Let’s get the facts on AIDS straight

Tuesday, November 10th, 2009

Let's get the facts on AIDS straight, Patri Friedman says:

So, tell me how I am misinterpreting the following stats from the CDC.
AIDS Cases by Transmission Category
Six common transmission categories are male-to-male sexual contact, injection drug use, male-to-male sexual contact and injection drug use, high-risk heterosexual (male-female) contact, mother-to-child (perinatal) transmission, and other (includes blood transfusions and unknown cause).

Looking at their table of total number of AIDS cases through 2007, we have a total of 1,009,219 cases. Of these, 48% were from MSM and 25% were from IDU, and 7% from both, for a total of 81% of cases directly from MSM or IDU. I think that 4/5ths qualifies as “mainly”.

Furthermore, the next largest category by far is “high-risk heterosexual contact”, defined as “Heterosexual contact with a person known to have, or to be at high risk for, HIV infection.” I don’t know the exact definition (does anyone else?), but I believe that this includes the partners of people who engage in MSM and IDU (as well as, of course, partners of those who have HIV).

This category makes up an additional 17.5%! Which leaves the total proportion of cases that is from other means, including hemophilia, blood transfusion, mother-to-child, and normal heterosexual contact as 1.8% of all cases.

It is not true that AIDS is a gay male disease. But it is true, according to all the stats I’ve seen, that AIDS is a disease of gay men, IV drug users, and those who sleep with them. The heterosexual transmissions rates are simply too low for it to have spread in the general population.

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