Ron Paul is blowing up real good

Sunday, June 3rd, 2007

Michael Scherer of Salon notes that libertarian Ron Paul is blowing up real good:

The rambunctious GOP candidate wants to drag the U.S. out of Iraq, can the war on drugs, and overturn the Patriot Act. No wonder Republican power brokers want to boot him off the stage.

He explains “why Paul is running”:

He’s the only Republican candidate who wants to end U.S. involvement in Iraq and withdraw the U.S. Navy from the waters off the Iranian coast. He wants America to pull out of the United Nations, NATO, the International Criminal Court, and most international trade agreements. He wants to abolish FEMA, end the federal war on drugs, get rid of the Department of Homeland Security, send the U.S. military to guard the Mexican border, stop federal prosecutions of obscenity, eliminate the IRS, end most foreign aid, overturn the Patriot Act, phase out Social Security, revoke public services for illegal immigrants, repeal No Child Left Behind, and reestablish gold and silver as legal tender.

Of course, it’s not like he could do much of that, even if elected president…

Star Wars: The Legacy Revealed

Saturday, June 2nd, 2007

Since I had just watched The History Channel’s Star Wars: The Legacy Revealed — which revealed very little — and The Searchers — which was one of Lucas’s influences — I decided to read up a bit on the subject.

SparkNotes only mentions two major influences — neither new to me: Akira Kurosawa’s samurai movies and John Ford’s The Searchers.

Samurai movies are known in Japan as period dramas, or jidaigeki, and that is where Lucas got the word Jedi.

Lucas also lifted a number of characters and scenes from Kurosawa movies:

Lucas has said in the past that the inspiration for the characters of C-3PO, R2-D2, Han Solo, and Princess Leia could be found in Kurosawa’s The Hidden Fortress, in which two bumbling friends help a roguish hero rescue a brave princess from captivity. More specific still, Lucas includes a direct homage to Kurosawa in the scene in which Ben defends Luke in the Mos Eisley cantina. The shot of the ruffian’s arm on the floor, severed by Ben’s blade, is a reference to a similarly severed arm, filmed in the same way, in Kurosawa’s Yojimbo.

The other major influence mentioned is The Searchers:

The scene in which Luke approaches the burned-out farm and finds his aunt and uncle murdered is shot in such a way that it echoes a similar scene in Ford’s film, in which the young hero also returns to his family’s farm to find the buildings burned and his aunt and uncle murdered. Like Luke, the hero of The Searchers is drawn into a relationship with a relentless father figure, bent on evil. And like Darth Vader, the father figure in The Searchers, played unforgettably by John Wayne, experiences a last-second moral regeneration. Like the Star Wars trilogy, The Searchers is essentially a quest story, one in which the son must ultimately redeem the father, and it also approaches the grandeur of myth.

The Wookieepedia lists some influences I was not aware of (or less aware of):

The climactic scene in which the Death Star is assaulted was modeled after the 1950s movie The Dam Busters, in which RAF Lancaster bombers fly along heavily defended reservoirs and aim “bouncing bombs” at German manmade dams in a bid to cripple the heavy industry of the Ruhr. Some of the dialogue in The Dam Busters is repeated in the Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope climax and in fact the cinematographer for Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope, Gilbert Taylor, also filmed the Special Effects sequences in The Dam Busters.

Scenes from the Death Star assault are also reminiscent of the film Battle of Britain, particularly in showing the face of the pilot in the cockpit, and the radio dialogue between teams named after colors. Another inspiration comes from Battle of Britain‘s long combat scene near the end of the movie which is presented without dialogue or sound effects, but with a classical movie background.
[...]
Lucas has made mention of the film 633 Squadron directed by Walter Grauman when citing movies that inspired themes or elements in Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope. The “trench run” in A New Hope wherein Luke flies his X-wing through a “trench” on the Death Star and destroys the ship was inspired, at least in small part, by the finale of 633 Squadron, which involves several Royal Air Force planes flying at low level up a fjord against heavy, ground-based anti-aircraft fire, to attack a factory located at the base of a cliff at the canyon’s end.

