Isegoria

Bryan Caplan sees modernity as a children’s paradise, as demonstrated by youth mortality statistics:

From these numbers, he argues that the “television reality” painted by Leave It to Beaver versus Law and Order: Special Victims Unit gets it all wrong:

Overall, today is much safer than 1950. That’s probably no surprise to anyone who knows basic economic history. What’s particularly interesting is that safety gains are especially large for younger kids. The mortality rate for kids under 5 was almost five times greater in 1950, 3.7 times greater for kids 5-14, and 2.2 times greater for 15-24 year olds.

I suspect that many people will object, “Yes, but if you break the results down by cause of death, modernity is worse in both homicide and suicide – two out of the five categories.” My reply: All modernity has done is roughly double two vivid near-zero risks. In exchange, we are vastly safer from the formerly quantitatively fearsome risks of disease, accidents, and war.

Bottom line: Modernity delivers the children’s paradise that the fifties only promised. Maybe the nation’s parents should try turning off their televisions for a minute of gratitude that they aren’t Ward and June Cleaver?

I don’t see how it would come as any surprise to anyone — aware of economic history or not — that deaths from disease and accidents are down, while deaths from homicide and suicide are up. That’s the common wisdom, after all. Technology keeps improving, as the social fabric slowly unravels.

The only surprise might be the magnitudes of the changes.

Also, it’s a bit disingenuous to use 1950 for war deaths, when a year earlier or a few years later would show roughly zero deaths from war.

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