Qassam Rockets

Tuesday, September 20th, 2011

The rockets that the Palestinians fire into Israel from time to time are Qassam rockets, simple steel rockets developed by the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military arm of Hamas:

The aim of the Qassam rocket design appears to be ease and speed of manufacture, using common tools and components. To this end, the rockets are propelled by a solid mixture of sugar and potassium nitrate, a widely available fertilizer. The warhead is filled with smuggled or scavenged TNT and urea nitrate, another common fertilizer.

The rocket consists of a steel cylinder, containing a rectangular block of the propellant. A steel plate which forms and supports the nozzles is spot-welded to the base of the cylinder. The warhead consists of a simple metal shell surrounding the explosives, and is triggered by a fuze constructed using a simple firearm cartridge, a spring and a nail.

While early designs used a single nozzle which screwed into the base, recent rockets use a seven-nozzle design, with the nozzles drilled directly into the rocket baseplate. This change both increases the tolerance of the rocket to small nozzle design defects, and eases manufacture by allowing the use of a drill rather than a lathe during manufacture due to the smaller nozzle size. Unlike many other rockets, the nozzles are not canted, which means the rocket does not spin about its longitudinal axis during flight. While this results in a significant decrease in accuracy, it greatly simplifies rocket manufacture and the launch systems required.

The propellant of Palestinian rockets is generallly made from fertilizer, and the TNT warhead is smuggled through the Rafah border tunnels into the Gaza Strip. The cost for the raw materials of a large rocket is up to €500.

Retrieval Strength and Storage Strength

Tuesday, September 20th, 2011

Johnny Abacus recently reminded me of SuperMemo, which led me back to the work of Robert and Elizabeth Bjork on memory:

Both were steeped in the history of laboratory research on memory, and one of their goals was to get to the bottom of the spacing effect. They were also curious about the paradoxical tendency of older memories to become stronger with the passage of time, while more recent memories faded. Their explanation involved an elegant model with deeply counterintuitive implications.

Long-term memory, the Bjorks said, can be characterized by two components, which they named retrieval strength and storage strength. Retrieval strength measures how likely you are to recall something right now, how close it is to the surface of your mind. Storage strength measures how deeply the memory is rooted. Some memories may have high storage strength but low retrieval strength. Take an old address or phone number. Try to think of it; you may feel that it’s gone. But a single reminder could be enough to restore it for months or years. Conversely, some memories have high retrieval strength but low storage strength. Perhaps you’ve recently been told the names of the children of a new acquaintance. At this moment they may be easily accessible, but they are likely to be utterly forgotten in a few days, and a single repetition a month from now won’t do much to strengthen them at all.

The Bjorks were not the first psychologists to make this distinction, but they and a series of collaborators used a broad range of experimental data to show how these laws of memory wreak havoc on students and teachers. One of the problems is that the amount of storage strength you gain from practice is inversely correlated with the current retrieval strength. In other words, the harder you have to work to get the right answer, the more the answer is sealed in memory. Precisely those things that seem to signal we’re learning well — easy performance on drills, fluency during a lesson, even the subjective feeling that we know something — are misleading when it comes to predicting whether we will remember it in the future. “The most motivated and innovative teachers, to the extent they take current performance as their guide, are going to do the wrong things,” Robert Bjork says. “It’s almost sinister.”

The most popular learning systems sold today — for instance, foreign language software like Rosetta Stone — cheerfully defy every one of the psychologists’ warnings. With its constant feedback and easily accessible clues, Rosetta Stone brilliantly creates a sensation of progress. “Go to Amazon and look at the reviews,” says Greg Keim, Rosetta Stone’s CTO, when I ask him what evidence he has that people are really remembering what they learn. “That is as objective as you can get in terms of a user’s sense of achievement.” The sole problem here, from the psychologists’ perspective, is that the user’s sense of achievement is exactly what we should most distrust.

