All Exit, No Voice

Saturday, November 15th, 2008

Mencius Moldbug present an alternative to democracy, something he calls the Patchwork:

The basic idea of Patchwork is that, as the crappy governments we inherited from history are smashed, they should be replaced by a global spiderweb of tens, even hundreds, of thousands of sovereign and independent mini-countries, each governed by its own joint-stock corporation without regard to the residents’ opinions. If residents don’t like their government, they can and should move. The design is all “exit,” no “voice.”

(I’m not aware of any specific writer that has proposed exactly this, but it is certainly not an original or interesting idea in and of itself. I’ve certainly read about six zillion science-fiction books in which this is the general state of the future. The devil, however, is in the details. We will go into the details.)

The essential inspiration for Patchwork is the observation that the periods in which human civilization has flowered are the periods in which it has been most politically divided. Ancient Greece, medieval Italy, Europe until 1914, China in the Spring and Autumn Period, and so on. Burckhardt once observed that Europe was safe so long as she was not unified, and now that she is we can see exactly what he meant.

To Some, the Ultimate Fight

Saturday, November 15th, 2008

I really should get over the shock of seeing positive MMA coverage in the MSM. From the WSJ comes To Some, the Ultimate Fight:

Saturday night in Las Vegas, Randy Couture will step into an eight-sided ring surrounded by a steel cage and stare down Brock Lesnar, a 31-year-old former NCAA wrestling champion who is six inches taller, at least 40 pounds heavier and 14 years younger. Mr. Couture, who is 45, will then have 25 minutes to knock his opponent unconscious, force him to quit or control him thoroughly enough to win by decision.

To do this will take everything he’s learned in a lifetime of fighting: a deep knowledge of leverage and posture earned over decades as an Olympic-caliber Greco-Roman wrestler, Brazilian jiujitsu techniques honed over the last 12 years against top Russian, Japanese and Dutch fighters, specialized boxing tactics and a peerless ability to read and exploit a rival’s weakness. All of this has made Mr. Couture the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s heavyweight champion and one of the greatest masters of mixed martial arts, a sport that has developed over the last 15 years from a novelty into a legitimate rival to boxing that some consider the world’s most sophisticated combative art.

Pay-per-view-television experts say it’s possible that Saturday’s fight, at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, could draw more than a million buys at $44.95 apiece, which would match the sport’s record and rank higher than all but two boxing matches from the last four years.
[...]
For more than a century, this primal drive to watch people fight has been satisfied by boxing, a traditional sport that tests combat ability along just one dimension: punching. Mixed martial arts permits a much wider range of striking (kicking and open-hand hits are permitted, as are most blows below the waist) as well as submissions, takedowns, and ground fighting, testing ability of all three. Fighters combine elements of martial arts including muay Thai, a form of boxing that allows the use of the knees, elbows and feet; sambo, a Russian variant of judo; and even karate. To be effective, a fighter has to develop a well-rounded game. Without extensive training, even a world-class wrestler or boxer can be thrashed.
[...]
Today, the sport puts on about two dozen major events a year here, mostly on pay-per-view television. Although there are other promotional bodies and feeder leagues, the UFC is the largest and most established: It hosts fights in largest venues, purses and bonuses for major fights can surpass $2 million, and is now sanctioned in 37 of the 45 states with athletic commissions.

HBO Gives Game of Thrones the Green Light

Friday, November 14th, 2008

George R.R. Martin calls it Huge, Huge News:

HBO has given the production order.

They will be filming the pilot episode of A GAME OF THRONES.

It’s just the pilot so far. They’ll need to see that before they decide whether to proceed with a full season’s episodes. So let’s all hope the pilot will kick serious ass.

It should. David Benioff and Dan Weiss did a terrific job with the script. And yes, all of you can relax, it’s very faithful. Dan and David will be the executive producers for the pilot and (we hope) the eventual series.

More details when I have ‘em. The news is very fresh. HBO just issued their own press release, which should be up on their website soon, if it’s not there already.

Winter is coming to HBO. Hot damn.

