Early Computers and Spreadsheets

Wednesday, September 17th, 2008

Jack Crenshaw explores the really early days of computing, including the first computers and early spreadsheets:

As in college, a lot of our output in those days were graphs, and again a large part of our skill was our ability to plot microscopic dots at the right places on a piece of log-log paper, and then fair a smooth curve through them. Back in college, we tended to plot graphs with anywhere from three to seven points on them, but NASA needed much more accuracy. So a lot of our time went into calculating the data for the many points to be plotted. And that’s where I learned about spreadsheets.

These were the original spreadsheets, of course — real sheets of 14″ x 17″ paper, ruled into rows and columns. What we did was to organize the “input” data into one or more columns. Each subsequent column involved operations on previous columns. If you’ve ever used Excel, I don’t have to explain further.

For simple problems with not too many entries, and for problems not needing great accuracy, we would use the good ol’ 18″ slide rule. For more complex problems, we would use the book of trig functions and the Friden.

For really long problems, we used Donna.

Donna was the department secretary, who doubled as a calculator operator. Donna supported some seven engineers, and had the patience of Job. She would sit there all day, day after day, crunching out those numbers, which we would then plot up and analyze. Donna prided herself on using 10-digit accuracy for everything, even if the input data was only good to three digits. If any errors were going to be introduced, it wasn’t going to be at her end.

One day I got a really big problem — one that seemed too big even for Donna to deal with, considering her other duties. I asked a colleague, “What do you do with problems that are too big for Donna?” He said, very matter of factly, “Oh, you take them to the Computer Room.”

You should have seen my eyes light up. I had been reading all about the “Giant Brains” — had even learned to program one in college, though I never saw it (the school didn’t actually own one). I couldn’t wait to see how the folks in the Computer Room dealt with my problem. Eagerly I got directions from my colleague, prepared my data and rushed over to the building he described. Following his directions, I walked down the hall until I arrived at a set of double doors, with a large sign proclaiming, sure enough, “Computer Room.” From the other side of the door came a satisfying clattering of high-tech machinery, hard at work.

Holding my breath, I eased open the door.

Inside was a huge room. There must have been 300 desks, all arranged neatly in rows. At each desk sat a woman, and on each desk was a Friden. The women were the computers! I kid you not (sorry, no men were there).

I found out later that their official job description was “GS-2, Computer.”


Once I had gotten over the shock, I approached the “head computer.” She explained to me how things worked. You used the same spreadsheet format we used — and still use today — except that each column only involved a single math operation. If, for example, the first two columns were the inputs, x and y, then the header for column three might read: (3) = (1) * (2).

After all the calculations were defined, you turned things over to the computers who filled the numbers in. The foreperson assigned different parts of the job to different women, depending on the load. For a really big job, she would keep several parts running in parallel. The first multitasking, multiprocessing computer system, I suppose.

It all actually went quite smoothly. The computers rarely made a mistake, and they used redundant calculation to catch any errors. They would even plot the results up for me, although I rarely used that service. My boss grumbled that they used dull pencils and didn’t know how to interpolate. He and I both found that we could plot more accurately.

Sometime after they’d moved on to “real” (non-human) computers, Jack’s colleague came to him with an exciting idea:

He said, “Jack, I’ve come up with a neat computer program that I’d like you to take a look at.”

“OK, John,” I said. “What does it do?”

“Well,” he replied, “Remember back in the good old days when we had to do computing by hand? Remember the way we used to make up those spreadsheets and turn them over to the computer ladies?”

I acknowledged that I had. We spent a little time congratulating ourselves for our progress, at having gotten away from such primitive methods.

John said, “Well, I’ve developed a computer program that works the same way. All you have to do is to define the formulas for each column of the spreadsheet and give the data. The computer does the calculations just like the computer ladies used to do and gives you a printout that looks just like a spreadsheet. I think it’ll be just the ticket for those people who don’t know how to program in FORTRAN. It will open up the use of computers to lots more people.”

I thought about it for all of 30 seconds, and said, “John, that’s the dumbest idea I’ve ever heard.”

There was a moment of silence as John absorbed what I had just said. The sparkle in his eyes dimmed a bit. Crestfallen, he whispered, “Why?”

Now, in my defense you have to understand: in those days we were taught that computer time was precious — $600 per hour, at a time when $600 would buy more than a ticket to a rock concert. It was important, we were told, to keep the CPU busy doing productive work at all times. It was considered far more cost-effective to waste engineers’ time than computer time.

So I explained, “John, now that we have electronic computers, we have to learn to do things their way. Anybody who plans to be an engineer in the ’60s is going to have to learn to speak to computers in their language. You and I have learned to program so we can do that. What you’re trying to do is to ask the computer to make up for the deficiencies of the engineer. You’re forcing the computer to do extra work, just because the engineer is too lazy or too dumb to learn the computer’s language. You’re never going to sell an idea that uses a computer so inefficiently!”

As I spoke, you could see John slowly fall apart. His jaw fell slack, his shoulders slumped, and he actually seemed to age by years, right before my eyes. Finally he turned and left, a beaten and broken man.

I never saw John again. He sent me an example of the output of his program (I recall that it could do automatic graphing of its results, which was quite an innovation at the time). I promptly filed it under “dumb ideas.” I heard through the grapevine that John kept trying for awhile, halfheartedly, to interest someone in his spreadsheet program, but as I had predicted he was never able to do so, and he faded into obscurity, along with his program.

