Start-Up Sells Solar Panels at Lower-Than-Usual Cost

Tuesday, December 18th, 2007

Start-Up Sells Solar Panels at Lower-Than-Usual Cost:

While many photovoltaic start-up companies are concentrating on increasing the efficiency with which their systems convert sunlight, Nanosolar has focused on lowering the manufacturing cost. Its process is akin to a large printing press, rather than the usual semiconductor manufacturing techniques that deposit thin films on silicon wafers.

Nanosolar’s founder and chief executive, Martin Roscheisen, claims to be the first solar panel manufacturer to be able to profitably sell solar panels for less than $1 a watt. That is the price at which solar energy becomes less expensive than coal.

Well, $1 per watt may be the price at which solar energy becomes less expensive than coal, but $1-per-watt panels are not $1-per-watt systems:

“With a $1-per-watt panel,” he said, “it is possible to build $2-per-watt systems.”

According to the Energy Department, building a new coal plant costs about $2.1 a watt, plus the cost of fuel and emissions, he said.

This could get interesting.

Nanosolar has raised $150 million and built a 200,000-square-foot factory in San Jose.

Magic Highway USA

Tuesday, December 18th, 2007

It’s been a while since I last watched Magic Highway USA, a beautiful and optimistic look at the future of travel from 1958.

You have to love the retro-futurism, with its assumption of ever larger public works projects. Why stop at paved highways when we can have illuminated interstate highways with radiant heat to melt away ice? Indeed, let’s heat the countryside in case a car passes through.

Some ideas seem both reasonable and wild, like giant VTOL emergency aircraft, which can dash to a crash site and whisk away both injured victims and their damaged vehicles.

Of course, in 1958, the future is atomic. We’ll use mobile atomic reactors to melt tunnels through mountains. Eventually we’ll drive atomic cars. What could go wrong?

One of the biggest difference in attitude though involves not just an optimistic view of what we will be able to do, but of what we should do.

From 1958, lining a steep mountainside with high-tech highways seemed like a great idea. It’s not just a beautiful natural scene; it’s a beautiful natural scene with a beautiful high-tech marvel too!

I felt like some kind of Luddite when I got to the end and saw the highway of tomorrow passing right by the sphinx and off toward the pyramids. Of course, that’s not too far from what ended up happening, only the intervening countryside is no longer pristine desert.

How to Spot a Cylon

Tuesday, December 18th, 2007

Xeni Jardin of Boing Boing heartily recommends this How to Spot a Cylon poster:

These posters are a steal at $19.95, when you think of all the human lives they might save.

Federal Alcohol and Tobacco Excise Taxes

Tuesday, December 18th, 2007

The various Federal Alcohol Excise Taxes aren’t exactly consistent:

Product Tax Tax per Package
Beer Barrel (31 gallons) 12 oz. can
Regular Rate $18 $0.05
Reduced Rate $7 on first 60,000 barrels for brewer who produces less than 2 million barrels. $18 per barrel after the first 60,000 barrels. $0.02
Wine Wine Gallon 750ml bottle
14% Alcohol or Less $1.071 $0.21
Over 14 to 21% $1.571 $0.31
Over 21 to 24% $3.151 $0.62
Naturally Sparkling $3.40 $0.67
Artificially Carbonated $3.301 $0.65
Hard Cider $0.2261 $0.04
(1 $0.90 credit, or for hard cider $0.056, may be available for the first 100,000 gallons removed by a small winery producing not more than 150,000 w.g. per year. Decreasing credit rates for a winery producing up to 250,000 w.g. per year.)
Distilled Spirits Proof Gallon * 750ml Bottle
All $13.50 less any credit for wine and flavor content. $2.14 (at 80 proof)
* A proof gallon is a gallon of liquid that is 100 proof, or 50% alcohol. The tax is adjusted, depending on the percentage of alcohol of the product.
Tobacco Products 1000 units Pack of 20
Small Cigarettes $19.50 $0.39
Large Cigarettes $40.95 $0.82
Small Cigars $1.828 $0.04
Tobacco Products 1000 units Each
Large Cigars 20.719% of sales price but not to exceed $48.75 $0.05 maximum
Tobacco Products 1 lb. 1 Ounce Tin or Pouch
Pipe Tobacco $1.0969 $0.07
Chewing Tobacco $0.195 $0.01
Snuff $0.585 $0.04
Roll-your-own Tobacco $1.0969 $0.07

Notice the odd categories for wine — especially carbonated — cider, etc. The tax on distilled spirits seems elegant by comparison to the rest. I wonder why tobacco companies don’t market more “small cigars” in place of cigarettes…

Alcohol laws of the United States by state

Monday, December 17th, 2007

The alcohol laws of the United States vary by state, of course, with some peculiar laws in some states.

