An Econometrics Lesson

Friday, June 20th, 2008

Arnold Kling offers An Econometrics Lesson:

I received an email from a reader who was very excited to find that over the past 70 years the correlation between excess health care inflation (the price of health care relative to the overall CPI) and the proportion of health care spending paid for by third parties was 0.92 (out of a maximum of 1.00)

I wrote back saying that correlation does not imply causation. He replied that he understood that, but still, with a correlation that high there must be something.

I’m sorry, but the inability to infer causation from correlation has nothing to do with the size of the correlation coefficient. It reflects the process generating the data. In a controlled experiment, you often can say something about causation. When you just observe some data, you cannot.

In addition, time series data (data that cover long time periods) are very subject to spurious correlation. Over time, data tend to follow trends. Any two trends are automatically correlated, whether there is a causal relationship or not.

When you look at data over time, it is important to ask yourself how many data points you really have. With a strong trend, you probably should just think of yourself as having two data points — the beginning and the end point. If there are a few sharp swings in the data, then you might have three or four effective data points. The fewer the number of effective data points, the harder it is to distinguish among alternative sources of causality.

That is why most macro-econometrics is junk science.

Virginia man sheds 80 pounds eating at McDonald’s

Friday, June 20th, 2008

Virginia man sheds 80 pounds eating at McDonald's:

A Virginia man lost about 80 pounds in six months by eating nearly every meal at McDonald’s.

Not Big Macs, french fries and chocolate shakes. Mostly salads, wraps and apple dippers without the caramel sauce.

Chris Coleson tipped the scales at 278 pounds in December. The 5-foot-8 Coleson now weighs 199 pounds and his waist size has dropped from 50 to 36.

No mention of Super Size Me?

Bright Chunks at Phoenix Lander’s Mars Site Must Have Been Ice

Friday, June 20th, 2008

Bright Chunks at Phoenix Lander's Mars Site Must Have Been Ice:

Dice-size crumbs of bright material have vanished from inside a trench where they were photographed by NASA’s Phoenix Mars Lander four days ago, convincing scientists that the material was frozen water that vaporized after digging exposed it.

Progressive Atheocracy

Thursday, June 19th, 2008

Do we live in a progressive atheocracy?

An America where every progressive in any position of influence or authority was replaced by an equal and opposite fundamentalist, and vice versa, is one you would have no hesitation in describing as a fundamentalist theocracy. Which implies quite inexorably that the America we do live in, the real one, can be fairly described as a progressive atheocracy — that is, a system of government based on an official areligion, progressivism.

Naming a Univeristy of Chicago research center after Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman has upset some of the faculty

Thursday, June 19th, 2008

The self-satire is almost too much. Naming a Univeristy of Chicago research center after Nobel Prize winner Milton Friedman has upset some of the faculty:

In a letter to U. of C. President Robert Zimmer, 101 professors — about 8 percent of the university’s full-time faculty — said they feared that having a center named after the conservative, free-market economist could “reinforce among the public a perception that the university’s faculty lacks intellectual and ideological diversity.”

You see, the largely progressive faculty “fear” that naming the center after a “conservative” economist would imply a lack of intellectual and ideological diversity. It’s almost as if diversity doesn’t mean diversity…

Million-Dollar Babies

Thursday, June 19th, 2008

Preemies can cost 15 times as much to care for as full-term babies — in their first year alone — making some of them Million-Dollar Babies:

Preemies are a quickly expanding class of patients in the U.S., Britain, and other advanced nations. And the costs and technical challenges of caring for them are a growing source of controversy. Nearly 13% of all babies in the U.S. are preemies, a 20% increase since 1990. A 2006 report by the National Academy of Sciences found that the 550,000 preemies born each year in the U.S. run up about $26 billion in annual costs, mostly related to care in NICUs. That represents about half of all the money hospitals spend on newborns. But the number, large as it is, may understate the bill. Norman J. Waitzman, a professor of economics at the University of Utah who worked on the National Academy report, says the study considered just the first five years of the preemies’ lives. Factor in the cost of treating all of the possible lifelong disabilities and the years of lost productivity for the caregivers, and the real tab may top $50 billion, Waitzman says.

In the U.S., corporations handle most of the financial burden. Employers generally cover some or all of the hospital charges in their health plans, and they also must deal with lost work hours of staff who spend weeks, sometimes months, attending to their premature infants. Corporations pay out nearly 15 times as much for babies born prematurely in their first year of life as for full-term babies, at an average cost of about $41,000 per child. For the earliest of the preemies, who are born in fewer than 28 weeks and spend up to three months in the hospital, the tab is higher. Says Waitzman: “The million-dollar babies are there.”

