Iraq: Learning the Lessons of Vietnam

Tuesday, October 18th, 2005

In Iraq: Learning the Lessons of Vietnam, former secretary of defense Melvin R. Laird explains how to do it right this time:

During Richard Nixon’s first term, when I served as secretary of defense, we withdrew most U.S. forces from Vietnam while building up the South’s ability to defend itself. The result was a success — until Congress snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by cutting off funding for our ally in 1975. Washington should follow a similar strategy now, but this time finish the job properly.

That’s his summary. Read the whole article.

Collapsing the Maya

Tuesday, October 18th, 2005

Roger Sandall takes a contrarian point of view in Collapsing the Maya:

Let’s take Jared Diamond by the horns.

He would like us to believe that the decline and fall of the Maya was a tragic loss, and a sadly overgrown sculpture in the jungle ornaments the cover of his book Collapse.

But I don’t care if the Maya civilization did collapse. I don’t think we should shed a single retrospective tear. It might be interesting to know how or why it fell — whether from war or drought or disease or soil exhaustion — but I don’t much care about that either. Because quite frankly, as civilizations go, the Mayan civilization in Mexico didn’t amount to much.

Now I know this is a shocking thing to say. Gallery owners in New York and elsewhere will cry out indignantly about the glories of Maya art. They will show you terra cotta figurines and fine reliefs and paintings and tell splendid tales of “kings” and “nobles” and such. In deference to this view we shall gladly concede that Maya art is not uninteresting. But it is sheer romantic fantasy to mourn the passing, around 900 AD, of an aristocracy of hypersensitive native aesthetes — though anthropologists and art critics have written reams of such stuff.

Glamorous talk of “kings” and “lords” and “nobles” always sounds better than a realistic description of murderous and predatory chieftains with little but power, conquest, self-glorification, enslavement, and killing and torture on their minds. Yes: they wore spectacular feather head-dresses. Yes: they built sky-high piles of masonry. But their hands dripped blood — incessantly.

The Number That’s Devouring Science

Tuesday, October 18th, 2005

Some claim that the impact factor is The Number That’s Devouring Science:

In the beginning, during the late 1950s, it was just an innocent idea in Eugene Garfield’s head. A Philadelphia researcher who described himself as a ‘documentation consultant,’ Mr. Garfield spent his free time thinking about scientific literature and how to mine information from it.

He eventually dreamed up something he called an ‘impact factor,’ essentially a grading system for journals, that could help him pick out the most important publications from the ranks of lesser titles. To identify which journals mattered most to scientists, he proposed tallying up the number of citations an average article in each journal received.

This accounting method sounds harmless enough. Outside academe, few people have even heard of it. Mr. Garfield, though, now compares his brainchild to nuclear energy: a force that can help society but can unleash mayhem when it is misused.

Naturally, scientists and journal editors are gaming the system — which bears an uncanny resemblance to Google’s rankings.

Why Is Africa Still Poor?

Tuesday, October 18th, 2005

Why Is Africa Still Poor?:

A slogan painted on trucks and taxicabs all over Africa, much beloved by metaphor-hunting authors, reads: No Condition is Permanent. This is true, but some are recurring. Tyranny in Zimbabwe, famine in Niger, a constitutional coup in Togo, rampant corruption in Kenya, protesters shot in Ethiopia, an epidemic in Angola, civil war in Sudan — those are this year’s headlines, but if you think you’ve heard it all before, you have. Martin Meredith, in his new book The Fate of Africa, writes that “what is so striking about the fifty-year period since independence is the extent to which African states have suffered so many of the same misfortunes.” Some countries, like Nigeria and Zambia, have gone through cycles of reform and decay. But Meredith’s subtitle — From the Hopes of Freedom to the Heart of Despair — sums up the overall trend. It’s hard to imagine now, but in the heady days of the 1960s, much of the continent was no less prosperous than South Korea or Malaysia. While those Asian nations have transformed themselves into economic “tigers,” however, gross domestic products across Africa shrank during the last two decades of the twentieth century. Africans are getting poorer, not richer. They are living shorter, hungrier lives.