Alabama:

Beer containers may not exceed 16 ounces (0.47 l).

Arkansas:

Only wine produced in-state may be sold in supermarkets.

California:

Sale or distribution of alcohol higher than 153 proof is illegal.

Kansas:

Kansas prohibited all alcohol from 1881 to 1948, and continued to prohibit on-premises sales of alcohol from 1949 to 1987. Sunday sales only have been allowed since 2005. Today, 29 counties still do not permit the on-premises sale of alcohol. 59 counties require a business to receive at least 30% of revenue from food sales to allow on-premises sale of alcohol.

Massachusetts:

No “Happy Hours” or other limited time discounts on alcoholic beverages. No fixed price open bar/all-you-can-drink (except at private functions). Only 2 drinks can be sold to an individual at any one time for on-premises consumption.

Nevada:

State law renders public intoxication legal, and explicitly prohibits any local or state law from making it a public offence.

New York:

All liquor stores must be owned by a single owner, who owns that store and lives within a certain distance of it — in effect banning chain liquor stores from the state.

Utah:

Restaurants and “Private Clubs” must buy from the State controlled store (no delivery) at retail prices. No alcohol served in restaurants without purchase of food. Only 3.2% beer available on tap.

Wisconsin:

Wisconsin permits the consumption of alcohol by minors, provided they are being supervised by parents/guardians.

How Steven Den Beste got interested in military history and military science

Monday, December 17th, 2007

Steven Den Beste hasn’t posted to his USS Clueless blog in years, but since I was recently reminded of an old post of his I decided to go back a re-read some of his classics, like this post, which explains how he got interested in military history — by playing Napoleonic war games, then going out and reading the great works on war:

Of course, I was intensely interested in trying to learn more about this so as to try to become better at it, and I heard, somewhere or other, about Clausewitz. He was one of the top commanders in the Prussian Army and was a protogé of Scharnhorst, the genius who led the group of people who redesigned the Prussian Army after the disaster of 1806. He was chief of staff of the Prussian Second Corps in the Waterloo campaign (which is to say that he was one of the ten top ranking officers in the Prussian field army). In the 1820′s he wrote (but didn’t complete) On War, and not knowing much about it, it occurred to me that it might be a great source of information about how the Prussian Army should be fought in our games. How wrong I was.

Clausewitz was writing for the ages. His book is rightfully recognized as a classic of political and military science, because he was able to recognize and ignore those aspects of warfare which were local to his place and time, and concentrate on those aspects of war which were universal and timeless. Like most translations from German, it’s a difficult book to read, but it was a revelation. And I started reading.

I read The Age of Napoleon by Will Durant — and discovered that history was fascinating. I had always hated history in grade school and high school, and hadn’t take any history courses at all in college. But it isn’t that history is awful, but rather that it is so badly taught (at least in the schools I attended) and also that I wasn’t yet mature enough to appreciate it. I’ve been hooked on history ever since, and the more I read, the more I wanted to read. About ten years ago I largely stopped reading fiction because it was keeping me from all those fascinating history books.

After I read the novel Shogun, I then read the classic book The Five Rings by Miyamoto Musashi, and got hooked on Japanese culture. When I got involved in a group which played Thirty Years War (1618-1648, the first major war were infantry firearms were broadly and effectively used) the dramatic differences between it and the Napoleonic era got me fascinated in the technology of weapons. (More study.) And always, always, the issue that Clausewitz raised of how warfare was affected by the politics of the time. Durant’s Caesar and Christ got me interested in the Roman Empire, and I read The Twelve Caesars and Caesar’s history of the Roman Civil War (which apparently wasn’t actually written by him).

The question ceased to be “How did they fight” and changed to “Why did they fight and how and why did they win?” War is very revealing; no nation reveals its true nature more completely than when it is in a war. For example, there can be no greater contrast in World War II than between how the United States and Japan treated POWs and people in occupied territories. (There is also no greater argument against moral equivalence.)

