Brett Arends of the Wall Street Journal gives 10 reasons to be cautious about the economy. His sixth point is that the jobs picture is much worse than they’re telling you:
Forget the “official” unemployment rate of 9.5%. Alternative measures? Try this: Just 61% of the adult population, age 20 or over, has any kind of job right now. That’s the lowest since the early 1980s — when many women stayed at home through choice, driving the numbers down.
Among men today, it’s 66.9%. Back in the ’50s, incidentally, that figure was around 85%, though allowances should be made for the higher number of elderly people alive today. And many of those still working right now can only find part-time work, so just 59% of men age 20 or over currently have a full-time job. This is bullish?
(Today’s bonus question: If a laid-off contractor with two kids, a mortgage and a car loan is working three night shifts a week at his local gas station, how many iPads can he buy for Christmas?)
Reasons to be “cautious”? I suppose it’s considered “mature” to be understated, but I’d rather see more data and open-eyed analysis. We need to be a heckuva lot more than “cautious” these day.
For those of similiar feelings, read John Williams (MBA, entrepeneur, economic statistician in business for a quarter century). Real unemployment statistics are at his site, Shadow Stats. I can heartily recommend his recent article about what is really happening, what is about to happen, how fast, and how hard. Honest, independent, non-political economic analysis from a conservative 50 plus’er, IMHO.