Jeff Bezos’ Risky Bet

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

Business Week‘s cover story describes Jeff Bezos’ Risky Bet:

Bezos wants Amazon to run your business, at least the messy technical and logistical parts of it, using those same technologies and operations that power his $10 billion online store. In the process, Bezos aims to transform Amazon into a kind of 21st century digital utility. It’s as if Wal-Mart Stores Inc. had decided to turn itself inside out, offering its industry-leading supply chain and logistics systems to any and all outsiders, even rival retailers. Except Amazon is starting to rent out just about everything it uses to run its own business, from rack space in its 10 million square feet of warehouses worldwide to spare computing capacity on its thousands of servers, data storage on its disk drives, and even some of the millions of lines of software code it has written to coordinate all that.

Thank Goodness

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

Famed atheist Daniel Dennett says, Thank Goodness:

Two weeks ago, I was rushed by ambulance to a hospital where it was determined by c-t scan that I had a “dissection of the aorta” — the lining of the main output vessel carrying blood from my heart had been torn up, creating a two-channel pipe where there should only be one. Fortunately for me, the fact that I’d had a coronary artery bypass graft seven years ago probably saved my life, since the tangle of scar tissue that had grown like ivy around my heart in the intervening years reinforced the aorta, preventing catastrophic leakage from the tear in the aorta itself. After a nine-hour surgery, in which my heart was stopped entirely and my body and brain were chilled down to about 45 degrees to prevent brain damage from lack of oxygen until they could get the heart-lung machine pumping, I am now the proud possessor of a new aorta and aortic arch, made of strong Dacron fabric tubing sewn into shape on the spot by the surgeon, attached to my heart by a carbon-fiber valve that makes a reassuring little click every time my heart beats.

As I now enter a gentle period of recuperation, I have much to reflect on, about the harrowing experience itself and even more about the flood of supporting messages I’ve received since word got out about my latest adventure. Friends were anxious to learn if I had had a near-death experience, and if so, what effect it had had on my longstanding public atheism. Had I had an epiphany?
[...]
Yes, I did have an epiphany. I saw with greater clarity than ever before in my life that when I say “Thank goodness!” this is not merely a euphemism for “Thank God!” (We atheists don’t believe that there is any God to thank.) I really do mean thank goodness! There is a lot of goodness in this world, and more goodness every day, and this fantastic human-made fabric of excellence is genuinely responsible for the fact that I am alive today. It is a worthy recipient of the gratitude I feel today, and I want to celebrate that fact here and now.

To whom, then, do I owe a debt of gratitude? To the cardiologist who has kept me alive and ticking for years, and who swiftly and confidently rejected the original diagnosis of nothing worse than pneumonia. To the surgeons, neurologists, anesthesiologists, and the perfusionist, who kept my systems going for many hours under daunting circumstances. To the dozen or so physician assistants, and to nurses and physical therapists and x-ray technicians and a small army of phlebotomists so deft that you hardly know they are drawing your blood, and the people who brought the meals, kept my room clean, did the mountains of laundry generated by such a messy case, wheel-chaired me to x-ray, and so forth. These people came from Uganda, Kenya, Liberia, Haiti, the Philippines, Croatia, Russia, China, Korea, India — and the United States, of course — and I have never seen more impressive mutual respect, as they helped each other out and checked each other’s work. But for all their teamwork, this local gang could not have done their jobs without the huge background of contributions from others. I remember with gratitude my late friend and Tufts colleague, physicist Allan Cormack, who shared the Nobel Prize for his invention of the c-t scanner. Allan — you have posthumously saved yet another life, but who’s counting? The world is better for the work you did. Thank goodness. Then there is the whole system of medicine, both the science and the technology, without which the best-intentioned efforts of individuals would be roughly useless. So I am grateful to the editorial boards and referees, past and present, of Science, Nature, Journal of the American Medical Association, Lancet, and all the other institutions of science and medicine that keep churning out improvements, detecting and correcting flaws.