The decline of an entire continent confounds our preconceptions about human advancement. The economist Jeffrey Sachs points out in his recent book The End of Poverty that our Hegelian notion of linear progress is relatively new. For most of history, humans lived miserable existences and couldn’t expect better before the afterlife. But since the Industrial Revolution the situation has improved, and not only in the rich countries of Europe and North America. Between 1981 and 2001, Sachs says, hundreds of millions of people, many of them in Asian nations like China and India, emerged from extreme poverty. But a billion have been left behind, most of them in Africa. “The greatest tragedy of our time,” Sachs writes, is that one-sixth of all humans still live a dollar-a-day existence, scraping by on the margins of starvation.

Everyone agrees that African nations are poor and have corrupt governments — but that raises a chicken-and-egg question:

One group — call it the poverty-first camp — believes African governments are so lousy precisely because their countries are so poor. The other group — the governance-first camp — holds that Africans are impoverished because their rulers keep them that way.

Torment and Justice in Cambodia

Tuesday, October 18th, 2005

From Torment and Justice in Cambodia:

Between April 1975, when the KR overthrew the despised Lon Nol regime, and January 1979, when the Vietnamese invaded, the rulers of Democratic Kampuchea killed — by murder, starvation, and forced labor — 1.7 to two million people, close to a quarter of the entire population. In the torment they wreaked on a small country in such a short time, the KR ranks as possibly the most savage Communist Party to curse the twentieth century.

In the name of revolutionary purity, the KR abolished private property, personal possessions, money, leisure, socializing, marriage (except in cadre-approved cases), religion, and all personal liberties. Democratic Kampuchea was a land of totalitarian rural communes. The day the KR took power, they evacuated the entire population of Phnom Penh in twenty-four hours, including infirm hospital patients whom family members had to push out of town in their beds, some trailing intravenous tubing and bags. By nightfall, the capital was almost empty. In the countryside, people slaved and starved to grow rice that went to China and hauled buckets of earth to build dams without engineers or technicians. The purges of counterrevolutionary elements began on Day Two of the revolution (on the roads out of Phnom Penh) and never let up, culminating in a frenzy of executions within the party itself in 1978.

How much have things improved?

There has been tremendous growth in much of Southeast Asia in the last twenty years, but Cambodian indices of development are barely holding stable or sliding. The rice diet is so lacking in protein that stunted growth in children is endemic. Basic public services are lacking: in Phnom Penh, there is no garbage collection, no visible police, and only a handful of traffic lights in a city of a half million. Schools are the exception. But while crowds of children parade to school in the morning in the uniforms and miraculously starched white shirts that across the world are a sign of hope for the future, hordes of poorer kids run the streets during school hours: scavenging for food, moving goods on their bicycles, hustling for street vendors, begging; in the country, herding cows. Increasingly, city kids are falling into a burgeoning sex market for foreign pedophiles.

How’s this for corruption?

In Phnom Penh, violence is recognizably urban, with a nasty spin. In 2003, Hun Sen’s nephew hit a pedestrian with his SUV and then opened fire with an AK-47 on the crowd that gathered, killing two people and wounding four. At the trial in camera, all charges were dropped.

So what do you have to do to find happiness?

Tuesday, October 18th, 2005

Scientists are finally starting to take happiness seriously. So what do you have to do to find happiness? summarizes some recent findings:

Public surveys measure what makes us happy. Marriage does, pets do, but children don’t seem to (despite what we think). Youth and old age are the happiest times. Money does not add much to happiness; in Britain, incomes have trebled since 1950, but happiness has not increased at all. The happiness of lottery winners returns to former levels within a year. People disabled in an accident are likely to become almost as happy again. For happiness levels are probably genetic: identical twins are usually equally bubbly or grumpy.

One thing makes a striking difference. When two American psychologists studied hundreds of students and focused on the top 10% ‘very happy’ people, they found they spent the least time alone and the most time socialising. Psychologists know that increasing the number of social contacts a miserable person has is the best way of cheering them up. When Jean-Paul Sartre wrote ‘hell is other people’, the arch-pessimist of existentialist angst was wrong.

Freud’s work, of course, is pseudo-science:

Since the days of Freud, the emphasis in consulting rooms has been on talk about negative effects of the past and how they damage people in the present. Seligman names this approach “victimology” and says research shows it to be worthless: “It is difficult to find even small effects of childhood events on adult personality, and there is no evidence at all of large effects.”

