NASA designs nuclear asteroid deflector

Monday, August 13th, 2007

Since I just read Lucifer’s Hammer a few weeks ago, I suppose I should be attuned to news like this — NASA designs nuclear asteroid deflector:

NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center has designed a nuclear-warhead-carrying spacecraft, that would be boosted by the US agency’s proposed Ares V cargo launch vehicle, to deflect asteroids.

The Ares V launch vehicle is scheduled to first fly in 2018. It would launch 130 tons to LEO.
[...]
The 8.9m (29ft)-long “Cradle” spacecraft would carry six 1,500kg (3,300lb) missile-like interceptor vehicles that would carry one 1.2MT B83 nuclear warhead each, with a total mass of 11,035kg.

The Facebook Generation Gap

Monday, August 13th, 2007

In The Facebook Generation Gap, Arnold Kling argues that there has been a tension between a desire for an open, anonymous online experience, a Wild Jungle, and a desire for a controlled, less chaotic experience, a Walled Garden:

If Facebook — or any other social network — can attract a desirable community while keeping out the crass minority, then it will have achieved an important objective for a Walled Garden. On the other hand, if as Facebook opens up to broader membership all of the problems of the Wild Jungle assert themselves, then the project will probably stall out and go into a nosedive.

AOL and MySpace both managed to have the worst of both worlds.

Kling argues that binary friend-not friend decisions are not finely grained enough for adult users of a social network:

In order to work for adults, Facebook would have to allow much more refined classification. For example, Facebook gives its users news updates from their friends. In school, this may work just fine. A student may be quite interested in the social ups and downs of her chums, and she may have plenty of time to scroll through all the little updates. As an adult, I have less time and more particular interests.

Concerning my friends, I cannot make a binary statement that says either “Yes, I am interested in any news that Facebook might have about you,” or “No I have no interest in any update from you.” Instead, I would want to classify friends in different ways.

For example, I do not want to follow the social activities of my former students, but I would like to hear about a new job or a new school that they are attending. With some out-of-town friends, I might want to get together serendipitously if we are going to be in the same city, so I would like to get updates of their travel plans. With other friends, I do not care.

With some friends, I would like to get ideas for things to try. But I want to differentiate. I might like a friend’s book recommendations, but I might not want her new recipes.

David Weinberger’s thesis is that these different notions of friendship are necessarily difficult to specify as rules, so that neither Facebook not any other social networking service is going to be able to offer a satisfying scheme. No doubt he is correct in the sense that no mechanism is going to be perfect, but I think that some better approaches may emerge on Facebook as people experiment with the site’s group-formation and application-development features.

As students get older, they will find that their tolerance for a high noise-to-signal ratio declines, even as their criteria for distinguishing signal from noise become more varied. If Facebook does not evolve to meet these changing characteristics of its user base, it will probably join the long roster of social networking sites that captured the imagination of a group for a few years, but then faded.

Six Strokes of Genius

Monday, August 13th, 2007

I’ve noted Bruce Crower’s six-stroke engine before. Now Popular Science is lauding his Six Strokes of Genius:

A typical engine wastes three quarters of its energy as heat. Crower’s prototype, the single-cylinder diesel eight-horsepower Steam-o-Lene engine, uses that heat to make steam and recapture some of the lost energy. It runs like a conventional four-stroke combustion engine through each of the typical up-and-down movements of the piston (intake, compression, power or combustion, exhaust). But just as the engine finishes its fourth stroke, water squirts into the cylinder, hitting surfaces as hot as 1,500°F. The water immediately evaporates into steam, generating a 1,600-fold expansion in volume and driving the piston down to create an additional power stroke. The upward sixth stroke exhausts the steam to a condenser, where it is recycled into injection water.

Crower calculates that the Steam-o-Lene boosts the work it gets from a gallon of gas by 40 percent over conventional engines. Diesels, which are already more efficient, might get another 5 percent. And his engine does it with hardware that already exists, so there’s no waiting for technologies to mature, as with electric cars or fuel cells.

Blossoming brains

Monday, August 13th, 2007

The Economist looks at Blossoming brains:

By about the age of six, the human brain is as big as it is ever going to be. That may surprise most grown-ups, who notice that children do not display the mental agility of adults (even though many fancy their own little angels are geniuses). Children can remember facts but are less good at recalling the context in which those facts are relevant. And they are easily swayed from long-term goals. Even when youngsters try their hardest they cannot wait 15 minutes for two biscuits if they can scoff one now instead. But as people grow, their brains change. Before full volume is attained, the pruning starts. Grey matter gets picked away at different rates in different parts of the organ. Brain cells form white matter as their arms become covered in fatty sheaths that, like the plastic insulation around a metal wire, stop electrical signals leaking out as they zip along the nerve cells. As the grey matter diminishes, the white matter steadily increases. Which is why the brain can mature from an organ of overwhelmingly short-range connections into one with many long-distance links, as Bradley Schlaggar and his colleagues at Washington University, in St Louis, have found.