Structured Homeschooling, Unschooling, and Public Schooling

Tuesday, September 20th, 2011

Sandra Martin-Chang of Concordia University and her colleagues went to study homeschooling versus public schooling, but they immediately recognized that their homeschooling subjects fell into two very different categories. Some parents took a structured approach, with clear goals, structured lessons, and often purchased curricula, while others took an unstructured approach, which many called unschooling.

When researchers administered a 45-minute achievement test in the children’s homes, the structured homeschooling group outperformed the public schooling group by a wide margin:

In 5 of 7 test areas, (word identification, phonic decoding, science, social science, humanities) structured homeschoolers were at least one grade level ahead of public schoolers.

They were almost half a year ahead in math, and slightly, but not significantly, advanced in reading comprehension.
[...]
Homeschoolers retained their edge even after researchers made statistical adjustments for differences in family income and mother’s education level.

And if the recruitment process selected for homeschoolers with high skill levels, we can say the same about public school students. Both groups–structured homeschoolers and public schoolers–consisted of volunteers. Both tested well above grade level.

So the implications seem clear: Canadian kids receiving structured home schooling are testing very well, and it’s not merely a reflection of their parents’ affluence or educational levels.

How about the unstructured homeschoolers?

In every test area, unstructured homeschoolers got lower scores than the structured homeschoolers did.

In 5 of 7 areas, the differences were substantial, ranging from 1.32 grade levels for the math test to 4.2 grade levels for the word identification test.

Where the structured homeschoolers performed above grade level, the unstructured homeschoolers performed below it.
[...]
Unstructured homeschoolers also performed worse than the public school kids did, though not by enough margin to rule out chance.

Mike Hughes on Brian Enos’s Forums

Monday, September 19th, 2011

I mentioned that Top Shot season 3 competitor Cliff Walsh, the revolver expert, was discussing the show on Brian Enos’s Forums. Now Mike Hughes, inventor of the SIRT training pistol, has joined him:

Hi Friends. Just found this lead in this forum. Sorry for not participating sooner.

Next Show
This next week things heat up regarding the team dynamics, but more importantly, we get trained up by the great one, Jerry M. Even though this week is “trick shooting”, trick shooting taxes the fundamentals, usually isolating certain fundamentals.

As for myself (as shown in the previews!! no spoilers) I get taxed on natural point of aim which is premised on GRIP and STANCE…. blind fold shooting. Fun Stuff.

There will be some severe social dynamics (sic. drama) and in defense of Pilgrim, I finally get it, without human dynamics the show would fall flat. I noted some comments that the drama is induced or promoted, but honestly it is real. In some ways it is worse then they show on tv. Its like this, cock fighting is real, but contrived. The male roosters have their heads rubbed together, razor blades on their feet, female hens in the room….. the environment dictates behavior patterns. Well, I humbly say that we are no smarter than the roosters. Throw us away from our families, no phones, no laptop, no books?!, no external stimulus, no extensive training (more on that later)… just socializing day after day after day. It accelerates the “social dynamics”. Now add on that we throw each under under the bus (send to elimination) and things go volatile (or very ugly).

Cliff!
I see Cliff is active on here and I have to say I have the utmost respect for Cliff. He was a great addition to the house and I wish we were team mates.

Benefits of Top Shot to our Community
In closing, I love this show because it promotes firearms in a positive light. Its a competition, yes, not like USPSA, IDPA, Bulls Eye or what we are used to… we have to perform with limited training. In the big picture the viewers are grandpa and grandson, girlfriends, recreational shooters, even anti-gun folk watch this show and see firearms utilized in a positive manner, thats why I signed up. It touches a much larger audience. I truly believe Top Shot adds tremendous value to our shooting community (or at least thats what got me through the filming!! ). My objective was to positively represent the competitive shooting community.

Thanks all!

Mike Hughes

He continues:

Regarding competing in Elimination
Actually after 5 episodes and riding the pine on the revolver dice challenge, I am not kidding, I think I was kind of hitting a depression. Sounds wussy-ish but seriously, I felt clinically unproductive. After a week of doing very little ok, kind of like a vacation. After another week…not used to being that unproductive. So volunteering to elimination made the most sense. There is only one winner in the end anyway so lets figure it out early. I didn’t want to go home, but if Jarrett smoked me, so be it. It really could have gone either way.

