Guardian Unlimited Books | Review | In thrall to ratdom

Wednesday, January 19th, 2005

Christopher Priest opens his review of Rober Sullivan’s Rats: A Year with New York’s Most Unwanted Inhabitants, In thrall to ratdom, with a short description of a recent BBC documentary:

A few years ago the BBC wildlife department broadcast a documentary about the common rat: rattus rattus (black rat) or rattus norvegicus (brown, or Norway rat). The intention was avowedly to study the animal as wildlife, as if rats were the same kind of entity as meerkats or penguins or sea cucumbers or chipmunks. The programme contained the usual breathtaking close-up shots we are now so used to in TV wildlife films: habitat, feeding, mating, reproduction, rearing the young, and so on.

The trouble was that this time the programme was about rats. In spite of one’s valiant efforts to try to see the rodents as ordinary animals with, so to speak, a point of view, it remained inescapable that a rat’s habitat is in drains, cellars and burrows, his food is our leftovers, and he and his mate’s reproduction is, well, fast and furious.

Some rat facts:

We are right to be fearful of rats, because they are verminous. They urinate and defecate in places where we keep food and clothes. They go out when it’s dark. They swarm. They gnaw through electric mains cables and gas-pipes, usually with disastrous consequences for themselves, but if they do it beneath your house they put your property and life at risk. As many as a quarter of all fires of unknown origin are thought to be caused by rats. The teeth of a brown rat are stronger, harder, than aluminium, copper, lead and iron. (They also grow prodigiously: a rat’s incisors grow five inches every year, so they don’t worry too much about chipping and breaking their teeth.)

Rats are known carriers of diseases that kill mankind: bubonic plague, famously, but also typhus, rabies, trichinosis, tularaemia and the horrific leptospirosis. They carry bacteria, mites, fleas, lice and ticks.

They have sex-lives at which some of us can only marvel. “If you are in New York while you are reading this sentence,” Sullivan says, “or even in any other major city… then you are in proximity to two or more rats having sex.” Male rats can mate with 20 females in a few hours; the gestation period is just three weeks; the average litter is up to 20 pups.

An In With the In Crowd, for a Fee

Wednesday, January 19th, 2005

For a fee, the hipsters at PartyBuddys.com will make you a VIP for the night. From An In With the In Crowd, for a Fee:

Its night-out package includes a guide (the party buddy) to usher clients “through crowds of jealous bystanders,” limousine service, complimentary drinks and V.I.P. treatment at six Manhattan clubs (Cielo, Plaid, Webster Hall, Copacabana, Spirit and China Club).

Fees for the night start at $350 a person; full rock-star treatment is available for $1,200.

Mr. King and Mr. Roefaro, who operate the business out of Mr. Roefaro’s late grandmother’s brick house in Union City, estimate that at least 60 percent of their clients are middle-aged professionals from out of town who have never visited a New York nightclub.

For Thai Survivors, The Dead Live On In Ghost Sightings

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

From For Thai Survivors, The Dead Live On In Ghost Sightings:

As Thai people grapple with the physical aftereffects of December’s natural disaster, they are also dealing with another serious problem: Ghosts.

For many Thais, steeped in Buddhist teachings of rebirth and even older animistic beliefs in spirits, ghosts are very real. When people die suddenly and violently, as they did in the December waves, spirits cling to their bodies and to familiar places, unsure of how to cross from the world of the living to the world of the dead, many here believe.

I remember reading, years ago, that the movie Ghost did particularly well in Thailand, because most of the population found the story plausible.

Indian Country

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

In Indian Country, Robert D. Kaplan explains that large military units that attract attention from Washington and the media can’t get their job done:

In months of travels with the American military, I have learned that the smaller the American footprint and the less notice it draws from the international media, the more effective is the operation. One good soldier-diplomat in a place like Mongolia can accomplish miracles. A few hundred Green Berets in Colombia and the Philippines can be adequate force multipliers. Ten thousand troops, as in Afghanistan, can tread water. And 130,000, as in Iraq, constitutes a mess that nobody wants to repeat — regardless of one’s position on the war.

Bobbitt on "Seeing the Futures" in the New York Times

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

In Seeing the Futures, Philip Bobbitt explains how the government’s decision-makers need to move from straightforward strategic planning to scenario planning:

For nearly 50 years, American decision-makers could rely on forms of “strategic planning” — a method that begins with choosing a desired result and then plotting the decisions that will have to be made to reach that goal. Strategic planning worked well in the two-power world because we were able to extrapolate from a relatively stable and familiar security environment, relying on more or less agreed-upon intelligence estimates.

[...]

