The jobs of tomorrow are not what you’d expect, Michael Lind says:
Since the beginning of the industrial revolution more than two centuries ago, sectors that have adopted labor-saving machinery have shed labor to other sectors. The mechanization of agriculture and mining — “primary production” — freed up labor for factories. Increasing productivity in the “secondary production” like manufacturing, by allowing one person with advanced technology to do the work of dozens, freed up workers who were then employed in “tertiary production” — office work and business services that support primary and secondary production. Thus the evolutionary progression, from yeoman farmer to factory worker… to Dilbert in his cubicle.With the ruthlessness of Skynet in The Terminator,computerization in the tertiary sector is now committing mass Dilberticide, replacing receptionists with automated phone systems and travel agents with services like Priceline. The emptying of the cubicles won’t result in permanent mass unemployment, the present prolonged crisis notwithstanding. As it has always done in the past, labor will shift from more mechanized to less mechanized sectors. But what will those jobs be?
We already know the answer.
The most numerous and stable jobs of tomorrow will be those that cannot be offshored, because they must be performed on U.S. soil, and also cannot be automated, either because they require a high degree of creativity or because they rely on the human touch in face-to-face interactions. The latter are sometimes called “proximity services” and they include the fastest-growing occupations, healthcare and education.
Most job growth in the last decade has been concentrated in three sectors: healthcare, education and government, mostly state and local government. Since the recession began, healthcare has added 559,000 jobs. Even more remarkable, the average monthly gain of 22,000 jobs during 2009 has been only slightly lower than the average increase of 30,000 jobs a month in 2008.
Last July, in a study titled “Preparing the Workers of Today for the Jobs of Tomorrow,” the Council of Economic Advisers predicted that between 2008 and 2016 employment will decline in manufacturing, retail and wholesale, business and financial services and other sectors. Public-sector employment will remain steady, and there will be growth in transportation and utilities and construction. The greatest job growth, according to the White House, will be in the health and education sectors. Healthcare-related jobs make up seven out of the 20 fastest-growing occupations, and 14 out of the 20 fastest-growing jobs. The fastest-growing occupations are home health aides and registered nurses.
I don’t think the public sector is growing because it offers proximity services.