Nine Things Developers Want More Than Money

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

Nine Things Developers Want More Than Money:

  1. Being Set Up to Succeed
  2. Having Excellent Management
  3. Learning New Things
  4. Exercising Creativity and Solving the Right Kind of Problems
  5. Having a Voice
  6. Being Recognized for Hard Work
  7. Building Something that Matters
  8. Building Software without an Act of Congress
  9. Having Few Legacy Constraints

How World Cities Change

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

In How World Cities Change, Saskia Sassen argues that major cities may be losing population, but not because they’re drifting into irrelevance:

The shrinking of big-city populations has been both oversold and misinterpreted. Population is growing in some global cities, like Shanghai, London and Chicago. And in global cities where population is falling or stagnating, from New York to Manila, there is an inflow of highly educated 20- to 35-year-olds, along with an outflow of the very young and the old. What’s happening is a brutal triage: apartments that once held families now hold one single investment banker. And the space required by that single banker for offices, restaurants and shops can be two, three, four times more than that required by the family he or she replaces.

Tailing the X-Commuter

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

Tailing the X-Commuter looks at extreme commuters and their effect on the economy:

More Americans than ever are willing to trade time in their car for the dream of a big house and a big yard. Nearly 10 million people now drive more than an hour to work, up 50 percent from 1990. Many are doing what California real-estate agents call “driving ’til you qualify” for a mortgage. In places like southern California, each exit along the interstate saves you tens of thousands of dollars.

Companies are rushing to soak up some of that savings. Americans today eat an average of 32 meals a year in their cars, according to researcher Harry Balzer at the NPD Group. And they order one in four restaurant meals from the car. So McDonald’s is rolling out products that fit in cup holders, like its new Fruit ‘n Yogurt Parfait.

Convenience stores are going down the same road. The Sheetz convenience-store chain bolted touchscreen menus onto its gas pumps in the United States. The idea is that by the time you’re done filling up, your sandwich will be ready at the drive-through. “The fastest-growing appliance in America is not the microwave,” says NPD’s Balzer. “It’s the power window.” Coming next: private potties at the pump.

Cities Are the New Jungles

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

Most people see cities as the antithesis of nature, but Stefan Theil notes that Cities Are the New Jungles:

As they take a closer look, however, biologists in the nascent science of “urban ecology” are finding that cities are not just important habitats, but veritable hot spots of animal and plant life. “You can take any big city and find more species, more diverse habitats than in just about any national park or nature reserve,” says Josef Reichholf, professor of ornithology at Munich’s Technical University. Both in animal numbers as well as species diversity, he says, cities beat the countryside hands down.

Berlin, one of the best-studied cases, is home to two thirds of the 280 bird species existing in Germany, including peregrine falcons and ospreys — raptors that have disappeared from much of the country. What’s more, biologists say, urban biodiversity seems to be on the rise — as our cities become cleaner, suburbs grow greener, and more and more species learn to adapt. These findings are challenging an old piece of orthodoxy — that urbanization is the planet’s biggest environmental threat. On the contrary, it’s in the open country that plants and animals have seen the most rapid decline. The main culprit, biologists say: a highly efficient but species-killing agriculture, now spreading from the developed world to southern countries like Brazil.

The New Megalopolis

Sunday, November 5th, 2006

In The New Megalopolis, Richard Florida (The Flight of the Creative Class) argues that our focus on national development is wrong:

China isn’t the world’s most ferocious new economic competitor — the exploding east-coast corridor, from Beijing to Shanghai, is. India as a whole is not developing high-tech industries and attracting jobs, but the booming mega-region stretching from Bangalore to Hyderabad is. Across the world, in fact, nations don’t spur growth so much as dynamic regions — modern versions of the original “megalopolis,” a term coined by the geographer Jean Gottman to identify the sprawling Boston-New York-Washington economic power corridor.

