Immigration is not something Mexico did to the United States

Saturday, June 19th, 2010

Immigration is not something Mexico did to the United States, Fred Reed says, but something the United States did to itself:

Decades ago it changed its laws to favor Latin immigrants, gives immigrant children born in the US citizenship, avidly employs the ilegals, forbids police to check their papers, give them social services and schooling, establishes “sanctuary cities,” and in general does everything but send them engraved invitations. And then expresses surprise when they come.

We hear endlessly that Mexicans are “taking the jobs of Americans.” Not quite. Reflect that every time a Mexican gets a job, it is because a shiny white noisily patriotic American businessman gives him that job.

Allowing the immigration in the first place was a terrible idea, Reed says, since diversity regularly proves disastrous, but now there is precious little to be done about it:

If I had the power, I would seal the border to stop the influx, declare blanket amnesty for those already in the country, and get on with life. Part of “getting on” would be to encourage assimilation since the last thing the US needs is another indigestible and permanent underclass.

Note (as I have never seen noted) that keeping them ilegal forces them into something close to an underclass. If Pablo wants to start a restaurant or auto-bodywork business, he can’t, because he will be asked for papers and eventually shut down.

The country seems to be trying to cause what it most doesn’t want. Some state or other wants to stop letting the children of ilegals attend school. Oh, good. Let’s create a population of angry illiterates who can’t possibly be assimilated. What could be wiser?

Sure to offend liberals and conservatives.

Cars and Freedom

Friday, June 18th, 2010

This ad borders on self-parody, but it’s fun:

It’s a shame that our democratic self-government hasn’t delivered the same level of freedom we enjoyed under benevolent monarchical neglect.

Now, as much as I enjoyed seeing General Washington in a Dodge Challenger, I’m really waiting to see General Lee in a Dodge Charger. I can already see the custom paint job in my mind’s eye.

The Machinery of Freedom

Friday, June 18th, 2010

David Friedman has posted a pirated copy of his own anarcho-capitalist book, The Machinery of Freedom, in PDF format:

Since he felt free to pirate my work, I think it only fair to free ride on his effort scanning the book in.

The book is dedicated to Miltion Friedman, Friedrich Hayek, Robert A. Heinlein, and Robert M. Schuchman.

Using irrational cognitive blindspots to your advantage

Friday, June 18th, 2010

Cory Doctorow reviews Dan Ariely’s The Upside of Irrationality, which includes advice on using irrational cognitive blindspots to your advantage:

My favorite is the section on adaptation, that is, the way in which both terrible pain and incredible delights fade down to a kind of baseline normal over time. Ariely points out that adaptation can be slowed or even prevented through intermittent exposure to the underlying stimulus — that is, if you take a break, the emotional sensation comes back with nearly full force.

Here’s where our intuitive response is really wrong: we have a tendency to indulge our pleasures without respite, and to take frequent breaks from those things that make us miserable. This is exactly backwards. If you want to maximize your pleasure — a great dessert, the delight of furnishing your first real apartment after graduation, a wonderful new relationship — you should trickle it into your life, with frequent breaks for your adaptive response to diminish. If you want to minimize your pain — an unpleasant chore, an awful trip — you should continue straight through without a break, because every time you stop, your adaptive response resets and you experience the discomfort anew.

(Hat tip to Buckethead.)

Write Your Name in Elvish in Ten Minutes

Friday, June 18th, 2010

Tokien was a linguist, and his imaginary world of Middle Earth is arguably an outgrowth of the imaginary languages he created, rather than vice versa.

The Tengwar script he created for writing some of these languages is notable in that the shapes of the letters correspond to the features of the sounds they represent:

  • Doubling the bow turns the voiceless consonant into a voiced one.
  • Raising the stem above the line turns it into the corresponding fricative.
  • Shortening it (so it is only the height of the bow) creates the corresponding nasal. It must be noted though that in most modes, the signs with shortened stem and single bow don’t correspond to the voiceless nasals, but to the approximants.

The Roman alphabet we inherited is not so consistent.

