Just How Smart Are Ravens?

Tuesday, April 10th, 2007

Just How Smart Are Ravens? Really, really smart:

The first experiment consisted of food hanging from a string below the bottom of the wire cage (pictured right, bigger). To get this treat, the bird had to reach down from a perch and grasp the string in its beak, pull up on the string, place the loop of string on the perch, step on this looped segment of string to prevent it from slipping down, then let go of the string and reach down again and repeat its actions until the morsel of food was within reach.

They found that some adult birds would examine the situation for several minutes and then perform this multistep procedure in as little as 30 seconds without any trial and error — as if they knew exactly what they were doing. Because there was no opportunity for the birds to be confronted with a similar problem in the wild, the simplest explanation is that they were able to imagine the possibilities and to perform the appropriate behaviors. The authors also found that successfully performing this behavior required maturity: immature birds were unable to do it while year-old birds performed a variety of trials before they were able to succeed.

They can’t figure out a pulley though, where pulling down brings the food up. Read the whole article.

72-Hour Party People

Tuesday, April 10th, 2007

72-Hour Party People argues that meth is “not just for the white-trash crowd” anymore:

It comes wrapped in red foil and purple tissue, this intricate figurine molded in the form of a Japanese demon, with clawed feet, a mane of fire and a thick tongue jutting from a bloodthirsty smirk. Transparent, the size of a child’s fist, it looks like a tiny ice carving or a statuette of glass. It is neither. In fact, it is 25 grams (a little less than one ounce) of nearly 100 percent pure crystallized methamphetamine hydrochloride, known on the streets of Asia as “Shabu.” It was almost certainly manufactured in a clandestine laboratory in China, then shipped to the Philippines and on to Hawaii, and finally to Denver. Here it was purchased on the black market for $5,500 — nearly five times the street value of an equivalent amount of cocaine and ten times that of low-grade, powdered crystal meth.

It almost seems glamorous — until you read on and see what a 72-hour party really looks like.

Red River

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

Aside from sharing some of the same stars, Howard Hawks’ Red River bears little resemblance to his later Rio Bravo — which I discussed recently — except that politics were almost an issue even in this earlier film:

There was some concern that John Wayne and Montgomery Clift would not get along since they were diametrically opposed on most political issues, and both were outspoken on their views. According to legend they agreed not to discuss politics and the shooting went smoothly.

An amusing bit of trivia:

Texas Longhorn cattle had been nearly extinct as a breed for about 50 years when this film was made. Only a few dozen animals were available. In the herd scenes most of the cattle are Hereford crosses with the precious Longhorns prominently placed in crucial scenes.

Another bit of trivia:

Filmed in 1946 but held for release for two years, in part due to legal problems with Howard Hughes, who claimed it was similar to his The Outlaw (1943).

Formula for Panic: Crowd-motion findings may prevent stampedes

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

Formula for Panic: Crowd-motion findings may prevent stampedes discusses what physicists found when they studied human crowd dynamics:

In normal conditions, pedestrians tend to spontaneously fall into ordered patterns, such as lanes going in opposite directions, previous research had shown. As crowds get denser, stop-and-go patterns begin to propagate in waves, as is typical for cars on heavily trafficked highways. But in critical situations — as when cars get into gridlock — people can break out in panics that result in random patterns of motion, similar to the turbulence of water in the wake of a boat. Crowd members can get squeezed and asphyxiated or fall and be trampled.

The maverick theory that might explain life

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

Some call “metabolic ecology” the maverick theory that might explain life:

Big animals have relatively slower metabolic rates — this is why a shrew must eat more than its body weight each day to survive, but an elephant eats only one-50th of its bulk per day. The net result is that both species share the same number of heartbeats in a lifetime.

This remarkable phenomenon can be expressed mathematically as a scaling law, which states that the metabolic rate of a species is proportional to its mass raised to the power of three-quarters.

This formula holds true for almost every living organism. From whales to trees, the relationship is the same — but no-one understood why.

Then, in 1997, Geoffrey West, a physicist at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico, working with ecologists Jim Brown and Brian Enquist, published a theory. They argued that the scaling is the result of the fractal-like structure of the network of blood vessels that supply nutrients to the cells in an animal’s body. A similar fractal geometry can be seen in plant veins.

