How Do You Keep the Public Shopping? Just Make People Sad

Friday, March 19th, 2004

How Do You Keep the Public Shopping? Just Make People Sad shares some fascinating studies in behavioral economics:

Some behavioral economists are now turning to the role of emotions, too, investigating how heart strings affect purse strings. Last year, researchers found that anger makes people assess situations more optimistically, downplaying risks and overestimating potential benefits (which may explain why one chronically grouchy investor I know loads up on junk bonds and is low on cash). Fear does the opposite, making us exaggerate risks and minimize benefits. In fearful times, more people gravitate toward bank CDs.

To see how two negative emotions, disgust and sadness, affect economic decision making, Prof. Lerner and her colleagues recruited 199 volunteers, age 16 to 49. Some watched a scene from the 1979 tearjerker “The Champ,” in which a boy’s father dies. Others watched the infamous filthy-toilet clip from the 1996 Gen-X hit “Trainspotting.” A third group watched an emotionally neutral clip of coral reef fish. All wrote down how they felt afterward.

Half the volunteers, drawn equally from the three film audiences, then got a set of highlighter pens (a hot commodity at CMU) and the chance to sell it back at any price from 50 cents to $14. The other half were just shown the set and asked if they would rather receive it or get cash. This was akin to a purchase, because volunteers who opted for the pens had to forgo money for them.

Disgust, the researchers suspect, makes people want to get rid of things; they seem to feel everything is tainted. Sadness, in contrast, often reflects loss and helplessness, and so makes people want to change their circumstances. These effects carried over into the experimental marketplace.

Disgust cut people’s selling prices, as the “yuck” factor made them eager to get rid of the pens. Volunteers who felt disgust were willing to unload the pens for only $2.74, on average, compared with the $4.58 demanded by the emotionally neutral fish-watchers. Disgust also reduced buying prices. Reluctant to take on anything new, the volunteers would do so only at a rock-bottom price. Yet they had no idea their feelings were affecting their economic decisions.

Sadness, too, cut people’s selling price, to $3.06, compared with what emotionally neutral volunteers demanded for their pens. Feeling blue made people so desperate for change, even one as inconsequential as getting rid of a few pens, that they held a fire sale. Sadness also raised, to $4.57, the price people would pay for the very pens they were willing to sell for just $3.06. Overpaying seemed a small price for change.

This was a 180-degree reversal of one of the core tenets of behavioral economics. Called the endowment effect, it is the tendency for people to demand a higher price for something they own than they are willing to pay to buy the same item. Psychologically, we place greater value on what we already have. Yet if you’ve ever overpaid for something, you know there are exceptions.

The CMU results may explain why. “Sadness reverses the endowment effect, making people willing to pay a higher price for something than they were willing to sell it for,” says Prof. Lerner. That fits with the common observation that compulsive shoppers tend toward depression and that having a really bad day can trigger a shopping spree.

Cold-War Thinking Prevented Vital Vehicle From Reaching Iraq

Friday, March 19th, 2004

The Humvee, the modern successor to the Jeep, has a thin sheet-metal skin that won’t stop even small-caliber handgun rounds. “On the eve of the war in Iraq, just 2% of the Army’s world-wide fleet of 110,000 Humvees were armored,” according to Cold-War Thinking Prevented Vital Vehicle From Reaching Iraq:

When the Humvee was first developed in the 1980s as an all-purpose transport vehicle, armoring it made little sense. Back then, the Army was preparing to fight the Soviets on a battlefield where heavily armored tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles were out front, providing a line of defense for Humvees and supply trucks in the rear.

In 1992, O’Gara-Hess & Eisenhardt Armoring Co., a small Fairfield, Ohio, company that made armored cars and wanted to break into the military market, built the first armored Humvee on spec to show the Army what it could do. “We could see how warfare was changing in places like Panama and Colombia,” says Robert Mecredy, president of the aerospace and defense division of Armor Holdings Inc., O’Gara-Hess’s parent.