And that’s why you had to wait 15 more years for VisiCalc, Lotus 1-2-3, and Excel.

The US government supports Israel, right?

Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

The US government supports Israel, right? Mencius Moldbug isn’t so sure:

At present, however — that is, in the real world, where [the US government] supports Israel — the expectation appears to be that all disputes will be resolved via Israeli concessions. The only dispute appears to be on the magnitude of these concessions. “Land for peace” is a fairly normal way to end a war — for example, France in 1870 accepted the proposition of “land for peace,” ceding Alsace-Lorraine to Germany. On the other hand, France in 1870 had been defeated. Whereas Israel in 1967 was, at least according to all reliable experts, victorious.

So we arrive at a peculiar conclusion. On the one hand, [the US government] supports Israel. On the other hand, if [the US government] ceased to exist, at least for the purposes of the Middle East, Israel’s position seems as if it would become much stronger. A conclusion that would seem to indicate that [the US government] opposes Israel. But then, why would it give Israel billions of dollars and fancy weapons?

We are left to conclude that (a) [the US government] both supports and opposes Israel; (b) the magnitude of the opposition exceeds the magnitude of the support (implying net opposition); and (c) the support is overt and obvious, whereas the opposition is somehow… more subtle.

In other words, we are in the position of an astronomer who sees light being bent away from a large visible object. The astronomer must conclude that unless the laws of gravity are reversed in the vicinity of this object, there is an even larger non-visible object on the other side of the light. The latter can be detected only by inference, but the detection remains unambiguous.

Israel makes a great pons asinorum because in this case, the diplomatic dark matter is not at all hard to find. Perhaps it is best explained by the title of this book, which I saw in a window somewhere. According to the author or at least his title, [the US government] is acting as a “dishonest broker” in the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Ie: “justice” in the conflict favors the Palestinians more than [the US government]‘s actions today reflect. Ie: [the US government] is pro-Israel, but not in the sense that [the US government]‘s interventions in the Middle East are a net positive for Israel. Actually, they are detrimental to Israel. But if “justice” were served, they would be even more detrimental.

So if I sue you for $100,000 and the judge awards me $20,000, I might say that the judge is biased in favor of you. Because you still have $80,000 that is rightfully mine. On the other hand, it’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that the judge forced you to pay me $20,000. Which is $20,000 you’d have and I wouldn’t, if there was no judge at all. An interesting kind of support.

America, you see, is not really the vampire of the world. The analogy is inexact in two ways. One, a vampire is nourished by the blood of his victims. They grow weak and sickly, while he thrives in ruddy good health. Two, it is always easy to know that a vampire has been eatin’ on you, because there are fang-marks on your neck.

America is more the arsonist of the world. As well as the fireman. Wherever fires break out, Uncle Sam is there to pour gasoline on them. The fireman assures us, of course, that he is only setting a backfire to defeat the main blaze. But why is this always the right strategy? Why was he the first one on the scene? Why do his hoses always seem to get tangled, whereas his gas can never runs dry? And why have there been so many more fires since he came to town? But the TV audience sees none of this. All they see is the fireman, fighting the fires.

Some Words with a Mummy

Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

I started my Halloween-themed reading early, I suppose, when I decided to read a few short stories by Poe, including a satire of his that I’d never read, Some Words with a Mummy, in which a group of Egyptologists apply some electricity from a “Voltaic pile” to an ancient mummy in their possession — and the mummy, which has not had its brain and entrails removed, comes back to life:

Morally and physically — figuratively and literally — was the effect electric. In the first place, the corpse opened its eyes and winked very rapidly for several minutes, as does Mr. Barnes in the pantomime, in the second place, it sneezed; in the third, it sat upon end; in the fourth, it shook its fist in Doctor Ponnonner’s face; in the fifth, turning to Messieurs Gliddon and Buckingham, it addressed them, in very capital Egyptian, thus:

“I must say, gentlemen, that I am as much surprised as I am mortified at your behaviour. Of Doctor Ponnonner nothing better was to be expected. He is a poor little fat fool who knows no better. I pity and forgive him. But you, Mr. Gliddon — and you, Silk — who have travelled and resided in Egypt until one might imagine you to the manner born — you, I say who have been so much among us that you speak Egyptian fully as well, I think, as you write your mother tongue — you, whom I have always been led to regard as the firm friend of the mummies — I really did anticipate more gentlemanly conduct from you. What am I to think of your standing quietly by and seeing me thus unhandsomely used? What am I to suppose by your permitting Tom, Dick, and Harry to strip me of my coffins, and my clothes, in this wretchedly cold climate? In what light (to come to the point) am I to regard your aiding and abetting that miserable little villain, Doctor Ponnonner, in pulling me by the nose?”

The mummy explains that his people’s natural lifespan is hundreds of years, and that he was embalmed specifically so that he could be revived again later, to live his life in installments, across more than one millennium, which surprises the modern men, who assume that ancient Egypt was primitive:

“The long duration of human life in your time, together with the occasional practice of passing it, as you have explained, in installments, must have had, indeed, a strong tendency to the general development and conglomeration of knowledge. I presume, therefore, that we are to attribute the marked inferiority of the old Egyptians in all particulars of science, when compared with the moderns, and more especially with the Yankees, altogether to the superior solidity of the Egyptian skull.”

