The Millionaire Next Door vs. the Politician in Washington

Saturday, February 19th, 2005

In The Millionaire Next Door vs. the Politician in Washington, Arnold Kling cites Nobel laureate Robert William Fogel’s work and contrasts the attitudes of Prodigious Accumulators of Wealth (PAWs) and Power-Intoxicated Washington (PIWs):

In 1875, food/clothing/shelter accounted for 74 percent of total consumption (including leisure). In 1995, they accounted for just 13 percent of total consumption. For material goods, productivity tends to grow faster than demand, so that a smaller fraction of resources is devoted to them. We see that in the ever-declining proportion of the work force engaged in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing.

On the other hand, the demand for leisure tends to rise with income, and demand grows faster than productivity in health care and education. Fundamentally, leisure-time activities, education, and health care are the sectors of the economy you want to gravitate toward if you want to go where spending is going to increase.

Politicians, along with their allies who value paternalism and redistribution, understand the trends, too. Many on the left are willing to allow the market to operate in the ever-declining portion of the economy that produces material goods. However, they insist that education, health care, and retirement are too important and complex to be left to the private sector. The Washington power-lusters are as savvy as any businessman in gravitating toward the growth industries.

Remarks at NBER Conference on Diversifying the Science & Engineering Workforce

Saturday, February 19th, 2005

Please enjoy the opening to Lawrence H. Summers’ Remarks at NBER Conference on Diversifying the Science & Engineering Workforce:

I asked Richard, when he invited me to come here and speak, whether he wanted an institutional talk about Harvard’s policies toward diversity or whether he wanted some questions asked and some attempts at provocation, because I was willing to do the second and didn’t feel like doing the first.

I think he met his provocation goal.

Looney Tune-Ups

Thursday, February 17th, 2005

According to Looney Tune-Ups, Warner Brothers is “reimagining” its most famous characters (Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck, etc.) for a new show, Loonatics:

For “Loonatics,” the six characters are being projected 700 years into the future, given superpowers, and outfitted in tight-fitting, slenderizing space gear.

No thanks.

Range of New Stoves Use Magnetic Energy, Not Flames or Coils

Thursday, February 17th, 2005

From Range of New Stoves Use Magnetic Energy, Not Flames or Coils:

Induction burners tend to cook food faster than traditional stovetops, and advocates of the technology point out that kitchen cleanup is simpler since the glass top can easily be wiped down. But convenience comes at a price. Not only do induction cooktops cost up to twice as much as regular cooktops, but they also work only with pots and pans that have magnetic qualities — no aluminum or Pyrex. Stylish and expensive copper-bottom pans are no good with induction cooktops, either. (The test: If a magnet won’t stick to it, the pan won’t work.)
[...]
The induction devices work like this: Electricity passes through magnetic coils in the cooktop, producing a rapidly fluctuating magnetic field above the burner. That magnetic field forces the molecules in a metal pot to rapidly vibrate — generating friction that heats the pot and ultimately, the food.
[...]
Manufacturers estimate that only 50% or so of the heat generated through electric coils or gas flames on stoves actually gets into the pan to heat up food, the rest of the heat is released into the room. Induction burners, by contrast, are about 90% efficient, manufacturers say.

The Rise of the Indian Rope Trick

Thursday, February 17th, 2005

In ‘The Rise of the Indian Rope Trick’: The Grift of the Magi, Teller, the shorter, quieter half of Penn and Teller, tells the story of one of the most famous magic tricks that never existed:

When John Elbert Wilkie died in 1934, he was remembered for his 14 years as a controversial director of the Secret Service, during which he acquired a reputation for forgery and skullduggery, and for masterly manipulation of the press. But not a single obituary cited his greatest contribution to the world: Wilkie was the inventor of the legendary Indian Rope Trick. Not the actual feat, of course; it does not and never did exist. In 1890, Wilkie, a young reporter for The Chicago Tribune, fabricated the legend that the world has embraced from that day to this as an ancient feat of Indian street magic.
[...]
In 1890 The Chicago Tribune was competing in a cutthroat newspaper market by publishing sensational fiction as fact. The Rope Trick — as Lamont’s detective work reveals — was one of those fictions. The trick made its debut on Aug. 8, 1890, on the front page of The Tribune’s second section. An anonymous, illustrated article told of two Yale graduates, an artist and a photographer, on a visit to India. They saw a street fakir, who took out a ball of gray twine, held the loose end in his teeth and tossed the ball upwards where it unrolled until the other end was out of sight. A small boy, “about 6 years old,” then climbed the twine and, when he was 30 or 40 feet in the air, vanished. The artist made a sketch of the event. The photographer took snapshots. When the photos were developed, they showed no twine, no boy, just the fakir sitting on the ground. “Mr. Fakir had simply hypnotized the entire crowd, but he couldn’t hypnotize the camera,” the writer concluded.