In this new era of uncertainty, not only must we must accept that simple forecasting is not going to be very useful to us, we must sharpen our skills of forethought. One way will be to augment traditional strategic planning with “scenario planning,” a strategy that has long been a staple at the largest multinational corporations. Scenario planning involves the creation of alternative narratives about the future based on different decisions — by many players — as each scenario progresses.

Some examples of scenario planning:

Scenario planning at Royal Dutch Shell, where I am a senior adviser, helped the corporation become one of the most profitable oil conglomerates. In the early 1970′s, its scenario planners worked on hypothetical futures involving an oil boycott against the West; when political events finally brought about the Arab oil crisis, the company not only wasn’t taken by surprise, it was in a position to capitalize. In the 1990′s Shell analysts were scenario-planning a potential backlash against global companies, long before the antiglobalization movement took off. Thus, while most companies reacted to the new movement with corporate disdain, Shell was courting nongovernmental groups and decentralizing its global operations so that decisions in foreign divisions could be made by people living in and sensitive to the countries affected.

Scenario planning requires a change of culture:

Getting the government to emphasize scenario planning will not be easy. To be successful, the approach depends on well-organized dialogue between decision makers at many levels, which would be culture shock for the rigidly hierarchical executive branch. [...] Also, scenario planning requires a political culture that is tolerant of uncertainty. Contingencies of uncertain probability tend to be of little interest to politicians, who are confident they know the future. Similarly, competing scenarios are anathema to bureaucrats whose careers are threatened by answering questions like, “What would it take for this estimate to be dramatically wrong?” — which translates to, “What arguments can you give me that undermine your own recommendations?”

Killology Research Group

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

Lt. Col. Dave Grossman, author of the Pulitzer-nominated On Killing: The Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill in War and Society, has dubbed his field of study Killology: the study of the destructive act. It’s a hokey name, but the material’s fascinating.

Most humans, even when facing an aggressive enemy, display A Resistance to Killing:

Based on his postcombat interviews, Marshall concluded in his landmark book, Men Against Fire, that only 15 to 20% of the individual riflemen in World War II fired their weapons at an exposed enemy soldier. Specialized weapons, such as a flame-thrower, usually were fired. Crew-served weapons, such as a machine gun, almost always were fired. And firing would increase greatly if a nearby leader demanded that the soldier fire. But when left to their own devices, the great majority of individual combatants throughout history appear to have been unable or unwilling to kill.

In response to this research, the Army replaced bull’s-eye targets with realistic, man-shaped, pop-up targets that fall when hit:

The application and perfection of these basic conditioning techniques increased the rate of fire from near 20% in World War II to approximately 55% in Korea and around 95% in Vietnam.

Other factors in Overcoming the Resistance to Killing include proximity and respect of authority (e.g., your commanding officer grabs you, points at a target, and demands that you shoot him), physical and emotional distance to target (e.g., it’s easier to kill indirectly via artillery), and group absolution (e.g., being one member of a firing squad).

The continuous warfare of the 20th century led to mass psychiatric casualties — shell shock. From Psychiatric Casualties in War:

Swank and Marchand’s World War II study of US Army combatants on the beaches of Normandy found that after 60 days of continuous combat, 98% of the surviving soldiers had become psychiatric casualties. And the remaining 2% were identified as “aggressive psychopathic personalities.”

The Long Tail: Long Tail TV: Conclusion

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

In Long Tail TV: Conclusion, Chris Anderson shares examples of “content that is not available through traditional distribution channels but could nevertheless find an audience”:

1) TV shows that are made but not broadcast in your area:
  • Channels your cable provider doesn’t carry
  • Foreign TV
  • Local sports and events from places you aren’t

2) Old TV shows:

  • TV from the archives, from ancient to relatively recent
  • Current shows that you missed and forgot to record

3) Video of any sort that is made but not broadcast (the video found on the Internet Archive’s moving image collections, which ranges from the Prelinger Archives to SIGGRAPH animations, is a great example.)

  • Independent films
  • Commercials (which are broadcast but not scheduled and findable)
  • Amateur video, including news
  • Commercial/corporate video intended for targeted audiences

4) Video that could and would be made if only there were a good way to find an audience for it. (Steve Rosenbaum is blogging on this, too). The best sense of what that might be can be found by looking at the online video that’s been made since the broadband web became a reality.

  • Political video mashups from MoveOn. Skateboarders taping and distributing their stunts and spills. Any number of witness videos. Amateur porn. Videogame machinima. Etc…
  • The sort of thing this article about JibJab Media (home of South Park-like fare such as "This Land") celebrates. Such web video, the article says, is "spawning a cottage industry of digital movie Fellinis hoping to make their mark in the nascent world of online short films."
  • Endless numbers of reality shows.

