The Improbable Rise and Fall of E-Gold

Tuesday, June 9th, 2009

Ten years ago, Douglas Jackson was an affluent physician, an oncologist. Then he decided to start E-Gold. After he cooperated with authorities and helped them catch money-launderers, those same authorities came for him:

After a year-and-a-half of court wrangling and negotiations, Jackson pleaded guilty last year to conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting service and conspiracy to commit money laundering. In November he was sentenced to 36 months of supervised released — including six months of house arrest and electronic monitoring, and 300 hours of community service. In addition to forfeiting about $1.2 million to the government, his two companies — Gold and Silver Reserve and E-Gold Limited — were fined $300,000, to be paid in $10,000 monthly installments beginning last month.

The plea agreement is conditional on Jackson revamping his business to comply with regulations governing money-transmitting services — a goal that, Jackson concedes, faces many hurdles. To begin the process of compliance, he suspended the creation of new accounts. Existing customers are now required to submit a government-issued photo ID and proof of residence to authenticate their name, address and other details, and are limited to $1,000 to $3,000 a month in transactions until they pass muster. Customers in high-risk countries — such as Nigeria, Russia and Ukraine — are suspended from making any transactions at all for now. Their money is locked indefinitely in E-Gold’s servers.
[...]
Although E-Gold was occasionally profitable, Jackson only drew a salary, like his employees. The two upscale homes he once owned with his wife are long gone. Now his wife and 12-year-old son occupy half a duplex in Pennsylvania near her family, and Jackson lives in a one-bedroom apartment in Melbourne with his 17-year-old son, while the latter finishes high school, and Jackson and his staff attempt to rebuild the business.

Planning for the worst

Tuesday, June 9th, 2009

Americans are planning for the worst by buying guns:

American gun sales surged after Mr Obama was elected president. He had a voting record of raising the tax on guns and ammunition by 500%, and, on top of that, he hinted during the campaign that he might restrict gun sales and create a national registry of gun-owners. The election was seven months ago, and the buying spree has not flagged since. Data released by the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System, which serve as a gauge of actual sales, reported 1,255,980 checks in April 2009: a sixth monthly increase, and a 30.3% increase from the 940,961 reported last April.

Concealed-weapon permits are up, too. Ohio, Kentucky, North Carolina and Montana all report a rise in licences issued; Ohio saw a 139% increase in the first quarter of this year over last. Meanwhile, classes on gun rules in Phoenix are booked solid for months, ammunition is sold out, and gunmakers and dealers alike are scrambling to keep up with demand.

(Hat tip à mon père.)

Drama

Monday, June 8th, 2009

This xkcd — inadvertently? — makes the case for Burkean conservatism.

U.C. Berkeley Device Could Store Data for Billion Years

Monday, June 8th, 2009

A new data storage technology being developed at U.C. Berkeley could store data for a billion years — which is quite a bit longer than any hard drive I’ve owned has lasted:

The device made by the U.C. Berkeley team — which is led by physics professor Alex Zettl — has an iron nanoparticle enclosed in the middle of a hollow carbon nanotube, according to Gannett.

For scale, a nanoparticle is 1/50,000 the width of a human hair, which is approximately 100,000 nanometers in diameter.

The nanoparticle has a lifetime of over a billion years, unlike existing devices with a life expectancy of only 10 to 30 years, according to a paper by the researchers recently published in several scientific journals.

To store digital bits, the fundamental unit of memory, a small voltage is applied across the nanotube, causing the iron nanoparticle to move back and forth inside the tube.

When information is stored on the nanoparticle, its location within the tube changes. As this changes, so does the resistance of its containing tube, which can be used by scientists to play back the stored information using computer programming.

“There are a few nice things about this system,” Gannett said. “First of all, the voltage required is only around a couple volts, which is very easy to generate and compatible with existing technologies. Second, the iron will stay where we ‘put’ it — that is, it doesn’t move when the voltage is turned off.”

