Is Bigger Safer? It Ain’t Necessarily So

Friday, August 25th, 2006

Is Bigger Safer? It Ain’t Necessarily So:

Those who think that driving big is driving safe, or that lightweight, fuel-efficient vehicles are inherently more dangerous than their heavyweight counterparts, need to think again. A researcher with Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (Berkeley Lab) has teamed with a researcher from the University of Michigan in a unique risk analysis study which shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, vehicle quality is a much more important safety factor than weight for the drivers of vehicles involved in a crash.

“Most cars are safer than the average sports utility vehicle [SUV], while pickup trucks are much less safe than all other types. Minivans and import luxury cars have the safest records,” states the report, “An Analysis of Traffic Deaths by Vehicle Type and Model,” which was prepared by Tom Wenzel, an energy analyst with Berkeley Lab’s Environmental Energy Technologies Division, and Marc Ross, a professor in Michigan’s Applied Physics Department.

A large pickup truck, like a Ford F-series, is no safer than a Toyota Corolla — and it’s five times as dangerous to other drivers in a crash.

Boiled bones show Aztecs butchered, ate invaders

Friday, August 25th, 2006

Boiled bones show Aztecs butchered, ate invaders:

The caravan was apparently captured because it was made up mostly of the mulatto, mestizo, Maya Indian and Caribbean men and women given to the Spanish as carriers and cooks when they landed in Mexico in 1519, and so was moving slowly.

The prisoners were kept in cages for months while Aztec priests selected a few each day at dawn, held them down on a sacrificial slab, cut out their hearts and offered them up to various Aztec gods.

Some may have been given hallucinogenic mushrooms or pulque — an alcoholic milky drink made from fermented cactus juice — to numb them to what was about to happen.

“It was a continuous sacrifice over six months. While the prisoners were listening to their companions being sacrificed, the next ones were being selected,” Martinez said, standing in his lab amid boxes of bones, some of young children.

“You can only imagine what it was like for the last ones, who were left six months before being chosen, their anguish.”

The priests and town elders, who performed the rituals on the steps of temples cut off by a perimeter wall, sometimes ate their victims’ raw and bloody hearts or cooked flesh from their arms and legs once it dropped off the boiling bones.

Knife cuts and even teeth marks on the bones show which ones had meat stripped off to be eaten, Martinez said.

Aztec warriors whitened the bones with lime and carried them as amulets. Some were used as ornaments in homes.

In Aztec times, the site was called Zultepec, a town of white-stucco temples and homes where some 5,000 people grew maize and beans and produced pulque to sell to traders.

Priests had to be brought in for the ritual killings because human sacrifices had never taken place there, Martinez said.

On hearing of the massacre, Cortes renamed the town Tecuaque — meaning “where people were eaten” in the indigenous Nahuatl language — and sent an army to wipe out its people.

When they heard the Spanish were coming, the Zultepec Aztecs threw their victims’ possessions down wells, unwittingly preserving buttons and jewelry for the archaeologists.

Busy Americans flocking to circuit gyms

Friday, August 25th, 2006

From Busy Americans flocking to circuit gyms:

It’s no surprise that circuit workouts — cheap, low-key and easy to understand — are popping up in strip malls coast to coast. About a third of the country’s estimated 30,000 health clubs are now express workout facilities, according to IHRSA. While Curves found an audience among middle-aged and older women, the spinoffs are branching out to other groups.

Cuts Fitness for Men, which opened in 2003, now has 90 locations across the country. With a tan-and-blue color scheme and “Cheers”-like camaraderie, founder John Gennaro said members are typically between 30 and 60 and often watch a baseball game together after their workouts.

The Blitz, a boxing-themed circuit gym, has 75 locations nationwide. This fall, president
Scott Smith is planning a foray into the 18 to 35 market with a coed, military-themed version called “Commandos.”

Even major chains like 24 Hour Fitness and Gold’s Gym have rolled out circuit workouts.

One circuit gym in southern California invites the entire family to work out. At Family Fitness Express in LaCanada, Calif., members are encouraged to bring along the kids, or even grandma and grandpa.

