Why Climbers Die On Mount Everest

Tuesday, December 16th, 2008

A team of researchers examined Why Climbers Die On Mount Everest:

The overall mortality rate for Everest mountaineers during the entire 86-year period was 1.3 percent; the rate among climbers was 1.6 percent and the rate among sherpas was 1.1 percent. During the past 25 years, a period during which a greater percentage of moutaineers climbed above 8,000 meters, the death rate for non-Himalayan climbers descending via the longer Tibetan northeast ridge was 3.4 percent, while on the shorter Nepal route it was 2.5 percent.

Factors most associated with the risk of death were excessive fatigue, a tendency to fall behind other climbers and arriving at the summit later in the day. Many of those who died developed symptoms such as confusion, a loss of physical coordination and unconsciousness, which suggest high-altitude cerebral edema, a swelling of the brain that results from leakage of cerebral blood vessels. Symptoms of high-altitude pulmonary edema, which is involved in most high-altitude-related deaths, were suprisingly rare.

“High-altitude cerebral edema symptoms were common among those that died, but signs of pulmonary edema, or excessive fluid in the lungs, were unusual” Firth says. “We also were surprised at how few people died due to avalanches and ice falls in recent years – those usually happen at lower altitudes, and overwhelmingly people died during summit bids above 8,000 feet – and that during descents, the mortality rate for climbers was six time that of sherpas.”

While the reduced mortality rate among sherpas during descent suggests that taking time to acclimatize to high altitude could improve climber survival, Firth notes that many other factors may be involved. “Most of the sherpas are born and live their lives at high altitudes, and the competitive process for expedition employment probably selects those who are best adapted to and most skilled for the work. So the ability of lowlanders to acclimate to these very high altitudes needs further investigation.”

The Decline and Fall of an Ultra Rich Online Gaming Empire

Tuesday, December 16th, 2008

Julian Dibbell describes The Decline and Fall of an Ultra Rich Online Gaming Empire founded by former child-star Brock Pierce:

That Pierce lives the life of a former corporate mogul at the age of 28 is remarkable enough in itself. Even more so, perhaps, is that he got here by dominating an industry in which orcs, trolls, elves, dwarves, and minotaurs are major segments of both the customer base and the labor force. That industry is known to insiders as real-money trading, or RMT, and if I tell you now that I’ve made some money in it myself, that’s not because I expect you to take it on my say-so that there are people who might pay as much as $1,800 for an eight-piece suit of Skyshatter chain mail made entirely of fiction and code. Or that there are millions more — players of World of Warcraft, Age of Conan, EverQuest, EVE Online, and other massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs, or MMOs) — who have given other players real money in exchange for the virtual weapons, armor, currencies, and other sought-after items around which these games revolve. Or that despite the game companies’ widespread prohibition of such transactions, their number has grown to support an estimated $2 billion annual trade, a half dozen multimillion-dollar online retail businesses, and an enormous Chinese workforce earning 30 cents an hour playing MMOs and harvesting treasure to supply the major retailers.

It’s all true, but don’t take my word for it: Just ask any of the world’s 20 million MMO gamers, for whom real-money trading has become commonplace, despised by some as a form of cheating and a blight on play, accepted by others as a necessary shortcut through some of the most elaborate (and time-consuming) games ever made. I’m mentioning my own familiarity with RMT — I spent most of 2003 peddling virtual items on eBay and made, if you must know, a grand total of $11,356.70 — only to establish that I was around before the virtual treasure trade got to be big business.

Which is to say, I was around before Brock Pierce and the company he founded — Internet Gaming Entertainment — made its mark on the industry. I was around before most people in the trade had even heard of IGE, let alone before it became a synonym for virtual currency sales. I was around when RMT as a profession was almost exclusively the province of small-timers like me and the very notion of a multinational, 500-employee virtual-items business doing over a quarter billion dollars in trades was practically unimaginable. And I was around three years later when rumors of a $60 million Goldman Sachs investment in IGE first broke and for a moment it seemed possible that Pierce had a handle on something deeper and more enduring than just a profitable business: the future maybe, not only of virtual retailing but of economic life in general.

