Supersizing the Levees

Wednesday, September 21st, 2005

Supersizing the Levees describes the costs of bigger and better hurricane defenses:

Besides costing billions of dollars, bolstering the line of defense against future hurricanes would likely send swarms of bulldozers into swank neighborhoods, threaten environmentally vulnerable marshes and trigger lawsuits from homeowners whose property would have to be seized to make room for the supersize levees. Raising the height of the levees to 25 feet or higher could also block views of the lake and require engineers to widen the base of the dirt structures by 100 feet or more.

Beautiful Old Newspapers

Tuesday, September 20th, 2005

Boing Boing notes that “Slate editor Jack Shafer has a nice essay about the glory days of early 20th century newspapers,” especially Pulitzer’s World.

Econ 100 Book List

Tuesday, September 20th, 2005

Arnold Kling’s Econ 100 Book List is a list for students in his econ class to choose from when writing a book report. More importantly, “All of the top ten choices are books that I think every citizen ought to read at some point”:

  1. Robert Fogel, The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death. A Nobel Prize-winning economic historian looks at where we came from and where we are going
  2. Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines or The Singularity is Near. A successful geek-entrepreneur looks at where we came from and where we are going. Spiritual was published in 1999, Singularity will be published in late Sept. 2005. If you use one of these books for one of your papers, then write your other paper on a different author.
  3. Jane Jacobs, The Economy of Cities. What makes some cities grow and others stagnate.
  4. William Lewis, The Power of Productivity. Why some countries are more successful than others.
  5. Michael Cox and Richard Alm, Myths of Rich and Poor. Separates fact from fiction on the issues of inequality and income trends
  6. Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist. Economic and statistical analysis of environmental issues
  7. Brink Lindsey, Against the Dead Hand. Political Economy of the past 150 years or so
  8. Virginia Postrel, The Future and its Enemies. Political Economy of the past 20 years or so
  9. Robert Kaplan, Eastward to Tartary. A travelogue, mostly through failed states. Not an economics book, but there are lessons here about economic backwardness
  10. Hernando de Soto, The Mystery of Capital. Claims to have the solution to economic backwardness
  11. Dan Pink, Free Agent Nation. The odds are that you, too, will be self-employed at some point
  12. Carl Shapiro and Hal Varian, Information Rules. The modern dilemma is that information wants to be free but people still need to get paid. This book was written soon after the Internet became commercial. The examples will seem outdated but the economic principles are not
  13. Edward Jay Epstein, The Big Picture. Describes the economics of the movie industry (warning: also gets sidetracked on non-economic topics).
  14. David Cutler, Your Money or Your Life. Economic analysis of our health care system
  15. James Bennett, The Anglosphere Challenge. Looks at how technological innovation interacts with cultural anthropology.
  16. Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel. Long, Erudite analysis of why Europe conquered the Americas rather than the other way around
  17. Amar Bhide, The Origin and Evolution of New Businesses. Brilliant examination of the role of size and risk in the business ecosystem. Somewhat difficult
  18. Randall E. Parker, Reflections on the Great Depression. Interviews with outstanding economists who lived through the 1930′s. May be better suited to economics majors than to students in this course

In Search of the Sixth Sense

Tuesday, September 20th, 2005

Fast Company interviews Ray Kurzweil in In Search of the Sixth Sense:

FC: You’re also working on a product to predict changes in the stock market.

Kurzweil: The company is called Fat Kat. Financial Accelerating Transactions from Kurzweil Adapted Technologies. I founded it about five years ago. We have a blue-ribbon group of investors. Vinod Khosla, one of the founders of Sun Microsystems. He and John Doerr run Kleiner Perkins. He is our lead investor. Mike Brown is another lead investor — he’s on our board. He was chief financial officer of Microsoft for many years, and chairman of Nasdaq. And we have a number of other prominent high-tech people backing us. And the concept is applying my field, pattern recognition, to the stock market, particularly to short-term movements of stocks. And if you look at a particular stock it looks like an electric cardiogram. It constantly goes up and down. These little movements look random, and there’s certainly a very large random component to the movement, but its not entirely unpredictable because companies have relationships with one another. They own each other. They’re in supply chains with each other. They’re in industries with each other. There’s all kinds of influences. If you see certain movements in certain stocks, that’s putting out all kinds of ripple patterns and it ultimately will reflect itself in other movements in other securities. In fact the speed with which those reverberations or implications occur is speeding up with the more rapid dissemination of information. We look at data from 10-15 years ago, and we can see similar patterns today. But the patterns 15 years ago were moving much more slowly. Right now, there’s an announcement, and 30 minutes later it’s old news because it’s been all over the Internet. Whereas, 15 years ago, it would take days for the information to move around. So we actually see very similar patterns. They just move more quickly.

