Intergenerational Income Immobility

Sunday, July 10th, 2016

By tracking family names over generations, Gregory Clark revealed that social mobility rates are lower than conventionally estimated, do not vary across societies, and are resistant to social policies.

Guglielmo Barone and Sauro Mocetti found this to be true of Florence, too:

We focus on the Italian city of Florence, for which data on taxpayers in 1427 – including surnames, occupations, earnings, and wealth – have been digitalised and made available online. We matched these data with those taken from the tax records relating to the city of Florence in 2011. Family dynasties are identified by surnames. Table 1 offers a first flavour of our results.

Florence Surnames, Occupations, Earnings, and Wealth

We report for the top five and bottom five earners among current taxpayers (at the surname level) the modal value of the occupation and the percentiles in the earnings and wealth distribution in the 15th century (the surnames are replaced by capital letters for confidentiality). The top earners among the current taxpayers were already at the top of the socioeconomic ladder six centuries ago – they were lawyers or members of the wool, silk, and shoemaker guilds; their earnings and wealth were always above the median. In contrast, the poorest surnames had less prestigious occupations, and their earnings and wealth were below the median in most cases.

(Hat tip to Arnold Kling.)

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