Unleash the Blue Wave!

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

Official statistics confirm that crime in England has increased roughly by a factor of 50 since Sir Arthur Conan Doyle wrote his Sherlock Holmes stories, in which the great detective made this complaint:

“There are no crimes and no criminals in these days,” he said, querulously. “What is the use of having brains in our profession? I know well that I have it in me to make my name famous. No man lives or has ever lived who has brought the same amount of study and of natural talent to the detection of crime which I have done. And what is the result? There is no crime to detect, or at, most some bungling villany with a motive so transparent that even a Scotland Yard official can see through it.”

Thinking about this led Mencius Moldbug from Mises to Carlyle:

So we see that an English government of the Victorian era — without DNA testing or closed-circuit TV — managed to largely abolish crime. We also see that the present-day government of England (and of other places governed in the same way) pretends to want to abolish crime — but to be unable to do so. Are we inclined to doubt this pretence? We are. Are we entitled to doubt it? We certainly are.

But if this pretence is indeed a pretence, if crime can indeed be abolished by enforcement, we accuse the present regime of something very serious. It becomes an accessory to this crime, which it could have abolished but chose not to. Furthermore, rather than admitting to this (somewhat) unprecedented abuse, it chose to deny the fact, and plead an obviously farcical incompetence. Certainly, when the SS removed police protection from the Jews of Riga, the SS made itself morally responsible for the subsequent pogrom by the Latvians of Riga. Even if all the Obersturmführers were on their lunch break, or whatever.

Therefore, the simplest way for a libertarian to support natural rights in his own society is to support a savage police crackdown on crime. For instance, by reimposing the standards and practices of the Victorian law-enforcement system, certainly both available and practical.

Inevitably some mistakes will be made; some innocent heads will be cracked. However, as a libertarian in America, exercising your libertarian rights, your goal is to minimize the number of natural-rights violations in America — whoever may be committing them, and in whatever uniform. Hence, you should generally support the police against criminals. The former violate natural rights only by accident and/or malfeasance, whereas the latter do so as a matter of regular procedure. In practice, it is not hard to know who is the cop, and who the criminal.

Unleash the blue wave!

Beaker’s Epic Burn-ination

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

Gloat over Beaker’s epic burn-ination:

Maturity Transformation

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

Using short-term borrowing — including zero-term borrowing, like ordinary bank deposits — to fund long-term illiquid assets is a strategy that can go catastrophically wrong.

Mencius Moldbug calls this problematic strategy maturity transformation, because short-term debt is transformed — imperfectly — into long-term debt. In case of panic, the disconnect becomes vivid.

A simple shift away from demand deposits could fix the problem:

If we replaced ordinary bank accounts with money-market mutual funds, then we would no longer have this issue of short-term borrowing going to fund long-term illiquid assets.

Instead, the bank’s customers would be equity-holders, and there would be no rush in bad times to run on the bank to get yours before everyone else gets theirs.

The worst-case scenario would be that the fund had to break the buck — unpleasant but not catastrophic.

I’ve said as much before:

Most of these “maturity transformation” issues disappear when you move away from an old-fashioned bank, which makes explicit promises of r% interest and withdrawals on demand, and move to a bond fund, which makes no promises about what yields it can deliver — and which doesn’t have to unwind its investments just because shareholders want to sell their shares.

Certainly bad debt can lead a money market fund to break the buck, and that can cause a liquidity crunch for investors who considered it cash-equivalent, but there’s no incentive for a run on the money market fund; shares just lose value, and no new shares are issued until the share price creeps back up to $1.00.

Further, any “maturity transformation” is pretty painless, as those who have cash now can buy shares, and those who want cash now can sell shares. There’s no angst about “fraud” from promising on-demand withdrawals while only holding fractional reserves.
[...]
With no notion of first-come, first-served, a fund’s in no danger of a run; its shares simply drop in value when its assets drop in value. It’s comparatively stable, since no one has an incentive to make matters worse for other investors in order to save their own skin.

A Portable Cash Register

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

The iPad, like the Kindle, is a portable cash register, Arnold Kling says:

With a Kindle, wherever you are, you are in a bookstore, with your credit card handy. There’s nothing wrong with that. I own a Kindle, and I’m happy with it. But it’s really not necessary to have to pay for one. I’ve shelled out much more for books on my Kindle than I did for the Kindle itself. The only reason not to give the Kindle away for free is that you would wind up putting it in the hands of consumers who are not all that interested in books.