The nanoparticle can move approximately three nanometers at a time over a length of a few hundred nanometers, he said.

According to Gannett, another method used to retrieve information is using an electron microscope, but the resistance method is more practical.

“This is what makes the system potentially very useful,” he said. “Measuring resistance is much easier than measuring the actual position and requires only very simple electronics, not an electron microscope.”

Because of this aspect, future integration with other electronic devices like MP3 players could be possible, according to Gannett.

“I think this project is a stepping stone, showing that there are ways of storing digital data that are very different from what is currently used and that may hold great advantages in data lifetime and density,” he said.

I love the technologically naive writing: the resistance can be used by scientists to play back the stored information using computer programming.

Day of Empire

Monday, June 8th, 2009

Amy Chua’s Day of Empire explains how hyperpowers rise to global dominance — and why they fall:

For all their enormous differences, every single world hyperpower in history — ever society that could even arguably be described as having achieved global hegemony — was, at least by the standards of its time, extraordinarily pluralistic and tolerant during its rise to pre-eminence. Indeed, in every case tolerance was indispensible to the achievement of hegemony. Just as strikingly, the decline of empire has repeatedly coincided with intolerance, xenophobia, and calls for racial, religious, or ethnic “purity.” But here’s the catch: It was also tolerance that sowed the seeds of decline. In virtually every case, tolerance eventually hit a tipping point, triggering conflict, hatred, and violence.

James McCormick has written an extensive review — read the whole thing — which makes a point that immediately jumped out at me too: the book seems like it was written backwards, starting with the policy-prescription of open immigration and tolerance for religious and ethnic minorities.

Nonetheless, it sounds like a fascinating book.

The Start-up Guru

Monday, June 8th, 2009

Max Chafkin, Inc.‘s senior writer, has written a piece on Paul Graham, The Start-up Guru. I enjoyed Graham’s take on getting acquired by Yahoo, back in the day:

“Running a start-up is like being punched in the face repeatedly,” he says. “But working for a large company is like being waterboarded.”

If you’re not familiar with Paul Graham and Y Combinator, here’s the story:

After leaving Yahoo, Graham spent most of his time writing essays about technology and business and developing a new programming language. His best work was collected in a book, published in 2004, called Hackers and Painters: Big Ideas From the Computer Age. “Everything around us is turning into computers,” he writes in the preface. “So if you want to understand where we are, and where we’re going, it will help if you understand what’s going on inside the heads of hackers.”

In March 2005, Graham was invited by the Harvard Computer Society, an undergraduate group, to talk about starting a company. “I told them to raise money from angel investors, preferably people who have started start-ups themselves,” he says. After delivering that line, he glanced at the audience and noticed that everyone was looking at him expectantly. Fearing a deluge of bad business plans from bright-eyed Harvard students, he quickly added, “Not me.” Later that day, while having coffee with some of the students, he remembered that if he hadn’t been able to find his own angel investors, Viaweb never would have gotten off the ground. He decided it might be worth seeing what these kids could come up with.

Y Combinator began as an experiment in angel investing, conducted during the summer of 2005. Graham recruited Morris, Livingston, and a Viaweb employee named Trevor Blackwell to join him. The pitch was straightforward: $6,000 for a company with one founder, $12,000 if the company had two founders, and $18,000 if the company had three. In exchange, Y Combinator would get roughly 6 percent in common stock. (Exact ownership stakes vary. The most Y Combinator has taken is 10 percent; the least is 1.4 percent.)

Graham promoted the program with an essay that he posted on his website and that quickly found its way to many college students’ e-mail inboxes. “We give you enough money to live on for a summer, as with a regular summer job,” he wrote. “But instead of working for an existing company, you’ll be working for your own; instead of showing up at some office building at 9 a.m., you can work when and where you like; and instead of salary, the money you get will be seed funding.”