Stature and Status: Height, Ability, and Labor Market Outcomes

Friday, August 25th, 2006

When it comes to Stature and Status, Tyler Cowen says that maybe it’s not greater self-esteem that accounts for tall men’s salaries:

It has long been recognized that taller adults hold jobs of higher status and, on average, earn more than other workers. A large number of hypotheses have been put forward to explain the association between height and earnings. In developed countries, researchers have emphasized factors such as self esteem, social dominance, and discrimination. In this paper, we offer a simpler explanation: On average, taller people earn more because they are smarter. As early as age 3 — before schooling has had a chance to play a role — and throughout childhood, taller children perform significantly better on cognitive tests. The correlation between height in childhood and adulthood is approximately 0.7 for both men and women, so that tall children are much more likely to become tall adults. As adults, taller individuals are more likely to select into higher paying occupations that require more advanced verbal and numerical skills and greater intelligence, for which they earn handsome returns. Using four data sets from the US and the UK, we find that the height premium in adult earnings can be explained by childhood scores on cognitive tests. Furthermore, we show that taller adults select into occupations that have higher cognitive skill requirements and lower physical skill demands.

Forget the World Bank, Try Wal-Mart

Friday, August 25th, 2006

Michael Strongs says, Forget the World Bank, Try Wal-Mart:

Between 1990 and 2002 more than 174 million people escaped poverty in China, about 1.2 million per month.[1] With an estimated $23 billion in Chinese exports in 2005 (out of a total of $713 billion in manufacturing exports),[2] Wal-Mart might well be single-handedly responsible for bringing about 38,000 people out of poverty in China each month, about 460,000 per year.

There are estimates that 70 percent of Wal-Mart’s products are made in China.[3] One writer vividly suggests that “One way to think of Wal-Mart is as a vast pipeline that gives non-U.S. companies direct access to the American market.” [4] Even without considering the $263 billion in consumer savings that Wal-Mart provides for low-income Americans, or the millions lifted out of poverty by Wal-Mart in other developing nations, it is unlikely that there is any single organization on the planet that alleviates poverty so effectively for so many people.[5] Moreover, insofar as China’s rapid manufacturing growth has been associated with a decline in its status as a global arms dealer, Wal-Mart has also done more than its share in contributing to global peace.[6]

Meerkat Cubs

Friday, August 25th, 2006

Today’s dose of cute comes from these Meerkat Cubs:

In this photograph provided by the Smithsonian Institution, two of the National Zoos three meerkat pups peer out of a den at the Small Mammal House at the zoo Sunday, Aug. 20 in Washington. Born nearly two weeks earlier, the cubs are the first surviving litter born at the National Zoo in the past three decades.

Animals on the Underground

Thursday, August 24th, 2006

There are Animals on the Underground. That is, you can see animals in the lines of London Underground maps:

The Animals, made up using tube lines, stations and junctions on the London Underground map, were spotted by Paul Middlewick some 17 years ago.

The original Animal, the Elephant, was discoverd while Paul was staring at the tube map during his daily journey to work.

Since then, the Elephant has been joined by many other Animal friends.

Take a look.

Public Works Gone Awry

Wednesday, August 23rd, 2006

Economist Xavier Sala-i-Martin shares some photos of Public Works Gone Awry:

It is commonly agreed that Keynes came up with the idea that public works are the best way to help the economy during a recession.

As a result, Keynesian economists seem to have developed a blind faith in the government in general, and in the system of public works in particular.

I do not share the same faith in the government.

I do not share the same faith in public works.

And this may help explain why.

Seeing Mexican Immigration Clearly

Wednesday, August 23rd, 2006

Social scientist Douglas Massey says that we are not Seeing Mexican Immigration Clearly:

Mexican immigration is not a tidal wave. The rate of undocumented migration has not increased in over two decades. Neither is Mexico a demographic time bomb; its fertility rate is only slightly above replacement. Although a variety of trans-border population movements have increased, this is to be expected in a North American economy that is increasingly integrated under the terms of a mutually-ratified trade agreement. Undocumented migration stems from the unwillingness of the United States to include labor within the broader framework governing trade and investment. Rates of migration between Mexico and the United States are entirely normal for two countries so closely integrated economically.

