He’s Barack Obama

Monday, December 7th, 2009

I don’t think you have to be a reactionary Underdog fan to enjoy He’s Barack Obama, but it doesn’t hurt:

Science in Practice

Monday, December 7th, 2009

Eric Falkenstein laments that protocol is a prerequisite to substance:

A paper not only needs to have a new point, but it must do so in a way that patronizes the methodology they all have uniquely mastered. A scientist is generally not someone who simply knows a lot about ‘x’, but also knows how his status tribe discuss such ideas. Whether its post modern philosophy or economic dynamics, the key is the methodology, because that is what defines who is relevant, because someone with good ideas, but who does not use your method, potentially trashes your human capital (eg, you mean my understanding of the difference between Brouwers’ and Kakutani’s fixed point theorems was wasted?).

He shares an anecdote from David Hakes, an economics professor at Northern Iowa:

When we submitted the paper to risk, uncertainty, and insurance journals, the referees responded that the results were self-evident. After some degree of frustration, my coauthor suggested that the problem with the paper might be that we had made the argument too easy to follow, and thus referees and editors were not sufficiently impressed. He said that he could make the paper more impressive by generalizing the model. While making the same point as the original paper, the new paper would be more mathematically elegant, and it would become absolutely impenetrable to most readers. The resulting paper had fifteen equations, two propositions and proofs, dozens of additional mathematical expressions, and a mathematical appendix containing nineteen equations and even more mathematical expressions. I personally could no longer understand the paper and I could not possibly present the paper alone.

The paper was published in the first journal to which we submitted.

Are Those My Initials?

Monday, December 7th, 2009

Someone stole Steve Blank’s ideas on two occasions:

Once it almost mattered. This is about the time it didn’t.
[...]
The first time was at Rocket Science Games. I was positioning the company as the second coming of the video games businesses at the intersection of “Hollywood Meets Silicon Valley.” This was a great positioning, it helped us raise lots of money and get tons of press. I had a wonderful set of slides that illustrated (to me) this inevitable trend. At the end of the presentation was one “uber” chart I had labored over for months which laid out all the converging trends in the industry. I used it in all presentations and gave it at industry conferences.

Are those my initials on the slide?

Fast forward nine months. My co-founder, head of business development and I were in Japan raising money. We were sitting in the conference room of a large well-respected media firm when their CEO breezed in to give us an overview of who they were and how forward thinking their firm was. I thought highly of this firm and was in awe of their content and films so I was a bit blown away when the CEO got to the finale of their presentation. It was, as he explained, the sum of their strategy and strategic thinking for online media. And the slide was…

My slide.

Not a summary of my slide, or a Japanese copy of my slide, but my actual slide. I stood up from my seat, and walked around the boardroom table to get closer to the screen just to be sure. The CEO was beaming at my interest in the details of the slide. Examining the slide, I pointed to the bottom right and said to our translator, “Tell him my initials are still on the bottom.” The interpreter’s face went white, and after a lot of “I can’t tell him that,” he did.

We weren’t sure if we should feel insulted or complimented, but after a few deep breaths (and a lot of kicking under the table by my head of business development) my smart VP of business development used it as an opportunity to point out how honored we were that there was an obvious strategic alignment between the two companies. (I sat there smiling tightly.) Given the potential for a cross-cultural meltdown all parties behaved politely. The CEO turned out to be a very nice guy and rented a big bus to take his staff and all of us sightseeing, dinner and drinking around Tokyo. (I’m sure when he got back to the office he was handing out a personalized knife to the executive on his staff who had borrowed my slide.)

In the end, the CEO couldn’t get his board to give us the cash in exchange for the Japanese distribution rights and some equity. We ended up raising money from Sega.

I heard later that the slide disappeared from his presentation.

Wingsuits for Airbone Assault

Sunday, December 6th, 2009

SPELCO, the Special Parachute and Logistics Consortium, produces a variety of parachute systems, helmets, oxygen supplies and other gear and services, but their most eye-catching project is the Gryphon Next Generation Parachute System, a wingsuit for airborne assault:

This is described as a modular upgrade for parachute systems for use in “high-altitude, high-opening” jump missions, typically carried out by Special Forces. This 6-foot wing gives a glide ratio of 5:1, which means that a drop from 30,000 feet will allow you to glide about 30 miles. The makers estimate that this would take around 15 minutes, giving an average speed of about 60 miles an hour.