Graham received 227 applications, mostly from computer science students, and he invested in eight start-ups. Half went on to raise additional funding, and two turned down acquisition offers. Graham knew that most of the companies would probably die, but he also believed he was onto something. For example, Loopt, which develops software for cell phones that allows users to see where their friends are, managed to raise $13 million from two Sand Hill Road firms. Another company in the first batch, Reddit, operates a social news website similar to Digg. It was acquired by Condé Nast just a year and a half after its founding and before it had hired any full-time employees. Though the price was not disclosed, reports have pegged it at anywhere from $10 million to $13 million, which means that Y Combinator generated a sizable return, as much as 25 times its initial investment.

Reddit is a good example of what happens to a Y Combinator company when most things go right. But few Y Combinator start-ups enjoy such a straight line to success. That, in part, explains why Graham encourages companies to release products quickly. Doing so, he says, is the best way to turn a bad idea into a good one. “As long as you pay attention to your users, you can change a bad idea,” he says.

Case in point: Justin.tv. The wildly popular online video site now attracts 41 million viewers a month. But it has its roots in a failed start-up called Kiko. The company, a part of Y Combinator’s first class, began with a plan to do for online calendars what Google’s Gmail had done for e-mail. Things went well at first, but then Google decided to do for calendars what it had done for e-mail, making Kiko suddenly irrelevant. Co-founders Justin Kan and Emmett Shear bailed out and sold the company on eBay for $258,000.

Graham lost money on the idea but nonetheless decided to back Kan and Shear’s next venture, a bizarre take on reality television. Kan attached a video camera to his head, wore a backpack stuffed with cell-phone modems, and broadcast his life 24 hours a day. The idea was that Justin.tv would produce similar programs and sell equipment to aspiring reality stars. “I thought it was insanely weird,” Graham recalls.

Kan’s life attracted a few thousand fans and reams of press. But Kan soon noticed that instead of broadcasting from hat-cams, some users were interested in more traditional types of broadcasting. “People were e-mailing us saying, ‘I want to broadcast a bike race or a talk show or a concert,’ ” Kan says. “We were like, ‘OK.’ ” Kan stopped wearing the camera and focused on building a live video platform.

This kind of meandering path, Graham says, is encouraged at Y Combinator. “A lot of great companies started with different ideas,” Graham says, noting that Steve Jobs’s first plan for Apple was to sell do-it-yourself plans for building computers. “You need to listen to your users, figure out what they want, and do that.” When founders are accepted into Y Combinator, they are given a gray T-shirt that says, “Make something people want.” When a company sells, the founders get a black shirt that says, “I made something people want.”

Graham finds unusual parallels between hacking and painting:

But one thing painting taught him was the value of living frugally. “It taught me how to do cheap in a cool way,” Graham says. Artists, Graham discovered, don’t pretend to be rich; they live in sparsely decorated lofts and wear cool vintage clothes. “A start-up is that philosophy applied to business,” he says.

An Altrusian Epic

Sunday, June 7th, 2009

The release of the new Will Ferrell movie naturally had me thinking of the original Land of the Lost television show from my childhood. So, when I saw that the Sci-Fi Channel was showing a marathon, I briefly popped over for a chuckle — and the show seemed much deeper than the one I remembered.

I remembered the Sleestaks, of course — vividly — but I did not remember Enik the Altrusian — the “good” Sleestak. In fact, I did not remember most of the science-fiction elements of the show.

Anyway, Enik’s philosophical discussion with the Sleestaks in the Library of Skulls segued into some truly terrible special effects and ham-acting from the older brother character, so I changed channels, unable to take it — but when I did a little reading, I was shocked to find out that the show’s writing had quite a pedigree:

A number of well-respected writers in the science fiction field contributed scripts to the series, including Larry Niven, Theodore Sturgeon, Ben Bova, and Norman Spinrad, and a number of people involved with Star Trek, such as Dorothy “D.C.” Fontana, Walter Koenig, and David Gerrold. Gerrold, Niven, and Fontana also contributed commentaries to the DVD of the first season.

