Your presidential candidate: Hot or not?

Tuesday, February 12th, 2008

Your presidential candidate: Hot or not? looks at various voting schemes, because the scheme we use in the U.S. is not the only way to vote:

Voting experts — academics who study what’s known as “social choice theory” — have long complained that the counting system the United States uses for most state and federal elections, called plurality voting, is probably the worst electoral system one can design. Arrow’s theorem shows that no method is perfect, but ours is particularly susceptible to the “spoiler effect.” The plurality vote awards the election to the candidate who gets the largest share of the vote, regardless of whether that share suggests any meaningful support in the population. If there are more than three people on the ballot, the candidates who share the most popular positions will split the vote, increasing the electability of the candidate whom the majority finds most objectionable.

Poundstone writes that in at least five of the 45 presidential elections that the United States has held since 1828 (the first year that presidents were picked through a popular vote), the plurality vote caused the second most popular candidate to win. The most recent such race, of course, was in 2000, when Nader siphoned off enough votes from Al Gore in Florida to hand the state, and thus the nation, to Bush (Nader won 97,000 votes there; Bush won by 537). Other spoiled elections occurred in 1844, 1848, 1884 and 1912. The 1992 race, starring Ross Perot, was also probably spoiled for George H.W. Bush, in Bill Clinton’s favor. With New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg considering a run this year, we might see another billionaire spoil the chances of a front-runner; Bloomberg, unlike Perot, would probably split votes with a Democrat, improving a Republican candidate’s prospects.

Considering this history of spoiled elections, Poundstone calculates at least “an 11 percent rate of catastrophic failure” for the plurality vote. “Were the plurality vote a car or an airliner, it would be recognized for what it is — a defective consumer product, unsafe at any speed,” he writes.
[...]
The spoiler effect is just the most pernicious of the many shortcomings of our current voting system. Another problem is strategic voting: Because we’re all hyper-aware of the power of spoilers, plurality voting pushes us to vote not the way we feel, but the way we expect others will vote. There were many voters in 2000 who ranked Nader first, Gore second and Bush third. But according to polls, a huge percentage of these people didn’t vote for their first choice — Nader — but, instead, for their second, Gore, because Nader had no chance of winning, and thus a vote for him was actually a vote for Bush. So Nader, like other third-party candidates, got short-changed. Though he may have appealed to a large slice of the electorate, his results underreported his popularity.

As the article title implies, one of the many alternate voting schemes is the one used on Hot or Not:

The method is called “range voting,” and it works in the same way you rate movies on Netflix, books on Amazon, or people on Hot or Not. When you go to vote, you give each candidate on the ballot a rating on a 10- or 100-point scale. Maybe you say Bush is 1 out of 10, Nader is 8, Gore is 5. The winner is the candidate who has the highest average score. Range voting has a number of advantages over how we vote today: Like IRV, it prevents spoilers, but it also obeys monotonocity (a winner can’t lose by getting more votes), it’s quite impervious to strategic voting (it’s hard to game the system by giving false ratings to your candidate or his opponents), and it’s “expressive” — you get to say not only that you like one candidate more than another, but by how much you like him.

Range voting is the pet project of Warren Smith, a mathematician who runs a very informative Web site on the subject. Unfortunately, it hasn’t progressed much beyond the Web. No major public institution uses range voting to elect officials.

Russia shuts university that displeased Putin

Tuesday, February 12th, 2008

Russia shuts university that displeased Putin:

The Kremlin was yesterday accused of mounting an unprecedented attack on academic freedom after one of Russia’s top universities was closed.

The European University at St Petersburg (EUSP) has been forced to suspend its teaching after officials claimed that its historic buildings were “a fire risk”. On Friday a court ordered that all academic work cease, classrooms be sealed and the university’s library shut.

Academics at the EUSP said the move was politically motivated — and followed a row last year over a programme funded by the European commission to improve the monitoring of Russian elections. The university accepted a three-year, £500,000 EU grant to run a project advising Russia’s political parties on matters such as how to ensure elections are not rigged.

Last October, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, launched a vitriolic attack on the EUSP — which has close links with universities in the UK and US — accusing it of being an agent of foreign meddling.

I hear the Russians like a strong leader.