A few months later, soldiers cruising the streets of Somalia in a thin-skinned Humvee ran over a land mine. Four Americans died, and the Army issued an urgent call to field 10 of the early armored Humvees. The vehicles were being offloaded in Mogadishu when Army Rangers got into a nightlong firefight that killed 18 Americans — many of them fighting from thin-skinned Humvees.

Days later the Army withdrew, leaving a small contingent of Marines. When the Army tried to take the armored Humvees back to the U.S., the Marines protested. “I got a frantic call from a captain telling me the Marines weren’t going to let the Army take their [armored] Humvees home,” recalls retired Lt. Col. J.C. Hudson, who accompanied the armored vehicles to Mogadishu. Col. Hudson says he told the young captain to let the Marines keep the vehicles.

In the wake of the Somalia debacle, Army officials in charge of the Humvee program were eager to find a niche for the armored version, which at $180,000 costs more than twice as much as the regular vehicle. The program’s most enthusiastic backers were military police, who specialize in riot control, peacekeeping and stabilizing an area following combat.

But officials involved in the program worried that the Army might not embrace a peacekeeping vehicle. They were also concerned the relatively small military-police force, which boasts no three- or four-star generals, lacked “the horsepower to get the armored Humvee built,” says John Weaver, an Army program manager who oversaw the service’s Humvee fleet. So Mr. Weaver and his colleagues instead pitched the armored Humvee as a scout vehicle that would venture out in front of the tanks during big battles and beam back information about the enemy.

The armored Humvee proved terrible at that job. Early test vehicles were too heavy, and whenever they ventured off road in soft soil they got stuck in the mud. Senior officers in the Army’s armor school, which trains and equips the service’s heavy-tank force, wanted to kill the armored-Humvee program entirely.

Yahoo! News – Crowd Storms Restaurant Over Alcohol

Friday, March 19th, 2004

Bahrain is one of the more liberal Islamic states. From Yahoo! News – Crowd Storms Restaurant Over Alcohol:

Some 100 Bahraini Islamists shouting ‘God is Greatest’ stormed a French restaurant serving alcohol in the pro-Western Gulf Arab state and threatened diners with knives, witnesses said on Thursday.

One diner managed to wrest a knife away from the Islamists and stabbed one with it, causing him severe injuries, a witness said.

They said the assailants, opposed to the consumption of alcohol banned by Islam, also threw gasoline bombs at customers’ cars parked outside the restaurant near the capital Manama late on Wednesday, damaging nine vehicles.

‘Abound 100 young men, shouting Allahu Akbar (God is greatest), came to the restaurant carrying knives and shouted at the customers: Why do you drink?,’ Jahanshah Bakhtiar, owner of La Terrasse Restaurant, told Reuters.

‘They were acting as if they had the right ideas and people should obey them,’ he said, adding that there were about 40 customers in the restaurant.

You gotta love that one diner.

Pripyat Ghost Town

Thursday, March 18th, 2004

Pripyat Ghost Town tells a peculiar story, in broken English (with an almost audible Russian accent), about one young lady’s peculiar motorcyle tour — “a story about town where one can ride fast, with no stoplights, no police, no danger to hit some cage or some dog…” The town? Pripyat — four kilometers north of Chernobyl.

Very eerie. (Hat tip to Todd for the link.)

Edit: The original link has died. Here’s a newer link.

With Food Sales Flat, Nestle Stakes Future on Healthier Fare

Thursday, March 18th, 2004

I’m a bit nervous for any company staking its future on healthier fare. From With Food Sales Flat, Nestle Stakes Future on Healthier Fare:

With the industry facing stagnant sales growth, Nestle is looking for growth in the intersection of food and pharmaceuticals — a niche of nutritionally enhanced products known in the business as ‘phood.’ The company is betting that health-conscious consumers will pay more for fare that provides health benefits such as lowering cholesterol or aiding digestion.

Phood. I like that. Almost as clever as pharm animals.

Anyway, it sounds like they’ve come up with some interesting phoods. Whether they’ll make any money is the real question:

Nestle sells a breakfast bar called Nestival containing carbohydrates that are absorbed slowly and make people feel full more quickly. It has developed a type of milk protein that could help fight cavities, and a chocolate component that limits the absorption of “bad” cholesterol. And it has won regulatory approval for a cholesterol-lowering ingredient for products such as juice and ice cream.