“All equipment is hidden in a lifting body optimized for stealth, the radar-signature is extremely low,” says the Gryphon data sheet (PDF). “Detection of incoming Gryphon soldiers by airborne or ground radar will be extremely difficult.”

Gryphon has a guidance system and heads-up display navigation. Best of all, the company are looking at an option for bolting on small engines similar to those used in Yves Rossy’s setup. These will increase the range to more than 60 miles, but will also make it possible to cover long distances from low altitude so that the entire mission can be more stealthy.

America’s Oldest Brewery

Sunday, December 6th, 2009

Years ago, when I was driving around Pennsylvania — and didn’t know the area — I found myself behind a truck emblazoned with the logo for something called Yuengling, which it trumpeted as America’s Oldest Brewery.

Frankly, the brand name looked Chinese to me — even if the Eagle logo didn’t — and I thought I should have heard of America’s oldest brewery. Nobody in the state seemed to know the story, so here it is:

  • The German brewer David G. Jüngling immigrated to the United States in 1823 from Aldingen in the Kingdom of Württemberg. He anglicized his surname from Jüngling to Yuengling and began the “Eagle Brewery” on Center Street in Pottsville in 1829.
  • Yuengling’s trademarked phrase “America’s Oldest Brewery” refers to the U.S. only, as the Canadian brand Molson, founded in 1786, is the oldest in North America.

It’s pronounced Ying-ling (/?j??l??/), by the way, and it’s now popular all along the east coast.

He will not come by sea

Saturday, December 5th, 2009

The amphibious invasions of World War II simply weren’t technically feasible before that war — which might explain this comment ascribed to the Earl of St. Vincent during the Napoleonic wars:

I do not say the Frenchman will not come. I only say he will not come by sea.

(From Joseph Caldwell Wylie’s Military Strategy, which Joseph Fouché recently recommended.)

Online-Dating Data

Friday, December 4th, 2009

The folks at OkCupid have plenty of online-dating data to mine, and they’ve found some interesting things about how men and women evaluate looks:


The curve is symmetric and surprisingly charitable: a woman is as likely to be considered extremely ugly as extremely beautiful, and the majority of women have been rated about “medium.” The chart looks normalized, even though it’s just the unfiltered opinions of our male users.


Site-wide, two-thirds of male messages go to the best-looking third of women. So basically, guys are fighting each other 2-for-1 for the absolute best-rated females, while plenty of potentially charming, even cute, girls go unwritten.

The medical term for this is male pattern madness.


As you can see from the gray line, women rate an incredible 80% of guys as worse-looking than medium. Very harsh. On the other hand, when it comes to actual messaging, women shift their expectations only just slightly ahead of the curve, which is a healthier pattern than guys’ pursuing the all-but-unattainable. But with the basic ratings so out-of-whack, the two curves together suggest some strange possibilities for the female thought process, the most salient of which is that the average-looking woman has convinced herself that the vast majority of males aren’t good enough for her, but she then goes right out and messages them anyway.

Hitler, the Good Clausewitzian

Friday, December 4th, 2009

Reading Ernest R. May’s Strange Victory and Adam Tooze’s The Wages of Destruction, Joseph Fouché decided that Hitler was a “good” Clausewitzian, contrary to some other interpretations he’d read:

In May’s account, Hitler refrained from day to day interference in the Polish campaign but as soon as Poland surrendered, Hitler began pressing for an immediate attack in the West against France. The high command of the Wehrmacht was vehemently opposed, rationally calculating that such an attack would be suicidal given France and Great Britain’s qualitative superiority in men and material. May portrays Hitler, a politician, as having a better grasp of the political frailties of Chamberlain and Daladier and their respective publics than his generals. Hitler used to read translations of the front pages of major foreign newspapers at breakfast. This gave him a valuable insight into what the Allied powers were currently thinking. So Hitler prodded and pushed the high command until they produced a plan and then prodded and pushed them until they produced a better plan. After the massive victory over France, Hitler naturally took credit and was even more actively interventionist during later stages of the war.