Ryan was not a million-dollar baby, but he wasn’t far from it. The cost for his first two months in the hospital exceeded $400,000, not including certain surgeries and procedures. Because Eric is a technology security expert at the U.S. Energy Dept. and Andrea is an intelligence analyst for a government contractor, the family had good health insurance through the Blue Cross Blue Shield Federal Employee Program. They could also navigate the government bureaucracy and get Ryan qualified for Medicaid, which covered the bills that Blue Cross didn’t. To help pay for a nurse, they applied for another state program in Maryland. “We used to play a game: How many bills would we get?” says Eric. “We got up to 12 per day.”

The trend points to more and more “heroic” rescues:

Technological breakthroughs are allowing physicians to save babies at younger and younger ages. Births at 28 weeks are now routine, and the outer edge of viability is 22 weeks. In the next three to five years, doctors could push the threshold to as low as 20 weeks, at which age the infants would weigh about 1 pound, measure 10 inches long, and require even more costly and complicated treatments.

No one wants to admit the enormous opportunity cost of keeping a preemie alive. Not only does preemie care cost a lot, but premature babies often have lingering medical problems and disabilities — and keeping a disabled child typically means having fewer other, healthy children.

Of course, the real reason for all these heroic measures is that they’re making some folks a lot of money:

For hospitals struggling with cost overruns in other areas, NICUs can be havens of healthy revenue growth and profits. Children’s National sets the goal of 4% profit margins overall, but NICU profits can be double that. Last November the hospital unveiled a $75 million tower that features various specialty units to treat heart and brain problems of preemies. Its expansion plans include a second NICU that will open in 2009. It will have 54 beds, boosting Children’s total preemie capacity by 25%. All of the rooms will be private and will be equipped with Internet systems that allow neurologists to monitor brain function from their homes.

The Electric Car Lives

Thursday, June 19th, 2008

The Electric Car Lives, Matt Vella of BusinessWeek claims, in the form of Think Global’s new Ox:

An electrified people’s car for the 21st century, the Ox is a preview of Think’s next-generation production vehicle, due out in 2011. Roughly the size of a Toyota Prius, the Ox can travel between 125 and 155 miles before needing a recharge, and zips from zero to 60 miles per hour in about 8.5 seconds. Its lithium-ion batteries can be charged to 80% capacity in less than an hour, and slender solar panels integrated into the roof power the onboard electronics. Inside, the hatchback includes a bevy of high-tech gizmos such as GPS navigation, a mobile Internet connection, and a key fob that lets drivers customize the car’s all-digital dashboard. Pricing has yet to be announced, but the company’s current vehicles cost less than $25,000.

What about the name Ox says zippy little town car?

By the way, this stat puts some things in perspective:

Still, the American market for electric vehicles “is virtually nonexistent,” says John O’Dell, a senior editor specializing in green vehicles for car-buying site Edmunds.com. Even well-established gas-electric hybrids such as the Prius and Honda’s Civic account for barely 3% of U.S. auto sales.

Cancer patient recovers after injection of immune cells

Thursday, June 19th, 2008

Cancer patient recovers after injection of immune cells:

A cancer patient has made a full recovery after being injected with billions of his own immune cells in the first case of its kind, doctors have disclosed.

The 52-year-old, who was suffering from advanced skin cancer, was free from tumours within eight weeks of undergoing the procedure.

After two years he is still free from the disease which had spread to his lymph nodes and one of his lungs.

Doctors took cells from the man’s own defence system that were found to attack the cancer cells best, cloned them and injected back into his body, in a process known as “immunotherapy”.

If geeks talked about cookbooks the way they talk about RPG books

Thursday, June 19th, 2008

If geeks talked about cookbooks the way they talk about RPG books, Lore Sjöberg explains, the results would not be pretty:

Posted: 12:15 a.m. by LordOrcus I’m so mad that there’s a new edition of The Better Joy Cookbook out. Thanks for making my old copy obsolete, you greedy hacks! For five years now, my friends have been coming over for my eggplant Parmesan, and now I’m never going to be able serve it again unless I shell out 35 bucks for the latest version.

Posted: 12:42 a.m. by KathraxisHey, I have a question! When you preheat the oven, can you start it before you measure out the ingredients, or do you have to do it afterward? Please answer quickly, my friends and I have been arguing about it for four hours and we’re getting pretty hungry.

