Cheaper oil appears certain this year

Tuesday, January 23rd, 2007

Cheaper oil appears certain this year:

After a year of oil prices so high that analysts warned they might hit $100 a barrel soon, prices are falling, financial speculators are running for the exits and analysts are pondering whether oil could fall below $30 a barrel by spring.

Oil cost $41 a barrel on average in July 2004, when its price began its long climb. It’s not farfetched to think that it might fall back to that soon. Back then, gasoline sold nationally for about $1.90 a gallon.

There’s no guarantee that it’ll happen again, but several factors point to at least a few months of lower oil and gasoline prices:

  • Oil production globally is no longer drum-tight. A warm winter eased demand and a mild hurricane season allowed damaged production to come back on line. That weakens sellers.

  • Oil producers are in some disarray now that it’s a buyer’s market. A few vocal OPEC members want to cut production to shore up slumping prices, but OPEC’s most important producer, Saudi Arabia, has nixed that for now. Saudi Arabia now boasts 3 million barrels per day of spare production capacity, after two years when global oil supplies barely could match demand.

Some analysts suggest privately that Saudi opposition to OPEC cuts is based more on politics than business. The Saudis, they say, want to starve rival Iran of needed oil revenues because Saudi rulers are Sunni Muslims and increasingly worried about Iran’s backing of fellow Shiite Muslims who rule Iraq.

It’s almost as if oil prices follow a random walk…

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Strange DIY Film Hits Sundance

Tuesday, January 23rd, 2007

Watch the trailer for We Are the Strange. I don’t know what to make of it, but I take it as a good sign that someone is out there experimenting with the medium. From Strange DIY Film Hits Sundance:

The handmade quality makes We Are the Strange like no other animation you’ve seen. Strange’s influences include Japanese Kabuki theater, Lajos Egri’s book The Art of Dramatic Writing and Tecmo’s early Ninja Gaiden games.

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In Raw World of Sex Movies, High Definition Could Be a View Too Real

Tuesday, January 23rd, 2007

Matt Richtel of the New York Times notes that in the raw world of sex movies, High Definition could be a view too real:

“The biggest problem is razor burn,” said Stormy Daniels, an actress, writer and director.

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Battery Breakthrough?

Tuesday, January 23rd, 2007

Has secretive startup EEStor made a Battery Breakthrough?:

The company boldly claims that its system, a kind of battery-ultracapacitor hybrid based on barium-titanate powders, will dramatically outperform the best lithium-ion batteries on the market in terms of energy density, price, charge time, and safety. Pound for pound, it will also pack 10 times the punch of lead-acid batteries at half the cost and without the need for toxic materials or chemicals, according to the company.

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The ivory trade

Monday, January 22nd, 2007

The ivory trade explains “what makes America’s colleges such clever investors”:

The biggest endowments are big investors: between them, Harvard and Yale have some $50 billion, around one-seventh of the total. They tend to do better than their smaller peers and pretty much everyone else. Indeed, these eggheads even beat the quants. Endowments larger than $1 billion returned 15.2% on average last year, more than the main hedge-fund index (see chart). The best-performing endowment in 2005-06, which belonged to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, gained a handsome 23%. That put it a whisker ahead of Yale’s (22.9%), run for more than 20 years by David Swensen.

Endowment managers would no doubt like to claim this is all down to skill. But they do enjoy certain advantages over their rivals. In principle, their investment horizon lasts not weeks, months or years, but forever. Their capital is extremely patient. Each endowment has a single client — itself — that needs to extract only a small sum annually to keep the wheels of scholarship turning. Therefore, unlike pension funds, they do not have to fret about matching assets with liabilities. This means endowments can tolerate lots of volatility, which in turn allows them to make, and stick to, contrarian bets. They have been “incredibly gutsy” in going against the grain, says Will Wechsler of Greenwich Associates, a financial-services consultancy. Perhaps they can stay solvent longer than the market can stay irrational.

A second advantage is the university environment. “Whereas pension trustees are naturally risk-averse, universities are all about innovating, financially as well as intellectually,” says James Walsh, who runs Cornell’s $5 billion endowment. Investment constraints are kept to a minimum. Alumni with Wall Street experience are encouraged not only to donate money but also to sit on investment committees. Many are happy to oblige. “This gives us access to minds we couldn’t otherwise afford,” says Mr Walsh. The brainpower on tap at the university itself is not always as useful. According to one former Harvard official, its endowment fund has done so well because it has avoided taking advice from the economics faculty.