The next day, when Chiller, a station I didn’t even know I had, was playing its own marathon of the show, I gave it a second chance and recorded a few episodes. (I’ve since found the first season on Hulu.)

The special effects and production values are awful, as is most of the acting — so awful that it’s hard to recognize the writing underneath it all, but if you do, you might enjoy an Altrusian epic:

The series moved along, more memorably than anything else seen on kids’ TV, but did not rise to genius level until the sixth episode. “The Stranger” was written by Walter Koenig and not only introduced Enik and explained some of the background of the show, but also worked beautifully as a morality play. Enik criticizes the Marshalls for being creatures of emotion and not logic, the same flaw that destroyed his race. Will steals the magetti, a device Enik claims will help him get home, in a bout of selfishness that seems to prove the Altrusian’s point about humans until Enik uses his mind powers to force the humans to confront their fears. When Rick forces Enik to own up to his own inadequacies of passion and morality, it is a humbling moment for both the principals and the audience, and Spencer Milligan’s performance is flawless, easily making up for the inadequacies of his young co-stars. It’s a shame Koenig did not write for the show again.

Enik only appeared twice more in the season and the Marshalls took their time exploring their world.

I semi-recommend the following episodes: The Stranger, The Hole, The Search, and Circle.

Missing Milton

Sunday, June 7th, 2009

The myth that the stock-market collapse was due to a failure of Friedman’s principles, Stephen Moore says, could hardly be more easily refuted:

No one was more critical of the Bush spending and debt binge than Friedman. The massive run up in money and easy credit that facilitated the housing and credit bubbles was precisely the foolishness that Friedman spent a lifetime warning against.

This is one of my favorite Friedman anecdotes:

At one of our dinners, Milton recalled traveling to an Asian country in the 1960s and visiting a worksite where a new canal was being built. He was shocked to see that, instead of modern tractors and earth movers, the workers had shovels. He asked why there were so few machines. The government bureaucrat explained: “You don’t understand. This is a jobs program.” To which Milton replied: “Oh, I thought you were trying to build a canal. If it’s jobs you want, then you should give these workers spoons, not shovels.”

Irrigation system can grow crops with salt water

Sunday, June 7th, 2009

A British company has created an irrigation system that can grow crops using salt water:

The dRHS irrigation system consists of a network of sub-surface pipes, which can be filled with almost any water, whether pure, brackish, salted or polluted. The system can even take most industrial waste-water and use it without the need for a purification process.

The pipes are made from a plastic that retains virtually all contaminants while letting clean water through to the plants’ roots.

It was designed by Mark Tonkin of Design Technology and Irrigation, which is based in Brighton. He says that once the pipes have been laid, the system will require little maintenance and therefore no significant costs. This is partly because it’s fed by gravity from an elevated supply tank, and partly because water diffuses through the porous pipe walls, so there are no holes to get blocked up.

The farmer will occasionally have to flush the pipes to clean out salt crystals and dirt, but Tonkin says this is a simple process.

Since the water is delivered directly to the plant roots, there is much less wastage through evaporation and run-off than with traditional irrigation systems. According to the inventor, it is also impossible to over-water plants, as the system will only release more water as plants draw up clean water from the soil.

The dRHS system, which has been in development for ten years, was initially trialled in the UK using tomato plants, and has since been tried out in the US. The next trials will take place in Chile, Libya, Tanzania, Mauritius and Spain. Tonkin says 20,000 metres of pipe are on their way to the Middle East, where it will be tested with water that’s more saline than sea water.

The system has so far supported the growth of tomatoes, radishes, courgettes, peppers, lettuce, strawberries and beans as well as three different types of tree — cherry, olive and prosopis. The company is now trying to grow acacias, oaks and banana trees among others.