Tooze portrays the political and economic vision behind Hitler’s entire political career. Hitler saw Germany (and Europe) as being doomed to fall further and further behind in international competition with Britain, France, the Soviet Union, and especially America with their vast captive markets and vast resources. This meant Germany was doomed to strategic and therefore racial oblivion. The only way to reverse this trend, Hitler believed, was to carve a vast new empire out of Eastern Europe with all the precious resources of the Ukraine and the Caucasus that came with it. Since the same coalition that had defeated Germany in World War I, Britain, France, and America, dominated by International Jewry, would stand in the way of Germany’s Ukrainian Manifest Destiny, there was to be war. Hitler’s strategy, therefore was to make Germany economically self-sufficient to prevent the economic strangulation of blockade that ended World War I, to rearm, and to seek peace in the West while he dealt with the Little Entente and Russia in the east. When the British and French intervened, Hitler sought to knock them out of the war before the US fully mobilized its economy for war and made its power come to bear. When he failed to take Britain out with France, Hitler sought to hit their Bolshevik tool in the east. After the beating the Soviets received at the hands of tiny Finland, Hitler and most of his generals though Russia was a house of cards that was ripe for the plucking. When Germany failed to take Russia out of the war quickly, all that was left was playing for time in the hope that fissures would appear in the uneasy alliance between the Western democracies and their brutal Russian ally. In sum, Tooze demonstrates that from beginning to end that German policy was guided by passably coherent politics and strategy.

The problem with Germany’s military performance is not a lack of political involvement in the military decision-making process. The problem was that the policy Hitler pursued was wrong. Though he came remarkably close, Hitler couldn’t go to war with most of the industrialized world and hope to win. This fundamental flaw meant that, irrespective of the degree of political control he exercised over the Wehrmacht, he was doomed to failure barring a miracle and miracles were evidently in short supply in Nazi Germany. A wrong war is a continuation of wrong political intercourse with the addition of other means. Paying heed to Clausewitz in that one regard would have gained Hitler nothing. Only if Hitler had changed his policy would his chances improved. However, if Hitler offered a fundamentally different policy than he never would have gone to war in the first place, he probably never would have become Chancellor, and he might of never had a career in politics at all. The rot starts at the center and radiates outwards.

Violence Scale

Friday, December 4th, 2009

Marc “Animal” MacYoung proposes a violence scale for explaining conflicts to “normal” people:

Levels 1 to 2 are issues that can be resolved with a stern look.
3 to 4 go so far as a harsh word.
5 to 6 require verbal threat display (yelling screaming, etc).
7 is mild physical intervention ( a slap or ‘sitting on someone’).
8 is more force required.
9 is serious force.
10 is lethal force, immediately applied and without hesitation.

Very few people have any experience with anything beyond level 7:

This is important because basically past level 8, you are not playing for the same ‘goals’ as are common for 7 and below. Therefore you cannot judge level 8 and above by level 7 and below standards.

Below 7 the stakes are usually social status, pride and maintaining social order. Past 8 the stakes are much higher. In fact, level 10 boils down to what Martin Luther King once said:

The question is no longer between violence and non-violence; it is between non-violence and non-existence.

That non-existence is either yours or someone else’s. Now slap your hand on the table again, that’s how fast non-existence can — and does — happen at level 10.

An illustrative story:

For example, an old friend of my father’s was a patrol cop. They rolled on a domestic violence call and pulled up to see the guy on the porch with his wife on her knees with a shotgun to her head. As they were getting out of the car, he pulled the trigger. Looking up at them he raised the shotgun towards them…

At the inquest he was asked why he had shot the man six times. He replied “I ran out of bullets.”

He told me he’d just seen this guy shoot his wife in front of cops and then point that gun at those same cops… he didn’t figure the guy wanted to talk. That’s a level 10 situation.

There’s no speed limit

Friday, December 4th, 2009

Derek Sivers, founder of CD Baby, reminds us that, when it comes to learning, there’s no speed limit:

I met Kimo Williams when I was 17 — the summer after I graduated high school in Chicago, a few months before I was starting Berklee College of Music.

I called an ad in the paper by a recording studio, with a random question about music typesetting.

When the studio owner heard I was going to Berklee, he said, “I graduated from Berklee, and taught there for a few years, too. I’ll bet I can teach you two years’ of theory and arranging in only a few lessons. I suspect you can graduate in two years if you understand there’s no speed limit. Come by my studio at 9:00 tomorrow for your first lesson, if you’re interested. No charge.”

Graduate college in two years? Awesome! I liked his style. That was Kimo Williams.