Canon Insights
I don’t know if the behind the scenes details are interesting or not, but when I was practicing with the canon, that lanard took a lot of force to break the sear to send a round. So after 5 shots (of 7) I had some time so I was dry firing and when I yanked the lanyard once I noticed the whole canon moving like a 1/2 inch or so! Oh Crap…. You see part of the practice was sighting in the canon so I was chasing rounds that were flying everywhere possibly because I was not executing proper form on the lanyard (cord). The expert was a great guy, but he mentioned, ” I was a afraid of that” and instructed me to put more pretension on the lanyard before I wacked it with that wooden member. It was good advice, but honestly I was thinking, ‘ I could have really used that info 20 min ago!’. Anyhow, so I did some calculating for the last two rounds and figured my 9:00 adjustments may have been flawed and did the best corrections for the last two shots… I did NOT go into that challenge confident. Than goodneess I say my first round go 12:00 and demolish the hillside over that tower or I would have been totally screwed. I was aiming 6:00 in the competition. Fine line between success and failure. Jarrett is a great guy and great competitor. Tremendous athlete and shooter.

I recall the expert saying the shells were about $120 per. So 12 shots… Chalk up $1440 to Pilgrim Films!

Personally I think the technical details of the equipment, training, gear, what we saw during the competition with these crazy weapons are more entertaining then some of interview crap they put on the show. If you all want I can totally provide some of these details. TS3 was a very surreal experience. Lot of social dynamics down the pipe but some fantastic challenges and shooting ahead!

A bit more:

Remember every episode has 3 days of living of 10+ people that is crammed into 44 min. The editors do a good job of grabbing relevant content to paint a picture. I did not know Marreli had such propensity to let his mouth write checks his body couldn’t cash until I watched the show and seen his interviews.

One on one I got along with Jake and when we were having meetings and such, he did add value. I don’t have an ego where I have to lead, Jarrett and I didn’t care. I did have some producer interview questions thrown at me like, “Mike you started a company, NextLevelTraining.com, bla bla, how do you feel if Jake drives a meeting?” I generally answered, “…look if he is taking the initiative and adding value, I am supportive. It is not easy to drive a meeting and put some agenda together. Jake is a college coach so he has skill sets in that arena.” However, the key element is add value. I said it in interviews, straight to Jake and will say it here, Jake simply needs a coping mechanism to deal with criticism. Without that, things go to DEFCON 2.

By the way, the Pilgrim Films he mentions puts together a number of popular reality shows, including The Ultimate Fighter and Dirty Jobs.

The USAF Turns 64

Monday, September 19th, 2011

Yesterday was the “birthday” of the United States Air Force, which was founded in 1947 — after World War II, when it was still the US Army Air Force. This re-raises the question, why do we have an air force, anyway?

Professor Emeritus

Monday, September 19th, 2011

Back in the day, Rory Miller took an introductory Oceanography class that was taught by a professor emeritus who came out of retirement once a year just to teach this one class:

What follows is from memory, and I’m sure over the decades it has altered, but I remember his first lecture starting like this:

The sun rises in the East. It sets in the West. Warm air rises. Cold air falls. Your assignment for tomorrow is to use that information to draw a weather map of the world.

The class started to murmur in protest and several hands went up. Dr. Frohlander slammed his hand down, silencing the room:

The sun rises in the East and sets in the West. Warm air rises, cold air falls. THAT IS ALL YOU NEED TO DRAW A BASIC WEATHER MAP.

Some of you think you are here to be spoonfed facts. Anyone can do that. You are here to learn to think. Part of that is taking what you already know and learning what it means and how to use it.

Most of us got the basic maps right. Might not have been perfect on the latitude where the easterlies ended and the westerlies began, but the concept was close enough.

In my time at college, Dr. Frohlander was the only one who demanded that I think for myself. Some requested it or suggested it. (Some of those then punished the free thought if they disagreed with the conclusions.) But only Dr. Frohlander, an elderly, retired hard scientist demanded it.