“I confess again,” replied the Count, with much suavity, “that I am somewhat at a loss to comprehend you; pray, to what particulars of science do you allude?”

Here our whole party, joining voices, detailed, at great length, the assumptions of phrenology and the marvels of animal magnetism.

The satire gets interesting when it moves away from technology and the sci-fi premise that the Egyptians did in fact have higher technology than then-modern “Yankees”:

This disconcerted us so greatly that we thought it advisable to vary the attack to Metaphysics. We sent for a copy of a book called the “Dial,” and read out of it a chapter or two about something that is not very clear, but which the Bostonians call the Great Movement of Progress.

The Count merely said that Great Movements were awfully common things in his day, and as for Progress, it was at one time quite a nuisance, but it never progressed.

We then spoke of the great beauty and importance of Democracy, and were at much trouble in impressing the Count with a due sense of the advantages we enjoyed in living where there was suffrage ad libitum, and no king.

He listened with marked interest, and in fact seemed not a little amused. When we had done, he said that, a great while ago, there had occurred something of a very similar sort. Thirteen Egyptian provinces determined all at once to be free, and to set a magnificent example to the rest of mankind. They assembled their wise men, and concocted the most ingenious constitution it is possible to conceive. For a while they managed remarkably well; only their habit of bragging was prodigious. The thing ended, however, in the consolidation of the thirteen states, with some fifteen or twenty others, in the most odious and insupportable despotism that was ever heard of upon the face of the Earth.

I asked what was the name of the usurping tyrant.

As well as the Count could recollect, it was Mob.

Excellent election-year reading, that.

Nicotine is largely harmless

Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

Nicotine is largely harmless, but cigarettes are lethal. It’s not surprising that Britain’s Royal College of Physicians wants to curb — kerb? — smoking, but it is surprising that they’re willing to promote safer forms of tobacco:

This week, the Marlboro cigarette empire Altria bought the USA’s biggest maker of chewing tobacco, UST, for $10.4bn (£5.8bn). The deal confirms the tobacco industry’s interest in diversifying out of cigarettes into “smokeless” products. UST makes Skoal — tea bag-like pouches of tobacco that are held between the cheek and gum, allowing nicotine to be absorbed.

British American Tobacco is also investing heavily in the search for safer ways to deliver nicotine. BAT paid £2bn to take control of the Swedish company ST, which makes Snus — also pouches of tobacco for sucking.

Evidence suggests that sucking a pouch of tobacco is 90 per cent less harmful than inhaling cigarette smoke. But the products are banned in the EU on the grounds that they are, er, carcinogenic, and that to replace one carcinogen with another, albeit one less lethal, is unwise.

“Nicotine is the closest we are likely to get to the perfect drug”:

Its effects are diverse; it stimulates, calms and enhances feelings of pleasure, but has few side effects. Its great advantage over other drugs is that its effects are mild. It is pleasurable only within a narrow range of concentrations in the blood. That is what makes it safe.

Only the instrument of its delivery — the cigarette — is lethal. A device that delivers nicotine quickly, efficiently and safely could earn a fortune. But regulations on the sale of medicinal nicotine are so tight that they keep prices high — seven days’ worth of nicotine patches costs £17 — and the development of innovative products low.

Professor John Britton, consultant respiratory physician and chief author of the RCP report, said: “The ideal product would be a nicotine inhaler like an asthma inhaler, that delivered a hit of nicotine as close as possible to the experience of smoking a cigarette.

“But the companies [makers of nicotine gum and patches] don’t want to do it and the regulatory restrictions make it difficult to get it on to the market. There is no competition. That is why we need a Nicotine Regulatory Authority.”

The anomaly in the existing law is glaring. Tobacco companies are permitted to sell nicotine to the public in the form of (lethal) cigarettes, yet it is illegal to sell alternative nicotine products without a licence.

Why Feminists Hate Sarah Palin

Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

Cathy Young explores Why Feminists Hate Sarah Palin:

Left-wing feminists have a hard time dealing with strong, successful conservative women in politics such as Margaret Thatcher. Sarah Palin seems to have truly unhinged more than a few, eliciting a stream of vicious, often misogynist invective.

On Salon.com last week, Cintra Wilson branded her a “Christian Stepford Wife” and a “Republican blow-up doll.” Wendy Doniger, religion professor at the University of Chicago Divinity School, added on the Washington Post blog, “Her greatest hypocrisy is in her pretense that she is a woman.”

You’d think that, whether or not they agree with her politics, feminists would at least applaud Mrs. Palin as a living example of one of their core principles: a woman’s right to have a career and a family. Yet some feminists unabashedly suggest that her decision to seek the vice presidency makes her a bad and selfish mother. Others argue that she is bad for working mothers because she’s just too good at having it all.

In the Boston Globe on Friday, columnist Ellen Goodman frets that Mrs. Palin is a “supermom” whose supporters “think a woman can have it all as long as she can do it all . . . by herself.” In fact, Sarah Palin is doing it with the help of her husband Todd, who is currently on leave from his job as an oil worker. But Ms. Goodman’s problem is that “she doesn’t need anything from anyone outside the family. She isn’t lobbying for, say, maternity leave, equal pay, or universal pre-K.”