Posted: 12:48 a.m. by Goku1440 I found an awesome loophole! On page 242 it says “Add oregano to taste!” It doesn’t say how much oregano, or what sort of taste! You can add as much oregano as you want! I’m going to make my friends eat infinite oregano and they’ll have to do it because the recipe says so!

Posted: 1:02 a.m. by barrybarrybarry I can’t believe I spent 35 dollars on a cookbook that doesn’t have a recipe for peanut butter and jelly sandwiches. When I buy a cookbook, I expect it to tell me how to cook. And don’t tell me to just make a PBJ myself, I’m not some sort of hippy artist pretentious “freeform cook.”

Posted: 1:08 a.m. by jvmkanelly Where are the recipes for chatting with friends while cooking? Where are the recipes for conversation over the meal? When I throw a dinner party, I want it to be a PARTY. I guess the idiots who use the Better Joy Cookbook just cook and eat in stony silence, never saying a word or even looking each other in the eye.

Posted: 1:23 a.m. by LordOrcus Hey, guess what? They’re coming out with The Better Joy Book of Hors D’oeuvres. It just goes to show that the publishers are a bunch of corporate greedheads who care more about money than they do about cooking. Is it too much to ask for a single cookbook that contains all possible recipes?

Posted: 1:48 a.m. by specsheetHey, everyone. I can tell just by reading the recipe that if you prepare eggs benedict as written, the sauce will separate. My mom always said the other kids made fun of me because they were jealous of my intelligence, so I must be right. Everyone who’s saying that they followed the recipe and it came out perfect is either lying, or loves greasy separated hollandaise sauce.

Posted: 1:52 a.m. by IAmEdAs I have pointed out MANY TIMES, several of these recipes contain raisins, and I, like most people, am ALLERGIC to raisins! And before you tell me to substitute dried cranberries, I will reiterate that I am discussing the recipes AS WRITTEN. I do not appreciate your ATTACKING ME with helpful suggestions!

Posted: 2:12 a.m. by HerodotusI just have to laugh at the recipe for Beef Wellington. In Wellington’s day, ovens didn’t have temperature settings! And pate de foie gras certainly didn’t come in cans. It’s like the authors didn’t even care about replicating authentic early 19th century cooking techniques!

Posted: 2:17 a.m. by LordOrcus I have read the new Better Joy Cookbook and I am devastated to my very core. Their macaroni and cheese recipe, the very macaroni and cheese I’ve been making since I was in college, has been ravaged and disfigured and left bleeding on the page. Where once it contained only cheddar cheese, now the recipe calls for a mix of cheddar and Colby. It may contain macaroni, and it may contain cheese, but it is not macaroni and cheese. This is a slap in the face and a knife in the gut. You have lost me, Better Joy Cookbook. I would bid you goodbye, but I wish you nothing but the pain and rage you have delivered unto me.

Inside Gate, India’s Good Life; Outside, the Servants’ Slums

Wednesday, June 18th, 2008

I suppose some people find a headline like this — Inside Gate, India’s Good Life; Outside, the Servants’ Slums — profound and moving, a terrible indictment of a heartless system. I’ll let them gnash their teeth at India’s uneven economic growth:

When the scorch of summer hit this north Indian boomtown, and the municipal water supply worked only a few hours each day, inside a high-rise tower called Hamilton Court, Jaya Chand could turn on her kitchen tap around the clock, and water would gush out.

The same was true when the electricity went out in the city, which it did on average for 12 hours a day, something that once prompted residents elsewhere in Gurgaon to storm the local power office. All the while, the Chands’ flat screen television glowed, the air-conditioners hummed, and the elevators cruised up and down Hamilton Court’s 25 floors.

Hamilton Court — complete with a private school within its gates, groomed lawns and security guards — is just one of the exclusive gated communities that have blossomed across India in recent years. At least for the newly moneyed upper middle class, they offer at high prices what the government cannot, at least not to the liking of their residents.

These enclaves have emerged on the outskirts of prospering, overburdened cities, from this frontier town next to the capital to the edges of seam-splitting Bangalore. They allow their residents to buy their way out of the hardships that afflict vast multitudes in this country of more than one billion. And they reflect the desires of India’s small but growing ranks of wealthy professionals, giving them Western amenities along with Indian indulgences: an army of maids and chauffeurs live in a vast shantytown across the street.

