How many children should you have?

Saturday, April 21st, 2007

Tyler Cowen cites some recent research that answers the question, How many children should you have?:

In comparing identical twins, Kohler found that mothers with one child are about 20 percent happier than their childless counterparts; and while fathers’ happiness gains are smaller, men enjoy an almost 75 percent larger happiness boost from a firstborn son than from a firstborn daughter. The first child’s sex doesn’t matter to mothers, perhaps because women are better than men at enjoying the company of both girls and boys, Kohler speculates.

Interestingly, second and third children don’t add to parents’ happiness at all. In fact, these additional children seem to make mothers less happy than mothers with only one child — though still happier than women with no children.

The Patriarchy at Work

Saturday, April 21st, 2007

Alex Tabarrok cites Does Science Promote Women? Evidence from Academia 1973-2001 on The Patriarchy at Work:

Many studies have shown that women are under-represented in tenured ranks in the sciences. We evaluate whether gender differences in the likelihood of obtaining a tenure track job, promotion to tenure, and promotion to full professor explain these facts using the 1973-2001 Survey of Doctorate Recipients. We find that women are less likely to take tenure track positions in science, but the gender gap is entirely explained by fertility decisions. We find that in science overall, there is no gender difference in promotion to tenure or full professor after controlling for demographic, family, employer and productivity covariates and that in many cases, there is no gender difference in promotion to tenure or full professor even without controlling for covariates. However, family characteristics have different impacts on women’s and men’s promotion probabilities. Single women do better at each stage than single men, although this might be due to selection. Children make it less likely that women in science will advance up the academic job ladder beyond their early post-doctorate years, while both marriage and children increase men’s likelihood of advancing.

(Alex’s blog-mate, Tyler, commented on an earlier version of the paper.)

Matrimony Has Its Benefits, and Divorce Has a Lot to Do With That

Saturday, April 21st, 2007

Tyler Cowen summarizes Justin Wolfers and Betsey Stevenson, whose research says that Matrimony Has Its Benefits, and Divorce Has a Lot to Do With That:

In the United States, the availability of divorce has increased with unilateral divorce, which allows either member of the couple to dissolve the union. The change has been associated with lower rates of female suicide and domestic violence, and fewer wives murdered by their husbands. Unilateral divorce shifts the bargaining power to the person who is getting less out of the marriage and thus is most likely to leave. The partner getting more from the marriage has to work harder to keep the other person around, which can be good for the marriage and good for the couple. In other words, unilateral divorce benefits victims and potential victims.

When unilateral divorce was adopted, divorce rates rose sharply in the two years that followed, reflecting a pent-up demand for divorce. But after 10 years had passed, the divorce rate went back to normal or in some cases, compared with states without unilateral divorce, it had fallen further.

In fact, the divorce rate for married couples peaked in the United States in 1979, when it was 22.8 per thousand married couples per year. Since then it has continued to decline, reaching 16.7 divorces per thousand married couples in 2005.

In Praise of His Competition

Saturday, April 21st, 2007

Bryan Caplan, who has a new book out, speaks in praise of his competition, Steve Landsburg. Landsburg’s new book bears the risqué-yet-Freakonomics-esque title, More Sex is Safer Sex, and its title essay demonstrates the power of model-building in an unusual problem domain:

Imagine a country where almost all women are monogamous, while all men demand two female partners per year. Under those circumstances, a few prostitutes end up servicing all the men. Before long, the prostitutes are infected; they pass the disease on to the men; the men bring it home to their monogamous wives. But if each of these monogamous wives were willing to take on one extramartial partner, the market for prostitution would die out, and the virus, unable to spread fast enough to maintain itself, might well die out along with it.

Boxing’s biggest fight

Saturday, April 21st, 2007

The BBC says that boxing’s biggest fight is with mixed martial arts (MMA), better known as ultimate fighting:

Boxing legend Barry McGuigan called it “dirty” and “undignified”, but statistics suggest it is safer than boxing.