Amsterdam’s War on Sex

Tuesday, February 12th, 2008

Amsterdam’s War on Sex has begun, and they seem to think they can eliminate “sleaze” by making it illegal again:

Amsterdam without the Red Light District? Wouldn’t that be like Paris without the Eiffel Tower? Amsterdam’s mayor, Job Cohen, and his aldermen have demonstrated little nostalgia for the district, which has been the world’s most famous home of sexual permissiveness since the 15th century. They first unveiled the plan to close it in December; last month they revoked the licenses of two widely known sex venues, the Casa Rosso and the Banana Bar. The next step is to buy out the real estate owners. Last fall the city struck a deal with a powerful brothel owner, Charles Geerts (known as “Fat Charlie”), to buy 20 buildings.

The driving force behind the cleanup is Lodewijk Asscher. A young star of the Dutch Labour Party and deputy mayor of Amsterdam, Asscher believes it’s time to deliver his hometown from sleaze—even if he’s scuppering a $100 million-a-year industry in the process. He is pleasantly surprised, he says, by the public support he’s gotten for the plan. “Every day I get e-mails,” he says. A recent survey confirms the sentiment: the city administration’s polling agency found that 67 percent of Amsterdam’s population supports a clampdown on sketchy business. The Amsterdam City Council approved the plan about two weeks ago by an overwhelming 43-2 majority.

Dane, Tunisians arrested in cartoonist murder plot

Tuesday, February 12th, 2008

Dane, Tunisians arrested in cartoonist murder plot:

A Danish citizen of Moroccan descent and two Tunisians were arrested in Denmark on Tuesday over a plot to murder one of 12 cartoonists whose drawings of the Prophet Mohammad caused worldwide uproar in 2006.

The Security and Intelligence Service (PET) said the arrests near Aarhus in western Denmark were made after lengthy surveillance to prevent a “terror-related killing” that was in an early stage of planning.

PET said it expected the 40-year-old Danish citizen to be released pending further investigation. The Tunisians will remain detained while deportation proceedings are brought against them.

According to Jyllands-Posten, the newspaper that originally published the cartoons in September 2005, the suspects are accused of planning to kill 73-year-old Kurt Westergaard.

He drew the cartoon that caused the most controversy, depicting the founder of Islam with a bomb in his turban. The paper reproduced that drawing on its Web site on Tuesday.

I didn’t notice that last part immediately. Nice.

Pakistan nuclear staff go missing

Tuesday, February 12th, 2008

This does not sound good. Pakistan nuclear staff go missing:

Two employees of Pakistan’s atomic energy agency have been abducted in the country’s restive north-western region abutting the Afghan border, police say.

The technicians went missing on the same day as Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan, Tariq Azizuddin, was reportedly abducted in the same region.

A Primeval Tide of Toxins

Monday, February 11th, 2008

A Primeval Tide of Toxins tells a story that sounds like something out of a bad sci-fi flick:

The fireweed began each spring as tufts of hairy growth and spread across the seafloor fast enough to cover a football field in an hour.

When fishermen touched it, their skin broke out in searing welts. Their lips blistered and peeled. Their eyes burned and swelled shut. Water that splashed from their nets spread the inflammation to their legs and torsos.

“It comes up like little boils,” said Randolph Van Dyk, a fisherman whose powerful legs are pocked with scars. “At nighttime, you can feel them burning. I tried everything to get rid of them. Nothing worked.”

As the weed blanketed miles of the bay over the last decade, it stained fishing nets a dark purple and left them coated with a powdery residue. When fishermen tried to shake it off the webbing, their throats constricted and they gasped for air.

After one man bit a fishing line in two, his mouth and tongue swelled so badly that he couldn’t eat solid food for a week. Others made an even more painful mistake, neglecting to wash the residue from their hands before relieving themselves over the sides of their boats.

For a time, embarrassment kept them from talking publicly about their condition. When they finally did speak up, authorities dismissed their complaints — until a bucket of the hairy weed made it to the University of Queensland’s marine botany lab.

Samples placed in a drying oven gave off fumes so strong that professors and students ran out of the building and into the street, choking and coughing.

Scientist Judith O’Neil put a tiny sample under a microscope and peered at the long black filaments. Consulting a botanical reference, she identified the weed as a strain of cyanobacteria, an ancestor of modern-day bacteria and algae that flourished 2.7 billion years ago.

Even the reason for the fireweed comes straight from sci-fi:

Industrial society is overdosing the oceans with basic nutrients — the nitrogen, carbon, iron and phosphorous compounds that curl out of smokestacks and tailpipes, wash into the sea from fertilized lawns and cropland, seep out of septic tanks and gush from sewer pipes.

Modern industry and agriculture produce more fixed nitrogen — fertilizer, essentially — than all natural processes on land. Millions of tons of carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide, produced by burning fossil fuels, enter the ocean every day.