Dr Schlaggar likes to create diagrams of brain function using a technique called graph theory that is used, among other things, to analyse demand on power grids and the structure of the Internet. He asks volunteers to lie in brain scanners and to think about whatever they wish. Then he tries to identify which parts of the brain are simultaneously active — or almost so. Where activity exceeds certain statistical thresholds, he plots a line between those bits of the brain on his diagrams.

This approach has led Dr Schlaggar to suggest why it is that adults can better resist impulses that derail long-term goals in children. His work is based on an idea by his colleague Steven Petersen, who recently developed the hypothesis that two networks, rather than two areas of the brain (as the mainstream theory has it), keep the adult mind concentrated on long-term achievement.

Dr Petersen and his colleagues identified 39 regions of the brain that were active when university students applied themselves to ten different tasks, each with varying levels of surprise built in. Whether the students were listening to repetitive sounds and trying to predict when the next tone would come, or pushing the correct button if pairs of words were matched or mismatched in their meanings, some consistent synchronisation emerged. Seven of the 39 regions looked busy when the brain was pursuing a successful strategy and maintaining a consistent effort. Eleven other parts chipped in when that strategy slipped up and some innovation was needed for the student to complete the task. Dr Petersen postulated that the first seven regions form one network, which he calls the “cingulo-opercular network”, and the second 11 form another, the “frontoparietal network”.

Dr Schlaggar next wondered how the connections within these two networks might develop. So he turned to a second group, made up of children and teenagers, and asked them to think about whatever they liked while he scanned the blood flow inside the same 39 regions of their brains and calculated which parts were acting in unison.

What he found came as a shock. In the 49 children, aged seven to nine, the two networks were always bound into a single web; in the 43 adolescents, some of those connections had been undone; and in his 47 adult volunteers, aged over 21, the brain regions fired as two distinct networks. Moreover, the web of activity inside the children’s heads depicted the cingulo-opercular (sustaining) network as being clamped inside the frontoparietal (rapidly adapting) one, suggesting why it is that youngsters grab one biscuit now rather than wait for two later. Both studies were published recently in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Inside the Mind of the Inner Economist

Saturday, August 11th, 2007

Nick Gillespie of Reason looks Inside the Mind of the Inner Economist, Tyler Cowen:

The 45-year-old George Mason University economics professor has a new book out that mixes self-help with hardcore economic thinking. Discover Your Inner Economist: Use Incentives to Fall in Love, Survive Your Next Meeting, and Motivate Your Dentist is rightly drawing rave reviews for its mix of high-end theory and practical advice. New York magazine recently dubbed Cowen, who co-runs the popular Marginal Revolution blog, a “cult hero,” and The Washington Post just wrote up Cowen’s advice on finding memorable ethnic food on the cheap.

The downside of diversity

Friday, August 10th, 2007

Harvard political scientist Robert Putnam, famous for Bowling Alone, was displeased to find the downside of diversity:

The results of his new study come from a survey Putnam directed among residents in 41 US communities, including Boston. Residents were sorted into the four principal categories used by the US Census: black, white, Hispanic, and Asian. They were asked how much they trusted their neighbors and those of each racial category, and questioned about a long list of civic attitudes and practices, including their views on local government, their involvement in community projects, and their friendships. What emerged in more diverse communities was a bleak picture of civic desolation, affecting everything from political engagement to the state of social ties.
[...]
But even after statistically taking [all other factors] into account, the connection remained strong: Higher diversity meant lower social capital. In his findings, Putnam writes that those in more diverse communities tend to “distrust their neighbors, regardless of the color of their skin, to withdraw even from close friends, to expect the worst from their community and its leaders, to volunteer less, give less to charity and work on community projects less often, to register to vote less, to agitate for social reform more but have less faith that they can actually make a difference, and to huddle unhappily in front of the television.”

“People living in ethnically diverse settings appear to ‘hunker down’ — that is, to pull in like a turtle,” Putnam writes.

In documenting that hunkering down, Putnam challenged the two dominant schools of thought on ethnic and racial diversity, the “contact” theory and the “conflict” theory. Under the contact theory, more time spent with those of other backgrounds leads to greater understanding and harmony between groups. Under the conflict theory, that proximity produces tension and discord.

