Some E-Books Are More Equal Than Others

Friday, July 17th, 2009

Some e-books are more equal than others, David Pogue explains, in a story that had me checking the date to confirm that it’s not April 1:

This morning, hundreds of Amazon Kindle owners awoke to discover that books by a certain famous author had mysteriously disappeared from their e-book readers. These were books that they had bought and paid for — thought they owned.

But no, apparently the publisher changed its mind about offering an electronic edition, and apparently Amazon, whose business lives and dies by publisher happiness, caved. It electronically deleted all books by this author from people’s Kindles and credited their accounts for the price.

The “juicy, plump, dripping irony”:

The author who was the victim of this Big Brotherish plot was none other than George Orwell. And the books were “1984” and “Animal Farm.”

That makes it sound like a marketing gimmick.

Whitman on Carlyle

Friday, July 17th, 2009

When Thomas Carlyle — the reactionary who called economics the “dismal science” — passed away in 1881, Walt Whitman — America’s radical “poet of democracy” — declared that British thought without Carlyle would be like an army without artillery.

Odd. Mencius Moldbug takes this as a jumping off point for discussing why Carlyle matters — and why most of us have heard little or nothing about him:

People still read Whitman, but not Carlyle. There’s a reason for this. It’s not necessarily a good reason.

Because Whitman’s point of view — about as close as it comes to NPR avant la lettre — is so easy for the good citizen of 2009 to masticate, his introduction to Carlyle may be the best available. You see, the basic reason Carlyle is not in your high-school English reader, whereas Whitman is, is that Carlyle was what, here at [Mencius Moldbug's own blog, Unqualified Reservations], we call a reactionary. (Whereas Whitman is a progressive, or in 19th-century parlance a radical.)

Let us examine Whitman’s introduction to Carlyle:

All that is comprehended under the terms republicanism and democracy were distasteful to [Carlyle] from the first, and as he grew older they became hateful and contemptible. For an undoubtedly candid and penetrating faculty such as his, the bearings he persistently ignored were marvellous.

For instance, the promise, nay certainty of the democratic principle, to each and every State of the current world, not so much of helping it to perfect legislators and executives, but as the only effectual method for surely, however slowly, training people on a large scale toward voluntarily ruling and managing themselves (the ultimate aim of political and all other development) — to gradually reduce the fact of governing to its minimum, and to subject all its staffs and their doings to the telescopes and microscopes of committees and parties — and greatest of all, to afford (not stagnation and obedient content, which went well enough with the feudalism and ecclesiasticism of the antique and medieval world, but) a vast and sane and recurrent ebb and tide action for those floods of the great deep that have henceforth palpably burst forever their old bounds — seem never to have entered Carlyle’s thought.

It was splendid how he refused any compromise to the last. He was curiously antique. In that harsh, picturesque, most potent voice and figure, one seems to be carried back from the present of the British islands more than two thousand years, to the range between Jerusalem and Tarsus. His fullest best biographer justly says of him:

He was a teacher and a prophet, in the Jewish sense of the word. The prophecies of Isaiah and Jeremiah have become a part of the permanent spiritual inheritance of mankind, because events proved that they had interpreted correctly the signs of their own times, and their prophecies were fulfilled. Carlyle, like them, believed that he had a special message to deliver to the present age. Whether he was correct in that belief, and whether his message was a true message, remains to be seen. He has told us that our most cherished ideas of political liberty, with their kindred corollaries, are mere illusions, and that the progress which has seemed to go along with them is a progress towards anarchy and social dissolution. If he was wrong, he has misused his powers. The principles of his teachings are false. He has offered himself as a guide upon a road of which he had no knowledge; and his own desire for himself would be the speediest oblivion both of his person and his works. If, on the other hand, he has been right; if, like his great predecessors, he has read truly the tendencies of this modern age of ours, and his teaching is authenticated by facts, then Carlyle, too, will take his place among the inspired seers.

To which I add an amendment that under no circumstances, and no matter how completely time and events disprove his lurid vaticinations, should the English-speaking world forget this man, nor fail to hold in honor his unsurpassed conscience, his unique method, and his honest fame. Never were convictions more earnest and genuine. Never was there less of a flunkey or temporizer. Never had political progressivism a foe it could more heartily respect.

What was your reaction to Whitman’s argument against Carlyle?