It also mentions one less pleasant influence:

The scene where Princess Leia gives Han and Luke medals is very reminiscent of a long scene in Leni Riefenstahl’s 1934 film Triumph of the Will. Both scenes have large and enthusiastic crowds seated in a shallow amphitheatre bounded by columns, with a low dais where the leader stands.

Of course, Star Wars shares many elements with Frank Herbert’s Dune too.

The Searchers

Friday, June 1st, 2007

John Wayne’s 100th birthday was last Saturday, but I only got around to watching The Searchers almost a week later.

It’s arguably the greatest movie ever made — but I am not one of the people making that argument. Roger Ebert opens his review with elements that make the movie great:

John Ford’s ”The Searchers” contains scenes of magnificence, and one of John Wayne’s best performances. There are shots that are astonishingly beautiful. A cover story in New York magazine called it the most influential movie in American history.

But the movie is not unalloyed greatness; it’s quite uneven:

”The Searchers” indeed seems to be two films. The Ethan Edwards story is stark and lonely, a portrait of obsession, and in it we can see Schrader’s inspiration for Travis Bickle of ”Taxi Driver;” the Comanche chief named Scar (Henry Brandon) is paralleled by Harvey Keitel’s pimp named Sport, whose Western hat and long hair cause Travis to call him ”chief.” Ethan doesn’t like Indians, and says so plainly. When he reveals his intention to kill Debbie, Martin says ”She’s alive and she’s gonna stay alive!” and Ethan growls: ”Livin’ with Comanches ain’t being alive.” He slaughters buffalo in a shooting frenzy, saying, ”At least they won’t feed any Comanche this winter.” The film within this film involves the silly romantic subplot and characters hauled in for comic relief, including the Swedish neighbor Lars Jorgensen (John Qualen), who uses a vaudeville accent, and Mose Harper (Hank Worden), a half-wit treated like a mascot. There are even musical interludes. This second strand is without interest, and those who value ”The Searchers” filter it out, patiently waiting for a return to the main story line.

A few elements you’re unlikely to notice in a casual viewing:

  • A significant portion of the film’s labyrinthine plot is revealed on a throwaway prop that most casual viewers rarely notice. Just before the Indian raid on the Edwards homestead, the tombstone that Debbie hides next to reveals the source of Ethan’s glaring hatred for Native Americans. The marker reads: “Here lies Mary Jane Edwards killed by Commanches May 12, 1852. A good wife and mother in her 41st year.” Sixteen years earlier, Ethan’s own mother was massacred by Comanches.
  • The medal Ethan Edwards gives to Debbie is not a Confederate or Union Army medal. It is a French medal awarded to mercenary soldiers who fought between 1865 and 1867 for the Emperor Maximilian of Mexico. This medal implies Ethan served in the French Mexican Expedition during his mysterious three year absence and also explains his fluency in Spanish.
  • According to John Wayne in a 1974 interview, John Ford hinted throughout the movie that Ethan had had an affair with his brother’s wife, and was possibly the father of Lucy and Debbie. This meant Ethan’s thirst for vengeance stemmed not from the murder of his brother, but of the woman Ethan had loved. This was so subtle that many viewers at the time missed it altogether.

Wikipedia notes the real-life basis for the story:

The story of the original novel version of The Searchers is often said to have been inspired by the 1836 kidnapping of nine-year-old Cynthia Ann Parker by Comanche warriors who raided her family’s home at Fort Parker. She spent twenty-five years with the Comanche, married a war chief, and had three children, only to be “rescued” against her will by the Texas Rangers. James W. Parker, Uncle of Cynthia Ann, spent much of his life and fortune in what became an obsession of searching for her. This certainly matches the obsession of Ethan in the movie in searching for his niece, as James Parker did Cynthia.

Celebrity polar bear Knut growing into beast

Friday, June 1st, 2007

We knew it had to happen. Celebrity polar bear Knut growing into beast:

Knut, Berlin Zoo’s celebrity polar bear cub, is growing from a cuddly ball of fur into a shaggy, powerful predator who could soon pose a serious threat to his devoted human keeper who has nursed him from birth.

