Why is Football More Popular than Ever?

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

Why is football more popular than ever?

In practice getting people to watch spot advertising means programming that has to be watched live and in practice that in turn means sports. Thus it is entirely predictable that advertisers will pay a premium for sports. It is also predictable that the cable industry will pay a premium for sports because must-watch ephemera is a good insurance policy against cord-cutting. Moreover, as a straight-forward Ricardian rent type issue, we would predict that this increased demand would accrue to the owners of factor inputs: athletes, team owners, and (in the short-run) the owners of cable channels with contracts to carry sports content. Indeed this has basically all happened.

Here’s something else that is entirely predictable from these premises: we should have declining viewership for sports. If you’re the marginal viewer who ex ante finds sports and scripted equally compelling, it seems like as sports get more expensive and you keep having to watch ads, whereas scripted gets dirt cheap, ad-free, and generally more convenient, the marginal viewer would give up sports, watch last season’s episodes of Breaking Bad on Netflix, be blissfully unaware of major advertising campaigns, and pocket the $50 difference between a basic cable package and a $10 Netflix subscription.

The weird thing is that this latter prediction didn’t happen. During exactly the same period over which sports got more expensive in absolute terms and there was declining direct cost and hassle for close substitutes, viewership for sports increased. From 2003 to 2013, sports viewership was up 27%. Or rather, baseball isn’t doing so great and basketball is holding its own, but holy moly, people love football. If you look at both the top events and top series on tv, it’s basically football, football, some other crap, and more football. I just can’t understand how when one thing gets more expensive and something else that’s similar gets a lot cheaper and lower hassle, that you see people flocking to the thing that is absolutely more hassle and relatively more money.

Comments

  1. Alrenous says:

    Price as supply and demand gets interesting when the demand is a function of the price; price becomes a function of itself. There’s a good chance the higher price is making it higher status.

  2. Stirner (@heresiologist) says:

    Most TV shows are oriented towards female viewers, not men. Men like dumb action shows where a team of men fight for justice each week, without obvious romantic entanglements. Stephen J Cannell had a whole career dedicated to cranking out these kinds of shows. The A-Team. Hunter, Wiseguy etc. Stuff like the Dukes of Hazzard, Hardcastle and McCormick, Knight Rider all fit that same model.

    Now? You get Law and Order, or the Good Wife, or stuff that is slanted towards a female demographic.

    Aside from the blue collar reality TV like Dirty Jobs, or Alaska or Atlantic fishing, logging, ice road truckers, or war stuff on “the Nazi channel” there really isn’t much out there to attract the interest of men. Except sports. That is why they are willing to absorb the costs of sports programming, because there simply not compelling options to switch to day after day, week after week.

    Now that wives all have iPads, it makes it easier for men to watch the game, while their spouses read on the Kindle app, pin on Pinterest, and engage in the digital voyeurism of Facebook. Tech is increasing the spouse acceptance factor of sports, cable is providing weak alternatives, and that is why we are where we are.

  3. Patty O. says:

    E-A-G-L-E-S
    EAGLES

  4. Alex J. says:

    It’s easier in football to watch all the games that matter, especially with premium packages and 3 afternoon games on cable. Not so much with the NBA. And with baseball, only the playoff games “matter”. I’ve had people tell me they never watch regular season baseball, but love the playoffs.

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