Baby Name Wizard

Thursday, February 17th, 2005

GeekPress pointed me to a fascinating on-line tool, the Baby Name Wizard, which tells you how popular a particular first name has been over the decades, with these instructions:

Try “Caitlyn” vs. “Adolph” to see some dramatic examples.

It’s a pretty jazzy Java applet. Check it out.

Capitalism and Human Nature

Thursday, February 17th, 2005

Will Wilkinson explains evolutionary psychology’s take on free markets in Capitalism and Human Nature:

What evolutionary psychology really helps us to appreciate is just what an unlikely achievement complex, liberal, market-based societies really are. It helps us to get a better grip on why relatively free and fabulously wealthy societies like ours are so rare and, possibly, so fragile. Evolutionary psychology helps us to understand that successful market liberal societies require the cultivation of certain psychological tendencies that are weak in Stone Age minds and the suppression or sublimation of other tendencies that are strong. Free, capitalist societies, where they can be made to work, work with human nature. But it turns out that human nature is not easy material to work with.

The main points:

  • We are Coalitional
  • We are Hierarchical
  • We are Envious Zero-sum Thinkers
  • Property Rights are Natural
  • Mutually Beneficial Exchange is Natural

(Interestingly, despite the fact that we’re envious zero-sum thinkers, we’re wired for mutually beneficial exchange.)

F. A. Hayek anticipated evolutionary psychology’s analysis, noting that we live within two worlds, the “macro-cosmos” of society at large and the “micro-cosmos” of our friends and family:

If we were to apply the unmodified, uncurbed, rules of the micro-cosmos (i.e., of the small band or troop, or of, say, our families) to the macro-cosmos (our wider civilization), as our instincts and sentimental yearnings often make us wish to do, we would destroy it. Yet if we were always to apply the rules of the extended order to our more intimate groupings, we would crush them. So we must learn to live in two sorts of worlds at once.

Immanuel Kant remarked, “from the crooked timber of humanity no truly straight thing can be made.” Denis Dutton noted:

It is not . . . that no beautiful carving or piece of furniture can be produced from twisted wood; it is rather that whatever is finally created will only endure if it takes into account the grain, texture, natural joints, knotholes, strengths and weaknesses of the original material.

Origins and evolution of the Western diet

Wednesday, February 16th, 2005

Origins and evolution of the Western diet (Cordain et al. 81 (2): 341 — American Journal of Clinical Nutrition) steps through the many ways our modern Western diet differs from that of our primitive ancestors:

In particular, food staples and food-processing procedures introduced during the Neolithic and Industrial Periods have fundamentally altered 7 crucial nutritional characteristics of ancestral hominin diets: 1) glycemic load, 2) fatty acid composition, 3) macronutrient composition, 4) micronutrient density, 5) acid-base balance, 6) sodium-potassium ratio, and 7) fiber content. The evolutionary collision of our ancient genome with the nutritional qualities of recently introduced foods may underlie many of the chronic diseases of Western civilization.

India’s Deadly Lies

Tuesday, February 15th, 2005

India’s Deadly Lies shares a little know fact:

[M]ost of the medicines that WHO terms “essential” in developing countries are no longer patented — fully 98% of them are off patent.

The Greeks Had a Word for It: Hegemony vs. Empire

Tuesday, February 15th, 2005

In The Greeks Had a Word for It: Hegemony vs. Empire, Lee Harris explains where the word “hegemony” comes from:

The word is Greek: it means the leadership of a coalition or an alliance, and it was used in this sense by the Greek historian Herodotus and Thucydides. But since English has a number of perfectly good words to indicate leadership, such as chief, head, principal, boss, manager, organizer, general director, and so forth, few users of the English language felt any need to rescue this word from its moldy niche in the Greek lexicon until the mid 1840′s when the English radical and banker George Grote began publishing his monumental History of Greece, a work of immense scholarship that is still wonderfully fascinating.

Curiously enough, in light of its current usage, the reason Grote decided to revive the Greek word hegemony was in order to distinguish it sharply from the Latin-derived word with which it has now become inextricably muddled, namely, the word empire.

Athenian hegemony eventally devolved into empire, but only after a successful run:

Athenian hegemony had first emerged in the aftermath of the Persian wars — wars in which the colossus of the Persian empire had tried to transform the various independent Greek city-states into tribute-paying colonies, using a combination of bribery, diplomacy, and overwhelming military force. In the course of the struggle against Oriental imperialism, Athens, with its great naval power, had ended up as the Greek city-state that was in the best position to defend against further Persian invasions — an indisputable fact that became the basis of a post-war defensive coalition developed by Athens and its allies in order to afford protection for the various Greek city-states spread across the Aegean Sea, on islands such as Samos, Chios, and Lesbos, as well as along the Ionian mainland — all of which had been targets of the previous Persian invasions, and could easily become targets once again.