This also galls Katherine Marsh, writing in the latest issue of The New Republic. Mrs. Palin admits to having “an incredible support system — a husband with flexible jobs rather than a competing career . . . and a host of nearby grandparents, aunts, and uncles.” Yet, Ms. Marsh charges, she does not endorse government policies to help less-advantaged working mothers — for instance, by promoting day-care centers.

Mrs. Palin’s marriage actually makes her a terrific role model. One of the best choices a woman can make if she wants a career and a family is to pick a partner who will be able to take on equal or primary responsibility for child-rearing. Our culture still harbors a lingering perception that such men are less than manly — and who better to smash that stereotype than “First Dude” Todd Palin?

Nevertheless, when Sarah Palin offered a tribute to her husband in her Republican National Convention speech, New York Times columnist Judith Warner read this as a message that she is “subordinate to a great man.” Perhaps the message was a brilliant reversal of the old saw that behind every man is a great woman: Here, the great woman is out in front and the great man provides the support. Isn’t that real feminism?

Not to Ms. Marsh, who insists that feminism must demand support for women from the government. In this worldview, advocating more federal subsidies for institutional day care is pro-woman; advocating tax breaks or regulatory reform that would help home-based care providers — preferred by most working parents — is not. Trying to legislate away the gender gap in earnings (which no self-respecting economist today blames primarily on discrimination) is feminist. Expanding opportunities for part-time and flexible jobs is “the Republican Party line.”

I disagree with Sarah Palin on a number of issues, including abortion rights. But when the feminist establishment treats not only pro-life feminism but small-government, individualist feminism as heresy, it writes off multitudes of women.

Of course, being a feminist role model is not part of the vice president’s job description, and there are legitimate questions about Mrs. Palin’s qualifications. And yet, like millions of American women — and men — I find her can-do feminism infinitely more liberated than the what-can-the-government-do-for-me brand espoused by the sisterhood.

Into the Space Age

Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

In discussing the really early days of computing, Jack Crenshaw explains what it meant to move into the Space Age:

After college, I went to work for the space agency, NASA. I was going to help put men on the moon (which I did). My first day, I received the two tools of my trade: an 18-inch government-issue slide rule and a book of five-place trig tables.

See, NASA figured that the three-digit accuracy of the standard 10-inch slide rule just wouldn’t cut it for space travel. In general, to get one more digit of accuracy you need a slide rule 10 times longer. But it just happened that the 10″ rule could almost get four digits (it could, over part of its range), so that increasing the length to 18″ was just enough to get that precious extra digit.

Even more exciting, NASA had real desktop calculators! Electro-mechanical ones, which were sort of adding machines on steroids.

There were a number of brands around. Ours were Fridens. The Friden was a huge machine by today’s standards — as big as an old standard typewriter and much, much heavier. Inside were hundreds of little gears and levers that would drive a Swiss watchmaker into paroxysms of ecstasy.

The Friden worked much like the adding machines used for businesses, except it would multiply and divide, as well as add and subtract. There was a keyboard having 10 columns of 10 digit keys, and a carriage like a typewriter. On the carriage were numbered wheels that spun. You typed a number in by punching (that’s the right word — no electronics or power-assist here) one key in each column, and then punched the “go” key. To the accompaniment of the noise of a threshing machine, the carriage slewed, the wheels spun, and in a matter of decaseconds, there was your answer. Division was quite a sight to behold, and on those few machines that could do square roots, the noise level rose alarmingly as more and more wheels got into the act.

But most of us didn’t have access to the square root machines, and a measure of your proficiency with a Friden was how quickly you could find a square root on a non-square-root Friden. There was a neat algorithm for it that I’ve never forgotten (no, it’s not Newton’s method, it’s an exact, noniterative algorithm). I also learned the famous “Friden March,” a calculation that caused the carriage to chunk along in a neat, “rah, rah, rah-rah-rah” rhythm.

Despite the horrible noises emitted by the Fridens — sounds reminiscent of the clashing of a nonsynchromesh truck transmission — it always gave reliable answers. Over a period of five or six years, I never once saw a Friden give a wrong answer.

The big advantage of the Friden, other than its tendency to get the correct answer, was that we could calculate to as many as 10 digits of accuracy — unheard of until then. But most of our calculations were done to only five digits or so, because that’s as many as were in the trig tables. Later I managed to get a book of six-place tables. It was a big book.

Looking back upon the space race and all the high-tech things that were involved in it, helps to remember that, at least through projects Mercury and Gemini, the work was mostly done with slide rules and Fridens.

What Makes People Vote Republican?

Monday, September 15th, 2008

Jonathan Haidt, Associate Professor of Psychology at the University of Virginia, admits that the psychological community is quite liberal, and that psychologists see conservative moral views as narrow-minded, racist, and dumb — in large part because they have very different notions of what morality encompasses.

Berkeley psychologist Elliot Turiel, for instance, claims that morality refers to “prescriptive judgments of justice, rights, and welfare pertaining to how people ought to relate to each other,” but ancient moral texts, like Leviticus, dwell on something entirely different, namely, sorting things into two categories — which Haidt refers to as disgusts me (gay male sex, menstruation, pigs, swarming insects) and disgusts me less (gay female sex, urination, cows, grasshoppers ) — not on justice, rights, and welfare at all.