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Bats In Flight Reveal Unexpected Aerodynamics

Monday, January 22nd, 2007

Bats In Flight Reveal Unexpected Aerodynamics to researchers Kenneth Breuer and Sharon Swartz at Brown University:

Bat wings are highly articulated, with more than two dozen independent joints and a thin flexible membrane covering them. The videos, shot from four angles simultaneously and then synchronized, show how the complex movements of each wing stroke relate to overall flight speed, body position and angle of attack. Reflective markers placed on joints, along bones and at key points on the wing membrane allowed the researchers to accurately track the position and shape of bones throughout the wing stroke.

Birds and insects can fold and rotate their wings during flight, but bats have many more options. Their flexible skin can catch the air and generate lift or reduce drag in many different ways. During straightforward flight, the wing is mostly extended for the down stroke, but the wing surface curves much more than a bird’s does — giving bats greater lift for less energy. During the up stroke, the bats fold the wings much closer to their bodies than other flying animals, potentially reducing the drag they experience. The wing’s extraordinary flexibility also allows the animals to make 180-degree turns in a distance of less than half a wingspan.

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Walking like a Bomber

Monday, January 22nd, 2007

A new technology may allow guards to spot someone with a concealed bomb — or someone simply walking like a bomber:

A new radar-imaging technology expected to reach market later this year could solve the problem by directing low-power radar beams at people–who can be 50 yards or more away — and analyzing reflected radar returns to reveal concealed objects. And early research indicates that this method could one day be augmented with video-analysis software that spots bombers by discerning subtle differences in gait that occur when people carry heavy objects.
[...]
The first generation of the CounterBomber works by continuously steering a low-power radar beam toward the moving subject. The radar then repeatedly “interrogates” the subject. “The characteristics of the reflected radar beam are affected by weapons hidden beneath the clothing,” Burns says. Signal processing software can detect those weapons or bombs without creating an under-the-clothes image that could violate the person’s privacy, he says.

And this technology is helped by novel technology that tracks the subject — thereby enabling the radar to be continuously aimed at the moving person. Software developed by Rama Chellappa, a professor in the department of electrical and computer engineering and a member of the University of Maryland’s Institute for Advanced Computer Studies, uses a form of “gait recognition” to do this.

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Endurance sports may harm the heart

Monday, January 22nd, 2007

Art De Vany has been saying this for some time now. Endurance sports may harm the heart:

Ventricular arrhythmia (VA), a disturbance that occurs in the ventricles or lower chambers of the heart, is a condition that can cause sudden death in top athletes who have had no previous symptoms of the disorder.

After studying Dutch and Belgian endurance athletes with VA and other healthy sportspeople and volunteers, the researchers found that in the athletes with the problem the right ventricle (RV) of the heart was not functioning normally.

They believe VA, which could have many underlying causes, may be triggered by intense exercise or that endurance sports could promote the arrhythmia along with genetic or environmental factors.

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Lena Blackburne Baseball Rubbing Mud

Sunday, January 21st, 2007

Every baseball used in the American League, the National League, and most minor leagues is rubbed with Lena Blackburne Baseball Rubbing Mud before play:

It all began in 1938 when an umpire complained to Lena Blackburne, a third base coach for the old Philadelphia Athletics, about the sorry condition of the baseballs used by the American League. Back then a ball was prepped simply with mud made of water and dirt from the playing field. The result? The ball’s cover was too soft, leaving it open for tampering. Something was needed to take off the shine but not soften the cover.

Blackburne took on the challenge. Next time he returned to his home in Burlington County, he checked out the mud along tributaries of the Delaware River until he found some muck (the whereabouts of the mud hole is still a dark secret) with a texture he felt would do the job. Taking a batch to the Athletics’ field house, he rubbed some balls with the stuff. It worked like a charm! What’s more, it had no odor and didn’t turn the balls black. The umpires were happy, and Lena Blackburne was in the mud supply business.