Regardless of the price at which the iPad is sold, it is going to generate plenty of revenue. For Steve Jobs, getting people to pay for it is a bit like Tom Sawyer getting his friends to pay for the privilege of doing his whitewashing work for him.

Except that Apple and Amazon don’t make much profit off of media sales — yet.

Realism is dull

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

Realism is dull, Robert Kaplan notes, but it works:

Kissinger’s description of Metternich’s diplomatic achievement in controlling Napoleon adds another layer: “It had not produced any great conceptions; nor had it used the noble dreams of an impatient [revolutionary] generation. Its skill did not lie in creativity but in proportion, in its ability to combine elements it treated as given.”

Realism is thus about deftly playing the hand that has been dealt you. It is not exciting or inspiring. Journalistic careers are rarely built on embracing realism, though policymaking careers often are.

Give ‘em the old razzle-dazzle

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

During the Great War, navies learned that they couldn’t hide their ships through camouflage, because the background shifted so drastically with every change in the weather — but they could razzle-dazzle enemy range-finders with what painter Norman Wilkinson called dazzle painting:

The rangefinders were based on the co-incidence principle with an optical mechanism, operated by a human to compute the range. The operator adjusted the mechanism until two half-images of the target lined up in a complete picture. Dazzle was intended to make that hard because clashing patterns looked abnormal even when the two halves were aligned. This became more important when submarine periscopes included similar rangefinders. As an additional feature, the dazzle pattern usually included a false bow wave to make estimation of the ship’s speed difficult.






















Grant Meets Bismarck

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

Joseph Fouché shares a story from when Grant met Bismarck, harking back to when Sheridan met Bismarck:

One of the prince’s first questions was about General Sheridan.

“The general and I,” said the prince, ‘”were fellow campaigners in France, and we became great friends.”

General Grant said that he had had letters from Sheridan recently and he was quite well.

“Sheridan,” said the prince, “seemed to be a man of great ability.”

” Yes,” answered the General, “I regard Sheridan as not only one of the great soldiers of our war, but one of the great soldiers of the world — as a man who is fit for the highest commands. No better general ever lived than Sheridan.”

“I observed,” said the prince, ” that he had a wonderfully quick eye. On one occasion, I remember, the Emperor and his staff took up a position to observe a battle. The Emperor himself was never near enough to the front, was always impatient to be as near the fighting as possible. ‘ Well,’ said Sheridan to me, as we rode along, ‘ we shall never stay here, the enemy will in a short time make this so untenable that we shall all be leaving in a hurry. Then while the men are advancing they will see us retreating.’ Sure enough, in an hour or so the cannon shot began to plunge this way and that way, and we saw we must leave. It was difficult to move the Emperor, however; but we all had to go, and,” said the prince, with a hearty laugh, “we went rapidly. Sheridan had seen it from the beginning. I wish I had so quick an eye.”

When Grant met Bismarck, Wilhelm I had just been shot — and so conversation turned to the Global War on Anarchism, as Fouché wryly calls it:

The General answered that the influence which aimed at the Emperor’s life was an influence that would destroy all government, all order, all society, republics and empires.

“In America,” said General Grant, ” some of our people are, as I see from the papers, anxious about it. There is only one way to deal with it, and that is by the severest methods. I don’t see why a man who commits a crime like this, a crime that not only aims at an old man’s life, a ruler’s life, but shocks the world, should not meet with the severest punishment. In fact,” continued the General, “although at home there is a strong sentiment against the death penalty, and it is a sentiment which one naturally respects, I am not sure but it should be made more severe rather than less severe. Something is due to the offended as well as the offender, especially where the offended is slain.”

“That,” said the prince, ” is entirely my view. My convictions are so strong that I resigned the government of Alsace because I was required to commute sentences of capital nature. I could not do it in justice to my conscience. You see, this kind old gentleman, that Emperor whom these very people have tried to kill, is so gentle that he will never confirm a death sentence. Can you think of anything so strange that a sovereign whose tenderness of heart has practically abolished the death punishment should be the victim of assassination, or attempted assassination ? That is the fact. Well, I have never agreed with the Emperor on this point, and in Alsace, when I found that as chancellor I had to approve all commutations of the death sentence, I resigned. In Prussia that is the work of the Minister of Justice; in Alsace it devolved upon me. I felt, as the French say, that something was due to justice, and if crimes like these are rampant they must be severely punished.”

“All you can do with such people,” said the General quietly, “is to kill them.”