Wired News: Cell-Phone Shushing Gets Creative

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

From Wired News: Cell-Phone Shushing Gets Creative:

It’s a familiar issue: You’re stuck somewhere with a nearby stranger yapping on a cell phone, but you’re unwilling to say anything about it. In December, designers Jim Coudal of Chicago’s Coudal Partners and Aaron Draplin of Portland, Oregon-based Draplindustries Design drafted a solution that’s been gaining buzz across the blogosphere.

Following an idea initiated by Coudal’s wife, Heidi, Coudal and Draplin put together a series of free, downloadable cards, with messages like, ‘Just so you know: Everyone around you is being forced to listen to yer conversation’ and ‘The world is a noisy place. You aren’t helping things.’ Cards are attributed to the Society for HandHeld Hushing, or SHHH.

At last check, the file (.pdf) had been downloaded a quarter of a million times, Coudal said, though he doesn’t know of anybody who has actually passed out the cards.

Together in electric dreams

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

Together in electric dreams describes a piece of software that can predict whether a song will become a hit:

The magic ingredient set to revolutionise the pop industry is, simply, a piece of software that can ‘predict’ the chance of a track being a hit or a miss. This computerised equivalent of the television programmer Juke Box Jury is known as Hit Song Science (HSS). It has been developed by a Spanish company, Polyphonic HMI, which used decades of experience developing artificial intelligence technology for the banking and telecoms industries to create a program that analysed the underlying mathematical patterns in music. It isolated and separated 20 aspects of song construction including melody, harmony, chord progression, beat, tempo and pitch and identifies and maps recurrent patterns in a song, before matching it against a database containing 30 years’ worth of Billboard hit singles — 3.5m tunes in all. The program then accords the song a score, which registers, in effect, the likelihood of it being a chart success.

HSS has a track record:

HSS confidently predicted Norah Jones’s meteoric success (tipping no less than 10 songs on her debut album Come Away with Me) well in advance of her chart-topping appearances and in the face of an industry unconvinced she would have any commercial impact. HSS also picked out all the Maroon 5 hits, including both This Love and She Will be Loved.

Of course, my first questions was, What does it take to go from recognizing hits via software to generating them?

50 Cent Makes Pitch to Get 2006 Charger

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

American cars are getting hip again. From 50 Cent Makes Pitch to Get 2006 Charger:

“I need to know what I gotta do to get that Dodge Charger first. I need that,” 50 Cent told Myles Kovacs, publisher of auto customizing publication Dub Magazine, in a telephone message last week made available to The Detroit News.

Chrysler is rushing to get 50 Cent what he wants, as it did last summer when rapper Snoop Dogg asked Chrysler division chief executive Dieter Zetsche for a Chrysler 300 sedan. The Snoop Dogg connection brought the automaker welcome cachet in the youth market.

I’m not sure that the 2006 Dodge Charger captures the spirit of the original.

In Divided U.S., A Big Question: Who Gets the Kids?

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

Just what the country needs — partisan children’s books. From In Divided U.S., A Big Question: Who Gets the Kids?:

There’s even a niche market in politically abrasive children’s literature. One new book is titled “Help! Mom! There Are Liberals Under My Bed!” It tells the fictional tale of two boys who try to run a lemonade stand, while liberals keep showing up, taking half their money in taxes, and forcing them to remove the photo of Jesus that hangs on the stand.

The book is written under a pen name because the author says she fears for her children’s safety. In Fort Mill, S.C., 10-year-old Abbey Kirrane received the book from her mom. “If you listen to liberals,” she says, “they take away your dreams and hopes for the future.” Abbey believes the book accurately describes liberals. “They can be pushy. They tell you what to do.”

The book, which is sold in some bookstores and online, is the first in a series by World Ahead Publishing, of Gardena, Calif. Up next: “Help! Mom! Hollywood is in my Hamper!”

A left-leaning children’s book “No, George, No!” depicts a “Truth Fairy” showing a cartoon Mr. Bush the errors of his ways on issues from the Iraq war to the environment. The book is designed to teach children “to be people of integrity, unlike our president,” says author Kathy Eder, who self-published it and says she has sold about 1,000 copies. Brian Henson, 11, of Orinda, Calif., received a copy as a gift from his grandmother. “The book made things clear for me,” he says.

Electronics With Borders: Some Work Only in the U.S.

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

Consumer-electronics companies have learned that arbitrage cuts into their ability to price-discriminate. From Electronics With Borders: Some Work Only in the U.S.:

Some consumer-electronics companies are designing products so they will work only in the U.S. For example, some of the latest printers from Hewlett-Packard Co. refuse to print if they aren’t fed ink cartridges bought in the same region of the world as the printer. Nintendo Co.’s latest hand-held game machines are sold in the U.S. with power adaptors that don’t work in Europe.