The tragic legacy of Freud is that many are “unduly embittered about their past, and unduly passive about their future”, says Seligman. His colleague Aaron Beck developed cognitive therapy after becoming disillusioned with his Freudian training in the 1950s. Beck found that as depressed patients talked “cathartically” about past wounds and losses, some people began to unravel. Occasionally this led to suicide attempts, some of which were fatal. There was very little evidence that psychoanalysis worked.

Lasers Reverse-Engineer Old Gear

Monday, October 17th, 2005

Frp, Lasers Reverse-Engineer Old Gear:

The U.S. military is relying more and more on gear that’s older than the soldiers who use it, Photonics Spectra notes. Which means the companies that built the hardware — and originally supplied spare parts — may be defunct. Blueprints and documentation may be outdated, or have just plain vanished. So reverse-engineering firms, armed with laser scanners, are stepping in, to re-create what was lost.

[...]

Radian Milparts, out of Willoughby, Ohio, is making new M60 gun mounts for the Navy’s H-3 Sea King helicopters. The Navy “had a sample gun mount, but no manufacturing source, and no accurate technical data,” the company explains. So Radian scanned the mount, dumped it into the computer, and then produced fresh mounts — and blueprints — from the new, electronic design. The effort “follows an earlier, small program where Radian Milparts reinvented, documented and fabricated” an H-3 circuit board.

Robo-Mule Gets Wheel, Leg Blend

Monday, October 17th, 2005

Robo-Mule Gets Wheel, Leg Blend describes David Hambling’s idea for a robotic “mule” for infantry soldiers:

His idea is to develop something that is part wheel, part leg, combining the strengths of both. It’s not a matter of reinventing the wheel so much as repackaging it.

‘Nature doesn’t generally use wheels,’ Hillis explains, ‘because although they are good for smooth surfaces, there are few smooth surfaces in nature. In fact we spent a great deal of effort building flat surfaces for wheels to roll on. It would be better to have a wheel which could go on any surface.’

Robot legs are complex and inefficient — typically they rely on dynamic stability, which means that a legged robot falls over when power turned off. Hillis built a large robot dinosaur for the Disney organisation, and says that the amazing thing is that it walks at all.

The new alternative would be as simple and cheap as a wheel but with the all-terrain capability of legs.

Let Those Dopers Be

Monday, October 17th, 2005

In Let Those Dopers Be, Norm Stamper, the former chief of the Seattle Police Department, answers the question, How would ‘regulated legalization’ work?

  1. Permit private companies to compete for licenses to cultivate, harvest, manufacture, package and peddle drugs.
  2. Create a new federal regulatory agency (with no apologies to libertarians or paleo-conservatives).
  3. Set and enforce standards of sanitation, potency and purity.
  4. Ban advertising.
  5. Impose (with congressional approval) taxes, fees and fines to be used for drug-abuse prevention and treatment and to cover the costs of administering the new regulatory agency.
  6. Police the industry much as alcoholic beverage control agencies keep a watch on bars and liquor stores at the state level. Such reforms would in no way excuse drug users who commit crimes: driving while impaired, providing drugs to minors, stealing an iPod or a Lexus, assaulting one’s spouse, abusing one’s child. The message is simple. Get loaded, commit a crime, do the time.

(Hat tip to Reason’s Hit and Run.)

Meth to the Madness

Monday, October 17th, 2005

NPR’s “On the Media” recently interviewed Nick Gillespie about the latest wave of “New Drug of Choice” stories in Meth to the Madness:

If you believe the coverage, Americans are using crystal meth at epidemic rates. Stories depict a killer drug that is instantly addictive, easy to cook up at home, and poised to tear apart families and communities. But Reason editor-in-chief Nick Gillespie is among the critics who say that the media are the ones with the drug problem. Gillespie makes his case for Bob.

Strange But True

Monday, October 17th, 2005

In Strange But True, Matthew Yglesias cites a fascinating passage from Franz de Waal’s new book, Our Inner Ape:

Scientists used to consider the frequency band of 500 hertz and below in the human voice as meaningless noise, because when a voice is filtered, removing all higher frequencies, one hears nothing but a low-pitched hum. All words are lost. But then it was found that this low hum is an unconscious social instrument. It is different for each person, but in the course of a conversation people tend to converge. They settle on a single hum, and it is always the lower status person who does the adjusting. This was first demonstrated in an analysis of the Larry King Live television show. The host, Larry King, would adjust his timbre to that of high-ranking guests, like Mike Wallace or Elizabeth Taylor. Low-ranking guests, on the other hand, would adjust their timbre to that of King. The clearest adjustment to King’s voice, indicating lack of confidence, came from former Vice President Dan Quayle.