A Hail of Bullets, a Heap of Uncertainty

Sunday, June 7th, 2009

A couple years ago Al Baker of the New York Times wrote a surprisingly sensible piece — A Hail of Bullets, a Heap of Uncertainty — about police shootings:

While popular culture has embedded both extremes — the hardened mantra of “shoot to kill” and the benevolent private eye (think Barnaby Jones) who expertly inflicts only a flesh wound — the truth is that neither practice is a staple of police guidelines. In fact, the most likely result when a policeman discharges a gun is that he or she will miss the target completely. So an officer could no sooner shoot to wound than shoot to kill with any rate of success. In life-or-death situations that play out in lightning speed — such precision marksmanship is unrealistic.

New York City police statistics show that simply hitting a target, let alone hitting it in a specific spot, is a difficult challenge:

In 2006, in cases where police officers intentionally fired a gun at a person, they discharged 364 bullets and hit their target 103 times, for a hit rate of 28.3 percent, according to the department’s Firearms Discharge Report. The police shot and killed 13 people last year.

In 2005, officers fired 472 times in the same circumstances, hitting their mark 82 times, for a 17.4 percent hit rate. They shot and killed nine people that year.

In all shootings — including those against people, animals and in suicides and other situations — New York City officers achieved a 34 percent accuracy rate (182 out of 540), and a 43 percent accuracy rate when the target ranged from zero to six feet away. Nearly half the shots they fired last year were within that distance.

In Los Angeles, where there are far fewer shots discharged, the police fired 67 times in 2006 and had 27 hits, a 40 percent hit rate, which, while better than New York’s, still shows that they miss targets more often they hit them.

Is this a matter of bad marksmanship? Not really. Police are not expert marksmen any more than they’re expert martial artists — civilian hobbyists often put in far more training time — but the real issue is context. They’re not shooting at the range:

For example, a 43 percent hit rate for shots fired from zero to six feet might seem low, but at that range it is very likely that something has already gone wrong: perhaps an officer got surprised, or had no cover, or was wrestling with the suspect.

That points to a fascinating aspect of the data: the police are more accurate from 21 to 45 feet than they are from 6 to 21 feet:

In training, scores go down as distance increases. But the number of shots at this distance [21 to 45 feet] is far lower; so it is possible the higher hit rate means there were conditions that allowed greater accuracy.

Mr. Cerar, a retired police commander, put it this way:

You take Olympic shooters, and they practice all the time, and they can hit a fly off a cow’s nose from 100 yards. But if you put a gun in that cow’s hand, you will get a different reaction from the Olympic shooter.

The End of Our Love Affair with Cars

Saturday, June 6th, 2009

If we want to understand the end of our love affair with cars — with American cars — we should give up on economics and turn to melodrama, P.J. O’Rourke says:

Foremost are the horses. Cars can’t be comprehended without them. A hundred and some years ago Rudyard Kipling wrote “The Ballad of the King’s Jest,” in which an Afghan tribesman avers: Four things greater than all things are, — Women and Horses and Power and War.

Insert another “power” after the horse and the verse was as true in the suburbs of my 1950s boyhood as it was in the Khyber Pass.
[...]
Horses and horsepower alike are about status and being cool. A knight in ancient Rome was bluntly called “guy on horseback,” Equesitis. Chevalier means the same, as does Cavalier. Lose the capitalization and the dictionary says, “insouciant and debonair; marked by a lofty disregard of others’ interests, rights, or feelings; high-handed and arrogant and supercilious.” How cool is that? Then there are cowboys — always cool — and the U.S. cavalry that coolly comes to their rescue plus the proverbially cool-handed “Man on Horseback” to whom we turn in troubled times.

Early witnesses to the automobile urged motorists to get a horse. But that, in effect, was what the automobile would do — get a horse for everybody. Once the Model T was introduced in 1908 we all became Sir Lancelot, gained a seat at the Round Table and were privileged to joust for the favors of fair maidens (at drive-in movies). The pride and prestige of a noble mount was vouchsafed to the common man. And woman, too. No one ever tried to persuade ladies to drive sidesaddle with both legs hanging out the car door.