Its most ambitious project — a line of yogurts called LC1, designed to help digestion and boost the immune system — was a bust in a number of European markets in the late 1990s. Other companies have also struggled to make nutritionally boosted food a success. Campbell Soup Co.’s Intelligent Quisine cholesterol-lowering meals flopped in the late 1990s. In 2001, Swiss pharmaceuticals company Novartis AG dropped Aviva, a line of foods jointly developed with Quaker Oats Co. that were designed to boost heart, bone and digestive health. The venture lasted about 18 months, and the products were launched in a number of European markets.

I didn’t realize Nestle’s history:

Nestle, which has $69 billion in sales and sells its products in 120 countries, has a long history of crossing food and science. The company was founded in 1866 when Henri Nestle, a German pharmacist who saw five of his 13 siblings die as children, invented baby formula.

Beyond the Bubble

Thursday, March 18th, 2004

The Wall Street Journal has an amusing summary, Beyond the Bubble, of what happened to some of the Internet bubble’s high-flyers:

Amazon’s price-to-earnings ratio soared beyond 400, an astronomical level, and its stock surged toward $100 a share, pushing its market capitalization beyond those of Disney, Colgate and J.P. Morgan at the time.

But the Internet retailer lost the adoring gaze of investors in the past four years, and its stock fall as low as $10 a share.

Amazon’s now over $40 a share.

EBay amazes me:

EBay is one the bubble’s rare success stories. Even as the rah-rah atmosphere of the ’90s evaporated, the online auction site thrived, regularly posting quarterly sales growth above 80%. No company could sustain such performance interminably, though, and eBay’s empire has shown signs of stabilizing.

EBay’s growth now is coming from beyond U.S. shores, and favorable exchange rates have helped pad the bottom line. But that area too may be maturing. Overseas sales growth slowed to 97% in the latest period — slipping into the double-digits for the first time ever, and big vendors at home have been griping about problems. Nonetheless, the company is expanding at a faster rate than other U.S. corporate giants like Microsoft and Wal-Mart at comparable points in their development, says Chief Executive Meg Whitman.

EBay raised its revenue forecast for 2004 by $100 million. Over the last year, eBay’s stock is up 73% — higher than during the bubble. But the shares are pricey, trading at 65 times projected earnings, compared with 18 for the Standard & Poor’s 500.

Lucent sells for less than $4 a share:

For an epochal tale of the excesses of the bubble, it would be tough to do better than Lucent. The company’s shares soared to a split-adjusted high of $62 in late 1999 and management told investors to expect sales growth of 20% a year — all of which seemed reasonable as companies prepared to cope with breathless projections about growth in Internet traffic. But the bottom fell out. Lucent heaped discounts on customers and even loaned companies money to buy its products as it scrambled to meet its unrealistic projections.

WSJ.com – More Work Is Outsourced to U.S. Than Away From It, Data Show

Thursday, March 18th, 2004

The Wall Street Journal now has a dedicated Understanding Outsourcing page. It’s obviously a hot topic — and people definitely need help understanding outsourcing. From WSJ.com – More Work Is Outsourced to U.S. Than Away From It, Data Show:

Despite the political outcry over the outsourcing of white-collar jobs to such places as India and Ghana, the latest U.S. government data suggest that foreigners outsource far more office work to the U.S. than American companies send abroad.

The value of U.S. exports of legal work, computer programming, telecommunications, banking, engineering, management consulting and other private services jumped to $131.01 billion in 2003, up $8.42 billion from the previous year, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Imports of such private services — a category that encompasses U.S. outsourcing of call centers and data entry to developing nations, among other things — hit $77.38 billion for the year, up $7.94 billion from 2002. Measuring imports against exports, the U.S. posted a $53.64 billion surplus last year in trade in private services with the rest of the world.

