A Referendum on Globalization

Friday, November 11th, 2016

Newly minted poli sci Ph.D. Darren Beattie predicted Trump’s win last year:

I thought Trump would win as early as July of last year. There are various signals that someone really attuned to politics knows to look for. One of the signals for me is when Trump made his provocative remarks on immigration and then refused to apologize in the wake of overwhelming corporate and media opposition. Let me be very clear: This does not mean that I like the way he phrased his remarks. My point is that his willingness to take a position on immigration so antithetical to corporate Republican donors and then not be cowed by the usual shaming tactics reflected early on a certain independence and flexibility that led me to think we’re dealing with a very different type of candidate than we’re used to.

He’s not impressed by pundits:

One thing about pundits and “experts” that readers have to understand is that they are not paid to make accurate predictions or give accurate analysis; they are paid to give predictions and analysis that advance a particular agenda, usually the agenda of some billionaire benefactor or corporate media platform. This is a powerful explanation because it accounts for how most of these people can be utter failures and somehow keep their jobs. Just watch, now a lot of these people who were wrong about everything will be asked their “expert opinion” on how and why they went wrong! Some of the “experts” who criticized Trump’s foreign policy are “experts” solely by virtue of being involved in one of the biggest foreign policy disasters of our nation’s history—the Iraq War. It would be hilarious if it weren’t so pathetic. For the academic pollster types, the situation is still more pitiful because they’re not even getting rich off of their wrong predictions.

He sees the current era as a referendum on globalization.

Beattie draws a strong distinction between “centrist” and “mainstream”:

Centrist in my view is pretty much in the center of what most people in the country actually believe; “mainstream” refers to positions promoted by the corporate media and academic opinion. Trump’s success, I think, points to the difference between centrist and mainstream. I do think we will see a change in Trump’s tone. I think all of his most significant proposals will become law. Keep in mind that for a lot, all he has to do is repeal executive orders.


  1. Slovenian Guest says:

    Peter Thiel, who is joining Trumps transition team, perfectly summed him up:

    I think one thing that should be distinguished here is that the media is always taking Trump literally. It never takes him seriously, but it always takes him literally. … I think a lot of voters who vote for Trump take Trump seriously but not literally, so when they hear things like the Muslim comment or the wall comment, their question is not, ‘Are you going to build a wall like the Great Wall of China?’ or, you know, ‘How exactly are you going to enforce these tests?’ What they hear is we’re going to have a saner, more sensible immigration policy.

  2. lucklucky says:

    I don’t agree, the most preeminent cause is that most people feel that USA is going wrong way for a diverse number of causes. I ‘ll say that the sense of not belonging is the biggest one.
    The cultural intolerance of the left now returned by the right.

  3. lucklucky says:

    One of the big reasons is how the establishment conspire to not enforce immigration laws.

    If the establishment does not think it needs to respect the law then now one needs to respect the law.

    And if no one needs then it is the end.

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