New Nicaraguan sign language shows how language affects thought

Tuesday, July 20th, 2010

In the 1970s, a critical mass of deaf schoolchildren came together in Nicaragua’s new special-education schools, and they spontaneously developed Nicaraguan Sign Language, which quickly evolved — and this evolution allowed scientists to explore how language affects thought:

By studying children who learned NSL at various stages of its development, [Jennie Pyers from Wellesley College] has shown that the vocabulary they pick up affects the way they think. Specifically, those who learned NSL before it developed specific gestures for left and right perform more poorly on a spatial awareness test than children who grew up knowing how to sign those terms.

The idea that language affects thought isn’t new. It’s encapsulated by the ‘Sapir-Whorf hypothesis’, which suggests that differences in the languages we speak affect the way we think and behave. Typically, scientists test this link between language and thought by either comparing people who speak different languages, or by watching children as they, and their linguistic skills, develop. But both approaches have problems. Speakers of different languages also vary in many other ways that can affect the way they think, while growing children are also developing in many other aspects of their mental skills, which could confuse any effect of language alone.

But NSL cuts through both of these problems. Here is a language that was learned by successive waves of children whose mental skills were relatively mature, who all came from the same culture, and who all learned the language at the same age.

In most sign languages, signers map the positions of real-world objects using their hands, rather than using words like ‘left’, ‘inside’ or ‘over’. Someone signing a cat on a table would place one hand, representing a cat, over the other, representing the table, with no separate sign for ‘on’. The same works for left and right, with the added rule that usually, the signer represents the scene from their own perspective.

But NSL hasn’t quite got to that stage yet. In the first version developed in the 1970s, the children hadn’t settled on a consistent way of indicating left and right, and the locations of objects in their conversations are fairly ambiguous. The second group of children to expand NSL in the 1980s had more specific conventions for position.

Pyers compared the abilities of people from both groups, now fully grown adults, in two spatial tests. First, she led them into a small room with a single red wall. She hid a token in one corner of the room, blindfolded the children and spun them around until they lost their bearings. When she removed the blindfold, the children had to say where the token was. The second test, like the first, involved hiding a token in the corner of a room, but this time the room was a tabletop model that was rotated while the children were blindfolded.

In both tests, the second group of adults (who learned the more advanced form of NSL) outperformed the first group. Even though their memories and ability to understand the tasks were just as good, the expanded vocabulary of geographical gestures that they learned as children also gave them better spatial abilities well into adulthood.

By comparing the first group of NSL signers to typical children, Pyers also learned something about what’s going on in their heads. Children find the task easy and answer quickly but they often make mistakes. They’ll orient themselves to the geometry of the room, using the long and short walls to tell them where the token is. But they tend to ignore the red wall landmark so when they make mistakes, they usually go for the corner diagonally opposite to the correct one.

The first group of NSL signers were very different. They were more accurate, suggesting that their experience and maturity does at least count for something. Their mistakes are evenly distributed around the three other corners, suggesting that they use neither the landmark nor the room’s geometry to help them. And they took a long time over the test and said that they found it very difficult. They were aware of their own uncertainty, as adults often are, but they simply didn’t have a reliable mental map of the room and its hidden token.

Pyers explains, “The first-cohort signers find these tasks challenging because they do not have the language to encode the relevant aspects of the environment that would help them solve the spatial problem.” She added, “[They] did not have a consistent linguistic means to encode ‘left of’.”

This is a fascinating result, especially since the first group of adults were older and had been signing for a longer time. It’s clear evidence that our spatial reasoning skills depend, to an extent, on consistent spatial language. If we lack the right words, our mental abilities are limited in a way that extra life experience can’t fully compensate for. Even 30 years of navigating through the world won’t do the trick. And they may never catch up, even though the language they invented has advanced – after all, some studies with American Sign Language suggest that people who learn spatial terms later on in life never master them.

Suspicion of Religion with Sympathy for Its Rituals

Tuesday, July 20th, 2010

Alain do Botton looks at French sociologist Auguste Comte’s attempt to reconcile suspicion of religion with sympathy for its ritual:

One of the most fruitless questions that can be asked of religions is whether or not they are “true”. For the sake of argument and the flow of this article, let us simply assume from the start that they aren’t true in the supernatural sense. For a certain kind of atheist, this is the end of the story; but for those of a more ethnographic bent, it is clearly only a beginning. If we made up our gods to serve psychological needs, a study of these deities will tell us a crucial amount about what we require to preserve our sanity and balance, and will raise intriguing questions about how we are fulfilling the needs to which religions once catered.