Before I began this learning process, I thought that war was both straightforward (it’s just people shooting at each other) and invariably wrong, something to be avoided at all cost. The more I learned about it, the more complicated it became. There’s a famous quote from Jefferson: “Your education is complete when you realize how little you know.” That certainly applies here: with all my study, I now know how little I actually know about war, even though I probalby know more about it now than 99% of my peers, having studied it off and on for more than twenty years. And even more strange, I’m no longer convinced that it is always wrong, or always something that should be avoided.

It’s not that I want war; no sane man wants a war. But it is not always the worst alternative. There are cases where war must be chosen because all the alternatives are worse. And in a war it is necessary to do many evil things — but ethically speaking you don’t compare those against peace time and brotherhood and bunnyrabbits dancing among daisies in the sun; you compare those evil acts against how awful things would have been if you’d avoided the war and let your enemy do unmolested what he wants to (which is rarely to let bunnyrabbits dance in the sun). There should be an economy to war: you use exactly as much force and exactly the tactics which let you win, without doing any more evil than is absolutely necessary (though when there is any doubt, you err on the side of winning). But you cannot avoid all evil in war. Though war is never good, it is sometimes ethically correct.

But it all began for me with Clausewitz. Clausewitz is to military science what Darwin is to biology, or Newton to physics; he’s the one who tied it all together, and changed it from a collection of observations into a unified field. He provided the framework into which everything else fit. He made sense of it all. If you read no other book about war, let it be Clausewitz.

Why Don’t Sports Teams Use Randomization?

Monday, December 17th, 2007

Ian Ayres (Super Crunchers) guest-posts on the Freakonomics blog, asking Why Don’t Sports Teams Use Randomization?

The Boston Red Sox are famous for relying on number crunching to gain a competitive edge. But why don’t they proactively make some powerful data by creating randomized treatment and control groups? They could use their minor league teams, for instance, to figure out whether catchers or pitchers make better calls.

They could even have a randomized trial of randomization — they could randomly assign the pitches for half the at-bats to be called in the traditional way (by the coach or the catcher) and the other half could be called by a random strategy established in advance. It would be a double-blind study, because neither the pitcher nor the hitter would need to know which system called the pitch.

If it turned out that the random strategy reduced the batting average of your opponents, that would be pretty strong evidence that it was a better strategy.

It turns out that football teams should almost always go for it on fourth down:

Or you could run an experiment to find out whether football teams should go for it more often on fourth down. Economist David Romer has crunched numbers to suggest that professional football teams should go for it fourth down a lot more than they currently do.
[...]
Amazingly, the data suggests that if it’s fourth down and your team has the ball on the opponent’s 33-yard line, you should go for it even if you have 9 yards left for a first down. NFL coaches have resisted Romer’s advice (though Pulaski Academy has started acting on it). But this is another area in which a little randomized testing could go a long way to help figure out what works. There are thousands upon thousands of college and high school games, but we collectively go for decades without figuring out whether simple changes in strategy could really produce better outcomes.

There are very few risk-takers, like Coach Leach, out there, and even fewer scientific risk-takers coaching football.

Guess Who’s Building a Green City

Monday, December 17th, 2007

Guess Who’s Building a Green City — Abu Dhabi:

The whole effort is being dubbed Masdar—”the source” in Arabic—a reference to the sun. The city is also called Masdar and will look like a cross between The Arabian Nights and The Jetsons. It will draw on traditional Arabic architecture, using wind towers to funnel air through the city as natural air conditioning and splashing fountains in courtyards to dampen the dry heat. Like an ancient casbah, the buildings will be huddled close together on narrow streets to reduce demand for cooling power during Abu Dhabi’s 120-degree summer days. But Masdar will also incorporate the most advanced technology available for refrigeration and other systems. “We will need the most extreme energy-efficiency standards from the beginning,” explains Al Jaber.

Aerial Warfare Seen from 1910

Monday, December 17th, 2007

Donald Pittenger comments on aerial warfare as seen from 1910:

The closest analog they could think of was naval warfare.

The naval analogy made sense because early airplanes were doing well if they simply took off, climbed a few hundred feet into the air, circled around for a while and then landed safely. While airborne, they pretty much stayed in a horizontal plane; aerobatic maneuvers came a few years later when comparatively light, powerful motors allowed heavier, stronger airplanes to be built. During the Great War fighter aircraft engaged in swirling dogfights, but that was the future observers around 1910 were scratching their heads about.