This plays out in his own research into moral psychology:

For my dissertation research, I made up stories about people who did things that were disgusting or disrespectful yet perfectly harmless. For example, what do you think about a woman who can’t find any rags in her house so she cuts up an old American flag and uses the pieces to clean her toilet, in private? Or how about a family whose dog is killed by a car, so they dismember the body and cook it for dinner? I read these stories to 180 young adults and 180 eleven-year-old children, half from higher social classes and half from lower, in the USA and in Brazil. I found that most of the people I interviewed said that the actions in these stories were morally wrong, even when nobody was harmed. Only one group — college students at Penn — consistently exemplified Turiel’s definition of morality and overrode their own feelings of disgust to say that harmless acts were not wrong. (A few even praised the efficiency of recycling the flag and the dog).

This research led me to two conclusions. First, when gut feelings are present, dispassionate reasoning is rare. In fact, many people struggled to fabricate harmful consequences that could justify their gut-based condemnation. I often had to correct people when they said things like “it’s wrong because… um…eating dog meat would make you sick” or “it’s wrong to use the flag because… um… the rags might clog the toilet.” These obviously post-hoc rationalizations illustrate the philosopher David Hume’s dictum that reason is “the slave of the passions, and can pretend to no other office than to serve and obey them.” This is the first rule of moral psychology: feelings come first and tilt the mental playing field on which reasons and arguments compete. If people want to reach a conclusion, they can usually find a way to do so. The Democrats have historically failed to grasp this rule, choosing uninspiring and aloof candidates who thought that policy arguments were forms of persuasion.

The second conclusion was that the moral domain varies across cultures. Turiel’s description of morality as being about justice, rights, and human welfare worked perfectly for the college students I interviewed at Penn, but it simply did not capture the moral concerns of the less elite groups — the working-class people in both countries who were more likely to justify their judgments with talk about respect, duty, and family roles. (“Your dog is family, and you just don’t eat family.”) From this study I concluded that the anthropologist Richard Shweder was probably right in a 1987 critique of Turiel in which he claimed that the moral domain (not just specific rules) varies by culture. Drawing on Shweder’s ideas, I would say that the second rule of moral psychology is that morality is not just about how we treat each other (as most liberals think); it is also about binding groups together, supporting essential institutions, and living in a sanctified and noble way.

This, he claims, is What Makes People Vote Republican?

When Republicans say that Democrats “just don’t get it,” this is the “it” to which they refer. Conservative positions on gays, guns, god, and immigration must be understood as means to achieve one kind of morally ordered society. When Democrats try to explain away these positions using pop psychology they err, they alienate, and they earn the label “elitist.” But how can Democrats learn to see — let alone respect — a moral order they regard as narrow-minded, racist, and dumb?

At this point in the essay he still sounds quite condescending toward conservatives.

He goes on to describe how his feelings changed when, as a 29-year-old liberal atheist, he spent some time with a family in Bhubaneswar, India, and his basic empathy kicked in:

Rather than automatically rejecting the men as sexist oppressors and pitying the women, children, and servants as helpless victims, I was able to see a moral world in which families, not individuals, are the basic unit of society, and the members of each extended family (including its servants) are intensely interdependent. In this world, equality and personal autonomy were not sacred values. Honoring elders, gods, and guests, and fulfilling one’s role-based duties, were more important.

This changed his views of the American religious right:

They want more prayer and spanking in schools, and less sex education and access to abortion? I didn’t think those steps would reduce AIDS and teen pregnancy, but I could see why the religious right wanted to “thicken up” the moral climate of schools and discourage the view that children should be as free as possible to act on their desires. Conservatives think that welfare programs and feminism increase rates of single motherhood and weaken the traditional social structures that compel men to support their own children? Hmm, that may be true, even if there are also many good effects of liberating women from dependence on men. I had escaped from my prior partisan mindset (reject first, ask rhetorical questions later), and began to think about liberal and conservative policies as manifestations of deeply conflicting but equally heartfelt visions of the good society.

So he rejects Turiel’s narrow definition of morality (“justice, rights, and welfare”):

Here’s my alternative definition: morality is any system of interlocking values, practices, institutions, and psychological mechanisms that work together to suppress or regulate selfishness and make social life possible. It turns out that human societies have found several radically different approaches to suppressing selfishness, two of which are most relevant for understanding what Democrats don’t understand about morality.

One approach is the libertarian notion of a contractual society, as proposed by John Stuart Mill in On Liberty, where “the only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others.”

(Haidt seems to think this notion applies to modern, progressive liberalism, by the way.)

Anyway, moral psychology offers some support for such a society:

Psychologists have done extensive research on the moral mechanisms that are presupposed in a Millian society, and there are two that appear to be partly innate. First, people in all cultures are emotionally responsive to suffering and harm, particularly violent harm, and so nearly all cultures have norms or laws to protect individuals and to encourage care for the most vulnerable. Second, people in all cultures are emotionally responsive to issues of fairness and reciprocity, which often expand into notions of rights and justice. Philosophical efforts to justify liberal democracies and egalitarian social contracts invariably rely heavily on intuitions about fairness and reciprocity.

