High Doses of Vitamins Ward Off Alzheimer’s

Tuesday, January 20th, 2004

Very interesting. High Doses of Vitamins Ward Off Alzheimer’s:

The 4,740 participants in the five-year study were aged 65 or older when the study began in 1995.

In the first phase of the study, 200 cases of Alzheimer’s were diagnosed, and those who had been taking vitamin supplements were at a 78 percent lower risk of the disease than those who had not. At the end of the study, another 104 participants had developed the disease, and the risk factor was 64 percent lower among supplement users.

Taking a lower-dose multivitamin or one of the two vitamin supplements taken alone did not have the protective effect.

Taking a lower-dose multivitamin or one of the two vitamin supplements taken alone did not have the protective effect. Very interesting. What I find almost shocking — having read quite a few news stories about nutritional-supplement studies — is that they were willing to say the following:

High-dose vitamin supplements are rarely toxic and could have wide-ranging health benefits, the report said.

Brazil Arrests U.S. Pilot Over Gesture

Thursday, January 15th, 2004

When I traveled to Brazil last year, I needed to get a $100 visa — as a result of the of “reciprocity” between Brazil and the US. You see, the US charges Brazilians $100 for a visa to enter the country.

Now the US is requiring fingerprints and a photo to enter the country, and, in reciprocity, Brazil is requiring the same of Americans. One American Airlines pilot objected. Brazil Arrests U.S. Pilot Over Gesture explains:

An American Airlines pilot was arrested by federal police Wednesday after making an obscene gesture when being photographed at the airport as part of a newly imposed entry requirement for U.S. citizens, federal police said
[...]
The pilot, Dale Robbin Hirsh, lifted his middle finger while undergoing the new security process, said Francisco Baltazar da Silva, chief of Sao Paulo’s federal police.

The pilot was taken to a federal courthouse, where he could be charged with showing disrespect to authorities, a crime in Brazil punishable by between six months and two years in jail or a fine, da Silva said. He could also be deported without any further legal action.

He could be charged with showing disrespect to authorities, a crime in Brazil punishable by between six months and two years in jail or a fine.

On Monday, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva asked President Bush (news – web sites) to drop the visa requirement for Brazilians entering the United States, while Brazil’s Foreign Ministry said the requirement could lead to a souring between the two nations.

Incidentally, I have a Brazilian jiu-jitsu instructor still in Brazil for the holidays who won’t be back as soon as he planned, because of visa problems. (Of course, none of the Brazilians I know do anything on time…)

But in Rio de Janeiro, tourism officials are trying to console American tourists arriving at the airport by treating them to samba music and dancers and giving them flowers, jewelry and T-shirts.

I also have some American jiu-jitsu buddies in Brazil. (Or maybe they just got back.) I’ll have to ask them if they got flowers and t-shirts.

Frito-Lay Introduces Low-Carb Chips

Thursday, January 15th, 2004

Frito-Lay Introduces Low-Carb Chips:

Snack foods company Frito-Lay said Wednesday it is introducing two new types of chips to capitalize on the popularity of low-carbohydrate diets.

The two new products, called Doritos Edge and Tostitos Edge, will cut out 60 percent of the carbohydrates that are in regular Doritos and Tostitos.

Frito-Lay, a unit of PepsiCo Inc., has already eliminated trans fats from its brands. Trans fats, which give products a longer shelf life, have been linked to heart disease.

The new chips will use soy proteins and fiber as substitute ingredients, the company said in a statement. Both Tostitos Edge and Doritos Edge will have six net carbohydrates, 10 grams of protein, and three grams of fiber.

Naturally, these will taste just like their normal chips…

UCLA Team Claims It Can Predict Earthquakes

Tuesday, January 13th, 2004

In UCLA Team Claims It Can Predict Earthquakes, Randall Parker cites a UC NewsWire article that claims that earthquakes can now be predicted months in advance:

‘Earthquake prediction is called the Holy Grail of earthquake science, and has been considered impossible by many scientists,’ said Keilis-Borok, a professor in residence in UCLA’s Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics and department of earth and space sciences. ‘It is not impossible.’

‘We have made a major breakthrough, discovering the possibility of making predictions months ahead of time, instead of years, as in previously known methods,’ Keilis-Borok said. ‘This discovery was not generated by an instant inspiration, but culminates 20 years of multinational, interdisciplinary collaboration by a team of scientists from Russia, the United States, Western Europe, Japan and Canada.’

The team includes experts in pattern recognition, geodynamics, seismology, chaos theory, statistical physics and public safety. They have developed algorithms to detect precursory earthquake patterns.

The real news story is that Keilis-Borok, the lead scientist, is 82 years old:

Kellis-Borok apparently took on earthquake prediction to give him something worthwhile to do in his old age. Incredible.