I can never thank him enough.

(Hat tip to Johnny Abacus, who recently brought this up in a comment.)

A Good Measure of Social Control in Iran

Monday, September 19th, 2011

There is a good measure of social control in Iran, Edward Luttwak says, and that is the price of genuine imported Scotch whiskey in Tehran:

[B]ecause it’s a) forbidden, and b) has to be smuggled in for practical purposes from Dubai, and the only way it can come from Dubai is with the cooperation of the Revolutionary Guard. The price of whiskey has been declining for years, and you go to a party in north Tehran now and you get lots of whiskey. And it’s only slightly more expensive than in Northwest Washington.

Spoilers Don’t Spoil Stories

Monday, September 19th, 2011

Nicholas Christenfeld and Jonathan Leavitt of UCSD’s psychology department recently found that — spoiler alert!spoilers don’t spoil stories:

Christenfeld and Leavitt ran three experiments with a total of 12 short stories. Three types of stories were studied: ironic-twist, mystery and literary. Each story — classics by the likes of John Updike, Roald Dahl, Anton Chekhov, Agatha Christie and Raymond Carver — was presented as-is (without a spoiler), with a prefatory spoiler paragraph or with that same paragraph incorporated into the story as though it were a part of it. Each version of each story was read by at least 30 subjects. Data from subjects who had read the stories previously were excluded.

Subjects significantly preferred the spoiled versions of ironic-twist stories, where, for example, it was revealed before reading that a condemned man’s daring escape is all a fantasy before the noose snaps tight around his neck.

The same held true for mysteries. Knowing ahead of time that Poirot will discover that the apparent target of attempted murder is, in fact, the perpetrator not only didn’t hurt enjoyment of the story but actually improved it.

Subjects liked the literary, evocative stories least overall, but still preferred the spoiled versions over the unspoiled ones.

One possible explanation is that plot is overrated. Another is that it’s simply easier to read a story when you know the ending.

I suspect that there’s a sweet spot, where a story is just challenging enough for the reader. If the reader is a typical American college student, then giving away the ending makes the story easy enough to enjoy.

The other side of the coin is illustrated by screenwriter William Goldman’s observation that most TV shows become more entertaining if you miss the first half and have to figure out what’s going on. Otherwise they’re too straightforward and predictable.

Too Big for TV

Sunday, September 18th, 2011

George R.R. Martin discusses the challenges of writing screenplays on a budget based on a novel he originally wrote to be too big for television:

Which episode of Game of Thrones are you writing next season?

The Battle of the Blackwater, God help me. David and Dan must hate me.

That’s the one where you have to be most conscious of budgetary decisions.

It’s very tough because we don’t have the budget to do the battle in the book. We just don’t.

Well, they have to be able to show the ships and what happens to them, right?

I hope so. We’ll see. I’m writing it. I’m cutting certain things. We’ll see once I turn it in if we can do it. When you look HBO’s Rome

Loved Rome.

I loved it too, but what about the battles?

We see Caesar leave the tent to go to war, then he comes back and falls asleep.

Caesar leaves the tent. Pompey leaves the tent. Then we see Pompey’s banner in the mud. And Caesar comes back to the tent. The next episode, Pompey describes the battle to Pullo and Vorenus drawing it in the dirt with a stick to explain what happened. For the Battle of Actium, they open with Mark Anthony floating on a piece of wood — and Rome had a bigger budget than we do. I’ve been trying to tell the fans that. On some level they’re expecting the Battle of Pelennor Fields [from Peter Jackson's The Return of the King].

Fans don’t distinguish as much between mediums now.

They don’t. And television has set that up by being increasingly good. Back in the 1960s or ’70s, you could tell TV show from a movie in three frames just way it was shot and lit. But you can’t these days.

Bizarre Love Triangle

Sunday, September 18th, 2011

Speaking of bizarre love triangles, New Order‘s 1986 “hit” song of the same name never broke the Top 40 in either the US or UK — but it was ranked number 201 in Rolling Stone’s “The 500 Greatest Songs of All Time”.