Anyway, Ned Gulley thinks any such discussion of voiceless plosives and Tengwar script makes writing your name in Elvish harder than it ought to be, and he demonstrates how to write your name in Elvish in ten minutes:

He relegates the symbols for ch, sh, and th to a supplementary alphabet, as an afterthought — right before the ad for getting an elvish tattoo.

Why Tony Hsieh Sold Zappos

Friday, June 18th, 2010

Tony Hsieh explains why he sold Zappos to Amazon — the second time they came calling:

As before, our plan was to stay independent and eventually go public.

But our board of directors had other ideas. Although I’d financed much of Zappos myself during its early days, we’d eventually raised tens of millions of dollars from outside investors, including $48 million from Sequoia Capital, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm. As with all VCs, Sequoia expected a substantial return on its investment — most likely through an IPO. It might have been happy to wait a few more years if the economy had been thriving, but the recession and the credit crisis had put Zappos — and our investors — in a very precarious position.

At the time, Zappos relied on a revolving line of credit of $100 million to buy inventory. But our lending agreements required us to hit projected revenue and profitability targets each month. If we missed our numbers even by a small amount, the banks had the right to walk away from the loans, creating a possible cash-flow crisis that might theoretically bankrupt us. In early 2009, there weren’t a lot of banks eager to give out $100 million to a business in our situation.

That wasn’t our only potential cash-flow problem. Our line of credit was “asset backed,” meaning that we could borrow between 50 percent and 60 percent of the value of our inventory. But the value of our inventory wasn’t based on what we’d paid. It was based on the amount of money we could reasonably collect if the company were liquidated. As the economy deteriorated, the appraised value of our inventory began to fall, which meant that even if we hit our numbers, we might eventually find ourselves without enough cash to buy inventory.

These issues had nothing to do with the underlying performance of our business, but they increased tensions on our board of directors. Some board members had always viewed our company culture as a pet project — “Tony’s social experiments,” they called it. I disagreed. I believe that getting the culture right is the most important thing a company can do. But the board took the conventional view — namely, that a business should focus on profitability first and then use the profits to do nice things for its employees. The board’s attitude was that my “social experiments” might make for good PR but that they didn’t move the overall business forward. The board wanted me, or whoever was CEO, to spend less time on worrying about employee happiness and more time selling shoes.

On some level, I was sympathetic to the board’s position. The truth was that if we pulled back on the culture stuff, the immediate effect on our financials would probably have been positive. It would have reduced our expenses in the short term, and I don’t think our sales would have suffered much at first. But I was pretty sure that in the long term, it would have ruined everything we had created.

By early 2009, we were at a stalemate. Because of a complicated legal structure, I effectively controlled the majority of the common shares, so that the board couldn’t force a sale of the company. But on the five-person board, only two of us — Alfred Lin, our CFO and COO, and myself — were completely committed to Zappos’s culture. This made it likely that if the economy didn’t improve, the board would fire me and hire a new CEO who was concerned only with maximizing profits. The threat was never made overtly, but I could tell that was the direction things were going.

It was a stressful time for me and Alfred. But we’d gotten through much tougher times before, and this seemed like just another challenge we needed to figure out. We began brainstorming ways that we could get out from under the board. We certainly didn’t want to sell the company and move on to something else. To us, Zappos wasn’t just a job — it was a calling. So we came up with a plan: We would buy out our board of directors.

We figured to do so would cost about $200 million. As we were talking to potential investors, Amazon approached Alfred about buying Zappos outright. Although that still didn’t seem like the best option to me, Alfred sensed that Amazon would be more open than last time to the idea of letting Zappos continue to operate as an independent entity. And we felt that the price Amazon was talking about was too large for us to ignore without potentially violating our fiduciary duty to our shareholders.

In April, I flew to Seattle for an hourlong meeting with Jeff Bezos. I gave him my standard presentation on Zappos, which is mostly about our culture. Toward the end of the presentation, I started talking about the science of happiness — and how we try to use it to serve our customers and employees better.