Technical

Tuesday, December 16th, 2008

I remember first reading about technicals in an account of war-torn Africa. The author assumed the reader would know that “technical” referred a light pickup truck with a gun mounted in the bed. I figured it out, but I long wondered where the term came from:

The term “technical” used to describe such a vehicle appears to have originated in Somalia. The name is thought to have derived from use by the Red Cross there who were often forced to bribe local militias or be the victim of robbery and attacks. The money used for the bribe was then written off as “technical expenses”.

Technicals have been popular in Africa for decades. Back in 1984, Time called the war in Chad The Great Toyota War:

Small groups of Toyota desert vehicles, with 106-mm recoilless rifles mounted at the rear, wheel and charge like cavalry in the vastness of the Sahara. Outriders hang from the sides, firing their AK-47s with deadly grace. Very young and therefore very brave, the men of these small fighting units, or escadrons, whip their Toyotas’ flanks until the vehicles seem to snort and froth at the bit like fine-blood Arab stallions. The young soldiers move silently, without war cries except for the high-pitched scream of their engines.

These men are part of the first and second regiments of the Chad army, which is fighting a daily game of no-prisoners with the rebels who infiltrate from Libya to the north and Sudan to the east. The enemy also uses escadrons of Toyota vehicles, usually along with a 22-ton Mercedes truck for support. Some of these get through government lines, mine the roads and frighten the local population. When they do engage the army, they usually get the worst of it. In the battlefields of what has come to be called the Great Toyota War, the desert is littered with dead vehicles.

Pentagon Eyes Orbiting Power Station

Tuesday, December 16th, 2008

Pentagon Eyes Orbiting Power Station:

Military planners responsible for finding space resources to support troops on the ground think the time may be ripe to advance the 40-year-old space solar power concept to help reduce the logistics train behind forward-deployed forces.

The concept of collecting solar energy above the atmosphere and beaming it to the ground as microwaves or lasers has long been seen among military freethinkers as a way to get electricity to remote airfields, fire bases or other distant outposts without having to haul fuel for diesel generators.

But that out-of-the-box concept may be gaining new life as the incoming administration looks for “green-energy” technologies to reduce reliance on foreign oil, and technologists home in on the hardware that would be needed to orbit deployable sunlight collectors measuring kilometers across and get power down from them to troops on the ground. Engineers studying space solar power (SSP) believe a pilot plant could be orbited fairly soon.

“The end game needs to have a pilot plant in operation within 10 to 12 years,” said John Mankins, chief operating officer of Managed Energy Technologies and a longtime SSP advocate. “By pilot plant I mean a small but full-scale operational system delivering megawatts of power to the Earth.”

The price tag would be relatively small by Pentagon standards, at least initially. Mankins estimates an end-to-end systems study, with some early lab work and low-cost flight-tests, would cost about $100 million and take about three years.
[...]
Mankins said a pilot plant delivering 5-10 megawatts “does mesh nicely” with a notional military requirement for a system to deliver power from space to forward-deployed forces. To meet the 10-year timeline for a pilot plant, he said, it would take another three years after the systems study to put together a flight demonstration in low-Earth orbit, and another four to six years after that to get a pilot plant in geostationary orbit.
[...]
For the Pentagon, there would be distinct tactical benefits even from a pilot plant. It could be a “disruptive game changer on the battlefield,” the report said, providing “energy on demand” across a military theater and potentially supporting “entirely new force structures and capabilities such as ultra long-endurance airborne or terrestrial surveillance or combat systems to include the individual soldier himself.”

Experts estimate that the United States is paying $1 per kilowatt hour or more to supply power to its forward operating bases in Iraq.

The ascendancy of the credit card industry

Tuesday, December 16th, 2008

Robin Stein traces the ascendancy of the credit card industry to its deft reaction to high inflation and usury laws:

Had circumstances been less dire, the news of four urgent phone calls from a New York bank in a single day likely would have been easier to ignore. “Nobody’s historically more suspicious of outsiders than South Dakotans,” Bill Janklow, the former governor of South Dakota, told Frontline in a recent interview.