These pollutants feed excessive growth of harmful algae and bacteria.

At the same time, overfishing and destruction of wetlands have diminished the competing sea life and natural buffers that once held the microbes and weeds in check.

The consequences are evident worldwide.

I feel like I should have heard some of these stories earlier:

Off the coast of Sweden each summer, blooms of cyanobacteria turn the Baltic Sea into a stinking, yellow-brown slush that locals call “rhubarb soup.” Dead fish bob in the surf. If people get too close, their eyes burn and they have trouble breathing.

On the southern coast of Maui in the Hawaiian Islands, high tide leaves piles of green-brown algae that smell so foul condominium owners have hired a tractor driver to scrape them off the beach every morning.

On Florida’s Gulf Coast, residents complain that harmful algae blooms have become bigger, more frequent and longer-lasting. Toxins from these red tides have killed hundreds of sea mammals and caused emergency rooms to fill up with coastal residents suffering respiratory distress.

North of Venice, Italy, a sticky mixture of algae and bacteria collects on the Adriatic Sea in spring and summer. This white mucus washes ashore, fouling beaches, or congeals into submerged blobs, some bigger than a person.

Along the Spanish coast, jellyfish swarm so thick that nets are strung to protect swimmers from their sting.

First Ache

Monday, February 11th, 2008

In First Ache, Annie Murphy Paul discusses infants and pain:

Twenty-five years ago, when Kanwaljeet Anand was a medical resident in a neonatal intensive care unit, his tiny patients, many of them preterm infants, were often wheeled out of the ward and into an operating room. He soon learned what to expect on their return. The babies came back in terrible shape: their skin was gray, their breathing shallow, their pulses weak. Anand spent hours stabilizing their vital signs, increasing their oxygen supply and administering insulin to balance their blood sugar.

“What’s going on in there to make these babies so stressed?” Anand wondered. Breaking with hospital practice, he wrangled permission to follow his patients into the O.R. “That’s when I discovered that the babies were not getting anesthesia,” he recalled recently.

Fortunately, Anand was able to approach the whole thing scientifically:

In a series of clinical trials, he demonstrated that operations performed under minimal or no anesthesia produced a “massive stress response” in newborn babies, releasing a flood of fight-or-flight hormones like adrenaline and cortisol. Potent anesthesia, he found, could significantly reduce this reaction. Babies who were put under during an operation had lower stress-hormone levels, more stable breathing and blood-sugar readings and fewer postoperative complications. Anesthesia even made them more likely to survive. Anand showed that when pain relief was provided during and after heart operations on newborns, the mortality rate dropped from around 25 percent to less than 10 percent.

Britain’s benefits generation

Sunday, February 10th, 2008

State handouts are now a way of life for six million Britons:

Six million Britons are living in homes where no one has a job and “benefits are a way of life”, a report by MPs revealed yesterday.

And they cost the taxpayer nearly £13 billion a year in state handouts.

This army of families on benefit — nearly one in six of all households in the country — has been untouched by a decade of Labour’s attempts to get them into work, said the Public Accounts Committee.

Four out of five of these homes have no one who is even looking for a job.

Wow.

You Are What You Spend

Sunday, February 10th, 2008



When it comes to being rich or poor, You Are What You Spend:

It’s true that the share of national income going to the richest 20 percent of households rose from 43.6 percent in 1975 to 49.6 percent in 2006, the most recent year for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics has complete data. Meanwhile, families in the lowest fifth saw their piece of the pie fall from 4.3 percent to 3.3 percent.

Income statistics, however, don’t tell the whole story of Americans’ living standards. Looking at a far more direct measure of American families’ economic status — household consumption — indicates that the gap between rich and poor is far less than most assume, and that the abstract, income-based way in which we measure the so-called poverty rate no longer applies to our society.

The top fifth of American households earned an average of $149,963 a year in 2006. As shown in the first accompanying chart, they spent $69,863 on food, clothing, shelter, utilities, transportation, health care and other categories of consumption. The rest of their income went largely to taxes and savings.

The bottom fifth earned just $9,974, but spent nearly twice that — an average of $18,153 a year. How is that possible? A look at the far right-hand column of the consumption chart, labeled “financial flows,” shows why: those lower-income families have access to various sources of spending money that doesn’t fall under taxable income. These sources include portions of sales of property like homes and cars and securities that are not subject to capital gains taxes, insurance policies redeemed, or the drawing down of bank accounts. While some of these families are mired in poverty, many (the exact proportion is unclear) are headed by retirees and those temporarily between jobs, and thus their low income total doesn’t accurately reflect their long-term financial status.