For the purpose of ennobling us schlubs, the car is better than the horse in every way. Even more advantageous than cost, convenience and not getting kicked and smelly is how much easier it is to drive than to ride. I speak with feeling on this subject, having taken up riding when I was nearly 60 and having begun to drive when I was so small that my cousin Tommy had to lie on the transmission hump and operate the accelerator and the brake with his hands.

Read the whole thing.

Government Science and Goodhart’s Law

Saturday, June 6th, 2009

The UK’s National Institute for Clinical Excellence has put acupuncture and chiropractic on the list of approved therapies for non-specific lower back pain, which has led, Daniel Davies says, to back-slapping and high-fiving from the crystals and “life force” crowd:

And so, NICE has decided, on the basis of “the evidence”, that acupuncture and chiropractic are a good way to spend the NHS’s money. Except when you look at it, “the evidence” isn’t really all that great. As Edzard Ernst points out, the Cochrane Institute (the other great temple of evidence-based medicine) actually found chiropractic to be more or less useless, while the evidence for acupuncture is that all of the ancient wisdom and theory of the meridians and qi doesn’t actually confer any great benefit over and above that which can be gained from simply lying on a table and being poked with sticks.

Part of the problem is that in the specific case of lower back pain, it’s a notoriously difficult condition to understand or treat, and a lot of the art is simply to find a nice and professional-sounding way of saying “live with it, there’s nothing we can do” that doesn’t make the patient give up hope and suffer even more. But another part of the problem is that the overall assessment of what “the evidence” was, was made by a committee that had a bunch of spinal manipulation enthusiasts on it.

Which brings me to the problem; this is exactly what we should have expected, and it’s the reason why I’ve been putting the phrase “the evidence” in great big scare-quotes. Because the actual medical evidence on lower back pain isn’t something that can be nicely summarised in a slim paper guideline; it’s spread out across millions of individual lower backs, some fraction of the experiences of which are summarised into hundreds of research papers, which were then distilled down into the Cochrane review, which was itself processed through the NICE committee. Basically what evidence-based medicine is about, at this level, is somebody making a decision about what the facts are going to be.

And if that decision about “what the facts are” is one that is going to determine the handing out of large chunks of government cash, then you bet that the enthusiasts of every theory there is are going to move hell and high water to get themselves on that committee. Not out of any venial motive, but because they believe in their theory, and a contrary NICE guideline has the potential to kill it stone dead. So what happens is that the process of finding out the underlying truth, which is of necessity slow, unclear and often completely open-ended, gets accelerated and politicised. It’s what you might call “government science”.

It’s a phenomenon that’s very familiar to economists under the name “Goodhart’s Law”. Basically, Goodhart’s Law says that “any economic relationship which is used for policy purposes, ceases to be valid”. In other words, you can have an economic model which works tolerably well as an understanding of how, say, the relationship between money, prices and output works. But when you try to use that model to set interest rates, then suddenly the model itself is part of the recursion — part of the system that you’re trying to control — and this changes the nature of the relationship that you were trying to use.

Similarly, in the early days of the evidence-based medicine movement, when they were the Young Turks or punk rockers, shaking up a complacent medical establishment that had got out of touch with the cutting edge of medical research, they had the potential to do a lot of good. But now they are the establishment, and as a result of that, the very evidence that they rely on, is shaped by the fact that it needs to appeal to them. The fact that a movement which begun by trying to bring science back into medicine, has now ended up putting its imprimateur on some obvious pseudoscience, ought to worry us more than it does, because this is only the most obvious manifestation of the general problem.

(Hat tip to Megan McArdle.)

Voynich Manuscript

Friday, June 5th, 2009

The Voynich manuscript is a mysterious, undeciphered, illustrated book thought to have been written in the 15th or 16th century. The author, script, and language of the manuscript remain unknown. Even the illustrations are mysterious:

The first section of the book is almost certainly herbal, but attempts to identify the plants, either with actual specimens or with the stylized drawings of contemporary herbals, have largely failed. Only a couple of plants (including a wild pansy and the maidenhair fern) can be identified with some certainty. Those “herbal” pictures that match “pharmacological” sketches appear to be “clean copies” of these, except that missing parts were completed with improbable-looking details. In fact, many of the plants seem to be composite: the roots of one species have been fastened to the leaves of another, with flowers from a third.