WSJ.com – Home Economics

Thursday, March 18th, 2004

Housewares You Never Knew You Needed describes some of the gadgets on display at the International Home & Housewares Show in Chicago this weekend:

One potential miracle worker is the space-saving Snap-Saver No-Brainer Container, a set of storage bowls whose lids, when not in use, snap neatly into their bottoms, eliminating the always annoying search for a top that fits.

[...]

onvenience combined with hygiene is also the pitch for TxF Products’ Scrub ‘N Flush, a toilet-cleaning tool that features a single-use brush head made of wood pulp that disintegrates after about a minute of scrubbing. Once used, the head can be ejected into the bowl and flushed away like toilet paper.

[...]

L’Equip’s R.P.M. Blender, is aiming more for the swoosh, which is why it has a tachometer display instead of the more conventional blend-chop-puree settings. The unit, which will retail for about $149, has a brushed-metal commercial grade design to match its racy style, all part of a push to market it especially to “motorheads and speed enthusiasts,” says L’Equip’s Cheryl Slavinsky. “No one has ever put a tachometer on a blender before.”

[...]

It’s also hard to know what to think of another new trend from Europe, which will be featured by two companies, Toastabags and Toast-It Toaster Bags. Simply put, you can insert sandwiches or pizza — or anything else that you might want to put in a toaster oven or grill — into top-opening bags made of heat-resistant material and then stick them into a regular toaster to get cooked. Both brands of toaster bags are reusable and cost from around $6 to $10 a set. Both manufacturers claim that their aim is to provide a muss-free method of making things like grilled cheese without having to buy another appliance.

I may need that RPM blender…

AMES Scientists Working on Silent Communication Technology

Thursday, March 18th, 2004

NASA scientists have developed a system to read the nerve signals associated with speech. From AMES Scientists Working on Silent Communication Technology:

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration researchers have found that placing small button-sized sensors under the chin and on either side of the Adam’s Apple could gather nerve signals that can be processed by a computer and translated into words.

‘What is analyzed is silent, or subauditory, speech, such as when a person silently reads or talks to himself. Biological signals arise when reading or speaking to oneself with or without actual lip or facial movement,” NASA scientist Chuck Jorgensen said.

In their first experiment, Jorgensen’s team created special software that recognized six words and 10 digits that the researchers repeated subvocally. Initial results were an average of 92 percent accurate.

I don’t believe the system recognizes words per se, but letters that can spell out words — at least going by this quote:

“We took the alphabet and put it into a matrix-like a calendar. We numbered the columns and rows, and we could identify each letter with a pair of single-digit numbers,” Jorgensen said. “So we silently spelled out NASA and then submitted it to a well-known Web search engine. We electronically numbered the Web pages that came up as search results. We used numbers again to choose Web pages to examine. This proved we could browse the Web without touching a keyboard.”

I love the hypothetical scenarios they have to fabricate to justify their research:

If perfected the system could allow injured astronauts to control their spacecraft or other machines without using their hands.

Yeah, that’s a common problem.

Real-World Labor Issues Too Much for MTV

Thursday, March 18th, 2004

MTV’s “The Real World” was coming to Philadelphia in just three short weeks. Then the unions started picketing. From Yahoo! News – Real-World Labor Issues Too Much for MTV:

Bunim/Murray Productions said Tuesday it had given up plans to tape the 15th season of ‘The Real World’ in Philadelphia. Taping had been set to begin in three weeks.

The production company had angered labor unions by hiring a nonunion company to renovate the former Seamen’s Church Institute in Old City, where it planned to have seven strangers live together and have their lives videotaped. Members of the building trades unions picketed outside the building.

[...]

“I’ve got kids looking at me like I killed Santa Claus,” Pat Gillespie, president of the powerful Building Trades Council, said Wednesday. “Look, they come into our town and make a decision to avoid union workers. Whether they were prepared for what would happen, it was a conscious decision that they made.”

So the unions cut off their nose to spite their face, and MTV wasn’t prepared for what would happen?

