What could you do to affect British policy, strategy, tactics and equipment?

Sunday, April 7th, 2019

Anthony Williams has written an alternative-history sci-fi book, The Foresight War, which sounds like something I just might have to get:

What if you went to sleep as usual in 2004 and woke up in 1934? What if you had vital knowledge about the forthcoming Second World War, and could prove that you came from the future? What could you do to affect British policy, strategy, tactics and equipment? How might the course of the conflict be changed?

And what if there was another throwback from the future — and he was working for the enemy?

The novel follows the story of these two ‘throwbacks’ as they pit their wits against each other. A very different Second World War rages across Europe, the Mediterranean, Russia, the North Atlantic and the Pacific, until its shocking conclusion.

[...]

I started to write The Foresight War in order to put down on paper — and thereby exorcise — thoughts which had been buzzing around in my head for years concerning the Second World War. As my primary interest is in military technology, ideas about how this aspect of the war might have developed differently formed the core of the novel. However, in order to turn these concepts into fiction the book clearly had to contain more, so I spent a lot of time researching the tactics, strategies, geography, events and key personalities. The structure of the novel was determined by the principal historical areas and phases of the conflict, as I did not want to depart too much from these. Once the scene was set, the story to a great extent wrote itself, occasionally veering off in directions I hadn’t expected. The main problem was the conclusion, which I didn’t decide on until just before I started the final chapter.

[...]

To sum up: if you are interested in the “what ifs” of World War 2, with particular emphasis on technology and tactics, you will probably enjoy this book. If you’re more interested in how being thrown back into the past might affect the personalities involved, you probably won’t.

As direct and open as Americans in their dealings

Sunday, April 7th, 2019

Ordnance Went Up Front by Roy F. DunlapThe New Zealand division was just about the best infantry outfit in the British Eighth Army, Dunlap explains, and was used all the way from Alamein to Tripoli:

The Maoris, or native New Zealanders formed one large battalion of the Division. They are a Polynesian race, similar to our Hawaiians, and are accepted as complete equals by the New Zealanders of English origin. There is absolutely no color bar whatsoever, and intermarriage is very common between the races. Education is compulsory, therefore all get the same start in life on that score. The Maoris, generally pronounced “Mowries” are as direct and open as Americans in their dealings. They come all sizes and cannot be typed. Some are tall, aquiline-featured, others squat, oriental-faced. Some are almost black, others almost white.

The stories of the wars in the early days between English colonists and Maori warriors read like tales of the days of chivalry. Once a British commander retreated from a battlefield rather than continue fighting and destroy a Maori force who had only hand weapons but who formally invited the English to fight it out. In New Zealand for once England came up with the unbeatable colonization formula — get ‘em to join you. So now if a Maori does not like his taxes, he is stuck; the tax collector is probably a Maori too.

Shooting did not bother the skulking prowlers

Saturday, April 6th, 2019

Ordnance Went Up Front by Roy F. DunlapIn Egypt, every outfit more-or-less guarded its own area and shops, Dunlap explains — not against the Axis, but against the Arabs:

At that they did dismantle and steal a disabled Grant tank once. A Wog could and would steal anything he could lift or get a camel to carry. Tires and food were worth their weight in money in the Egyptian markets, so they were constantly watched. Shooting did not bother the skulking prowlers at all, unless the bullet connected.

Provide room for a long ogive

Friday, April 5th, 2019

Anthony Williams explains the importance of bullet shape:

A very basic refresher: the rate at which a bullet slows down in the air is determined by the ballistic coefficient; the higher the BC, the lower the velocity loss and the further the bullet will fly. That is, “other things being equal” — always an important qualification because there are so many variables. The BC is calculated from two other numbers, the sectional density (SD) and the form factor (FF). The SD is simple to calculate as it measures the bullet weight compared with the calibre; a 100 grain 30 cal bullet will have half the SD of a 200 grain 30 cal. The higher the SD, the better for long-range performance. The FF measures the shape of the bullet; it is not simple to calculate and its effect varies with velocity, but at a basic level it’s really common sense — a bullet with a long pointed nose, or ogive, is likely to have a better FF than one with a blunt ogive, especially at supersonic velocities. It’s the FF that I want to talk about.