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Soccer Ball

Sunday, January 21st, 2007

I did not realize that the iconic soccer ball was designed to show up on black-and-white televisions:

Most modern balls are stitched from 32 panels of waterproofed leather or plastic: 12 regular pentagons and 20 regular hexagons. The 32-panel configuration is similar to the polyhedron known as the truncated icosahedron, except that it is more spherical, because the faces bulge due to the pressure of the air inside. The first 32-panel ball was marketed by Select in the 1950s in Denmark. This configuration became common throughout Continental Europe in the 1960s, and was publicised worldwide by the Adidas Telstar, the official ball of the 1970 World Cup.

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Another Reconstruction

Sunday, January 21st, 2007

Victor Davis Hanson says our efforts in Iraq are Another Reconstruction, like the one after the Civil War:

We are in our fourth year of Reconstruction, and it is eerily similar to the Union efforts from 1865 to 1877. Militias like the Kuklux Klan proliferated. Marshal Law was declared in Tennessee. Judges were shot. Northern troops were too few and far between to protect Republican and black reformers. The public was exasperated that armies like Sherman’s that by late 1864 and 1865 had once sliced through the Confederacy in mere months could not even keep order in a conquered South, despite five military districts initially run by tough veteran Union generals.

Assassinations, kidnappings, and terrorism were committed against supposed “collaborators” such as Republican politicians and black elected officials. Reconstruction administrators were often themselves thoroughly corrupt. And after the scandalous deal of 1876, over a century later books are still being written, as they are of Vietnam and will be of Iraq, about how Reconstruction would have finally worked — despite its legion of terrible mistakes — had only a weary public not given up on it.

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Creating Ethanol from Trash

Sunday, January 21st, 2007

Creating Ethanol from Trash may become economically viable via arcs of plasma:

The technology, developed originally by researchers at MIT and at Batelle Pacific Northwest National Labs (PNNL), in Richland, WA, doesn’t incinerate refuse, so it doesn’t produce the pollutants that have historically plagued efforts to convert waste into energy. Instead, the technology vaporizes organic materials to produce hydrogen and carbon monoxide, a mixture called synthesis gas, or syngas, that can be used to synthesize a wide variety of fuels and chemicals. The technology has been further developed and commercialized by a spinoff called Integrated Environmental Technologies (IET), also based in Richland, WA. In addition to processing municipal waste, the technology can be used to create ethanol out of agricultural biomass waste, providing a potentially less expensive way to make ethanol than current corn-based plants.

The new system makes syngas in two stages. In the first, waste is heated in a 1,200 ?C chamber into which a small amount of oxygen is added–just enough to partially oxidize carbon and free hydrogen. In this stage, not all of the organic material is converted: some becomes a charcoal-like material. This char is then gasified when researchers pass it through arcs of plasma, using technology developed in the 1990s at MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center. The remaining inorganic materials, including toxic substances, are oxidized and incorporated into a pool of molten glass, made using PNNL technology. The molten glass hardens into a material that can be used for building roads or discarded as a safe material in landfills.

The next step is a catalyst-based process for converting syngas into equal parts ethanol and methanol. Ethanol is now widely used as a fuel additive, and it can also be used as a substitute for gasoline in some vehicles. Methanol is important for producing biodiesel and is currently made from methane in natural gas.

There is enough municipal and industrial waste produced in the United States for the system to replace as much as a quarter of the gasoline used in this country, says Daniel Cohn, a cofounder of IET and a senior research scientist at the Plasma Science and Fusion Center.

According to Jeff Surma, another cofounder and the CEO and president of IET, the multistage system makes it possible to produce fuels from waste at competitive costs. The economics look even better when including the fact that cities and manufacturers will pay to have waste removed, he says. This makes possible costs of between 10 and 95 cents per gallon of fuel, depending on the size of IET’s system and how much it is paid to take waste. IET is currently in talks with a major Midwest utility and several municipalities interested in employing its technology, Surma says.

A colleague dubbed it the trash laser beam. (Hat tip to FuturePundit.)