He argues that there are 20 great “Megas” in the world, half in the United States:

These regions are home to just 10 percent of total world population, 660 million people, but produce half of all economic activity, two thirds of world-class scientific activity and three quarters of global innovations. The great urbanologist Jane Jacobs was the first to describe why megalopolises grow. When people cluster in one place, they all become more productive. And the place itself becomes much more productive, because collective creativity grows exponentially. Ideas flow more freely, are honed more sharply and can be put into practice more quickly. Later, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Lucas dubbed these forces “human capital externalities,” and explained why they seem to override “the usual economic forces,” like prices: “What can people be paying Manhattan or downtown Chicago rents for, if not to be around other people?”

There is, however, a tipping point. The forces of price and congestion begin pushing people away from the center. But make no mistake, this has nothing to do with the “decentralization of work,” as many have argued. The huge economic advantages of clustering still guide the process, which is why second cities emerge near big cities or in the corridors between them, not in the middle of nowhere.

Game Master

Saturday, November 4th, 2006

John Seabrook of The New Yorker calls Will Wright — creator of SimCity, The Sims, and the upcoming Spore — the Game Master. Wright is certainly an interesting individual:

When Will was nine, his father died of leukemia, and his mother took him and his younger sister, Whitney, back to Baton Rouge, her home town. Will went to Episcopal, a conventional prep school. He didn’t like it as much as the Montessori school, although he enjoyed discussions about God with the faculty. “That’s where I became an atheist,” he said. He started at Louisiana State University when he was sixteen; two years later, he transferred to Louisiana Tech. He excelled only in subjects that he was interested in: architecture, economics, mechanical engineering, military history. He had impractical goals — in addition to starting colonies in space, he wanted to build robots. He dropped out again after two years, drove a bulldozer for a summer, and then, in the fall of 1980, went to the New School, in Manhattan, where he studied robotics. He lived in an apartment over Balducci’s, in Greenwich Village, and spent a lot of time on Canal Street scrounging parts from the sur-plus electronics stores that used to line the street and using them to build a robotic arm.

In the spring of 1981, Wright answered an ad in a car magazine: Richard Doherty, a rally enthusiast, was looking participants to compete in a point-to-point race between Farmingdale, Long Island, and Redondo Beach, California. Wright had a Mazda RX-7, which he and Doherty modified with a larger fuel tank and a roll cage. They wore night-vision goggles so that they could drive fast in the dark without headlights and avoid the cops. “Will said we should take the southern route, even though it was longer, because if we got stopped he’d be able to talk to the cops,” Doherty told me. “We did get stopped in Georgia. We were doing a hundred and twenty, with no headlights, but it didn’t take Will more than a couple of minutes to make the officer see why he had to let us go without a ticket.” They won the race, establishing a new record of thirty-four hours and nine minutes.

One of the best aspects of the article is that it cites so many of Wright’s influences. Jason Kottke has compiled an annotated bilbiography of the works.

Addendum: I’ve written about Will Wright before.

Food for thought

Saturday, November 4th, 2006

In Food for thought, William R. Leonard explains how humans likely evolved to eat energy-dense animal foods to support their metabolically expensive brains:

Across all primates, species with bigger brains dine on richer foods, and humans are the extreme example of this correlation, boasting the largest relative brain size and the choicest diet [see 'Diet and Primate Evolution,' by Katharine Milton; Scientific American, August 1993]. According to recent analyses by Loren Cordain of Colorado State University, contemporary hunter-gatherers derive, on average, 40 to 60 percent of their dietary energy from animal foods (meat, milk and other products). Modern chimps, in comparison, obtain only 5 to 7 percent of their calories from these comestibles. Animal foods are far denser in calories and nutrients than most plant foods. For example, 3.5 ounces of meat provides upward of 200 kilocalories. But the same amount of fruit provides only 50 to 100 kilocalories. And a comparable serving of foliage yields just 10 to 20 kilocalories. It stands to reason, then, that for early Homo, acquiring more gray matter meant seeking out more of the energy-dense fare.

The 10 roads to Fatsville

Saturday, November 4th, 2006

The New Scientist presents The 10 roads to Fatsville:

  1. Not enough sleep
  2. Climate control
  3. Less smoking
  4. Prenatal effects
  5. Fat equals fecund
  6. A little older…
  7. More drugs
  8. Pollution
  9. Mature mums
  10. Like marrying like

How have things changed over the years? On the first point, Not enough sleep:

In 1960 people in the US slept an average of 8.5 hours per night. A 2002 poll by the National Sleep Foundation suggests that the average has fallen to under 7 hours. According to Spiegel, the decline in sleep is mirrored by the increase in obesity.