I looked around for examples of bullets which are as alike as possible except in their shape in order to illustrate the importance of the FF, and found the two .50 cal bullets from Barnes Bullets shown on the screen. They are both made from solid brass to the same standards and both weigh the same — 750 grains. Barnes helpfully provides the BCs for this pair, so it’s a simple matter to feed the data into a standard ballistic calculator in order to work out the effect of the different shape. The results of this are interesting.

Barnes .50-Caliber Bullets

There are various ways of assessing the effective range of ammunition, one of them being the impact energy of the bullet on the target. The long bullet shown here has the same impact energy at 2,000 metres as the shorter bullet has at just over 1,400 metres. By this measure, that amounts to a 40% increase in effective range from using the long bullet rather than the shorter one — and it’s free! No extra ammunition weight, no extra recoil. The catch is, of course that the shorter bullet has been designed to keep within the official maximum overall length of the .50 Browning cartridge, so that the ammunition can be loaded into magazines and will function in gun actions; loaded with the long bullet, the cartridge can only be used in specialised single-shot rifles.

This problem of a short cartridge overall length, which prevents the most efficient, low-drag bullets being used, applies to at least some degree to all NATO rifle and machine gun ammunition. The long-range performance of all of these rounds is inherently limited by their inability to use such bullets. Their bullets all have quite short ogives which results in poor FFs and therefore poor BCs. The only way to improve the BC of bullets for these rounds is to use heavier bullets to increase the SD, but that puts up ammunition weight and recoil and results in a lower muzzle velocity and steeper trajectory.

NATO Small Arms Ammunition

The .338 Lapua Magnum has become the international standard long-range sniping round, but it was designed for bullets of up to 250 grains and doesn’t allow enough space for well-shaped versions of the 300 grain bullets which are becoming increasingly popular. It is interesting that General Dynamics selected the relatively obscure .338 Norma Magnum for their Lightweight Medium Machine Gun. I have heard various reasons why they chose the Norma round but one is incontrovertible; the shorter Norma case permits the use of bullets with a longer ogive, giving it the potential for a superior long-range performance.

The next slide is where things get really interesting. The standard 7.62mm NATO cartridge and its M80 bullet are shown at the top. The other pair illustrate one of my favourite examples of the merits of unconventional thinking. The Voss bullet was designed by a German ballistician, Dr Gunther Voss, in the early 1950s, when he was working for the Spanish CETME organisation. He wanted to develop a cartridge which combined a long range with a recoil light enough to permit controllable automatic rifle fire. He reasoned that for the recoil to be kept low, the bullet would have to be as light as possible, but as that would give it a poor sectional density, to achieve a long range would require giving it the best possible form factor. So his bullet is made of solid aluminium with a copper jacket over most of its length. It actually weighs 106.5 grains, which is less than the stumpy little .30 Carbine bullet, but the shape is so good that the BC is only a little lower than the 7.62 M80 which weighs 147 grains. Because the bullet is so light, it doesn’t need much propellant to drive it at a velocity comparable with the 7.62, so it uses a smaller cartridge case, saving yet more weight and further reducing recoil.

Bullet Design M80 versus Voss

By the few accounts I’ve found, Voss’s CETME round did what it was designed to do. In effect, it provided 7.62 NATO performance in a package that was similar in weight and recoil to the short 7.62mm Kalashnikov round. One potential drawback was lack of penetration, but it was claimed to be able to penetrate a contemporary steel helmet at 1,100 metres. I suspect that it might not have done so well against thicknesses of material, such as timber. Unfortunately for Voss, by the time it was ready to roll it was 1953 and the 7.62 NATO round had an unstoppable momentum, flattening all rivals in its path. The irony is that the US Army had wanted a long-range, .30-calibre cartridge with a recoil light enough for controllable automatic fire in a light rifle. The Voss design came very much closer to delivering that than did the 7.62 NATO, purely because of the superb shape of the bullet.