I’ve been to Gurgaon, and it’s obviously growing at a ludicrous pace, far faster then the government-provided infrastructure can grow:

The city’s population has nearly doubled in the last six years, to 1.5 million. The skyline is dotted with scaffolds. Glass towers house companies like American Express and Accenture. Not far from Hamilton Court, Burberry and BMW have set up shop.

State services, meanwhile, have barely kept pace. The city has neither enough water nor electricity for the population. There is no sewage treatment plant yet; construction is scheduled to begin this year.

Some odd commentary:

India has long lived with such inequities, and though a Maoist rebellion is building in the countryside, the nation has for the most part skirted social upheaval through a critical safety valve: giving the poor their chance to vent at the ballot box. Indeed, four years ago, voters threw out the incumbent government, with its “India Shining” slogan, because it was perceived to have neglected the poor.

I’m sure the “critical safety valve” of electoral politics will save India’s poor. After all, it got them free color TVs.

The New, New City

Wednesday, June 18th, 2008

Rome was not built in a day, but The New, New City is:

In both China and the Persian Gulf, cities comparable in size to New York have sprouted up almost overnight. Only 30 years ago, Shenzhen was a small fishing village of a few thousand people, and Dubai had merely a quarter million people. Today Shenzhen has a population of eight million, and Dubai’s glittering towers, rising out of the desert in disorderly rows, have become playgrounds for wealthy expatriates from Riyadh and Moscow. Long-established cities like Beijing and Guangzhou have more than doubled in size in a few decades, their original outlines swallowed by rings of new development. Built at phenomenal speeds, these generic or instant cities, as they have been called, have no recognizable center, no single identity. It is sometimes hard to think of them as cities at all. Dubai, which lays claim to some of the world’s most expensive private islands, the tallest building and soon the largest theme park, has been derided as an urban tomb where the rich live walled off from the poor migrant workers who serve them. Shenzhen is often criticized as a product of unregulated development, better suited to the speculators that first spurred its growth than to the workers housed in huge complexes of factory-run barracks. Yet for architects these cities have also become vast fields of urban experimentation, on a scale that not even the early Modernists, who first envisioned the city as a field of gleaming towers, could have dreamed of.

The Web Time Forgot

Wednesday, June 18th, 2008

Alex Wright calls Paul Otlet’s réseau The Web Time Forgot:

In 1934, Otlet sketched out plans for a global network of computers (or “electric telescopes,” as he called them) that would allow people to search and browse through millions of interlinked documents, images, audio and video files. He described how people would use the devices to send messages to one another, share files and even congregate in online social networks. He called the whole thing a “réseau,” which might be translated as “network” — or arguably, “web.”

Historians typically trace the origins of the World Wide Web through a lineage of Anglo-American inventors like Vannevar Bush, Doug Engelbart and Ted Nelson. But more than half a century before Tim Berners-Lee released the first Web browser in 1991, Otlet (pronounced ot-LAY) described a networked world where “anyone in his armchair would be able to contemplate the whole of creation.”

Although Otlet’s proto-Web relied on a patchwork of analog technologies like index cards and telegraph machines, it nonetheless anticipated the hyperlinked structure of today’s Web. “This was a Steampunk version of hypertext,” said Kevin Kelly, former editor of Wired, who is writing a book about the future of technology.

Otlet’s vision hinged on the idea of a networked machine that joined documents using symbolic links. While that notion may seem obvious today, in 1934 it marked a conceptual breakthrough. “The hyperlink is one of the most underappreciated inventions of the last century,” Mr. Kelly said. “It will go down with radio in the pantheon of great inventions.”

Today, Otlet and his work have been largely forgotten, even in his native Belgium. Although Otlet enjoyed considerable fame during his lifetime, his legacy fell victim to a series of historical misfortunes — not least of which involved the Nazis marching into Belgium and destroying much of his life’s work. [...] The Germans cleared out the original Mundaneum site to make way for an exhibit of Third Reich art, destroying thousands of boxes filled with index cards. Otlet died in 1944, a broken and soon-to-be-forgotten man.

Are soap operas a form of birth control?

Wednesday, June 18th, 2008

Are soap operas a form of birth control?

In 1960, the average Brazilian woman had 6.3 children. By 2000, the fertility rate was down to 2.3. The decline was comparable to China’s, but Brazil didn’t have a one-child policy. In fact, for a while it was even illegal to advertise contraceptives.

Many factors account for the drop in Brazilian fertility, but one recent study identified a factor most people probably wouldn’t consider: soap operas (novelas). Novelas are huge in Brazil, and the network Rede Globo effectively has a monopoly on their production.