Out of nowhere, Jeff said, “Did you know that people are very bad at predicting what will make them happy?” Those were the exact words on my next slide. I put it up and said, “Yes, but apparently you are very good at predicting PowerPoint slides.” After that moment, things got comfortable. It seemed clear that Amazon had come to appreciate our company culture as well as our strong sales.

Still, I had plenty of concerns. Jeff’s approach to business had been very different from my own. One of the ways that Amazon tries to deliver a great customer experience is by offering low prices, whereas at Zappos we don’t try to compete on price. If Amazon gets a lot of customer service calls, it will try to figure out why — maybe there’s something confusing about the product description — and then it will try to fix the problem so that it can reduce the number of phone calls, which keeps prices low. But at Zappos, we want people to call us. We believe that forming personal, emotional connections with our customers is the best way to provide great service.

But as I talked to Jeff, I realized that there were similarities between our companies, too. Amazon wants to do what is best for its customers — even, it seemed to me, at the expense of short-term financial performance. Zappos has the same goal. We just have a different philosophy about how to do it.

I left Seattle pretty sure that Amazon would be a better partner for Zappos than our current board of directors or any other outside investor. Our board wanted an immediate exit; we wanted to build an enduring company that would spread happiness. With Amazon, it seemed that Zappos could continue to build its culture, brand, and business. We would be free to be ourselves.

What is IBM’s Watson Supercomputer?

Friday, June 18th, 2010

This AI can correctly respond to Jeopardy clues. What is IBM’s Watson Supercomputer?

Ferrucci’s main breakthrough was not the design of any single, brilliant new technique for analyzing language. Indeed, many of the statistical techniques Watson employs were already well known by computer scientists. One important thing that makes Watson so different is its enormous speed and memory. Taking advantage of I.B.M.’s supercomputing heft, Ferrucci’s team input millions of documents into Watson to build up its knowledge base — including, he says, “books, reference material, any sort of dictionary, thesauri, folksonomies, taxonomies, encyclopedias, any kind of reference material you can imagine getting your hands on or licensing. Novels, bibles, plays.”

Watson’s speed allows it to try thousands of ways of simultaneously tackling a “Jeopardy!” clue. Most question-answering systems rely on a handful of algorithms, but Ferrucci decided this was why those systems do not work very well: no single algorithm can simulate the human ability to parse language and facts. Instead, Watson uses more than a hundred algorithms at the same time to analyze a question in different ways, generating hundreds of possible solutions. Another set of algorithms ranks these answers according to plausibility; for example, if dozens of algorithms working in different directions all arrive at the same answer, it’s more likely to be the right one. In essence, Watson thinks in probabilities. It produces not one single “right” answer, but an enormous number of possibilities, then ranks them by assessing how likely each one is to answer the question.

Ferrucci showed me how Watson handled this sample “Jeopardy!” clue: “He was presidentially pardoned on Sept. 8, 1974.” In the first pass, the algorithms came up with “Nixon.” To evaluate whether “Nixon” was the best response, Watson performed a clever trick: it inserted the answer into the original phrase — “Nixon was presidentially pardoned on Sept. 8, 1974” — and then ran it as a new search, to see if it also produced results that supported “Nixon” as the right answer. (It did. The new search returned the result “Ford pardoned Nixon on Sept. 8, 1974,” a phrasing so similar to the original clue that it helped make “Nixon” the top-ranked solution.)

Other times, Watson uses algorithms that can perform basic cross-checks against time or space to help detect which answer seems better. When the computer analyzed the clue “In 1594 he took a job as a tax collector in Andalusia,” the two most likely answers generated were “Thoreau” and “Cervantes.” Watson assessed “Thoreau” and discovered his birth year was 1817, at which point the computer ruled him out, because he wasn’t alive in 1594. “Cervantes” became the top-ranked choice.