But it was 1980, South Dakota’s economy was a mess, and suspicion was an instinct that Janklow could not afford. “We were in the poor house,” he recalled. “It cost 42 cents a bushel in 1980 to haul wheat. When something’s only selling for $2.20 a bushel, you certainly can’t afford to be paying almost 50 cents a bushel to ship it.”

The calls were from Citibank, which was having a serious problem of its own. “It was very simple,” said Walter Wriston, then the chairman of Citibank. “We were going broke.”
[...]
By 1980 Citibank was being squeezed between New York state usury laws and double-digit inflation rates. “You are lending money at 12 percent and paying 20 percent,” Mr. Wriston explained. “You don’t have to be Einstein to realize you’re out of business.”

The bank employed 3,000 people in its credit card unit in Long Island at the time, a fact that Mr. Wriston hoped would entice New York lawmakers to offer relief. “All you have to do is lift the usury ceiling to some reasonable amount and we’ll stay here,” Mr. Wriston recalled telling New York’s political leaders. “And they said, ‘Ah, ha! You really won’t move. We’re not going to do anything.’”

What allowed Wriston to make good on his threat to leave New York was a little-noticed December 1978 Supreme Court ruling. The Marquette Bank opinion permitted national banks to export interest rates on consumer loans from the state where credit decisions were made to borrowers nationwide.

So by early 1980, with New York refusing to go along, Citibank set out on a search for new place to base its credit card division. The pickings were slim. Usury laws were still on the books in the vast majority of the states. And federal banking rules required that before banks could set up operations outside their home state, a formal invitation had to be issued by the legislature of the state they wanted to enter. Local bankers had prevented any state legislature from ever extending such an invitation.

This was why Mr. Wriston was so eager to court Mr. Janklow.

In an effort to stimulate the local economy, South Dakota was in the midst of eliminating its usury laws. Mr. Wriston told Mr. Janklow that if South Dakota would quickly pass a bill inviting Citibank into the state, he would bring 400 jobs. To preempt concerns from local banks about new competition, Citibank also promised to open only “a limited” bank. “We’ll put the facility in an inconvenient place for customers and we’ll pay different interest rates,” Mr. Wriston recalled telling Mr. Janklow. “All we want to do is use it to issue cards.”

For Mr. Janklow, it was an easy decision.

“To me, this wasn’t a credit card deal, it was a jobs deal,” he said. “It was an economic opportunity for the state. I was slowly bleeding to death.”

With bipartisan support and backing from South Dakota’s banking association, Janklow proposed a special “emergency” bill. “Citibank actually drafted the legislation,” he said. “Literally we introduced it, and it passed our legislature in one day.”

The arrangement ultimately brought 3,000 high-paying jobs to South Dakota and a host of new suitors from banks across the country. Citibank seemed to just be the beginning.

“It did fall out of the sky,” Mr. Janklow said. “I was going to sleep at night thinking that we were the new financial center of America.”

But other states were quick to catch on. Delaware, which passed similar legislation the following year, would foil Mr. Janklow’s dreams. “By that time, we’d captured a lot, but we thought we were going to get them all. Chase, Manufacturer’s Hanover, Chemical — they all went to Delaware. They were coming here,” he said.

South Dakota would never become the next New York or Hong Kong, but Bill Janklow carved out a niche in credit card operations that remains one of the largest sources of jobs in the state. “The tragedy to me is that if Delaware would have waited one year,” he said, “we would have had 20,000 more jobs in this state today.”

The day Citibank first called will always remain bittersweet to Mr. Janklow. “Four different messages in one day from four different directions,” he added. “That’s never happened to me before or since.”

The inflationary spiral that pushed Citibank to the precipice of disaster propelled the credit card industry into a decade of enormous profits. The elimination of usury restrictions paved the way for double-digit growth. Cardholders, it turned out, were willing to keep on paying 18 percent interest long after inflation subsided and the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rates it charged banks.