Was that reaction, by any chance, “um?”, or “what?”, or “okay,” or “sure, I guess?”

For example, when Whitman castigates Carlyle for not realizing that democracy will “gradually reduce the fact of governing to its minimum,” or “perfect legislators and executives,” or (best of all) train its own voting citizens “on a large scale” to be every year wiser and more well-informed, did your soul leap up and shout: “very true, Mr. Whitman! And we of 2009 know just how true it is!”

Perhaps he lays on the sarcasm a bit thick, but it’s hard to deny that Whitman’s arguments are plainly wrong.

Ballistic Wampum

Friday, July 17th, 2009

When there was a run on guns and ammo 15 years ago, like today, Jeff Cooper advised his readers to keep up their personal supplies of .22 cartridges as ballistic wampum.

The Game Crafter

Friday, July 17th, 2009

A new company, The Game Crafter, is offering print-on-demand services for boardgame designers.

(It’s too bad their first three publications feature terrible art…)

A Theory of History, with an Application

Friday, July 17th, 2009

Paul Romer presents A Theory of History, with an Application to the Long Now Foundation:

Go ahead and skip the intro, but watch the whole video. Enjoy the iconic graphics. I’ll wait.

His first point is that the relationship between people and physical property like land is almost the exact opposite of the relationship between people and ideas.

Adding more people adds no more land, so we have less land per person — but adding more people does add more ideas, and ideas are easy to share, so we have more ideas per person.

His second point is that technical ideas aren’t the only ideas that matter for economic progress. Institutional ideas matter at least as much, and the two interact. Sometimes technical innovations lead to new rules, and sometimes rules lead to new technologies.

And this brings us to what Will Chamberlain calls bloodless instability — the ability to create new countries without resorting to conquest — because institutional innovation is crucial to economic growth. As Romer says, imagine a world with no new companies — and realize that we live in a world with no new countries. Where is the innovation going to come from?

Romer doesn’t explicitly mention Mancur Olson, but it wouldn’t be surprising to find out that he has read him. At the end of the talk, Romer cites Cardwell’s law, which states that ” every society, when left on its own, will be technologically creative for only short periods.” In The Rise And Decline Of Nations, Olson provides an excellent explanation for Cardwell’s law, which is that as time goes on, distributional coalitions form and squelch technological innovation and economic growth, by perverting specific rules so that they gain at the expense of the broader public.

(Hat tip to Arnold Kling.)

Lovelace – The Origin

Thursday, July 16th, 2009

I can’t believe I just found out about Sydney Padua’s Lovelace comic. It feels like it was written specifically for me — Ada Lovelace and Charles Babbage fight crime! And economic collapse!

Quick, to the Difference Engine!

LOL Memory

Thursday, July 16th, 2009

The Apollo navigation computer needed to be small and reliable, and it couldn’t use much power, so it was built with some of the first integrated circuits — and something called LOL memory:

In order to make sure that the software was robust it was “woven” into so-called “rope core memories”.

These used copper wires threaded through or around tiny magnetic cores to produce the ones and zeroes of binary code at the heart of the software.

Pass the copper wire through the core and the computer read it as a one. Pass it around and it was read as a zero.

“Once you get it wired it’s not going to change without breaking those wires,” said Mr Hall.

The rope core memories would become know as “LOL memory” after the “little old ladies” who knitted together the software at a factory just outside Boston.

These ladies would sit in pairs with a memory unit between them, threading metres and metres of slender copper wires through and around the cores.

“It’s an extremely time-consuming process and it meant that the programs had to be finished and fully tested months in advance,” said Mr Eyles.

“But it is extremely robust – that information probably still exists despite being left on the Moon.”

To ensure reliability and the highest possible standards from the ladies, Nasa also chose to go on a PR mission to the factories.

“We used to go to the cafeteria and the astronauts would come in,” said Mary Lou Rogers, one of the ladies who worked on the Apollo line.

“They’d explain the Moon shot and thank us for what a good job we were doing.

“Everybody got all excited when they came in — we were a bunch of married women with children.”

However, Nasa did not just leave quality control to good will and chance, said Mrs Rogers, who also worked on Intercontinental Ballistic Missile programmes.

“[Each component] had to be looked at by three of four people before it was stamped off. We had a group of inspectors come in for the Federal Government to check our work all the time.”
“It was bad when we worked on Poseidon and Trident. But nothing as bad as when we were on Apollo.”