This defensive confederation was called the Delian League, after the island of Delos where it was first headquartered. Originally devised to keep the Persian Empire at bay, its initial role was not terribly different from the role that NATO played vis-?-vis the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Furthermore, like NATO, the Delian League worked: during its existence, the Greek city-states that were its members were free both from Persian invasion and tribute obligations. Indeed, thanks to Athenian naval supremacy during this period, the Aegean Sea was even freed from the eternal maritime pestilence known as piracy.

In the beginning, the members of the Delian League were required to produce ships and sailors capable of rallying to the defense of the Greeks against Persian assault, but over time the various city-states under the protective umbrella of Athens began simply to pay Athens for the services rendered by its huge and extraordinarily competent navy. Athens did not make this happen — it was the will of the various commerce-minded city-states whose prosperity was more important to them than their ability to defend themselves with their own fleet and crew.

Unfortunately, the payment of money from the confederates gradually came to be seen as a kind of imperial tribute — analogous to the tribute money that the Persian Empire itself exacted from the various regions over which it governed, and soon what had started out as a coalition under the leadership of Athens became a maritime empire that was operated by the Athenians solely for the profit of the Athenians. Indeed, the day would come when the rule of Athens would become as brutal, if not more so, than the rule of the Persian empire, and city-states that had once been the allies of Athens would revolt from its rule, seeking to regain the autonomy that they had lost. Though the Persian forces of Darius and Xerxes had been repelled, the poison of Oriental despotism had begun to corrupt the egalitarian ethos of the Greeks. The Persian King owed his vast wealth to the huge amount of tribute that he could force his satrapies, or colonies, to pay him. Why couldn’t Athens play the same game?

Car Bombs vs. Human Beings

Tuesday, February 15th, 2005

Car Bombs vs. Human Beings explains the realities of this terrorist weapon:

Most of us have only seen explosions in movies where slow-motion photography or the use of low velocity explosions with lots of smoke and flame create spectacular, lingering visual effects. Real bombs, using a high order of explosives, go off in a millisecond flash doing huge damage in a literal instant. There is little for the eye to linger upon. One moment everything is normal. Then a supersonic boom. Then destruction.
[...]
The human body contains two principal air-filled spaces — the lungs and the nasal cavity and attached sinuses. A human subjected to a bomb blast wave instantly has hundreds and perhaps thousands psi of pressure pushing on these cavities. A mere 15 psi above normal is considered the threshold for possible lung injury, so imagine what happens to those near the epicenter of a bomb blast.

The chest caves in. The lungs inside it are compressed violently in on themselves — so violently that the entire network of pulmonary vessels connecting them to the heart and the rest of the body are sheared off.

When the instant of blast overpressure passes, the lungs suddenly re-expand, like a crushed rubber ball rebounding in the hand of a strong man. But now they are filled with a huge volume of blood, blood that should be flowing to the heart and other parts of the body.

Blood that would normally return to the heart through the left ventrical has now overwhelmed the lungs. No blood in the left ventrical equals no blood in the heart equals no pulmonary output to the body. Blood pressure — zero. The body is instantly starved.

Up above, in the skull, at the same instant, the overpressure works in another way. The nasal and sinus cavities implode. That part of the skull called the cribiform plate ruptures, snaps and may be thrust upward into the base of the brain.

Kind of academic, isn’t it? You can die so many ways in the space of a few seconds in a bomb blast.

Will Blogs Produce a Chilling Effect?

Tuesday, February 15th, 2005

Will Blogs Produce a Chilling Effect? opens with a thought experiment:

Imagine that mind reading were suddenly imposed on humanity automatically transmitting all our thoughts to those around us. Involuntary telepathy would destroy countless marriages as wives learned of their husbands perverse fantasies. Bosses would fire millions after they found out what their employees really thought of them. Police would be inundated with reports of ordinary citizens contemplating hideous crimes. But eventually we would realize that all humans harbor evil thoughts and an equilibrium would emerge in which we forgave bad thoughts that didn’t lead to terrible deeds.

James D. Miller contends that blogs have a similar effect:

I fear that blogs may soon make many Americans afraid to speak their minds. Imagine you’re a manager of a company. Your new blog nightmare is that you will say something stupid in a meeting and this will be reported in a blog. Other blogs will report the initial comment and soon whatever group you have offended will pressure your company to fire you. Or perhaps your distasteful remark will go unreported until you’re promoted to CEO. Then your employees, while blogging about what kind of boss you are, will literally tell the world about your past unfortunate utterance.