Between 1980 and 1990, the number of credit cards more than doubled, credit card spending increased more than five-fold and the average household credit card balance rose from $518 to nearly $2,700. With the cost of money sinking and average balances climbing, profits soared.

Steve Jobs on managing through the economic downturn

Monday, December 15th, 2008

Steve Jobs on managing through the economic downturn:

We’ve had one of these before, when the dot-com bubble burst. What I told our company was that we were just going to invest our way through the downturn, that we weren’t going to lay off people, that we’d taken a tremendous amount of effort to get them into Apple in the first place — the last thing we were going to do is lay them off. And we were going to keep funding. In fact we were going to up our R&D budget so that we would be ahead of our competitors when the downturn was over. And that’s exactly what we did. And it worked. And that’s exactly what we’ll do this time.

Dogbert Explains Risk Management through Financial Derivatives

Monday, December 15th, 2008

Dogbert Explains Risk Management through Financial Derivatives:



Killer CROWS

Sunday, December 14th, 2008

The army’s new remote control gun turret — the CROWS (common remotely operated weapon station) — has turned out to be much more effective than anyone could have expected:

The main issue was that the enemy was no longer able to knock out the turret gunner, early in a firefight, and take away a lot of the vehicles firepower. Because of that, once the enemy opens fire, they are in trouble. The remote turret tends to begin delivering accurate fire right away, and is much more immune to enemy fire than a human gunner. If the vehicle is a Stryker, the enemy will soon find themselves dealing with half a dozen or so heavily armed infantry, who get out of the vehicle and come at the ambushers. Iraqis don’t like that. They also don’t like how some of the CROWS turret equipped vehicles will come after them. All those accurately aimed bullets coming their way, and no enemy soldiers in sight, is demoralizing.

There’s another reason it’s so effective — at least when controlled by American soldiers:

The accuracy of the fire, and uncanny speed with which the CROWS gun moves so quickly and deliberately, is due to something few officers expected. The guys operating these systems grew up playing video games.

What’s this look like from the insurgents’ point of view:

Many Iraqis, especially the bad guys, get distressed while watching a CROWS turret being exercised by some video game addict inside the vehicle. That’s because the most noticeable part of CROWS, as it swivels and “looks” around, is the machine-gun. Many Iraqis don’t even recognize the vidcam and other sensors. They think the machine-gun is, well, sort of R2D2 with a bad attitude and a license to kill.

Rampage

Saturday, December 13th, 2008

I really must learn to stop being shocked by MSM coverage of MMA. David Samuels, writing in The Atlantic, looks at Quinton Rampage Jackson and his trainer, Juanito Ibarra:

After a particularly humiliating loss in Japan during which the newly born-again Jackson was publicly berated by his corner men before being taken to the hospital with broken ribs, Ibarra called the fighter and offered to train him. “I kept hearing through the gyms that Rampage went crazy because he found Jesus Christ,” Ibarra remembers. The trainer shared his own experience of being born again, which followed the soul-crushing ordeal of losing the fighter Oscar de la Hoya, who went on to become boxing’s richest fighter under the tutelage of another trainer. What Rampage lacked was exactly what Ibarra had to teach — technique, control, and an older man’s knowledge of the fight game. Ibarra’s plan involved building up Jackson’s skills to the point where he could win and keep a championship while creating a network of profit-participation deals that would make both men rich. “He has his own rims out now and his own energy drink, his own toy, and we’ve got some other things in the works,” Ibarra explains. “No one uses his name without paying big bucks.”

Apparently “Jackson is glad to tell the story of how he was born again”:

During a two-week partying binge that followed a victory over the Brazilian fighter Ricardo Arona, whom he knocked unconscious with his trademark body-slam, which has been judged to be the hardest blow in all of professional sports by National Geographic’s Sports Science television program, Jackson woke up one night in the middle of a terrifying dream. The devil had his hands on his chest and was preparing to remove his soul. “He had some female spirits around him and he was saying ‘It’s okay,’” Jackson says, his eyes widening at the memory. “Then I heard this strong voice say, ‘Do you know this man?’ And I was like, ‘No.’ He said, ‘It’s not okay.’ And I woke up and grabbed my chest and made a noise that I’d never made before in my life.”