The cub, which still draws some 5,000 fans every day, turns six months on Tuesday and his 28 kg (62 pounds) are starting to show. His snout is longer, his torso chunkier and teeth sharper.

Thomas Doerflein, who for months slept in Knut’s enclosure to feed him milk and porridge through the night, still rolls on the ground with the cub in his twice daily shows and lets him bite his fingers.

But he has taken to pulling his long sleeves over his hands to protect them and winces when the cub bites him on the bottom. Captivated admirers watch Doerflein duck and shoulder away Knut when he gets boisterous.

“He’s just playing and it doesn’t hurt, it just pinches a bit. It only hurts when he gets angry,” the bearded Doerflein, who already has a few bruises, told Reuters.

In addition to porridge, the young star now tucks into fish, meat and cat food and is putting on around 200 grams a day.

Last week, he learned how to swim and Doerflein takes Knut for a walk round the Zoo every morning to build up his muscles. His coat is no longer white and fluffy, but yellow and shaggy.

“He is getting bigger and is gruffer than he used to be and is learning his role as a loner,” said zoo vet Andre Schuele, who estimates that Knut will not be fully grown for another four years or so.
[...]
Doerflein thinks he will be able to play with Knut until he is about a year-old, by which time the cub will be 60-80 kg, compared to about 500 kg when he is fully grown.

The keepers say the cub regards Doerflein as his mother and is therefore unlikely to attack him, but some experts fear he could get dangerous sooner and point to worrying precedents.

In the 1920s, a Norwegian explorer had to put down “Marie,” a polar bear cub he had reared, after she attacked him. Historians put the cub’s age at only four months, although some experts suspect she might have been older.

Inches Too Tall for Tunnel, Rig Plies It Anyway

Friday, June 1st, 2007


“Welcome to Manhattan” indeed. From Inches Too Tall for Tunnel, Rig Plies It Anyway:

It was just six inches.

That was what made the difference at 4:40 a.m. yesterday as Gilberto Cantu, a truck driver from Texas, approached the New Jersey entrance of the Lincoln Tunnel in his big rig, loaded with bathtubs, toilets and plumbing fixtures. The truck was 13 feet 6 inches high. The tunnel has a height limit of 13 feet. Six inches can make a big difference.

Mr. Cantu drove the entire 1.5 miles of the tunnel from Weehawken, N.J., to Manhattan, tearing his way under the Hudson River in the tunnel’s center tube and peeling back the roof of his tractor-trailer as if it were a tin can. No one was injured, but an undetermined number of decorative tunnel ceiling tiles were ripped off.

Mr. Cantu drove the entire 1.5 miles of the tunnel — and he ignored all the warnings before entering the tunnel:

It was unclear why Mr. Cantu did not heed warnings from flashing signs and a loudspeaker in New Jersey, said Steve Coleman, a spokesman for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which operates the tunnel. “There were enough bells and whistles going off that this should not have happened,” Mr. Coleman said. “He told the officers he didn’t know where he was going.”

Mr. Coleman said that accidents of this kind were almost always averted. When a too-tall vehicle enters the toll plaza, an electronic sensor is tripped, several stoplights are activated and police officers at the plaza use a loudspeaker to order the driver to stop.

Mr. Coleman said trucks were turned back for exceeding the height limit about once a week. And on the rare occasions when trucks have entered and scraped the tunnel’s ceiling, their drivers have invariably stopped, he said, and the police have employed a height-reducing technique of letting air out of the trucks’ tires so they could be backed out.

Pumping Cash, Not Oil

Friday, June 1st, 2007

I’m always surprised — call me naive — when a business journalist doesn’t “get” Finance 101. From Pumping Cash, Not Oil:

It’s Big Oil’s new formula for making money. Last year, Exxon pumped out $49 billion in operating cash flow on sales of $365 billion. It’s the world’s most profitable company, but Exxon is plowing a smaller percentage of its spare cash back into the business. Although capital expenditures have risen from $11 billion at the start of the decade to nearly $20 billion, that spending amounts to roughly 40% of cash flow, down from 50% in 2000. Meanwhile, overall production has barely budged since its megamerger in 1999.