But now imagine another social contract, a conservative one:

But now imagine society not as an agreement among individuals but as something that emerged organically over time as people found ways of living together, binding themselves to each other, suppressing each other’s selfishness, and punishing the deviants and free-riders who eternally threaten to undermine cooperative groups. The basic social unit is not the individual, it is the hierarchically structured family, which serves as a model for other institutions. Individuals in such societies are born into strong and constraining relationships that profoundly limit their autonomy. The patron saint of this more binding moral system is the sociologist Emile Durkheim, who warned of the dangers of anomie (normlessness), and wrote, in 1897, that “Man cannot become attached to higher aims and submit to a rule if he sees nothing above him to which he belongs. To free himself from all social pressure is to abandon himself and demoralize him.” A Durkheimian society at its best would be a stable network composed of many nested and overlapping groups that socialize, reshape, and care for individuals who, if left to their own devices, would pursue shallow, carnal, and selfish pleasures. A Durkheimian society would value self-control over self-expression, duty over rights, and loyalty to one’s groups over concerns for outgroups.

A Durkheimian ethos can’t be supported by the two moral foundations that hold up a Millian society (harm/care and fairness/reciprocity). My recent research shows that social conservatives do indeed rely upon those two foundations, but they also value virtues related to three additional psychological systems: ingroup/loyalty (involving mechanisms that evolved during the long human history of tribalism), authority/respect (involving ancient primate mechanisms for managing social rank, tempered by the obligation of superiors to protect and provide for subordinates), and purity/sanctity (a relatively new part of the moral mind, related to the evolution of disgust, that makes us see carnality as degrading and renunciation as noble). These three systems support moralities that bind people into intensely interdependent groups that work together to reach common goals. Such moralities make it easier for individuals to forget themselves and coalesce temporarily into hives, a process that is thrilling, as anyone who has ever “lost” him or herself in a choir, protest march, or religious ritual can attest.

Haidt has found, via Internet surveys, that people who call themselves strongly liberal endorse statements related to the harm/care and fairness/reciprocity foundations, and they largely reject statements related to ingroup/loyalty, authority/respect, and purity/sanctity:

We think of the moral mind as being like an audio equalizer, with five slider switches for different parts of the moral spectrum. Democrats generally use a much smaller part of the spectrum than do Republicans. The resulting music may sound beautiful to other Democrats, but it sounds thin and incomplete to many of the swing voters that left the party in the 1980s, and whom the Democrats must recapture if they want to produce a lasting political realignment.

By that analogy, which sliders are the libertarians playing with again? Because libertarians, or classical liberals like Mill, have very, very different ideas on fairness/reciprocity than modern, progressive liberals.

Read the whole thing. (Think about it. Think, think about it.)

Prehistoric Light Sabers

Monday, September 15th, 2008

Back in 1986 (or so), Jack Crenshaw wrote a piece on the really early days of computing for Micro Cornucopia magazine:

The editor had asked us to offer stories of how things were in “the early days of computing.” I expect he meant, “the early days of microcomputing,” but I elected to delve back even further in time.

Thus, he describes logs and solving problems with a slide rule or by graphing:

My first technical class in college was a course in how to use the slide rule. The slide rule never left our collective sides, housed as it was in a scabbard hanging from our belts like prehistoric light sabers.

The one operation the slide rule couldn’t do was to add/subtract. For that we still had to do things by hand, although in graduate school I finally got a neat little pocket adding machine (based on a design by Pascal), that helped immensely. As a sidelight, I entered a sports car rally as a navigator (the “sports car” was a custom ’41 Chevy). We won, thanks to the invincible computing power of my slide rule and adding machine.

As the years progressed, so did our proficiency with the slide rule. Our performances and grades in our classes depended upon it, and we studied it earnestly. Before a quiz, we would carefully adjust it like a soldier cleans his rifle before a big battle. Those three strips of bamboo had to be spaced just right, to slide freely but still stay where they were put. We actually lubricated them with talcum powder for maximum speed without overheating (!). You could always tell the guys who were serious about their grades, by the talcum powder stains on their shirts.

Our skills in graphics were sharpened, too. In those days, the worth of an engineer depended just as much on his ability to draw a straight line or to plot a graph, as on his “book-larnin.” Many problems that we now do by computer were solved in those days with graphs and nomograms. One of my favorite courses was Descriptive Geometry. There, we learned to do all kinds of magical things with a pencil and T-square.

I’m told that not all engineers carried a prehistoric light saber at all times. Although unarmed, such engineers could occasionally be found talking to women.

Why Libraries Are Back in Style

Monday, September 15th, 2008

June Fletcher of the Wall Street Journal explains Why Libraries Are Back in Style — and it’s not because people are reading:

Reading rates are down and Americans say they love casual living. And yet, one of the most popular rooms in big new houses is a library. Rather than being about books, their appeal is often about creating a certain ambiance. “Libraries connote elegance and quality,” says New York architect and interior designer Campion Platt, adding that most of his wealthy clients want one, even if they do most of their reading online.

Libraries have become so fashionable that this month, talk-show host Oprah Winfrey featured the one in her Santa Barbara, Calif., home on the cover of her magazine; it contains first editions collected for her by a rare-book dealer.

In the latest annual National Association of Home Builders consumer survey, 63% of home buyers said they wanted a library or considered one essential, a percentage that has been edging up for the past few years. Many mass-market home builders are including libraries in their house plans, sometimes with retro touches like rolling ladders and circular stairs.