In Europe, crisis revives old memories

Friday, November 14th, 2008

In Europe, the financial crisis is reviving old memories — old, old memories:

“I haven’t forgotten history,” says Gert Heinz, a tax adviser in Munich. “If you depend on paper money you can lose everything. We’ve learned that the hard way after two world wars.”

So when Chancellor Angela Merkel went on television recently to tell Germans that their bank accounts were safe, Heinz, who at 68 still remembers the rows of canned food that his mother hoarded in the attic, decided he would rather be safe than sorry.

He converted another chunk of his savings into gold and stocked up on a six-month supply of rice, sugar, flour and a special brand of milk powder that lasts for half a century.

Heinz may be an extreme example, but he is not alone among Europeans who are looking for ways to protect themselves in the face of a financial storm that — at least so far — has affected them much less directly than it has many Americans. Indeed, his reaction reflects the history of a Continent that has weathered wars, revolutions and financial crises over the centuries, burnishing national convictions that are very different from those in the United States.

Only Europe would produce survivalists without guns.

More seriously, Europeans tend to have little or no money in their own stock markets:

In America, wealth and retirement savings are much more tied up in the stock market, with a majority of people owning at least a modest stake. By contrast, only 13 percent of German households and 24 percent of French ones own shares, according to 2006 figures compiled by the European Savings Institute. Pensions are still largely state-driven, not 401(k)-style investment accounts. Even for the British, who look more like Americans in terms of their credit card debt and mortgage exposure, the share of those who have invested in the market is only about 20 percent.

Russia’s role in rescuing Iceland

Friday, November 14th, 2008

Russia's role in rescuing Iceland is apparently to drive the US and UK mad with jealousy:

When Iceland announced it was seeking a $6bn (£4bn) loan from Russia to help rescue its crisis-ravaged economy, some in the NATO alliance, of which Iceland is a member, took fright.

They suspected that Russia was acting to further its geopolitical interests in the region in the guise of a white knight.
[...]
For its part, Iceland said Russia was not its first choice for saviour – they had expected significant help from the US and the UK.

“Considering the fact that many of our friends were not willing to help us, we had to discuss [the loan] with Russia,” Prime Minister Geir Haarde told Finnish daily Helsingin Sanomat.

Iceland took particular offence at Britain’s use of anti-terrorism legislation to freeze assets of banks operating in the UK.

As Gauti Kristmannsson, an associate professor of translation studies at the University of Iceland, put it, “We thought we had friends, in Europe and in the United States.”

“The disappointment with our old ‘friends’ is great,” he wrote in the New York Times.

If Dubai sneezes, who gets a cold?

Friday, November 14th, 2008

If Dubai sneezes, who gets a cold?

But even ultra-affluent Dubai is fragile these days. You see, this gem of the postmodern, globalized economy doesn’t really produce anything of value — its oil accounts for only about 5% of gross domestic product. Its economy relies on services, tourism and … that’s about it, actually. Those elaborate hotels, malls, amusement parks and skyscrapers? Heavily leveraged — built out of the shifting sands and the same intoxicating thin air that sustained Wall Street until recently.

And Dubai may be going down. The oil-rich neighbors that helped finance its boom have seen oil prices plummet, and worldwide, credit for speculative real estate projects is drying up. On Wednesday, the Dubai Financial Market closed lower than at any time in nearly four years; down 61% this year. Sooner or later, even the suntanned loafers here are going to feel the pinch.

I’m tempted to cheer, but unfortunately, the pain won’t be confined to the super-rich.

Nearly 80% of the United Arab Emirates’ population is made up of migrant laborers brought in to build Dubai’s skyscrapers and clean its luxurious hotels. These migrants come from India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and other poor and fragile regions, and once in Dubai, they work long hours in poor conditions, earning an average of $4 a day.

But it’s still more than they’d earn at home, and the wages they send back to their families help fuel development in their own countries. The U.A.E. is the world’s third-largest sender of remittances; its migrants send an estimated $6.5 billion to their home countries each year, an amount that rivals (and for some countries dwarfs) formal international development aid. If opportunities in Dubai (and other wealthy, migrant-dependent regions) diminish — and they will — many of those migrants will be forced back home, reducing remittances and increasing the pool of labor in fragile states already struggling with high unemployment rates.