In the early 1970s something very similar was tried by the US Army with the 5.56mm FABRL, shown alongside the contemporary 5.56mm M193. FABRL originally stood for Frankford Arsenal and the Ballistic Research Laboratory, but it was later given the sexier meaning of Future Ammunition for Burst Rifle Launch. The aim was to reduce the recoil of the contemporary 5.56mm ammunition to make the rifles more controllable in burst fire. To achieve this the bullet weight was reduced from 55 to 37 grains by making it from steel with a plastic core, yet the much improved FF meant that the BC remained the same. Little more than half the propellant was needed to match the muzzle velocity of the M193 so the cartridge case could be shortened to leave room for the long bullet, and the chamber pressure was so low (39,000 psi instead of 52,000) that the use of an aluminium case became feasible, leading to an overall reduction in cartridge weight of 50%. The trajectory remained the same, but the recoil impulse was reduced by 35% (equivalent to a reduction in free recoil energy of over 60%).

Bullet Design M193 versus FABRL

The lesson to draw from this is not that all bullets should be made of aluminium or plastic — the two I’ve shown are clearly extreme examples — but that a well-shaped bullet gives you options you don’t have with a typical NATO bullet shape. You can keep the bullet weight the same, and enjoy an improved long-range performance; or if you don’t need to extend the range, you can reduce the bullet weight while still keeping the same BC as the NATO bullet, thereby reducing cartridge weight. If you reduce the bullet weight, you have another choice: you can leave the propellant load and cartridge case the same, and enjoy a higher muzzle velocity and flatter trajectory; or you can keep the MV the same and reduce the propellant load and size of the cartridge case, as in both examples I’ve described, gaining further reductions in recoil and ammunition weight. These are all great choices to have, but you only get them if you adopt a very well-shaped bullet, which means that the cartridge specification has to provide room for using bullets with a long ogive.

In case you didn’t already know — or didn’t deduce it from context — an ogive is a roundly tapered end, like the “point” of a bullet:

In ballistics or aerodynamics, an ogive is a pointed, curved surface mainly used to form the approximately streamlined nose of a bullet or other projectile, reducing air resistance or the drag of air. In fact the French word ogive can be translated as “nose cone” or “warhead”.

The traditional or secant ogive is a surface of revolution of the same curve that forms a Gothic arch; that is, a circular arc, of greater radius than the diameter of the cylindrical section (“shank”), is drawn from the edge of the shank until it intercepts the axis.

If this arc is drawn so that it meets the shank at zero angle (that is, the distance of the centre of the arc from the axis, plus the radius of the shank, equals the radius of the arc), then it is called a tangent or spitzer ogive. This is a very common ogive for high velocity (supersonic) rifle bullets.

The sharpness of this ogive is expressed by the ratio of its radius to the diameter of the cylinder; a value of one half being a hemispherical dome, and larger values being progressively more pointed. Values of 4 to 10 are commonly used in rifles, with 6 being the most common.

Another common ogive for bullets is the elliptical ogive. This is a curve very similar to the spitzer ogive, except that the circular arc is replaced by an ellipse defined in such a way that it meets the axis at exactly 90°. This gives a somewhat rounded nose regardless of the sharpness ratio. An elliptical ogive is normally described in terms of the ratio of the length of the ogive to the diameter of the shank. A ratio of one half would be, once again, a hemisphere. Values close to 1 are common in practice. Elliptical ogives are mainly used in pistol bullets.

Missiles and aircraft generally have much more complex ogives, such as the von Kármán ogive.