West, Brown and Enquist believe that metabolic rate is the conductor of life’s orchestra, setting the tempo for a host of other processes. Understand it, and we can predict many other things about a creature — how quickly it will grow and how many offspring it will have. They argue that their theory can predict the properties of large-scale ecological networks, such as forests.

Microsoft is Dead

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

Paul Graham notes that Microsoft is Dead, but he can’t help but think about what it could do to come back:

The surprising fact is, brilliant hackers — dangerously brilliant hackers — can be had very cheaply, by the standards of a company as rich as Microsoft. So if they wanted to be a contender again, this is how they could do it:
  1. Buy all the good “Web 2.0″ startups. They could get substantially all of them for less than they’d have to pay for Facebook.
  2. Put them all in a building in Silicon Valley, surrounded by lead shielding to protect them from any contact with Redmond.

I feel safe suggesting this, because they’d never do it. Microsoft’s biggest weakness is that they still don’t realize how much they suck. They still think they can write software in house. Maybe they can, by the standards of the desktop world. But that world ended a few years ago.

I already know what the reaction to this essay will be. Half the readers will say that Microsoft is still an enormously profitable company, and that I should be more careful about drawing conclusions based on what a few people think in our insular little “Web 2.0″ bubble. The other half, the younger half, will complain that this is old news.

Dolphins killer sonar confirmed

Saturday, April 7th, 2007

Dolphins killer sonar confirmed acoustically and visually on videotape:

Marten had noticed before that dolphins close to herring would emit low bangs at the frequency the fish hear best at, and had suggested the bangs were designed to damage the fish’s hearing apparatus. He has now taped a dolphin emitting a sequence of low- frequency “bangs” while chasing a fish.

In a further experiment, Marten showed that low sounds with similar acoustic properties to dolphins’ clicks disorientated anchovies to the point where they swam in circles, remained still or died. “It could also mess up their schooling,” he says.

Meanwhile, Herzing has found evidence of a different strategy. She recorded wild Atlantic spotted dolphins emitting a medium-frequency buzz while searching for prey in sand on the seabed. She says buried eels jumped out of the sand, and either stopped completely or moved sluggishly as if they were stunned, giving the dolphin time to catch them.

Mediterranean diet wards off allergies

Friday, April 6th, 2007

Mediterranean diet wards off allergies:

Dr. Paul Cullinan of Britain’s Royal Brompton Hospital and National Heart and Lung Institute, and colleagues in Greece and Spain, studied 690 children aged 7 to 18.

Children who ate the most fresh fruits and nuts were the least likely to suffer from breathing allergies, and those who ate the most margarine were the most likely to, they found.

Knut Rock Me

Friday, April 6th, 2007

Douglas Kern pokes sarcastic fun at German animal rights “spokeskiller” Frank Albrecht in Knut Rock Me:

Don’t take it from me. Look at the pictures. Read the story. The Germans have precision-engineered Knut to win your heart with a kind of cuteness whose intensity borders on the ruthless. Behold: Knut, playing with a ball. Knut, rasslin’ with his blankie. Knut, waving to his adoring fans. He sleeps every night with a teddy bear. The zookeepers play guitar for him. Show me the man who can reject such sweetness, and I’ll show you German animal rights spokeskiller Frank Albrecht, the Grim Reaper of Lovable Animals. “The zoo must kill the bear,” said Captain Killjoy. “Feeding by hand is not species appropriate, blah blah blah kill the cute bear, blah blah blah goofy animal rights reasons, blah blah blah I hate everything good and pure.” I paraphrase, but only a little. In fairness, Albrecht has clarified his homicidal rant, claiming that he only wanted to see the little fellow croaked when he was tiny and especially helpless. “‘If a polar bear mother rejected the baby, then I believe the zoo must follow the instincts of nature,’ Albrecht said. ‘In the wild, it would have been left to die.’” Thanks for the explanation, Angel of Baby Polar Bear Death. Can’t we just buy some dead baby polar bear offsets instead?