Human Artillery Shells

Tuesday, February 15th, 2005

In discussing “the basic Islamofascist ‘artillery shell’ [which] is a young ‘martyr’ with clothing or backpack stuffed full of explosives,” Human Artillery Shells mentions a surprising fact about body armor and explosives:

Kevlar vests, such as our soldiers routinely wear, actually “reflect” the blast wave into the wearer’s body at eight to nine times the original force. This is true, as well, of so-called “bomb suits” worn by ordnance disposal technicians. These garments do protect against the deadly effects of shrapnel, but they actually predispose the wearer to severe internal blast injuries.

Red for Romance

Tuesday, February 15th, 2005

I always found the red-state/blue-state color scheme counter-intuitive. In Red for Romance, Dan Klein explains why:

[T]he new U.S. political chromatics is just wrong. It emerged during the 2000 election and has stuck. The Democrats, however, should be red, not blue. And for the Republicans, blue is perhaps fitting enough.

Red is a warm color. It is emotional, even sensual. Red is the natural color of romance.
[...]
The added factor is the yearning not only that sentiment be shared, but shared by all. A key aspect of the Left is the appeal of an encompassing sharing of sentiment. The appeal of the Left is The People’s Romance.
[...]
The Left is about collective romance. Read Marx closely, and at heart you will find the aspiration for encompassing sentiment. In Marx and the Leftist train, the collectivity is a vehicle of fulfillment and liberation. In collectivism we escape alienation, which Marx closely identified with the division of labor. In collectivism we achieve our humanness.

It is no accident, then, that red has been the color of the Left. The Left is romantic politics. In Europe, the Left parties are still red. In Europe, the First of May is celebrated as worker solidarity day. It is a day of Leftist parades, a sea of red, nowadays with a splash of green.

On blue:

Blue is cool and dispassionate. In Sweden, where my Valentine’s Day cards will arrive, the conservative party, the Moderates, take the color blue.

The true blues strive to resist any impulse to view government as romantic force. They believe George Washington’s claim: “Government is not reason, it is not eloquence — it is force. Like fire, it is a dangerous servant and a fearsome master.”

Government is no means of fulfillment. It is no expression of becoming. It is a dangerous power, often even brutal. We must coolly account for every action. We must girdle it with icy blue.

Malcolm Gladwell’s Advice to the Eagles

Tuesday, February 15th, 2005

ESPN.com interviewed Malcolm Gladwell and asked him (hypothetically) to advise the Eagles (before the Super Bowl). He fell back on one of Blink‘s anecdotes, about the military’s wargames going into Iraq:

Van Riper, in a sense, went to the ‘no-huddle’ against his much more formidable opponent. And his experience shows that being good at deliberate, conscious decision-making doesn’t make you good at instinctive decisions.

That’s why I’ve always been so surprised that more NFL teams don’t use the no-huddle. It’s not just that it forces your opponent to keep a specific defense on the field. It’s that it shifts the game cognitively: it forces coaches and defensive captains to think and react entirely in the instinctive ‘blink’ mode — and when teams aren’t prepared for that kind of fast-paced thinking crazy things happen, like Iraq beating the U.S. Andy Reid has to know that Belichick has an edge when he can calmly and deliberately plot his next move. But does he still have an advantage when he and his players have to make decisions on the spur of the moment? I’d tell Andy Reid to go no-huddle at random, unpredictable points during the game — to throw Belichick out of his comfort zone.

I had a self-defense (not martial arts, self-defense) instructor who shared deBecker’s philosophy:

DeBecker talked a lot about how rigorously he trains his people [at his personal security agency]. If the quality of our coordination and instinctive reactions breaks down when our heart rate gets above 145, he wants to expose his people to stressful situations over and over and over again until they can face them at 130, 110 or 90.

So he fires bullets at people, and does these utterly terrifying exercises involving angry pit bulls. The first and second and third and fourth time you run through one of deBecker’s training sessions you basically lose control of your bowels and take off like a scalded cat. By the fifth time, essential bodily functions start to return. By the 10th time, you can function as a normal human being.

This, by the way, is why police officers will tell you that you must practice dialing 911 at least once a week. Because if you don’t, when a burglar is actually in the next room, believe it or not you won’t be able to dial 911: you’ll forget the number, or you’ll have lost so many motor skills under the stress of the moment that your fingers won’t be able to pick out the buttons on the phone.

So I’d run quarterbacks who don’t do well under pressure through deBecker’s gauntlet — or any other kind of similar exercise so they have a sense of what REAL life-threatening stress feels like. I’d run them through a live-fire exercise at Quantico. I’d have them spend the offseason working with a trauma team in south-central L.A. It is only through repeated exposures to genuine stress that our body learns how to function effectively under that kind of pressure. I think its time we realized that a quarterback needs the same kind of exhaustive preparation for combat that we give bodyguards and soldiers.