Everything happens in Egypt

Friday, April 5th, 2019

Ordnance Went Up Front by Roy F. DunlapDunlap managed to fit in some rifle practice in Egypt:

Three hundred meter matches were lined up, so we practiced at 300 yards on standard British short range targets most of the time. The scoring rings are fairly close to those of our “A” target, but that is all. This is the camouflage target—top half a dull blue, bottom sand color; top half of bull is black, bottom, gray. It symbolizes a man looking over a skyline; the black is his head, in helmet, the gray his face, the blue the sky, the sand or buff color the earth. You go gradually blind looking at it; or rather, for the bull. I have to admit it is a more practical paper mark than our black and white job, but it is not nearly as much fun to shoot at! That little half-moon of black is hard to see even in bright light. Paradoxically, twice at Abassyia we had to hold up shooting until a dense fog cleared. Everything happens in Egypt.

Once we shot on 300-meter targets, at 300 meters, and on one string of six shots I set myself a high score of 56 out of 60. This is impossible, as the gun, ammunition and holding were not that good. One of those freak groups which pop up every once in awhile. Four consecutive strings like that would break the world record by 14 points, or maybe it is 17.

They are by no means jungle savages

Thursday, April 4th, 2019

Ordnance Went Up Front by Roy F. DunlapThe war brought all kinds of people together, Dunlap explains:

Sudanese are rated higher than the paler Arabic Egyptian by the Europeans in the Near East, and they are popular as waiters and general servants. As a people they are much cleaner and less diseased, and are a prouder race. Some have become wealthy business men in the cities. They are by no means jungle savages. The British respect them highly and rate them almost on a par with the Ghurka as fighting men. As Kipling wrote of “Fuzzy-Wuzzy,” he was the only man who ever “broke a British Square.” His hair is not so kinky and he does not wear it in the fuzzy-head fashion any more. The English have educated them as best they could and all except the back-country boys could read and write Arabic. One young fellow came up to me with an English-language newspaper once to ask the meaning of the word “counter-attack” — he was reading the news to the rest of his gang. Turned out he could read, write and speak Arabic, French and English, but had trouble with the English.

I do not know if their national sport is still killing lions with spears but they know how to handle rifles. Both the Arabs and the Sudanese seemed to understand weapons very well. We used to call one of them over every once in awhile and give him a gun of some sort to look over while we looked him over. I remember once an M1 rifle came through somehow and we let some of the natives see it. One of them snapped back the operating handle, looked in the chamber and receiver, worked the safety a couple of times, asked what the gas cylinder was and handed it back. He knew how it worked, that was all. No awe, no surprise, no nothin’, except he would like it a little lighter; so would I.

When a batch of American Negro soldiers came through I brought several down to the warehouse to pick up their rations and witness their reaction to the Sudanese and vice versa. The Americans went pop-eyed at the rather sinister-looking boys and definitely disclaimed all relationship on their part. As one of them put it, “They may belong to mah race, but thazzall! I ain’t like them!” One of the Sudanese came to me and asked how come. I told him in Arabic that they were Americans whose ancestors had been Africans. He said “Why?” That being involved, I forcefully requested him to start throwing the Spam on the truck.

The C.L.T. has gone from concept to killer relatively quickly

Wednesday, April 3rd, 2019

Precision glide bombs are not a new technology, so the success of precision weapons in the first Gulf War should have led to a new generation much sooner than just a decade ago:

The C.L.T. has gone from concept to killer relatively quickly by defense industry standards. Developed in 2009 as a joint project between Special Operations Command and Systima Technologies, its first use in combat was in November 2010, according to Lt. Phillip Chitty, a spokesman for Special Operations Command. Chitty declined to provide additional details of that airstrike, saying that “the location and scenario are classified.” Systima Technologies did not respond to numerous requests for comment.