When Watson is playing a game, Ferrucci lets the audience peek into the computer’s analysis. A monitor shows Watson’s top five answers to a question, with a bar graph beside each indicating its confidence. During one of my visits, the host read the clue “Thousands of prisoners in the Philippines re-enacted the moves of the video of this Michael Jackson hit.” On the monitor, I could see that Watson’s top pick was “Thriller,” with a confidence level of roughly 80 percent. This answer was correct, and Watson buzzed first, so it won $800. Watson’s next four choices — “Music video,” “Billie Jean,” “Smooth Criminal” and “MTV” — had only slivers for their bar graphs. It was a fascinating glimpse into the machine’s workings, because you could spy the connective thread running between the possibilities, even the wrong ones. “Billie Jean” and “Smooth Criminal” were also major hits by Michael Jackson, and “MTV” was the main venue for his videos. But it’s very likely that none of those correlated well with “Philippines.”

After a year, Watson’s performance had moved halfway up to the “winner’s cloud.” By 2008, it had edged into the cloud; on paper, anyway, it could beat some of the lesser “Jeopardy!” champions. Confident they could actually compete on TV, I.B.M. executives called up Harry Friedman, the executive producer of “Jeopardy!” and raised the possibility of putting Watson on the air.

Friedman told me he and his fellow executives were surprised: nobody had ever suggested anything like this. But they quickly accepted the challenge. “Because it’s I.B.M., we took it seriously,” Friedman said. “They had the experience with Deep Blue and the chess match that became legendary.”

What Motivates Us

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

Although economists model human action in the aggregate as if the individuals involved were, in some narrow sense, rational, actual individuals are motivated by seemingly non-economic concerns, Dan Pink says:

(Hat tip to Cameron Schaefer.)

Diverging Diamond

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

Drivers in Springfield, Missouri are trying out the new diverging diamond interchange:

When a driver on the four-lane Kansas Expressway reaches the interchange, his two-lane path goes over a bridge spanning the interstate. There are stoplights for north- and southbound traffic at both ends of the bridge.

Passing through the first stoplight, traffic crosses over to the left side of the bridge. And at the stoplight on the other end of the bridge, cars cross back over to the right, returning everyone to the right side of the road.

Drivers wanting to get on the interstate no longer have to wait for a left-turn signal; they veer left as they cross the bridge, with no cross-traffic.

The whole thing’s cheap, too:

Saiko says that’s because the change doesn’t require much new construction. “We’re using the existing bridge, didn’t have to replace the bridge, so that’s a huge savings,” Saiko said. “If we would’ve had to replace the bridge, it would have been around $10 million — and this project was just around $3 [million].”

If time is money, consider that it took less than half a year to build the new interchange in Missouri. With traditional designs, construction can drag on for two years.

Five Best Curmudgeonly Books

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

John Derbyshire shares his list of the five best curmudgeonly books:

  1. Gulliver’s Travels, by Jonathan Swift
  2. Life of Johnson, by James Boswell
  3. A Mencken Chrestomathy, edited by H.L. Mencken
  4. The Essays, Articles and Reviews of Evelyn Waugh, edited by Donat Gallagher
  5. Collected Poems, by Philip Larkin

The Ghost of Larry Summers Lives in the SAT Data

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

The ghost of Larry Summers lives in the SAT data:

The graph below (data here) shows that there is a significant male-female SAT math test gap in favor of boys that has persisted since at least the early 1970s. The 35-point gap in math test scores in favor of boys in 2009 (average score of 534 for boys vs. 499 for girls) was basically unchanged from the 36-point test score gaps that existed back in 1973 (525 vs. 489) and 1974 (524 vs. 488). In other words, this huge male-female SAT math score gap in favor of boys has not changed for decades.

The next graph shows the significant “right tail disparity” in favor of boys for the 2009 math SAT test (data here). For all math scores on the high end above 570 (72nd percentile and above) boys are overrepresented compared to girls, and the “right tail disparity” widens as test scores increase, with boys getting greater and greater shares of the high scores as test scores approach 800. At the very high end for perfect scores of 800, boys (6,928) outnumbered girls (3,124) by a ratio of 2.22 to 1 (222 boys for every 100 girls), and represented 69 percent of high school test-takers with perfect math scores.