“Precisely so,” answered the prince.

Inside Afghanistan

Monday, February 8th, 2010

Ben Anderson’s look inside Afghanistan certainly demonstrates the “friction” of war — and makes neither the Afghan National Army nor its British mentors look particularly competent.

The first few minutes of part 2 explain the ANA incompetence.

Who Will Watch the Limited Watchmen?

Monday, February 8th, 2010

Who will watch the limited watchmen?

Another way to see the problem is to examine that shibboleth of libertarians — limited government. Now, the frustrated English teacher in me notes an interesting fact about this phrase: it is in the passive voice. Who shall limit the government? And how can we assure that they continue to do so? And if some other party does this limiting, who shall limit them? This is, of course, the old quis custodiet problem. To which Rothbard has no better solution than Juvenal.

Libertarians can be classified according to their wrong answers to this question. If you are a democratic libertarian, you believe that government should be limited by popular sovereignty. You also probably haven’t looked out the window in the last 200 years. If you are a judicial libertarian, you believe that government should be limited by judicial sovereignty — ie, by a judiciary committed to Constitutional principles and the Anglo-American common law. And you haven’t looked out the window in the last 75.

The essential problem with both democratic and judicial libertarianism is that, while we see both these phenomena succeed in history, we see them — once again — succeed only on the left. English and American history is a rich trove, as Rothbard can show you, of both popular resistance to state authority, and judicial resistance to state authority. However, this resistance succeeds only when in the process of undermining some higher order, royal or aristocratic. Once the People themselves are in the saddle, they no longer listen to complaints of this form.

In the democratic system today, to ask either the electorate or the judiciary for libertarian government is to ask an empowered body to relinquish powers it has. The People have powers X, Y and Z; they use these powers to vote government services A, B, and C; if you remove these services, you must remove the powers; if you remove the powers, you disempower.

Similarly, we live in the golden age of government by judge. Most significant executive decisions in the modern system of government land, one way in another, in the lap of a judge. This is the direct result of New Deal Legal-Realist jurisprudence. And you’re asking the judiciary, itself, out of mere goodness of heart, to relinquish this fat leg of ham? You and what army?

Whereas when the likes of Coke contended with the likes of Charles I, judicially-limited government was a no-brainer. Alas, judges are men. If we had angels on this planet, we would long ago have consigned these duties to them.

Thus, again: libertarianism works for the left and fails for the right. Both sovereign electorate and sovereign judiciary are perfectly happy to restrict the powers of others, ie, the King. Convincing them to restrict their own powers is quite a different problem. When democracy is competing against the remnants of the ancien regime, it is a force for limited government. Once it defeats and disempowers these remnants, it is a synonym for socialism.

War Plan Orange

Monday, February 8th, 2010

Long before Pearl Harbor, the US Army and Navy drew up War Plan Orange, in case of war with Japan. It consisted of three phases:

  1. Pull US Navy ships back to their home ports, and sacrifice outposts near Japan — the Philippines and Guam.
  2. With superior force, advance toward Japan, seizing Japanese-occupied islands to establish supply routes and overseas bases. The US, with its superior production power, should be able to reclaim the Philippines within two or three years.
  3. Choke Japanese trade and bombard the Japanese home islands without invading them.

Of course, War Plan Orange wasn’t the only war plan. There was also War Plan Red:

In Plan Red, the Atlantic Strategic War Plan, the strategists theorized that there would be a war with Great Britain. They did this because England was locked in a strategic alliance with Japan, the Anglo-Japanese Alliance of 1902, which was renewed and lasted until the Washington Conference of 1921-22. American planners thought that England’s imperial reach would bring it into conflict with the US.

Another contingency war plan they developed was the Red-Orange Plan, which hypothesized a two-theater war, seeking to win first in the Atlantic, against England, while fighting a holding battle in the Pacific, and then defeating Japan. When World War Two broke out, military and naval planners simply dusted off the old Red-Orange Plan and substituted Germany for England in the Atlantic Theater.

The broader strategy and the resources to carry it out, including defense construction and mobilization of reserves, was essentially the same. The main point to be learned here is that a theoretical planning construct does not make an enemy of a country. England made a strategic policy choice at the Washington Conference, deciding to cast its lot with the United States, and turned out to be a close ally by the late-1930s. But the Red-Orange Plan stayed on the US Joint Army-Navy Board’s agenda through 1939.