Instead, Exxon is bingeing on buybacks to help boost profits, which also benefit from higher commodity prices. Repurchases have been part of Exxon’s strategy for decades, but they’ve exploded in recent years. Exxon spent 60%, or $29 billion, of its cash flow on repurchases in 2006, more than any other company in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index and a tenfold increase since 2000. The company has retired 16% of shares in the past five years, adding an estimated 88 cents to earnings of $6.68 per share. With Exxon’s stock handily beating the market and peers with a 15% annual return over the past decade, others in the oil patch are catching on to the strategy. “They don’t need to grow production in order to generate shareholder returns,” says energy consultant Richard Gordon.

A profitable company can do one of two things with the money it earns: hold on to the money, or give it back to investors.

Theoretically, the company should hold on to the money only when it can reinvest it effectively. Young, growing companies in young, growing industries often can; old, mature companies in old, mature industries often can’t.

Management often likes having more money to play with — empire-building is fun — so it tends to find excuses not to give money back to investors. That’s what the oil execs did back in the 1970s; they found all kinds of bad projects to diversify into.

When a company does give money back though, it has a few options. Historically, it gave shareholders a cash dividend — pretty straightforward. Another option though is to buy back shares — which isn’t nearly as straightforward and still seems to confuse business journalists and unsophisticated investors.

When a firm gives out a dividend, all of its shareholders get the same amount of cash per share. When a firm buys back some of its shares though, some of its shareholders get a lot of cash in return for their shares, while the rest of the shareholders, the ones who didn’t sell their shares back to the company, now own a little bit more of the company.

Amazingly, it all works out.

Assume a firm has one million outstanding shares priced at $1, and the firm has $200k in cash it doesn’t need. This million-dollar company is actually an $800k-company, plus $200k in cash.

If it gives back all that cash to its investors, then each investor gets $0.20 per share — and the share price drops from $1 to $0.80.

If instead it buys back 200k shares, then some of its investors get $1 per share in return for their shares, and others hold on to their shares, which are now worth $1, even though the $200k in cash has been distributed — because their shares are now “bigger” than before. There are only 800k outstanding shares now, so each share is worth a bigger chunk of the company.

Not only does it all amazingly work out, but the investors who wanted cash got cash, and those who wanted to avoid a taxable event got to hold on to their shares as they grew in value.

Since “one share” no longer means what it used to mean, any per-share ratio from before the buy-back can’t sensibly be compared to one from after the buy-back, and business journalists should not pretend that the company has dramatically increased its earnings just because each share now has greater earnings.

Oil: Squeezing Out Every Drop

Friday, June 1st, 2007

Oil: Squeezing Out Every Drop explains how Shell is vastly increasing the amount of oil it can recover from tricky oil fields:

The project has presented plenty of challenges for Shell over the years. The oil giant discovered the field, called Champion West, back in 1975. With half a billion barrels of oil and gas, for years it was the largest undeveloped find for Brunei Shell Petroleum (BSP), the oil giant’s 50-50 joint venture with the Brunei government. Champion West’s rich deposits went untapped for nearly three decades because they’re scattered in hundreds of small pockets more than two miles beneath the seabed, making them too expensive to drill. “This is one of the most complex geological structures in the world,” says Brigitte Dale-Pine, Shell’s project leader for Champion West.

After several failed attempts to open the field, Shell engineers in 2005 finally came up with an approach that the company says is the first of its kind. BSP is drilling “snake wells” that bore horizontally for miles below the seabed, twisting and turning with precision to hit computer-modeled targets just a few feet wide. BSP is now able to connect as many as a half-dozen pockets of oil with each of these snake wells. Then BSP installs so-called smart equipment—arrays of valves and sensors—in the wells, letting the company adjust the flow of oil from each reservoir remotely from computers onshore. If too much gas or water creeps into a section, engineers can close it down but keep the rest of the well pumping oil.

