The road to economic hell is paved with good intentions and bad banks

Friday, March 6th, 2009

The road to economic hell is paved with good intentions and bad banks, says Simon Johnson:

Emerging market crises are marked by an increase in tunneling — i.e., borderline legal/illegal smuggling of value out of businesses. As time horizons become shorter, employees have less incentive to protect shareholder value and are more inclined to help out friends or prepare a soft exit for themselves.

Boris Fyodorov, the late Russian Minister of Finance who struggled for many years against corruption and the abuse of authority, could be blunt. Confusion helps the powerful, he argued. When there are complicated government bailout schemes, multiple exchange rates, or high inflation, it is very hard to keep track of market prices and to protect the value of firms. The result, if taken to an extreme, is looting: the collapse of banks, industrial firms, and other entities because the insiders take the money (or other valuables) and run.

This is the prospect now faced by the United States.

(Hat tip to Arnold Kling, who says, Read it now.)

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