Then he gets to his real point:

Don’t think for a minute that the sheer perversion of killing a sweet cuddly baby polar bear is incidental to the goals of Frank Albrecht and those of his ilk. The sheer perversion is the point. For example: have you ever noticed how the global warming aficionados almost seem to relish the prospect of massive economic rollback and worldwide belt-tightening? Al Gore and his minions aren’t interested in arguments that global warming might make people healthier and richer on balance; neither do they care about proposals to reverse global warming through relatively simple attempts at global weather engineering (e.g., lacing the world’s oceans with iron to stimulate plankton production, thereby changing the atmospheric CO2 balance). To make such arguments is to misunderstand why global warming alarmism is so popular. Its adherents embrace it because they savor the doom that it portends. They want a massive shrinkage of the world’s economies. They want reduced industrial development. They want a world made spiritually pure, liberated from the defilement of modern life. And in the same way, radical greens want little Knut sacrificed on the altar of a fictitious, pristine nature. They want these things because some neglected part of the human heart yearns for sacrifice; for a rejection of worldly goods and concerns in pursuit of higher goals.

Berlin Zoo stock rises 94% on appeal of polar bear cub

Wednesday, April 4th, 2007

This is so obvious in retrospect — Berlin Zoo stock rises 94% on appeal of polar bear cub:

Shares of the operator of the Berlin Zoo climbed 94 percent this week as investors bet that “Knut,” the name of a baby polar bear rejected by his mother, would become a brand name like Paddington Bear or Winnie the Pooh.
[...]
“With a professional brand management, Knut’s brand value would certainly amount to €10 million,” or $13 million, said Björn Sander, a partner at BBDO Consulting in Düsseldorf.

On the other hand…

Shares of Zoologischer Garten Berlin, a nonprofit entity that does not pay dividends to shareholders, added 33 percent to close at €4,660 in Berlin Tuesday. The stock, which rarely trades, has rallied 112 percent this year. Volume is not huge: Only eight shares changed hands Tuesday.

Algorithmic Trading

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007

The latest Dr. Dobb’s looks at Algorithmic Trading — but it doesn’t present a very sophisticated picture of what’s being done out there.

Air taxis: Changing the way we fly

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007

Air taxis: Changing the way we fly looks at how “two aging computer geeks are setting out to reinvent business travel” via DayJet, an airline of tiny Eclipse 500 jets — which only hold five people, two pilots and three passengers — offering short flights in Florida:

Florida is an ideal testing ground for this type of service because of its good flying weather, the density and high income of its population, and the miserable commercial air routes within the state.

This can only work with some amazing Operations Research:

How much a DayJet flight costs will depend on how flexible a traveler’s schedule is. The price of each flight will range from $1 to $3 per mile. A 329-mile, one-hour flight between Boca Raton and Tallahassee, for example, will cost nearly $1,000 each way if the traveler can’t give DayJet more than a 75-minute window to work with.

But if the customer agrees to fly anytime between, say, 7 a.m. and 1 p.m. — a six-hour window — the flight might cost only $329 each way. The wider the window, the more options DayJet has to meet the reservation.

Behind this reservation system is really complicated mathematics. It’s basically a resource-allocation problem. Given a certain number of planes, routes, and existing reservations, what is the optimal way to reconfigure DayJet’s network of air taxis to accommodate each new reservation request?

“We’ll have to evaluate billions of options and come back to you with a yes or no answer in five seconds,” Iacobucci says. Even a supercomputer would have trouble doing that.

Instead of a supercomputer, Iacobucci has two Russian mathematicians, Eugene Taits and Alex Khmelnitsky, stashed in a windowless room down the hall working on an algorithm they believe will solve the problem. At DayJet, everyone calls them the rocket scientists. Their algorithm quickly creates a best guess as to whether DayJet can meet a request and at what cost. As long as it comes up with an acceptable answer, it can offer a quote.

From the time a quote is given until just before the flight plans need to be filed, DayJet’s system can keep trying to come up with an even better answer that lowers the total cost of the air-taxi network. On rare occasions, that might mean three different planes taking three passengers to the same place, if that’s more efficient for the overall network.

To test this algorithm, Iacobucci is working with some operations research scientists at Georgia Tech who do have access to a supercomputer. It takes them 24 hours to come up with the same answers DayJet’s optimization algorithm comes up with in a few seconds.

In another office farther down the hall (these have windows), Iacobucci keeps his ant farmers. They are complexity scientists, originally from the Santa Fe Institute, who have created a massive simulation of the entire U.S. transportation system. They’ve mapped travel patterns into 10-square-mile blocks, complete with income levels, demographics, historical driving patterns, airport drive times, and airline schedules and fares.

“It’s like Sim City on steroids,” Iacobucci says. After calibrating the simulation to match current travel behavior, the ant farmers introduce DayJet service in different cities and see how the simulated people react. That’s how the DayPorts are selected.