For U.S. Airlines, a Shakeout Runs Into Heavy Turbulence

Monday, September 19th, 2005

From For U.S. Airlines, a Shakeout Runs Into Heavy Turbulence:

The U.S. airline industry has a business problem that’s simple to state and difficult to solve: Twenty-seven years after deregulation, major airlines’ costs exceed revenues, and they can neither cut costs nor raise fares enough to turn a profit.

In classic competitive markets, such as retailing and auto-parts manufacturing, such circumstances kill off the least efficient players, freeing survivors to raise prices enough to make money. In the airline industry, this process is proving to be excruciatingly prolonged.

Reason one: Airlines that go into bankruptcy don’t go away. They shed costly contracts and continue to fly, making it impossible for competitors to raise prices. One key to survival: Wall Street, banks, credit-card companies and aircraft makers keep lending them money, figuring they’re worth more alive than dead.

And though the government has resisted the temptation to re-regulate the industry, it periodically interferes with the Darwinian struggle. It handed the industry $5 billion after Sept. 11, offered loan guarantees to a few others, and has blocked an occasional merger and shielded U.S. airlines from foreign competition.

How bad is it?

Even before the recent run-up in jet fuel prices, the U.S. airline industry lost $32.3 billion between 2001 and 2004, wiping out the more than $18.2 billion it earned between 1938 and 2000.

Last week, both Northwest and Delta Air Lines sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on the same day. Four of six legacy carriers are now attempting to reorganize under court supervision. Since 1978, there have been more than 100 airline bankruptcies, including UAL Corp.’s United Airlines in 2002, the biggest ever.

All this hurts airline workers and retirees, and businesses that sell to them, invest in them and lend to them. About 135,000 workers have lost their jobs since 2000, the Air Transport Association says. Some airlines have abandoned pension promises made to their workers, sticking billions of dollars in obligations with the government’s pension-insurance agency.

Convoy to Tennessee Brings Immigrants To Shelter After Storm

Monday, September 19th, 2005

From Convoy to Tennessee Brings Immigrants To Shelter After Storm:

Like tens of thousands of New Orleans residents, Fredi Escobar fled the city on Aug. 28 with little more than the shirt on his back.

By the second week in September, after a 800-mile journey that first took him to Texas, Mr. Escobar had rented an apartment here and secured a job as an auto mechanic. ‘This is all we wanted — to work and get on with our lives,’ says Mr. Escobar, 32, heading home recently to have dinner with his wife.

This rapid rebound sets Mr. Escobar apart from thousands of evacuees who are still in shelters and surviving on aid from government agencies, churches and other organizations. Something else distinguishes him too: Mr. Escobar is an illegal immigrant.

Apparently the Latino community has taken better care of its own than the federal government has. Not too surprising…

Marines in Spaaaaaace!

Monday, September 19th, 2005

Marines in Spaaaaaace! describes “the U.S. Marine Corps’ futuristic plans to deploy through space”:

The effort is called Hot Eagle, and it could be the first step forward in the Marine Corps’ hopes for space travel. Within minutes of bursting into the atmosphere beyond the speed of sound — and dispatching that ominous sonic boom — a small squad of Marines could be on the ground and ready to take care of business within 2 hours.

I should point out that Heinlein’s Starship Troopers has been on the Marine Corps’ doctrine, training, and tactics reading list for some time.

Dropping Everything

Sunday, September 18th, 2005

Dropping Everything tells the story of how Bruce French, “an itinerant private chef living in a teepee…in Telluride, Colorado,” picked up and left for Peraliya, Sri Lanka, after the tsunami hit:

Mr. French confronted and rejected the kinds of notions many people harbor in times of crisis: The international aid community would never let down a person in need. The poor are always noble. Big companies, including Big Oil, don’t have a heart.

Over time, some locals came to resent the foreigners, who they thought were meddling in village affairs. Mr. French was forced to deliver aid in secret to forestall jealousies. One of Mr. French’s friends began to drink heavily after long days of collecting bodies. Another came to view the Sri Lankans as ungrateful.