L.A. Preps for the Big One With Massively Multiplayer Earthquake

Friday, November 14th, 2008

L.A. Preps for the Big One With Massively Multiplayer Earthquake:

Aftershock, run by the Institute for the Future and Art Center College of Design, is based on a 300-page U.S. Geological Survey scenario report that details the extensive damage that Southern California could experience in the aftermath of a 7.8-magnitude quake on the San Andreas Fault. The game began on Thursday and will run for three weeks, prompting users to complete real-world missions — and submit content based on them to the gaming community.
[...]
The new game is part of the largest earthquake preparedness drill ever attempted, the USGS-run Great Southern Californian Shakeout. At 10 a.m. local time Thursday, millions of Californians crawled under their desks in response to an imaginary major earthquake.
[...]
Tester said that the game is an attempt to bring the reality of the so-called Big One home to a younger demographic by borrowing the tropes of gaming. It is one of an increasing number of serious games attempting to deal with real-world problems through collaborative online action. Last year’s World Without Oil had players imagine the world in the midst of an acute crude shortage and the IFTF’s Superstruct asks players to craft solutions to a half-dozen near-future scenarios.

(Hat tip to BoingBoing.)

Wide-hipped fossil changes picture of Homo erectus

Friday, November 14th, 2008

Wide-hipped fossil changes picture of Homo erectus:

Writing in the journal Science, Simpson and colleagues said the size and shape of the 1.2 million-year-old pelvis indicates that H. erectus females had hips wider than those of modern human females and their infants were born with heads about 30 percent larger than previously calculated.

“What this means is the offspring were not as helpless as a modern human,” he said in a telephone interview.

“It is not coming out walking and talking. But it was probably capable of more advanced behavior at a younger age like grasping, like sitting up … than we would see in a modern human.”


Scientists did not know much about what [H. erectus's] body would have looked like until the discovery of “Turkana Boy,” an adolescent H. erectus whose bones were discovered in 1984.

His slim-hipped build led researchers to believe that H. erectus gave birth to small-headed babies that would have required a great deal of care in early life, much like modern human infants.

But Simpson said Turkana boy’s pelvis was damaged and the restoration of a near-complete female pelvis from Gona, Ethiopia, changes this picture.

Was the Sexual Revolution a Mistake?

Friday, November 14th, 2008

Was the Sexual Revolution a Mistake? If you’re conservative, the answer’s obvious: Um, duh? Yes. If you’re liberal, the answer’s also obvious: What? Are you some kind of cave person? David Friedman isn’t really conservative or liberal though, so he he thinks it through. His introduction sets the tone:

One would expect the availability of reliable contraception and legal abortion to have sharply reduced the number of children born out of wedlock. In fact it was accompanied, in the U.S. and abroad, with a steep increase in that number. Correlation is not causation but it does raise the possibility of causation, especially when it goes in precisely the opposite of the predicted direction.

Who Owns the West?

Friday, November 14th, 2008

Who owns the West? The Federal government:

Alex Tabarrok argues that now is the time for the Buffalo Commons:

Selling even some western land could raise hundreds of billions of dollars — perhaps trillions of dollars — for the Federal government at a time when the funds are badly needed and no one want to raise taxes. At the same time, a sale of western land would improve the efficiency of land allocation.
[...]
The government should sell some of its most valuable land in the west and use some of the proceeds to buy low-price land in the Great Plains.

The western Great Plains are emptying of people. Some 322 of the 443 Plains counties have lost population since 1930 and a majority have lost population since 1990.

Now is the time for the Federal government to sell high-priced land in the West, use some of the proceeds to deal with current problems and use some of the proceeds to buy low-priced land in the Plains creating the world’s largest nature park, The Buffalo Commons.

