Evolutionary economics

Monday, July 18th, 2005

In Evolutionary economics, Bob Rowthorn reviews Paul Ormerod’s latest book, Why Most Things Fail:

Ormerod gives many examples of social interaction leading to outcomes which are impossible to predict. The most striking example is Schelling’s model of residential segregation. In the US, there are few racially mixed communities and most blacks and whites live in neighbourhoods which are populated almost entirely by their own kind. This might suggest that there is a strong antipathy between the two groups. Yet a large amount of evidence suggests that this is not the case. Most blacks and whites would like to live in neighbourhoods where their racial group is in a majority, but they are perfectly happy to have a large minority of people from the other group as neighbours.

To explore the implication of such preferences, Schelling ran a number of simulations in which individuals were allowed to move house if they found themselves surrounded by too many of the other racial group. These simulations demonstrated two things. In the course of time, the typical result was that blacks and whites spontaneously relocated themselves into highly segregated neighbourhoods. It was impossible to predict where the boundaries of these neighbourhoods would lie or where any particular individual would end up. But it was a safe bet that the bulk of people would end up surrounded largely by people of their own race. This outcome showed clearly that social interaction may magnify small variations into very large differences. It also showed the limitations of the conventional approach to social phenomena, which assumes that large differences must have large causes.

But whose law should prevail?

Monday, July 18th, 2005

But whose law should prevail? discusses “church, state, and the courts in America”:

The first sign of secularism in American politics came in the late 19th century, largely to camouflage sectarian anti-Catholicism. Nobody objected to public schools teaching the Bible — indeed politicians would have been horrified by any school that did not — as long as it was the Protestant version. When Irish immigrants wanted to use their Catholic version, the Republicans came up with a series of crafty provisions to ban public money from helping teach popish nonsense.

A Poverty of Dignity and a Wealth of Rage

Monday, July 18th, 2005

Thomas Friedman notes an unpopular fact in A Poverty of Dignity and a Wealth of Rage:

There are a lot of angry people in the world. Angry Mexicans. Angry Africans. Angry Norwegians. But the only ones who seem to feel entitled and motivated to kill themselves and totally innocent people, including other Muslims, over their anger are young Sunni radicals. What is going on?

The End of Europe

Monday, July 18th, 2005

From The End of Europe:

Consider some contrasts with the United States, as reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. With high unemployment benefits, almost half of Western Europe’s jobless have been out of work a year or more; the U.S. figure is about 12 percent. Or take early retirement. In 2003 about 60 percent of Americans ages 55 to 64 had jobs. The comparable figures for France, Italy and Germany were 37 percent, 30 percent and 39 percent. The truth is that Europeans like early retirement, high jobless benefits and long vacations.

Gangster’s birthday party spells panic in Rio

Monday, July 18th, 2005

If you go to Brazil, stick to the areas your Brazilian friends recommend. From Gangster’s birthday party spells panic in Rio:

Rio has one of the world’s highest murder rates, with many of the deaths in slums where drug gangs rule. More than 1,200 people were killed in the first three months of this year, including deaths due to police enforcement, official figures show.

Police killed nearly 1,000 people last year, about the same as in 2003, with human rights groups accusing authorities of excessive violence.

Actor Vince Vaughn: Everybody’s Buddy

Sunday, July 17th, 2005

NPR recently replayed an old interview with Actor Vince Vaughn: Everybody’s Buddy, who co-stars in Wedding Crashers, which opened this weekend.

Research Changes Ideas About Children and Work

Sunday, July 17th, 2005

From Research Changes Ideas About Children and Work:

When Americans think about child labor in poor countries, they rarely picture girls fetching water or boys tending livestock. Yet most of the 211 million children, ages 5 to 14, who work worldwide are not in factories. They are working in agriculture — from 92 percent in Vietnam to 63 percent in Guatemala — and most are not paid directly.

‘Contrary to popular perception in high-income countries, most working children are employed by their parents rather than in manufacturing establishments or other forms of wage employment,’ two Dartmouth economists, Eric V. Edmonds and Nina Pavcnik, wrote in ‘Child Labor in the Global Economy,’ published in the Winter 2005 Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Families don’t make their children work out of heartless callousness:

When he started working on child labor issues six years ago, Professor Edmonds said in an interview, “the conventional view was that child labor really wasn’t about poverty.” Children’s work, many policy makers believed, “reflected perhaps parental callousness or a lack of education for parents about the benefits of educating your child.” So policies to curb child labor focused on educating parents about why their children should not work and banning children’s employment to remove the temptation.

