The LA Times looks at new cars that are fully loaded — with debt:
Gone are the days of the three-year car loan. The length of the average automobile loan hit five years, four months in October, up more than six months from 2002, according to the Federal Reserve. And nearly 45% of loans written today are for longer than six years. Even some staid lenders owned by the carmakers, such as Toyota Financial Services and Ford Credit, are offering seven-year financing. And a few credit unions, particularly in the West, are tinkering with the eight-year note.At the same time, the amount of money drivers owe on their cars is soaring. In October, the average amount financed hit $30,738, up $3,500 in just a year and nearly 40% in the last decade, according to the Fed. More troubling, today’s average car owner owes $4,221 more than the vehicle is worth at the time it’s sold — up from $3,529 in 2002, according to industry analyst Edmunds.
The longer loans are directly related to the higher balances. By extending the length of loans, lenders keep monthly payments down. But because these loans take longer to pay off, a much larger piece of the principal remains unpaid at the time the car is traded in.
The response of the automotive finance industry? Extend loans further and allow the indebted customer to roll what he owes into a new loan with little, if any, effect on his new monthly payment. In effect, the driver is paying a loan on two — or more — cars at once.
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In the 1970s and ’80s, car loans hovered between 36 and 48 months, and drivers typically kept their cars longer than the life of the loan. A number of factors changed that.One key was interest rates, which fell from a high of 17.8% in the early 1980s to lower than 5% today, according to the Federal Reserve. Another was affordability. According to an index tracked by Comerica Bank, cars have steadily gotten more affordable — as compared to median family income — since the late 1990s.
With cheap money at hand for more-affordable cars, the temptation to keep buying became huge. Today, according to Pregmon, financed cars are typically turned over in 24 to 36 months.
At the same time they were extending loan maturities, lenders, competing with one another, began offering more money and requiring smaller down payments.
Today, most lenders offer financing on 100% or even 125% of the sticker price, and some offer the most credit-worthy buyers loans for twice the value of the vehicle they’re purchasing. Last year, the average amount financed for new cars reached 99%, according to the Consumer Bankers Assn., up from 95% in 2005.
The article treats “upside-down” loans, where the amount owed is greater than the value of the car, as an unnatural aberration, but when you have a constant payment and an asset that doesn’t depreciate linearly, you shouldn’t be surprised to see the loan go upside-down at some point.