Anglo-American Interregnum

Friday, November 14th, 2008

Mencius Moldbug likes to play the arch-conservative, and he quips that the last few centuries of democracy will one day be called “something cool,” like the Anglo-American Interregnum:

Said Interregnum, which we are of course still in, has been a period of global monotonic decline in official authority. As in the late Roman period, declining official authority, declining personal morality, and increasing public bureaucracy are observed in synchrony. This is not in any way a coincidence.

Truth and Narrative

Thursday, November 13th, 2008

In Truth and Narrative, Arnold Kling asks us to consider two propositions:

1. Market failure is inevitable.
2. Government failure is inevitable.

In talking about the financial crisis, I believe that to speak the truth one has to accept both propositions. Most people prefer narrative, which either explicitly or implicitly denies one or the other. Those who deny the inevitability of market failure want to pin everything on the Community Reinvestment Act or somesuch. Those who deny the inevitability of government failure want to say that, yes, government failed, but that was because Bush was President, or (if we go back to Clinton) the ideology of free markets and deregulation was at fault.

For those who deny that government failure is inevitable, I am wondering what the narrative is for the “rescue plan” that Congress passed in September.

(a) You believe that it is succeeding, proving that government failure is not inevitable. If so, please list the signs of success that I should find comforting.

(b) You believe that team Obama has a much better plan that they are keeping secret for now. If so, any guesses as to who has the plan or what it might contain?

My interpretation of recent events is that government has seized a huge chunk of our wealth and enormous increments of power. Unless that in and of itself makes you happy, this is just another instance of government failure.

The End of Wall Street’s Boom

Thursday, November 13th, 2008

Michael Lewis describes The End of Wall Street’s Boom — but first he describes how and why he wrote Liar’s Poker 20 years ago, when he thought the end was imminent:

To this day, the willingness of a Wall Street investment bank to pay me hundreds of thousands of dollars to dispense investment advice to grownups remains a mystery to me. I was 24 years old, with no experience of, or particular interest in, guessing which stocks and bonds would rise and which would fall. The essential function of Wall Street is to allocate capital — to decide who should get it and who should not. Believe me when I tell you that I hadn’t the first clue.

I’d never taken an accounting course, never run a business, never even had savings of my own to manage. I stumbled into a job at Salomon Brothers in 1985 and stumbled out much richer three years later, and even though I wrote a book about the experience, the whole thing still strikes me as preposterous — which is one of the reasons the money was so easy to walk away from. I figured the situation was unsustainable. Sooner rather than later, someone was going to identify me, along with a lot of people more or less like me, as a fraud. Sooner rather than later, there would come a Great Reckoning when Wall Street would wake up and hundreds if not thousands of young people like me, who had no business making huge bets with other people’s money, would be expelled from finance.

When I sat down to write my account of the experience in 1989 — Liar’s Poker, it was called — it was in the spirit of a young man who thought he was getting out while the getting was good. I was merely scribbling down a message on my way out and stuffing it into a bottle for those who would pass through these parts in the far distant future.

Unless some insider got all of this down on paper, I figured, no future human would believe that it happened.

I thought I was writing a period piece about the 1980s in America. Not for a moment did I suspect that the financial 1980s would last two full decades longer or that the difference in degree between Wall Street and ordinary life would swell into a difference in kind. I expected readers of the future to be outraged that back in 1986, the C.E.O. of Salomon Brothers, John Gutfreund, was paid $3.1 million; I expected them to gape in horror when I reported that one of our traders, Howie Rubin, had moved to Merrill Lynch, where he lost $250 million; I assumed they’d be shocked to learn that a Wall Street C.E.O. had only the vaguest idea of the risks his traders were running. What I didn’t expect was that any future reader would look on my experience and say, “How quaint.”

I love the way he was totally misinterpreted:

I had no great agenda, apart from telling what I took to be a remarkable tale, but if you got a few drinks in me and then asked what effect I thought my book would have on the world, I might have said something like, “I hope that college students trying to figure out what to do with their lives will read it and decide that it’s silly to phony it up and abandon their passions to become financiers.” I hoped that some bright kid at, say, Ohio State University who really wanted to be an oceanographer would read my book, spurn the offer from Morgan Stanley, and set out to sea.