The types of weapons the Pentagon has tested with the launch tube offer some insight into how Special Operations forces plan to fight in the future. In interviews with The Times, military officials said they placed a premium on long-range silent weapons with smaller explosive warheads over traditional airdropped bombs. By removing solid rocket motors and adding aerofoil wings to produce lift, these “glide bombs” use gravity to reach their targets without making any noise. Contracting documents reviewed by The Times indicate that Special Operations Command required one such munition to weigh approximately 50 pounds, take no more than one minute to reach targets four nautical miles away, hit moving targets traveling up to 70 miles per hour and either burst in the air above the target or from contact with the target. According to those documents, only one weapon currently meets those requirements: the GBU-69 Small Glide Munition, made by Dynetics and dropped solely from C.L.T.s. This 60-pound glide bomb, which can be GPS-guided for stationary targets and laser-guided for moving targets, is a marked departure from weapons like the Hellfire missile.

Nearly two decades of nonstop combat has revealed the limitations of weapons like the Hellfire, which was originally designed to destroy tanks. Even though Hellfire’s warhead has been redesigned for use against combatants, when fired the missile still produces a sound that pilots say can tip off people on the ground, prompting them to flee. By contrast, the Small Glide Munition reportedly makes far less noise than a Hellfire missile. Dynetics says its range exceeds 20 nautical miles, which could allow for a gunship to drop the bomb far enough away that people on the ground would not even see or hear the plane. In June 2018, Dynetics received a $470 million “indefinite quantity” contract to supply Special Operations Command with GBU-69s. A spokeswoman said that Special Operations Command has ordered more than 2,000 so far.

Special Operations Command has also been firing a small guided missile called Griffin from its dispensers. It is similar to the Hellfire missile in design and function, but is only two-thirds as long, weighs two-thirds less and has a similarly sized warhead.

In its development of new munitions like the GBU-69, the military has also come up with new ways to launch them. As the war in Iraq ground on, the Marine Corps decided in 2008 to arm its KC-130J Hercules refueling aircraft and turn them into close air support gunships. The resulting program, the Hercules Airborne Weapons Kit, added Hellfire missiles under the wings and two rows of five C.L.T.s strapped to the planes’ cargo ramp. By 2012, the Navy refitted the left-side passenger door toward the rear of these cargo planes with pressure-sealed fittings that allowed crewmen to load two launch tubes inside the plane side by side and drop them through the bottom of the door. The Navy called this the “Derringer Door” after the double-barreled pocket pistol designed for easy concealability. In a further evolution, Air Force AC-130 gunships now have a modified tail ramp with similar pressure-sealed fittings that allow up to 10 tube-launched weapons to be dropped before reloading.

I have to think you could modify mortar bombs in a similar way. Perhaps the mortar would have to be spigot mortar to better accommodate the wings. The Russians are already fielding suppressed mortars, by the way.

Skillfully alternating largess and spreading out surpluses

Wednesday, April 3rd, 2019

< Ordnance Went Up Front by Roy F. DunlapDunlap’s QM job, working on the fruit delivery truck, turned into a gravy chain:

I usually had a good extra supply, which of course became the highest grade of trading stock. I was the mess sergeant’s friend, “The Man With The Stuff.” Steaks, pies, etc., came my way as long as I had a couple of extra crates of oranges to put out to whatever cook or mess sergeant was in line for promotion or just wanted to take good care of his boys. By skillfully alternating my largess and spreading out the surpluses everyone was happy and convinced he was doing better than the next outfit, so I did OK. Even after I lost the job I was welcome at most of the mess halls at any time, which is a record of some kind, mess sergeants being notoriously unfriendly to everybody below the rank of full colonel between meals.

Assessments go up in peacetime and down in combat

Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019

Anthony Williams notes that there appears to be a strong reliance on 5.56 mm weapons among modern militaries choosing their next-generation small arms:

I understand that these decisions have been based on assessments of the effective range of the 5.56 weapons. I have to say that I am wary of such analyses because I have observed a repeating pattern over the years: assessments of the effective range of 5.56 weapons go up in peacetime and down in combat.