The Dark View

Thursday, July 16th, 2009

Robert Solow and Douglass North present what Arnold Kling calls the dark view, that free markets are not natural. As North puts it:

The economic interests are the elites that produce economic activity. But they tend to support political groups that, in turn, will protect them from too much competition. The interplay is the elites in the political world protecting the economic elites from too much competition and giving them monopolies, while on the other hand the economic elites provide the funds that support the political elites. And the interplay is all over Latin America. It’s a disease, but it’s a disease that is a natural thing and it’s very hard to get rid of.

Plato? Aristotle? Socrates? Morons.

Thursday, July 16th, 2009

Mencius Moldbug urges a return to the classical European tradition of political thought:

This is a deeper, faster and colder river than the American democratic tradition, which largely rejects all pre-American political thought — even the Greeks and Romans, whose opinion of democracy was much the same as Carlyle’s. “Plato? Aristotle? Socrates? Morons.” That would be you, O worshiper at the altar of the People.

Libertarians, those who believe that minimal government is good government, should consider metrics for the weight of the State — and they might be surprised by what they find:

One obvious such metric is the ratio of governors to governed, ie, civil servants to serfs.

And who is the grand champion in this category? I have not run the numbers — but one strong candidate must be the British Raj, in which a century ago 250 million Indians were governed by 1000 Englishmen. Without computers, etc. If we could apply the same ratio to the New California, which admittedly is a big if, it would be the size of a large startup. Minimal enough for ya?

A Polite Society

Thursday, July 16th, 2009

Years ago, Jeff Cooper cited paleoconservative Samuel Francis on why modern Americans are so rude:

The society of late twentieth century America is perhaps the first in human history where most grown men do not routinely bear arms on their persons and boys are not regularly raised from childhood to learn skill in the use of some kind of weapon, either for community or personal defense — club or spear, broadsword or long bow, rifle or Bowie knife.

It also happens to be one of the rudest and crudest societies in history, having jubilantly swept most of the etiquette of speech, table, dress, hospitality, fairness, deference to authority and the relations of male and female and child and elder under the fraying and filthy carpet of politically convenient illusions. With little fear of physical reprisal Americans can be as loud, gross, disrespectful, pushy, and negligent as they please.

If more people carried rapiers at their belts, or revolvers on their hips, it is a fair bet you would be able to go to a movie and enjoy the dialogue from the screen without having to endure the small talk, family gossip and assorted bodily noises that many theater audiences these days regularly emit. Today, discourtesy is commonplace precisely because there is no price to pay for it.

Or, as Heinlein succinctly put it:

An armed society is a polite society.

I suppose there are some trade-offs to consider.

Disruption Tolerant Networking

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

What do you do if you need a web that’s more than world-wide? You go with disruption tolerant networking:

Adrian Hooke, a veteran of the Apollo 11 mission launch team, manages the new space DTN project.

“Typically spacecraft go off and do their thing, gather up data, and then on some schedule they connect to the ground and [we] pull down the results of what it has been doing and send up instructions for the next time period,” Hooke said.

Such manual operations are inefficient and expensive. But simply extending Earth’s Internet into space won’t work.

The Web uses Transmission-Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP), a type of communication language in which hosts and computers must be constantly connected.

This rarely happens in space, where intermittent connections are the norm because of the vast distances involved and the tendency of orbiting moons, rotating planets, and drifting satellites to temporarily disrupt wireless lines of communication.

Typical space delays, even those caused by solar storms, are handled in stride by DTN, Hooke said.

Each node in the network—whether it’s the International Space Station or a small orbiting robot—stores all the data it receives until a clear opportunity arises to pass its “bundle” along to the others in the network. DTN nodes do not discard data when a destination path can’t be identified.

(Hat tip to Nyrath.)

Replacing education with psychometrics

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

Bruce Charlton recommends replacing education with psychometrics:

I myself am a prime example of the way in which ignorance of IQ leads to a distorted understanding of education (and many other matters). I have been writing on the subject of education — especially higher education, science and medical education — for about 20 years, but now believe that many of my earlier ideas were wrong for the simple reason that I did not know about IQ. Since discovering the basic facts about IQ, several of my convictions have undergone a U-turn. Just how radically my ideas were changed has been brought home by two recent books: Real Education by Charles Murray and Spent by Geoffrey Miller.