Space Race Titan William Pickering Dead at 93

Thursday, March 18th, 2004

I really should read a good history of the space race. From Space Race Titan William Pickering Dead at 93:

William H. Pickering, a central figure in the early U.S. space race who as director of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory played a key role in launching America’s first satellite into orbit, has died at age 93, NASA said on Tuesday.
[...]
A native of New Zealand who immigrated to the United States in 1929 as a student, Pickering obtained bachelor and master’s degrees in electrical engineering, then a PhD. in physics from Caltech before becoming an engineering professor there in 1946. He became a U.S. citizen in 1941.

“William Pickering was one of New Zealand’s most distinguished sons. His passing is a tremendous loss,” New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark said in a statement.

Pickering began working on guided missile research for JPL in 1944, when the laboratory was administered by the U.S. Army, and was project manager for Corporal, the first operational missile system developed there. The Sergeant solid-fuel missile was later developed under his direction.

Pickering was named JPL director in 1954 and three years later faced perhaps his greatest challenge as the Soviet Union stunned the world by successfully launching Sputnik into orbit on Oct. 4, 1957, ushering in the dawn of the space age and the U.S.-Soviet space race.

The following month, JPL and the Army Ballistic Missile Agency were assigned to put the first U.S. satellite into orbit. Pickering directed the JPL effort, which in just 83 days provided the satellite, telecommunications and upper rocket stages that successfully lofted Explorer 1 on Jan. 31, 1958. That triumph followed the embarrassing failure the previous month of the first U.S. attempt to launch a satellite, Vanguard 1, a separate project managed by the Naval Research Laboratory.

Instruments carried by Explorer 1, and its successor, Explorer 3, provided evidence that the Earth is surrounded by intense bands of radiation, named the Van Allen belts, one of the first major scientific discoveries of the space age. It was considered Pickering’s greatest achievement and set the stage for future space exploration.

Mr. Invisible and the Secret Mission to Hollywood

Thursday, March 18th, 2004

The more I see and hear about Sky Captain, the more I think it’s right up my alley. From Mr. Invisible and the Secret Mission to Hollywood:

Set in 1939, the movie stars Jude Law as the daring flying ace Sky Captain, who teams up with his former flame, the intrepid reporter Polly Perkins, played by Gwyneth Paltrow, as they track down a mysterious mad scientist named Totenkopf. It is in part a nostalgic homage to the movies of the 30′s and 40′s: the hammy fisticuffs and golly-inspiring proto-technology of sci-fi cliffhangers like ”Flash Gordon” alongside the snappy patter (and even snappier clothes) of the era’s noir thrillers.

I may have to try this:

But like the old serials it emulates, ”Sky Captain” is mainly preoccupied with the strange promises of the future. The astonishing things you will see in the world of tomorrow include: an immense, silvery zeppelin docking at the Empire State Building; an elephant that fits in the palm of your hand; a troop of giant robots marching down Sixth Avenue and the carpet at Radio City Music Hall. None of these things actually exist, though. Conran has not constructed a single set or miniature. Rather, they are computer images, built and animated in a virtual 3-D environment, or stitched together from photographs, which are then draped around the flesh-and-blood actors, who have been shot separately on an empty set in front of a blank ”blue-screen” background, along with those few minimal props with which they actually interact (a ray gun, a robot blueprint, a bottle of milk of magnesia). The film, in other words, is one long special effect with Jude-Law-size holes in it.

”The goal was to make a live-action film, but to use conventions of traditional animation,” Conran said. The reason? ”First and foremost, to do it cheaper.” It’s a model that would appeal to anyone who, like Conran, does not seem entirely comfortable spending other people’s money; to anyone who might dream of shooting in Nepal or Paris (or in the 1930′s) but doesn’t have the means to get there; to anyone who is shy.

For Conran, the question, as he put it, was ”Could you be ambitious and make a film of some scope without ever leaving your room?” And so 10 years ago, Kerry Conran went into a room in his apartment to make a movie. In some ways, he is just now beginning to come out of it.

[...]

He realized he could build whatever he wanted, and what’s more, it could be gigantic. Rockets that dwarfed skyscrapers. Airplane hangars so large that you could not see someone on the other side. Because, he explained, ”what does it cost to hit the scale button and make something enormous? Nothing.”