Ritalin Exposure May Increase Risk Of Depression, Alter Reward Sensitivity

Tuesday, January 13th, 2004

In Ritalin Exposure May Increase Risk Of Depression, Alter Reward Sensitivity, Randall Parker reports on the long-term effects of the popular ADD drug — on rats. More interesting is his secondary point:

What is amazing about this is the scale on which doctors and parents have embarked upon a massive experiment that may cause a variety of lasting changes on cognitive function. As of 1995 2.8 percent of American children were on methylphenidate (Ritalin) and that represented a sharp increase from 1.2% in 1990. Methylphenidate use is also up in Canada and some other Western countries in about the same time period.

If anyone doubts whether, when it becomes possible to do so, humans will be willing to reengineer their minds or the minds of their offspring consider the use of nervous system-altering drugs on children today. Look at how willing parents and authority figures are to embrace treatments that are not sufficiently well understood and which probably have a number of lasting effects on cognitive function thoroughout the rest of the lives of the children who are given methylphenidate and other nervous system drugs.

Health Journal

Tuesday, January 13th, 2004

Somewhere along the way, softdrink vending machines took hold in America’s (and Canada’s) schools. Now schools are trying to replace the softdrinks with healthier fare — that isn’t always healthier. From the Wall Street Journal‘s recent Health Journal:

In New York, carbonated drinks have been replaced by 100% juice versions of Snapple, which actually have more calories and grams of sugar than regular soda.

Most experts agree that while sports and juice-flavored drinks may sound healthier, they are simply noncarbonated versions of sodas — often with water and high-fructose corn syrup as the first two ingredients. Even 100% juice drinks often are made with concentrates of pear, apple and grape and in the end are really just water and sugar.

Why do kids drink so many sugary drinks?

“One of the first questions a new parent will ask a pediatrician is ‘when can I start juice?’” says Robert Murray, professor of pediatrics at the Columbus Children’s Hospital and principal author of the American Academy of Pediatrics statement. “We’ve really created the habit of dealing with thirst with sweetened drinks.”

What happens when schools replace the softdrinks with healthier fare?

But schools can stock vending machines with healthier fare without losing income. When Iowa City schools added milk to vending machines, overall sales increased 42%, while soda sales dropped 58%. Vista Unified School District in San Diego limited sodas to 20% of vending slots instead of the previous 66%. The machines now offer bagels, yogurt, nuts, cheese and crackers and fresh fruit as well as water, milk and 100% juice. During the first year, Vista High School generated $200,000 more in sales than the previous year.

The ‘We’ Word: And the Tyranny of the Majority

Friday, January 9th, 2004

The Australian Policy magazine’s The ‘We’ Word: And the Tyranny of the Majority comes with the following subtitle:

False collectives — what Americans call ‘weasel words’ — poison the language we use to talk about public affairs by cobbling together spurious majorities, writes Roger Kerr.

Perhaps that sounds perfectly reasonable to an Australian audience. Weasel words? It turns out that the article is quoting Hayek, an Austrian, describing how a word like “social” can be “applied indiscriminately to a huge number of nouns in a way that undermines their original meanings and recruits them into a collectivist cause”:

. . . it has in fact become the most harmful instance of what, after Shakespeare’s ‘I can suck melancholy out of a song, as a weasel sucks eggs’ (As You Like It, II, 5), some Americans call a ‘weasel word’. As a weasel is alleged to be able to empty an egg without leaving a visible sign, so can these words deprive of content any term to which they are prefixed while seemingly leaving them untouched. A weasel word is used to draw the teeth from a concept one is obliged to employ, but from which one wishes to eliminate all implications that challenge one’s ideological premises.

From Here to Eternity

Friday, January 9th, 2004

In From Here to Eternity, Jon Meacham looks at Victor Davis Hanson’s latest book, Ripples of Battle. But first he tips his hat to An Autumn of War:

On Tuesday, September 11, 2001, horrified by the news from the East Coast, Victor Davis Hanson began writing. A classicist and farmer in California, Hanson kept at it everyday through that momentous fall, ultimately publishing his thoughts and pieces in a small but highly influential book entitled An Autumn of War. The collection’s overarching (and, to me, convincing) theme: that war is an inherent element of the human condition and that the wisest course in a fallen world–one in which evil can strike out at innocents, without warning, on a brilliantly blue morning, widowing spouses and orphaning children–is to appreciate the tragic quality of life. Once we accept that the world will almost always fall short of our expectations, that man is not perfectible, and that answering violence with violence is sometimes the moral thing to do, we can start to make ourselves, our children, and our culture more secure. Hanson’s book was read at the highest levels of the Bush administration.

I’ll probably have to read both books.