Pirate Intelligence

Saturday, September 17th, 2011

It’s always an inside job:

The Somali pirate gangs have adapted to the growing fleet of warships and maritime patrol aircraft arrayed against them. One of the new tricks is getting into the databases of shipping companies and their Internet based communications. This information is bought from criminal operatives in London and the Persian Gulf, and provides precise information where the most lucrative and vulnerable ships will be.

Much of the money obtained from ransoms is used to buy goods and services from Persian Gulf merchants and other “specialists.” This includes assistance in negotiating with the shipping and insurance companies, as well as other services. This includes intelligence. The Persian Gulf is rife with corruption, and this makes it easier to buy needed information. That’s harder to do in London (the center of the maritime insurance industry, and where much information on where the most valuable ships is found). British police have detected some efforts to obtain information for pirates, and believe these efforts are becoming more intense.

As the pirates obtained more information on the best targets, they equipped their mother ships with GPS, radar and satellite phones. Thus the mother ships can be directed to interception courses with targets, so the speed boats towed, or carried, by the mother ships can attack the ships at night, and capture them. The pirate intelligence effort also seeks to find out what kind of security the target ships have. Ships with armed security teams on board are avoided, which is why more ships are carrying that kind of protection.

The pirates also seek information on shipping company security developments in general, in order to stay one jump ahead. This includes equipping pirate boarding parties with explosives and welding equipment to give them a chance of breaking into safe rooms that many ships equip themselves with. If the crew can get to the fortified safe room, after shutting down or disabling the engines and calling for help, the pirates usually leave the ship before a warship shows up. But if the pirates can break into the safe room, they have hostages that will keep the warships away.

Tiger Love-Triangle Murder

Saturday, September 17th, 2011

I don’t even know what to say about this tiger love-triangle murder:

A Malayan tiger from the San Diego Zoo on loan to the El Paso Zoo has killed her intended mate in what is being described possibly as a love-triangle involving three tigers.

Three-year-old Seri killed the 6-year-old male Wzui.

Seri may have been jealous of Wzui’s attention toward the 15-year-old female Melor, according to media accounts.

In June, a zoo news release noted friction between the three tigers: “The male tiger Wzui likes both females, but the two females don’t like each other.”

Seri reportedly grabbed Wzui’s neck in her jaws on Thursday and bit down. By the time keepers were on scene, Wzui was dead.

SpongeBob Hurts Your Brain

Friday, September 16th, 2011

Watching it may give adults a headache, but watching SpongeBob actually impairs children’s thinking — or, more specifically, their executive function:

Angeline Lillard and Jennifer Peterson, both of the University of Virginia’s department of psychology, wanted to see whether watching fast-paced television had an immediate influence on kids’ executive function — skills including attention, working memory, problem solving and delay of gratification that are associated with success in school.

Television’s negative effect on executive function over the long term has been established, the researchers wrote Monday in the journal Pediatrics, but less is known about its immediate effects.

To test what those might be, Lillard and Peterson randomly assigned 60 4-year-olds to three groups: one that watched nine minutes of a fast-paced, “very popular fantastical cartoon about an animated sponge that lives under the sea;” one that watched nine minutes of slower-paced programming from a PBS show “about a typical U.S. preschool-aged boy;” and a third group that was asked to draw for nine minutes with markers and crayons.

Immediately after their viewing and drawing tasks were complete, the kids were asked to perform four tests to assess executive function. Unfortunately for the denizens of Bikini Bottom, the kids who watched nine minutes of the frenetic high jinks of the “animated sponge” scored significantly worse than the other kids.

Israel’s success as a state has been made possible by Arab threats

Friday, September 16th, 2011

Israel’s success as a state has been made possible by Arab threats, Edward Luttwak says:

There are certain levels of violence that are so high that they’re damaging, and there are also levels that are so low they are damaging. There is an optimum level of the Arab threat. I would say for about nine days of the 1973 war, the level of violence was much too high. Even when Israelis were successful, the level of violence was destroying the tissue of the state. Most of the time, the violence is positive.