The fighter woke up gasping for air, and spent the next few weeks feeling increasingly frightened and alienated. Some time later, Jackson suffered another moment of chest-gripping terror that was triggered by a radio ad for a Universal Studios theme-park attraction after he had dropped his son D’Angelo off at preschool. “The first thing it said was ‘The curse of’ something—I can’t remember,” Jackson recalls. “And it says, ‘Your soul is mine.’” The voice weirdly echoed Jackson’s dream, and left the fighter feeling even more freaked out. “Later on, when I turned the radio back on, when I got used to being a Christian,” he remembers, “I said, ‘Oh, that’s a damn commercial for the Revenge of the Mummy ride.’”

A few months ago, after losing the belt, Rampage went on a rampage:

The story ends with the line, “Jackson’s trainer, Juanito Ibarra, did not immediately return phone calls.” Internet rumors suggest that Jackson had gone off the deep end and fired his trainer, who had been caught stealing from him.
[...]
I ask him to tell me what he did in the week after the fight.

“You know, what a lot of people don’t understand about me is, I have fun,” he says. “I laugh and joke around all the time. My life is a fun life.”

I ask him why, during that time, he stopped eating food and drinking water.

“I learned something about somebody I loved, and I still love to this day. I love him dearly, and it hurt me,” he says. “I stopped eating and stopped sleeping. I get touched by God, because I’m reading the Bible and I’m staying up and I’m fasting, and when you’re fasting, you get close to God.”

He was afraid to go to sleep, because he was close to God, and when God or Jesus reveals himself to you, the devil comes too, he says. After he came back home from the police station, he had everyone in his house reading the Bible. His door was open. People he didn’t know came in and out of his house. “This one guy I never seen before in my life, Asian dude, came to my door,” Jackson tells me. “I said, ‘If you’re a child of God, you can just walk into my house. If you’re not a child of God, you can’t.’ I remember saying that. That’s about the only thing I remember.”

The abundant fossil fuel you’ve never heard of

Saturday, December 13th, 2008

Some people call it frozen natural gas. Others call it sewer ice. Jeremy Kutner calls it the abundant fossil fuel you’ve never heard of:

In a recently released report, the USGS for the first time announced details of large hydrate reserves in the Alaskan permafrost that should be recoverable using existing technology. The vast field could hold as much as 85 trillion cubic feet of gas — an amount far less than the dream scenarios put forward in the past, but still massive. Even more important, such movement makes the possibility of getting at the mother lode of hydrate resources — those located offshore — increasingly realistic.

“I never thought this would happen so quickly,” says Carolyn Ruppel, a USGS research geophysicist who was heavily involved in prior hydrate research expeditions, referring to the planned production test. While the number of proposed drilling programs is small and significant obstacles remain, “there has been a real change these past four years,” Dr. Ruppel says. “It’s partially from market pressures.”

Underlying the interest in hydrates is their astonishing abundance — and the fact that they exist domestically in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. Their appeal is even greater for countries like Japan and India, which have strained oil or gas reserves but abundant hydrate deposits offshore.

A survey of hydrate estimates published in 2007 put US reserves at around 5,700 trillion cubic feet: “Even this later figure … is [about] 150 times the 95-percent-confidence-level estimate of US conventional natural gas reserve,” survey author Ruppel wrote, “and [about] 900 times the current annual gas consumption in the US.”

Major hydrate research programs have cropped up in resource-constrained countries like South Korea, India, China, and — most notably — Japan, where Edie Allison of the Department of Energy estimates the government has sunk about $200 million into hydrate research. In 2007, Japan partnered with Canada to conduct a six-day production test in the permafrost to gain technical knowledge that could help fuel efforts to tap Japan’s vast undersea hydrate resources, perhaps the only major hydrocarbon reservoir that country has left.

Homemade DVD’s: Going, Going, Gone?

Saturday, December 13th, 2008

Pogue’s terrified that his homemade DVDs are Going, Going, Gone?