So, bearing this in mind, if we compare the incomes of the top and bottom fifths, we see a ratio of 15 to 1. If we turn to consumption, the gap declines to around 4 to 1. A similar narrowing takes place throughout all levels of income distribution. The middle 20 percent of families had incomes more than four times the bottom fifth. Yet their edge in consumption fell to about 2 to 1.

Let’s take the adjustments one step further. Richer households are larger — an average of 3.1 people in the top fifth, compared with 2.5 people in the middle fifth and 1.7 in the bottom fifth. If we look at consumption per person, the difference between the richest and poorest households falls to just 2.1 to 1. The average person in the middle fifth consumes just 29 percent more than someone living in a bottom-fifth household.

Kissing cousins, missing children

Saturday, February 9th, 2008

In Kissing cousins, missing children, The Economist notes that a wider choice of mates reduces people’s reproductive output, and that may explain why families in rich countries are smaller than those in poor ones:

One of the biggest paradoxes in human biology is that as societies grow richer, people have fewer children. In most species, such an increase in available resources leads in the opposite reproductive direction. What makes the demographic transition, as this phenomenon is known, even more paradoxical is that in less developed times and places, the rich do not have smaller families than the poor.

Most explanations of the demographic transition are social. One school of thought emphasises reduced child mortality, suggesting this means that fewer “spares” need be generated to be sure that some children reach adulthood. Another points out that elderly people in rich countries do not depend on their children to look after them. A third suggests that as people are presented with more choices about how to spend their resources, they more often choose to consume things and experiences other than the joys and tribulations of parenthood. A fourth, somewhat more biological, posits that lavishing time and money on a few children, rather than spreading it around amongst many, produces adults who do better in the next-generation reproductive stakes. None of these ideas, though, is really satisfactory.

Now yet another explanation has been added to the pot. This is that the mixing-up of people caused by the urbanisation which normally accompanies development is, itself, partly responsible. That is because it breaks up optimal mating patterns. The demographic transition is thus, in part, a pure accident.

The science:

The study’s principal finding is that the most fecund marriages are between distant cousins. Using Iceland’s genealogical records, which allow the degree of relatedness between husband and wife to be calculated with great precision, Dr Helgason showed the optimum degree of outbreeding (measured in terms of the number of children and grandchildren produced) lay somewhere between cousins of the third and fourth degrees.

Probably, the reason is that marriages between close relatives risk inbreeding depression (caused by individuals receiving two copies of broken genes from the same ancestor, but by different paths — one maternal and the other paternal). Outbreeding means this is unlikely to happen, and at least one functional copy of each gene will be received. But outbreed too far and other difficulties arise as genetic incompatibilities between the parents make reproduction harder. (A well-known example is the case of rhesus blood groups, when the mother’s immune system may reject a fetus because of its father’s genes.)

The optimal degree of outbreeding remained the same in every 25-year generation since 1800, although the overall number of children from marriages of every degree of relatedness did drop gradually over time — an observation that accounts for part of Iceland’s demographic transition, and which probably has a social explanation. However, the level of outbreeding in Iceland has also increased markedly over that period, and Dr Helgason’s findings suggest that this, too, drives down average family size measured over the whole population by reducing the number of third and fourth cousin marriages.

Scientific American also ran a story on the study — under the questionable title, When Incest Is Best: Kissing Cousins Have More Kin.

A Real Stimulus Plan

Saturday, February 9th, 2008

Alex Tabarrok offers up A Real Stimulus Plan:

As you know, I’m not enthusiastic about a fiscal stimulus plan. What we need is a stimulus plan that does not increasing the budget deficit or waste taxpayer funds but that does increase the incentive to produce output. So what would I do? Here’s a new idea.

The IRS knows how much income that each taxpayer reported last year. So let’s cut everyone’s marginal tax rate based on last year’s income. In other words, suppose that last year Joe earned $66,520 which puts him in a 25% tax bracket. Joe’s tax schedule this year will be exactly the same as last year except for every dollar earned above $66,520 the tax rate drops to 15%. We do this for all taxpayers so that each taxpayer has their own schedule and for each taxpayer there is a decreasing marginal tax rate.

Note that this plan increases the incentive to work and it doesn’t increase the deficit. In fact, the Tabarrok plan increases tax revenues! The key is a marginal tax cut with a different margin for every taxpayer based upon last year’s return.

