove my point.”

“No, it will prove my point,” Jeff countered. “Good idea, Jerry. Now we’ll see whose fault this is.”

I was a bit surprised at how readily they each found the document. (Lots of my clients seem to lose requirements documents once a project is under way.) Jeff got his open first, and placed his index finger on the following key line:

The Catalog Department should deliver component pricing data by 1 February to the IT Department.

I thought Penny would find some other statement to “prove” her point, but a few moments later, she had her copy open to the same page, upon which the same sentence was highlighted in DayGlo pink. “There.” She said, triumphantly. “There’s my proof. We never promised to deliver that data that early.”

“Yes you did. It’s perfectly clear, right there. Should deliver by 1 February.”

“Exactly,” Penny countered. “It doesn’t say we will, but only that we should. And we did try. But you computer people apparently don’t appreciate the difficulty of getting every single one of those prices signed off by every person involved.”

Weinberg considers should an example of lullaby language, designed to discourage feedback by putting both the speaker’s and the listener’s minds to sleep.

The Decline of Text

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

Marti Hearst suspects that the decline of text will change everything:

As an academic I am of course loathe to think about a world without reading and writing, but with the rapidly increasing ease of recording and distributing video, and its enormous popularity, I think it is only a matter of time before text and the written word become relegated to specialists (such as lawyers) and hobbyists.

Movies have already replaced books as cultural touchstones in the U.S. And most Americans dislike watching movies with subtitles. I assume that given a choice, the majority of Americans would prefer a video-dominant world to a text-dominant one. (Writing as a technologist, I don’t feel I can speak for other cultures.) A recent report by Pew Research included a quote from a media executive who said that emails containing podcasts were opened 20% more often than standard marketing email. And I was intrigued by the use of YouTube questions in the U.S. presidential debates. Most of the citizen-submitted videos that were selected by the moderators consisted simply of people pointing the camera at themselves and speaking their question out loud, with a backdrop consisting of a wall in a room of their home. There were no visual flourishes; the video did not add much beyond what a questioner in a live audience would have conveyed. Video is becoming a mundane way to communicate.

Note that I am not predicting the decline of erudition, in the tradition of Allan Bloom. Nor am I arguing that video will make us stupid, as in Niel Postman’s landmark “Amusing Ourselves to Death.” The situation is different today. In Postman’s time, the dominant form of video communication was television, which allowed only for one-way, broadcast-style interaction. We should expect different consequences when everyone uses video for multi-way communication. What I am espousing is that the forms of communication that will do the cultural “heavy lifting” will be audio and video, rather than text.