The Rise of the Indian Rope Trick

Friday, January 9th, 2004

Michael Holland reviews The Rise of the Indian Rope Trick, by Peter Lamont, a book that demonstrates “how people will believe a thing is true, despite all rational evidence to the contrary, indeed despite outright denials of its existence, if it is repeated that it is true often enough”:

It goes like this: “The fakir drew from under his knee a ball of grey twine. Taking the loose end between his teeth, he, with a quick upward motion, tossed the ball into the air. Instead of coming back to him, it kept on going up and up until out of sight and there remained only the long swaying end… [A] boy about six-years-old… walked over to the twine and began climbing up it… the boy disappeared when he had reached a point 30 or 40ft from the ground… a moment later, the twine disappeared.”

This purported to be an eye-witness account of the trick given by a couple of American travellers returning from the mysterious Orient. Within a few months, however, the editor of the Tribune was forced to come clean and admit that not only was the account bogus but that the travellers did not even exist.

Too late. By then, the account had been reprinted in newspapers and journals around the world and the denial scarcely caused a ripple. Over the next half century, the story of the rope trick gathered momentum and, more to the point, wonderful embellishments. By the mid-1930s, other “eye-witnesses” reported seeing the “fakir” pick up a knife and scramble up the “rope” after the boy. After a while, bloody limbs, a torso and, finally, a head would drop to the ground, followed by the fakir who would reassemble the pieces and the original boy would spring smiling back to life.

With each new account receiving graphic treatment in the popular (and more arcane) prints, millions believed in the trick, while thousands more tried to explain it. But they were all completely and absolutely wrong. The trick was not even an illusion; it simply did not and had never existed.

Poor Man’s Hero

Thursday, January 8th, 2004

In Poor Man’s Hero, Reason magazine interviews Johan Norberg, Swedish author of In Defense of Global Capitalism. Norberg makes a number of interesting points:

Look at Vietnam, which I visited recently. It had the benefit that when the Communists took power there, they actually implemented their ideas. They collectivized agriculture and they destroyed private property, which meant that in the mid-1980s people were starving there. The Communists’ own ideas managed to do what the American bombs never did: destroy communism. In the wake of such failure, the government began to look for other examples, and they saw that Taiwan had succeeded by globalizing. The Communists in China were liberalizing trade and ownership laws and were seeing fast progress. The contrast is especially clear on the Korean peninsula. It’s the same population, with the same culture, just having two very different political and economic systems. In 50 years, one of them went from hunger and poverty to Southern European living standards. The other one is still starving.

I particularly like this point:

Sweatshops are a natural stage of development. We had sweatshops in Sweden in the late 19th century. We complained about Japanese sweatshops 40 years ago. You had them here. In fact, you still do in some places. One mistake that Western critics of globalization make is that they compare their current working standards to those in the developing world: “Look, I’m sitting in a nice, air-conditioned office. Why should people in Vietnam really have to work in those terrible factories?” But you’ve got to compare things with the alternatives that people actually have in their own countries. The reason why their workplace standards and wages are generally lower is the lack of productivity, the lack of infrastructure, the lack of machinery, and so on. If workers were paid U.S. wages in Vietnam, employers wouldn’t be able to hire them. The alternative for most workers would be to go back to agriculture, where they could work longer hours and get irregular and much lower wages.
[...]
When I was in Vietnam, I interviewed workers about their dreams and aspirations. The most common wish was that Nike, one of the major targets of the anti-globalization movement, would expand so that a worker’s relatives could get a job with the company.

I’ve seen this point before:

Places without natural resources, such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, have developed relatively broad-based economies, where countries rich in oil or minerals often have not. The broader an economy is, the more wealth and income are spread around. The best thing that could happen to the Arab world would be for them to run out of oil. Then they’d have to open up to trade, and a small number of people wouldn’t be in control all of the wealth, as is the case in Saudi Arabia.

Returning to the idea of developing versus developed economies:

Many environmentalists care about green forests, clean air, clean water, and so on. What they don’t appreciate is that attitude is itself a result of industrial development. In our countries, people didn’t care about these things 100 years ago. Preferences shift when you can feed your children and give them an education. That’s when you begin to care about these sorts of things.

So, Scrooge was right after all

Wednesday, January 7th, 2004

So, Scrooge was right after all addresses the economics of gift giving:

Conventional economics teaches that gift giving is irrational. The satisfaction or “utility” a person derives from consumption is determined by their personal preferences. But no one understands your preferences as well as you do.

So when I give up $50 worth of utility to buy a present for you, the chances are high that you’ll value it at less than $50. If so, there’s been a mutual loss of utility. The transaction has been inefficient and “welfare reducing”, thus making it irrational. As an economist would put it, “unless a gift that costs the giver p dollars exactly matches the way in which the recipient would have spent the p dollars, the gift is suboptimal”.