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The Colombian Competitive Advantage in Illegal Drugs

Sunday, January 21st, 2007

Tyler Cowen calls The Colombian Competitive Advantage in Illegal Drugs: The Role of Policies and Institutional Changes by Francisco Thoumi the best piece on Colombia I have read:

Besides being a principle drug producer, Colombia is also the world’s largest manufacturer of counterfeit U.S. dollars; it is the main producer and user of assassins for hire (sicarios); it is the first or second Latin American exporter of prostitutes; it produces very high quality counterfeit documents, particularly passports; and it is a large producer of pirated software and CDs. Colombia is the only country of which this author knows where owners of urban lots and vacant houses place large “not for sale” signs to prevent fraudulent sales. Colombia is a country where the state has been a bounty, and where white-collar crime has grown dramatically judging by frequent newspaper reports. In Colombia, soldiers find a hidden guerrilla treasure accumulated through drug trafficking, extortion, and kidnappings and consider it normal to keep such treasures as a “prize” for serving in the armed forces. It is a country where police officials negotiate the transfer of captured cocaine with drug traffickers and where the terms “millionaire stroll” and “throw away person” were coined as euphemisms for a quick kidnapping of a person taken to A.T.M. machines to empty his or her bank account and for social cleansing. All these facts show that Colombia has developed a competitive advantage in economic activities that require law breaking or illegal skills. They also highlight the predatory nature of Colombian capitalism and the illegitimacy and weakness of property rights in the country.

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Video game playing may fulfill innate human need

Sunday, January 21st, 2007

Video game playing may fulfill innate human need:

In four studies reported in the journal Motivation and Emotion, Rigby and his colleagues sought to understand people’s motivation for playing the games and the games’ immediate effect on well-being.

In the first study, they had 89 people play a simple game involving jumping to different platforms. In the second phase, the researchers compared the experience of 50 people who played two 3-D adventure games, one very popular and one less so. In the third study, 58 people tried four different games, while in the fourth the researchers surveyed 730 members of an online gaming community who were experienced in playing “massively multiplayer online” games.

Players’ enjoyment of games depended on whether the games made them feel competent and independent, and, in the case of multiplayer games, connected to other players. Players who enjoyed their experience showed increases in well-being, self-esteem, and vitality after playing, while those whose needs weren’t satisfied reported lowered vitality and mood.

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Pareil Tale of Bridled Passion

Saturday, January 20th, 2007

Years ago I meant to write a story in the same style as this Pareil Tale of Bridled Passion:

How I met my wife
by Jack Winter
Published 25 July 1994 – The New Yorker

It had been a rough day, so when I walked into the party I was very chalant, despite my efforts to appear gruntled and consolate.

I was furling my wieldy umbrella for the coat check when I saw her standing alone in a corner. She was a descript person, a woman in a state of total array. Her hair was kempt, her clothing shevelled, and she moved in a gainly way.

I wanted desperately to meet her, but I knew I’d have to make bones about it since I was travelling cognito. Beknownst to me, the hostess, whom I could see both hide and hair of, was very proper, so it would be skin off my nose if anything bad happened. And even though I had only swerving loyalty to her, my manners couldn’t be peccable. Only toward and heard-of behavior would do.

Fortunately, the embarrassment that my maculate appearance might cause was evitable. There were two ways about it, but the chances that someone as flappable as I would be ept enough to become persona grata or a sung hero were slim. I was, after all, something to sneeze at, someone you could easily hold a candle to, someone who usually aroused bridled passion.

So I decided not to risk it. But then, all at once, for some apparent reason, she looked in my direction and smiled in a way that I could make heads and tails of.

I was plussed. It was concerting to see that she was communicado, and it nerved me that she was interested in a pareil like me, sight seen. Normally, I had a domitable spirit, but, being corrigible, I felt capacitated — as if this were something I was great shakes at — and forgot that I had succeeded in situations like this only a told number of times. So, after a terminable delay, I acted with mitigated gall and made my way through the ruly crowd with strong givings.

Nevertheless, since this was all new hat to me and I had no time to prepare a promptu speech, I was petuous. Wanting to make only called-for remarks, I started talking about the hors d’oeuvres, trying to abuse her of the notion that I was sipid, and perhaps even bunk a few myths about myself.

She responded well, and I was mayed that she considered me a savory character who was up to some good. She told me who she was. “What a perfect nomer,” I said, advertently. The conversation become more and more choate, and we spoke at length to much avail. But I was defatigable, so I had to leave at a godly hour. I asked if she wanted to come with me. To my delight, she was committal. We left the party together and have been together ever since. I have given her my love, and she has requited it.

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