Putnam’s findings reject both theories. In more diverse communities, he says, there were neither great bonds formed across group lines nor heightened ethnic tensions, but a general civic malaise. And in perhaps the most surprising result of all, levels of trust were not only lower between groups in more diverse settings, but even among members of the same group.

“Diversity, at least in the short run,” he writes, “seems to bring out the turtle in all of us.”

Running Out of Resources?

Thursday, August 9th, 2007

Are we in danger of Running Out of Resources? Here is Pete Geddes’s response:

I’m often asked about our consumption of natural resources, e.g., oil, iron, and copper. Since these resources are finite and population continues to grow, aren’t we in danger of running out? My short answer is no, we’ll never run out of anything that trades in the marketplace. But, we should be concerned about running out of “resources” that have no price and no owner, e.g., wild things and the ecosystems upon which they depend.

A Farewell to Alms

Thursday, August 9th, 2007

Nicholas Wade reviews Gregory Clark’s A Farewell to Alms for the New York Times:

Gregory Clark, an economic historian at the University of California, Davis, believes that the Industrial Revolution — the surge in economic growth that occurred first in England around 1800 — occurred because of a change in the nature of the human population. The change was one in which people gradually developed the strange new behaviors required to make a modern economy work. The middle-class values of nonviolence, literacy, long working hours and a willingness to save emerged only recently in human history, Dr. Clark argues.

I’m surprised this hypothesis was “allowed”:

The basis of Dr. Clark’s work is his recovery of data from which he can reconstruct many features of the English economy from 1200 to 1800. From this data, he shows, far more clearly than has been possible before, that the economy was locked in a Malthusian trap — each time new technology increased the efficiency of production a little, the population grew, the extra mouths ate up the surplus, and average income fell back to its former level.

This income was pitifully low in terms of the amount of wheat it could buy. By 1790, the average person’s consumption in England was still just 2,322 calories a day, with the poor eating a mere 1,508. Living hunter-gatherer societies enjoy diets of 2,300 calories or more.

“Primitive man ate well compared with one of the richest societies in the world in 1800,” Dr. Clark observes.

The tendency of population to grow faster than the food supply, keeping most people at the edge of starvation, was described by Thomas Malthus in a 1798 book, “An Essay on the Principle of Population.” This Malthusian trap, Dr. Clark’s data show, governed the English economy from 1200 until the Industrial Revolution and has in his view probably constrained humankind throughout its existence. The only respite was during disasters like the Black Death, when population plummeted, and for several generations the survivors had more to eat.

Malthus’s book is well known because it gave Darwin the idea of natural selection. Reading of the struggle for existence that Malthus predicted, Darwin wrote in his autobiography, “It at once struck me that under these circumstances favourable variations would tend to be preserved, and unfavourable ones to be destroyed. … Here then I had at last got a theory by which to work.”

Given that the English economy operated under Malthusian constraints, might it not have responded in some way to the forces of natural selection that Darwin had divined would flourish in such conditions? Dr. Clark started to wonder whether natural selection had indeed changed the nature of the population in some way and, if so, whether this might be the missing explanation for the Industrial Revolution.
[...]
Generation after generation, the rich had more surviving children than the poor, his research showed. That meant there must have been constant downward social mobility as the poor failed to reproduce themselves and the progeny of the rich took over their occupations. “The modern population of the English is largely descended from the economic upper classes of the Middle Ages,” he concluded.

As the progeny of the rich pervaded all levels of society, Dr. Clark considered, the behaviors that made for wealth could have spread with them. He has documented that several aspects of what might now be called middle-class values changed significantly from the days of hunter gatherer societies to 1800. Work hours increased, literacy and numeracy rose, and the level of interpersonal violence dropped.

Another significant change in behavior, Dr. Clark argues, was an increase in people’s preference for saving over instant consumption, which he sees reflected in the steady decline in interest rates from 1200 to 1800.

“Thrift, prudence, negotiation and hard work were becoming values for communities that previously had been spendthrift, impulsive, violent and leisure loving,” Dr. Clark writes.

Around 1790, a steady upward trend in production efficiency first emerges in the English economy. It was this significant acceleration in the rate of productivity growth that at last made possible England’s escape from the Malthusian trap and the emergence of the Industrial Revolution.

Masdar, the world’s first carbon-free city

Thursday, August 9th, 2007

Masdar, the world’s first carbon-free city is still on the drawing board, but construction is expected to begin in January — in the emirate of Abu Dhabi:

The 3.7-square-mile city, called Masdar, will cut its electricity bill by harnessing wind, solar, and geothermal energy, while a total ban on cars within city walls should reduce the long-term health costs associated with smog.