On the second point, Climate control:

Keeping warm and staying cool take energy unless we are in the “thermoneutral zone” — around 27 °C for a naked body — which is increasingly where we choose to live and work.

There’s no denying that ambient temperatures have changed in the past few decades. Between 1970 and 2000, the average British home warmed from a chilly 13 °C to 18 °C. In the US, the changes have been at the other end of the thermometer as the proportion of homes with air conditioning rose from 23 to 47 per cent between 1978 and 1997. In the southern states — where obesity rates tend to be highest — the number of houses with air con has shot up to 70 per cent from 37 per cent in 1978.

Imagine Earth without people

Saturday, November 4th, 2006

Bob Holmes, perhaps too gleefully, asks us to Imagine Earth without people:

Though modern buildings are typically engineered to last 60 years, bridges 120 years and dams 250, these lifespans assume someone will keep them clean, fix minor leaks and correct problems with foundations. Without people to do these seemingly minor chores, things go downhill quickly.

The best illustration of this is the city of Pripyat near Chernobyl in Ukraine, which was abandoned after the nuclear disaster 20 years ago and remains deserted. “From a distance, you would still believe that Pripyat is a living city, but the buildings are slowly decaying,” says Ronald Chesser, an environmental biologist at Texas Tech University in Lubbock who has worked extensively in the exclusion zone around Chernobyl. “The most pervasive thing you see are plants whose root systems get into the concrete and behind the bricks and into doorframes and so forth, and are rapidly breaking up the structure. You wouldn’t think, as you walk around your house every day, that we have a big impact on keeping that from happening, but clearly we do. It’s really sobering to see how the plant community invades every nook and cranny of a city.”

With no one to make repairs, every storm, flood and frosty night gnaws away at abandoned buildings, and within a few decades roofs will begin to fall in and buildings collapse. This has already begun to happen in Pripyat. Wood-framed houses and other smaller structures, which are built to laxer standards, will be the first to go. Next down may be the glassy, soaring structures that tend to win acclaim these days. “The elegant suspension bridges, the lightweight forms, these are the kinds of structures that would be more vulnerable,” says Masterton. “There’s less reserve of strength built into the design, unlike solid masonry buildings and those using arches and vaults.”

But even though buildings will crumble, their ruins — especially those made of stone or concrete — are likely to last thousands of years. “We still have records of civilisations that are 3000 years old,” notes Masterton. “For many thousands of years there would still be some signs of the civilisations that we created. It’s going to take a long time for a concrete road to disappear. It might be severely crumbling in many places, but it’ll take a long time to become invisible.”

Genoa

Saturday, November 4th, 2006

Nick Szabo looks at the history of Genoa, “the most commercially innovative city of premodern times”:

Insurance, the joint-stock corporation, close cooperation between navy and merchant marine, international trade and exploration, and banking all made substantial progress in Genoa. The basic drivers of these innovations were Genoa’s merchant culture and its unprecedented commitment to freedom of contract.

The Genovese struggled against Church doctrine banning usury by hiding interest charges as profits or exchange rates:

An example of the use of exchange rates to incorporate interest was the “dry loan” which structured interest as a transport charge commonly used in a “wet loan” which were normally paid off in a distant city as a way of transmitting money. Church leaders recognized many of these ruses and complained, but since Genovese municipal judges were, like the rest of the Genovese community, staunch advocates of freedom of contract, and since the Church was dependent on Genovese power (for example to transport and protect crusaders and pilgrims on the seas), the judges winked at these ruses and the Church mostly did not crack down on the practice. In the process of developing these ruses the Genovese became creative drafters of commercial contracts and learned to distinguish elements such as risk, loan, and investment that had been bundled together and treated as inseparable in previous eras.

Dungeons & Dragons Made Simple

Saturday, November 4th, 2006