Today, Champion West is a model field for Shell and has become a prototype for its operations worldwide. Shell plans to introduce similar technology at about 20 sites around the world, including Oman, the North Sea, and Nigeria.

With the smart technology, the company expects to get double the oil that it would have recovered from Champion West had it used conventional methods. Each snake well does the work of three standard wells, which helps cut development costs by 15% or more. BSP is investing $1.5 billion to drill 20 wells that the company hopes will eventually produce the equivalent of more than 300 million barrels of oil. By running the wells remotely, BSP can reduce operating costs by some 20% and also limit the risks associated with keeping people on the platform offshore. “The technology that Shell is developing is critical for maximizing the value of their assets,” says Judson L. Jacobs, a technology specialist at Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

The Sack of Washington

Friday, June 1st, 2007

The Sack of Washington is an excerpt from Cullen Murphy’s Are We Rome? The Fall of an Empire and the Fate of America in which he argues that increasing privitization is akin to ancient Rome’s increasing corruption. I don’t agree with him, but he does share some interesting history:

A little more than 50 years ago, the Oxford historian Geoffrey de Ste. Croix, a radical thinker and formidable classicist, decided to take a close look at the change in connotation over five centuries of the Latin word suffragium, which originally meant “voting tablet” or “ballot.” That change, he concluded, illustrated something fundamental about Roman society and its “inner political evolution.”

The original meaning went back to the days of the Roman Republic, which had possessed modest elements of democracy. The citizens of Rome, by means of the suffragium, could exercise their influence in electing people to certain offices. In practice, the great men of Rome controlled large blocs of votes, corresponding to their patronage networks. Over time Rome’s republican forms of government calcified into empty ritual or withered away entirely. Suffragium meaning “ballot” no longer served any real political function. But the web of patrons and clients was still the Roman system’s substructure, and in this context suffragium came to mean the pressure that could be exerted on one’s behalf by a powerful man, whether to obtain a job or to influence a court case or to secure a contract. To ask a patron for this form of intervention and to exert suffragium on behalf of a client would have been a routine social interaction.

Now stir large amounts of money into this system. It is not a great conceptual distance, Ste. Croix observes, to move from the idea of exercising suffragium because of an age-old sense of reciprocal duty to that of exercising it because doing so could be lucrative. And this, indeed, is where the future lies, the idea of quid pro quo eventually becoming so accepted and ingrained that emperors stop trying to halt the practice and instead seek to contain it by codifying it. Thus, in the fourth century, decrees are promulgated to ensure that the person seeking the quid actually delivers the quo. Before long, suffragium has changed its meaning once again. Now it refers not to the influence brought to bear but to the money being paid for it: “a gift, payment or bribe.” By empire’s end, all public transactions require the payment of money, and the pursuit of money and personal advancement has become the purpose of all public jobs.

Looking back at the change, from ballot box to cash box, Ste. Croix composes this epitaph: “Here, in miniature, is the political history of Rome.”

Lost documents shed light on Black Death

Friday, June 1st, 2007

Lost documents shed light on Black Death — which may not have been spread by fleas:

For centuries, rats and fleas have been fingered as the culprits responsible for the Black Death, the medieval plague that killed as many as two thirds of Europe’s population.

But historians studying 14th-century court records from Dorset believe they may have uncovered evidence that exonerates them. The parchment records, contained in a recently-discovered archive, reveal that an estimated 50 per cent of the 2,000 people living in Gillingham died within four months of the Black Death reaching the town in October 1348.

The deaths are recorded in land transfers lodged with the manorial court which – unusually for the period – sat every three weeks, giving a clear picture of who had died and when. The records show that 190 of the 300 tenants holding land in the town died during the winter of 1348-49, at a time when a form of bubonic plague spread by rat fleas would have been dormant.

Experts now believe that the Black Death is more likely to have been a viral infection, similar to haemorrhagic fever or ebola, that spread from person to person.

Of course, this may have been at the tail end of the Medieval Warm Period and before the Little Ice Age — or it simply may have been a warm winter — so it is not clear that fleas would have been dormant.