The Universal Distraction

Thursday, August 9th, 2007

Arnold Kling calls the focus on universal healthcare coverage The Universal Distraction and opens his piece with this quote from John Graham of the Pacific Research Institute:

Nobody is talking about a free-market approach in health care. The spectrum today is between fascism and Communism.

Kling explains:

In this context, the conservative approach involves mandatory health insurance. The liberal approach involves expanding government coverage. Hence, it is either fascism or Communism.

The main proponents of “universal coverage” want to throw more money at the current health care system, which strikes me as unwise. I believe that the “universal coverage” mantra is dysfunctional for the same reason that “more money for public schools” is a dysfunctional mantra for education. When your current approach is digging you into a hole, the sensible thing to do is not to dig faster. It is to stop digging.

Utilities to Drive Hybrid Repair Trucks

Thursday, August 9th, 2007

When I first read that PG&E was going to try out hybrid repair trucks, I wasn’t sure where the big benefit would come from, since repair trucks don’t make lots of short start-and-stop trips like a garbage truck or mail van:

This morning a 16-ton “bucket truck” silently rolled up to a plaza in front of PG&E’s San Francisco headquarters. The International truck can run up to 35 miles an hour on its electric drive train made by Eaton, according to Efrain Ornelas, PG&E senior program manager for clean air transportation. Batteries also power the bucket that lifts workers up to power lines. In a conventional bucket truck that equipment is powered by the vehicle’s diesel engine, which is left idling and spewing carbon while the repair work is being performed. “Normally when one of these trucks is working in a neighborhood it’s so loud you can’t hear yourself talk,” said Ornelas as the bucket quietly lifted a technician into the air.

According to PG&E, the hybrid bucket truck will slash fuel consumption up to 60 percent, saving up to $5,500 a year in diesel costs. The year-long trial will help the truck’s manufacturer tweak the vehicle’s final design. Ornelas said the electric lift can operate for about two hours on battery power, which should let PG&E customers get some sleep when trucks are dispatched in the dead of night to fix downed power lines.

Animal Babies at Longleat Safari Park

Wednesday, August 8th, 2007

Today’s dose of cute comes from these Animal Babies at Longleat Safari Park in the UK.

Reservoir Logs

Wednesday, August 8th, 2007

When I saw video of a feller-buncher a few weeks ago, it struck me as an over-the-top way to harvest trees, like something out of Dr. Seuss’s Lorax.

At that time, I hadn’t yet read Wired‘s Reservoir Logs:

This unusual harvesting method is made possible by a submersible that can probe the deepest reservoirs for under-water trees to cut and deliver to the surface. It was developed by Chris Godsall, the 38-year-old founder and CEO of Triton Logging. The company is based near Victoria, but the principal underwater logging operation is at Ootsa Lake, almost 750 miles to the north. The lake was formed in 1954, when Alcan, the world’s second-largest aluminum producer, built a hydroelectric dam here to power its smelter. The water behind the dam flooded millions of lodgepole pine, spruce, Douglas fir, and hemlock trees, leaving some $1.2 billion worth of timber preserved in a kind of suspended animation. In the cold, dark, oxygen-poor water, tree wood won’t decay for thousands of years. And Ootsa is one of 45,000 spots around the globe where dams have inundated valleys and submerged vast forests. By some estimates, there is $50 billion worth of marketable timber at the bottom of these man-made lakes. Godsall is quick to point out that he has the only technology able to retrieve it.


To gather up a few logs, it might seem like lunacy to deploy the same kind of sophisticated and pricey ROVs used to explore the Titanic or investigate 9,000-foot-deep geothermal vents along the mid-Atlantic seafloor. But do the math and Godsall’s method starts to make good financial sense. Operated by just one person, a so-called feller buncher — the fastest and cheapest way to harvest timber on land — can cut at least 500 trees a day. But then it takes an additional three-member crew up to three weeks to trim and load the trees for transport. A single Sawfish is more efficient. It may clear only 250 trees in an eight-hour shift with four crew members, but there’s no need to skid the logs down a hillside and truck them to a mill. Instead, a barge delivers the trees to the mill faster and more cheaply, and because they’ve been submerged they’re generally already stripped of foliage and bark. A Sawfish, including the control room, tool shop, and power generator, costs $800,000 to $1 million, depending on the gadgetry packed into the ROV. That’s significantly less than the onetime equipment cost of roughly $1.5 million needed to run a comparable feller buncher operation. Add up all the numbers and, while conventional harvesting costs about $50 per cubic meter of wood, Peter Keyes, an executive at a global timber wholesaler and marketer, estimates Godsall’s cost at closer to $40. “Sure, there are big R&D costs to pay down,” Keyes says. “But the technology has given Godsall access to all these trees as if they were on land. It’s like finding a new penny.”