Airships — blimp-type craft and dirigible Zeppelins — were even more constrained to a horizontal maneuver plane than aircraft.

Given the horizontal nature of flight at that time, it was easy to look at naval warfare, fought on the essentially horizontal plane of the sea, as the analog. So we have aircraft armed with shell-type guns taking pot-shots at each other.

The image is by newspaper artist Henry Grant Dart:

For more on Dart and his work, see here, here and here.

In Counterinsurgency Class, Soldiers Think Like Taliban

Monday, December 17th, 2007

In Counterinsurgency Class, Soldiers Think Like Taliban:

Students took the roles of insurgents in an academy session late last month. Capt. Khawja Mohammed, a 38-year-old training officer for the Afghan riot police, suggested they stage a public hanging of someone suspected of collaborating with the coalition. “We can intimidate people,” he offered.

Lt. Col. Sayed Najeeb of the Afghan intelligence service proposed a series of attacks on coalition or government checkpoints. “That will tell the people that the government can’t take care of itself,” Col. Najeeb, a 38-year-old with a thick black beard, black shirt and black pinstriped suit. He spoke in Dari, one of Afghanistan’s main languages, through an interpreter. As insurgents, he said, “We can tell the people that the infidels have come to destroy their religion, but if we don’t demonstrate enough force, people won’t join us.”

Sgt. First Class James Litchford, 43, from Hattiesburg, Miss., said he would plan a frontal assault on a major U.S. base. The attackers should grab the Americans “by the belt,” he said — that is, get so close to the base so fast that the defenders wouldn’t dare use air strikes or artillery for fear of hitting their own men. Then the insurgents would swarm through the base defenses, he said.

“All you’ve got to do is overrun it,” he said. “You don’t have to hold it.” The news media would do the rest, he said, boosting the insurgents’ standing in Afghanistan and damaging morale back in the U.S. “We’ve got to bleed them out and make the coalition lose its will to fight,” said Sgt. Stockdill, a beefy 33-year-old from Rural Valley, Pa., warming to the challenge.

I don’t envy these guys:

But as the academy students discovered, putting the theory into practice can feel like building a sand castle as the tide is coming in. There’s only so much aid money to go around. There are only so many soldiers to clear and hold. There are local blood feuds to resolve. There are local power structures to decipher. There are civilians to charm. And there are insurgents trying to disrupt the whole venture.

One common complaint in Afghanistan is that the coalition makes big promises, but fails to deliver. “Afghans don’t understand how, if the world’s only superpower is involved in a fight, it can’t get them a goddamn road after promising to do so in 2002,” says Capt. Helmer.

Smaller missteps can undo months of counterinsurgency efforts. Lt. Isaac and a fellow instructor arrived at the academy last month in a U.S. military convoy. The drivers, worried about suicide bombers and ambushes, sped through Kabul, honking and bullying civilian vehicles away. “We just made a thousand new enemies,” Lt. Isaac told his colleague.

Another example: As a goodwill gesture in September, coalition soldiers in Khost Province handed out soccer balls decorated with the flags of the world. One of them, the Saudi flag, bears a verse from the Koran. Rumors spread widely that the coalition was, in essence, encouraging Afghan children to put their holy book on the ground and kick it.

More damaging are any deaths of Afghan civilians at the hands of coalition forces. Sgt. Litchford told his classmates one day: “The military can’t win this war, but it sure as hell can lose it.” Capt. Ray Gilmore, a 30-year-old from North Conway, N.H., told his students about a fight earlier this year in the Zerkoh Valley, in which locals and Western media reported that U.S. air strikes killed dozens of civilians. The U.S. military says Special Forces troops came under Taliban attack and killed 136 fighters, but that further investigation found no evidence of civilian deaths. Still, the Afghan government permanently banned coalition troops from entering the area, Capt. Gilmore says.

Capt. Helmer says counterinsurgents face a paradox: “The more you protect the force, the less safe you are.” When coalition troops hole up in big bases, surrounded by barbed wire and sand barriers, they risk turning the locals toward the insurgents. Small, vulnerable outposts set among the villages, such as ones the Army has erected along the Pech River Valley near Pakistan, bring troops and people closer together. When the insurgents attack the troops, they are attacking the people, too. But such exposed positions also increase the near-term risk of allied casualties.