Excited as hell, I showed up to his studio at 8:40 the next morning, though I waited outside until 8:59 before ringing his bell.

(Recently I heard him tell this same story from his perspective and said, “My doorbell rang at 8:59 one morning and I had no idea why. I run across kids all the time who say they want to be a great musician. I tell them I can help, and tell them to show up at my studio at 9am if they’re serious. Almost nobody ever does. It’s how I weed out the really serious ones from the kids who are just talk. But there he was, ready to go.”)

He opened the door. A tall black man in a Hawaiian shirt and big hat, a square scar on his nose, a laid-back demeanor, and a huge smile, sizing me up, nodding.

After a one-minute welcome, we were sitting at the piano, analyzing the sheet music for a jazz standard. He was quickly explaining the chords based on the diatonic scale. How the dissonance of the tri-tone in the 5-chord with the flat-7 is what makes it want to resolve to the 1. Within a minute, I was already being quizzed, “If the 5-chord with the flat-7 has that tritone, then so does another flat-7 chord. Which one?”

“Uh… the flat-2 chord?”

“Right! So that’s a substitute chord. Any flat-7 chord can always be substituted with the other flat-7 that shares the same tritone. So reharmonize all the chords you can in this chart. Go.”

The pace was intense, and I loved it. Finally, someone was challenging me — keeping me in over my head — encouraging and expecting me to pull myself up, quickly. I was learning so fast, it had the adrenaline of sports or a video game. A two-way game of catch, he tossed every fact back at me and made me prove I got it.

In our three-hour lesson that morning, he taught me a full semester of Berklee’s harmony courses. In our next four lessons, he taught me the next four semesters of harmony and arranging requirements.

When I got to college and took my entrance exams, I tested out of those six semesters of required classes.

Then, as he suggested, I bought the course materials for other required classes and taught myself, doing the homework on my own time, then went to the department head and took the final exam, getting full credit for the course.

Doing this in addition to my full course load, I graduated college in two and a half years — (got my bachelor’s degree when I was 20) — squeezing every bit of education out of that place that I could.

But the permanent effect was this:

Kimo’s high expectations set a new pace for me. He taught me “the standard pace is for chumps” — that the system is designed so anyone can keep up. If you’re more driven than “just anyone” — you can do so much more than anyone expects. And this applies to all of life — not just school.

Software Turns Webcam Into 3D Scanner

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

ProFORMA, or Probabilistic Feature-based On-line Rapid Model Acquisition, software turns an ordinary webcam into a 3D Scanner:

Normally, scanning in 3D requires purpose-made gear and time. ProFORMA lets you rotate any object in front of the camera and it scans it in real time, building a fully 3D texture mapped model as fast as you can turn an object. Even more impressive is what happens after the scan: The camera continues to track the objsct in space and matches it’s movement instantly with the on-screen model.


It works by generating a 3D point cloud from the image coming through the camera and then uses some clever math to both ignore the occasional occlusion of the model by a hand and to work out where the surfaces are.

Awesome By Proxy

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

Back in the day, I suppose I spent a decent amount of time playing computer games and playing role-playing games, but I never got into playing computer role-playing games — in which you become awesome by proxy:

To progress in an action game, the player has to improve, which is by no means guaranteed — but to progress in an RPG, the characters have to improve, which is inevitable.

This ties into an idea from child psychology, that those with a performance orientation see challenges as an opportunity to demonstrate their innate talent, while those with a mastery orientation see challenges as an opportunity to improve their skill:

RPGs are many things, but they are almost never hard. As I realized in childhood, the vast majority of RPG challenges can be defeated simply by putting in time. RPGs reward patience, not skill. Almost never is the player required to work hard — only the characters need improve. Failing to defeat Zeromus might mean your strategy is flawed, but it also might mean your level is too low. Guess which problem is easier to remedy?

Yet while the player is mostly marking time, the characters are accomplishing epic, heroic deeds, saving lives and defeating evil. Even when the player is not explicitly praised for this, the game makes its attitude clear. “You’re awesome!” it says, in essence. “You’re so strong and noble and heroic!” The player is showered with praise for non-achievements. It’s like porn for the performance oriented.

The characters make all the effort, but the player receives all the accolades. The game doesn’t have to say “Wow, you must be smart!” to train the player to value impressiveness that was not hard-won — even when the praise is for effort rather than skill, it is a lie. The player has expended only time.