Mexico is not impoverished or disorganized. It is a dynamic, one trillion dollar economy and, along with Canada, our largest trading partner. Its per capita income is $10,000, which puts it at the upper tier of middle income countries, not far behind Russia’s per capita income of $11,000. Compared with Russia, however, Mexico has a much better developed infrastructure of highways, ports, railroads, telecommunications, and social services that give it a poverty rate of 18% rather than 40%, as well as a male life expectancy of 73 years rather than 61 years (U.S. figures are 12% and 75 years, respectively). Unlike Russia, moreover, Mexico is a functioning democracy with open and competitive elections, a separation of powers, and a well-defined party system.

In keeping with these realities, Mexicans are not desperate to settle north of the border. Most migrants are not fleeing poverty so much as seeking social mobility. They typically have a job and income in Mexico and are seeking to finance some economic goal at home — acquiring a home, purchasing land, capitalizing a business, investing in education, smoothing consumption. Left to themselves, the vast majority of migrants will return once they have met their economic goals. From 1965 to 1985, 85% of undocumented entries from Mexico were offset by departures and the net increase in the undocumented population was small. The build-up of enforcement resources at the border has not decreased the entry of migrants so much as discouraged their return home. Since the late 1980s the rate of undocumented out-migration has been halved. Undocumented population growth in the United States stems not from rising in-migration, but from falling out-migration.

The Collapse of Liberal Orders

Tuesday, August 22nd, 2006

Shannon Love argues that The Collapse of Liberal Orders comes about not through the slow accumulation of illiberal laws but through the failure to maintain basic security:

In the post-9/11 world, everyone worries that increasing government power in order to fight terrorism will lead inexorably to a loss of freedom and ultimately to a collapse of the liberal (in the classic sense) order of Western society. This concern is not a new one. Britons in the 1700s warned of ‘insensible loss of liberties’ that would occur by the aggregate effects of the accumulation of seemingly trivial individual laws. A vast array of citizens watch with eagle eyes every new power of the state and seek to obstruct most of them. believing that the powers represent a greater threat than the enemy they seek to contain.

History, however, suggest they are looking in the wrong direction.

The history of the 20th Century paints a very clear picture of how liberal orders collapse into authoritarian ones. Contrary to popular belief, liberal orders do not gradually evolve into authoritarian ones by the accumulation of state power. Instead, liberal orders fail suddenly when they cease to provide basic physical and economic security. The functional power of the state decays until conditions reach a degree of disorder that triggers a sudden collapse into an authoritarian order. Ineffectiveness kills the liberal state, not excessive powers.

The major cases of Russia, Italy, Germany and Japan all follow this pattern. In each case, the liberal order lost the ability to provide the basic order and stability required for the economy to function, and simultaneously lost the ability to suppress the violent action of political extremists. A feedback loop arose in which the erosion of state effectiveness created disorder which empowered extremists who further sabotaged the state’s ability to function. The feedback loop rather rapidly increased the power of extremists and destroyed the liberal order.

Terrorism as we know it today did not exist prior to the 1960s. Virtually everyone considered the targeting of random civilians by shadowy unaccountable organizations utterly taboo. No one had any trouble recognizing such tactics as war crimes. Any group who adopted such tactics faced political suicide if not outright extermination. Even in the ’60s and ’70s most major terrorist actions sought to create maximum media exposure with a minimum of civilian casualties. As the liberal West seemed unable to respond effectively to terrorism, more and more groups adopted it as a tactic and their attacks grew more violent and less precisely targeted. Now we face the very real possibility of attacks using nuclear and biological weapons which could kill millions at a stroke.