Lenin taught, “Power is mass multiplied by cohesion.” Arab violence generates Jewish cohesion. Cohesion turns mass into power. Israel has had very small mass, very high cohesion. If only the Palestinians understood that, they would have attacked the Jews with flowers.

Quality Homework

Friday, September 16th, 2011

While some argue that students are assigned too much homework, and others argue that they’re not assigned enough, it’s the quality of homework that matters most, not its quantity:

“Spaced repetition” is one example of the kind of evidence-based techniques that researchers have found have a positive impact on learning. Here’s how it works: instead of concentrating the study of information in single blocks, as many homework assignments currently do — reading about, say, the Civil War one evening and Reconstruction the next — learners encounter the same material in briefer sessions spread over a longer period of time. With this approach, students are re-exposed to information about the Civil War and Reconstruction throughout the semester.

It sounds unassuming, but spaced repetition produces impressive results. Eighth-grade history students who relied on a spaced approach to learning had nearly double the retention rate of students who studied the same material in a consolidated unit, reported researchers from the University of California-San Diego in 2007. The reason the method works so well goes back to the brain: when we first acquire memories, they are volatile, subject to change or likely to disappear. Exposing ourselves to information repeatedly over time fixes it more permanently in our minds, by strengthening the representation of the information that is embedded in our neural networks.

A second learning technique, known as “retrieval practice,” employs a familiar tool — the test — in a new way: not to assess what students know, but to reinforce it. We often conceive of memory as something like a storage tank and a test as a kind of dipstick that measures how much information we’ve put in there. But that’s not actually how the brain works. Every time we pull up a memory, we make it stronger and more lasting, so that testing doesn’t just measure, it changes learning. Simply reading over material to be learned, or even taking notes and making outlines, as many homework assignments require, doesn’t have this effect.

According to one experiment, language learners who employed the retrieval practice strategy to study vocabulary words remembered 80 percent of the words they studied, while learners who used conventional study methods remembered only about a third of them. Students who used retrieval practice to learn science retained about 50 percent more of the material than students who studied in traditional ways, reported researchers from Purdue University earlier this year. Students — and parents — may groan at the prospect of more tests, but the self-quizzing involved in retrieval practice need not provoke any anxiety. It’s simply an effective way to focus less on the input of knowledge (passively reading over textbooks and notes) and more on its output (calling up that same information from one’s own brain).

Another common misconception about how we learn holds that if information feels easy to absorb, we’ve learned it well. In fact, the opposite is true. When we work hard to understand information, we recall it better; the extra effort signals the brain that this knowledge is worth keeping. This phenomenon, known as cognitive disfluency, promotes learning so effectively that psychologists have devised all manner of “desirable difficulties” to introduce into the learning process: for example, sprinkling a passage with punctuation mistakes, deliberately leaving out letters, shrinking font size until it’s tiny or wiggling a document while it’s being copied so that words come out blurry.

Teachers are unlikely to start sending students home with smudged or error-filled worksheets, but there is another kind of desirable difficulty — called interleaving — that can readily be applied to homework. An interleaved assignment mixes up different kinds of situations or problems to be practiced, instead of grouping them by type. When students can’t tell in advance what kind of knowledge or problem-solving strategy will be required to answer a question, their brains have to work harder to come up with the solution, and the result is that students learn the material more thoroughly.

Researchers at California Polytechnic State University conducted a study of interleaving in sports that illustrates why the tactic is so effective. When baseball players practiced hitting, interleaving different kinds of pitches improved their performance on a later test in which the batters did not know the type of pitch in advance (as would be the case, of course, in a real game).

Interleaving produces the same sort of improvement in academic learning. A study published last year in the journal Applied Cognitive Psychology asked fourth-graders to work on solving four types of math problems and then to take a test evaluating how well they had learned. The scores of those whose practice problems were mixed up were more than double the scores of those students who had practiced one kind of problem at a time.