Do the Right Thing

Sunday, September 18th, 2005

Do the Right Thing opens with a moral dilemma:

Consider the following dilemma: Mike is supposed to be the best man at a friend’s wedding in Maine this afternoon. He is carrying the wedding rings with him in New Hampshire, where he has been staying on business. One bus a day goes directly to the coast. Mike is on his way to the bus station with 15 minutes to spare when he realizes that his wallet has been stolen, and with it his bus tickets, his credit cards, and all his forms of ID.

At the bus station Mike tries to persuade the officials, and then a couple of fellow travelers, to lend him the money to buy a new ticket, but no one will do it. He’s a stranger, and it’s a significant sum. With five minutes to go before the bus’s departure, he is sitting on a bench trying desperately to think of a plan. Just then, a well-dressed man gets up for a walk, leaving his jacket, with a bus ticket to Maine in the pocket, lying unattended on the bench. In a flash, Mike realizes that the only way he will make it to the wedding on time is if he takes that ticket. The man is clearly well off and could easily buy himself another one.

Should Mike take the ticket?

Unsurprisingly, different cultures answer the question differently:

My own judgment comes down narrowly, but firmly, against stealing the ticket. And in studies of moral reasoning, the majority of American adults and children answer as I do: Mike should not take the ticket, even if it means missing the wedding. But this proportion varies dramatically across cultures. In Mysore, a city in the south of India, 85 percent of adults and 98 percent of children say Mike should steal the ticket and go to the wedding. Americans, and I, justify our choice in terms of justice and fairness: it is not right for me to harm this stranger — even in a minor way. We could not live in a world in which everyone stole whatever he or she needed. The Indian subjects focus instead on the importance of personal relationships and contractual obligations, and on the relatively small harm that will be done to the stranger in contrast to the much broader harm that will be done to the wedding.

An elder in a Maisin village in Papua New Guinea sees the situation from a third perspective, focused on collective responsibility. He rejects the dilemma: “If nobody [in the community] helped him and so he [stole], I would say we had caused that problem.”

The article then goes on to examine the burgeoning field of moral psychology.

What They’re Reading at the Kitchen Table

Sunday, September 18th, 2005

What They’re Reading at the Kitchen Table explains how “home-schoolers of all stripes find common ground in some good, old-fashioned books”:

When it comes to their history books, conservative home-schoolers hunger for tales of great men and are suspicious of books written in the era of political correctness. And liberals like old histories for their utopian, premodern feel, when nature had yet to be despoiled. These preferences reach a confluence in the works of two authors who are both smashingly successful with home-schoolers: Laura Ingalls Wilder and G.A. Henty.

Wilder, of course, wrote the seven ‘Little House on the Prairie’ books, published from 1932 to 1943. Her true-life tales of traveling west with her family feature adventure, churchgoing, traditional gender roles and some insensitive encounters with Indians. But they also have strong female characters and a loving attention to the natural environment. And, best of all, they feature a world before today’s bureaucratized society.

‘You can almost guarantee the Little House books will be on nearly everybody’s lists,’ says Lynn Hocraffer, a mother of two in Illinois who runs a Yahoo user group for nearly 2,000 home-schooling families. From the wildlife to the geography to the Indian chiefs, Ms. Hocraffer notes, the context of Wilder’s books is all real: ‘When you follow the one family, you are actually following the whole history of the nation.’

Wilder’s only competitor in the home-schooling popularity contest would be George Alfred Henty, an Englishman and contemporary of Queen Victoria who wrote about 70 books in which teenage boys get caught up in great happenings, from the Crusades to the American Civil War, and speak in bonny words to natives. Every few chapters, a boy’s courage and honor are tested, but with the aid of God and his conscience he most often does the righteous, manful thing. It’s Walter Scott for Victorian younguns, and today’s home-schoolers eat it up. PrestonSpeed, a Pennsylvania publishing house founded in 1996 to bring Henty’s works back into print, has sold about 25,000 copies of each of the 45 books they’ve so far reissued.

Though there is plenty of crossover, Wilder and Henty appeal to slightly different crowds. Liberals and secularists may be wary of Henty’s God-talk and manlier-than-thou chivalry, while the most religious Christians would consider Wilder insufficiently pious. But what’s more interesting is what these two authors — and their readerships — have in common: a preference for long books, often parts of a series, consumed with a leisure that public-school curricula don’t allow; an emphasis on narratives, which children like, divorced from contemporary politics, which surely can wait; and a powerful sense that children are major players in the world, the kind of people, perhaps, who deserve better than large classrooms and who may grow up more likely to write books than to be told which ones to read.