Why is this? I suspect that it is because what is mainly studied in peacetime is the probability of incapacitation, which is (loosely) a combination of the hit probability and the wounding capability, compared with the weight of ammunition. As with the related concept of “stowed kills”, the outcomes tend to favour lighter ammunition. The problem is that this takes no account of other aspects of performance, especially barrier destruction and suppression — in both of which the 7.62 greatly outperforms the 5.56. Emeric Daniau of the DGA has been researching suppression by small arms fire, analysing published studies to devise a formula which fits with the reported results. One conclusion from this is that the suppressive effect of any given weight of 7.62 ammunition is substantially higher than that of the same weight of 5.56 ammunition at any range, despite the 7.62 weighing twice as much per round.

There were more useless high-ranking officers in Egypt than in England

Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019

Ordnance Went Up Front by Roy F. DunlapThere were more useless high-ranking officers in Egypt than in England, Dunlap thought, in 1943:

When we were working, we had to clean up the shop and get everything in order for one of these fast-walk inspections, taking at least two hours’ time and knocking about a half day’s work out of production. We really hated that, and for a couple of days after one of those exhibitions no one felt like working, feeling that there was really no point in extending ourselves if the officers could waste our time.

That management lesson might apply more generally.

Every Englishman had a machine gun

Monday, April 1st, 2019

< Ordnance Went Up Front by Roy F. DunlapDo not laugh at anything the British do or did concerning military rifles since the Boer War, Dunlap advises, because they very carefully studied and experimented and trained harder with rifles than any other nation in the world:

By 1914 the regular British infantry were the hottest riflemen in any army, constantly practicing and competing. The regulation course of rapid fire called for 15 shots per minute on a camouflaged target, but the higher ranking shots qualified at 25 shots a minute and could keep most of them where they aimed them. That is bolt handling.

[...]

What the British regular army did to the Kaiser’s boys in World War I is history. The Germans tried to go through the “Contemptibles” just once, and then reported to headquarters that every Englishman had a machine gun.

The English had developed a better cartridge by then:

Before that war England went accuracy-happy and designed their 1914 rifle, a true Mauser type, for a magnum 7mm or .276 caliber, to reach the then-high velocity of 2,900 FPS, evidently being influenced by the success of the .280 Ross cartridge which held all long-range records of the time. The war started while the new rifle was under field test, and of course they did not want to change calibers with the pressure of a war on, and the rifles were made in both England and the U. S. in .303 caliber Mk VII, and later, for the U. S. in .30-06, as our Model 1917. The development of the machine gun for infantry firepower in France reduced the rifle to a less important role, and the fast 10-shot Lee-Enfield was found completely adequate for trench warfare so the .276 caliber was shelved permanently and no more Pattern ‘14 rifles made after 1918 in either England or the U. S.

Play the awareness game

Sunday, March 31st, 2019

Greg Ellifritz suggests some situational awareness exercises:

The Awareness Game – I adapted this exercise from a similar one described in Jeff Cooper’s classic book Principles of Personal Defense. When out in public, you will undoubtedly encounter people with whom you are familiar. You will see friends, neighbors, co-workers, and associates whom you recognize. If you are truly aware of your surroundings, you will notice their presence before they notice you. When a friend walks up behind you and taps you on the shoulder or calls your name before you are aware of his presence, you are not fully aware of what is happening in your environment.

Look for Something Unique – When you are moving about in public, pick some type of object to look for. Articles of clothing work very well. Try to find people wearing red hats, denim jackets, or gold necklaces as examples. This exercise will force you to notice everyone around you. For optimal effectiveness, look for something that men wear, because most violent criminals are male. Looking for items such as wristwatches or rings also works very well because it will force you to look at people’s hands, the place where weapons are held and attacks are generated.