In similar news, an Australian miner has started a Race to the Bottom — of the ocean:

More than 5,000 feet under the sea, off the coast of Papua New Guinea, a small white crab flexes its claw. It has paused halfway up a rock outcropping and is approaching a tantalizing colony of snails when a flash of light illuminates the seabed. A wondrous, prickly landscape of spires appears and stretches off into the blackness. The crab taps its feet on the rock, takes a tentative step toward the snails, and is suddenly confronted by a 6-ton, 10-foot-tall, remotely operated robotic drilling machine.

The contraption is fitted with a series of circular, diamond-infused pulverizers, which it lowers onto a nearby rock surface. The pulverizers begin to spin, crushing the rock into gravel. A bloom of silt rises up over the seabed, enveloping the crab in a cloud.
[...]
The crab is getting more than its share of attention. As it’s about to make its tentative bid for the snails, a series of bold yellow numbers pop up on the screen, delineating the mineral content of the rock it’s perched on: 12.2 percent copper, 4.2 percent zinc, and a substantial amount of silver and gold. A crowd gathers around the screen, including a man in a cowboy hat and jeans. He seems impressed but skeptical. Those numbers are just too high.

“There’s no mistake, if that’s what you’re thinking,” says David Heydon, looking dapper in pinstripe pants and a crisp white shirt. Heydon is a veteran Australian prospector and onetime dotcom entrepreneur. He returned to the mining industry five years ago to become CEO of Nautilus Minerals, a new breed of mining company with a head start on what may turn out to be the largest gold rush the world has ever seen. It is Heydon’s company that filmed the crab and retrieved the first commercial ore samples from the ocean floor. “The gold is just lying there on the seabed,” he tells the group clustered around the Nautilus booth. He has a breezy Aussie accent and, at 50, a light dusting of gray in his hair. “And let me tell you, we haven’t seen these types of mineral deposits since the beginning of modern mining.”

Incapacitating Flashlight

Wednesday, August 8th, 2007

MIT’s Technology Review looks at — but not directly into — the Department of Homeland Security’s new Incapacitating Flashlight:

The flashlight, which is being developed for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), uses a range finder to measure the distance to the target’s eyes so that it can adjust the energy of the light to a level that won’t cause permanent damage. Then it rapidly shoots out pulses of light from an array of ultrabright light emitting diodes (LEDs).

The flashes incapacitate a person in two different ways, says Robert Lieberman, CEO of Intelligent Optical Systems, based in Torrance, CA, which is making the device. The flashes temporarily blind a person, as any bright light would, and the light pulses, which quickly change both in color and duration, also cause what Lieberman calls psychophysical effects. These effects, whose effectiveness depends on the person, range from disorientation to vertigo to nausea, and they wear off in a few minutes.

It’s not clear why the changing light pulses cause this effect, even though the effect has been well documented, Lieberman says. Helicopter pilots, for example, have been known to crash because they get disoriented by the choppy flashes of sunlight coming through the chopper’s spinning blades.

The Equities of Private Equity

Wednesday, August 8th, 2007

James DeLong examines The Equities of Private Equity:

Whereas a generation ago most of the value of an enterprise was accounted for by its hard assets, such as factories or inventory, now about 75% of it lies in intangibles – patents, copyrights, staff creativity, trade secrets, know-how, reputation, brand names, customer relationships, and the ability to manage them all.

It is a truism of the world that the scarcest resource commands an outsize share of the returns, because those who control it can force the holders of the more common resources to bid against each other.

If finance capital is scarce, the financiers rule. But in a world in which finance capital is plentiful and creative capital less so, the financiers get to bid for the privilege of going into business with the creatives, and sharing the returns from their intangible capital.

This shift in power is resisted because it does not accord with the 19th century model of the corporation, in which the financiers are the principals and all others are their subordinates and agents, and because the finance capitalists are not too keen on the shift. In fact, much of the work of the government that is undermining the efficiency of the public markets can be viewed as an effort to retard this change, to maintain the dominance of the finance capital over creative capital.

The private equity firms’ fat pay-offs and occasional ostentation on a Veblenian scale make them good targets, but their real sin is to be leaders and symbols of the shift. They earn their returns by identifying the opportunities for superior deployment of capital and by revamping the internal structure of the companies they take over so as to empower and reward the creativity of the managers and employees, collecting a handling fee along the way for their own intellectual contributions.