It’s all quite obvious to xkcd though.

The Prisons of Guinea Are Full

Friday, June 5th, 2009

Guineas’s military junta has appointed Captain Moussa Tiegboro Camara to oversee the fight against drugs and serious crime. Captain Camara’s request to the people of Guinea?

“I’m asking you to burn all armed bandits who are caught red-handed committing an armed robbery.”

“The prisons are full and cannot take more people, and the situation cannot continue like that,” he told a meeting of city officials, adding that residents should form self-defense committees to protect themselves against crime.

Family Planning and Runaway Brides

Friday, June 5th, 2009

China’s family planning policy has unintentionally spawned a new problem — runaway brides:

As in other parts of the country, village customs dictate the groom’s family pay the bride’s family a set amount — known as cai li — while the bride furnishes a dowry of mostly simple household items.

In the 1980s, before the start of China’s economic reforms, cai li sums were small.

“When I married, my husband just bought me several sets of clothes,” recalls Zhang Shufen, Mr. Zhou’s mother.

In the 1990s, cai li prices rose to several thousand yuan (about $200 to $400 at today’s conversion rates), mirroring the country’s growing prosperity. But it was only starting in 2002-03 that villagers noticed a sharp spike in cai li prices, which shot up to between 6,000 to 10,000 yuan — several years’ worth of farming income.

Not coincidentally, this was also the period when the first generation of children since the family-planning policy was launched in 1979 started reaching marriageable age.

So the normally frugal Xin’an villagers began saving even more in anticipation of rising wedding costs. While the Zhous are fairly well-off by village standards, they had been scrimping for years, growing their own vegetables and eating mainly rice and noodles, with little meat. The family had curbed spending in anticipation of wedding costs for their son who was working in southern Chinese factories. The hope was that he would return with a prospective mate in tow.

But when the younger Mr. Zhou returned home a year ago, he was still single. “In our village, when a boy is older than 24, 25, it is a shame on him for not marrying,” says his mother.

Last December a family friend told his mother that her nephew recently married a girl from neighboring Sichuan province. The bride had three female friends visiting her, who might be interested in marrying local men, said this friend.

Encouraged, Mr. Zhou and his mother met the three girls the next day. After an hour’s chat with the trio, who claimed to be ages 23, 25 and 27, Mr. Zhou found himself drawn to the prettiest and youngest, Ms. Cai, who had angular features and an ivory complexion.

He proposed marriage. She agreed, with one proviso: cai li of 38,000 yuan, or roughly five years’ worth of farm income. The Zhous agreed, but took the precaution of running a quick background check. Tang Yunshou, Xin’an’s Communist Party secretary, said Ms. Cai’s identity and residential papers checked.

Three days later the couple registered their union at the local registrar’s office. They posed for studio shots, with the bride in a creamy satin gown, the groom in a tuxedo. In one shot, they wear traditional garb, the bride pretending to light a string of firecrackers. Mr. Zhou mugs a grimace, hands to his ears.

They held the wedding banquet a week later, on Jan. 4, where Mr Zhou’s mother formally handed over the dowry — half of it loans from family members — to a woman she believed to be Ms. Cai’s cousin.

The new bride took up residence with her in-laws, and quickly found favor with her diligent and respectful ways, said Mrs. Zhou. “I treated her better than my own daughter,” she said. A red electric scooter, with ribbons on the handles, sits in the living room, a wedding present for Ms. Cai.

Matrimony was catching. Two neighbors sought Ms. Cai out, and asked her to act as matchmaker for their sons. Ms. Cai recommended two girls within a few days. The neighbors each paid 40,000 yuan in cai li.

On Jan. 28, all these brides vanished, leaving the villagers reeling.