Jeani Ziering, an interior designer in Manhasset, N.Y., says the newfound popularity of libraries is part of a general movement toward traditional design and décor. “When the economy turns bad, people turn to the classics,” she says. Libraries are especially appealing during anxious times because they project coziness and comfort, she adds.

What can make libraries more soothing than other formal rooms isn’t so much books but the framed family photographs, awards and mementos that share the shelves and define a family’s interests and identity, says McLean, Va., architect Chris Lessard. “They’re memory rooms,” he says. Because libraries are public rooms, oftentimes the books are purely decorative and don’t say as much about the family who lives there. The books that people really read, like paperback novels and how-to guides, often are kept out of sight elsewhere in the home.
[...]
Tucson, Ariz., interior designer Terri Taylor says she spends a lot of time scouring flea markets and bookstores for books with fancy bindings for her clients’ bookshelves. She selects books to match color schemes rather than for their content. She once was ecstatic to find a stash of beautiful, leather-bound books at the bargain price of $20 apiece — never mind that they were written in German, a language her clients didn’t read. “I bought cases of them,” she says.

For home builders who are scaling back the size of houses to make them more affordable and cheaper to construct, libraries are a more functional way to create an upscale look than the “old, crazy massive foyers and ‘Gone With the Wind’ staircases,” that characterized houses a few years ago, says Memphis, Tenn., architect Carson Looney.

Sigh.

How Steel Fails at High Temperatures

Monday, September 15th, 2008

Iron atoms in steel: Black balls show irregularities that disrupt magnetic fields, weakening steelNew research uncovers how steel fails at high temperatures, like those in the World Trade Center seven years ago — or in the fusion reactors of tomorrow:

The key advance is the understanding that, at high temperatures, tiny irregularities in a steel’s structure can disrupt its internal magnetic fields, making the rigid metal soft.

“Steels melt at about 1,150C (2,102F), but lose strength at much lower temperatures,” explained Dr Sergei Dudarev, principal scientist at the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA).

At room temperature, the magnetic fields between iron atoms remain regular, but when heated, these fields are altered allowing the atoms to slide past each other, weakening the steel.

“[The steel] becomes very soft. It is not melting but the effect is the same,” said Dr Dudarev.

He said blacksmiths had exploited this property for hundreds of years – it allows iron to become pliable at temperatures much lower than its melting point.

The peak in this pliability is at 911.5C, but begins at much lower temperatures, at around 500C (932F) – a temperature often reached during building fires.

Pakistan’s Newest Feudal Lord

Monday, September 15th, 2008

Robert Kaplan is not impressed with Pakistan's Newest Feudal Lord, Asif Ali Zardari, who was jus sworn in as Pakistan’s president, replacing Pervez Musharraf:

Zardari’s sole qualification is that he is the widower of the slain leader of the Pakistan’s People’s Party, Benazir Bhutto. Her main qualification for leading her party and twice serving as prime minister was that she was the daughter of the late prime minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Pakistan is steeped in feudalism and governed by the cult of personality that arises from it. Political parties have no ideology: they are mere extensions of their leaders’ love of self and power.

Zardari, the new president, is an erstwhile polo player and playboy whose singular accomplishment in life is that he got Bhutto to marry him. When his wife was prime minister, he was known as “Mr. Ten Percent,” for the commissions on state contracts he allegedly took. During the years his wife was in office, he reportedly made off with many tens of millions of dollars that enabled him to, among other things, buy a massive estate in Britain. For years, Swiss authorities wanted him for money laundering. His life seems to have no higher purpose than joining the ranks of the megarich. He is reputed to be the ultimate bullying rogue. His ascension to the presidency is viewed as another sign that Pakistan will join the ranks of other failed states.

How Arnold Kling Lost His Macro Religion

Monday, September 15th, 2008

Arnold Kling reminisces about how he lost his macro religion:

Greg Mankiw has an essay called The Scientist and the Engineer, which is about the gulf between academic macro and the macro used by forecasters and policymakers. I experienced this conflict intensely early in my career.

From January through August of 1976, I was a research assistant in the National Income section at the Federal Reserve Board. I worked for Dave Wyss, a model jockey. A model jockey might ask, “What will be the effect of the stimulus proposal on GDP?” You have an equation, estimated using past data, that predicts how much consumption will go up for a given increase in disposable income. You interact that with a bunch of other equations, and out comes your answer. That is how the engineers look at macro.

In the fall of 1976, I started grad school at MIT. I was surprised to find that young scientists were not impressed by engineers. Ray Fair, an engineer-type from Yale, came to teach a course in macro-econometric modeling, and he became a laughing-stock. The course consisted of Fair walking through his own model of about 100 equations, and I can remember classmate John Huizinga (now at U. of Chicago) sarcastically commenting, “Let me guess. The lagged dependent variable, right?” In layman’s terms, what Huizinga was complaining about was that regardless of the type of variable that Fair was trying to predict (inflation, unemployment, consumer spending, what have you), he always found a theoretical rationale for including the previous quarter’s value of that variable in the prediction equation. The statistical performance of his forecasts rested on this crutch.

Nonetheless, I was still feeling loyalty to the engineers. In fact, a lot of what the scientists were doing struck me as equivalent to asking how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

Then Kling attended a lecture by Bob Hall — “The Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis of Consumption” — and found that quarterly changes in income had no statistically significant relationship to quarterly changes in consumption:

Lots of people, myself included, suspected Hall of pulling some sort of Swindle. It took him a few years to get his paper published. Soon, I got my degree and went back to work at the Fed.