Betting on the Bad Guys

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

Scott Adams (Dilbert) recommends betting on the bad guys:

Apparently BP has its own navy, a small air force, and enough money to build floating cities on the sea, most of which are still upright. If there’s oil on the moon, BP will be the first to send a hose into space and suck on the moon until it’s the size of a grapefruit. As an investor, that’s the side I want to be on, with BP, not the loser moon.

Perhaps you recommend the obvious alternative, Investing in Well-Managed Companies?

When companies make money, we assume they are well-managed. That perception is reinforced by the CEOs of those companies who are happy to tell you all the clever things they did to make it happen. The problem with relying on this source of information is that CEOs are highly skilled in a special form of lying called leadership. Leadership involves convincing employees and investors that the CEO has something called a vision, a type of optimistic hallucination that can come true only in an environment in which the CEO is massively overcompensated and the employees have learned to be less selfish.

Why didn’t the US attack Japan through the North Pacific?

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

HBO’s The Pacific got me thinking about the Pacific Theater and why the US fought its way toward Japan through the South Pacific and the Central Pacific. Why didn’t the US attack Japan through the North Pacific?.

The slashing Japanese attack in the western and central Pacific in December 1941 opened the prospect of a more active military role for Alaska, especially if the Soviet Union became involved in the new Pacific war. Even before the Japanese struck, the United States had been hoping to obtain the use of Soviet air bases in the Vladivostok area, and, if Japan now attacked the maritime provinces of Siberia, the military collaboration of American and Soviet forces in the North Pacific appeared inevitable.

The Soviet Union, desperately involved against Germany in Europe, had neither the desire nor the resources for a two-front war if it could be avoided, although Marshal Joseph Stalin at first indicated that the Russians might be ready for some sort of positive action against Japan by the spring of 1942.

As the new year opened, both General Buckner in Alaska and the military planners in Washington wanted to push the development of an air route through Alaska that would permit the operation of American aircraft from Russian bases against Japan, and President Roosevelt himself was keenly interested in the proposal. The President was also concerned about the danger of a Japanese raid on the new military installations in Alaska, more concerned, indeed, than were his military advisers. In mid-February he indicated his desire for a “complete plan” for establishing a striking force in Alaska and the Aleutian Islands and in pushing the execution of this plan as far as possible by midsummer.

Taking into account the military situation in the western Pacific at the end of January 1942, the Army and Navy commanders in Alaska recommended a more specific plan for attacking Japan by way of the North Pacific. Noting that the other approaches to Japan were already protected by land based aviation, they advocated the establishment as soon as possible of striking bases on the Siberian mainland and Sakhalin Island, and the development of a secure convoy route to the Russian naval base at Petropavlovsk on the Kamchatka Peninsula. Their plan would involve rushing work on the airfields already under construction in Alaska, improving the air route via Nome and across Bering Strait, and establishing a string of seaplane bases, to be protected by Army garrisons, in the Aleutians beyond Dutch Harbor and Umnak. It would also require a large air and ground reinforcement of Alaska, and immediate negotiation with the Russians to permit the development and use of Siberian bases.

General DeWitt, in forwarding this proposal to Washington, concurred in its general concept, but he noted that the better part of a year would be needed to construct the facilities necessary for executing the plan and that, before Alaska could become a useful base for offensive operations, its successful defense must be assured. In Washington, Admiral King observed that the development of aviation facilities in Alaska was already well ahead of the ability of the War and Navy Departments to supply them with aircraft and that new and undefended air bases would be more of a liability than an asset. For the time being he was firmly opposed to the extension of aviation facilities in the Aleutians beyond Umnak, and indeed to any other preparations for offensive operations from Alaska until the Russians indicated a willingness to permit the operation of American planes from Siberian bases.