Somehow that message failed to come across. Six months after Liar’s Poker was published, I was knee-deep in letters from students at Ohio State who wanted to know if I had any other secrets to share about Wall Street. They’d read my book as a how-to manual.

7 Electric Motorcycles You Must See

Wednesday, November 12th, 2008

TreeHugger presents 7 Electric Motorcycles You Must See, but what amused me was my own reaction to Eva Håkansson on her Electrocat electric motorcycle.

First, I thought, “Wow, that looks like a real motorcycle.” It doesn’t look like a soy-substitute.

Then, I thought, “Wow, she looks so…green.” She looks exactly like the kind of grad student who should be on a veggie-burger scooter.

Hydraulic Hybrid Vehicles

Wednesday, November 12th, 2008

Hybrid electric vehicles make especially good sense for taxis, buses, garbage trucks, and delivery vehicles, which run all day in stop-and-go traffic. They can shut off their internal-combustion engine while idling, and they can recapture energy through regenerative braking.

Now UPS is considering another kind of hybrid vehicle, a hydraulic hybrid vehicle:

EPA and the United Parcel Service (UPS) have developed a hydraulic hybrid delivery vehicle to explore and demonstrate the environmental benefits of the hydraulic hybrid for urban pick-up and delivery fleets. The demonstration vehicle is a 24,000 pound UPS package car, fitted with an EPA-patented full-series hydraulic hybrid drive integrated into the rear axle. The vehicle competed in the Michelin Challenge Bibendum in China with other advanced technology vehicles and received the top overall ranking among all commercial hybrid vehicles (delivery vehicles and urban buses).
[...]
In laboratory tests, the city fuel economy of the hydraulic hybrid UPS vehicle is 60% to 70% increased miles per gallon compared to a conventional UPS truck. The CO2 emissions of the demonstration UPS vehicle are more than 40% lower than a comparable conventional UPS vehicle. The hydraulic hybrid vehicle also achieves approximately 50% lower hydrocarbon and 60% lower particulate matter in laboratory tests. This prototype vehicle has also demonstrated modest reductions in NOx emissions. Optimized production vehicles are expected to have larger NOx reductions. Hydraulic hybrids are able to capture and reuse 70-80% of the otherwise wasted braking energy.

I can’t say I’m impressed with this financial analysis:

When commercialized in high volume, EPA estimates that the additional cost of hydraulic hybrid technology has the potential to be about $7,000 for the UPS package car. In today’s dollars, the net lifetime savings of this technology in a typical UPS truck, which is used for 20 years, would be over $50,000. If fuel prices continue to increase faster than inflation, the lifetime savings would be even greater. The current data demonstrates that hydraulic hybrid vehicles have great potential not only for large commercial urban vehicles but also for personal vehicles, especially larger personal vehicles such as large SUVs, pickups, and vans.

How much is it saving in fuel costs per year? And for how many years? Are maintenance costs higher or lower than with a traditional engine and transmission? And will the salvage value be higher or lower at the end of its useful life?

Anyway, I’m sure you want to know how a hydraulic hybrid works:

A high-efficiency diesel engine is combined with a unique hydraulic propulsion system, replacing the conventional drivetrain and transmission. Hydraulic pumps and hydraulic storage tanks are used to store energy, similar to what is done with electric motors and batteries in hybrid electric vehicles.

A UPS press release explains it further:

With a diesel “series” hydraulic hybrid of the type being purchased by UPS, a high-efficiency diesel engine is combined with a unique hydraulic propulsion system, replacing the conventional drivetrain and transmission. The vehicle uses hydraulic pumps and hydraulic storage tanks to capture and store energy, similar to what is done with electric motors and batteries in a hybrid electric vehicle. In this case, the diesel engine is used to periodically recharge pressure in the hydraulic propulsion system. Fuel economy is increased in three ways: vehicle braking energy is recovered that normally is wasted; the engine is operated more efficiently, and the engine can be shut off when stopped or decelerating.

The EPA estimates that when manufactured in high volume, the added costs of the hybrid components can be recouped in less than three years through lower fuel and brake maintenance costs.