Why to Not Not Start a Startup

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007

Paul Graham explains Why to Not Not Start a Startup:

We’ve now been doing Y Combinator long enough to have some data about success rates. Our first batch, in the summer of 2005, had eight startups in it. Of those eight, it now looks as if at least four succeeded. Three have been acquired: Reddit was a merger of two, Reddit and Infogami, and a third was acquired that we can’t talk about yet. Another from that batch was Loopt, which is doing so well they could probably be acquired in about ten minutes if they wanted to.

So about half the founders from that first summer, less than two years ago, are now rich, at least by their standards. (One thing you learn when you get rich is that there are many degrees of it.)

I’m not ready to predict our success rate will stay as high as 50%. That first batch could have been an anomaly. But we should be able to do better than the oft-quoted (and probably made up) standard figure of 10%. I’d feel safe aiming at 25%.

Even the founders who fail don’t seem to have such a bad time. Of those first eight startups, three are now probably dead. In two cases the founders just went on to do other things at the end of the summer. I don’t think they were traumatized by the experience. The closest to a traumatic failure was Kiko, whose founders kept working on their startup for a whole year before being squashed by Google Calendar. But they ended up happy. They sold their software on eBay for a quarter of a million dollars. After they paid back their angel investors, they had about a year’s salary each. [1] Then they immediately went on to start a new and much more exciting startup, Justin.TV.

A History of Violence

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007

Steven Pinker opens A History of Violence with an evocative example of how things have changed over the years:

In sixteenth-century Paris, a popular form of entertainment was cat-burning, in which a cat was hoisted in a sling on a stage and slowly lowered into a fire. According to historian Norman Davies, “[T]he spectators, including kings and queens, shrieked with laughter as the animals, howling with pain, were singed, roasted, and finally carbonized.” Today, such sadism would be unthinkable in most of the world. This change in sensibilities is just one example of perhaps the most important and most underappreciated trend in the human saga: Violence has been in decline over long stretches of history, and today we are probably living in the most peaceful moment of our species’ time on earth.

(Emphasis mine.) For example:

At the widest-angle view, one can see a whopping difference across the millennia that separate us from our pre-state ancestors. Contra leftist anthropologists who celebrate the noble savage, quantitative body-counts — such as the proportion of prehistoric skeletons with axemarks and embedded arrowheads or the proportion of men in a contemporary foraging tribe who die at the hands of other men — suggest that pre-state societies were far more violent than our own. It is true that raids and battles killed a tiny percentage of the numbers that die in modern warfare. But, in tribal violence, the clashes are more frequent, the percentage of men in the population who fight is greater, and the rates of death per battle are higher. According to anthropologists like Lawrence Keeley, Stephen LeBlanc, Phillip Walker, and Bruce Knauft, these factors combine to yield population-wide rates of death in tribal warfare that dwarf those of modern times. If the wars of the twentieth century had killed the same proportion of the population that die in the wars of a typical tribal society, there would have been two billion deaths, not 100 million.

He notes two important books on violence:

Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan (1651). “And the life of man, solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.” This pithy description of life in a state of nature is just one example of the lively prose in this seventeenth-century masterpiece. Hobbes’s analysis of the roots and varieties of violence is uncannily modern, and anticipated many insights from game theory and evolutionary psychology. He also was the first cognitive scientist, outlining a computational theory of memory, imagination, and reasoning.

Martin Daly and Margo Wilson, Homicide (1988). This is the book that sold me on evolutionary psychology. Daly and Wilson use homicide statistics as an assay for human conflict, together with vivid accounts from history, journalism, and anthropology. They select each of the pairings of killer and victim — fratricide, filicide, parricide, infanticide, uxoricide, stepparent-stepchild, acquaintances, feuds & duels, amok killers, and so on — and test predictions from evolutionary theory on their rates and patterns. The book is endlessly insightful and beautifully written.

The Upside of Color Blindness

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2007

Discover magazine notes The Upside of Color Blindness:

Observations of capuchins foraging for surface-dwelling insects showed that color-blind capuchins made nearly 20 insect-capture attempts per hour, compared with only about 16 for those with normal color vision.

One possible explanation for the color-blind advantage is that a reduction in color signals makes the differences in texture and brightness more apparent, so it’s easier to see past color camouflage, says Melin.

The image is of earth, with red-green color-blindness and without.