Jeez Louise. A conference organizer asked if I could put together a DVD loop of my funniest Web videos, to play in the registration area while attendees stand in line. No problem, I thought: I’ve got all of the original iMovie projects backed up on DVD, in clear cases, neatly arrayed in a drawer next to my desk. (My hard drive wasn’t big enough to hold those 50 videos a year.)

Guess what? On the Mac I use for video editing, most of the DVD’s were unreadable. They’re less than four years old!

Tried them on another machine. About half of them were readable.

Tried them on a MacBook that I’d been sent to review. Incredibly, mercifully, they all came through fine. I was able to rescue all those original iMovie projects and copy them onto new, bigger, cheaper hard drives.

But holy cow—how many thousands of people are backing up onto DVD, thinking that they’ll be set for at least a decade or two?

I know, of course, that home-burned DVD’s, which rely on organic dye that deteriorates with time, are nowhere near as long-lived as commercially pressed discs. But man. Four years? Scared the bejeezus out of me.

I’ve been told by experts that the gold DVD blanks can indeed last 100 years. Guess I’ll be trying that next!

Google Books and Magazines

Friday, December 12th, 2008

I didn’t think about it much when I heard that Google Books would be including magazines — until Chris Radcliff of GeekDad pointed out that this included decades of Popular Science and Popular Mechanics:

Let the nerdgasmic loss of productivity commence!

Rudolph the Jewish-American Reindeer

Friday, December 12th, 2008

A Jewish mother had “Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer” pulled from the kindergarten pageant, because it mentions Christmas. Jeffrey Goldberg responds:

Of course, the song “Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer” was written by a Jewish-American songwriter, Johnny Marks. He also wrote “I Heard the Bells on Christmas Day.” Also written by Jews: “I’ll be Home for Christmas,” “It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year,” “The Christmas Song (Chestnuts Roasting on an Open Fire),” and of course, the mother of all Jewish-written Christmas songs, “White Christmas,” by Irving Berlin. Why, you could almost say there’s a conspiracy by Jews to dominate the Christmas-jingle-writing industry!

Why doesn’t the USA just buy the Afghan poppy harvest?

Friday, December 12th, 2008

Why doesn’t the USA just buy the Afghan poppy harvest?

Opiate painkilling drugs are in critically short supply across the developing world. So why doesn’t the USA just buy the Afghan poppy harvest, process it into painkilling meds, and distribute them to poor countries?
  1. This would cut off the Taliban’s chief source of funding.
  2. It would put the average Afghan farmer on the side of the US-supported government instead of the Taliban.
  3. It would play to our strength — money. The Taliban has more local knowledge, more time, more patience, more willingess to shed innocent blood. But we have more money. They might be able to outfight us, out-corrupt us, or out-terrorize us, but they can’t outbid us.
  4. It would put the US on record as alleviating suffering all over the world.
  5. By fighting the Taliban with dollars instead of (as many) soldiers, we’d suffer a lot fewer killed and maimed Americans.
  6. It might even be cheaper. Soldiers, tanks, planes, humvees, night vision goggles, bullets, Predator drones, etc. are really, really, expensive.

Rich brains vs. poor brains in childhood

Friday, December 12th, 2008

I had some questions about the recent study showing brain differences between rich kids and poor kids.

Tyler Cowen did too, so he asked Michelle Dawson, who had this to say about the study:

I read the poor vs rich kids brains study (Kishiyama et al.). It’s a very small study (13 in each group) and the groups aren’t matched on ethnicity. In the major task (the one which got media attention), where the authors looked at ERPs [TC: here is a link on ERP], the performance of the two groups was the same. The performance of the two groups on a Stroop task, a classic test of what the poor kids are said to be incapable of, was also the same. The major performance difference between groups was on vocabulary (the WISC-III vocabulary test), but only a few tests were used. There was no attempt to match the groups on IQ.

So, as Cowen reiterates, the observed difference in electrical current patterns may depend on IQ differences, not poverty, and on the actual major task the poor kids did just as well.