Although we tend to think of atheists as not only unbelieving but also hostile to religion, there is a minor tradition of atheistic thinkers who have attempted to reconcile suspicion of religion with a sympathy for its ritualistic aspects. The most important and inspirational of these investigations was by the visionary, eccentric and only intermittently sane French 19th-century sociologist Auguste Comte.

Comte’s thinking on religion had as its starting point a characteristically blunt observation that, in the modern world, thanks to the discoveries of science, it would no longer be possible for anyone intelligent or robust to believe in God. Faith would henceforth be limited to the uneducated, the fanatical, women, children and those in the final months of incurable diseases. At the same time Comte recognised, as many of his more rational contemporaries did not, that a secular society devoted solely to financial accumulation and romantic love and devoid of any sources of consolation, transcendent awe or solidarity would be prey to untenable social and emotional ills.

Comte’s solution was neither to cling blindly to sacred traditions, nor to cast them collectively and belligerently aside, but rather to pick out their more relevant and secular aspects and fuse them with certain insights drawn from philosophy, art and science. The result, the outcome of decades of thought and the summit of Comte’s intellectual achievement, was a new religion: a religion for atheists, or, as he termed it, a religion of humanity.

Comte presented his new religion in two volumes, The Catechism of Positivism: Summary Exposition of the Universal Religion (1852) and the Theory of the Future of Man (1854). He observed that conventional faiths usually cemented their authority by providing people with daily (and even hourly) schedules of who or what to think about — rotas typically pegged to the commemoration of a holy individual or supernatural incident. So he announced a calendar of his own, animated by a pantheon of secular heroes and ideas. In the religion of humanity, every month would be devoted to the honouring of an important field of endeavour — for example, marriage, parenthood, art, science or agriculture — and every day to an individual who had made a valuable contribution within these categories.

Comte was impressed by the way in which established religions had disseminated moral guidance — dictating principles for how to conduct oneself in marriage, say, or fulfil one’s duties to the community — and he lamented that modern liberal governments, in their desire to prove inoffensive to all constituencies, had settled on merely offering factual instruction before letting people out into the world to destroy themselves and others through their egotism and self-ignorance. Therefore, in Comte’s religion of humanity, there were classes and sermons to help inspire one to be kind to spouses, patient with one’s colleagues and compassionate towards the unfortunate.

Because Comte appreciated the role that architecture had once played in bolstering the claims of old religion, he proposed the construction of a network of secular churches or, as he called them, temples of humanity. He suggested that each could be paid for by a banker, whose bust would appear above the door in recognition of his generosity. Inside the temples, there would be lectures, singing, celebrations and public discussions. Around the walls, sumptuous works of art would commemorate the greatest moments and finest men and women of history. Finally, above the west-facing stage, there would be an aphorism, written in large golden letters, invoking the congregation to adopt the essence of Comte’s philosophical-religious world-view: Connais-toi pour t’améliorer (“Know yourself to improve yourself”).

(Hat tip to Michael Nielsen.)

The Scientific Veneer

Monday, July 19th, 2010

Angelo Codevilla comes close to understanding America’s ruling class, Foseti says:

Here are a few quotes that almost get there: “for the sake of getting on the right side of history”… “By identifying science and reason with themselves, our rulers delegitimize opposition”… “Today’s ruling class, from Boston to San Diego, was formed by an educational system that exposed them to the same ideas and gave them remarkably uniform guidance, as well as tastes and habits.”

This point needs to be made very explicit. The ruling class of today is in power because of the historical successes of hard science. Nothing has a better record of revealing the truth than hard science. The hard sciences triumphed over religion during the last centuries and therefore, the systems of government that were embraced by religion were destroyed when religion fell to science.

The new ruling class then pulled a clever switcheroo. They cloaked various subjects that cannot be scientific with a veneer of science. Thus, the rulers can make it appear that their rule is the outcome of a scientific process. Unfortunately, this is impossible. The movement of falling bodies is amenable to scientific processes, the governance of people is not.

This scientific veneer allows the ruling class to claim truth. It therefore allows them to write history. Thus, no politicians will challenge the core beliefs of the ruling class as doing so will put them on “the wrong side of history.” The ruling class, after all, writes the history.

What’s your favorite Heinlein novel?