Recent research, however, casts doubt on the cultural explanation. “In every context that I’ve looked at things, child labor seems to be almost entirely about poverty. I wouldn’t say it’s only about poverty, but it’s got a lot to do with poverty,” Professor Edmonds said.

As families’ incomes increase, children tend to stop working and, where schools are available, they go to school. If family incomes drop, children are more likely to return to work.

When Vietnam suddenly allowed rice exports, it made rice farming much more lucrative:

In the interview, Professor Edmonds said he expected that the booming market for rice would lead more children to work in agriculture, if only on their own families’ farms, because the value of their labor had risen substantially. But that was not what happened.

“Instead, it looks like what households did was, with rising income, they purchased substitutes for child labor. They used more fertilizers. There was more mechanization, more purchasing of tools,” he said, adding, “It was the opposite of what I expected to find coming in.”

Simulations of Attacks By Terrorists Illustrate Challenge Officials Face

Friday, July 15th, 2005

From Simulations of Attacks By Terrorists Illustrate Challenge Officials Face:

Sometimes there is no ‘right’ response, except in retrospect. If, after a bombing, you dispatch scores of medical, fire and police personnel to evacuate the wounded and secure the scene, many of them will die if terrorists have set a second bomb to detonate there. If you first order the bomb squad to sweep the area, the delay may doom the wounded.

‘A terrorist incident is different from an accident or natural disaster,’ says J. Richard Russo of Cornell University, an expert in decision making. ‘You’re dealing with an intelligent opponent. If you prepare for A and they find that out, they’ll go to B.’

Even absent clearly right responses, ‘there are definitely wrong responses,’ says Col. Dave McIntyre, director of the Integrative Center for Homeland Security at Texas A&M University and former dean of the Naval War College. If both EMT and fire crews are sent to the site of an attack, for instance, authorities have no one to dispatch if there is a second attack. If officials don’t close the first freeway exits out of a city, evacuees will all slow down to get off at the first opportunity (Col. McIntyre says everyone makes a beeline for the first motel), hopelessly snarling traffic all the way back to the city.

‘And if you fail to tell people within 30 minutes of an attack that their kids are safe and being sheltered in place, it’s too late to tell parents not to go pick them up,’ says Col. McIntyre. ‘Then the fire chief tells you he can’t get his people to the attack site because the roads are jammed.

When Bad Chickens Come Home to Roost, Results Can Be Good

Friday, July 15th, 2005

When Bad Chickens Come Home to Roost, Results Can Be Good describes a refuge for ex-cockfighters — the actual roosters. A little bit about the “sport”:

Cockfights are legal only in Louisiana and New Mexico, but illegal combats and betting are common throughout the country, where there are an estimated 100,000 gamecock breeders. The fights, which take place in an enclosed area, end when one of the duelers dies or one of the handlers concedes victory. They can last more than 30 minutes and can generate tens of thousands of dollars in winnings.

To prepare the birds, breeders trim their combs, wattles and earlobes to reduce weight. They inject the roosters with testosterone and methamphetamines and snip their spurs — nails on the back of rooster legs — replacing them with 3-inch steel blades. The roosters fly up into the air and dig the blades into rivals’ flesh.

Schwarzenegger making millions as muscle mag editor

Thursday, July 14th, 2005

The man knows how to make money. From Schwarzenegger making millions as muscle mag editor:

Arnold Schwarzenegger may be forgoing a state salary as California governor but he is still pulling in millions of dollars a year as an editor of two bodybuilding magazines.

American Media Operations, which publishes ‘Muscle & Fitness’ and ‘Flex’ magazines, said on Wednesday it was paying the former Mr. Olympia $8.15 million over five years to serve as executive editor of those magazines.

The Seat-Belt Solution

Thursday, July 14th, 2005

Freakonomists Dubner and Levitt look at car seats in The Seat-Belt Solution:

They certainly have the hallmarks of an effective piece of safety equipment: big and bulky, federally regulated, hard to install and expensive. (You can easily spend $200 on a car seat.) And NHTSA data seem to show that car seats are indeed a remarkable lifesaver. Although motor-vehicle crashes are still the top killer among children from 2 to 14, fatality rates have fallen steadily in recent decades — a drop that coincides with the rise of car-seat use. Perhaps the single most compelling statistic about car seats in the NHTSA manual was this one: ”They are 54 percent effective in reducing deaths for children ages 1 to 4 in passenger cars.”

