In his last column for PBS, Cringely makes his usual predictions for the coming year, and he notes that most recessions mean new IT platforms:
The minicomputer hit its stride in the early ’70s recession, the PC in the early ’80s recession, client-server computing in the early ’90s recession (notice these things happen every 10 years or so?), the Internet in the 2001 recession, and now we’re about to see mobile take over in an even bigger way. Desktops will survive but most of the growth will be in mobile devices.
He also makes a prediction about venture capital that echos a thought I’ve been mulling:
While investments in technology will continue, the really smart VCs will realize there is a much better and more certain way to make a ton of money in the short term: start a bank. Look for the rebirth of community banks, in this case backed by VCs. Work with me on this one. There is no credit available because the big banks won’t lend. But it takes only about $20 million to start a very fine little bank that WILL loan money because the cash can be acquired from the Fed for almost nothing and lent at high rates to technology companies that can pay it back. By creating banks the technology industry will become self-funding. And when the big banks finally stop being frozen with fear and want to take back the lending business, they’ll have to buy all those little banks for at least a 10X multiple. It’s not like starting Cisco or Dell, but a 10-bagger business model that can be replicated over and over again while actually helping the nation can’t fail.