Monday, July 19th, 2010

Tor Books is about to release the first-ever authorized biography of Robert Heinlein, and they’ve asked a number of SF authors the obvious question, What’s your favorite Heinlein novel?.

David Brin picks a not-so-obvious answer, Beyond This Horizon:

I consider Robert Heinlein’s most fascinating novel to be his prescriptive utopia Beyond This Horizon. (A prescriptive utopia is where an author “prescribes” what he or she believes a better civilization would look like.) While Heinlein did opine, extensively, about society in many books, from Starship Troopers to Glory Road, it is in Beyond This Horizon (BTH) that you’ll find him clearly stating This Is The Way Things Ought To Be. And it turns out to be a fascinating, surprisingly nuanced view of our potential future.

I haven’t read Beyond This Horizon, but it seems like an odd mix of ideas: eugenics leading to superhumans with telepathy; an armed, and thus polite, society; a post-scarcity economy, where work has become optional; and reincarnation.

Apparently Heinlein’s approach to eugenics is now known as the Heinlein solution:

I was amazed by many other aspects of this wonderful book-within-a-book, especially by Heinlein’s startlingly simple suggestion for how to deal with the moral quandaries of genetic engineering — what’s now called the “Heinlein Solution” — to allow couples to select which sperm and ova they want to combine into a child, but to forbid actually altering the natural human genome. Thus, the resulting child, while “best” in many ways (free of any disease genes, etc), will still be one that the couple might have had naturally. Gradual human improvement, without any of the outrageously hubristic meddling that wise people rightfully fear. It is a proposal so insightful that biologists 40 years later are only now starting to discuss what may turn out to be Heinlein’s principal source of fame, centuries from now.

Robins can literally see magnetic fields

Monday, July 19th, 2010

Robins can literally see magnetic fields — but only if their right eye can see clearly:

Years of careful research have told us that the ability depends on light and particularly on the right eye and the left half of the brain. The details still aren’t quite clear but, for now, the most likely explanation involves a molecule called cryptochrome. Cryptochrome is found in the light-sensitive cells of a bird’s retina and scientists think that it affects just how sensitive those cells are.

When cryptochrome is struck by blue light, it shifts into an active state where it has an unpaired electron — these particles normally waltz in pairs but here, they dance solo. The same thing happens in a companion molecule called FAD. Together, cryptochrome and FAD, both with unpaired electrons, are known as a “radical pair”. Magnetic fields act upon the unpaired electrons and govern how long it takes for the radical pair to revert back to their normal, inactive state. And because cryptochrome affects the sensitivity of a bird’s retina, so do magnetic fields.

The upshot is that magnetic fields put up a filter of light or dark patches over what a bird normally sees. These patches change as the bird turns and tilts its head, providing it with a visual compass made out of contrasting shades.

To test the bounds of this ability, Stapput wanted to see what would happen if she blurred a robin’s vision. She outfitted her robins with somewhat unflattering goggles, with clear foil on one side and frosted foil on the other. Both allowed 70% of light to get through, but the frosted foil disrupted the clarity of the image.

The robins were kept in cages until they were ready to migrate and let loose in funnel-shaped cages lined with correction fluid. As they orientated themselves and changed course, they created scratches on the cage walls which told Stapput which direction they were heading in. These scratches revealed that with both eyes open, the robins flew straight north as they would normally do in the wild. If their left field of vision was frosted, they went the same way. But if their right eye was covered, they became disorientated, heading in completely random directions.

How To Get a New Air Force, Without Going Broke

Monday, July 19th, 2010

Noah Shachtman explains how to get a new air force, without going broke:

  1. Stop using expensive-to-fly B-1B bombers to do drones’ work.
  2. Scrap the Marines’ Harrier-like version of the Joint Strike Fighter.
  3. Invest in new weapons rather than new planes.
  4. Design a new long-range bomber.
  5. Pick a tanker, finally.