Since IQ and personality are substantially hereditary and rankings (although not absolute levels) are highly stable throughout a persons adult life, this implies that differential educational attainment within a society is mostly determined by heredity and therefore not by differences in educational experience. This implies that education is about selection more than enhancement, and educational qualifications mainly serve to ‘signal’ or quantify a person’s hereditary attributes. So education mostly functions as an extremely slow, inefficient and imprecise form of psychometric testing. It would therefore be easy to construct a modern educational system that was both more efficient and more effective than the current one.

I now advocate a substantial reduction in the average amount of formal education and the proportion of the population attending higher education institutions. At the age of about sixteen each person could leave school with a set of knowledge-based examination results demonstrating their level of competence in a core knowledge curriculum; and with usefully precise and valid psychometric measurements of their general intelligence and personality (especially their age ranked degree of Conscientiousness).

However, such change would result in a massive down-sizing of the educational system and this is a key underlying reason why IQ has become a taboo subject. Miller suggests that academics at the most expensive, elite, intelligence-screening universities tend to be sceptical of psychometric testing; precisely because they do not want to be undercut by cheaper, faster, more-reliable IQ and personality evaluations.

Arnold Kling isn’t hopeful:

I think that the probability that Charlton’s Caplan-esque views become widely accepted is about one in ten thousand. I would say there is a slightly higher chance, about five in ten thousand, that someday he will be imprisoned for his views.

The virtues and vices of libertarianism

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

Mencius Moldbug enumerates the virtues and vices of libertarianism as a candidate for a replacement government after a “reboot”:

First: Libertarianism correctly identifies one pathological symptom of the 20th-century state: sovereign bloat. The government is way, way too big. It employs too many people, it intrudes into far too many things, it makes far too many rules. This cannot be healthy. It isn’t.

Second: Libertarianism is no mere geekfest, because it can claim genuine experience in power — broadly speaking, the middle to late 19th century in both Britain and the United States. Cobden and Bright were not victorious in all their causes, but certainly in many. Mill and Spencer were not Mao and Marx, but they were remarkably influential. For example, I know for a fact that San Francisco once had eleven independent, private cable car companies, so I know that private transportation systems can work in the real world.

Third: Libertarianism appeals to the most basic human political belief, the desire for personal independence. It is impossible to give words like freedom or liberty negative connotations. Thus, libertarianism should be popular as well as desirable.

Having acknowledged these virtues, let us see the vices.

First, libertarians often argue that libertarianism is a moral necessity. Through various Jesuitical tricks of the tongue, your Rothbardian is always deriving ought from is. The merits of Hume aside, I have seldom found this approach an effective means of proselytizing. You’ll note that socialists, too, believe that socialism is a moral necessity. There are a lot more socialists than libertarians.

Second, if we disregard the possibility that it is divinely ordained, libertarianism fails as a reboot vehicle because it is an outcome rather than a design. The assertion that the New California will be libertarian is like the statement that the bridge you are building will stay up. Will it? How do you plan to make it do so? The United States was supposed to be libertarian, too, and we see what happened to that.

Other than an unhealthy fascination with overlapping jurisdictions, an even more unhealthy fascination with actual anarchy, and a healthy distrust of democracy, libertarianism contains no ideas at all on the subject of constitutional design. It cannot be interpreted as an instruction sequence for a reboot.

Third, even as an outcome, libertarianism reduces to tautology. Suppose you are a libertarian. You must, therefore, believe that libertarianism is (generally) prudent government. That is, a prudent government is likely to be minimal and confine itself mostly to achieving security. I am happy to agree with this as well.

But in this case, why not just insist on the whole shebang — prudent government? If we can write some magic incantation that restrains the New California from any un-libertarian act, why not write the incantation slightly more broadly, and restrain it from any imprudent act? Is there some reason that one incantation would work, and another fail?

Fourth, you’ll note that libertarianism is a sort of formula for government. To the orthodox believer, whatever the question, free trade is always the answer. I will buy “generally,” but I will not buy “always.” Prudence does conflict with libertarianism, and prudence must win.

No job worthy of a human can be removed from human hands. And the task of governing is perhaps the most human of all, which is why Shakespeare wrote all those plays about kings. Show me someone with a formula which can replace a human, and I will show you a quack. To get any job done right, find people who are good at it, and give them both authority and responsibility. Government is not exempt from this basic observation.