Ultimate Fighting Championship is coming to Britain — and British boxing is rattled.

On Saturday, UFC lands at Manchester’s MEN Arena, and 16,000 people, including Wayne Rooney, Rio Ferdinand and Girls Aloud, will be there to welcome it.

Across the Atlantic, it’s already big news. UFC, the leading brand within the sport of mixed martial arts, outsold boxing on the box twice over in 2006 and has just finalised a deal with HBO, the traditional home of boxing in America.

UFC champions Randy Couture and Chuck Liddell are household names, which is more than you can say for Floyd Mayweather, arguably boxing’s biggest talent.

And it has even caught the imagination of the A-list, with a host of Hollywood stars — and Paris Hilton — regulars at UFC shows.

ThinkGeek Power Tie

Friday, April 20th, 2007

When it comes back in stock, I may need the ThinkGeek Power Tie:

100% silk ties with repeating silk power symbols woven into the ties themselves. Background of tie is black with silver/gray power symbols. Note: power symbols are actually woven into the tie and not screen printed so they are extremely durable. ThinkGeek simultaneously does and does not condone the use of ties.

The Horrible Truth about Super-Science

Thursday, April 19th, 2007

David Weigel of Reason interviews Jackson Publick, real name Christopher McCulloch, co-creator of Venture Bros., on The Horrible Truth about Super-Science:

The basic idea of The Venture Brothers was taking the world of Jonny Quest and jumping back into 30 years later, seeing how someone who grew up like Jonny — with that kind of space race enthusiasm and disregard for other cultures — would turn out. Dr. Venture is a boy genius who didn’t grow up to be what he should have been. Doc has really said it best: The beauty of failure is the beauty of human beings.

$78 million of red ink?

Wednesday, April 18th, 2007

$78 million of red ink? That’s how much money Sahara lost, according to some highly confidential documents that have come out:

  • “Sahara,” an action-adventure based on the bestselling novel by Clive Cussler, has lost about $105 million to date, according to a finance executive assigned to the movie. But records show the film losing $78.3 million based on Hollywood accounting methods that count projected revenue ($202.9 million in this case) over a 10-year period.
  • About 1,000 cast and crew members worked on “Sahara.” The highest-paid was McConaughey, who received an $8-million fee, or $615,385 for each week of filming, not including bonuses and other compensation. Cruz earned $1.6 million. Rainn Wilson, who since has raised his profile through roles in “Six Feet Under” and “The Office,” was paid $45,000 for 10 weeks of work.
  • “Courtesy payments,” “gratuities” and “local bribes” totaling $237,386 were passed out on locations in Morocco to expedite filming. A $40,688 payment to stop a river improvement project and $23,250 for “Political/Mayoral support” may have run afoul of U.S. law, experts say.
  • Ten screenwriters were paid $3.8 million in fees and bonuses — highlighting the increasingly common practice of hiring and firing numerous writers on big-budget features. David S. Ward, who won an Academy Award for “The Sting,” received $500,000.
  • The production firm owned by Denver billionaire Philip Anschutz got $20.4 million in government incentives to film and edit parts of “Sahara” in Europe.
  • Unlike most financial failures, “Sahara” performed reasonably well, ranking No. 1 after its opening weekend and generating $122 million in gross box-office sales. But the movie was saddled with exorbitant costs, including a $160-million production and $81.1 million in distribution expenses.

An interesting bit of legal trivia:

The Foreign Corrupt Practices Act prohibits U.S. companies from paying any foreign official to secure an “improper advantage” or influence a decision. The act permits small “grease” or facilitation payments for routine services such as the provision of visas, licenses and permits.

The “local bribes” probably would fall under the “grease” exemption because of the routine nature of the payments, said Alexandra Wrage, president of TRACE, an anti-bribery business association in Annapolis, Md.

Appalachian School of Law shooting

Wednesday, April 18th, 2007

The Appalachian School of Law shooting a few years back played out a bit differently from the Virginia Tech massacre:

On January 16, 2002, Peter Odighizuwa, 43, of Nigeria, who had recently flunked out of the Appalachian School of Law, arrived at the school. Odighizuwa first discussed his academic suspension with professor Dale Rubin, where it is reported that he told Rubin to pray for him. Odighizuwa then walked to the offices of Dean Anthony Sutin and Professor Thomas Blackwell, where Odighizuwa opened fire with a .380 ACP semi-automatic handgun. According to a county coroner, powder burns indicated that both people were shot at point blank range. Killed along with the two staff members was a student, Angela Denise Dales, age 33. Three other people were wounded.

When Odighizuwa exited the building where the shooting took place, he was approached by two students with personal firearms. At the first sound of gunfire, fellow students Tracy Bridges and Mikael Gross (an off-duty police officer), unbeknownst to the other, had run to their vehicles to grab their personal firearms (with Bridges pulling his .357 Magnum pistol from beneath the driver’s seat of his Chevy Tahoe). As Bridges later told the Richmond Times Dispatch, he was prepared to shoot to kill.

Bridges and Gross approached Odighizuwa from different angles, with Bridges yelling at Odighizuwa to drop his gun. Odighizuwa then dropped his firearm and was subdued by a third student, Ted Besen, who was unarmed. Once Odighizuwa was securely held down Gross went back to his vehicle and retrieved handcuffs to help hold Odighizuwa until police could arrive. Police reports noted there were two empty eight round magazines belonging to Odighizuwa’s handgun. It is unclear whether Odighizuwa ran out of ammunition or if there was still a round in the chamber at the time that he dropped his firearm.

Virginia Tech Killer’s Violent Writings

Tuesday, April 17th, 2007

If this one-act play is in fact one of the Virginia Tech Killer’s Violent Writings, he was (a) troubled and (b) a terrible writer:

The college student responsible for yesterday’s Virginia Tech slaughter was referred last year to counseling after professors became concerned about the violent nature of his writings, as evidenced in a one-act play obtained by The Smoking Gun. The play by Cho Seung-Hui, a 23-year-old English major, was submitted last year as part of a short story writing class. Entitled “Richard McBeef,” Cho’s bizarre play features a 13-year-old boy who accuses his stepfather of pedophilia and murdering his father. A copy of the killer’s play can be found below. The teenager talks of killing the older man and, at one point, the child’s mother brandishes a chain saw at the stepfather. The play ends with the man striking the child with “a deadly blow.”

Addendum: AOLNews appears to have two of his plays — although it is hard to imagine that they were produced by a senior English major.

The Depressive and the Psychopath

Tuesday, April 17th, 2007

A few years ago, five years after the Columbine killings, Dave Cullen described the killers, Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold, as The Depressive and the Psychopath.

I don’t know how much those diagnoses explained, but Cullen made another important point — Harris and Klebold planned on killing many, many more people than they did, using explosives that didn’t, in the end, go off:

The killers, in fact, laughed at petty school shooters. They bragged about dwarfing the carnage of the Oklahoma City bombing and originally scheduled their bloody performance for its anniversary. Klebold boasted on video about inflicting “the most deaths in U.S. history.” Columbine was intended not primarily as a shooting at all, but as a bombing on a massive scale. If they hadn’t been so bad at wiring the timers, the propane bombs they set in the cafeteria would have wiped out 600 people. After those bombs went off, they planned to gun down fleeing survivors. An explosive third act would follow, when their cars, packed with still more bombs, would rip through still more crowds, presumably of survivors, rescue workers, and reporters. The climax would be captured on live television. It wasn’t just “fame” they were after — Agent Fuselier bristles at that trivializing term — they were gunning for devastating infamy on the historical scale of an Attila the Hun. Their vision was to create a nightmare so devastating and apocalyptic that the entire world would shudder at their power.

Virginia Tech Killer’s Violent Writings

Tuesday, April 17th, 2007

If this one-act play is in fact one of the Virginia Tech Killer’s Violent Writings, he was (a) troubled and (b) a terrible writer:

The college student responsible for yesterday’s Virginia Tech slaughter was referred last year to counseling after professors became concerned about the violent nature of his writings, as evidenced in a one-act play obtained by The Smoking Gun. The play by Cho Seung-Hui, a 23-year-old English major, was submitted last year as part of a short story writing class. Entitled “Richard McBeef,” Cho’s bizarre play features a 13-year-old boy who accuses his stepfather of pedophilia and murdering his father. A copy of the killer’s play can be found below. The teenager talks of killing the older man and, at one point, the child’s mother brandishes a chain saw at the stepfather. The play ends with the man striking the child with “a deadly blow.”

Addendum: AOLNews appears to have two of his plays — although it is hard to imagine that they were produced by a senior English major.

Feeling Safe

Tuesday, April 17th, 2007

In Feeling Safe, Jesse Walker points out a grim irony by citing the Roanoke Times from January 31, 2006:

A bill that would have given college students and employees the right to carry handguns on campus died with nary a shot being fired in the General Assembly….

Virginia Tech spokesman Larry Hincker was happy to hear the bill was defeated. “I’m sure the university community is appreciative of the General Assembly’s actions because this will help parents, students, faculty and visitors feel safe on our campus.”

Charles Whitman and Future Shock

Tuesday, April 17th, 2007

This past weekend, while chatting at a party, I happened to mention the famous case of the Austin sniper, Charles Whitman, and how, since he was shooting at folks in Texas in the 1960s, the Texans all went to their trucks and got their own rifles to shoot back. Don’t mess with Texas!

The story’s a bit deeper than that though, as Charles Whitman and Futureshock, 40 Years Later (which I cited last year) points out:

What struck me as most fascinating were the accounts from several sources of how the police dealt with the lack of covering fire that a SWAT team would provide today. They just went to citizens in the area and asked them to bring their rifles and shoot at the tower, and they all went to their pickups, got their deer rifles and did what they could to help. Their covering fire kept Whitman down and limited him to shooting through a drain opening, pretty much stopping the killing and giving officers the opportunity to get into the building. The officers also deputized one of the citizens to go with them into the tower to give them a bit more firepower, although he didn’t end up facing Whitman.

What a different world. First, it was taken for granted that a bunch of people in the area would be carrying powerful rifles openly in their trucks in the middle of the state’s capitol city. What’s more, the police felt no hesitation in asking those citizens to help out in a dangerous situation and the citizens were eager to do their part. None of this was seen as out of the ordinary or unexpected at the time. Everyone had guns openly in public and they were willing to take responsibility and use them when asked. Perhaps most remarkably, the police saw armed citizens as an asset rather than as a threat.

(Emphasis mine.)

Naturally one has to wonder about the situation at Virginia Tech.

Ensuring that Victims are Unarmed

Tuesday, April 17th, 2007

Before the recent Virginia Tech massacre, Art De Vany cited a John Lott piece arguing that gun-free zones ensure that victims are unarmed:

Gun free zones may be well intentioned, but good intentions that is not enough. It is an understandable desire to ban guns. After all, if you ban guns from an area, people can’t get shot, right? But time after time when these public shootings occur, they disproportionately take place in gun free zones.

It is the law-abiding good citizens who would only use a gun for protection who obey these bans. Violating a gun free zone at a place such as a public university may mean expulsion or firing and arrest, real penalties for law-abiding citizens. But for someone intent on killing others, adding on these penalties for violating a gun free zone means little to someone who, if still alive, faces life in prison.

Unfortunately, instead of gun free zones ensuring safety for victims, ensuring that the victims are unarmed only makes things safer for attackers.