Some of the comments:

  • At this point, just count on everything in the air force being robots/drones 20 years from now: tankers, bombers, fighters, everything. Start all the programs from scratch with new requirements, and plan on holding a small manned fleet in reserve in case we have a Battlestar Galactica situation with the Chinese, mideast or Russian hackers.
  • I’ve often wondered why they haven’t paired GPS guided ground munitions (either artillery or rockets) with UAV targeting. It costs a lot of money and fuel to fly heavy ordinance around all the time just in case they need it. Why not keep it all on the ground, and keep unarmed long endurance, fuel-efficient, lightweight UAVs in the sky? If they had GPS guided shells, which I know they’ve been working on, and fire bases spread out across the country you could drop ordinance anywhere. You could have practically unlimited quantity and a wide variety of munitions (cluster, low-collateral damage, HE etc). This seems way more efficient and effective than wearing out billions of dollars of high tech aircraft taxiing around bombs that are usually never dropped.
  • One main comment: by focusing on hardware, you make yourself part of the problem. Ignoring processes, services and governance is what has gotten the USAF to the sorry state it is now in.
  • I was reading on BBC the other day (I forget exactly when), and the defense department had released the first robotic bomber (fighter bomber?). It looked fairly stealthy too. Said something along the lines of being able to pull many more G’s than a manned version. So basically in the future if you’re a fighter pilot, you don’t want to get anywhere close to the robotic craft. Therefore you’re going to be in a larger craft with missiles to fend off the robotic ones, keep them at range. Looks like the advantage of the human will be in making decisions that have to take other criteria into account, or deciding what is important when focusing attention on things. A human fighter pilot would then also have to manage a drove of drones in the space around his craft (friendly drones).
  • In the military there is one simple rule: “Use it or lose it”. Meaning that they fly the missions so that they burn enough fuel so that they dont lose that fuel for the next month. Trust me I was on AWACS (96-00) and that was a primary reason we flew so many unnecessary poorly coordinated training missions.
  • The independent AF was a post WW2 concept to support the concept of Strategic Bombing especially when bombers were the primary method of delivering nuclear weapons. Today the nuclear deterrent is delivered primarily by missiles, including a large number of weapons under Navy control. Really the main remaining mission for land based aircraft is to support the Army. Therefore, put the airplanes back in the Army, after all they claim to be the world’s largest AF anyway due to the helicopter fleet.

America’s Ruling Class

Monday, July 19th, 2010

Angelo Codevilla describes America’s ruling class:

Never has there been so little diversity within America’s upper crust. Always, in America as elsewhere, some people have been wealthier and more powerful than others. But until our own time America’s upper crust was a mixture of people who had gained prominence in a variety of ways, who drew their money and status from different sources and were not predictably of one mind on any given matter. The Boston Brahmins, the New York financiers, the land barons of California, Texas, and Florida, the industrialists of Pittsburgh, the Southern aristocracy, and the hardscrabble politicians who made it big in Chicago or Memphis had little contact with one another. Few had much contact with government, and “bureaucrat” was a dirty word for all. So was “social engineering.” Nor had the schools and universities that formed yesterday’s upper crust imposed a single orthodoxy about the origins of man, about American history, and about how America should be governed. All that has changed.

Today’s ruling class, from Boston to San Diego, was formed by an educational system that exposed them to the same ideas and gave them remarkably uniform guidance, as well as tastes and habits. These amount to a social canon of judgments about good and evil, complete with secular sacred history, sins (against minorities and the environment), and saints. Using the right words and avoiding the wrong ones when referring to such matters — speaking the “in” language — serves as a badge of identity. Regardless of what business or profession they are in, their road up included government channels and government money because, as government has grown, its boundary with the rest of American life has become indistinct. Many began their careers in government and leveraged their way into the private sector. Some, e.g., Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner, never held a non-government job. Hence whether formally in government, out of it, or halfway, America’s ruling class speaks the language and has the tastes, habits, and tools of bureaucrats. It rules uneasily over the majority of Americans not oriented to government.

(Hat tip to David Foster.)

Doing Business vs. Righteous Indignation

Sunday, July 18th, 2010

In moving from smoke-filled rooms to talk-filled rooms, our modern political system, Edward Banfield says, has become less effective in finding the terms on which people can act together and live together in peace:

The upper-class ideal recommends participation as intrinsically good, but unfortunately, the more participants there are, the larger the number of issues that must be dealt with and the greater the disagreements about each. The ideal also requires that issues be settled on their merits, not by logrolling, and that their merits be conceived of in terms of general moral principles that may not, under any circumstances, be compromised. In the smoke-filled room, it was party loyalty and private interest that mainly moved men; these motives alway permitted “doing business.” In the talk-filled room, righteous indignation is the main motive, and therefore the longer the talk continues, the clearer it becomes to each side that the other must either be shouted down or knocked down.

(From The Unheavenly City Revisited.)