But divided-authority regimes often find themselves adopting these quack formulas, because such organization is constantly in search of agreement between contending factions. It is always easier for A and B to agree on a decision formula, than to award the decision to A or B. Indeed, any division of authority involves some such formula — for instance, to implement Montesquieu’s good old separation of powers, we must define “legislative,” “judicial” and “executive.”

Fifth — and worst of all, though most subtly — libertarianism will always fail as a revolt against progressivism, because libertarianism contains, at its core, a shard of pure Left. This gives it power, or the semblance thereof. But it is a mistake, like using the Ring against Sauron, and just as fatal.

Cobden and Bright were Radicals, ie, leftists. The party of the left, on the bottom, or on the top is always the party of chaos. Out of power, it vandalizes; in power, it tyrannizes. All leftist ideologies generate power — the believer implicitly joins a coalition, whose goal is to wield collective force. This is basic chimpanzee politics.

Since the simplest form of power is the power to destroy, leftist forces tend to come to power in a a flurry of institutional destruction. But since some things do need destroying, it is easy to identify positive side effects of the process. This must not be mistaken for evidence that leftism is a good idea.

Manchester liberalism, as a branch of the English Radical tradition, was an ideology of the left. It generated its power through an economic attack on the old landed aristocracy of England, including any and all medieval economic and political survivals. Once that aristocracy, which had guided the sceptered isle to its position as the queen of nations, was fully vandalized and liberal intellectuals were firmly in the saddle, libertarianism no longer helped the Radicals achieve power, but prevented them from gaining more. It was thus a liability, not an asset, and thus it disappeared. So did Britain’s greatness, of course.

Remember the first rule

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

Jeff Cooper, founder of the Gunsight Training Center, wrote prolifically about guns and self-defense — and the harsh reality of gunfighting:

Remember the first rule of gunfighting: have a gun.

But he also realized that gun nuts enjoyed reading his advice much more than following it:

If you are reading this, and you are not within arm’s reach of a weapon, you have not learned the lessons of Gunsite.

In one of his commentaries, he lamented:

I can sympathize with Simon Bolivar, when on his death bed, he sighed, “I have plowed the sea.”

Solar hot water heaters

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

Jeffrey Yago gives a brief history of solar hot water heaters:

With continued shortages of wood for home heating, the Greeks built the North Hill section of Olympus in the 5th century B.C. This planned community had all streets running east and west, with each parallel street at a higher elevation as you went north. In this way every home had a large south-facing window which allowed the sun to heat up the uninsulated heavy masonry walls during the day, while heavy drapes were drawn at night to seal in this solar heat. If a neighbor later built an addition that blocked the warming sun, the offended homeowner could sue in court to remove the shading construction.

Around the 1st century A.D., the Romans improved on this design by splitting mica into thin sheets or using hand-formed sheet glass to cover open skylights and south-facing windows. This made it more efficient to warm their many public baths using the sun’s rays, while holding in the heat. By the 1800s many upscale London homes included solar greenhouses or conservatories, and glass-covered insulated wood boxes were being used to heat water with the sun.

By the early 1900s, many upscale homes in the United States were able to buy solar water heaters for the huge price of $25 including installation. These insulated glass-covered boxes contained multiple metal water tanks which were installed on a south-facing roof. Valves were located next to the bathtub so the homeowner could route the cold water supply up through the solar-heated tanks then back into the bathtub. Through most of the 1930s many homes in California and Florida had commercially-made solar water heaters to heat hot water where utility natural gas was not available.

These early solar water heaters were very simple to operate and did not require pumps or controls. A solar panel was installed at the lowest part of a south-facing roof just above the roof eave. An insulated storage tank was mounted as high up in the attic as possible. Since heat rises, the heated water in the lower solar panel pushed its way up to the top of the upper tank, and the colder water at the bottom returned to the solar panel to be reheated as a result of this thermo-siphon effect.

When an attic was too small to house the tank, or the roof slope was too shallow to provide enough tank elevation, the installer would cut a hole in the roof peak and the hot-water tank would be mounted upright sticking up out of the roof. A fake chimney was then built around the tank to provide insulation and camouflage. Once low-cost oil and gas was available and piped throughout the towns and cities, solar hot water heaters were gradually replaced with cheap gas-fired hot water heaters and the solar industry in the United States disappeared until a revival in the late 1970s after an energy crisis brought on by two oil embargos.