But 54 percent effective compared with what? The answer, it turns out, is this: Compared with a child’s riding completely unrestrained. There is another mode of restraint, meanwhile, that doesn’t cost $200 or require a four-day course to master: seat belts.

For children younger than roughly 24 months, seat belts plainly won’t do. For them, a car seat represents the best practical way to ride securely, and it is certainly an improvement over the days of riding shotgun on mom’s lap. But what about older children? Is it possible that seat belts might afford them the same protection as car seats?

The answer can be found in a trove of government data called the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), which compiles police reports on all fatal crashes in the U.S. since 1975. These data include every imaginable variable in a crash, including whether the occupants were restrained and how.

Even a quick look at the FARS data reveals a striking result: among children 2 and older, the death rate is no lower for those traveling in any kind of car seat than for those wearing seat belts.

The Computer That Said No To Drugs

Thursday, July 14th, 2005

You simply can’t make up something like The Computer That Said No To Drugs.

Speed of Apple Intel dev systems impress developers

Thursday, July 14th, 2005

AppleInsider claims that the speed of Apple Intel dev systems impress developers:

The systems started shipping to Mac OS X developers three weeks ago, each equipped with a 3.6 GHz Intel Pentium 4 processor with 2 MB L2 Cache, 800MHz front-side bus, 1GB of 533MHz DDR2 Dual Channel SDRAM, and an Intel Graphics Media Accelerator 900.

Developers are renting the $999 hardware from Apple for a period of 18 months in order to get a head start in porting their applications to run on the Intel version of Mac OS X.

‘It’s fast,’ said one developer source of Mac OS X running on Intel’s Pentium processors. ‘Faster than [Mac OS X] on my Dual 2GHz Power Mac G5.’ In addition to booting Windows XP at blazing speeds, the included version of Mac OS X for Intel takes ‘as little as 10 seconds’ to boot to the Desktop from when the Apple logo first displays on screen.

Included with the Mac OS X for Intel distribution is an Applications folder stocked with a mixture of PowerPC and Intel-native applications. Applications that are compiled only for PowerPC processors are of filetype ‘Application (PowerPC)’ whereas Intel-native binaries are labeled of standard type ‘Application’.

Developers sources say the early version of Rosetta, a dynamic binary translator that is designed to run unaltered PowerPC applications on Intel Macs, is also impressive. ‘Rosetta is completely 100 percent seamless and nothing like the Classic environment used to run older Mac OS 8 and 9 applications under Mac OS X,’ one source told AppleInsider.

Let a Thousand Licensed Poppies Bloom

Wednesday, July 13th, 2005

Let a Thousand Licensed Poppies Bloom offers a solution that kills two birds with one stone:

The United Nations estimated that Afghanistan produced more than 4,200 tons of opium last year; cultivation jumped to 323,701 acres from 197,680 acres in 2003. Ten percent of the Afghan population is believed to be involved in the trade, which supplies nearly 90 percent of the world’s illegal heroin. Clearly, this drug war is not being won.

The global pain crisis is just as daunting. The World Health Organization has said that opioids are ‘absolutely necessary’ for treating severe pain. But half the world’s countries use them only rarely if at all even for the dying, and even though research shows that addiction is exceedingly uncommon among pain patients without a history of it.

Here in the United States, only half of all dying patients receive adequate relief, and those suffering from chronic non-cancer pain are even more likely to be undermedicated. Senlis estimates that meeting the global need for pain medications would require 10,000 tons of opium a year — more than twice Afghanistan’s current production.

One Longsome Argument

Wednesday, July 13th, 2005

One Longsome Argument provides an evolutionary-psych explanation for why people don’t believe in evolution:

Like most mystic mindsets, creationist beliefs are normally instilled at an early age, nurtured by well-meaning parents and sustained by religious organizations whose vested leaders are traditionally loath to amend church doctrine in the face of emergent scientific facts. Though seemingly antithetic to the inquisitive nature of our species, the rote acceptance of received wisdom has been a hallmark of human culture almost from the get-go, arising initially as a benign behavioral adaptation geared to promote the rapid transfer of communal survival skills to our young hominid forebears. It was only with the advent of modern civilization that this age-old habit finally began to outlive its usefulness and yield serious negative consequences-most notably by granting gratuitous momentum to all kinds of ill-conceived notions about how the world is ‘supposed’ to work. Today, this surge of ideological inertia remains a surprisingly powerful force, pushing beliefs as impossibly anachronistic as geocentrism and flat-Earth cosmology past the ramparts of the enlightenment to foul the fringes of modern thought.