And it didn’t matter whether the actors were on a big expensive sound stage or in Conran’s tiny apartment. By 1994, he had struck upon the idea of filming an entire movie by himself, at home, with a blue screen set up right in his apartment. He began to create what he was calling ”the World of Tomorrow.”

If I may geek out for a moment, this sounds awesome:

Together, Kerry and Kevin [his brother] filigreed the film with cathedral-like touches that only they and the angels will see: the ship that carried King Kong in the 1933 movie, lying on the ocean floor; a line of deactivated robots, leaning against a wall in the exact same positions the Fleischer brothers had them in their moody 1941 Superman cartoon, ”The Mechanical Monsters.”

It Doesn’t Grow On Trees

Thursday, March 18th, 2004

I can remember having to mow the lawn if I wanted my $5 allowance. Things have changed. From It Doesn’t Grow On Trees:

In 2002, teens accounted for more than $170 billion in spending, an increase of 38 percent from five years ago. Teens spend an average of $92 per week, and most receive money on an as-needed basis from their parents as opposed to getting a strict, defined allowance.
[...]
Allowances have been rising at nearly twice the rate of inflation with the average allowance for a child today being $11.79 per week.

Tomorrow’s Soldier Today

Monday, March 15th, 2004

This year’s DARPATech conference is chock full of whiz-bang gizmos destined for the pages of Popular Mechanics. Tomorrow’s Soldier Today by Phil Carter describes a few, starting with the Phraselator:

Some of the displays show DARPA success stories — projects conceived by the research agency that have actually made it into production. One example is the Phraselator, a brick-sized one-way translation device designed for use by U.S. soldiers in countries where they don’t know the language and don’t have time to learn it. Each hand-held unit uses an SD card — the same one used by many digital cameras — that store up to 30,000 common phrases useful for law enforcement, first aid, or war-fighting. To make the device work, a soldier simply says a phrase (such as “Stop at this checkpoint”) into the device, and a few seconds later, the Phraselator repeats it in the chosen language — Urdu, Arabic, Pashto, and Korean are available, to name a few. So far, more than 600 of these devices have been shipped to American units in the field — including 15 programmed with Haitian dialects dispatched with U.S. troops to Haiti. (Listen to the Phraselator’s Arabic mode here.)

Of course, I can’t help but think of the old Doonesbury cartoons making fun of the Apple Newton’s handwriting recognition. Just how many ways could the Phraselator go wrong?

This next, related technology sounds mundane, yet interesting:

A similar program under development is the Rapid Tactical Language Training System, essentially a video game that allows soldiers to learn conversational Arabic in 80 hours of training. Players learn by negotiating various situations, like getting information from men at a cafe, and suffer negative repercussions in the game when they get a phrase or gesture wrong. So far, the system has been tested on college students at the University of Southern California, and future tests are planned on students at West Point and soldiers at Fort Bragg, N.C.

They’re also showing off BLEEX.

How bestsellers have changed

Monday, March 15th, 2004

How bestsellers have changed lists some “facts of import” from a USA Today article on the book business:

  1. Never have so many books been published: in the U.S. more than 1,000 new titles a week, nearly double the rate in 1993.

  2. Aggregate book sales are flat.
  3. ‘[L]ast year the average American spent more time on the Internet (about three hours a week) than reading books (about two hours a week). And…the average American adult spent more money last year on movies, videos and DVDs ($166) than on books ($90).’
  4. Bestsellers (top ten in the major categories) account for only 4% of book sales.
  5. Amazon, Barnes&Noble.com and BookSense.com account for 8% of U.S. book sales.
  6. Discount stores and price clubs account for 11% of U.S. book sales.
  7. Humor books have fallen from 5.3% of the bestsellers market in 1995 to 0.6% today.
  8. The Cliff Notes version of The Scarlet Letter outsells the real thing by 3 to 1.
  9. In August dictionaries are 77% of all reference book sales. Otherwise they run less than five percent of the total.