Cherished Myths About Who Is Winning in Iraq

Saturday, September 17th, 2005

In Cherished Myths About Who Is Winning in Iraq, James Dunnigan explains why it’s difficult to determine who is winning the war on terror:

Partly, it’s because we still don’t agree who won wars and battles in the past. Take Vietnam. The U.S. didn’t lose the war. When American forces withdrew in 1972, the South Vietnamese government was still in power. The north eventually won, not via a guerilla war (American and South Vietnamese efforts had destroyed the guerilla force in the south) but via an invasion with conventional forces (including lots of tanks), right across the border. The north tried it first in 1972, right after U.S. troops were just about gone, and failed. So they built up their forces for three years, tried again, and succeeded.

There are plenty of other myths in military history. How about the one depicting the Germans as the super soldiers during World War II, while Americans were considered a bunch of losers who needed superior numbers to prevail. While the Germans had a lot of good ideas, and were pretty lethal, their big advantage was better training, for both troops and leaders (officers and NCOs). But when combat experienced American units encountered German troops at the end of the war, if was often the G.I.’s giving the Germans a beating, and lessons on how it’s done.

Even World War I, long dismissed as a thoughtless head-butting contest, has been revealed as anything but as historians go take a closer look at what really went on. Seems everyone was coming up with many startling new ideas throughout 1914-18. The problem was that both sides were doing it, which maintained the stalemate until the very end, when both sides developed the weapons and tactics (for infantry, tanks and aircraft) that would define warfare for the next century. But if you just believed the “conventional wisdom,” you’d miss what was really going on. And you’d miss the real lessons of those wars, the lessons that can save your ass in future conflicts.

We can see this struggle between reality and “conventional wisdom” being played out in Iraq right now.

Examples of big shifts with little reporting:

  • Extremely low casualty rates.
  • Robots and networking on the battlefield.
  • Modern policing and investigation methods applied to operations — CSI: Baghdad.

Canada Considers Robotic Fighters

Saturday, September 17th, 2005

Unmanned combat aircraft are on their way. From Canada Considers Robotic Fighters:

Canada, which will have to replace its fleet of 122 American built F-18 fighters by 2017, is seriously considering buying combat UAVs (UCAVs). The United States already has several UCAVs in development, and so far, the testing has gone well. Recently, one UCAV design, the X45A, even carried out a bombing raid, after first finding the target, without any operator intervention. The production version of this aircraft, the X45C will be 39 feet long (with a 49 foot wingspan.) weigh 19 tons, and have a 2.2 ton payload. The X-45C has a combat radius of 2,300 kilometers, or can go out 1,800 kilometers, hang around for two hours, and return. The X-45C can stay in the air for about six hours on internal fuel. The X-45C will also be able to perform in-flight refueling. Since it doesn’t carry a pilot, aerial refueling can be done several times if there’s a need to keep the aircraft up there, and there are no equipment problems. The 20 ton F-18 used by Canada (as the CF-18) has less range than the X-45C, and is not as maneuverable. While there’s little doubt that UCAVs can carry out recon and bombing missions, the big unknown is air-to-air combat. The software guys believe this will be no problem, the pilot community is less sure. However, tests with remotely controlled fighter aircraft in the 1970s showed that unmanned aircraft had an edge over those with pilots aboard (because many aircraft maneuvers are limited by the physical limitations of the human body, not the aircraft.)

American military pilots are not looking forward to the first air-to-air combat tests between piloted aircraft and UCAVs. At the moment, the air power generals (nearly all of them pilots) insist that such tests won’t take place any time soon. But if Canada expresses interest in buying the X-45C, but only if it can handle air-to-air combat, Congress can pull rank on the air force generals, and the Canadians will get their flying killdroids. The U.S. Air Force will get heartburn.

The Frustrating Permanence of Failed States

Saturday, September 17th, 2005

James Dunnigan discusses The Frustrating Permanence of Failed States:

“Failed states” have been around for a long time. In fact, one of the major achievements of mankind was the development of the nation state. But as the history of the last few thousand years has made clear, creating a nation state is difficult, and running it efficiently is even more of a chore. Despite the efforts of the long-gone European colonial governments, and nationalistic locals, most of Africa still remains an ungovernable place. It was that way when the Europeans showed up in force during the 19th century. Back then, most of the continent had no government beyond that provided by tribal councils, or more ambitious ethnic warlords. It had been that way since the dawn of time. It was still that way in many other parts of the world.