Commentary Driving – In the modern world, most of us spend far more time in our vehicles than we do walking. It is important that we not succumb to the tendency to see our cars as cocoons of steel and glass where we are completely isolated from the outside world. While it is sometimes comforting to turn up the music and become lost in our thoughts while driving, it is seldom safe to do so. A relatively high percentage of crimes are committed in or around vehicles.

In order to maintain a high level of awareness when driving, I recommend an exercise called “commentary driving” as described in the book Defensive Living written by my friends Ed Lovette and Dave Spaulding.

The exercise is simple. During your commute, take notice of your surroundings by forcing yourself to verbally describe everything that you see. Actually verbalize audibly what your eyes are seeing. It should sound something like: “There is a blue car on my left”… “The light is turning red”… “I see a man walking a dog on the right” and anything else you might notice. By putting words of description to your thoughts, you will process much more information than usual thereby making you more aware of your surroundings. I also find that this drill works well for keeping yourself awake on long nighttime drives.

Escape Routes – In addition to being aware of the presence of potentially predatory individuals and groups, everyone should also be aware of all possible options for escaping violent attacks. Set the alarm on your watch or phone to ring at random times throughout the day. Whenever your alarm goes off, look around and determine the best way to escape if you were attacked at that moment. Over time you will have developed escape routes for almost every location you visit on a regular basis. With enough repetition you will begin to look for escape routes and areas of safety as a routine part of your day.

Firearms trainer Tom Givens describes “awareness” as knowing who is around you and what those people are doing. That’s a simple and extremely useful definition. Instead of finding escape routes. you can use the same random alarm trick I mentioned above to ask yourself the “Givens Questions.” When your alarm goes off, look around and ask yourself “Who is around me and what are they doing?” If you can answer those questions, you have good situational awareness.

The average military man cannot hit much with any pistol

Sunday, March 31st, 2019

Ordnance Went Up Front by Roy F. DunlapBefore the war, Dunlap was a competitive rifle shooter:

The average military man cannot hit much with any pistol, and as a rule, the bigger the gun the less he hits. That is why Uncle called for the M1 carbine in the first place. In the hands of gunmasters such as Charles Askins, Jr. or Al Hemming or Harry Reeves the handgun is more deadly than the rifle is with the average soldier behind it. However, men like that are so scarce they cannot be counted in an army. The old claim of “the .45 knocks ‘em down if it hits ‘em in the arm or leg” carries no weight with anyone who has actually seen any bullet work on humans. Sometimes a .45 bullet may flatten a man with a minor wound, but I have known of Jap soldiers who absorbed a burst in the body from a Thompson and went down fighting. The .45 carries a lot of shocking power, it is true, but the point nearly every pistol argument misses is that a hit with any bullet above a .22 rim fire will slow a man enough from whatever he is doing—running away, running toward you, or shooting at you—to give you time to put in a fatal hit or hits. And I do not think anyone will argue that the smaller calibers are not easier for the unpracticed man to handle. A hit with a 9mm or .38 is 100% more effective than a miss with a .45, regardless of the wound it causes.

I would never trust my life to one

Saturday, March 30th, 2019

Ordnance Went Up Front by Roy F. DunlapDunlap’s opinion of the Germany “Luger” pistol doesn’t surprise me, but his thoughts on our own .45-caliber 1911 do not match modern opinions about modern 1911s:

I have two M’08 pistols and like them very well, but I have no respect for them. A lot of people — who usually prove not to know much about pistols as a rule — think the “Looger” the only handgun in the world. They are greatly impressed by the “different” outline, its “pointability,” the balance in the hand and the knobs and ramps on the rear end. It is different! And it must be good or those smart Germans would not have used it so long! True, the gun does lie in the hand very well, the grip is excellent, it does not feel heavy and it is an easy gun to shoot. Despite the powerful cartridge, recoil is scarcely felt. In the last two points are the great military virtues of the Luger — the average soldier, or officer, who in the vast majority of cases never gets enough practice with his hand and shoulder weapons to become even semi-skilled with them can pick up this pistol and come much closer to hitting his mark with it than with any other major military autoloading pistol.