While the plan of the Alaskan commanders for an offensive from Alaska was still under review, the President in early March asked for further study of the feasibility of opening the Aleutian route to Siberia, so that it could be used if Japan attacked the Soviet Union. By March it was fairly evident that the Russians were not going to enter the Pacific war on their own initiative as long as they were heavily engaged in Europe, and therefore that they were very unlikely to give the Japanese cause for attack by opening their Far Eastern bases to American ships and planes, or even by letting Americans reconnoiter these bases as a step toward future offensive action from them. By the end of the month the Army and Navy had concluded, and so advised the President, that while the Alaskan air route via Nome might be used to deliver planes and other supplies to the Soviet Union, or to reinforce Russian air forces in Siberia if the Japanese attacked, it would be futile to do any more planning toward these ends until the President was able to conclude an agreement with Marshal Stalin for military collaboration. General Buckner was informed that for the present his forces would have to remain on the strategic defensive and that he could expect only a modest augmentation of these forces and for defensive purposes only.

This is all going on while the US is feeding the bear via Lend-Lease:

The Lend-Lease Act, passed by the U.S. Congress in March of 1941, gave President Franklin Roosevelt power to sell, transfer, lend or lease war supplies, including food, machinery and services, to nations whose defense was considered vital to the security of the United States during World War II. The program was originally intended for China and countries of the British Empire but in November, 1941, the USSR was included.

About 70 percent of all U.S. aid reached the Soviet Union via the Persian Gulf through Iran and the remainder went across the Pacific to Vladivostok or across the North Atlantic to Murmansk.

American aid to the Soviet Union between 1941 and 1945 amounted to 18 million tons of materiel at an overall cost of $10 billion ($120 billion modern) and 49 percent of it went through Vladivostok, the major Pacific port of Far Eastern Russia, Tuyll reported.

Vladivostok was a valuable port for this program because Russia’s northern ports of Arkhangelsk and Murmansk were attacked by Nazi Germany and many of the lend-lease shipments were lost.

In 1942-1944 the Soviet Union chartered about 120 American ships and 50 U.S. tankers, and to protect these vessels from attack by Japan in the wake of its December 1941 strafing of Pearl Harbor, American crews sailed under the Soviet hammer and sickle flag. When lend-lease shipments arrived at Vladivostok they were stored both in port terminals and in warehouses on Portovaya and Verkhne-Portovaya streets, then they were conveyed by train along the Trans-Siberian Railroad to points west. During the war the port of Vladivostok handled four times more cargo than Murmansk and Far Eastern railroad traffic was four times greater than the rest of nation.

90 percent of lend-lease cargo was not military, however it’s impossible to talk about this U.S. government directive without mentioning the huge number of trucks, planes and tanks which were supplied by America to the Soviet Union because most of the country’s vehicles were destroyed in the first months of war, Tuyll noted.

Once Upon a Time in Afghanistan

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

Once upon a time in Afghanistan, progress seemed inevitable:

I grew up in Kabul in the 1950s and ’60s. When I was in middle school, I remember that on one visit to a city market, I bought a photobook about the country published by Afghanistan’s planning ministry. Most of the images dated from the 1950s. I had largely forgotten about that book until recently; I left Afghanistan in 1968 on a U.S.-funded scholarship to study at the American University of Beirut, and subsequently worked in the Middle East and now the United States. But recently, I decided to seek out another copy. Stirred by the fact that news portrayals of the country’s history didn’t mesh with my own memories, I wanted to discover the truth. Through a colleague, I received a copy of the book and recognized it as a time capsule of the Afghanistan I had once known — perhaps a little airbrushed by government officials, but a far more realistic picture of my homeland than one often sees today.

A Strong Voice

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

Both men and women can accurately assess a man’s upper body strength based on his voice alone:

A team led by Aaron Sell at the University of California, Santa Barbara, recorded the voices of more than 200 men from the US, Argentina, Bolivia and Romania, who all repeated a short phrase in their native tongue. Sell’s team also put the men through a battery of tests of upper body strength.

When university students listened to the recordings, they accurately predicted the strength of the men, based on a seven-point scale from “weak” to “strong” — regardless of the language used. The voice analysis provided just as much information about a speaker’s strength as photographs.