The same spectral analysis has been applied to televised debates between U.S. presidential candidates. In all eight elections between 1960 and 2000 the popular vote matched the voice analysis: the majority of people voted for the candidate who held his own timbre rather than the one who adjusted.

(Hat tip to Tyler Cowen.)

Top 100 Public Intellectuals Results

Monday, October 17th, 2005

“FP and Britain’s Prospect magazine asked readers to vote for the top five public intellectuals from [their] Top 100,” and Tyler Cowen says, “Ugh to number one.” From the Top 100 Public Intellectuals Results:

  1. Noam Chomsky
  2. Umberto Eco
  3. Richard Dawkins
  4. Václav Havel
  5. Christopher Hitchens
  6. Paul Krugman
  7. Jürgen Habermas
  8. Amartya Sen
  9. Jared Diamond
  10. Salman Rushdie
  11. Naomi Klein
  12. Shirin Ebadi
  13. Hernando de Soto
  14. Bjørn Lomborg
  15. Abdolkarim Soroush
  16. Thomas Friedman
  17. Pope Benedict XVI
  18. Eric Hobsbawm
  19. Paul Wolfowitz
  20. Camille Paglia

For U.S. Military, A Key Iraq Mission Is Averting Civil War

Friday, October 14th, 2005

According to For U.S. Military, A Key Iraq Mission Is Averting Civil War, Sunnis and Shiites in largely Sunni Tal Afar got along and intermarried until the U.S. invaded then pulled out.

At that point the Sunnis feared a Shiite takeover and invited religious extremists in from Mosul and Syria:

In May 2005, not long after he arrived in the city, Col. Hickey sat in on the interrogation of a 17-year-old member of a Sunni assassination cell. Under questioning, the boy explained that his job was to hold the legs of the victim while someone else lopped off the head. When the interrogator asked the boy what he aspired to, ‘he responded that he wanted to be the guy who got to cut off the head,’ Col. Hickey recalls. ‘It was chilling.’

The Shiites responded by taking over the police force and turning it into a death squad.

And now Col. Hickey is trying to mediate between the two groups.

As Need for Data Storage Grows, A Dull Industry Gets an Upgrade

Friday, October 14th, 2005

From As Need for Data Storage Grows, A Dull Industry Gets an Upgrade:

Tollbooth attendants on Mexico’s federal highways handle nearly $2 billion in cash a year. Luis Gómez is watching them.

Mr. Gómez, the toll authority’s technology chief, has outfitted 800 tollbooths with a video system that records clerks who might skim from the till or take a bribe to let an 18-wheeler pass at automobile rates. Only partly deployed, the system has already deterred enough ‘voluntary and involuntary mistakes’ to raise toll revenue by $200,000, Mr. Gómez says.

The system has also been a boon for EMC Corp., of Hopkinton, Mass. That’s because Mr. Gómez’s tollbooth videos are stored digitally, recorded onto the spinning hard drives of 27 machines housed in refrigerator-sized cabinets. The agency paid EMC $4.5 million for the gear, related software, and services to set it all up.

I can’t help but ignore the big picture and ask, Was it worth $4.5 million to save $200,000? (How much do they expect to save per year, and what kind of discount rate are they looking at?)

D’oh! Arabized Simpsons Aren’t Getting Many Laughs

Friday, October 14th, 2005

How do you translate a comedy chock-full of cultural references? Badly, it would appear. From D’oh! Arabized Simpsons Aren’t Getting Many Laughs:

When an Arab satellite TV network, MBC, decided to introduce ‘The Simpsons’ to the Middle East, they knew the family would have to make some fundamental lifestyle changes.

‘Omar Shamshoon,’ as he is called on the show, looks like the same Homer Simpson, but he has given up beer and bacon, which are both against Islam, and he no longer hangs out at ‘seedy bars with bums and lowlifes.’ In Arabia, Homer’s beer is soda, and his hot dogs are barbequed Egyptian beef sausages. And the donut-shaped snacks he gobbles are the traditional Arab cookies called kahk.

An Arabized ‘Simpsons’ — called ‘Al Shamshoon’ — made its debut in the Arab world earlier this month, in time for Ramadan, a time of high TV viewership.