If we cannot successfully curtail the escalation of terrorism we face the collapse of our liberal order. Today we face Islamist terrorists, but if others view terrorism as successful we will face attacks from other groups as well. Terrorist attacks will undermine social and economic functions and people will increasingly view the liberal order as a failed one. 9/11 illustrates this risk in miniature. During the ’90s the West proved unable to restrain Al-Qaeda and its attacks grew increasingly destructive. People worried more about increasing state power than they did about the external threat. Finally, 9/11 caused a counter-reaction and we saw a sudden expansion of state power. Had we treated terrorism more seriously and had we authorized relatively minor expansions of state power in the ’90s we would not have the Patriot Act and NSA surveillance today.

Political correctness threatens to cripple the effectiveness of the liberal order. For example, we refuse to use proven techniques such as profiling airline passengers and instead use invasive and ineffective searches for any object that might contain a bomb or weapon. We consider profiling, even accurate profiling, unjust. Neither will we use data mining, keyword searching or other modern tools, preferring instead to rely on invasive techniques such as planting informants. In the end we create the illusion of programs that are both powerful and ineffective. If a future attacks succeeds on a grand scale, many may conclude, just as they did after 9/11, that the state (or worse, a successor state) needs vastly more power.

We may be sliding down a slippery slope towards authoritarianism, but I fear we do so facing up-slope and unawares. We fix our eyes uphill on the minor threat while we slide insensibly down into the maw of the beast.

Give Me Your Tired, Your Poor… Arguments

Tuesday, August 22nd, 2006

Jerry Bowyer opens Give Me Your Tired, Your Poor… Arguments with this tip to masochists:

If you want a lot of hate mail, write pro-immigration articles for conservative publications.

A tired argument:

As the argument runs, we all like immigrants just fine, thank you. But what we don’t like is illegality. My grandfather, argues embattled Senator Rick Santorum, came here legally, and so should this generation’s immigrants. The problems here are legion. First, when our grandfathers came over here legally, it was relatively easy to do. During the late 19th and early 20th century, 37 million immigrants came to American shores. Irish, Italian, and Slovak workers flooded into the country, legally. To compare earlier waves of immigrants with current, largely Latino, immigrants is to leave out a tremendous shift in immigration law.

Second, the argument is basically circular. The debate is about whether we should change our laws. If we liberalize immigration rules, then a number of immigrants will no longer be in violation of the law. They won’t be “illegals.”

Two-Week-Old Puma

Monday, August 21st, 2006

Today’s dose of cute comes from Filomena, a two-week-old puma at the National Zoo in Managua, Nicaragua.

Ads Coming to Texbooks

Monday, August 21st, 2006

Ads Coming to Texbooks:

Textbook prices are soaring into the hundreds of dollars, but in some courses this fall, students won’t pay a dime. The catch: Their textbooks will have ads for companies including FedEx Kinko’s and Pura Vida coffee.

Selling ad space keeps newspapers, magazines, Web sites and television either cheap or free. But so far, the model hasn’t spread to college textbooks — partly for fear that faculty would consider ads undignified. The upshot is that textbooks now cost students, according to various studies, about $900 per year.

Now, a small Minnesota startup is trying to shake up the status quo in the $6 billion college textbook industry. Freeload Press will offer more than 100 titles this fall — mostly for business courses — completely free. Students, or anyone else who fills out a five-minute survey, can download a PDF file of the book, which they can store on their hard drive and print.

(Hat tip to Freakonomics.)

If Drugs Were Legal

Sunday, August 20th, 2006

The BBC’s If Drugs Were Legal is a peculiar mix of interview-based documentary, with experts from both sides of the issue, and dystopic Bladerunner-esque drama, complete with dark skylines, 1980s soundtrack — listen for Soft Cell’s “Sex Dwarf” — and sinister corporations.

Websites as Graphs

Sunday, August 20th, 2006

This HTML DOM Visualizer Applet produces beautiful output. A still image doesn’t do it justice either; the graph grows organically. It’s quite mesmerizing. Here’s the key:

blue: for links (the A tag)
red: for tables (TABLE, TR and TD tags)
green: for the DIV tag
violet: for images (the IMG tag)
yellow: for forms (FORM, INPUT, TEXTAREA, SELECT and OPTION tags)
orange: for linebreaks and blockquotes (BR, P, and BLOCKQUOTE tags)
black: the HTML tag, the root node
gray: all other tags