Early College Proves a Draw

Monday, February 8th, 2010

Early college proves a draw — for at-risk students:

Until recently, most programs like this were aimed at affluent, overachieving students — a way to keep them challenged and give them a head start on college work. But the goal is quite different at SandHoke, which enrolls only students whose parents do not have college degrees.

Here, and at North Carolina’s other 70 early-college schools, the goal is to keep at-risk students in school by eliminating the divide between high school and college.
[...]
Results have been impressive. Not all students at North Carolina’s early-college high schools earn two full years of college credit before they graduate — but few drop out.

“Last year, half our early-college high schools had zero dropouts, and that’s just unprecedented for North Carolina, where only 62 percent of our high school students graduate after four years,” said Tony Habit, president of the North Carolina New Schools Project, the nonprofit group spearheading the state’s high school reform.

In addition, North Carolina’s early-college high school students are getting slightly better grades in their college courses than their older classmates.
[...]
A recent report from Jobs for the Future, a nonprofit group that is coordinating the Gates initiative, found that in 2008, the early-college schools that had been open for more than four years had a high school graduation rate of 92 percent — and 4 out of 10 graduates had earned at least a year of college credit.

With a careful sequence of courses, including ninth-grade algebra, and attention to skills like note-taking, the early-college high schools accelerate students so that they arrive in college needing less of the remedial work that stalls so many low-income and first-generation students. “When we put kids on a college campus, we see them change totally, because they’re integrated with college students, and they don’t want to look immature,” said Michael Webb, associate vice president of Jobs for the Future.

Americans aren’t as idealistic as their media

Monday, February 8th, 2010

Robert Kaplan supported intervention in Bosnia, for strategic and moral reasons, as did the media, presumably for moral reasons — but most Americans did not:

Andrew Kohut, the former president of the Gallup Organization, who is now the director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, told me recently that the polls on Bosnia have, however, been firm and undeniable: at no point in the 1990s, despite all the emotional media coverage and revelations of war crimes, have more than half of the American people thought that U.S. intervention there was warranted. Interventions in Vietnam, Korea, Panama, Grenada, and Iraq were all more popular than our limited and belated one in Bosnia, in late 1995; only the intervention in Haiti, supported mainly by liberal Democrats, was less popular.

Bogota’s Bulletproof Tailor

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

Miguel Caballero is Bogota's bulletproof tailor — and business is good in Latin America.

Misesian classical liberalism is like Newtonian physics

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

The problem with taking Ludwig von Mises as a guru is not that he’s wrong, but that Misesian classical liberalism is like Newtonian physics:

It is basically correct within its operating envelope. Under unusual conditions it breaks down, and a more general model is needed. [...] Just as Newtonian rules only make sense at low speeds, Misesian rules only make sense in a secure order.

Tyranny is one form of chaos, and freedom is one form of order. To a Carlylean, like Mencius Moldbug, the fatal error of libertarianism is confusing anarchy and freedom:

Not only are they not the same thing; they are opposite poles of the political spectrum. Freedom — spontaneous order — is the ultimate form of order. Anarchy is the ultimate form of disorder.

To a Carlylean, anarchy and tyranny are fundamentally and essentially allied and indivisible. And again: the apparent affinity between anarchy and freedom is wholly illusory. In fact: to maximize freedom, eradicate anarchy. To achieve spontaneous order: first, achieve ordinary, down-to-earth, nonspontaneous order. Then, wait a while. Then, start to relax.

Here is the Carlylean roadmap for the Misesian goal. Spontaneous order, also known as freedom, is the highest level of a political pyramid of needs. These needs are: peace, security, law, and freedom. To advance order, always work for the next step — without skipping steps. In a state of war, advance toward peace; in a state of insecurity, advance toward security; in a state of security, advance toward law; in a state of law, advance toward freedom.

The Newtonian envelope of libertarianism is the last of these stages. Once the state of lawful government is reached, that state can generally improve itself by minimizing its interventions and applying a policy of laissez-faire — advancing from enforced to spontaneous order. With the caveat, of course, that this policy not jeopardize the more important achievements of peace, security, and law.

When a state finds itself outside this Newtonian window, however, Mises and Rothbard are of no assistance whatsoever in helping it get back in. Worse: Rothbardian libertarianism can be a positive hindrance to the Carlylean roadmap.

Realists almost always run foreign policy

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

Our foreign-policy idealism is mainly confined to the media and academia, Robert Kaplan suspects:

Realists almost always run foreign policy; idealists, I have found, attend academic conferences and write books and articles from the sidelines.