A thousand times in the war I was asked “Which is better, a Luger or a Colt .45?” and I always answered that in my opinion it was a toss-up — with a Luger the average man is more likely to connect, but if he does not hit a vital spot he may not put the enemy down, and with a .45 he will put him down with a hit almost anywhere in the body or leg, but will probably miss completely if said enemy is over 10 feet away. I added that the Colt is more to be relied upon.

There is absolutely no question whatever about the Luger being easier to handle — I proved that to my own satisfaction, deliberately picking men who knew only the basic fundamentals of pistol shooting and having them fire both guns at different ranges. They got much better results with the German gun. The cartridge of course has some bearing on shooting beyond point-blank range, for the flatter trajectory of the 9mm allows a just average pistol shot like myself to become dangerous up to 200 yards, since it is not necessary to aim at the moon to get sufficient elevation, as with a .45 (I shot a match one in prewar years and become officially A Marksman, according to National Rifle Association rating; there is no lower rating).

However, there are a couple of things wrong with the Luger: first, and not very important from a military point of view, it is difficult to put a good trigger-pull on it; and second, very important, they are all very fussy about ammunition, as manufactured for military consumption. Having weak extraction, the cartridge case must be pretty high-grade for the gun to function properly. The brass must be good, not hard and not soft. Lugers positively will not handle steel-cased ammunition reliably and it was for this reason Germany made great efforts to produce substitute pistols, adopting the 1938 Walther, which will handle steel cases perfectly. I have tried the steel-cased ammunition, made expressly for the Luger pistol, in at least a half-dozen guns and it was rare that a gun would fire a complete magazine of eight cartridges without jamming, while brass cases gave no trouble unless dirty or out of shape.

[...]

The Luger can be classed as a “good” semi-automatic pistol, but there are several better ones. I would never trust my life to one, no matter how well it performs in practice, though the temptation is great, for the weapon is one of the most accurate types ever made.

Serial numbers on Lugers were deliberately confusing

Friday, March 29th, 2019

Ordnance Went Up Front by Roy F. DunlapWhile discussing the German “Luger” pistol, Dunlap brought up a point that surprised me:

Serial numbers on Lugers were deliberately confusing, as the Germans did not like to have people adding up numbers and estimating production figures, so they organized a code-series system, which is no military secret now, but which I have never completely solved.

This surprised me, because I’d read about the Germans failing to do just that with their tanks:

The statisticians had one key piece of information, which was the serial numbers on captured mark V tanks. The statisticians believed that the Germans, being Germans, had logically numbered their tanks in the order in which they were produced. And this deduction turned out to be right. It was enough to enable them to make an estimate of the total number of tanks that had been produced up to any given moment.

The basic idea was that the highest serial number among the captured tanks could be used to calculate the overall total. The German tanks were numbered as follows: 1, 2, 3N, where N was the desired total number of tanks produced. Imagine that they had captured five tanks, with serial numbers 20, 31, 43, 78 and 92. They now had a sample of five, with a maximum serial number of 92. Call the sample size S and the maximum serial number M. After some experimentation with other series, the statisticians reckoned that a good estimator of the number of tanks would probably be provided by the simple equation (M-1)(S+1)/S. In the example given, this translates to (92-1)(5+1)/5, which is equal to 109.2. Therefore the estimate of tanks produced at that time would be 109.

By using this formula, statisticians reportedly estimated that the Germans produced 246 tanks per month between June 1940 and September 1942. At that time, standard intelligence estimates had believed the number was far, far higher, at around 1,400. After the war, the allies captured German production records, showing that the true number of tanks produced in those three years was 245 per month, almost exactly what the statisticians had calculated, and less than one fifth of what standard intelligence had thought likely.