The Social Science of German Gaming

Sunday, July 18th, 2010

Tim Harford (The Undercover Economist) visits the enormous board game convention in Essen, Germany:

Settlers [of Catan] is the game that brought “German-style” or “Eurogame” board games to the attention of an English-speaking audience. The board game market in Germany is more like the book market in other countries: several hundred new games are launched there every year — typically either at Essen’s Spiel convention in October or the Nuremberg Toy Festival in February — and each year, at least one new game will sell hundreds of thousands of copies, perhaps millions, as Settlers has. There are evergreen games, briefly fashionable sensations and flops.

“There are two schools of thought as to why the Germans love board games,” says Martin Wallace of Warfrog. “The Germans are of the opinion that it’s down to their superior education system. We English are of the opinion that it’s because German TV is shite.”

There are, in fact, many more than two schools of thought about why Germany is the world’s board game superpower. It could be the enthusiasm of the citizens. In a country such as Britain, it is downright odd to pull a board game out of a cupboard and offer to teach it to friends alongside after-dinner coffee. In Germany, people do that and more. They discuss old games and act as evangelists for new ones. Naturally, the games are better as a result.

The cause could also be Germany’s pluralistic gaming tradition: most countries play games, but German gaming has never been dominated by a single game — unlike Japan (Go) or Russia (chess). But it could also be the influence of a single pioneer, Erwin Glonnegger. Born in southern Germany in 1925, Glonnegger joined the publisher Ravensburger after the war, where he became its first board game “editor”, working with designers through the 1950s and 1960s to produce a series of elegant games now considered timeless.

By the late 1960s and early 1970s, German newspapers were running columns about “family games”. There may have been a social motive — board games were, and still are, regarded as a wholesome activity — but the columns reflected the genuine enthusiasm of mainstream journalists who persuaded their editors to let them moonlight as game critics. In 1978, those enthusiasts decided to create an award, the Spiel des Jahres (Game of the Year). The first prize was handed out in 1979, to Hare & Tortoise — ironically, an import from England.
[...]
In a makeshift office tucked away behind one of the stands, I met Jay Tummelson, who has done more than anyone to bring Eurogames to the rest of the world. A likeable, fast-talking and opinionated American in his mid-sixties, Tummelson owns the company Rio Grande Games. Its stand is almost as large as those of the industry giants, the Ravensburgers and Mattels, but there are no 20ft signs, stages, or gantries.

The stripped-down approach is emblematic of Tummelson’s business model, which is to produce a vast range of gamer-friendly, no-frills translations of German games for the English market. He does business with all the major German publishers, accepting their game design and artwork, sharing their production costs and adding his own English print run to the end of theirs — typically producing 2,000 English versions on top of the 5,000 German originals. Tummelson throws these games into a growing market and reprints at much larger volumes whenever he has a hit on his hands. And he’s had quite a few hits. Before founding Rio Grande Games, Tummelson imported Settlers — and he is responsible for producing the English versions of most recent Spiel des Jahres winners.

(When I met him, Tummelson was launching his first non-translated product, a fast-moving card game called Dominion. It was the talk of Essen and this English-language import promptly won Spiel des Jahres 30 years on from Hare & Tortoise.)

When I suggest to Tummelson that he has, almost single-handedly, brought German games to the rest of the world, he demurs. “I played my part, but the internet was by far and away the most important thing.” German games’ successes may depend on personal recommendations, but in the UK and the US, gamers are spread too thin to speak to one another directly. Ironically, rather than wiping out board games, computers have provided the connections for once-isolated games in the UK and US to swap ideas online and meet up over the gaming table.

(Hat tip to Bryan Caplan.)

Vibration-Powered Generators Replace AA, AAA Batteries

Saturday, July 17th, 2010

Brother Industries has developed small vibration-powered generators that can replace AA and AAA batteries:

Specifically, the generator can be used for a device that does not always consume electricity and has a power consumption of about 100mW, the company said. For example, the power consumption of a normal remote is 40 to 100mW.

This time, Brother Industries prototyped the generator in AA and AAA sizes. Inside a battery-shaped case, there are an electromagnetic induction generator and an electric double layer capacitor with a capacitance of about 500mF. The average output of the AA-size generator is 10 to 180mW (frequency: 4-8Hz).

Always Have Something to Say

Saturday, July 17th, 2010

In our modern political system, Edward Banfield says, the politician, like the TV news commentator, must always have something to say — even when nothing urgently needs to be said:

If he lived in a society without problems, he would have to invent some (and of course “solutions” along with them) in order to attract attention and to kindle the interest and enthusiasm needed to carry him into office and enable him, once there, to levy taxes and do the other unpopular things of which governing largely consists.