Six-Gill Shark

Saturday, February 9th, 2008

This rare sighting of a six-gill shark includes some amazing footage:

This six-gill shark (Hexanchus) was filmed during a submersible dive off the northeast coast of Molokai at a depth of 1000m (3280ft). The 2 red laser dots are 6 inches apart, resulting in a length of about 18 ft for the shark.

Great ecstatic live commentary by University of Hawaii Oceanography Professor Jeff Drazen!

Many thanks to Dr. Craig Smith (University of Hawaii) and Dr. Eric Vetter for permitting release of this footage which was obtained as part of their research data set.

Wary U.S. Olympians Will Bring Food to China

Saturday, February 9th, 2008

Wary U.S. Olympians Will Bring Food to China — but not because they’re afraid of getting sick from local victuals:

When a caterer working for the United States Olympic Committee went to a supermarket in China last year, he encountered a piece of chicken — half of a breast — that measured 14 inches. “Enough to feed a family of eight,” said Frank Puleo, a caterer from Staten Island who has traveled to China to handle food-related issues.

“We had it tested and it was so full of steroids that we never could have given it to athletes. They all would have tested positive.”

What a splendid excuse.

Nuclear fusion is coming, says noted VC

Friday, February 8th, 2008

Nuclear fusion is coming, says noted VC Wal van Lierop:

Chrysalix’s optimism is pinned on an angel investment the company made in General Fusion, a Canadian company that says it has found a way to hurdle many of the technical problems surrounding fusion. The company’s ultimate plan is to build small fusion reactors that can produce around 100 megawatts of power. The plants would cost around $50 million. That could allow the company to generate electricity at about 4 cents per kilowatt hour, making it competitive with conventional electricity.

The company uses a technique called Magnetized Target Fusion (MTF) model. In this scenario, an electric current is generated in a conductive cavity containing lithium and a plasma. The electric current produces a magnetic field and the cavity is collapsed, which results in a massive temperature spike.

The lithium breaks down into helium and tritium. Tritium, an unstable form of hydrogen, is separated and then mixed with deuterium, another form of hydrogen. The two fuse and make helium, a reaction that releases energy that can be harvested. So in short, lithium, a fairly inexpensive and plentiful metal, gets converted to helium in a reaction that generates lots of power and leaves only a harmless gas as a byproduct. MTF has an advantage over other fusion techniques in that the plasma only has to stay at thermonuclear temperatures (150 million degrees Celsius) for a microsecond for a reaction to occur, according to the General Fusion’s Web site. General Fusion has also filed for several patents.

Husband says Macon police used too much force

Friday, February 8th, 2008

This is terrifying. Husband says Macon police used too much force:

It was about 5 a.m.

Bridgett Donahue, 45, awoke at her Cumberland Drive residence. She needed to use the restroom. While washing her hands, she glanced up at the mirror and discovered a reflection that horrified her.

“My face was barely recognizable. My cheeks, my jaws, were all swelled up. My lips were all cracked. My tongue was swelling by the second. I looked down and my arms and legs were swelling too. They got to be about the size of balloons. I started to have difficulty breathing,” she said during an interview at her home Thursday.

Donahue, in the initial stages of recovery from a surgical procedure Monday, was having a severe allergic reaction to pain medication prescribed by her doctor.

“I screamed so loud everybody in the house woke up,” she said.

At 5 a.m., a 911 dispatcher at the Macon-Bibb Communications 911 Center received Donahue’s call. Donahue stated her address, “2528 Cumberland Drive.” She said her body was swelling up. She requested an ambulance.

The 911 dispatcher reported the call to the regional ambulance dispatch office at The Medical Center of Central Georgia – routine procedure for a medical emergency – and that dispatcher called for an ambulance to Donahue’s home.

Minutes later, Donahue’s mother, Cora Jordan of Albany, who was in Macon to help care for Donahue, called 911 again. She asked for an ambulance. Again, she reported Donahue’s swelling. And again, the 911 dispatcher transferred the call to an operator at the Medical Center.

A third 911 call was made minutes later.

Donahue’s daughter, Brande Jordan, 20, made one of those calls, unsatisfied that nearly 10 minutes later an ambulance had not arrived.

“All I know is my mother is screaming, crying and saying that she feels like she’s dying. The fact that no one had come to help didn’t make any sense to us,” she said.

It was during one of these calls that a dispatch operator at the Medical Center reported hearing yelling, possibly an argument, in the background at the Donahue home.

That dispatcher assumed that a domestic violence situation was occurring at the home and summoned police officers to the scene.

That dispatcher assumed that a domestic violence situation was occurring at the home and summoned police officers to the scene. You can imagine how that plays out.