Bill Duff from Human Weapon KO’d by Taekwondo Black Belt

Sunday, December 16th, 2007

It looks like Bill Duff from Human Weapon failed to use his superior size and strength against a Korean Taekwondo black-belt:

Civil Disobedience Needs a Decent Environment

Saturday, December 15th, 2007

Chris Bateman is a game designer with an interest in philosophy — political and otherwise — and he has decided to write a series on Civil Disobedience. He notes that Gandhi “changed the way the world viewed resistance — for perhaps the first time, non-violent action was taken seriously as a political tool.”

Steven Den Beste notes that there’s a really good reason why non-violent action was not taken seriously as a political tool before:

Nonviolent direct action is only powerful and successful in very special circumstances. Both Ghandi [sic] and King were able to use the tactics they did because they were working within what amounted to an extremely decent environment, where they could be certain that their opponent recognized very strong limits on what could be done in retaliation to them for their actions. But when the opponent recognizes no such limits, such actions are simply a very virtuous way to commit suicide. Perhaps it would get you into heaven, but it would have no measurable success here on earth. If either Ghandi [sic] or King had attempted what they did in occupied Europe in 1944, they would have been disappeared by the Gestapo and would not be even a footnote in history.

That’s Got To Be Disappointing To The Big Russian

Friday, December 14th, 2007

Megan McArdle reminded me of The All-Drug Olympics, a bit of comedy gold from back in the day:

Dennis, getting ready to lift now is Sergei Akmudov of the Soviet Union.

His trainer has told me that he’s taken anabolic steroids, Novacaine, Nyquil, Darvon, and some sort of fish paralyzer. Also, I believe he’s had a few cocktails within the last hour or so. All of this is, of course, perfectly legal at the All-Drug Olympics — in fact it’s encouraged.

Akmudov is getting set now. He’s going for a clean and jerk of over fifteen hundred pounds, which would triple the existing world record. That’s an awful lot of weight, Dennis, and here he goes.

Oh! He pulled his arms off! He’s pulled his arms off! That’s got to be disappointing to the big Russian!

You know, you hate to see something like this happen, Dennis! He probably doesn’t have that much pain right now, but I think tomorrow he’s really going to feel that, Dennis! Back to you!

Coal Ash Is More Radioactive than Nuclear Waste

Friday, December 14th, 2007

Coal Ash Is More Radioactive than Nuclear Waste, according to Scientific American:

[T]he waste produced by coal plants is actually more radioactive than that generated by their nuclear counterparts. In fact, fly ash — a by-product from burning coal for power — contains up to 100 times more radiation than nuclear waste.

At issue is coal’s content of uranium and thorium, both radioactive elements. They occur in such trace amounts in natural, or “whole,” coal that they aren’t a problem. But when coal is burned into fly ash, uranium and thorium are concentrated at up to 10 times their original levels.

It’s not like this is a problem though:

McBride and his co-authors estimated that individuals living near coal-fired installations are exposed to a maximum of 1.9 millirems of fly ash radiation yearly. To put these numbers in perspective, the average person encounters 360 millirems of annual “background radiation” from natural and man-made sources, including substances in Earth’s crust, cosmic rays, residue from nuclear tests and smoke detectors.

Banning samurai swords

Friday, December 14th, 2007

The British government is banning samurai swords:

The government said Wednesday it would ban the sale of samurai swords because the weapons had been used in a number of serious, high-profile attacks.

The Home Office said the swords would be added to the Offensive Weapons Order from April next year, meaning they could not be imported, sold or hired.

However collectors of genuine Japanese swords and those used by martial arts enthusiasts would be exempt from the ban.

“In the wrong hands, samurai swords are dangerous weapons,” Home Office Minister Vernon Coaker said.

“We recognize it is the cheap, easily available samurai swords which are being used in crime and not the genuine more expensive samurai swords which are of interest to collectors and martial arts enthusiasts.”

The Association of Chief Police Officers said the swords were not a common weapon but they had been used in a number of significant incidents.

In 2000, Robert Ashman murdered a Liberal Democrat councilor at the offices of Cheltenham MP Nigel Jones, who was also seriously hurt in the attack.

A year earlier, Eden Strang seriously wounded 11 people when he went on the rampage with a samurai sword at a Roman Catholic Church near his home in Thornton Heath, south London.

I’m pretty sure attacking people with a sword was already illegal.