This astonishing intellectual breakthrough was first formulated in 1993 by Joel Waldfogel, an economics professor now at the University of Pennsylvania, in his seminal paper, The Deadweight Loss of Christmas.

You’ll excuse me if I don’t accept Waldfogel’s paper as the first time “this astonishing intellectual breakthrough was…formulated.” It’s still good stuff though:

The guru Waldfogel has recently refined his calculations on Christmas’s deadweight cost, using a new survey to estimate that, per dollar spent, people value their own purchases 18 per cent more than they value items they receive as gifts. (Being a rigorous scientist, the prof has carefully excluded any allowance for the “sentimental value” of gifts.)

Waldfogel’s case is bolstered by the news that, according to a US survey conducted by American Express, 28 per cent of respondents admitted to engaging in “gift recycling”.

I agree with Bradley Ruffle and Todd Kaplan: gift giving makes sense in cases where the giver’s knowledge of where to find something the recipient wants is greater than the recipient’s own knowledge. Or if the giver is in a position to get it cheaper:

This emphasis on the hassle involved in finding suitable presents helps explain why, even though it’s regarded as poor form to give money, parents are more likely to resort to money as their children get older. The parents’ search costs rise as they become less certain what their kids would like, whereas the kids’ search costs fall as they become more independent. This theory also helps explain why people who go on trips return with presents. Their gifts tend to be things that are dearer or harder to find at home. Even so, it’s hard to believe the theory accounts for more than a fraction of gifts.

Iraqi War Too Long? Some comparisons.

Wednesday, January 7th, 2004

I got a kick out of this Command Post Op Ed, Iraqi War Too Long? Some comparisons:

It took less time to take Iraq than it took Janet Reno to take the Branch Davidian compound. That was a 51-day operation. In fact, it took less time to take Iraq than it took to count the votes in Florida!

It took less time to find Saddam’s sons in Iraq than it took Hillary Clinton to find the Rose Law Firm billing records.

It took less time for the 3rd Infantry Division and the Marines to destroy the Medina Republican Guard than it took Teddy Kennedy to call the police after his Oldsmobile sank at Chappaquiddick.

The Man Behind Bin Laden

Wednesday, January 7th, 2004

The Man Behind Bin Laden provides a biography of Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the other Islamist mastermind. What most caught my eye though was this description of the community he grew up in (or just outside of):

Five miles south of the chaos of Cairo is a quiet middle-class suburb called Maadi. A consortium of Egyptian Jewish financiers, intending to create a kind of English village amid the mango and guava plantations and Bedouin settlements on the eastern bank of the Nile, began selling lots in the first decade of the twentieth century. The developers regulated everything, from the height of the garden fences to the color of the shutters on the grand villas that lined the streets. They dreamed of an Egypt that was safe and clean and orderly, and also secular and ethnically diverse — though still married to British notions of class. They planted eucalyptus trees to repel flies and mosquitoes, and gardens to perfume the air with the fragrance of roses and jasmine and bougainvillea. Many of the early settlers were British military officers and civil servants, whose wives started garden clubs and literary salons; they were followed by Jewish families, who by the end of the Second World War made up nearly a third of Maadi’s population. After the war, Maadi evolved into a community of expatriate Europeans, American businessmen and missionaries, and a certain type of Egyptian — one who spoke French at dinner and followed the cricket matches.

Gamers Make Good Soldiers

Wednesday, January 7th, 2004

NPR’s All Things Considered show from a few days ago (January 5, 2004) had a commentary piece called “Gamers Make Good Soldiers” in which tarot-reading, aging gamer-girl Angeli Primlani described some of the baby-faced soldiers who buy roleplaying games at the “Something Wicked” bookstore. They tell her that the Army is recruiting at roleplaying game conventions — and she describes that as “inexpressably smart”. Where better to find “strategically minded young gentlemen ready for adventure”? How many of them can do a push-up or a pull-up though?

Kucinich Shows Pie Chart on Radio Debate

Wednesday, January 7th, 2004

This story speaks for itself. From Kucinich Shows Pie Chart on Radio Debate:

Federal spending was the topic and Democratic presidential hopeful Dennis Kucinich came prepared with a pie chart to argue his point about a bloated Pentagon budget.

But although many listened to Tuesday’s presidential debate, few could see the Ohio congressman’s prop.

The debate was broadcast only on National Public Radio.

As Kucinich challenged Democratic front-runner Howard Dean for refusing to acknowledge that the Pentagon budget needs to be cut, debate moderator Neal Conan of NPR interrupted.

‘Congressman Kucinich is holding up a pie chart, which is not truly effective on radio,’ Conan told his listeners.

Kucinich was not deterred.

‘Well, it’s effective if Howard can see it,’ he replied.