Although in the society that actually exists there are many problems, there are still not enough — enough about which anyone can say or do anything very helpful — to meet his constant need from program material. Moreover, the real and important problems are not necessarily the ones that people want to hear about; a politician may be able to attract more attention and create more enthusiasm — and thus better serve his purpose, which is to generate power with which to take office and govern — by putting real problems in an unreal light or by presenting illusory ones as if they were real.

The politician (again like the TV news commentator) can never publicly discuss an important matter with the seriousness that it deserves; time is short, ifs, ands, and buts make tedious listening, and there are always some in the audience who will be confused or offended by what is said and others who will try to twist it into a weapon that they can use against the speaker. Besides, the deeper a discussion goes, the less likelihood of reaching an outcome that the politician can use to generate support.

(From The Unheavenly City Revisited.)

Jihad Monkeys

Friday, July 16th, 2010

When Next Media Animation’s CGI recreation of Tiger Woods’ car crash became an Internet sensation, we had to know they’d make more.

Now NMA has produced a video depicting the People’s Daily‘s ludicrous claim that the Taliban are training monkeys to shoot AK-47s:

The American Will Not Live Near His Work

Friday, July 16th, 2010

When I recently mentioned commuting before cars, David Foster added a link to his own post citing Charles M. Skinner’s 1902 Atlantic piece, The American Will Not Live Near His Work, which was reprinted in Richard Rhodes’ Visions of Technology. Here is how Skinner ends his short essay:

On one point the American is determined; he will not live near his work. You shall see him in the morning, one of sixty people in a car built for twenty-four, reading his paper, clinging to a strap, trodden, jostled, smirched, thrown into harrowing relations with men who drink whiskey, chew tobacco, eat raw onions, and incontinently breathe; and after thirty minutes of this contact, with the roar of the streets in his ears, with languid clerks and pinguid market women leaning against him, he arrives at his office. The problems of his homeward journey in the evening will be still more difficult, because, in addition to the workers, the cars must carry the multitude of demoiselles who shop and go to matinees.

To many men and women of business a seat is an undreamed luxury. Yet, they would be insulted if one were to ask why they did not live over their shops, as Frenchmen do, or back of them, like Englishmen. It is this uneasy instinct of Americans, this desire of their families to separate industrial and social life, that makes the use of the trolley car imperative, and the street railway in this manner widens the life and dominion of the people; it enables them to distribute themselves over wider spaces and unwittingly to symbolize the expansiveness of the nation.

(In case you don’t see the word pinguid every day, it means fat, oily, or greasy.)

Regulated by Talk

Friday, July 16th, 2010

Middle-class-ification has made public opinion more perverse, Edward Banfield argues, and more important:

Half a century or more ago, the basis of city and state political power — and therefore, to a large extent, of national political power as well — was the machine. The bosses who ran it kept themselves in power by dispensing patronage and by trading in ethnic, sectional, and party loyalties, and therefore could pretty well disregard public opinion when it suited them to do so.

Middle- and upper-class-ification rendered this system obsolete and brought into being one in which the politician, in order to compete successfully for office, has to combine offers of benefits to classes of voters (homeowners, taxpayers, and so on) with appeals to general ideas and conceptions of the public interest. Whereas the old system had promised personal rewards, the new one promises social reforms.

Accordingly, the smoke-filled room was replaced with the talk-filled one: “The amount of talk which is now expended on all subjects of human interest is something of which a previous age has had not the smallest conception,” E.L. Godkin remarked at the end of the last [19th] century, adding that “the affairs of nations and of men will be more and more regulated by talk.” But even Godkin, since he did not anticipate television, had not the smallest conception of the extent to which affairs would be regulated by talk in our day.

(From The Unheavenly City Revisited.)

Hail Survivalists

Friday, July 16th, 2010

While survivalists do society a great good, Robin Hanson says, the media mostly snickers at them:

This makes sense when you realize: Charity Isn’t About Help. Given a choice between praising acts that show devotion and loyalty, or acts that actually help, humans usually praise loyalty.
[...]
On average, survivalists tend to display undesirable characteristics. They tend to have extreme and unrealistic opinions, that disaster soon has an unrealistically high probability. They also show disloyalty and a low opinion of their wider society, by suggesting it is due for a big disaster soon. They show disloyalty to larger social units, by focusing directly on saving their own friends and family, rather than focusing on saving those larger social units. And they tend to be cynics, with all that implies.