When I learned about performance and mastery orientations, I realized with growing horror just what I’d been doing for most of my life. Going through school as a “gifted” kid, most of the praise I’d received had been of the “Wow, you must be smart!” variety. I had very little ability to follow through or persevere, and my grades tended to be either A’s or F’s, as I either understood things right away (such as, say, calculus) or gave up on them completely (trigonometry). I had a serious performance orientation. And I was reinforcing it every time I played an RPG.

The University of Minnesota Loves Diversity

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

The University of Minnesota loves diversity, Eric Falkenstein notes:

The University of Minnesota has a new booklet out articulating how much they love diversity. How much? They say “diversity” 230 times in 18 pages. As a local journalist noted about a different program at the U:
[A]spiring teachers there must repudiate the notion of “the American Dream” in order to obtain the recommendation for licensure required by the Minnesota Board of Teaching. Instead, teacher candidates must embrace — and be prepared to teach our state’s kids — the task force’s own vision of America as an oppressive hellhole: racist, sexist and homophobic.

It seems like the essence of a higher education is diversity, not of thought, but of human subgroups based on ethnicity, religion, race, and sex.

The Public Purpose of Banking

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

The difference between a bank and a non-bank is that a bank has a reserve account at the Fed:

Ultimately, the Govt creates all reserves, so why not just have the Govt make loans directly? Because we do not want the Government to make credit decisions, they are too likely to dole out money to politically connected constituencies, while starving worthwhile, but unconnected borrowers. You can see this today, as banks and unions get Billions, while shop keepers, dry cleaners, manufacturers, and restauranteurs shutter their businesses and go on the dole. An institution that makes loans it knows will not be paid back is not making loans at all, it is making gifts, and the operational bankruptcy of the FHA is a great example of this in action. Many adjectives come to mind: corrupt, wasteful, abominable, unfair, fraudulent, etc. This is the opposite of Responsible Governance. Barry, we really expected more.

So, to keep responsible lending, we put private capital infront of public capital and ask that private capital take the first loss on loans it makes which turn out to be bad. Ultimately, taxpayer money is there as backup, but it should not be directing investment. We call this institutional arrangement a “bank”.

This simple sensible construct is utterly lost on policy makers and the commentariat alike. For banking to do the job it is meant to do (ie. make loans that will be paid back), a bank should be required to keep all loans it makes on its books until maturity.

(Hat tip to Arnold Kling.)

The Origin of Big

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

How do big whales manage to put enough tiny bits of food in their bodies to get to such huge sizes?

For example, a fin whale will dive hundreds of feet down in search of food. Once it gets deep enough, it speeds up dramatically, and then abruptly slows down, almost stopping. Yet even as it slows, its tail is still moving up and down, generating tremendous thrust. Then, about half a minute later, it speeds up and slows down again. What’s going on?

According to the scientists, this pattern occurs when the whales lunge into a cloud of krill and drop open their jaws. Pleats under the lower jaw open up, engulfing huge amounts of water. The whale slows down because of the drag. It behaves, in other words, a lot like a parachute.
[...]
It’s a lot of water, the scientists have found: in one lunge, a fin whale can momentarily double its weight.

If a whale simply let the water come rushing in, there would be a tremendous collision — more than a whale could handle. Instead, the scientists argue, the whales actively cradle their titanic gulp. As the water rushes in, the whales contract muscles in their lower jaw. The water slows down and then reverses direction, so that it’s moving with the whale. (It just so happens that fin whales do have sheets of muscle and pressure-sensinging nerve endings in their lower jaw. Before now, nobody quite knew before what they were for.) Once the water is moving forward inside the whale it can then close its mouth and give an extra squeeze to filter the water through its baleen.

This bizarre strategy may be the secret to the huge size of some whales. A fin whale can get 20 pounds of krill in a single gulp, but it can gulp every 30 seconds. Because krill live in gigantic swarms, they can keep gulping and get enough food in four hours to fuel their bodies for an entire day.

Big fin whales are not just scaled-up versions of little fin whales:

Instead, as their bodies get bigger, their mouths get much bigger. Small fin whales can swallow up about 90% of their own body weight. Very big ones can gulp 160%. In other words, big fin whales need more and more energy to handle the bigger slugs of water they gulp. As their body increases in size, the energy their bodies demand rises faster than the extra energy they can get from their food.