The establishment of the United Nations after World War II led to the generally accepted fiction that the entire planet was run by real, functioning, governments. As we enter the 21st century, it’s become obvious that large areas still lack functioning governments. And many that do currently have a government, are cursed with problems that threaten to destroy those governments at any minute. A classic case was Ivory Coast, which for a long time was seen as one of the best governed nations in Africa. But the key to the stability in Ivory Coast was local politicians staying away from ethnic or tribal demagoguery. Eventually, one major politician played the ethnic card, and chaos followed. Same situation in Iraq, where Kurds, and Sunni and Shia Arabs, were kept in line for centuries by the domination of the Sunni Arabs (about 20 percent of the population, but owner of nearly a hundred percent of the guns). The Iraq situation is not unique. Many other, seemingly peaceful, parts of the world remain that way only because one minority terrorizes the others into subservience.

The Taming of the Screw

Friday, September 16th, 2005

The Taming of the Screw recounts how Kenneth LeVey developed a new technology for creating highly specialized screws that wouldn’t, for instance, compress and crack concrete:

Screws are made, oddly enough, by squeezing metal rather than cutting it. A steel or alloy blank, a cylinder with no threads, is rolled between two heavy dies that are grooved with diagonal lines. The blank is put under so much pressure that metal is squished into the diagonal grooves, forming a threaded spiral. Manipulating the shape of the threads using this method, called thread-rolling, was thought to be impossible because it would be too hard to control the structure of the screw if metal oozed into odd shapes.

LeVey considered stamping screws instead, but engineers couldn’t figure out how to get the threads all the way around the screw, and they couldn’t make the screws unscrew. He dreamed up a new way of shaping the screws, using two spinning discs instead of dies, but it would have required expensive new equipment and the writeoff of millions of dollars in old equipment. So he returned to thread-rolling to try to revamp a century-old process.

He was flabbergasted by how archaic screw design was. On rare occasions when a new screw length or width was needed, an engineer would consult a 300-page manual dating from 1936 that explains the relationships between certain heights and pitches of threads and the lengths and widths of the resulting screws. ‘They would go do math for a couple of days and come back with an answer,’LeVey says–to how the grooved dies should look, how much pressure should be applied to the blank, and what the diameter of the blank should be.

LeVey had a handful of interns spend three months putting the mummified math of the old screw guide into software. Meanwhile, he grabbed an old thread-rolling machine out of a nearby factory and wired it to operate very slowly to let him observe exactly what was happening. Using three-dimensional solid-modeling software, LeVey gleaned a finer understanding of how the metal moved when it was squished. Possibilities opened up. LeVey could design intricate dies that, on a computer at least, could wrap screws with a helix of shaped threads.

To make dies capable of pressing tiny, intricate patterns onto the threads, LeVey had to borrow a technology often used to create injection molds for detailed plastic parts. The pattern of the die is milled into a soft, graphitelike carbon. The carbon is placed next to the steel die form, and very high voltage is sent between the carbon and the steel, creating a powerful arc of heat, which vaporizes the steel in the desired pattern. ‘No one had bothered to take advantage of all of this new technology available to us and apply it to this very old product,’ LeVey says.

By 2003 LeVey and ITW finally had a product. The company, under its Tapcon brand, began marketing large-diameter concrete screws with tiny, arrowhead-shape chisels wrapped around the screw, to cut into concrete like sharks’ teeth. Builders previously had to insert adhesive into predrilled holes to get screws to hold when they attached wood framing to concrete foundations; now they can just use LeVey’s breakthrough.

(Hat tip to GeekPress.)

The Media Center PC

Friday, September 16th, 2005

Chris Anderson, of “Long Tail” fame, sings the praises of The Media Center PC:

I’ll no doubt be savaged for praising a Microsoft product, but my favorite technology of the week is our Windows Media Center PC.

It looks like a product with a future:

It appears that, after a slow start, Media Center PCs are finally taking off and now account for 43% of desktop PCs sold in retail (although less than a third of them have TV tuners). Microsoft is promoting it by eliminating the price premium over the regular Windows XP home edition. As a result, you can now find Media Center PCs for less than $900. It’s also going to be built into the default home version of Windows Vista, the next major Microsoft OS. And it’s at the core of Intel’s new Digital Home strategy.   Analysts expect Media Center PCs to reach US sales of more than 20m a year by 2007, and some are rather hyperbolically predicting that it will be "next year’s iPod".