During the past few decades, the vast majority of the population, of all social classes, has regularly tuned into the evening showings. The study, conducted by Eliana La Ferrara of Italy’s Bocconi University and Alberto Chong and Suzanne Duryea of the Inter-American Development Bank, analyzed novelas aired from 1965 to 1999 in the top two time slots and found that they depict families that are much smaller than those in the real Brazil. Seventy-two percent of leading female characters age 50 or below had no children at all, and 21 percent had just one child. Hence, the authors hypothesized that the soap operas could be acting as a kind of birth control.

Using census data from 1970 to 1991 and data on the entry of Rede Globo into different markets, the researchers found that women living in areas that received Globo’s broadcast signal had significantly lower fertility. (And yes, the study did control for all sorts of factors and addressed the concern that the entry of Globo might have been driven by trends that also contribute to fertility decline. I’ll spare you the gory econometric details.) Additionally, people in areas with Globo’s signal were more likely to name their children after novela characters, suggesting that it was the novelas specifically, and not TV in general, that influenced childbearing.

Food Revolution That Starts With Rice

Wednesday, June 18th, 2008

Cornell professor Norman T. Uphoff is leading a Food Revolution That Starts With Rice:

Harvests typically double, he says, if farmers plant early, give seedlings more room to grow and stop flooding fields. That cuts water and seed costs while promoting root and leaf growth.
[...]
Dr. Uphoff grew up on a Wisconsin farm milking cows and doing chores. In 1966, he graduated from Princeton with a master’s degree in public affairs and in 1970 from the University of California, Berkeley, with a doctorate in political science.

At Cornell, he threw himself into rural development, irrigation management and credit programs for small farmers in the developing world.

In 1990, a secret philanthropist (eventually revealed to be Charles F. Feeney, a Cornell alumnus who made billions in duty-free shops) gave the university $15 million to start a program on world hunger. Dr. Uphoff was the institute’s director for 15 years.

The directorship took him in late 1993 to Madagascar. Slash-and-burn rice farming was destroying the rain forest, and Dr. Uphoff sought alternatives.

He heard that a French Jesuit priest, Father Henri de Laulanié, had developed a high-yield rice cultivation method on Madagascar that he called the System of Rice Intensification.

Dr. Uphoff was skeptical. Rice farmers there typically harvested two tons per hectare (an area 100 by 100 meters, or 2.47 acres). The group claimed 5 to 15 tons.

“I remember thinking, ‘Do they think they can scam me?’ ” Dr. Uphoff recalled. “I told them, ‘Don’t talk 10 or 15 tons. No one at Cornell will believe it. Let’s shoot for three or four.’ ”

Dr. Uphoff oversaw field trials for three years, and the farmers averaged eight tons per hectare. Impressed, he featured S.R.I. on the cover of his institute’s annual reports for 1996 and 1997.

Dr. Uphoff never met the priest, who died in 1995. But the success prompted him to scrutinize the method and its origins.

One clear advantage was root vigor. The priest, during a drought, had noticed that rice plants and especially roots seemed much stronger. That led to the goal of keeping fields damp but not flooded, which improved soil aeration and root growth.

Moreover, wide spacing let individual plants soak up more sunlight and send out more tillers — the shoots that branch to the side. Plants would send out upwards of 100 tillers. And each tiller, instead of bearing the usual 100 or so grains, would puff up with 200 to 500 grains.

One drawback was weeds. The halt to flooding let invaders take root, and that called for more weeding. A simple solution was a rotating, hand-pushed hoe, which also aided soil aeration and crop production.

But that meant more labor, at least at first. It seemed that as farmers gained skill, and yields rose, the overall system became labor saving compared with usual methods.

Dr. Uphoff knew the no-frills approach went against the culture of modern agribusiness but decided it was too good to ignore. In 1998, he began promoting it beyond Madagascar, traveling the world, “sticking my neck out,” as he put it.

Slowly, it caught on, but visibility brought critics.

The verdict isn’t in yet.

Quaker Clearness

Wednesday, June 18th, 2008

In the latest installment of his open letter to progressives, Mencius Moldbug briefly mentions some Quaker terminology — but when I looked at the list of terms, I was reminded of another sect entirely:

Clearness
a process undergone to discern the true leading of the Spirit of God, especially in ambiguous or complicated situations. Friends often work with Clearness committees when struggling with a difficult issue.

I suppose the Spirit of God makes sure that one’s reactive bank does not insert erroneous data into one’s analytical thinking.