When I rejoined the engineers at the Fed, Hall had planted seeds of doubt in my mind about the reliability of looking at data over time in terms of absolute levels, because looking at quarterly changes can produce different results. Clive Granger (who recently won a Nobel) and Christopher Sims were raising all sorts of alarms about the problem of what is called nonstationary data. After a few years of agonizing about this issue off and on, I came to the conclusion that the engineers’ models are an exercise in self-deception. Macroeconomics is steeped in data but issues in macro cannot be resolved by data. One’s views on macro are more like religion.

I have not kept up with what the scientists of academia are doing in macro. It still strikes me as angel-counting. But I don’t believe that the engineers know very much, either. I don’t think of the economy in terms of a system of equations. I think that what Ben Bernanke is doing now — floundering, trying to prop up the financial system without creating too much inflation or moral hazard — is more typical of how one has to operate as a central banker (unless things are going smoothly, in which case you sit back and try to do as little as possible).

Kling concludes something more than you might expect:

Hall’s methods also affect my outlook on global warming. The fact that global temperatures are high at the same time that atmospheric carbon dioxide is high does not convince me. Changes in the two over shorter time horizons appear to be unrelated. I understand that there are scientific arguments that would justify a strong long-term relationship and a weak short-term relationship, but those arguments only serve to convince me that the observed data cannot rule out man-made global warming. The case that the data prove man-made global warming is very weak, the way that I see it.

Pakistan’s Newest Feudal Lord

Monday, September 15th, 2008

Robert Kaplan is not impressed with Pakistan's Newest Feudal Lord, Asif Ali Zardari, who was jus sworn in as Pakistan’s president, replacing Pervez Musharraf:

Zardari’s sole qualification is that he is the widower of the slain leader of the Pakistan’s People’s Party, Benazir Bhutto. Her main qualification for leading her party and twice serving as prime minister was that she was the daughter of the late prime minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Pakistan is steeped in feudalism and governed by the cult of personality that arises from it. Political parties have no ideology: they are mere extensions of their leaders’ love of self and power.

Zardari, the new president, is an erstwhile polo player and playboy whose singular accomplishment in life is that he got Bhutto to marry him. When his wife was prime minister, he was known as “Mr. Ten Percent,” for the commissions on state contracts he allegedly took. During the years his wife was in office, he reportedly made off with many tens of millions of dollars that enabled him to, among other things, buy a massive estate in Britain. For years, Swiss authorities wanted him for money laundering. His life seems to have no higher purpose than joining the ranks of the megarich. He is reputed to be the ultimate bullying rogue. His ascension to the presidency is viewed as another sign that Pakistan will join the ranks of other failed states.

The New Pranksters

Sunday, September 14th, 2008

The Old Pranksters of the ’60s and ’70s are upset that The New Pranksters of today aren’t subversive enough:

Improv Everywhere pranks have typically been aimed at the consumer culture. In one 2006 stunt, 80 people dressed in what looked like Best Buy employee uniforms — blue shirts and khakis — walked around in one of the chain’s stores in Manhattan, much to the confusion of everyone around them. Mr. Todd says a store employee called the police and the pranksters disbanded after the authorities arrived. Best Buy spokeswoman Susan Busch says the company “took it in good stride” and would only object if the prank interfered with customers shopping.

Last year, the group sent 111 shirtless men into an Abercrombie & Fitch in New York City, in a spoof of the chain’s use of bare-chested hunks in its ad campaigns. The men (some fat, some thin) were told to say they were shopping for a shirt. Spokesman David Cupps says the company has no comment.

The group also sent more than 50 redheads to stand in front of a Manhattan Wendy’s and chant “No pigtails!” in a mock protest of what they said was the inaccurate portrayal of redheads in the chain’s ad campaign. Company spokesman Bob Bertini says the stunt was a minor distraction and showed people “engaging with the brand.”

In fact, some advertisers are starting to see the marketing value of pranks. Taco Bell recently hired Mr. Todd to stage a “freeze” in a new restaurant in Flushing, N.Y., where paid extras posing as employees and patrons simply froze in place, baffling the actual customers. The stunt was later used in a viral marketing campaign for the restaurant’s Frutista Freeze drink, and a video of the prank has been viewed 500,000 times online, says Taco Bell spokesman Will Bortz. “We thought it was brilliant,” he says.

I love the indignation of “serious” pranksters:

Some of Mr. Todd’s admirers objected, however. “Taco Bell killed the freeze,” says David Kartsonis, a 21-year-old video and TV producer from Redondo Beach, Calif., who helps organize events for GuerilLA. He says he won’t do the stunt now because it’s been overexposed. Mr. Kartsonis also complains that Improv Everywhere’s videos seem geared more toward viral popularity online than in-the-moment fun: “They spend a lot more time worrying about the end viewer. We focus on people who are actually there at the time enjoying it.”

Mr. Todd says he did the Taco Bell stunt after the freeze craze had passed; freezes have already been performed in 50 countries, he says.

Governor Palin and Senator Clinton address the nation

Sunday, September 14th, 2008

Governor Palin and Senator Clinton address the nation: