Everybody’s An Expert

Sunday, December 11th, 2005

Everbody’s An Expert notes that media experts don’t actually predict things better than non-experts:

No one is paying you for your gratuitous opinions about other people, but the experts are being paid, and Tetlock claims that the better known and more frequently quoted they are, the less reliable their guesses about the future are likely to be. The accuracy of an expert’s predictions actually has an inverse relationship to his or her self-confidence, renown, and, beyond a certain point, depth of knowledge. People who follow current events by reading the papers and newsmagazines regularly can guess what is likely to happen about as accurately as the specialists whom the papers quote. Our system of expertise is completely inside out: it rewards bad judgments over good ones.

Read the article.

Canned Truth

Sunday, December 11th, 2005

Canned Truth explains how the pineapple used to be “the ultimate in inaccessible luxury fruit”:

Meanwhile, the pineapple itself began to be used as an ornament at the dinner table. Especially prized were English pineapples, grown with absurd labours in a hothouse “pinery”, an accessory to a country estate which, says Beauman, “every self-respecting aristocrat” aspired to possess. Beauman calculates that once all the costs of a pinery are considered — a stock of costly pineapple plants and pots and a glasshouse to contain them, a 40-foot stove to heat the glasshouse, a garden boy to tend the stove full-time — the expense of a single English-raised pineapple in the second half of the eighteenth century was about ?80, or ?5,000 in today’s money. No wonder a single pineapple was often “made to last for some time, passed on from party to party until it began to rot so much it smelt out the whole household”. By Victorian times, one horticulturalist claimed he had heard of a “single pineapple going the round of west-end dinner parties for some weeks”. Beauman does not mention a similar assertion which I have come across elsewhere, that poorer middle-class families would even take to hiring pineapples for occasions when they wished to entertain, in order to appear grand, praying that no one would actually attempt to cut a slice.

Rebels Without a Clue

Friday, December 9th, 2005

Rebels Without a Clue looks at Nation of Rebels, a new book by Joseph Heath and Andrew Potter, men of the left with a certain conservative sensibility:

Above all, though, Heath and Potter are as dismissive of the modern Left’s worldview as P.J. O’Rourke is. “You can’t even organize a commune, much less an entire society, based upon the assumption that people will behave like saints,” they tell us. “Consumerism…always seems to be a critique of what other people buy…. [The] so-called critique of consumerism is just thinly veiled snobbery or, worse, Puritanism.” They sum up aptly the countercultural message of the film, American Beauty: “[It] is simply not possible to be a well-adjusted adult in our society…. The alternative [to perpetual adolescence] is to ‘sell out,’ to play by the rules, and thereby to become a neurotic, superficial conformist, incapable of experiencing true pleasure.” To which they respond: “The greatest weakness of countercultural thinking has always been its inability to produce a coherent vision of a free society, much less a practical political program for changing the one we live in.”

Raise Taxes on Savings? Tell Joe It Ain’t So!

Friday, December 9th, 2005

Martin Feldstein says, Raise Taxes on Savings? Tell Joe It Ain’t So!:

Keeping the low rates on the income from savings should now be the highest priority of tax reform. Eliminating the tax on such income would be even better.

Here’s why. A tax on interest, dividends and capital gains creates a major distortion in the timing of consumption, and also exacerbates the adverse effects of the income tax on all aspects of work effort and personal productivity. Such distortions create unnecessary economic waste that lowers our standard of living. The combination of a lower tax rate on the income from savings and a revenue-neutral rise in the tax on earnings can produce a higher net reward for additional work and productivity, as well as a reduction in the distortion between consuming now and in the future. That would reduce the economic damage caused by the tax system while collecting the same total revenue with the same distribution of the tax burden.

(Hat tip to Marginal Revolution.)

Russian Parkour

Friday, December 9th, 2005

I’ve seen some crazy parkour in my time, but this Russian Parkour video is pretty wild.

(It starts out slow, but it definitely gets going.)

The Farm Fox Experiment

Thursday, December 8th, 2005

Lyudmila N. Trut examines The Farm Fox Experiment — and many other examples of domestication:

Early in the process of domestication, Belyaev noted, most domestic animals had undergone the same basic morphological and physiological changes. Their bodies changed in size and proportions, leading to the appearance of dwarf and giant breeds. The normal pattern of coat color that had evolved as camouflage in the wild altered as well. Many domesticated animals are piebald, completely lacking pigmentation in specific body areas. Hair turned wavy or curly, as it has done in Astrakhan sheep, poodles, domestic donkeys, horses, pigs, goats and even laboratory mice and guinea pigs. Some animals’ hair also became longer (Angora type) or shorter (rex type).

Tails changed, too. Many breeds of dogs and pigs carry their tails curled up in a circle or semicircle. Some dogs, cats and sheep have short tails resulting from a decrease in the number of tail vertebrae. Ears became floppy. As Darwin noted in chapter 1 of On the Origin of Species, ‘not a single domestic animal can be named which has not in some country drooping ears’ — a feature not found in any wild animal except the elephant.

Another major evolutionary consequence of domestication is loss of the seasonal rhythm of reproduction. Most wild animals in middle latitudes are genetically programmed to mate once a year, during mating seasons cued by changes in daylight. Domestic animals at the same latitudes, however, now can mate and bear young more than once a year and in any season.

Belyaev believed that similarity in the patterns of these traits was the result of selection for amenability to domestication. Behavioral responses, he reasoned, are regulated by a fine balance between neurotransmitters and hormones at the level of the whole organism. The genes that control that balance occupy a high level in the hierarchical system of the genome. Even slight alterations in those regulatory genes can give rise to a wide network of changes in the developmental processes they govern. Thus, selecting animals for behavior may lead to other, far-reaching changes in the animals’ development. Because mammals from widely different taxonomic groups share similar regulatory mechanisms for hormones and neurochemistry, it is reasonable to believe that selecting them for similar behavior — tameness — should alter those mechanisms, and the developmental pathways they govern, in similar ways.

On foxes bred for tameness:

At seven or eight months, when the foxes reach sexual maturity, they are scored for tameness and assigned to one of three classes. The least domesticated foxes, those that flee from experimenters or bite when stroked or handled, are assigned to Class III. (Even Class III foxes are tamer than the calmest farm-bred foxes. Among other things, they allow themselves to be hand fed.) Foxes in Class II let themselves be petted and handled but show no emotionally friendly response to experimenters. Foxes in Class I are friendly toward experimenters, wagging their tails and whining. In the sixth generation bred for tameness we had to add an even higher-scoring category. Members of Class IE, the “domesticated elite,” are eager to establish human contact, whimpering to attract attention and sniffing and licking experimenters like dogs. They start displaying this kind of behavior before they are one month old. By the tenth generation, 18 percent of fox pups were elite; by the 20th, the figure had reached 35 percent. Today elite foxes make up 70 to 80 percent of our experimentally selected population.

Now, 40 years and 45,000 foxes after Belyaev began, our experiment has achieved an array of concrete results. The most obvious of them is a unique population of 100 foxes (at latest count), each of them the product of between 30 and 35 generations of selection. They are unusual animals, docile, eager to please and unmistakably domesticated. When tested in groups in an enclosure, pups compete for attention, snarling fiercely at one another as they seek the favor of their human handler. Over the years several of our domesticated foxes have escaped from the fur farm for days. All of them eventually returned. Probably they would have been unable to survive in the wild.

For an adorable photo of piebald fox kits, see my recent post.

If this suite’s a success, why is it so buggy?

Thursday, December 8th, 2005

Of OpenOffice, Andrew Brown asks, If this suite’s a success, why is it so buggy?:

Of all the myths that have grown up around open source software, perhaps the most pervasive is Eric Raymond’s aphorism that ‘Many eyes make bugs shallow’, suggesting that if lots of people can view a program’s source code, they will find and fix its errors more quickly than commercial products whose code is jealously guarded. The only problem with this is that it’s not true — certainly not in one of the flagship projects of open source, OpenOffice.

[...]

The myth of open source rests on two improbable assumptions. The first is that a significant proportion of users can fix bugs. That is true at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where the concept of open source was first formalised in the 1980s by Richard Stallman and others, and it is true in some of the geekier corners of the internet. But on programs intended for use by the non-programming public, it’s a very different story.

This is important because of the second crucial false assumption: that even if not all users can fix a bug, they can help find them. They can’t. Most users just think: “The computer isn’t doing what I want.”

[...]

More than 50,000 bugs have been reported. And how many have been fixed by open source’s uniquely efficient processes? According to the (public) bugs database, at last count, there were more than 6,000 unfixed bugs, and more than 5,000 feature requests. While the number of bugs discovered seems to rise with the number of users, the number of fixes doesn’t, and the number of fixers certainly doesn’t. Only about 500 people have signed the legalese that would enable them to submit code to the project; since you need to do this even to make changes to the website, that will translate to far fewer than 500 volunteers submitting real code. A reasonable guess would be 50, or even five.

Bluster and Satire: Stephen Colbert’s ‘Report’

Thursday, December 8th, 2005

NPR interviews Stephen Colbert about his Colbert Report. Some background on the man:

Colbert began his comedy career with Second City in Chicago. He helped create the HBO sketch comedy series Exit 57 — which won five Cable ACE awards in 1995 — and he also wrote and performed sketches on The Dana Carvey Show. Colbert is also the voice of Ace on the Saturday Night Live animated skits Ace & Gary: The Ambiguously Gay Duo.

But you already knew all that, because you get it; you’re one of the heroes who watch the show.

All is fair in love and …

Thursday, December 8th, 2005

Max Borders finishes the phrase All is fair in love and …:

Nope. Not war. If you prevent enemy combatants from getting enough shuteye, make them sit in uncomfortable positions or mock their genitals, — you have crossed the line in the 21st century. No, war has gotten a conscience (unless, of course, you’re a ‘freedom fighter,’ in which case strapping plastic explosives to yourself and walking into a school, market or mosque is fair).

Actually, the answer is politics. ‘All is fair in love and politics.’ Try it out. It may not sound right at first, but you’ll warm to it. You’ll have to, because this new maxim has more verity than the old one.

Baby Foxes Going to the Dogs

Thursday, December 8th, 2005

I’ve blogged on this before, but now I’ve got a photo. From Baby Foxes Going to the Dogs:

Young foxes, or kits, scamper in a cage in Siberia, Russia, where they are part of a 45-year research project to domesticate foxes. Each generation has been selectively bred for tameness — fearlessness and nonaggression toward humans. By now the foxes in the project behave like pet dogs, barking and wagging their tails at humans.

Also like pet dogs, the domesticated foxes can ‘read’ human cues (pointing, for example) much better than their wild cousins or even tame chimpanzees, according to a new study published today in Current Biology. The study authors call such behavior social intelligence. They say its appearance in domesticated foxes may help us better understand how intelligence developed in humans and other animals.

As you can see, selectively breeding foxes for tameness has led to animals that both look and behave like dogs.

Iraq and the Corruption Trap

Wednesday, December 7th, 2005

Arnold Kling explains the Corruption Trap:

The World Bank’s Philip Keefer says that young democracies are fragile because governments are weak. Weak governments, unable to sustain broad-based power, turn to corruption in order to retain narrow-based power. However, corruption discredits the government, making broad-based power even less available. This makes the government even more dependent on corruption for survival. I call this the Corruption Trap.

Untranslatable Word In U.S. Aide’s Speech Leaves Beijing Baffled

Wednesday, December 7th, 2005

Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick’s speech to the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations emphasized that “we need to urge China to become a responsible stakeholder” in the international system. Unfortunately, there’s no word in Chinese for stakeholder — or many other words used in negotiations, as Untranslatable Word In U.S. Aide’s Speech Leaves Beijing Baffled explains:

The dustup in China over ‘stakeholder’ recalls the consternation that followed President Bill Clinton’s proposal of a U.S. ‘engagement’ with China amid a rough patch between the two sides in 1995. Chinese who spoke English were befuddled by a word that could mean ‘both an exchange of fire and a marriage proposal,’ notes Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

The phrase ‘win-win’ was an enigma to many Chinese officials before negotiations in 1999 over the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization. Now the phrase, whose Chinese translation is closer to ‘twin win,’ is ubiquitous in official Chinese speeches.

Then came talk in Washington over the past couple of years of ‘hedging’ against the risks of China’s economic and military rise. ‘That one wasn’t too tough,’ says Bonnie Glaser, a China scholar who often advises the Pentagon and State Department. ‘China is a great gambling culture, so the Chinese gave it four characters that mean ‘betting on both sides.’

China’s choice of translation is sometimes tailor-made for political aims. In a 1982 joint communiqu?, one of three key documents that form the foundation of modern U.S.-China relations, the U.S. ‘acknowledged the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China’ — at least according to the agreed-upon English version. But official Chinese translations use a word whose meaning is more like ‘recognized,’ which carries greater weight in diplomatic parlance.

In 2001, a U.S. spy plane collided in midair with a Chinese fighter, sending the Chinese pilot to his death and forcing the Americans to make an emergency landing. After tense negotiations, the U.S. issued a statement in English expressing ‘regret’ over the incident. Both sides agreed China could issue its own translation. The statement in Chinese used a word that means ‘apology.’

A Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs official says there is no official Chinese translation yet of ‘stakeholder.’

‘Neutral’ Rate Can’t Be Known With Certainty, Greenspan Says

Wednesday, December 7th, 2005

‘Neutral’ Rate Can’t Be Known With Certainty, Greenspan Says — and the yield curve isn’t much use either:

Mr. Greenspan reiterated his previously stated doubts about the predictive power of the yield curve. ‘Although the slope of the yield curve remains an important financial indicator, it needs to be interpreted carefully,’ Mr. Greenspan told Mr. Saxton. ‘In particular, a flattening of the yield curve is not a foolproof indicator of future economic weakness. For example, the yield curve narrowed sharply over the period 1992-1994 even as the economy was entering the longest sustained expansion of the postwar period,’ he said.

Many factors can affect the slope of the yield curve and these factors ‘do not all have the same implications for future output growth,’ Mr. Greenspan said. ‘In judging the indicator value of any particular change in the slope of the yield curve, it is critical to understand the underlying forces that may be affecting the yield curve at that moment,’ he said.

As the period between 1992 to 1994 illustrates, simply relying on an average statistical relationship estimated over a very long sample ‘can be quite misleading,’ Mr. Greenspan said.

The Christmas classic that almost wasn’t

Wednesday, December 7th, 2005

The Christmas classic that almost wasn’t demonstrates that the network suits can be — gasp! — wrong:

When CBS bigwigs saw a rough cut of A Charlie Brown Christmas in November 1965, they hated it.

“They said it was slow,” executive producer Lee Mendelson remembers with a laugh. There were concerns that the show was almost defiantly different: There was no laugh track, real children provided the voices, and there was a swinging score by jazz pianist Vince Guaraldi.

The Greater of Two Evils

Wednesday, December 7th, 2005

Tim Worstall uses the government provision of potable water to demonstrate The Greater of Two Evils — and to explain conservative ideology:

One of the main problems rightwing nutjobs like myself face is that we’ve never quite managed to get across a fundamental point about our mistrust of government action. People assume we just have a naïve faith that markets left untouched will magically make the world a better place in each and every case. People assume that our distaste for the jumped up little vote-stealers so eager to spend our money is some sort of mental aberration. Such is probably true of me, but there are quite a few thoughtful free market voices out there. Even among those as rabid as myself, none believes there ever has been or ever will be a totally free market. Markets have always been limited by laws, regulations and even by certain societal standards. Indeed, we would insist that markets and rules go hand in hand. Otherwise, without general agreement as to what property is and general rules for its ownership and transference, how could a market even exist?
[...]
When you describe a problem, I’m all ears. When you tell me how the world can be made a better place, I’m fascinated. And when you tell me about your desire for such improvements, I am right with you. But I do insist that your program be rather more developed than: “we’ll let the Government do it.” Because as we have seen time and again, such approaches can prove to be far worse than the one offered by the money-grubbing capitalists.

Alright. So I’ll admit to being rabidly ideological, which brings me to that fundamental point I’ve always wanted to get across. With respect to the provision of any good or service: whether or not you agree with my standard “public provision is almost always a worse solution,” surely you can accept “public provision is sometimes a worse solution.” If you can’t accept that, you’re not living in the real world.