Work & Family comments on the heavily quoted 50% divorce rate:
The belief that one out of every two American marriages ends in divorce is widespread. But the heavily quoted 50% figure is actually an informed guess based on sociologists’ projections of how many marriages are likely to end in divorce or separation before one of the spouses dies. Like any broad measure, that number can be misleading when applied to individual couples.The divorce rate varies widely based on your age at marriage, income, education, length of marriage, race and other factors. And some studies even suggest the lifetime probability of divorce may be declining — particularly among certain groups. As a result, divorce can be an isolating, stigmatizing experience for many people.
As a college-educated, church-going suburb-dweller, Mr. Teusink inhabited a group with a relatively low probability of divorce. Couples from central cities are nine percentage points more likely to crash and burn than couples from the suburbs, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Regional differences also factor in: Couples who live in the South are 10 points more likely to divorce or separate than couples from the Northeast or Midwest. (Western couples fall about midway between the two.)
Some stats from the article:
Risk Factors
Divorce rates can vary significantly. Here are the percentage-point increases in the probability of divorce or separation during the first 10 years of marriage, depending on a variety of factors:
Annual income under $25,000 vs. over $50,000 +30 Having a baby before marriage vs. seven months or more afterward +24 Marrying under 18 years of age vs. 25 or over +24 Own parents divorced, vs. intact family of origin +14 No religious affiliation +14 High-school dropout vs. some college +13 Central-city vs. suburb dweller +9 Source: National Center for Health Statistics