The Economist notes that many discredited technologies are not dead, just resting:
It became a classic example of a techno-Utopian prophecy gone awry. The notion of the “paperless office”, which dates back to the 1960s, sounded plausible enough. As computers began to spread and display technology improved, it seemed obvious that more and more documents would be written, distributed and read in electronic form, rather than on paper. Filing cabinets would give way to hard disks, memos and reports would be distributed electronically and paper invoices and purchase orders would be replaced by electronic messages whizzing between accounts departments.
What actually happened was that global consumption of office paper more than doubled in the last two decades of the 20th century, as digital technology made printing cheaper and easier than ever before. Not even the rise of the internet stemmed the tide. The web’s billions of pages provided a vast new source of fodder for the world’s humming printers. Although e-mail did away with much paper-based correspondence, some older, technophobic bosses insisted on having their e-mails printed out so they could scribble their responses in pen for their secretaries to type in and send off.Yet the prediction seems to be coming true at last. American office workers’ use of paper has actually been in decline since 2001. What changed? The explanation seems to be sociological rather than technological. A new generation of workers, who have grown up with e-mail, word processing and the internet, feel less of a need to print documents out than their older colleagues did. Offices are still far from paperless, but the trend is clear. So does this mean that other apparently discredited technological prophecies might also benefit from a similar reversal of fortune?
Note the amusing units on that graph: pounds per white-collar worker.
The article suggest three ways for a discredited technology to make a comeback:
- The aforementioned sociological shift, where the technology may not change much, but its users change.
- Straightforward technological improvement, like the wide availability of broadband Internet connections, which weren’t available as quickly as Web 1.0 companies hoped.
- An external shock, like the recent spike in oil prices, which has pushed hybrids and electric cars into the lime light.
The conclusion:
Make an electronic note to yourself: remember the paperless office and never say never.