Such measures prevent thrifty foreign consumers and gray marketers — traders who sell goods through channels that haven’t been authorized by the manufacturer — from taking advantage of the decline of the dollar against the world’s major currencies to buy lower-price products in the U.S.

The First Hijackers

Monday, January 17th, 2005

The First Hijackers summarizes the history of airplane hijacking:

[Samuel Byck] was shot in 1974 while trying to hijack a DC-9 and crash it into the White House. As spectacular as it might have been, Byck’s plan to turn an airplane into a weapon was neither the first nor the most significant in the annals of domestic hijacking. Two years before Byck, on Jan. 29, 1972, a T.W.A. Boeing 707 bound from Los Angeles to New York was hijacked by Garrett B. Trapnell, who was shot and wounded by an F.B.I. agent after the plane landed and was sitting on the tarmac at J.F.K. Trapnell had threatened to ram the jetliner into the T.W.A. terminal unless he was provided a ransom of $306,800, won the release of the black militant Angela Davis and was granted a conversation with President Nixon. Trapnell’s subsequent trial and the measures adopted by the Nixon administration to prevent similar escapades foreshadowed much of what we have come to think of as particular to a post-9/11 world.
[...]
By the end of 1972, more than 150 American aircraft had been successfully hijacked — by escaped convicts, fugitives and the occasional Black Panther, the majority to Cuba. Hijackings to Cuba became so routine that U.S. airliners began carrying approach plans for the Havana airport.

The Age of Egocasting

Monday, January 17th, 2005

The Age of Egocasting notes that television remotes go way, way back:

A 1955 version of the remote, called the “Flash-Matic,” was wireless, using a beam of light aimed at photocells in the corners of the television set to change channels and adjust volume. Advertisements for the Flash-Matic pictured a woman, transfixed before the television, her right hand clutching a remote control that is directing a sci-fi laser beam at the TV. Unfortunately, the supposedly sophisticated photo cells on the television were unable to distinguish the remote control’s beams from sunlight, and frustrated Flash-Matic owners found their television tuners oscillating to nature’s rhythms rather than their own.

In 1956, a Zenith engineer named Robert Adler solved this problem by using ultra-sonic technology to create the Space Command 400 Remote Control. This remote, which Adler patented, used aluminum rods and tiny hammers to create the pitched sounds that the television set interpreted as “off” or “on” or “channel up” or “channel down.” The sounds emitted were inaudible to humans (although not to dogs, which were known to howl painfully as the Space Command went about its business) and the device itself required no batteries.

It took a long, long time for remotes to become common though:

According to the Consumer Electronics Association, it was 1985 before more televisions were sold with remotes than without. By the beginning of the twenty-first century, however, 99 percent of all television sets and 100 percent of all VCRs sold in the United States came with remote control devices, and infrared and digital technology had replaced Adler’s miniature ultrasonics. In 2000, the average household contained four remote controls.

One reason remotes didn’t catch on was that there were so few channels:

The original purpose of the remote control, as Zenith’s president put it at the time of its creation, was to “tune out annoying commercials.” But it was a federal regulation many years later that made the remote control the indispensable household object that it is today. The Federal Communications Commission?s 1972 “Open Skies” decision deregulating satellite communications allowed cable television to become a popular reality in the U.S., as it rapidly did. As one observer noted, “the only people who had an inarguable, demonstrable need for an RCD for their television before the 1970s were the debilitated.” But with the rapid increase in television channel offerings, we all needed the remote simply to navigate television’s many new options. Cable television dramatically increased the range of choices, but it was the remote control, according to James Walker and Robert Bellamy, which “made it easier for viewers to be choosy.”

Do Hybrids Have Legs?

Friday, January 14th, 2005

Do Hybrids Have Legs? looks at Honda’s new Accord Hybrid:

No backdoor effort to give Honda more “eco-cover,” the Accord Hybrid is, in fact, Honda’s fastest, most powerful production car, combining its superb 3-liter, 240 horsepower V-6 with a12-kilowatt electric motor. Unlike the Prius, in which the gasoline engine and the electric motor more or less share tasks, the Accord employs the electric motor mainly to enhance the gas engine’s performance. Honda calls this IMA or “integrated motor assist,” boosting the car up to 255 horsepower.

Although the hybrid’s $30,000 base price is $3,000 more than the standard Accord V-6, the car is loaded with goodies like leather seats and XM satellite radio mated to a 120-watt sound system.

Honda claims 37 miles per gallon on the highway and 30 mpg in city driving — whopping 38 and 23 percent improvements over the regular Accord V-6. The economy is delivered not just from the electric motor but from the use of “variable cylinder management,” Honda’s name for a system that shuts down three of the Accord’s cylinders at cruising speeds